How the Internet, the Sharing Economy, and Reputational Feedback Mechanisms Solve the “Lemons Problem”
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Lemons, Market Shutdowns and Learning
Lemons, Market Shutdowns and Learning Pablo Kurlat ∗ MIT Job Market Paper November 2009 Abstract I study a dynamic economy featuring adverse selection in financial markets. Investment is undertaken by borrowing-constrained entrepreneurs. They sell their past projects to finance new ones, but asymmetric information about project quality creates a lemons problem. The magnitude of this friction responds to aggregate shocks, amplifying the responses of asset prices and investment. Indeed, negative shocks can lead to a complete shutdown in financial markets. I then introduce learning from past transactions. This makes the degree of informational asymmetry endogenous and makes the liquidity of assets depend on the experience of market participants. Market downturns lead to less learning, worsening the future adverse selection problem. As a result, transitory shocks can create highly persistent responses in investment and output. (JEL E22, E44, D83, G14) ∗I am deeply indebted to George-Marios Angeletos, Ricardo Caballero, Bengt Holmstr¨om and especially Iv´an Werning for their invaluable guidance. I also thank Daron Acemoglu, Sergi Basco, Francisco Buera, Mart´ın Gonzalez-Eiras, Guido Lorenzoni, Julio Rotemberg, Jean Tirole, Robert Townsend and seminar participants at the MIT Macroeconomics Lunch, Theory Lunch and International Breakfast, the LACEA-LAMES 2009 Meeting and the Federal Reserve Board for useful suggestions and comments. All remaining errors are my own. Correspondence: Department of Economics, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02142. Email: [email protected] 1 1 Introduction Financial markets are fragile, volatile and occasionally shut down entirely. The recent financial crisis has intensified economists’ interest in understanding the causes of financial instability and its effects on real economic variables such as investment, output and productivity. -
When Does Behavioural Economics Really Matter?
When does behavioural economics really matter? Ian McAuley, University of Canberra and Centre for Policy Development (www.cpd.org.au) Paper to accompany presentation to Behavioural Economics stream at Australian Economic Forum, August 2010. Summary Behavioural economics integrates the formal study of psychology, including social psychology, into economics. Its empirical base helps policy makers in understanding how economic actors behave in response to incentives in market transactions and in response to policy interventions. This paper commences with a short description of how behavioural economics fits into the general discipline of economics. The next section outlines the development of behavioural economics, including its development from considerations of individual psychology into the fields of neurology, social psychology and anthropology. It covers developments in general terms; there are excellent and by now well-known detailed descriptions of the specific findings of behavioural economics. The final section examines seven contemporary public policy issues with suggestions on how behavioural economics may help develop sound policy. In some cases Australian policy advisers are already using the findings of behavioural economics to advantage. It matters most of the time In public policy there is nothing novel about behavioural economics, but for a long time it has tended to be ignored in formal texts. Like Molière’s Monsieur Jourdain who was surprised to find he had been speaking prose all his life, economists have long been guided by implicit knowledge of behavioural economics, particularly in macroeconomics. Keynes, for example, understood perfectly the “money illusion” – people’s tendency to think of money in nominal rather than real terms – in his solution to unemployment. -
Pawn Stars: Putting Theories of Negotiation to the Test
European Journal of Contemporary Economics and Management December 2014 Edition Vol.1 No.2 PAWN STARS: PUTTING THEORIES OF NEGOTIATION TO THE TEST Bryan C. Mc Cannon, PhD John Stevens,M.A. Saint Bonaventure University, U.S.A. Doi: 10.19044/elp.v1no2a4 URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/elp.v1no2a4 Abstract Theories of negotiations are tested using a unique data set. The History Channel television show Pawn Stars portrays negotiations between customers and agents of a pawn shop. This provides a novel data set not typically available to researchers as the tactics of bargaining can be observed, recorded, and analyzed. Many, but not all, of the primary theories of negotiations developed receive empirical support. The use of experts, experience of the negotiators, the gap between the initial offers, and the use of final offers all affect the likelihood of a deal being made as well as the division of the surplus. The party making the opening offer suffers a disadvantage, which stands in contrast to predictions of sequential bargaining and anchoring effects. Keywords: Asymmetric information, bargaining, experts, final offer, negotiation, Pawn Stars Introduction Negotiating is a central activity within any organization. A systematic evaluation of the success of the methods used and the environment within which negotiations are taking place must be developed. To be able to formulate and implement successful strategies, an organization must appreciate the effectiveness of the process involved. Previous management research focuses on the relationship between the bargaining process and outcomes. Wall (1984) investigates, for example, the impact of mediator proposals on bargaining outcomes. -
Less Rationality, More Efficiency: a Laboratory Experiment on “Lemon”
Less Rationality, More Efficiency: a Laboratory Experiment on “Lemon” Markets.y Roland Kirstein¤ Annette Kirstein¤¤ Center for the Study of Law and Economics Discussion Paper 2004-02 Abstract We have experimentally tested a theory of bounded rational behav- ior in a “lemon market”. It provides an explanation for the observation that real world players successfully conclude transactions when perfect rationality predicts a market collapse. We analyzed two different market designs: complete and partial market collapse. Our empirical observations deviate substantially from these theoretical predictions. In both markets, the participants traded more than theoretically predicted. Thus, the ac- tual outcome is closer to efficiency than the theoretical prediction. Even after 20 repetitions of the first market constellation, the number of trans- actions did not drop to zero. Our bounded rationality approach to explain these observations starts with the insight that perfect rationality would require the players to per- form an infinite number of iterative reasoning steps. Bounded rational players, however, carry out only a limited number of such iterations. We have determined the iteration type of the players independently from their market behavior. A significant correlation exists between iteration types and observed price offers. JEL classification: D8 , C7, B4 Encyclopedia of Law and Economics: 0710, 5110 Keywords: guessing games, beauty contests, market failure, adverse selection, lemon problem, regulatory failure, paternalistic regulation yWe are grateful to Max Albert, George Akerlof, Ted Bergstrom, Friedel Bolle, Ralf Fried- mann, Rod Garrat, Hans Gerhard, Wolfgang Kerber, Manfred K¨onigstein,G¨oranSkogh, Dieter Schmidtchen, Jean-Robert Tyran and other seminar and conference participants in Hamburg, Karlsruhe, Kassel, Saarbruecken, Santa Barbara and Zurich for valuable comments (the usual disclaimer applies). -
A Survey of Trust and Reputation Systems for Online Service Provision
A Survey of Trust and Reputation Systems for Online Service Provision Audun Jøsang a;1;4 Roslan Ismail b;2 Colin Boyd a;3 aInformation Security Research Centre Queensland University of Technology Brisbane, Australia bCollege of Information Technology Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN) Malaysia Abstract Trust and reputation systems represent a significant trend in decision support for Internet mediated service provision. The basic idea is to let parties rate each other, for example after the completion of a transaction, and use the aggregated ratings about a given party to derive a trust or reputation score, which can assist other parties in deciding whether or not to transact with that party in the future. A natural side effect is that it also provides an incentive for good behaviour, and therefore tends to have a positive effect on market quality. Reputation systems can be called collaborative sanctioning systems to reflect their collaborative nature, and are related to collaborative filtering systems. Reputation systems are already being used in successful commercial online applications. There is also a rapidly growing literature around trust and reputation systems, but unfortunately this activity is not very coherent. The purpose of this article is to give an overview of existing and proposed systems that can be used to derive measures of trust and reputation for Internet transac- tions, to analyse the current trends and developments in this area, and to propose a research agenda for trust and reputation systems. Key words: Trust, reputation, transitivity, collaboration, e-commerce, security, decision 1 Corresponding author. QUT, Brisbane Qld 4001, Australia. Email: [email protected] 2 Email: [email protected] 3 Email: [email protected] 4 The work reported in this paper has been funded in part by the Co-operative Research Centre for Enterprise Distributed Systems Technology (DSTC) through the Australian Fed- eral Government's CRC Programme (Department of Education, Science, & Training). -
The Revolution of Information Economics: the Past and the Future
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE REVOLUTION OF INFORMATION ECONOMICS: THE PAST AND THE FUTURE Joseph E. Stiglitz Working Paper 23780 http://www.nber.org/papers/w23780 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 September 2017 I wish to acknowledge research assistance from Andrew Kosenko and editorial assistance from Debarati Ghosh. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2017 by Joseph E. Stiglitz. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Revolution of Information Economics: The Past and the Future Joseph E. Stiglitz NBER Working Paper No. 23780 September 2017 JEL No. B21,D82,D83 ABSTRACT The economics of information has constituted a revolution in economics, providing explanations of phenomena that previously had been unexplained and upsetting longstanding presumptions, including that of market efficiency, with profound implications for economic policy. Information failures are associated with numerous other market failures, including incomplete risk markets, imperfect capital markets, and imperfections in competition, enhancing opportunities for rent seeking and exploitation. This paper puts into perspective nearly a half century of research, including recent advances in understanding the implications of imperfect information for financial market regulation, macro-stability, inequality, and public and corporate governance; and in recognizing the endogeneity of information imperfections. -
Dr Christopher Decker
Regulatory implications of new products and services in Australian electricity markets FINAL REPORT Prepared by: Dr Christopher Decker 17 July 2015 Table of Contents Summary .................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 4 1.1 Purpose and context of this research .......................................................................... 4 1.2 New products and services in electricity markets ....................................................... 5 1.3 Structure of this paper ................................................................................................. 6 2. Rationales for consumer protection regulation ................................................. 8 2.1 General economic rationales for consumer protection regulations ............................. 8 2.2 The nature of consumer protection regulation .......................................................... 13 2.3 The need for additional consumer protections in retail electricity markets ................ 14 2.4. Interactions between consumer protection policy, competition policy and the wider regulatory framework ................................................................................................ 16 2.5 Summary ................................................................................................................... 19 3. Review of approaches to new products -
Theorem of Lemons»: Demand for Good Cars Under Equilibrium Price Dispersion
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Limits to the «theorem of lemons»: demand for good cars under equilibrium price dispersion Malakhov, Sergey 22 August 2018 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/89655/ MPRA Paper No. 89655, posted 27 Oct 2018 07:41 UTC 1 Limits to the «Theorem of lemons»: demand for good cars under equilibrium price dispersion. Sergey MALAKHOV Ph.D., Applied Economics Pierre-Mendès-France University, Grenoble, France “I remember my brother-in-law going for a short sea trip once, for the benefit of his health. He took a return berth from London to Liverpool; and when he got to Liverpool, the only thing he was anxious about was to sell that return ticket. It was offered round the town at a tremendous reduction, so I am told; and was eventually sold for eighteen pence to a bilious-looking youth who had just been advised by his medical men to go to the sea-side and take exercise…He himself – my brother-in-law - came back by train.” (Jerome K.J. Three men in a boat (to say nothing of the dog) 1889, pp.10-11) The model of equilibrium price dispersion examines the demand for cars through the optics of the demand for mileage where the asymmetry of information is produced by the odometer fraud. Theoretically, fraudsters can destroy the market as it is described by the “theorem of lemons”. But the market self-deactivation does not take place. The purchase of a car with regard to the demand for mileage represents a form of home production where driving like gardening and pets’ care provide a direct utility but is also something one can purchase on the market. -
Computational Models of Trust and Reputation: Agents, Evolutionary Games, and Social Networks
Computational Models of Trust and Reputation: Agents, Evolutionary Games, and Social Networks by Lik Mui B.S., M.Eng., Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995 M. Phil., Management Studies, Department of Social Studies University of Oxford, 1997 Submitted to the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY December 20, 2002 Copyright 2002 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. Signature of Author: ____________________________________________________________ Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science December 20, 2002 Certified by: ___________________________________________________________________ Peter Szolovits Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Thesis Supervisor Accepted by: __________________________________________________________________ Arthur C. Smith Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Chairman, Department Committee on Graduate Students Computational Models of Trust and Reputation: Agents, Evolutionary Games, and Social Networks by Lik Mui Submitted to the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science on December 20, 2002 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Abstract Many recent studies of trust and reputation are made -
Information and the Market for Lemons
mss # Levin; AP art. # 3; RAND Journal of Economics vol. 32(4) RAND Journal of Economics Vol. 32, No. 4, Winter 2001 pp. 657–666 Information and the market for lemons Jonathan Levin∗ This article revisits Akerlof’s (1970) classic adverse-selection market and asks the following question: do greater information asymmetries reduce the gains from trade? Perhaps surprisingly, the answer is no. Better information on the selling side worsens the “buyer’s curse,”thus lowering demand, but may shift supply as well. Whether trade increases or decreases depends on the relative sizes of these effects. A characterization is given. On the other hand, improving the buyer’s information—i.e., making private information public—unambiguously improves trade so long as market demand is downward sloping. 1. Introduction Since Akerlof’s (1970) seminal article, adverse selection has come to be seen as a fundamen- tal cause of market failure. Resale markets, housing markets, and markets for corporate securities probably all suffer to some extent from the problem that some market participants have better information than others about the value of the good being traded. In such markets, theory suggests that only a fraction of the potential gains from trade are realized. This article investigates a basic question about adverse-selection markets: do greater informa- tion asymmetries reduce the potential for realizing gains from trade? It looks for an answer in the classic asymmetric-information setting, Akerlof’s (1970) market for lemons. Sellers have some amount of private information, while buyers are uninformed. There is no potential for screening or signalling, nor any mechanism for bargaining—a price is posted and buyers and sellers decide whether or not to enter the market. -
A Survey on Reputation Systems in E-Commerce
International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Science Volume 1, Issue 2, pp. 1-4, 2017. A Survey on Reputation Systems in E-Commerce Gigi Mol1, Sincy John2 1 PG Student, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, A.P.J Abdul Kalam University, Kerala, India 2 Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, A.P.J Abdul Kalam University, Kerala, India Email address: [email protected] Abstract— A crucial factor for the success of e-commerce system is accurate trust evaluation. Reputation based trust models are widely used in e-commerce systems, where the ratings are used to calculate the trust score. These ratings, also referred as recommendations, referrals and feedback, is the most important factor in building the trust relationship. Ratings will guide the potential buyers to choose the most trustworthy seller. Different rating system may adopt different methods to calculate the reputation trust score, which in turn rank the sellers to guide the buyers. A comprehensive survey on different reputation system in e-commerce applications are presented in this paper. Keywords— Reputation system, trust score, peer-to-peer, feedback. positive feedback percentage is calculated based on the I. INTRODUCTION average number of positive and negative feedback in a The most important factors to be considered in an e-commerce specified period of time for a particular transaction. All good system are trust and reputation. Reputation based trust models repute problem occurs in this system as it cannot express the are used in e-commerce applications to help the users or negative aspect towards a transaction [2]. To bring the customers to choose the best seller by letting them rate each reputation score to a reasonable level, feedback comments are other. -
Carbon and Consumers
Carbon and consumers Paper to accompany presentation at “Carbon and Consumers Conference”, Sydney, Public Interest Advocacy Centre, February 2009 Ian McAuley, University of Canberra and Centre for Policy Development Summary The focus of the conference is on the impact of a carbon pollution reduction stream (CPRS) on low-income and other disadvantaged households. Because domestic energy is essential for everyday living, such households are already paying a high share of their income on electricity and gas. Also, the price of these utilities has been rising in real terms over the last ten years, and is expected to do so even more strongly under a CPRS. While the Commonwealth has said it will provide financial compensation for low- income households, they are likely to be constrained in making investments which will allow them to reduce their fuel consumption. In part, this is because all consumers, whatever their financial circumstances, find the necessary calculations difficult, and are subject to behavioral biases which tend to discount future savings. In addition, people in low-income households, particularly those who are renting, are generally constrained in their choices, and find that energy-saving appliances are priced out of their reach. Also commercial incentives on utility companies tend to favour consumption over conservation, and they do not make it easy for people to take advantage of lower-priced tariffs. In hoping people respond to the prie signals in a CPRS, governments may be too reliant on market forces and on assumptions of “rational” consumer behavior. Without distorting resource allocation (in fact improving environmental and equity outcomes), there are more active forms of market intervention governments can use.