Unclassified DAF/COMP/GF(2008)6 Global Forum on Competition
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Lemons, Market Shutdowns and Learning
Lemons, Market Shutdowns and Learning Pablo Kurlat ∗ MIT Job Market Paper November 2009 Abstract I study a dynamic economy featuring adverse selection in financial markets. Investment is undertaken by borrowing-constrained entrepreneurs. They sell their past projects to finance new ones, but asymmetric information about project quality creates a lemons problem. The magnitude of this friction responds to aggregate shocks, amplifying the responses of asset prices and investment. Indeed, negative shocks can lead to a complete shutdown in financial markets. I then introduce learning from past transactions. This makes the degree of informational asymmetry endogenous and makes the liquidity of assets depend on the experience of market participants. Market downturns lead to less learning, worsening the future adverse selection problem. As a result, transitory shocks can create highly persistent responses in investment and output. (JEL E22, E44, D83, G14) ∗I am deeply indebted to George-Marios Angeletos, Ricardo Caballero, Bengt Holmstr¨om and especially Iv´an Werning for their invaluable guidance. I also thank Daron Acemoglu, Sergi Basco, Francisco Buera, Mart´ın Gonzalez-Eiras, Guido Lorenzoni, Julio Rotemberg, Jean Tirole, Robert Townsend and seminar participants at the MIT Macroeconomics Lunch, Theory Lunch and International Breakfast, the LACEA-LAMES 2009 Meeting and the Federal Reserve Board for useful suggestions and comments. All remaining errors are my own. Correspondence: Department of Economics, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02142. Email: [email protected] 1 1 Introduction Financial markets are fragile, volatile and occasionally shut down entirely. The recent financial crisis has intensified economists’ interest in understanding the causes of financial instability and its effects on real economic variables such as investment, output and productivity. -
When Does Behavioural Economics Really Matter?
When does behavioural economics really matter? Ian McAuley, University of Canberra and Centre for Policy Development (www.cpd.org.au) Paper to accompany presentation to Behavioural Economics stream at Australian Economic Forum, August 2010. Summary Behavioural economics integrates the formal study of psychology, including social psychology, into economics. Its empirical base helps policy makers in understanding how economic actors behave in response to incentives in market transactions and in response to policy interventions. This paper commences with a short description of how behavioural economics fits into the general discipline of economics. The next section outlines the development of behavioural economics, including its development from considerations of individual psychology into the fields of neurology, social psychology and anthropology. It covers developments in general terms; there are excellent and by now well-known detailed descriptions of the specific findings of behavioural economics. The final section examines seven contemporary public policy issues with suggestions on how behavioural economics may help develop sound policy. In some cases Australian policy advisers are already using the findings of behavioural economics to advantage. It matters most of the time In public policy there is nothing novel about behavioural economics, but for a long time it has tended to be ignored in formal texts. Like Molière’s Monsieur Jourdain who was surprised to find he had been speaking prose all his life, economists have long been guided by implicit knowledge of behavioural economics, particularly in macroeconomics. Keynes, for example, understood perfectly the “money illusion” – people’s tendency to think of money in nominal rather than real terms – in his solution to unemployment. -
ECLAC WORKSHOP NEW TOOLS and METHODS for POLICY-MAKING 19 May 2014, Paris
OECD - ECLAC WORKSHOP NEW TOOLS AND METHODS FOR POLICY-MAKING 19 May 2014, Paris 21 March 2014 Dear Madam/Sir, We are pleased to invite you to the Workshop on New Tools and Methods for Policy-making, co- organised by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The workshop will take place at the OECD headquarters in Paris on Monday 19 May 2014. The workshop represents a unique opportunity for policy-makers, academics, researchers in economics and representatives of international organisations to meet. Discussions will focus especially on how recent advances in methods and tools in economics could contribute to devise more effective policies to foster growth, employment and improved income distribution. Leading economists will present their views on these advances in the four following fields: • complexity and network theory; • agent-based modelling; • behavioural and experimental economics; and • big data. These approaches hold promise to redefine the toolkit which experts, academics and policy-makers could use for their analyses in the coming years. The preliminary programme of the workshop is attached. We kindly invite you to register on our dedicated website at http://www.oecd.org/naec/workshop.htm by 25 April 2014. Should you require additional information, please do not hesitate to contact Mr. Romain Zivy at ECLAC and Ms. Elena Miteva at the OECD via the meeting website. We look forward to welcoming you at this workshop. Yours sincerely, Alicia Barcena Angel Gurría Executive Secretary Secretary General ECLAC, United Nations OECD ECLAC, Av. -
Pawn Stars: Putting Theories of Negotiation to the Test
European Journal of Contemporary Economics and Management December 2014 Edition Vol.1 No.2 PAWN STARS: PUTTING THEORIES OF NEGOTIATION TO THE TEST Bryan C. Mc Cannon, PhD John Stevens,M.A. Saint Bonaventure University, U.S.A. Doi: 10.19044/elp.v1no2a4 URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/elp.v1no2a4 Abstract Theories of negotiations are tested using a unique data set. The History Channel television show Pawn Stars portrays negotiations between customers and agents of a pawn shop. This provides a novel data set not typically available to researchers as the tactics of bargaining can be observed, recorded, and analyzed. Many, but not all, of the primary theories of negotiations developed receive empirical support. The use of experts, experience of the negotiators, the gap between the initial offers, and the use of final offers all affect the likelihood of a deal being made as well as the division of the surplus. The party making the opening offer suffers a disadvantage, which stands in contrast to predictions of sequential bargaining and anchoring effects. Keywords: Asymmetric information, bargaining, experts, final offer, negotiation, Pawn Stars Introduction Negotiating is a central activity within any organization. A systematic evaluation of the success of the methods used and the environment within which negotiations are taking place must be developed. To be able to formulate and implement successful strategies, an organization must appreciate the effectiveness of the process involved. Previous management research focuses on the relationship between the bargaining process and outcomes. Wall (1984) investigates, for example, the impact of mediator proposals on bargaining outcomes. -
Field Experiments in Development Economics1 Esther Duflo Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Field Experiments in Development Economics1 Esther Duflo Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Department of Economics and Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab) BREAD, CEPR, NBER January 2006 Prepared for the World Congress of the Econometric Society Abstract There is a long tradition in development economics of collecting original data to test specific hypotheses. Over the last 10 years, this tradition has merged with an expertise in setting up randomized field experiments, resulting in an increasingly large number of studies where an original experiment has been set up to test economic theories and hypotheses. This paper extracts some substantive and methodological lessons from such studies in three domains: incentives, social learning, and time-inconsistent preferences. The paper argues that we need both to continue testing existing theories and to start thinking of how the theories may be adapted to make sense of the field experiment results, many of which are starting to challenge them. This new framework could then guide a new round of experiments. 1 I would like to thank Richard Blundell, Joshua Angrist, Orazio Attanasio, Abhijit Banerjee, Tim Besley, Michael Kremer, Sendhil Mullainathan and Rohini Pande for comments on this paper and/or having been instrumental in shaping my views on these issues. I thank Neel Mukherjee and Kudzai Takavarasha for carefully reading and editing a previous draft. 1 There is a long tradition in development economics of collecting original data in order to test a specific economic hypothesis or to study a particular setting or institution. This is perhaps due to a conjunction of the lack of readily available high-quality, large-scale data sets commonly available in industrialized countries and the low cost of data collection in developing countries, though development economists also like to think that it has something to do with the mindset of many of them. -
Behavioral & Experimental Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis
Working Paper Series Cars Hommes Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach No 2201 / November 2018 Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Abstract This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasiz- ing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the question under which conditions a complex macro-system of interacting agents may or may not coordinate on the rational equilibrium outcome. A general finding is that under positive expectations feedback (strategic complementarity) {where optimistic (pessimistic) expectations can cause a boom (bust){ coordination failures are quite common. The economy is then rather unstable and persistent aggre- gate fluctuations arise strongly amplified by coordination on trend-following behavior leading to (almost-)self-fulfilling equilibria. Heterogeneous expecta- tions and heuristics switching models match this observed micro and macro behaviour surprisingly well. We also discuss policy implications of this coordi- nation failure on the perfectly rational aggregate outcome and how policy can help to manage the self-organization process of a complex economic system. JEL Classification: D84, D83, E32, C92 Keywords: Expectations feedback, learning, coordination failure, almost self- fulfilling equilibria, simple heuristics, experimental & behavioral macro-economics. ECB Working Paper Series No 2201 / November 2018 1 Non-technical summary Most policy analysis is still based on rational expectations models, often with a per- fectly rational representative agent. -
Experimental Methods: Measuring Effort in Economics Experiments
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 149 (2018) 74–87 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo Experimental methods: Measuring effort in economics experiments ∗ Gary Charness a, , Uri Gneezy b,c, Austin Henderson b a Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara, United States b Rady School of Management, University of California, San Diego, United States c CREED, University of Amsterdam, United States a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: The study of effort provision in a controlled setting is a key research area in experimental Received 4 November 2017 economics. There are two major methodological paradigms in this literature: stated effort Revised 24 February 2018 and real effort. In the stated-effort paradigm the researcher uses an “effort function” that Accepted 26 February 2018 maps choices to outcomes. In the real-effort paradigm, participants work on a task, and outcomes depend on their performance. The advantage of the stated-effort design is the JEL codes: control the researcher has over the cost of effort, which is particularly useful when testing B49 theory. The advantage of the real-effort design is that it may be a better match to the C90 field environment, particularly with respect to psychological aspects that affect behavior. C91 An open question in the literature is the degree to which the results obtained by the two C92 paradigms differ, and if they do, why. We present a review of methods used and discuss the results obtained from using these different approaches, and issues to consider when Keywords: Stated effort choosing and implementing a task. -
Less Rationality, More Efficiency: a Laboratory Experiment on “Lemon”
Less Rationality, More Efficiency: a Laboratory Experiment on “Lemon” Markets.y Roland Kirstein¤ Annette Kirstein¤¤ Center for the Study of Law and Economics Discussion Paper 2004-02 Abstract We have experimentally tested a theory of bounded rational behav- ior in a “lemon market”. It provides an explanation for the observation that real world players successfully conclude transactions when perfect rationality predicts a market collapse. We analyzed two different market designs: complete and partial market collapse. Our empirical observations deviate substantially from these theoretical predictions. In both markets, the participants traded more than theoretically predicted. Thus, the ac- tual outcome is closer to efficiency than the theoretical prediction. Even after 20 repetitions of the first market constellation, the number of trans- actions did not drop to zero. Our bounded rationality approach to explain these observations starts with the insight that perfect rationality would require the players to per- form an infinite number of iterative reasoning steps. Bounded rational players, however, carry out only a limited number of such iterations. We have determined the iteration type of the players independently from their market behavior. A significant correlation exists between iteration types and observed price offers. JEL classification: D8 , C7, B4 Encyclopedia of Law and Economics: 0710, 5110 Keywords: guessing games, beauty contests, market failure, adverse selection, lemon problem, regulatory failure, paternalistic regulation yWe are grateful to Max Albert, George Akerlof, Ted Bergstrom, Friedel Bolle, Ralf Fried- mann, Rod Garrat, Hans Gerhard, Wolfgang Kerber, Manfred K¨onigstein,G¨oranSkogh, Dieter Schmidtchen, Jean-Robert Tyran and other seminar and conference participants in Hamburg, Karlsruhe, Kassel, Saarbruecken, Santa Barbara and Zurich for valuable comments (the usual disclaimer applies). -
Economics Working Paper Series Teaching Microeconomic Principles
Economics Working Paper Series Teaching Microeconomic principles with smartphones -lessons from classroom experiments with classEx Marcus Gianmattei Humberto Llavador October 2017 Barcelona GSE Working Paper Series Working Paper nº 996 Teaching Microeconomic Principles with Smartphones – Lessons from classroom experiments with classEx* Marcus Giamattei†‡§ and Humberto Llavador**†† October 2017 Abstract Classroom experiments as a teaching tool increase understanding and especially motivation. Traditionally, experiments have been run using pen-and-paper or in a computer lab. Pen-and-paper is time and resource consuming. Experiments in the lab require appropriate installations and impede the direct interaction among students. During the last two years, we have created fully elaborated packages to run a complete course in microeconomics principles using face-to-face experiments with mobile devices. The experiments are based on Bergstrom-Miller (2000), and we used classEx, a free online tool, to run them in the classroom. The packages were used at Universitat Pompeu Fabra with over 500 undergraduate students in the fall 2016. This paper presents our experience on classEx and the Bergstrom-Miller approach working in combination, and the lessons learned. Keywords: experiential learning; microeconomics; mobile devices; classroom experiments; classEx JEL-Classification: A22, C72, C90, D00 * We are grateful to Ted Bergstrom, Johann Graf Lambsdorff, John Millner and Rosemarie Nagel for all their support and extremely helpful suggestions. We thank Katharina Werner and Susanna Grundmann for their feedback. We also want to thank the many instructors who have participated over the years in testing and discussing the experiments and the classEx packages at Pompeu Fabra University and at the University of Alicante. -
The Revolution of Information Economics: the Past and the Future
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE REVOLUTION OF INFORMATION ECONOMICS: THE PAST AND THE FUTURE Joseph E. Stiglitz Working Paper 23780 http://www.nber.org/papers/w23780 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 September 2017 I wish to acknowledge research assistance from Andrew Kosenko and editorial assistance from Debarati Ghosh. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2017 by Joseph E. Stiglitz. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Revolution of Information Economics: The Past and the Future Joseph E. Stiglitz NBER Working Paper No. 23780 September 2017 JEL No. B21,D82,D83 ABSTRACT The economics of information has constituted a revolution in economics, providing explanations of phenomena that previously had been unexplained and upsetting longstanding presumptions, including that of market efficiency, with profound implications for economic policy. Information failures are associated with numerous other market failures, including incomplete risk markets, imperfect capital markets, and imperfections in competition, enhancing opportunities for rent seeking and exploitation. This paper puts into perspective nearly a half century of research, including recent advances in understanding the implications of imperfect information for financial market regulation, macro-stability, inequality, and public and corporate governance; and in recognizing the endogeneity of information imperfections. -
Experimental Economics and the Law *
EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS AND THE LAW * Sean P. Sullivan† Federal Trade Commission Charles A. Holt‡ University of Virginia June 8, 2014 is chapter surveys the past and future role of experimental economics in legal research and practice. Following a brief explanation of the theory and methodology of experimental economics, the chapter discusses topics in each of three broad application areas: (1) the use of experiments for studying legal institutions such as settlement bargaining and adjudica- tive functions, (2) the use of experiments to explore legal doctrines, and (3) the use of experiments in litigation and trial strategy. e general theme of this material is a broad and versatile relationship between law and experimental economics. * Pre-print version of Sean P. Sullivan & Charles A. Holt, Experimental Economics and the Law, in 1 OXFORD HANDBOOK OF LAW AND ECONOMICS 78 (Francesco Parisi ed., Oxford University Press 2017). † Federal Trade Commission. is chapter reflects the prsonal views of the author and does not necessarily represent the views of the United States Government or Federal Trade Commission, which have neither approved nor disapproved its con- tent. Contact Sean Sullivan at [email protected]. ‡ A. Willis Robertson Professor of Political Economy, Department of Economics, University of Virginia. Contact Charles Holt at [email protected]. Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1 2 THE METHODOLOGY OF EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS ............. -
Dr Christopher Decker
Regulatory implications of new products and services in Australian electricity markets FINAL REPORT Prepared by: Dr Christopher Decker 17 July 2015 Table of Contents Summary .................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 4 1.1 Purpose and context of this research .......................................................................... 4 1.2 New products and services in electricity markets ....................................................... 5 1.3 Structure of this paper ................................................................................................. 6 2. Rationales for consumer protection regulation ................................................. 8 2.1 General economic rationales for consumer protection regulations ............................. 8 2.2 The nature of consumer protection regulation .......................................................... 13 2.3 The need for additional consumer protections in retail electricity markets ................ 14 2.4. Interactions between consumer protection policy, competition policy and the wider regulatory framework ................................................................................................ 16 2.5 Summary ................................................................................................................... 19 3. Review of approaches to new products