Iraq Five Years In: Should the U.S. Stay or Go?

Summer 2008 www.belfercenter.org Experts Sound Calls for Action on Economy

ith the United States economy still in Congress and the Federal Wturmoil, economists affiliated with Reserve to stimulate the the Belfer Center are deeply involved in help- economy. Additionally, in a ing the federal government develop sound Wall Street Journal oped on policies to mitigate the damage. March 7 titled “How to Martin Feldstein, Harvard economics Stop the Mortgage Crisis,” professor and member of the Belfer Center Feldstein noted that the Board of Directors, is outgoing president of housing-related risk is the National Bureau of Economic Research, greater than anything since Martin Feldstein, Lawrence Summers, Jeffrey Frankel, Paul Volcker the organization that is officially charged with the 1930s. He called for a declaring a recession. Feldstein expressed his program of federal loans to individuals to pay prices down even further. personal opinion on the matter in a speech in down part of their mortgages, secured by their Lawrence Summers, Charles W. Eliot March, saying that the United States is in a future incomes. University Professor at Harvard and a mem- recession that could be “substantially more One way such a program might work, ber of the Center’s board, has called for the severe” than those in the recent past. “The Feldstein said, would be for the federal govern- government to seriously examine ways to help situation is bad, the situation is getting worse, ment to lend each participant 20 percent of refinance mortgages that consumers can no and the risks are that it could get very bad,” that individual’s current mortgage at a very low longer afford. “If the government, by step- Feldstein said. interest rate. She/he would pay it back in 15 ping in and engaging in transactions where it years. In the meantime, the individual would could well make a profit, can contribute immediately pay down his existing primary importantly to that, that’s a very worthwhile Feldstein noted that the mortgage, substantially reducing interest and effort for the government to engage in,” housing-related risk is greater principal payments. This would have the effect Summers said in March. than anything since the 1930s. of also reducing the possibility that the indi- vidual would have a negative equity mortgage. In doing this, it would lower the risk of more Summers called for the Feldstein has called for action by both widespread defaults that would push house government to examine ways to help refinance mortgages. Iraq: Stay or Go? Center Analysts Explore the Options Summers also has advocated more credit The President-elect has brought you on as region. He/she has asked for your comprehensive counseling and increased aid to state and local National Security Advisor based on your analyti- analysis of the best way forward in Iraq. You are governments that have been hit hard by the cal capability to think clearly about Iraq and the to draft a memo outlining three strategic options. economic crisis. (See Summers, page 11.) One option should provide the newly-elected pres- Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Fed- R E ident an opportunity to deliver on his/her politi- eral Reserve and a member of the Belfer Cen- T N E cal promise to withdraw troops as rapidly as ter International Council, has suggested a C R

E possible. The others should focus on how best to broader role for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac F L E defend and advance American vital national in mitigating the crisis, as well as tighter gov- B interests within Iraq and across the region, even ernment oversight of investment banks such as if that requires some adjustment of what was said Bear Stearns. The U.S. government stepped in in the campaign. to assist JP Morgan in taking over Bear Stearns in March, raising new questions about the role raham Allison, director of the Belfer of the government in shepherding the country Center, and Meghan O’Sullivan, Cen- G through the crisis. ter senior fellow and former deputy national “Unless the Fed’s initiative can somehow From the Front Lines: Brigadier General (ret) security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan, be contained to a single aberrant incident— Kevin Ryan, Belfer Center senior fellow, assigned this task to students in their “Central discusses counterinsurgency strategies in Iraq which seems quite unlikely—a direct responsi- Challenges of American Foreign Policy” class. with Colonel John Tien, an Army War College bility for oversight and regulation follows,” Interestingly, Allison notes, 90 percent of the and National Security fellow at the Kennedy Volcker said at the Economic Club of New students were for rapid withdrawal from Iraq School this year. In 2006/07,Tien commanded a York in April. battalion of a thousand troops in Iraq and was when they began, but by the time they wrote Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Profes- responsible for securing Tal Afar and Ramadi. He their memos, “more than half were for leaving sor of Capital Formation and Growth and a helped start the Al Anbar Awakening in Ramadi in 75,000 plus troops there for long time.” which Sunni tribes denounced Al Qaeda and faculty affiliate of the Belfer Center, argues started partnering with U.S. and Coalition Forces. continued on page 4 continued on page 4 FROM THE DIRECTOR R E T N E C R E F L E But we could be four times as efficient—at B least as efficient nationally as California or maybe even Japan. (See Oil ShockWave, page 3.) The Oil ShockWave Forum and the broader economic situation underline the need ow more than ever, the current eco- Insight from Down Under: John Howard (left), for informed policymaking. But that is not the former prime minister of Australia for four terms nomic situation drives home the rela- N only subject that needs attention. We have been (1996–2007), discusses critical issues involving tionship between the economy and national working closely with Congressional staff, Asia with Lawrence Summers, member of the security. Several of our Belfer Center col- Belfer Center Board of Directors. Howard spoke Administration officials, and others in Wash- leagues—among them Larry Summers, Marty at a Belfer Center seminar in March regarding ington, D.C. on a number of pressing issues. Feldstein, Paul Volcker, and Jeff Frankel— his assessment of challenges facing Australia Ash Carter, Matt Bunn, and I have all testified not only warned about the coming economic and Asia. recently before the Senate Committee on troubles well ahead of the rest of the pack, Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. These issues were on the agenda of the they also are leading the search for solutions. Former Senator Bob Graham and Eric Rosen- Belfer Center International Council’s annual (See more on their work on pages 1 and 11.) bach are putting together a project to train meeting in April, and members were joined by Along similar lines, our recent Oil Shock- members of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Center scholars and practitioners in discussing Wave Forum event vividly illustrated the secu- In addition, John Holdren and Kelly Gal- these and other critical issues and brainstorm- rity implications of a disruption in oil supplies. lagher are helping Congressional staff develop ing best ways forward. The Council, whose Former Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin, U.S. auto policy, while Rob Stavins is working membership consists of leaders in a wide range Meghan O’Sullivan, Summers, and others closely with international policymakers on forg- of fields throughout the world, provided valu- played the role of U.S. Cabinet members ing a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. able counsel as always. developing a proposed U.S. response to a dev- astating oil crisis. Center’s Energy Team Works with India on Clean Coal Policies The U.S. is highly vulnerable in a situation in which elfer’s Energy Technology Innovation coal sector’s efficiency, while other countries decide to BPolicy (ETIP) research group is in the minimizing social and eco- midst of an exciting initiative, engaging with logical impacts of the deliberately withhold oil for the Indian government, industry, and acade- nation’s reliance on coal. strategic reasons. mics, on addressing various challenges in the One major result from Indian coal sector. Because of coal’s abun- their work in India has been dance, it plays a critical role in India’s energy, a series of high-level work- We also are working with Securing Amer- while at the same time contributing to its shops, convened by the ica’s Future Energy (SAFE) to produce an oil social and environmental problems. Led by influential Indian Planning Ananth Chikkatur crisis simulation game for use in university Research Fellow Ananth Chikkatur, in collab- Commission and ASCI. classrooms, based on lessons learned in Oil oration with Senior Research Associate Ambuj The overall goal of the ShockWave. The game provides a useful way Sagar, ETIP’s work is helping chart an envi- workshops is to assess the to engage students in grappling with a realistic ronmentally responsible way forward for the current state of knowledge scenario that drives home the vulnerability of Indian coal sector. about India’s coal reserves, U.S. dependence on oil imports. We believe it determine a plan of action will provide a valuable supplement to classes for filling knowledge gaps, on foreign policy, energy and the environment, Because of coal’s abundance, assess key processes and public policy, or even general government. (To it plays a critical role in India’s technologies for more effi- order the case, see: www.belfercenter.org/oil.) energy, while . . . contributing cient and cleaner coal Ambuj Sagar After watching the Oil ShockWave extraction and power gener- simulation several times, and being involved to its social and environmental ation, and to develop a coherent roadmap for in production of the case, I have several key problems. the coal and coal-power sectors for the coming takeaways: two to three decades. The workshops have • High levels of imports leave the U.S. (and been very successful, with wide-ranging and For months, Chikkatur and Sagar have the world) vulnerable to price shocks. We energetic contributions from the participants. been meeting with members of the Indian urgently need more robust shock absorbers. “The imprimatur of the Planning Commission Planning Commission, the Administrative • We need to coordinate our strategic oil and participation of the relevant ministries and Staff College of India (ASCI), Indian coal reserves with those of Europe, Japan, and agencies,” Chikkatur says, “ensure that key companies, various energy and environment China. outcomes of the workshops will get appropri- ministries, and other relevant agencies in an • A rational U.S. energy policy would ate policy attention.” effort to identify and address the various gaps increase energy efficiency (note that we are A Chikkatur and Sagar roadmap for in the Indian coal sector. Familiar with the twice as efficient as we were before 1973 as cleaner coal-based power generation in India is details of Indian coal, from resource evaluation a result of adopting CAFE and other stan- available at http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard to extraction and combustion, they are work- dards, as well as adjusting to higher prices). .edu/publication/18186. ing with India to find ways to maximize the 2 T R

“Oil ShockWave” Sends Tremors through the Forum A W E T

by Angharad D. Laing, BA ’02 MPP ’09 S A H T R A

ven a relatively minor disruption in the nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization M Eglobal supply of oil could have profound committed to reducing America’s dependence effects for the U.S. economy and national on oil and improving U.S. energy security. “An T R security, according to a distinguished group of unexpected reduction in oil supply of just three A W E

former government officials, economists, and to four percent could cause prices in the U.S. T S energy and security experts who took part in to spike by more than 50 percent and have pro- A H T an innovative role-playing exercise in the John found effects on American consumers.” R A F. Kennedy Forum last month. Based on materials developed by SAFE as M part of its Oil ShockWave project, the simula- tion explored the nature and extent of U.S. oil [P]articipants assumed roles as dependence and the policy decisions that U.S. members of the United States government officials would face in the event of Preventing Aftershocks: A mock Cabinet meeting a global oil crisis. Before an audience of in the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum as members Cabinet and reacted in real determine U.S. response to a global oil crisis.The Boston-area professors, students, and members Oil ShockWave simulation in April included time as a simulated geopolitical of the press, seven participants assumed roles (from left) Joe Lockhart, Meghan O’Sullivan, crisis unfolded. as senior members of the United States Cabi- Lawrence Summers, Robert Rubin, Ashton net and reacted in real time as a simulated Carter, Philip Sharp, and Joan Dempsey. geopolitical crisis unfolded. Inset: Rubin and Carter debate an issue. “This simulation provides us with a vivid Members of the Cabinet, chaired by former demonstration of how vulnerable we really are,” Secretary of the United States Treasury Robert former Assistant Secretary of Defense Ashton said Eric Rosenbach, executive director for Rubin, were selected to represent bipartisan B. Carter, former Executive Director of the research at the Belfer Center for Science and viewpoints. Participants included former White President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board International Affairs, which organized the event House Press Secretary Joe Lockhart, former Joan Dempsey, and former Secretary of the in partnership with Washington, D.C.-based Congressman Philip Sharp, former Deputy United States Treasury Lawrence H. Summers. Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), a National Security Advisor Meghan O’Sullivan, Information was relayed to the group through pre-produced television newscasts and notes injected during the event. The simula- Workshop Ponders Post-Kyoto: What Next? tion began with a newsflash from Istanbul: ter- rorists had attacked and sunk a cargo ship in ith the Kyoto Protocol’s first commit- ness, government and NGOs—to help inform the Bosporus Straits, thus blocking the move- ment period expiring in 2012, the global climate policy architecture. W ment of oil in the region for the foreseeable Harvard Project on International Climate future and sending the price of oil up to $160 Agreements hosted a workshop of leading per barrel. As the Cabinet debated options, thinkers in March to help determine what At the end of two years, if we they were informed of a sudden outbreak of comes next. help countries . . . be open to violence in Saudi Arabia. The added uncer- The workshop brought together key schol- better, more progressive tainty in oil supply sent the price even higher. ars and other thinkers working on interna- tional climate change policy from a variety of policy approaches, we will disciplines, including economics, political sci- have succeeded. The simulation began with a ence, and law. Together, they addressed issues —Robert Stavins such as how to persuade developing countries newsflash . . . terrorists had —among them China and India—to sign on sunk a cargo ship . . . blocking to an international agreement, how to link cli- One of the project’s key goals is to per- movement of oil . . . and sending mate policy with international trade, and how suade the countries around the world to not to effectively address deforestation, which only look at ideas similar to the Kyoto Proto- the price up to $160 per barrel. accounts for 20 percent of global emissions. col, but also to look at ideas very different in The workshop is part of a larger effort by structure. Key ideas range from indexing emis- At the conclusion of the simulation, former the Harvard Project to draw on the ideas of sions targets to economic growth to “bottom- Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin key stakeholders—including academics, busi- up” approaches such as linking together the observed that the Oil ShockWave exercise is

H actions of a number of countries. important because it makes policymakers and C N

Y “At the end of two years, if we help coun- industry leaders think ahead about their L

N tries of the world be open to better, more pro-

A options if such a situation should occur. S

U gressive policy approaches, we will have S Oil ShockWave was originally produced by succeeded,” said Kennedy School Professor SAFE in 2005 and has received widespread Robert N. Stavins, co-director of the Harvard acclaim as a tool to bring the expertise of Project with Resources for the Future Fellow senior decision-makers to bear on the chal- Joseph Aldy. lenge of energy security. The project’s research agenda closely par- allels the “Bali roadmap,” laying out a two- u year plan to reach an agreement in 2009, and Brainstorming Alternatives: Robert Stavins calling for long-term efforts to reduce green- Oil ShockWave: College Edition (right) and Joseph Aldy, co-directors of the house gas emissions, increase transfer of clean box set available. See page 15. Harvard Project on International Climate energy technologies, and address deforestation. Agreements, discuss project goals at the March workshop. —From Harvard Gazette, March 20, 2008 3 Iraq: Stay or Go? (continued from page 1)

Like the students, Allison and others at the our commitment to Iraq is strong, we can Center have a range of views on the Iraq war Civil war may occur after help create the environment in which Iraqi and the best way forward. As the nation noted we withdraw, but that danger leaders make decisions consistent with a sta- the fifth anniversary of the war in March, sev- ble, united Iraq. eral experts offered their thoughts. Commen- exists whenever we leave. tary is posted in full at http://belfercenter.ksg –—Stephen Walt .harvard.edu/publication/18169/ Today, we have the right strategy in place. Stephen Walt (Professor of International The president took our eyes off Affairs; Belfer Center Board of Directors) —Meghan O’Sullivan “The war has done enormous damage to U.S. the prize. interests in the Middle East. The invasion —Graham Allison If our commitment comes into question, it destabilized the region and enhanced Iran’s will become harder for Iraqis to put aside their influence and strategic position. It also con- sectarian and ethnic affiliations and make deci- tributed to the unprecedented rise in oil Graham Allison sions in the interest of Iraq as a whole.” prices, discredited democracy, and further tar- “Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) has called the nished America’s image in the Arab and Kevin Ryan (Belfer Center Senior Fellow; Iraq War, ‘the most dangerous foreign policy Islamic world. . . . Civil war may occur after Brigadier General ret.) blunder in this country since Vietnam.’ I we withdraw, but that danger exists whenever “Time may turn out to be our greatest ally in agree. The fifth anniversary of this unnecessary we leave. . . . For the next President, continu- Iraq. If we can keep violence to a tolerable ‘war of choice’ should serve as a reminder that ing the occupation means taking ownership level and keep reconciliation moving forward however expensive the direct costs in blood of Bush’s blunder. If he or she does this, the then, given enough time, we can be hopeful and treasure, the opportunity costs are even Iraq quagmire will dominate their presidency about a unified and stable Iraq. American mili- more significant. At a point where the U.S. and make it harder to focus on other looming tary and diplomatic presence in Iraq should be had successfully toppled the Taliban and had challenges, while the costs continue to designed to leverage this growing factor of Al-Qaeda on the ropes, the president took our mount. By getting out quickly, the next Presi- time. Our force levels should be lowered so eyes off the prize. As a consequence, Al-Qaeda dent can restore America’s freedom of action they can be sustainable over time. Our recon- has re-acquired its sanctuaries and was able to and begin to rebuild our damaged interna- struction investments should be increased so regenerate ‘key capabilities it would need to tional position.” they can provide substantial economic assis- launch an attack on U.S. soil.’” tance for the long haul.” Meghan O’Sullivan Eric Rosenbach (Executive Director for “At the end of 2006, most Americans were Research, Belfer Center) talking about how to manage a defeat in Iraq. “The reality of contemporary Iraq is that we Time may turn out to be our . . . Today, we have the right strategy in place, are far from achieving the goal of a stable, and it is making a difference on the ground . . . greatest ally in Iraq. independent and democratic country. . . . It is too early to claim success and we know —Kevin Ryan Upon taking office in January 2009, the next how fragile progress in Iraq can be . . . When president will need to rationally and thought- fully consider America’s national interests in a R future Iraq. . . . Military advisors will likely E T N recommend that the president maintain E C enough troops in Iraq to hold hard-won gains. R E F L

. . . This will likely lead the next president, E whether Republican or Democrat, to seriously B consider a longer-term commitment to Iraq.”

Calls for Action on Economy (continued from page 1) that the euro could surpass the dollar within 10 years as the leading international currency. Frankel explains that this matters both for economic reasons—“the U.S. would lose the ‘exorbitant privilege’ of being able to finance its international deficits easily”—and geopolitically. “In the past, U.S. deficits have been man- ageable because allies have been willing to pay a financial price to support American global leadership; they correctly have seen it to be in Commanding Decisions: Anthony Zinni (right), retired four-star general in the United States Marine their interests,” Frankel wrote on his blog in Corps and former commander-in-chief of Central Command, speaks to Belfer Center faculty and staff March. The next time the U.S. needs other in Februry about military and security challenges. Zinni was responsible for overseeing U.S. military central banks to bail out the dollar, Frankel activity in the Arab Gulf and Central Asia from 1997 to 2000. Tad Oelstrom, adjunct lecturer in said, they may not do it as willingly. public policy and director of the Kennedy School National Security Program, is also pictured.

4 These pages feature a few of the talented women and men who are current and former fellows and associates of the Belfer Center whose work is making significant contributions in public and private sectors around the world. BELFERFellows andCENTER Alums Emma Belcher Project on Managing the Atom/ International Security Program languages (Arabic) from the Uni- adviser on national security and international versity of Melbourne, Australia. affairs in the Department of the Prime Minis- Belcher’s current work exam- ter and Cabinet. ines the Proliferation Security Ini- tiative (PSI)—a loose association of states which undertakes to Being a fellow at the Belfer intercept WMD, their compo- Center has been invaluable for nents, and delivery systems—as receiving constructive criticism an example of international coop- eration outside the traditional from leading experts . . . nonproliferation treaties. She seeks to determine state motiva- “Being a fellow at the Belfer Center has tion for participation and address been invaluable for receiving constructive criti- claims of illegitimacy given its cism from leading experts, as well as for the informal nature. opportunity to develop professional networks mma Belcher’s research focuses on inter- An Australian citizen, Belcher was an with my peers and future colleagues,” Belcher Enational cooperation to prevent weapons exchange student at Georgetown University in says. “Having worked for government and seen of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation to 1997 when she developed an interest in the the potential contribution to policy formation states and non-state actors. Belcher is a PhD role of nuclear weapons in statecraft. Since that academic institutions can make, it’s been a candidate at the Fletcher School, where she then, Belcher has spent eight years in the U.S., privilege to be associated with an institution as completed her masters in 2004 and was edi- mainly in Washington, D.C. where she worked engaged and vibrant as the Belfer Center.” tor-in-chief of the Fletcher Forum of World at the Australian Embassy. In 2005, Belcher Affairs. She also holds a diploma in modern returned to Australia to serve as a policy

Barzegar is assistant professor of interna- meeting with policymakers has been very ben- Kayhan Barzegar tional relations at Science and Research Cam- eficial for me. Also, having the chance to Project on Managing the Atom/ pus, Tehran Azad University, and teaches at the directly discuss with them the regional issues International Security Program School of International Relations. He is also a and Iran’s foreign policy aims and demands is senior research fellow at the Center for Middle the best way of advancing mutual understand- ayhan Barzegar’s research at the Belfer East Strategic Studies and Center for Strategic ing. I can transfer my experience at the Belfer KCenter focuses on Iran’s foreign policy in Research (CSR) in Tehran. In 2002–’03, he Center to my research institutes as well as my the post-9/11 Middle East and especially in was a post-doctorate research fellow at the students upon my return to Iran.” post-invasion Iraq. He examines the aims, London School of Economics. An expert in strategies, and the prospects of Iran’s relations Middle East politics and Iran’s foreign policy, with regional countries and outside powers, Barzegar has published on Middle East issues Fellows on the Move especially the United States. He also researches and participated in several international con- Boaz Atzili (ISP) will begin a new position in the politics of Iran’s nuclear program, focusing ferences on the Middle East, Iran-U.S. rela- the fall as assistant professor in the School of on the views from inside Iran. tions, and political-security issues in the Persian Gulf. International Service of American University in Washington, D.C. Kristin Bakke (ICP/ISP) will take a position Having the chance to directly as assistant professor in the Department of discuss [with policymakers] the Political Science, Leiden University, The regional issues and Iran’s for- Netherlands. Emily Balic (ICP/ISP) will be a fellow at the eign policy aims and demands Remarque Institute at New York University. is the best way of advancing Jonathan Caverley (ISP) will join the political mutual understanding. science faculty of Northwestern University as an assistant professor. “I am experiencing a great time at the Erica Chenoweth (ISP) will be assistant pro- Belfer Center,” Barzegar says. “Having worked fessor of government at Wesleyan University. with research institutes and executive elites in With a Department of Homeland Security Tehran, I am happy to have the opportunity to grant, she also will collect and analyze the share the views and realities of inside Iran with effectiveness of counterterrorism policies in the other fellows and researchers at the Kennedy Middle East from 1980–2004. School. Attending the Center’s seminars and 5 Belfer Center Programs and Projects: International Security Program (ISP); Science, Technology, and Public Policy (STPP); Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP); Program on Intrastate Conflict (ICP); Dubai Initiative (DI); Energy Technology Innovation Project (ETIP); and Alums Project on Managing the Atom (MTA); Science, Technology, and Globalization Project (STG); CENTERPreventive Defense Project (PDP); Broadmoor Project; Project on India and the Subcontinent; Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements; Initiative on Religion in International Affairs Bill Haney, Renaissance Man: Doing Something About Many Things That Matter S

hen Bill Haney was a freshman at improving maternal and neonatal health care N O I

Harvard, he launched a company in Latin America and the Caribbean in a med- T W C U

that provided air pollution systems for power ically sound and culturally sensitive manner. D O R

plants—systems now in use throughout the Since the launch of the pilot program in the P N

world. Since then, he has helped start almost Dominican Republic—working with commu- O M

20 technology companies. His most recent nities to use and enhance existing health ser- M O C

business venture is the development of cost- vices with needed medical supplies and N efficient, environmentally sound homes that equipment, training, and recommended inter- U dramatically reduce the environmental foot- ventions—infant mortality in the target print of conventional houses and can be built province has dropped 40 percent. With plans in a week. These Blu Homes will soon be on to be helping more than 30,000 mothers and the market. children each year by the end of 2008, Infante Haney, a research fellow with the Belfer Sano intends to begin operations in its second Center’s Environment and Natural Resources country in 2010. Program (1997–2001), was at the Kennedy School in February not to talk about his envi- ronmentally sensitive homes, but to introduce Most important is to “work The Price of Sugar, his most recent documen- passionately on something to work collaboratively on issues he cared tary film. One of a dozen films he has written that matters.” about “most deeply and pragmatically.” and produced, The Price of Sugar, narrated by —Bill Haney Also, Haney says, “Graham’s particular Paul Newman, focuses on thousands of dis- blend of passion, compassion, and irreverence possessed Haitians who toil in the Dominican is a very compelling force. He has a magical Republic under armed-guard on plantations Haney credits his years at Harvard for way of engaging and inspiring young people.” harvesting sugarcane, much of which ends up inspiring and motivating his entrepreneurial Others at the Kennedy School have also in U.S. kitchens. The film was shortlisted for activities. As an undergraduate, he met Belfer had a significant impact on Haney. Henry the 2008 Academy Awards. In addition, Center Director Graham Allison, and that Lee, director of the Environment and Natural Haney has just completed a full-length feature continuing relationship brought him to the Resources Program, is a mentor and friend. film about the impact of U.S. drug laws on the Belfer Center as a fellow many years later. “Henry is a very deep, effective, selfless rights of poor people. American Violet should After working on environmental and natural thinker on environmental and natural be in movie theatres within a year. resources issues for 20 years, he applied for a resources issues,” Haney says—someone he Haney is also the co-founder and president fellowship because he thought the Kennedy continues to call upon for ideas. He also has of Infante Sano, a nonprofit dedicated to School would allow him the best opportunity high praise for Joseph McCarthy, senior asso- ciate dean at the Kennedy School. “Joe may well be the most humane single person I’ve Fotini Christia (ISP) will begin a tenure track Adria Lawrence (ICP/ISP) has accepted a ever met,” Haney says. “In his quiet, gracious, assistant professor position in political science position as assistant professor in the Depart- humble way, he makes a difference in people’s at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. ment of Political Science at Yale University. lives every single day.” Erik J. Dahl (ISP), now Dr. Dahl, will join Wendy Pearlman (ICP/ISP) has been named Haney’s experience at the Kennedy School the faculty of the Naval Postgraduate School in assistant professor in the Department of Politi- helped convince him that perhaps his most Monterey, California, as an assistant professor cal Science at Northwestern University. effective way to make a difference was through of national security affairs. Jeremy Pressman (ISP 2002–’03) is the author “bringing ideas to life,” whether through non- profits, films, or companies. Christopher Elders (ISP) will move to New of the forthcoming WARRING FRIENDS: “Almost everybody asks ‘what can I do to York City next year as an associate at the law Alliance Restraint in International Politics, to be leave things better?’” Haney says. “I don’t firm of Cravath Swaine & Moore. published by Cornell University Press in June 2008. think my interest in doing that is any different Matthew Fuhrmann (MTA/ISP), now Dr. from anybody else’s.” Most important, he says, Fuhrmann, has accepted a job as an assistant Stephanie Rupp (ICP/ISP) will be an assistant is to “work passionately on something that professor in the department of political science professor in the Department of Anthropology matters.” Also, he adds, you have to be willing at the University of South Carolina, beginning at Lehman College, City University of New to take chances and to try things where you in January 2009. York. might fail. Sarah Kreps (ISP) has accepted a tenure track Wang Shacheng (ISP) was awarded the Stu- Asked if there one venture of which Haney position in the Department of Government at dent Stars of Peking University in January. He is most proud, he hesitates only an instant. Cornell University. was one of only 12 students to obtain the title “When someone walks up to you with a Matthew Kroenig (MTA/ISP) will begin in of honor in 2008. healthy baby and tells you that the baby would not be alive without the hospital you the fall as an assistant professor in Georgetown u University’s Department of Government and helped equip—it doesn’t get much better Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. than that.” 6 Dormandy, Abbas Analyze Significance A Clear Verdict of Pakistan Elections by Hassan Abbas (Excerpt from the Guardian, February 19, 2008) T R

A Xenia Dormandy, director of the Belfer Center’s Project on India and the Subconti- he verdict is clear. Pakistan has shown W

E nent, was an election monitor in Pakistan during February’s parliamentary elections. the door to the mullahs and delivered a T

S T

A Hassan Abbas, PhD, research fellow with the Project on India and the Subcontinent, stern warning to Musharraf. . . . As a result, H T

R is a former Pakistani government official. Their complete commentary on the elections Musharraf’s future looks bleak, while Pakistan A

M is at http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18108 and 18069. gets a fighting chance to puts its house in order. u The most significant victory of all was that won by the secular and Pashtun nationalist Reflections on the Process by Xenia Dormandy party, the Awami National Party (ANP) in the volatile North-West Frontier Province . . . [I]n n the run-up to the February 18 elections, I And while women have clearly been disenfran- Swat, which was in the eye of the Islamist mili- Iwas focused on events in Pakistan that high- chised and problems continue, there were a tancy storm recently, the ANP won compre- lighted an undemocratic and corrupt system. number of separate polling places set up for hensively, establishing that ordinary Pashtuns Observing the elections, however, gave me new women. Those with whom I spoke did not feel are not supportive of extremist forces. insights into Pakistan’s democracy. It is a lesson disenfranchised. taught to me not by the politicians or the While the Pakistani election process is far elites, but by the people of Pakistan. Those I from perfect—with old and inaccurate elec- It is going to be an uphill met—men and women, young and old, toral rolls, stolen ballots, ghost polling stations, task to form a stable, focused wealthy and poor—care deeply about their and political pressure on voters— I came away and accountable government country and their freedom to vote. I saw at with a profound respect for the men and least as many young people voting, presiding women on the street who are engaged despite dedicated to the well-being as election monitors, or present as political these problems and who want to see change. of the people. agents, as I did the older generation. The United States has long supported democracy in Pakistan, but at the same time R

One other fac- E

has supported President Musharraf. Through- T N

tor worth taking E

I came away with a profound out the past year, the Pakistani people have C

into account is the R made clear their desire to have him move E F respect for the men and women L success of women E

aside, a message that rang out on election day. B on the street who are engaged The time has come for the U.S. to align its candidates in 12 despite these problems and actions with the democratic values it espouses. national and who want to see change. The U.S. should assist with building edu- provincial con- cation and health systems and should put pres- stituencies. The sure on the government to reengage with its major parties Given the cost of the National Identity people and bring back into the fold those now fielded a number Card required before one can vote in most disenfranchised, most notably women and resi- of women candi- places, it is wise to question whether the poor dents of the Tribal Areas and Baluchistan. This dates, and most of had an opportunity to be heard. The turnout does not mean stopping support of the mili- them won—a in the underprivileged and rural areas was gen- tary, which will continue to play a central role healthy trend in a country where in some rural erally higher than in the wealthier urban com- in Pakistan for a while to come. It does mean areas women were stopped from voting by munities. In many poverty stricken areas, recognizing that what for the U.S. may be an their male “guardians.” voters were bused in by the political parties. effort to root out extremists is for Pakistanis Despite all these positive trends, however, Perhaps they were paid to vote “appropriately,” domestic upheaval that does not tend to win Pakistan’s problems are far from being over. It but they did have the opportunity to vote. hearts and minds. is going to be an uphill task to form a stable, focused and accountable government dedicated to the wellbeing of the people. Developing a Alex Farrell: Energy Expert, Colleague, and Friend consensus among coalition parties in the cen- ter and then sticking to it will be a challenge in itself. Religious extremism can also raise its lexander Farrell, an associate professor major study for California on how the state ugly head at any time. . . . This early period is in the Energy and Resources Depart- can implement climate change policy. Last A the most challenging of all. ment at the University of California, Berkeley, year, Farrell was asked to join the Roundtable The new government will be under tremen- and a former Belfer Center fellow, passed away on Sustainable Biofuels, a new international dous public pressure to bring back the deposed in April at his home in San Francisco. As a fel- panel of environmental, energy, economic, and judges, and that could sound a death knell for low in 1997–’98 with the Center’s Environ- cultural experts developing standards by which the Musharraf presidency. For the army, institu- ment and Natural Resources Program, nations and consumers can judge biofuels and tional interests, saving prestige, and influence Farrell worked on the Global Environmental their impact on the environment and society. will be more important than rescuing a presi- Assessment Project and co-authored its book “Alex was an original thinker, tireless dent who continues to shoot himself in the Assessments of Regional and Global Environmen- worker, and a delightful colleague,” said foot. The west in general—and Britain and the tal Risks. At the time of his death, he was rec- William Clark, Harvey Brooks Professor of U.S. in particular—must show patience while ognized internationally as a leading expert on International Science, Public Policy, and democratic forces settle—at least as much transportation fuels and the role of transporta- Human Development, who worked with patience as they showed with military dictators. tion in climate change. Farrell on the Global Assessment Project. “His This is the very least that the people of Pakistan Most recently, Farrell was the coordinating death is a major loss to the cause of sustainable earned in February’s elections. lead author of the transportation chapter of a energy development.” 7 N O T Y A R D

T Elaine Kamarck N E K Q&A With the current attention on the role of super-delegates in the selection of a Democratic candidate for president, we asked Elaine Kamarck, Kennedy School lecturer in public policy, if we might reprint a portion of her doctoral dissertation on the history of super-delegates. Her dissertation, “Structure as Strategy: Presidential Nominating Politics Since Reform,” was sub- mitted to the political science department of the University of California, Berkeley in 1986. The following is extracted from the original. Kamarck will serve as a super-delegate at the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

A History of ‘Super-Delegates’ in the Democratic Party by Elaine Kamarck

essons of the 1980 Democratic conven- nists. Kennedy supporters on the Commission Ltion and nomination race were not lost on In a statement that reflects the feared that a large number of senators and the members of the Hunt Commission (named sense of helplessness with . . . congressmen at the convention could stop for its Chair Governor Jim Hunt of North him. On the other hand, former Vice Presi- Carolina) as they met to write delegate selec- the events of the 1980 nomina- dent Walter Mondale felt certain that a large tion rules for the 1984 nomination season. The tion season, Hunt said,“We number of these delegates would favor him 1980 race had concluded in an especially bitter must also give our convention and his operatives, and he, therefore, embraced and contentious convention fight between Pres- the 30 percent number. ident Jimmy Carter and Senator Edward more flexibility to respond to Organized feminists, on and off the Com- Kennedy. The convention fight had centered changing circumstances . . .” mission, however, made a new argument. upon Rule 11 (H) that bound delegates to sup- Speaking on their behalf, Technical Advisory port the candidate in whose name they were Committee Member Susan Estrich of Massa- Governor Hunt, chair of the Commission, elected. Senator Kennedy’s campaign, in an chusetts argued that creating a new category of also made the inclusion of more elected offi- effort to convince Carter delegates that they delegates who were not subject to the fair cials a top priority. In a statement that reflects should abandon Carter and support him, reflection and candidate right of approval rules the sense of helplessness with which many waged a series of platform and rules challenges would create a new status of delegate which elected officials had watched the events of the culminating in the fight over Rule 11 (H). she referred to as “super-delegates.” These dele- 1980 nomination season, Hunt said, “We In short order the Commission agreed to gates, argued Estrich, would be overwhelm- must also give our convention more flexibility get rid of the controversial Rule 11(H) and ingly white and male. Even were they balanced to respond to changing circumstances and, in replace it with a less intrusive rule, but one by an equal number of women in the total del- cases where the voters’ mandate is less than that, nevertheless, urged delegates to vote for egation, there would still be the problem of clear, to make a reasoned choice. One step in the presidential candidate they had been “equal power.” The “super-delegates,” because this direction would be to loosen the much- elected to support. The new 11 (H) read: of their greater flexibility in the choice of a disputed “binding” Rule 11 (H) as it applies to “Delegates elected to the national conven- nominee, would have greater power than the all delegates. An equally important step would tion pledged to a presidential candidate shall female delegates committed to presidential be to permit a substantial number of party in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of candidates. (“Unintended Consequences,” by leaders and elected official delegates to be those who elected them.” (This rule exists Susan Estrich, Memorandum to the Hunt selected without requiring a prior declaration today, in 2008, as Rule 12 (J) of the delegate Commission, September 9, 1981.) of preference. We would then return a measure selection rules and has not changed since.) The issue was finally resolved through a of decision-making power and discretion to Yet the exorcism of Rule 11 (H) was not compromise created by Congresswoman the organized party and increase the incentive sufficient to solve the deep doubts about the Geraldine Ferraro. The Ferraro Proposal it has to offer elected officials for serious nominating system that had arisen as the result reduced the total number of un-pledged dele- involvement.” (Remarks of Governor Jim of the bitter rules and platform fights at the gates to 566 or 14 percent of the Convention, Hunt, Institute of Politics, JFK School of Gov- 1980 Convention. Congressmen, stung by the but it left selection of the Congressional dele- ernment, December 15, 1981) lack of impact they had been able to have on gates in the hands of the House and Senate Hunt was joined by the AFL-CIO and the the 1980 process, and fearing that 1984 would Democratic Caucuses. (See Bringing Back the Democratic State Chairs’ Association in calling be a repeat, banded together to ask that two- Parties, by David Price, Congressional Quar- for a plan whereby 30 percent of the 1984 thirds of the Democratic Members of the terly Press, 1984) The 14 percent number was convention would be composed of uncommit- House be elected by the House Caucus as far short of the original proposal that 30 per- ted delegates drawn from the ranks of party uncommitted voting delegates to the 1984 cent of the convention be unpledged. How- leaders and elected officials. Ironically, this Convention. Led by Congressman Gillis ever, if the number had been much larger, it number is close to the number of delegates (38 Long, chairman of the House Democratic would have been practically impossible to percent) who had gone into conventions Caucus, members asserted that they had a spe- meet the equal division between men and “unaffiliated” in the pre-reform years. Only a cial role to play in the nomination process and women requirements in the rules. large number of unbound delegates—who had in the platform process. In his testimony not been required, by virtue of filing deadlines u before the Hunt Commission, Long put the and fair reflection rules, to declare a presiden- Super-delegates today, in 2008, are no longer views of the Democratic Caucus as follows: tial preference early—could return a modicum elected by congressional caucus. There have “We in the House, as the last vestige of of flexibility or deliberativeness to the post- been some additions over the years and thus Democratic control at the national level, reform conventions. the total number of super delegates as a pro- believe we have a special responsibility to Opposition to this proposal came from portion of the convention has increased by develop new innovative approaches that supporters of Senator Edward Kennedy (who, about five percent to 19 percent. respond to our Party’s constituencies.” (Testi- at the time was expected to make another run mony before the Hunt Commission, Novem- for the presidency) and from organized femi- ber 6, 1981) 8 R E T N E C R E F

L Providing Leadership . . . Advancing Policy E B BELFER SPEAKERS

Man in the Know: Donald Kerr R E T

(right), principal deputy director of N E

national intelligence (PDDNI) and a C R E

former Belfer Center International F L E

Security Program scholar-in- B residence (1992–’93), speaks to Belfer Center faculty and fellows about intelligence challenges at a directors’ seminar in April. Kerr previously served in the CIA and FBI and was the fourth director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, where he also led research in high altitude weapons effects, nuclear test detection and analysis, and other Getting the Scoop: Journalist and best-selling author programs. Seated next to Kerr is Bob Woodward answers a student’s question Military Assistant to the PDDNI during a discussion regarding his writing about the Captain James Bjostad. Bush administration. Woodward was invited to speak in April to the Kennedy School class “Central Challenges of American Foreign Policy,” taught by R E

Belfer Center Director Graham Allison and T N

Belfer Center Senior Fellow Meghan O’Sullivan. E C R E F R L E E T B N E C R E F L E B

Global Partners: British Prime Minister Gordon Brown (right) talks with Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (left) and Charles W. Eliot University Professor and Center board member Lawrence Summers. Truth to Tell: Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch, International Security Program Brown met with a small group at the Kennedy School during a visit to (ISP) research fellow, speaks in March on “And the Truth Shall Make You Boston in April. In a speech at the Kennedy Library, Brown urged Europe Free:The International Norm of Truth-Seeking” at an ISP seminar. A PhD and the U.S. to increase cooperation to solve global problems. candidate in the Department of Political Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, she is researching the spread of norms in the R E international system such as post-conflict truth commissions. T N E C R R E E F T L N E E B C R E F L E B

Knowing NATO: Lieutenant General Karl Eikenberry (right), deputy Shaking Addiction: David Sandalow, senior fellow at the Brookings chairman of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Military Institution and chair of the Energy and Climate Working Group of the Committee in Brussels, speaks at a March seminar on “NATO: Current Clinton Global Initiative, discusses his book Freedom from Oil: How the Next Operations and Future Challenges.” Eikenberry’s previous assignment was President Can End the United States’ Oil Addiction at a February directors’ as commander of the Combined Forces Command–Afghanistan. Also lunch. Sandalow, a former assistant secretary of state for oceans, pictured (left to right): Center Executive Director for Research Eric environment and science, is joined by Kelly Sims Gallagher, director of Rosenbach and University Distinguished Service Professor and Center the Belfer Center’s Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group. board member Joseph Nye.

9 R. AdvancingSPEAKERS Policy-Relevant Knowledge I R E Iranian Expectations: V E T L N A

E Nicholas Burns H C S

R (right), former under U E F C

L secretary of state for R E A B

political affairs, speaks M at a John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum in March on the future of the U.S.-Iran relationship. Burns argued that Iran threatens U.S. national security because of its growing regional power, pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, and support for groups that oppose Arabian Reform? Karen Elliott House, senior fellow at the Belfer America’s presence in the Middle East. Joining him in the Forum discussion was Ashton Center, leads a discussion on “Reform in Saudi Arabia: Movement or Carter, co-director of the Belfer Center’s Preventive Defense Project. Mirage?” during a Center directors’ lunch in March. House, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter and former editor and executive at the Wall

Street Journal, is researching internal and external forces shaping R E political evolution in Saudi Arabia. Steven Miller, director of the T N E

Belfer Center’s International Security Program, is also pictured. C R E

F Moving Forward: Montek L E R B

E Singh Ahluwalia, deputy T

N chairman of the Planning E C Commission of the R E

F Government of India, L E

B speaks on “A Trajectory for India” at a seminar hosted by the Center’s Project on India and the Subcontinent in April. Ahluwalia, who was appointed to the post in 2004, played a critical role in reforming India’s economy in the 1990s under the current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Ahluwalia served previously in India as finance secretary, secretary in the Department of Economic Affairs, Pakistan Power: Shaukat Aziz (right), former prime minister of commerce secretary, and special secretary to the prime minister. Pakistan, speaks at a directors’ lunch in March on challenges and opportunities facing Pakistan. Prior to his tenure as prime minister,

Aziz served as Pakistan’s minister of finance and was an elected R E member of the Pakistan National Assembly. Also pictured: Eric T N E

Rosenbach, executive director for research at the Belfer Center. C R E F L E B R

Practicing Physics: E T

Robert Frosch N , E Science,Technology, C R E F

and Public Policy L E

Program senior B research associate, discusses “Application Oriented R&D: Aphorisms and Anecdotes” at an Energy Technology Innovation Policy (ETIP) seminar in March. Frosch, a theoretical physicist Continuing Crunch: Niall Ferguson (right), Laurence A.Tisch Professor of History at also known as the Harvard and member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors, discusses “The “father of industrial Geopolitics of the Credit Crunch” with members of the Center’s International Council. ecology,” is a former administrator of NASA, assistant executive Ferguson said the U.S. economic crisis is worsening and will affect the country’s director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and position of power politically and economically. Council Chair James Schlesinger (left) vice president of General Motors in charge of Research Laboratories. and Council member Robert Belfer (center) joined the discussion.

10 E D I N I T S U SPOTLIGHTLawrence H. Summers J Lawrence H. Summers is Charles W. Eliot University Professor and a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors. He served as the 27th president of Harvard University from July 2001 until June 2006. Previously, he was U.S. Secretary of the Treasury following his earlier service as Deputy and Under Secretary of the Treasury and as Chief Economist of the World Bank. Prior to his government service, Summers was a professor of economics at Harvard and MIT.

ack in August 2007, most on Wall Street “I’ve been around some pretty smart peo- Band Capitol Hill believed the turmoil in ple,” Jonathan Gruber, M.I.T. economist and subprime mortgages could be contained. former student of Summers, told the New York Growth might be slower, they said, but the Times last year. “But it’s a different level with economy would still move forward. Larry.” But a small vanguard of economists— Summers frequently emphasizes the human among them Lawrence Summers, former trea- impact of the current economic woes. Many of sury secretary and a member of the Belfer his policy proposals call for helping those most Center Board of Directors—sounded a clear hurt by the current turmoil, including those It would be “premature to judge this [sub- warning bell. “The risks of recession are now on the verge of losing their homes. prime mortgage] crisis over,” in part because greater than they’ve been any time since the He is unsparing in his assessment of the “we can’t yet know that there aren’t more shoes period in the aftermath of 9/11,” Summers toll the economy is taking on American fami- to drop in the financial area.” told ABC’s “This Week.” He added—pre- lies. In December, Summers said during a Nov. 25, 2007 sciently, as it turned out—“we can’t yet know speech that, even during a mild recession, the “It is now clear that only a small part of the that there aren’t more shoes to drop in the average family stands to lose $5000 in income. financial distress that must be worked through financial area.” Speaking before the U.S. Senate Commit- has yet been faced. On even the most opti- Summers was one of the first economists to tee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs in mistic estimates, the rate of foreclosure will diagnose the current financial crisis, and his April, Summers predicted more distress ahead more than double over the next year as rates early calls to action fundamentally influenced and called for several additional steps to miti- reset on subprime mortgages and home values the debate. As far back as November 25, 2007, gate the current crisis. The continuing woes in fall.” when most were still scrambling to understand the housing market are likely to result in two —Financial Times, “Wake Up to the Dangers the problems, Summers was already looking million foreclosures within the next two years, of a Deepening Crisis” toward solutions. He said then that the gov- and 15 million homes where the outstanding ernment needed to have a fiscal policy package mortgage exceeds the current value of the “Fiscal policy needs to be on stand-by to pro- “on stand-by,” in case the situation worsened. home, Summers said. vide immediate temporary stimulus through By December 19, 2007, he was calling for spending or tax benefits for low- and middle- fiscal stimulus that was “timely, targeted and income families if the situation worsens.” temporary”—exactly what Congress passed [I]t is very difficult to —Financial Times, “Wake Up to the Dangers nearly two months later. defend . . . a bankruptcy code of a Deepening Crisis” Summers’ current recommendations have Dec. 19, 2007 been highly influential with policymakers, and that provides more protection for the third home of a wealthy “The most urgent priority for policy over the he has traveled several times to Washington, next several months is containing the incipient D.C. to testify before Congress and make pub- family than for the first home economic downturn.” lic speeches. Behind the scenes, he is advising of a working family. Congressional staff on legislation. • In even a relatively mild recession, the aver- Summers said close reading of the eco- —Lawrence Summers age family stands to lose $5000 in income. nomic data gave him confidence to speak out. • “Fiscal stimulus is critical but could be counterproductive if it is not timely, tar- “I don’t worry about providing as accurate He argued that the federal government judgments as I can,” he said. geted and temporary.” should, in selected cases, purchase and renego- • “It is reasonable to suggest that stimulus tiate mortgages that would otherwise force approaching $50–$75 billion—roughly in Summers said during a speech foreclosure. Additionally, Summers called for the range of 1/2 of 1% of GDP—is likely bankruptcy reform. that, even during a mild to be appropriate. The largest part of this “I believe it is very difficult to defend, at a stimulus should come in the form of tax recession, the average family time like the present, a bankruptcy code that cuts distributed equally among all taxpayers stands to lose $5000 in income. provides more protection for the third home of and recipients of tax refunds.” a wealthy family than for the first home of a —Speech at the Brookings Institution, working family,” Summers told the committee. “The State of the U.S. Economy.” Summers, once the youngest person to have Here is a rundown of Summers’ key eco- received tenure at modern-day Harvard, rose nomic analysis at the end of 2007 and begin- Jan. 27, 2008 rapidly to the top of his profession. After a stint ning of 2008: “Along with macro-economic stimulus in the as chief economist at the World Bank, he U.S., there is the need for further policy devel- Aug. 26, 2007 moved to the Treasury Department under Pres- opment in three other areas—repair of the Summers says: “The risks of recession are now ident Clinton and ultimately became treasury financial system, containing the damage caused greater than they’ve been any time since the secretary. He was president of Harvard from by the housing sector and assuring the global period in the aftermath of 9/11.” 2001 to 2006. Summers is now the Charles W. co-ordination of policy.” —ABC ’s “This Week” Eliot University Professor at Harvard and has —Financial Times, “Beyond Fiscal Stimulus, his home base at the Kennedy School. Further Action is Needed” 11 International Security • EnvironmentNEWSMAKERS and Natural Resources • Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at “THE PRESIDENT WHO TAKES OFFICE “[T]HE FED SHOULD PUSH FOR FUR- Harvard’s Kennedy School IN JANUARY 2009 should appoint someone THER EFFORTS TO RAISE CAPITAL. of Government, and former who has the president’s ear, whose sole respon- Consideration should be given to collective United States Senator Bob sibility will be to see that everything that must actions designed to destigmatise cutting divi- Graham, associate and former senior fellow be done to prevent a nuclear terrorist attack is dends or raising equity. The idea of linking at the Belfer Center, have been appointed being done, keeping these issues on the front access to Fed credit and measures to attract to the Commission on the Prevention of burner at the White House every day.” capital should also be explored. At a time Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation —Matthew Bunn, “The Risk Of Nuclear Ter- when much is being given to financial institu- and Terrorism, a newly formed congres- rorism—And Next Steps To Reduce The Dan- tion shareholders and management, action to sional commission. ger,” testimony to Senate Homeland Security help the economy and protect the taxpayer should be expected in return.” Former Senator Bob Gra- and Government Affairs Committee (April 2, ham recently opened the 2008) —Lawrence Summers, “Steps That Can Safe- Bob Graham Center for guard America’s Economy,” Financial Times “EVERY NEW PRESIDENT HAS ABOUT (March 30, 2008) Public Service at the Univer- A YEAR when they can better achieve goals sity of Florida. The Graham and changes because of their fresh mandate “THE POTENTIAL COLLAPSE OF Center takes a multidiscipli- from the people . . . [The authors] propose a HOUSE PRICES, accompanied by wide- nary approach to solving problems related three-part framework for combating terrorism spread mortgage defaults, is a major threat to to public policy, focusing specifically on that involves drying up support for terrorism, the American economy. . . . Although there is public leadership, public problems in the improving our intelligence capabilities and no perfect plan, a program of federal mort- Americas, and homeland security. rethinking our approach to homeland security.” gage-paydown loans to individuals, secured by Albert Carnesale, Lucius N. —Richard Clarke (with Rob Knake), future income rather than by a formal mort- Littauer Professor of Political “Counter-Terrorism Issues for the Next Presi- gage, could reduce the number of mortgages Economy at the Kennedy dent,” CTC Sentinel (February 2008) with high LTV ratios and cut future defaults.” School and member of the —Martin Feldstein, “How to Stop the Mort- Belfer Center Board of “FOR MUCH OF THE PAST TWO gage Crisis,” Wall Street Journal (March 7, Directors, has been named DECADES, Americans have watched in frus- 2007) chair of the Committee for Sustaining and tration as presidents and members of Congress Improving the Nation’s Nuclear Forensics have repeatedly achieved deadlock rather than “WHILE THE CANDIDATES KEEP TALK- Capabilities at the National Academies. The consensus on issues that are critical to our ING ABOUT JOBS GOING OVERSEAS, project will examine the United States’ nation. . . . The next president can’t do it the irony is that over the past year, trade is nuclear forensics capabilities, discuss their alone. If we are to break the cycle of partisan helping to stave off the recession. Since early findings, and provide recommendations for gridlock, others who have contributed to the 2007, the US trade deficit has actually nar- improvement. disease must also help with the cure.” rowed by $50bn as exports have increased William C. Clark, Harvey —Bob Graham, “How to End the Gridlock,” more rapidly than imports.” Brooks Professor of Interna- Washington Post (January 30, 2008) —Robert Lawrence, “Much Ado About tional Science, Public Policy NAFTA,” Guardian.com (March 6, 2008) “IF SO MUCH AS A SUBSTANTIAL and Human Development at FRACTION OF THE WORLD’S SCIEN- “WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A MAJOR Harvard Kennedy School TISTS AND ENGINEERS resolved to NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE. Countries in and member of the Belfer [“tithe” 10 percent of your professional time the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Center Board of Directors, and effort to working in these and other ways Southeast Asia have all expressed a desire to has been appointed chair of to increase the benefits of S&T for the human begin or revive civilian nuclear programs. Bar- the Harvard Greenhouse Gas condition and to decrease the liabilities] . . . tering nuclear technology for oil is sure to lead Emissions Reduction Task the acceleration of progress toward sustainable to the further spread of nuclear weapons.” Force by Harvard President well-being for all of Earth’s inhabitants would Drew Faust. Science, Tech- —Matthew Fuhrmann, “Oil for Nukes – surprise us all.” nology, and Public Policy Program Director mostly a bad idea” Christian Science Monitor John P. Holdren has also been named by —John P. Holdren, “Science and Technology (February 29, 2008) President Faust to serve on the task force, for Sustainable Well-Being,” Science (January 25, 2007) “ALTHOUGH DESCRIPTIONS OF THE which is comprised of a small group of PRECEPTS AND BELIEFS GUIDING AL- Harvard faculty, students, and staff. The “BECAUSE LOW-INCOME HOUSE- QA’IDA and its associates as ideological in task force is charged with examining the HOLDS devote greater shares of their income nature certainly hit the mark, few serious university’s greenhouse gas emissions and to energy and transportation costs than do attempts have been made to justify the use of developing a recommendation for a green- higher-income households, virtually any cli- the term “ideology” in connection with the house gas reducing goal. mate policy will place relatively greater burdens Salafi-jihad—the guiding doctrine of al-Qa’ida, Kelly Sims Gallagher, on low-income households. But because cap its affiliates, associates and progeny.” adjunct lecturer and director and trade will minimize energy-related and —Assaf Moghadam, “The Salafi-Jihad as a of the Belfer Center’s Energy other costs, it holds an important advantage in Religious Ideology,” CTC Sentinel (February Technology Innovation Pol- this regard over conventional regulations.” 2008) icy research group, has been —Robert Stavins, “State Fight Against Cli- invited to serve as a lead mate Change Benefits Everyone,” Sacramento “SINCE THE SHOCK OF 9/11, the United author of the Global Energy Assessment, Bee (March 16, 2008) States has been exporting fear and anger, rather focusing on policy for energy innovation. than our more traditional values of hope and The Global Energy Assessment is a major optimism. Abu Ghraib and Guantánamo have initiative created to help global leaders. become more powerful global icons of America 12 MAKERS• Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict Calestous Juma, Professor of the Practice of International than the Statue of Liberty. Terrorism is a real “THE CONCERN NOW IS THAT Development and director of threat and likely to be with us for decades, but CHÁVEZ IS AMPLIFYING AN EXTER- the Belfer Center’s Science, over-responding to the provocations of extrem- NAL THREAT to distract Venezuelans from Technology, and Globaliza- ists does us more damage than the terrorists domestic malaise. His saber-rattling, however, tion project, has been ever could.” runs the risk of escalation. What started out as appointed a special advisor to the Interna- —Joseph Nye, “Toward a Liberal Realist For- a domestic prop could easily lead to outright tional Whaling Commission (IWC). Juma’s eign Policy: A Memo for the Next President,” conflict if one side or the other miscalculates.” assignment is to advise on the future of the Harvard Magazine (March–April 2008) —Sarah Kreps, “Chávez Rattles His Saber,” commission, which is divided between those International Herald Tribune (March 6, 2008) who want to resume commercial whaling “THIS SPRING THE U.S. IS TEMPORAR- and those who do not. ILY PUTTING 3,200 MORE MARINES “ALTHOUGH MUGABE PROMISED THE INTO AFGHANISTAN to help fill the gap AFRICAN UNION that the elections would Matthew Meselson, Thomas —the same number of Marines withdrawn be fair, it has been clear for months that Dudley Cabot Professor of from Iraq last September in the initial rollback Mugabe intends to win, by fair means or foul. the Natural Sciences and a of the surge. The swap is emblematic of the No independent foreign observers will be member of the Belfer Center fact that we have no surplus U.S. troops to allowed to watch the election or the centralized Board of Directors, has dis- send to commanders in Afghanistan. If you counting at a ‘command center’ controlled by covered with Harvard gradu- want more troops in Afghanistan, you pretty Mugabe.” ate student Eugene Gladyshev that a tiny much have to take them out of Iraq.” —Robert I. Rotberg, “Politics and Power in aquatic animal—the bdelloid rotifer—is able to withstand far more radiation than Zimbabwe,” Boston Globe (March 26, 2008) —Kevin Ryan, “Is It Wise to Pause in Iraq?” any other known animal. The finding is sig- Orlando Sentinel (February 25, 2008) “AFRICA’S URGENT NEED FOR AGRI- nificant for the impact it may have on treat- “FORTUNATELY, PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR CULTURAL MODERNIZATION IS ment of cancer, inflammation, and other WEAPONS ARE SECURED BY ITS ARMY, BEING RUDELY IGNORED. When elite medical issues. the country’s most effective national institu- urbanites in rich countries began turning away Richard Rosecrance, tion. . . . In contrast, a government that truly from science-based farming in the 1980s, adjunct professor at Harvard reflects the current views of the Pakistani peo- external assistance for agriculture in poor Kennedy School and senior ple is more likely to be an unspoken opponent countries was cut sharply. . . . In this fashion, fellow with the Center’s than an ambiguous ally in the US war against and perhaps without realizing it, wealthy coun- International Security Pro- Al Qaeda and other terrorists in the region.” tries are imposing the richest of tastes on the gram, has been awarded the poorest of people.” —Graham Allison, “Reading the Tea Leaves International Studies Association Distin- in Pakistan,” Boston Globe (February 21, 2008) —Robert Paarlberg, “Africa’s Organic Farms; guished Scholar Award. The award com- Food Fantasies,” International Herald Tribune mends Rosecrance for his 50 years of “THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRENGTH, (March 1, 2008) outstanding work in international security MILITARY STRATEGY AND LEADERSHIP as well as his mentoring of scholars who QUALITY OF THE TALIBAN in Pakistan’s “MANY BELIEVE THAT CHINA SHOULD have become leaders in the field. FLEX ITS DIPLOMATIC MUSCLE by vot- tribal territories has qualitatively improved dur- Monica Duffy Toft, associ- ing the last few years. . . . Today, Pakistan’s ing for coercive measures, such as sanctions on countries with problems, such as Iran. It ate professor of public policy indigenous Taliban are an effective fighting and member of the Belfer force and are engaging the Pakistani military on remains to be seen whether sanctions are effec- tive in making the world more secure.” Center Board of Directors, one side and NATO forces on the other” has been named a 2008 —Hassan Abbas, “A Profile of Tehrik-i-Tal- —Anne Wu, “Flexing Muscles in the Year of Carnegie Scholar by the iban Pakistan” CTC Sentinel (January 2008) the Rat?” San Francisco Chronicle (February 22, Carnegie Foundation of New York. The 2008) prestigious award, which grants scholars up “THE TROUBLE WITH WAVES is that SUPERDELEGATES PLAY AN IMPOR- to $100,000 to advance the public dialogue sooner or later they break. Every year, the on Islam, will enable Toft to further her think-tank Freedom House awards scores to TANT ROLE because it’s such a close cam- paign, but they were created for precisely the research on the role that Islam and other the countries of the world according to their religions play in civil conflicts. degrees of political freedom. According to the situation we may be in: to break a dead tie. . . . latest figures, no fewer than 57 countries have They’re not going to turn aside the will of the Lifeng Zhao, Energy Tech- suffered a democratic ebb in the past five voters, unless there is some compelling reason nology Innovation Policy years.” to do that.” (ETIP) fellow, has been —Elaine Kamarck, quoted in “If Superdele- invited to serve as a lead —Niall Ferguson, “Slow but Sure,” Financial author of the Global Energy Times (January 26, 2007) gates Pick Nominee, Democrats Face Back- lash,” Christian Science Monitor (February 20, Assessment. “THE LONG-TERM TRUCE THAT 2008) The Belfer Center website HAMAS HAS OFFERED ISRAEL should be (www.belfercenter.org) has seen in a new light, because it offers all sides been selected as an Official meaningful gains that can halt the current Honoree for the Politics cate- deterioration, while creating a new foundation gory in the 12th Annual for possible political breakthroughs. And both Webby Awards, the leading sides should welcome that as fiercely as they international awards honor- (To read op-eds in full, see Publications on the now fight militarily.” Belfer Center website: www.belfercenter.org) ing excellence on the Internet. Distinction is awarded to work that scores in the top 15 —Rami G. Khouri, “Fighting for a Cease- —Compiled by Courtney Anderson, Fire,” AgenceGlobal (March 10, 2008) Communications Office percent of all sites entered from 50 states and 60 countries. 13 La République de Dieu By Charles Cogan; Editions Jacob-Duvernet HOT OFF (February 2008) La République de Dieu is a collection of essays on the idea of God (“Comment peut-on croire?”), on THE PRESSES evangelism and its influ- ence on public policy (“La Starved for Science: How Biotechnology Is for measuring and assessing repression, helping République de Dieu”), and Being Kept Out of Africa policymakers to establish priorities. on Islamic fundamentalism (“L’Islam médiéval”). It is By Robert Paarlberg; Harvard University Press followed by empirical (February 2008) “. . . an unparalleled contribution to the growing and vital field of measurement chapters analyzing a num- Nearly two-thirds of ber of conflicts between the Muslim and non- and human rights.” Africans are employed in Muslim world—“Iran 1979: First Major Conflict agriculture, yet on a per- Worst of the Worst defines the actions that consti- with Radical Islam,” “Afghanistan:The Struggle capita basis they produce tute repression and proposes a method of mea- Against the Soviets and the Myth of bin Laden,” roughly 20 percent less than suring human rights violations. It provides an “Iraq 2003:The Unbearable Lightness of Deci- they did in 1970. Although index of nation-state repressiveness, ranking sion,” and “Israel:The New Jamestown?” modern agricultural science nations on a ten-point scale and classifying them was the key to reducing as “gross,” “high,” or “aggressive” repressors. “. . . [C]haracterizes the United States rural poverty in Asia, mod- Aggressive repressors are those nations that may today as a ‘Republic of God’ which has ern farm science—including truly be labeled “rogue states.” This diagnostic found its champion in George W. Bush.” biotechnology—has recently tool—based on arms trafficking, support for ter- been kept out of Africa. rorism,WMD possession, and cross-border “The author presents a series of reflec- In Starved for Science Robert Paarlberg attacks—will guide the international community tions on the relations between religion and explains why poor African farmers are denied in crafting effective policies to deal with injustice the state and characterizes the United access to productive technologies, particularly in the developing world. States today as a ‘Republic of God’ which genetically engineered seeds with improved resis- has ‘found its champion in George W. tance to insects and drought. He traces this “This volume makes an unparalleled con- tribution to the growing and vital field of Bush.’ He then analyzes the conflicts obstacle to the current opposition to farm sci- between revolutionary Islam and the ence in prosperous countries. Having embraced measurement and human rights. Rotberg offers a useful categorization and assess- United States during the second half of agricultural science to become well-fed them- the 20th century including a description of selves, those in wealthy countries are now ment of repressive and ‘rogue’ states, allowing us to measure the extent of the crisis of 1979 in Iran and of the instructing Africans—on the most dubious ‘unprecedented strategic error’ repre- grounds—not to do the same. repressive state behavior more accurately.” —Sarah Sewall, Carr Center for Human Rights sented by the American invasion of Iraq “Except for South Africa, no African state Policy, Harvard University in 2003.” has legalized the planting of GMOs for — L’ Hemicycle production and consumption.While citi- High Performance with High Integrity zens of rich countries have the luxury of Memo to the CEO Series Financing Entrepreneurship Edited by Philip Auerswald and Ant Bozkaya; deciding what kinds of foods—organic, By Ben W. Heineman, Jr.; Harvard Business The International Library of Entrepreneurship nonorganic, GMO, non-GMO—to eat, School Press Series; Edward Elgar (April 2008) droughts and insect infestations continue (Forthcoming June 2008) to wipe out crops, and rural African chil- This important collection comprises 24 previ- Heineman, senior fellow at dren die because they have no choices.” ously published papers.These include founda- the Belfer Center and for- —Joshua Lambert, Library Journal tional papers which offer an understanding of the mer senior vice president- conceptual and historical substructure of entre- Worst of the Worst: Dealing with general counsel of GE, preneurial finance and more recent seminal Repressive and Rogue Nations argues that high perfor- works about entrepreneurs and the obstacles Edited by Robert Rotberg; Brookings Institution mance with high integrity that they systematically seek to overcome. Press and World Peace Foundation (2007) should be the goal of con- Repressive regimes tyran- temporary corporations— “. . . [F]oundational papers which offer nize their own citizens and global capitalism—to an understanding of the conceptual and threaten global sta- avoid catastrophic legal and historical substructure of bility and order. Worst of and ethical lapses but also entrepreneurial finance. . . .” the Worst identifies and to achieve affirmative ben- characterizes the world’s efits inside the company, in the marketplace, and Further articles describe the variety of institu- most odious states, sin- in the broader society. He argues that CEOs tional forms that have evolved to address the gling out those few that must create an affirmative culture by driving challenges inherent in entrepreneurial finance are aggressive beyond eight core integrity principles and associated and the role of government in the process of their own borders and practices deep into business operations—and innovation, entrepreneurship, and the financing of can hence be character- addresses some of the toughest issues for inter- new ventures.These papers, complemented by ized as rogue states. national companies, including emerging markets, the editors’ comprehensive introduction, are Robert Rotberg and his colleagues present acquisitions, crisis management, public policy, and essential for scholars, researchers, policymakers, an innovative, transparent approach to determin- reputation. Based on his experience in senior and entrepreneurs wishing to advance their ing which of these nations are most problematic management, he also seeks to refocus current understanding of this important and expanding field of study. and thus demand immediate policy attention. debates on corporate governance, corporate citi- Previous determinations have been based on zenship, global ethics, CEO succession, and pay inexact, impressionistic criteria.Tyranny was like for performance. obscenity—hard to define but recognizable when —Compiled by Susan Lynch, International it occurred.This volume establishes a framework Security Program and Science,Technology, and Public Policy Program 14 Post-Bush Defense BELFER IN BRIEF n February, Preventive Defense Project Co- IDirectors Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry hosted one in a series of workshops enti- Let’s Go to New York India’s Gain tled “Defense Management Challenges in the Evelyn Hsieh, communications student intern Ambuj Sagar, senior research associate with Post-Bush Era.” The off-the-record workshop, and recent graduate of Harvard Divinity the Center’s Energy Technology Innovation held in Washington, D.C., focused on what School, has accepted a summer job as editor Policy (ETIP) research group, has accepted a management challenges the next administra- for Harvard’s Let’s Go travel guides. She will position as professor with the prestigious tion will face in the next two to five years. The head to New York City in the fall, where she Indian Institute of Technology in New Delhi. management issues include balancing strategy has been accepted to the Columbia University He will continue association with ETIP on and resources in a tightening budget climate, Graduate School of Journalism. energy issues. leveraging America’s technology and industrial Electricity Heats Up bases to sustain a competitive edge, resetting In April, the Energy Technology Innovation civil-military relations, and extending the con- Oil ShockWave Box Policy group convened a diverse group of aca- cept of national security management to demics, business leaders from the auto and include non-military capabilities. Sets Available for electricity sectors, energy modelers, and regula- tors to study the possibilities for and ramifica- Educational Use R E T tions of a greater reliance on electricity in the This year, the Belfer Center and Securing N E

C transportation and heat production sectors. America’s Future Energy (SAFE) have col- R E

F laborated to create Oil ShockWave: College L

E Kingdom and Power

B Edition, a box set that includes all of the Joseph S. Nye, who serves on the Center’s multimedia components, background mate- Board, will teach leadership and international rials, and instructions needed for professors affairs at Oxford’s All Soul’s College in May. to conduct Oil ShockWave simulations in Nye previously was on tour to discuss his new their own classrooms. The package is avail- book The Powers to Lead. able to instructors free of charge. Interested parties may obtain copies by completing Clarifying Climate: Cristine Russell, journalist and Environment and Natural Resources the order form on the Belfer Center web- Program senior fellow, discusses media coverage of climate change with faculty, fellows, and site: www.belfercenter.org/oil. students in April.

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. SPRING 2008 The journal is edited at the Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may Vol. 32, No. 4 be directed to: [email protected]

“The Rise of Afghanistan’s Insurgency: radicalization in this area, the United States three flawed assumptions: that Western state State Failure and Jihad” should strengthen and rebuild the tribal struc- institutions can be transferred to Africa; that donors and African leaders share the same Seth G. Jones tures while reducing the external pressures on them, rather than maintaining its current policy understanding of failure and reconstruction; In 2001 U.S. and Afghan forces overthrew the of extending central government, which only and that donors are capable of rebuilding Taliban regime in Afghanistan, but they failed foments insurgency among a proto-insurgent African states. Uganda and Somaliland, how- to prevent insurgent groups from rising up people. ever, show that African societies can rebuild against the new government. Existing theories, successfully—and without external assistance. which focus on grievance or greed as primary “What Terrorists Really Want:Terrorist Donors should, then, encourage both indige- motives, do not sufficiently explain why this Motives and Counterterrorism Strategy” nous state formation and constructive bargain- insurgency flourished. In fact, the collapse of Max Abrahms ing between social forces and governments. the Afghan government allowed the Taliban to step in and fill the void. Second, insurgent The widely accepted strategic model claims that “Partitioning to Peace: Sovereignty, leaders sought to replace the government terrorists are rational actors who attack civilians to achieve political goals. Policymakers accordingly Demography, and Ethnic Civil Wars” with one grounded in an extremist interpreta- Carter Johnson tion of Sunni Islam.The Afghan government, seek to defeat terrorism by decreasing its politi- then, must provide basic services to rural cal utility in three ways: through a no concessions Partitioning states along ethnic lines is a areas, increase its monopoly of the legitimate policy, political accommodation, or democracy debatable solution to solving ethnic civil wars. use of force, and better counter insurgent promotion.This model, however, has not been Advocates argue that this offers the best ideology in Afghanistan and Pakistan to tested, and evidence demonstrates that terrorists chance for lasting peace, while opponents undermine the Taliban’s support base. are not politically motivated, but are rational peo- claim that it takes a huge toll on the popula- ple who use terrorism to develop affective ties tions involved and that its effectiveness has “No Sign until the Burst of Fire: with fellow terrorists. Existing counterterrorism yet to be proven. In fact, only partitions that Understanding the Pakistan-Afghanistan strategies should shift their focus and attempt to completely separate the warring groups suc- diminish the social benefits of terrorism. ceed in creating peaceful states. Policymakers Frontier” should, then, consider partition as an option Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason “Postconflict Reconstruction in Africa: only where populations are already separated The Pakistan-Afghanistan border area has Flawed Ideas about Failed States” or where population transfers can be accom- become a safe haven for terrorists and is the Pierre Englebert and Denis Tull plished safely. Partitioning Kosovo into ethnic biggest threat to U.S. national security inter- Africa boasts the highest percentage of failed districts could lead to lasting peace, whereas ests.Yet religious and political extremism in states in the world, so it is not surprising that partitioning Iraq would most likely increase the region ends neatly at the borders of donors have made statebuilding their top priority. human suffering and violence. the Pashtun lands, which creates a unique Yet externally sponsored reconstruction efforts cultural challenge.To reverse the trend of have not succeeded, which is partly due to —Compiled by International Security Staff

15 Nonprofit Org. U. S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH Permit No. 375 The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Graham Allison, Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-1400 • Fax: 617-495-8963 www.belfercenter.org Belfer Center Newsletter Editor: Sharon Wilke, Associate Director of Communications E-Mail: [email protected] Sasha Talcott, Director of Communications and Outreach E-Mail: [email protected] The Communications Office was assisted in production of this newsletter by: Courtney Anderson, Katie Bartel, Traci Farrell, Evelyn Hsieh, Angharad Laing, Susan Lynch, Sam Belfer Center Mission:To provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge Milton, Amanda Swanson, Carolyn Woods about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect.

Visit our new website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center. New Orleans’ Broadmoor is Model for Disaster Recovery by Traci Farrell, Communications Office

he intense storm that hit the northwest- strategy for recovery after Hurricane Katrina. System, a database that monitors residents’ Tern United States in December of 2007 The project was launched by Doug Ahlers, a needs and pairs volunteers with the skills to devastated the mountain timber town of Ver- senior fellow with the Belfer Center and a New meet those needs. Developed by project intern nonia, Oregon, with landslides and floods that Orleans resident. The Belfer Center’s Henry Suzanne Hague, it enables the BDC to quickly forced the evacuation of most of the town of Lee is faculty chair for the Broadmoor Project. send needed items like furniture to one family 2500. Luckily, Ariana Tipper, a graduate stu- The Broadmoor Project recently hosted a and plumbers to another. dent at Portland State University (PSU), had Neighborhood Leadership Forum series to With the continued revitalization of the spent the previous summer in New Orleans as share Broadmoor’s work with neighboring Broadmoor neighborhood, and the implemen- an intern for the Belfer Center’s Broadmoor communities in New Orleans. The three tation of the model elsewhere, the Broadmoor Project. Using the recently published Broad- forums focused on data collection and recovery model is proving to be an effective recovery moor community recovery guide as a model, management information systems, best prac- strategy. Tipper organized a team of PSU students to tices in neighborhood revitalization, and estab- “Broadmoor is proud to be serving as a help Vernonia residents in their recovery effort. lishing private-public partnerships. model for other communities recovering Vernonia was the first community outside The forums were not meant to be dia- from disaster,” said Ahlers. “It is the proverbial of New Orleans to take advantage of the logues or discussion, said Ahlers. They were silver lining.” Y

“Broadmoor Guide for Recovery Planning and hands-on sessions, he said, “where community K S N

Implementation,” the practical handbook leaders and residents could leave with skills, A M E designed by the Broadmoor Project for just ideas, and resources and then implement real S T that purpose. The guide—a collaboration of A

initiatives in their neighborhoods.” P the Belfer Center and Kennedy School and Broadmoor today is a success story that has the New Orleans’ community of Broad- gained national attention. In addition to bring- moor—was developed to provide “a nationally ing back many of its pre-Katrina residents, recognized model for how to implement an Broadmoor has developed the plans and funds effective and efficient recovery management to build a community center, library and strategy.” San Francisco officials have also met school, according to Sarah Bieging of the with Broadmoor leaders for ideas on respond- Belfer Center’s Broadmoor Project. Recently, ing to a disaster. the community launched the Broadmoor Com- Road to Recovery:The Wilson School is slated The Broadmoor Project began when stu- munity Development Corporation (BDC) for rebuilding in Broadmoor, where the residents dents from the Kennedy School traveled to which has been working with volunteers to decided education should be the central and New Orleans in 2006 to help residents of the distinguishing concept around which they rebuild build new homes. The BDC also has imple- their neighborhood. hard-hit Broadmoor neighborhood with a mented the Broadmoor Case Management

P Printed on recycled paper. 16