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Scanned by Scan2net EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE Department of Political and Social Sciences Lr, nvr.v; : - 1 I I i li'iï 1 1 ■ ' ■ I V I I ) L 1 K R a R y Global Norms and Regime Change, Kenya and Uganda in Comparative Perspective Hans Peter Schmitz '■M»; Florence, June 1999 I I C-P i juiukHH h » h * ! * *"* »* * «r European University Institute ||M I'M I'll I t im l'l I I 'HI III !|| I I f It! fl|" t~ f I Iti ILI li 111. il. I IM 11 3 0001 0032 9696 1 EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE Department of Politica! and Social Sciences Global Norms and Regime Change. Kenya and Uganda in Comparative Perspective Hans Peter Schmitz Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the Degree of Doctor of the European University Institute LIB 321.8096 76 SCH Examining Jury: Prof. Thomas Risse (European University Institute - supervisor) Prof. Philippe C. Schmitter (European University Institute) Prof. Volker Rittberger (Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen) Dr. Stefan Mair (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Ebenhausen) Florence, June 1999 Contents Tables and Figures...............................................................................................................iii Abbreviations........................................................................................................................iv Introduction...........................................................................................................................1 Regime Change and Democratization..........................................................................................3 Case Selection..................................................................................................................................6 The Argument..................................................................................................................................9 Contribution to Current Research................................................................................................16 Roadmap of the Thesis...................................................................... 19 1 Structure and Agency in the Study of Regime Change............... ......................26 1.1 The Traditional View: Economic Development leads to Democratic Change.............27 1.2 Reversed Causality: Can Democracy Cause Economic Prosperity?............................. 29 1.3 Critique of the Modernization Paradigm........................................................................... 30 1.4 Changing Perspectives: The Role of Contingency and Human Agency.......................33 1.5 Critique of the Agency-centered School............................................................................ 37 1.6 Domestic Institutions and International Opportunities.................................................... 40 1.7 Models of Regime Change..................................................................................................53 2 Neopatrimonial Rule in Kenya and Uganda...................... 56 2.1 Constitutionalism: Establishing Limits to Negative Integration.....................................57 2.1.1 Human Rights Conditions in Kenya and Uganda.....................................................58 2.1.2 Constitutional Safeguards of Human Rights............................................................ 65 2.1.3 Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 72 2.2 Electoral Democracy: The Neopatrimonial Logic o f Positive Integration....................73 2.2.1 Elections........................................................................................................................74 2.2.2 Freedom of the Press....................................................................................................78 2.3 Conclusions........................................................................................................................... 83 11 3 The Establishment of Authoritarian Rule.............................................................. 86 3.1 At Independence.............................................. 86 A 3.2 After Independence................................................................................................................ 91 3.3 Comparison............................................................................................................................100 4 Mobilization.................................................................................................................102 4.1 Uganda 1974-1985: The Killing Fields............................................................................103 4.2 Kenya 1983-1989: Executive Outcomes...........................................................................126 4.3 Comparison............................................................................................................................138 5 Regime Change.............. 143 t 5.1 Uganda 1986-1992: Revolution from below...................................................................143 ¡5. 5.2 Kenya 1989-1991: Reforms from above......................................................................... 156 P 5.3 Comparison........................................................................................................................ 167 6 Transition P ath .......................................................................................................... 170 6.1 Uganda 1993-1998: The End of Broad-Based Government..........................................171 6.2 Kenya 1992-1998: Crafting Electoral Democracy....................................... 191 6.3 Comparison........................................................................................................................... 233 Conclusions......................................................................................................................... 235 The Contribution to the Analysis of Regime Transitions in Africa..................................... 235 The Contribution to the General Literature on Regime Transitions ......................................247 References........................................................................................................................... 255 Abstract 272 Ill Tables and Figures Tables Table 1. Authoritarian Styles in Kenya and Uganda 7 Table 2. International Human Rights Mobilization 9 Table 3. Positive and Negative Integration under Authoritarian Rule 10 Table 4. The Main Foci of Major Approaches to the Study of Democratization 43 Table 5. Modes of Transition 44 Table 6. Human Rights Situation in Kenya and Uganda, 1986-1998 65 Table 7. Constitutional Safeguards in Kenya and Uganda, 1986-1998 72 Table 8. Electoral Democracy in Kenya and Uganda, 1986-1998 82 Figures Figure 1. The Challenge to Authoritarian Rule 11 Figure la. The Case of Kenya 12 Figure lb. The Case of Uganda 12 Figure 2. Transition Paths 13 Figure 2a. The Case of Kenya 14 Figure 2b. The Case of Uganda 15 Figure 3. Different Approaches to Regime Change 54 Figure 4. Modal Regimes in Kenya and Uganda, 1980s and 1990s 84 IV Abbreviations ADF Allied Democratic Forces ACR Africa Contemporary Record AI Amnesty International CA Constituent Assembly CP Conservative Party DCF District Consultative Forum DP Democratic Party FBIS Foreign Broadcast Information Service FORD Forum for the Restoration of Democracy HRW Human Rights Watch HSM Holy Spirit Movement ICJ International Commission of Jurists ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IGG Inspector General of Government IMF International Monetary Fund IPPG Inter-Party Parliamentary Group KADU Kenya African Democratic Union KANU Kenya African National Union KBC Kenya Broadcasting Corporation KHRC Kenya Human Rights Commission KY Kabaka Yekka LRA Lord's Resistance Army LSK Law Society of Kenya MP Member of Parliament NCCF National Constitutional Consultative Forum NCA National Convention Assembly NCC National Consultative Council NCCK National Council of Churches in Kenya NCEC National Convention Executive Council NDP National Development Party NEC National Executive Committee V NPC National Political Commissar NRC National Resistance Council NRM/A National Resistance Movement/Army OAU Organization of African Unity PLO Palestine Liberation Organization RC Resistance Council(s) RPF Rwandan Patriotic Front RPP Release Political Prisoners SDP Social Democratic Party SPLA Sudanese People's Liberation Army UHRC Uganda Human Rights Commission UN United Nations UNICEF United Nations Children Fund UNLA Uganda National Liberation Army UNLF Uganda National Liberation Front UPDF Uganda People's Defense Forces UPM Uganda Patriotic Movement UPC Uganda People’s Congress iàiàtiùtlüà UEUUIflAniULULPiVULIlRiai 1 Introduction ~^The subject of the study is regime change understood as the modification of broadly defined «« political institutions and practices governing domestic politics. Democratization is a possible outcome of such a process if the modification of political institutions and practices reflects convergence with a particular set of liberal ideas and norms. During the last 25 years the interest of political scientists in such processes has steadily grown. Democratization spread from Southern Europe in the 1970s to Latin America in the 1980s and finally reached Eastern Europe and the other continents in the late 1980s and early 1990s. More recently, some have diagnosed an 'ebbing' of .the wave. While the empirical record of the 'third wave* is mixed, its profound effects
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