LONDON BOROUGH OF HAVERING

SCHOOL PLANNING DATA PACK

Summer 2018

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CONTENTS PAGE

Section Pages

Primary and Secondary Schools in Havering A 4-9 Births in Havering B 10-19 School roll projections and numbers on roll C 20-34 Imports and Exports D 35-37 School roll projection methodology E 38-43

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Section A- Primary and Secondary schools in Havering

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Havering primary schools by planning area and ward

Estab Governance Planning Area Ward No. School Name Havering Park 3112038 Clockhouse Primary School CO Mawneys 3112042 Crownfield Infant School CO Mawneys 3112041 Crownfield Junior School CO Havering Park 3113000 Dame Tipping CE School CO Havering Park 3112004 Oasis Pinewood Academy Pettits 3112056 Parklands Infants' School CO Pettits 3112055 Parklands Juniors CO Pettits 3112060 Infants' School Academy Pettits 3112016 Rise Park Junior School Academy Mawneys 3113503 St Patrick's Catholic Primary. CO 3112008 Primary School CO Hacton 3112015 Hacton Primary School CO Elm Park 3112023 Scargill Infants Academy Elm Park 3112022 Scargill Junior School Academy Elm Park Hacton 3112080 Scotts Primary School CO Elm Park 3113508 St Alban's Catholic Primary CO Hacton 3112024 Suttons Primary School CO Elm Park 3112093 The RJ Mitchell Primary School CO 3112081 Broadford Primary School CO Gooshays 3112036 Drapers' Brookside Infant Academy Gooshays 3112012 Drapers' Brookside Junior Academy Gooshays 3112020 Drapers Maylands Primary Academy Gooshays 3112085 Drapers' Pyrgo Priory School Academy Harold Wood 3112017 Harold Court Primary School CO Heaton 3112090 Hilldene Primary School CO Harold Wood 3112087 Mead Primary School CO Heaton 3113505 St. Ursula's Catholic Infant CO Heaton 3113504 St.Ursulas Junior CO Squirrel's Heath 3112007 Infants CO Squirrel's Heath 3112006 Ardleigh Green Juniors CO St Andrew's 3112009 Benhurst Primary Academy 3112005 Harold Wood Primary School CO St Andrew's 3112019 Infant School CO St Andrew's 3112000 Langtons Junior Academy Academy Emerson Park 3112086 Nelmes Primary School CO Squirrel's Heath 3112062 Squirrels Heath Infant CO Squirrel's Heath 3112061 Squirrels Heath Junior CO Hylands 3113501 St. Mary's Catholic Primary CO Hylands 3112070 Towers Infant School CO Hylands 3112076 Towers Junior School CO Hylands 3112096 Harrow Lodge Primary Academy

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Estab Governance Planning Area Ward No. School Name Rainham and Wennington 3112078 Brady Primary School CO South 3113502 La Salette Primary School CO Hornchurch South 3112084 Newtons Primary School CO Rainham & Hornchurch South 3112073 Parsonage Farm Primary School CO Hornchurch Rainham and Wennington 3112089 Rainham Village Primary School CO South 3112026 Whybridge Infant School CO Hornchurch South 3112025 Whybridge Junior School Academy Hornchurch Brooklands 3112031 Concordia Academy Academy Brooklands 3112097 Crowlands Primary School CO Town 3112069 Primary School CO Romford Romford Town 3112014 Hylands Primary School CO Pettits 3113507 St Peter's Catholic Primary CO Pettits 3113301 St. Edward's C. of E. Primary CO Brooklands 3112092 The Mawney School Foundation 3113509 Branfil Primary School CO 3112094 Engayne Primary School CO Upminster 3113506 St. Joseph's Catholic Primary CO Upminster Upminster 3112003 The James Oglethorpe Primary CO Upminster 3112067 Upminster Infant School Academy Upminster 3112066 Upminster Junior School Academy

Havering secondary schools by planning area and ward

Planning Estab Governance Area No. School Name St Andrew's 3115401 Abbs Cross Academy and Arts Academy Emerson Park 3114006 Academy Pettits 3114037 Marshalls Park School Academy Emerson Park 3114001 Academy Central Brooklands 3114600 St. Edwards's School Academy Hylands 3114013 The Albany School Academy Emerson Park 3114700 The Campion School Academy Romford Town 3115400 The Frances Bardsley Academy Academy Squirrel's Heath 3114025 The Academy North East Gooshays 3116905 Drapers Academy Academy North Havering Park 3114042 Academy West Rainham and Wennington 3114007 Academy South Hacton 3114009 Foundation South 3114003 Academy Hornchurch

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Primary Planning Areas Map

Key Primary Planning Area

COLLIER ROW ELM PARK HAROLD HILL HORNCHURCH RAINHAM & SOUTH HORNCHURCH ROMFORD UPMINSTER & CRANHAM 7

Secondary Planning Areas Map

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Section B- Births in Havering

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Births In Havering we have seen an increase of 52% in the number of births between calendar years 2002 to 2016. This includes a 19% increase in the birth rate from 2012 to 2016. Havering saw the highest birth rate increase over this period for a Local Authority:

Havering was the only London borough to have a year on year increase in the birth rate since 2013. This shows that although the majority of London boroughs have experienced a reduction in the birth rate, Havering is still experiencing an increasing birth rate that will lead to larger reception cohorts each year. .

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Actual births by ward

Brooklands Ward Births Cranham Ward Births 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

Brooklands Ward Births Cranham Ward Births

Elm Park Ward Births Emerson Park Ward Births 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

Elm Park Ward Births Emerson Park Ward Births

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Gooshays Ward Births Hacton Ward Births 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

Gooshays Ward Births Hacton Ward Births

Harold Wood Ward Births Havering Park Ward Births 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

Harold Wood Ward Births Havering Park Ward Births

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Heaton Ward Births Hylands Ward Births 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

Heaton Ward Births Hylands Ward Births

Mawneys Ward Births Pettits Ward Births 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

Mawneys Ward Births Pettits Ward Births

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Rainham and Wennington Ward Births Romford Town Ward Births 300 350 250 300 200 250 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

Rainham and Wennington Ward Births Romford Town Ward Births

South Hornchurch Ward Births Squirrel's Heath Ward Births 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

South Hornchurch Ward Births Squirrel's Heath Ward Births

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St. Andrew's Ward Births Upminster Ward Births 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0

St. Andrew's Ward Births Upminster Ward Births

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Actual births by primary planning area

Collier Row Elm Park 450 350 400 300 350 250 300 200 250 150 200 100

Collier Row Elm Park

Harold Hill Hornchurch 660 800 640 750 620 600 700 580 650 560 600 540 520 550 500 500 480 460 450 440 400 420

Harold Hill Hornchurch

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Rainham & South Hornchurch Romford 400 700 650 350 600 550 300 500 450 250 400 350 200 300

Rainham & South Hornchurch Romford

Upminster & Cranham 300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Upminster & Cranham

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Section C- School roll projections and numbers on roll

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School Census January 2018 by Planning Area- Primary

Total Planning Estab N R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Area No. School Name Pupil Nos Collier Row 3112038 Clockhouse Primary School 692 67 89 88 89 91 92 87 89 Collier Row 3112042 Crownfield Infant School 358 76 108 91 83 0 0 0 0 Collier Row 3112041 Crownfield Junior School 338 0 0 0 89 78 89 82 Collier Row 3113000 Dame Tipping C.E School 97 14 14 16 13 15 12 13 Collier Row 3112004 Oasis Academy Pinewood 325 32 38 42 40 41 38 45 49 Collier Row 3112056 Parklands Infants' School 439 74 111 117 137 0 0 0 0 Collier Row 3112055 Parklands Junior School 473 0 0 0 118 118 120 117 Collier Row 3112060 Rise Park Infants' School 286 23 83 91 89 0 0 0 0 Collier Row 3112016 Rise Park Junior School 297 0 0 0 86 77 76 58 Collier Row 3113503 St Patrick’s Catholic Primary. 386 48 60 57 59 60 57 45 Total 3691 272 491 503 511 497 478 486 453 Elm Park 3112008 Elm Park Primary School 376 55 48 46 59 56 56 56 Elm Park 3112015 Hacton Primary School 473 48 81 78 54 53 54 53 52 Elm Park 3112023 Scargill Infants 254 83 87 84 0 0 0 0 Elm Park 3112022 Scargill Junior School 325 0 0 0 78 81 80 86 Elm Park 3112080 Scotts Primary School 331 60 60 61 60 30 30 30 Elm Park 3113508 St Alban’s Catholic Primary 207 30 30 29 30 30 29 29 Elm Park 3112024 Suttons Primary School 351 56 60 41 28 29 51 56 30 Elm Park 3112093 The RJ Mitchell Primary School 309 13 55 59 61 32 29 32 28 Total 2626 117 369 355 317 282 275 280 255 Harold Hill 3112081 Broadford Primary School 549 47 88 88 60 58 61 90 57 Harold Hill 3112036 Brookside Infant School 224 46 60 58 60 0 0 0 0 Harold Hill 3112012 Drapers Brookside Junior 240 0 0 0 61 60 59 60 Harold Hill 3112020 Drapers Maylands Primary 145 50 49 46 0 0 0 0 Harold Hill 3112017 Harold Court Primary School 412 59 60 59 56 57 61 60 Harold Hill 3112090 Hilldene Primary School 685 60 89 90 90 89 90 87 90 Harold Hill 3112087 Mead Primary School 675 62 85 86 90 89 88 85 90 Harold Hill 3112085 Pyrgo Priory School 536 36 50 60 60 77 88 78 87 Harold Hill 3113505 St. Ursula’s Catholic Infant 220 42 59 60 59 0 0 0 0 Harold Hill 3113504 St.Ursulas Junior School. 243 0 0 0 60 60 62 61 Total 3929 293 540 551 524 490 504 522 505

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Total Pupil N R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Planning Area Estab No. School Name Nos Hornchurch 3112007 Ardleigh Green Infants School 270 90 90 90 0 0 0 0 Hornchurch 3112006 Ardleigh Green Junior School 361 0 0 0 91 91 90 89 Hornchurch 3112009 Benhurst Primary 415 59 57 60 60 59 60 60 Hornchurch 3112005 Harold Wood Primary School 561 90 88 91 87 86 60 59 Hornchurch 3112019 Langtons Infant School 208 62 62 84 0 0 0 0 Hornchurch 3112000 Langtons Junior Academy 294 0 0 0 65 71 80 78 Hornchurch 3112086 Nelmes Primary School 452 60 60 60 60 90 62 60 Hornchurch 3112062 Squirrels Heath Infant School 263 89 85 89 0 0 0 0 Hornchurch 3112061 Squirrels Heath Junior School 359 0 0 0 86 114 74 85 Hornchurch 3113501 St. Mary’s Catholic Primary 420 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Hornchurch 3112070 Towers Infant School 325 55 90 90 90 0 0 0 0 Hornchurch 3112076 Towers Junior School 345 0 0 0 91 91 89 74 Hornchurch 3112096 Harrow Lodge Primary School 462 57 70 71 66 78 63 57 Total 4735 55 657 662 695 666 740 638 622 Rainham & S.Hornchurch 3112078 Brady Primary School 205 30 30 30 30 29 30 26 Rainham & S.Hornchurch 3113502 La Salette Catholic Primary 204 30 30 28 30 30 27 29 Rainham & S.Hornchurch 3112084 Newtons Primary School 410 46 45 49 57 54 49 52 58 Rainham & S.Hornchurch 3112073 Parsonage Farm Primary School 594 90 89 88 82 77 90 78 Rainham & S.Hornchurch 3112089 Rainham Village Primary School 455 37 58 60 58 50 66 69 57 Rainham & S.Hornchurch 3112026 Whybridge Infant School 215 82 59 74 0 0 0 0 Rainham & S.Hornchurch 3112025 Whybridge Junior School 233 0 0 0 56 59 58 60 Total 83 275 257 277 242 251 269 253 Romford 3112031 Concordia Academy 49 25 24 0 0 0 0 0 Romford 3112097 Crowlands Primary School 671 62 91 87 84 86 89 87 85 Romford 3112069 Gidea Park Primary School 463 58 90 58 80 58 59 60 Romford 3112014 Hylands Primary School 524 52 86 86 58 60 59 65 58 Romford 3113507 St Peter’s Catholic Primary 298 60 60 57 30 30 30 31 Romford 3113301 St. Edward’s C. Of E. Primary 650 49 83 89 88 85 85 87 84 Romford 3112092 The Mawney Foundation School 482 43 88 59 58 58 59 57 60 Total 3137 206 491 495 403 399 380 385 378 Upminster & Cranham 3113509 Branfil Primary School 546 74 78 84 87 87 77 59 Upminster & Cranham 3112094 Engayne Primary School 627 90 89 90 90 90 90 88 Upminster & Cranham 3113506 St. Joseph’s Catholic Primary 423 60 60 60 60 60 63 60 Upminster & Cranham 3112003 The James Oglethorpe Primary 332 47 42 51 39 42 50 61 Upminster & Cranham 3112067 Upminster Infant School 268 89 89 90 0 0 0 0 Upminster & Cranham 3112066 Upminster Junior School 358 0 0 0 89 90 89 90 Total 2554 0 360 358 375 365 369 369 358 Total Primary School 22988 1026 3298 3289 3206 3060 3112 3062 2935

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School Census January 2018 by Planning Area- Secondary

Total Planning Estab Pupil 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Area No. School Name Nos 3115401 Abbs Cross Academy and Arts 814 163 164 161 163 163 3114006 Emerson Park Academy 974 209 193 188 192 192 3114037 Marshalls Park School 844 175 167 170 166 166 3114001 Redden Court School 752 152 156 150 151 143 3114600 St. Edwards's School 1107 153 184 187 199 203 73 108 Central 3114013 The Albany School 806 155 163 183 146 159 3114700 The Campion School 1091 150 152 150 151 136 187 165 3115400 The Frances Bardsley Academy 1272 237 219 217 207 216 100 76 3114025 The Royal Liberty School 550 121 118 108 99 104 8210 1515 1516 1514 1474 1482 360 349 3115402 Coopers Company and Coborn 1384 188 189 189 189 188 209 232 3114026 484 93 109 102 77 103 East 3114000 956 192 189 195 191 189 3115403 Sacred Heart of Mary Girls' 827 124 120 122 123 123 121 94 3651 597 607 608 580 603 330 326 North 3116905 Drapers Academy 200 175 178 170 132 78 48 East 981 200 175 178 170 132 78 48 North 3114042 Bower Park Academy 168 172 166 123 132 West 761 168 172 166 123 132 0 0 3114007 Harris Academy Rainham 936 195 184 188 185 184 3114009 Sanders School 609 143 132 125 105 104 South 3114003 The Brittons Academy 838 154 152 163 186 183 2383 492 468 476 476 471 0 0

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School Roll Projections in Havering

Primary school roll projections

Primary projections with Primary projections housing Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ number Deficit Deficit Rec 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Deficit Total Deficit of places of places of places of places of places available as FE* as FE 2018/19 23690 3300 3312 3314 3219 3051 3109 3061 22366 1324 44 22619 1071 36 2019/20 24099 3400 3314 3338 3329 3209 3048 3108 22747 1352 45 23077 1022 34 2020/21 24463 3764 3415 3339 3353 3319 3207 3047 23444 1019 34 23897 566 19 2021/22 24857 3767 3779 3441 3354 3343 3317 3206 24208 649 22 24668 189 6 2022/23 25146 3800 3783 3809 3457 3345 3340 3316 24851 295 10 25375 -229 -8 2023/24 25317 3788 3816 3812 3828 3448 3342 3340 25374 -57 -2 25806 -489 -16 2024/25 25443 3772 3804 3846 3831 3817 3444 3341 25855 -412 -14 26338 -895 -30 *1FE (one form of entry) =30 places

Secondary school roll projections

Secondary Projections with Secondary Projections Housing Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ number Deficit Deficit 7 8 9 10 11 Total Deficit Total Deficit of places of places of places of places of places available as FE* as FE 2018/19 16384 3036 2825 2905 2873 2840 14479 1905 64 14599 1785 60 2019/20 16636 3172 3012 2805 2877 2818 14683 1953 65 14821 1815 61 2020/21 16918 3274 3147 2990 2778 2821 15009 1909 64 15174 1744 58 2021/22 17134 3208 3248 3124 2960 2723 15264 1870 62 15450 1684 56 2022/23 17320 3355 3183 3225 3093 2902 15757 1563 52 15975 1345 45 2023/24 17410 3446 3328 3159 3193 3032 16158 1252 42 16379 1031 34 2024/25 17410 3465 3418 3304 3128 3130 16446 964 32 16677 733 24 *1FE=30 places 24

Reception projections by primary planning area

Collier Row Projections Projections with housing Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Reception Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Reception Reception Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 555 526 29 1 528 27 1 2019/20 555 506 49 2 509 46 2 2020/21 555 543 12 0 544 11 0 2021/22 555 524 31 1 525 30 1 2022/23 555 524 31 1 524 31 1

Elm Park Projections Projections with housing Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Reception Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Reception Reception Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 444 416 28 1 419 25 1 2019/20 444 437 7 0 444 0 0 2020/21 444 458 -14 0 469 -25 -1 2021/22 444 475 -31 -1 484 -40 -1 2022/23 444 483 -39 -1 488 -44 -1

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Harold Projections Projections with housing* Hill Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Reception Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Reception Reception Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 570 549 21 1 570 0 0 2019/20 600 576 24 1 595 5 0 2020/21 600 708 -108 -4 725 -125 -4 2021/22 600 675 -75 -3 687 -87 -3 2022/23 600 686 -86 -3 694 -94 -3

Hornchurch Projections Projections with housing Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Reception Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Reception Reception Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 690 599 91 3 608 82 3 2019/20 690 626 64 2 633 57 2 2020/21 690 738 -48 -2 745 -55 -2 2021/22 690 702 -12 0 705 -15 -1 2022/23 690 711 -21 -1 714 -24 -1

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Rainham and South Projections Projections with housing Hornchurch Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Reception Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Reception Reception Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 390 344 46 2 352 38 1 2019/20 390 362 28 1 378 12 0 2020/21 390 384 6 0 421 -31 -1 2021/22 390 409 -19 -1 455 -65 -2 2022/23 390 408 -18 -1 466 -76 -3

Romford Projections Projections with housing Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Reception Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Reception Reception Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 570 501 69 2 532 38 1 2019/20 570 519 51 2 563 7 0 2020/21 570 530 40 1 589 -19 -1 2021/22 570 588 -18 -1 652 -82 -3 2022/23 570 591 -21 -1 673 -103 -3

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Upminster and Projections Projections with housing Cranham Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Reception Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Reception Reception Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 390 366 24 1 368 22 1 2019/20 390 373 17 1 377 13 0 2020/21 390 403 -13 0 407 -17 -1 2021/22 390 394 -4 0 397 -7 0 2022/23 390 397 -7 0 399 -9 0

Year 1 to Year 6 Projections by Planning Area

1FE = 1 class = 30 places

Collier Row Projections Projections with housing Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Yr 1 to Projected Projected Deficit Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Yr 6 Yr 1 to Yr Yr 1 to Yr of Year of places as of places 6 intake 6 intake places places FE places available as FE 2018/19 3210 2950 260 9 2956 254 8 2019/20 3240 2983 257 9 2990 250 8 2020/21 3270 3005 265 9 3008 262 9 2021/22 3300 3048 252 8 3051 249 8 2022/23 3300 3062 238 8 3063 237 8

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Elm Park Projections Projections with housing Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Yr 1 to Projected Projected Deficit Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit yr 6 Yr 1 to Yr Yr 1 to Yr of Year of places as of places 6 intake 6 intake places places FE places available as FE 2018/19 2306 2226 80 3 2232 74 2 2019/20 2400 2334 66 2 2350 50 2 2020/21 2494 2469 25 1 2493 1 0 2021/22 2588 2614 -26 -1 2634 -46 -2 2022/23 2652 2746 -94 -3 2757 -105 -3

Harold Hill Projections Projections with housing Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Yr 1 to Projected Projected Deficit Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit yr 6 Yr 1 to Yr Yr 1 to Yr of Year of places as of places 6 intake 6 intake places places FE places available as FE 2018/19 3240 3152 88 3 3201 39 1 2019/20 3270 3201 69 2 3245 25 1 2020/21 3360 3289 71 2 3330 30 1 2021/22 3450 3525 -75 -3 3552 -102 -3 2022/23 3510 3687 -177 -6 3707 -197 -7

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Hornchurch Projections Projections with housing Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Yr 1 to Projected Projected Deficit Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Yr 6 Yr 1 to Yr Yr 1 to Yr of Year of places as of places 6 intake 6 intake places places FE places available as FE 2018/19 4260 4059 201 7 4079 181 6 2019/20 4275 4022 253 8 4039 236 8 2020/21 4200 3910 290 10 3926 274 9 2021/22 4170 3988 182 6 3996 174 6 2022/23 4155 4003 152 5 4008 147 5

Rainham & South Projections Projections with housing Hornchurch Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Yr 1 to Projected Projected Deficit Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Yr 6 Yr 1 to Yr Yr 1 to Yr of Year of places as of places 6 intake 6 intake places places FE places available as FE 2018/19 2070 1922 148 5 1941 129 4 2019/20 2115 1936 179 6 1974 141 5 2020/21 2160 1989 171 6 2075 85 3 2021/22 2220 2075 145 5 2181 39 1 2022/23 2250 2158 92 3 2293 -43 -1

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Romford Projections Projections with housing Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Yr 1 to Projected Projected Deficit Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Yr 6 Yr 1 to Yr Yr 1 to Yr of Year of places as of places 6 intake 6 intake places places FE places available as FE 2018/19 2655 2549 106 4 2621 34 1 2019/20 2820 2660 160 5 2761 59 2 2020/21 3000 2797 203 7 2935 65 2 2021/22 3150 2925 225 7 3076 74 2 2022/23 3300 3109 191 6 3299 1 0

Upminster & Projections Projections with housing Cranham Total Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Yr 1 to Projected Projected Deficit Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Yr 6 Yr 1 to Yr Yr 1 to Yr of Year of places as of places 6 intake 6 intake places places FE places available as FE 2018/19 2340 2208 132 4 2213 127 4 2019/20 2340 2211 129 4 2219 121 4 2020/21 2340 2221 119 4 2231 109 4 2021/22 2340 2264 76 3 2272 68 2 2022/23 2340 2287 53 2 2292 48 2

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Year 7 Projections by secondary planning area

North East Projections Projections with housing

Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Year 7 Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Year 7 Year 7 Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 210 210 0 0 219 -9 0 2019/20 210 218 -8 0 227 -17 -1 2020/21 210 212 -2 0 218 -8 0 2021/22 210 205 5 0 210 0 0 2022/23 210 226 -16 -1 231 -21 -1 2023/24 210 243 -33 -1 247 -37 -1 2024/25 210 238 -28 -1 240 -30 -1

North West Projections Projections with housing Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Year 7 Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Year 7 Year 7 Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 180 180 0 0 180 0 0 2019/20 180 183 -3 0 183 -3 0 2020/21 180 182 -2 0 183 -3 0 2021/22 180 184 -4 0 184 -4 0 2022/23 180 186 -6 0 186 -6 0 2023/24 180 185 -5 0 185 -5 0 2024/25 180 184 -4 0 184 -4 0 32

Central Projections Projections with housing Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Year 7 Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Year 7 Year 7 Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 1744 1592 152 5 1603 141 5 2019/20 1786 1656 130 4 1669 117 4 2020/21 1786 1731 55 2 1747 39 1 2021/22 1786 1676 110 4 1695 91 3 2022/23 1786 1730 56 2 1753 33 1 2023/24 1786 1797 -11 0 1819 -33 -1 2024/25 1786 1778 8 0 1803 -17 -1

East Projections Projections with housing Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Year 7 Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Year 7 Year 7 Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 662 566 96 3 566 96 3 2019/20 680 591 89 3 592 88 3 2020/21 680 620 60 2 621 59 2 2021/22 680 614 66 2 615 65 2 2022/23 680 634 46 2 635 45 2 2023/24 680 610 70 2 611 69 2 2024/25 680 614 66 2 615 65 2

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South Projections Projections with housing Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Surplus/ Year 7 Projected Projected Academic Deficit Deficit of Deficit Deficit of places Year 7 Year 7 Year of places as of places as available intake intake places FE places FE 2018/19 602 488 114 4 491 111 4 2019/20 602 524 78 3 528 74 2 2020/21 632 529 103 3 538 94 3 2021/22 632 529 103 3 541 91 3 2022/23 632 579 53 2 595 37 1 2023/24 632 610 22 1 628 4 0 2024/25 632 651 -19 -1 668 -36 -1

Schools sixth form roll projections

Academic Sixth form places Projected Sixth form Surplus/ Deficit Year available intake 2018/19 1840 1536 304 2019/20 1840 1508 332 2020/21 1840 1524 316 2021/22 1840 1530 310 2022/23 1840 1515 325

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Section D- Imports and Exports

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Havering as an importer and exporter of pupils

Primary: No. of No. of No. of Pupils Pupils No. of % of pupils No. of % of pupils Net Net pupils pupils pupils in residing residing pupils residing in pupils residing in difference difference residing attending residence and and residing in other LAs residing in LA between between in LA schools and attending attending other LAs attending LA attending imports imports maintained attending schools in schools in attending schools attending schools and and by the LA schools LA as a % LA as a % schools maintained schools maintained exports exports as maintained of resident of school maintained by the LA maintained by other a % of by the LA population population by the LA by other LAs school LAs population

2017 21,489 21,531 20,355 94.7 94.5 1,176 5.5 1,134 5.3 42 0.2 2016 20,718 20,785 19,682 95 95 1,103 5.3 1,036 5.0 67 0.3 2015 20,117 20,227 19,138 95.1 94.6 1,089 5.4 979 4.9 110 0.5

Secondary: No. of No. of No. of Pupils % point Pupils No. of % of pupils No. of pupils % of pupils Net Net pupils pupils pupils in residing change residing and pupils residing in residing in residing in difference difference residing attending residence and since attending residing in other LAs LA attending LA between between in LA schools and attending 2002 schools in other LAs attending schools attending imports imports maintained attending schools in LA as a % of attending schools maintained schools and and by the LA schools LA as a % school schools maintained by other LAs maintained exports exports as maintained of resident population maintained by the LA by other a % of by the LA population by the LA LAs school population 2017 13,748 14,480 12,222 88.9 84.4 2,258 15.6 1,528 11.1 732 5.1 2016 13,545 14,461 12,125 90 3.2 84 2,336 16.2 1,420 10.5 916 6.3 2015 13,575 14,774 12,251 90.2 4.0 82.9 2,523 17.1 1,324 9.8 1,199 8.1

* Positive figures indicate LA is a net importer. Negative figure indicates LA is a net exporter of pupils.

Source: DfE Schools Pupils and their Characteristics: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-school-and-pupil-numbers

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The Local Authorities Havering imports/exports the most pupils from/to:

Primary Imports Export Net Import/Export Authority 2015 2016 2017 Authority 2015 2016 2017 Authority 2015 2016 2017 Barking and Dagenham 462 442 471 Barking and Dagenham 481 485 546 Barking and Dagenham -19 -43 -75 91 123 146 Essex 181 203 212 Essex -90 -80 -66 Newham 14 13 21 Newham 46 67 66 Newham -32 -54 -45 Redbridge 78 72 59 Redbridge 189 208 234 Redbridge -111 -136 -175

Thurrock 427 440 457 Thurrock 21 12 19 Thurrock 406 428 438

Secondary Imports Export Net Import/Export Authority 2015 2016 2017 Authority 2015 2016 2017 Authority 2015 2016 2017

Barking and Dagenham 1245 1170 1153 Barking and Dagenham 276 323 333 Barking and Dagenham 969 847 820 Essex 264 240 227 Essex 618 579 620 Essex -354 -339 -393

Newham 142 125 107 Newham 37 49 59 Newham 105 76 48 Redbridge 148 141 132 Redbridge 159 198 215 Redbridge -11 -57 -83 Southend-on-Sea 8 5 7 Southend-on-Sea 115 160 199 Southend-on-Sea -107 -155 -192

Thurrock 635 584 571 Thurrock 14 15 13 Thurrock 621 569 558

Tower Hamlets 40 37 33 Tower Hamlets 7 13 16 Tower Hamlets 33 24 17 Waltham Forest 29 23 16 Waltham Forest 18 28 30 Waltham Forest 11 -5 -14

Net import/Export: a positive figure indicates Havering is a net importer. A negative figure indicates Havering is a net exporter. All data is taken from DfE cross border mobility matrices for January 2015, January 2016 and January 2017. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-school-and-pupil-numbers

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Section E- School roll projection methodology

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School place planning methodology:

The following information is used to calculate school roll projections in Havering:  Birth data received from the ONS.  Population projections produced by the GLA  Historic pupil data obtained from the school census  Housing development data obtained from our planning department.

Year Reception and primary There are seven primary planning areas (see map at the end of this section), which were revised in 2014. The primary planning areas previously used were not made up of existing ward boundaries and many of the old planning areas only partially cover some wards. As birth and population data is often received at ward level, this then involves an assumption being made as to what proportion of the ward level birth/population data sits under which planning area.

The authority calculates independently a projection of pupil numbers for each of the seven primary planning areas. Once projections have been made at planning area level, individual school projections are made for all schools in that planning area. Data on parental preferences for schools is used when projecting numbers at school level. The accuracy of the individual planning area projections is the starting point when updating the projections.

The main method used to project school rolls in Havering is the cohort survival method. The base information used for forecasting the number of children entering Reception in each primary planning area in Havering is the number of births within each planning area and the number of children in Reception classes in each planning area (obtained from the school census and summer count for previous years).

The birth data is provided by the ONS at ward level. This birth data allows the historical uptake factor to be calculated between the number of births in a planning area and the number of children entering a reception class in the same planning area five years later. This represents the number of children born in the planning area that will go on to attend a primary school in the planning area five years later. The past trend of reception intake to total birth rate for the corresponding year is calculated, an average established and then applied to the birth rate for future years to calculate the projected reception intake for each of the seven planning areas.

When actual live birth data is not available from the ONS, projected birth data from the GLA is used. Havering is a net importer of pupils, that is more pupils are expected to attend primary school here than were actually born in Havering five years previously. This has been the trend for a number of years and is not expected to change.

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Once the number for Reception has been projected for each planning area, the past trend of cohort movement through the primary phase year on year from reception to year 6 is calculated, an average established and applied to each age cohort as they move through the system.

The projections for each planning area are added together to produce a primary projection for the whole of Havering. The method of projecting each primary planning area individually is to make sure that the primary projections produced for Havering are more sensitive to localised changes in the population at planning area level, such as one-off dips in the birth rate within a particular planning area.

Under the new planning area projection method, any changes in the birth rate for that area would be picked up and incorporated into the projections; a sudden dip in the birth rate would result in a lower expected reception intake in the area five years later, the impact of which may well have been hidden under the previous method of projecting a reception intake for the whole borough which is then split across the planning areas.

Another change to the projection methodology is that we no longer incorporate an additional 5% factor on top of the projected rolls. Previously an additional 5% was added to the projected reception intake for the Harold Hill, Romford and Rainham and South Hornchurch primary planning areas.

The 5% element was initially introduced as these primary planning areas experienced high levels of new housing as well as high mobility, leading to school place applications being received from these areas throughout the year. The additional 5% was implemented in order to ensure that we have sufficient primary school places available to accommodate school place demand from families living in these areas throughout the year.

A comprehensive strategy of primary school expansion to meet school place demand and a reduction in the number of in-year primary applications has meant that we no longer need to factor in an additional 5% to the projections in these areas in order to ensure enough places are available.

Year 7 and Secondary Projections

Havering introduced secondary planning areas in 2014 in order to produce projections (see map at the end of this section). Projecting secondary demand through secondary planning areas allows localised trends and patterns of movement around secondary school attendance to be captured and reflected accurately in the projections. The introduction of secondary planning areas helps identify areas of need earlier, as a shortage of places in a particular area will be highlighted at planning area level that may well be hidden at borough level. There are five

40 secondary planning areas that are made up by aggregating existing ward boundaries.

The authority calculates independently a projection of pupil numbers for each of the five secondary planning areas. Once projections have been made at planning area level, individual school projections are made for all schools in that planning area. Data on parental preferences for schools is used when projecting numbers at school level. The accuracy of the individual planning area projections is the starting point when updating the projections.

To generate the secondary projections, historical data is used to calculate the transfer rate from year 6 to year 7 for each secondary planning area. The year 6 roll data allows the historical uptake factor to be calculated between the year 6 roll in a primary planning area and the number of children entering a year 7 class in the corresponding secondary planning area the following year. This represents the number of children attending year 6 in the primary planning area that will go on to attend a secondary school in the corresponding secondary planning area the following year.

For those primary schools where the year 6 roll feeds into secondary schools in different planning areas, the year 6 roll is proportioned accordingly so that the year 6 roll feeds into the separate secondary planning areas.

Once the number for year 7 has been projected for each planning area, the past trend of cohort movement through the secondary phase year on year from year 7 to year 11 is calculated, an average established and applied to each age cohort as they move through the system.

The projections for each planning area are added together to produce a secondary projection for the whole of Havering. The method of projecting each secondary planning area individually is to make sure that the secondary projections produced for Havering are more sensitive to localised changes in the population at planning area level, such as one-off dips in the year 6 roll within a particular planning area

Housing

We receive data from the planning team detailing housing completions in Havering. This allows us to calculate the child yield expected as a result of these housing completions.

In addition we also factor into the projections the child yield from future major housing developments as detailed in the housing trajectory that forms part of the Local Plan evidence base and as set out by regeneration colleagues.

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The child yield from each housing scheme is staggered over a five or three-year period to reflect the fact that housing developments are not all occupied immediately, nor generate child yield immediately. All the planning areas have the child yield weighted. For the primary phase an assumption is made that the child yield is highest in the first year of occupancy. A 40% weighting has been used to calculate child yield for the first year, followed by 30% each in the second and third year. For the secondary phase the child yield is phased evenly over a five-year period, with 20% added each year.

The child yield is aggregated from ward level to planning area level and then split out by year group. In primary the child yield is split out by weighting the yield at 30% in reception, 15% each in years 1 and 2 and then 10% each across years 3-6. The effect of splitting out the child yield this way instead of evenly splitting across all year groups (as with secondary) is subtle, but weights the child yield slightly in the earlier year groups, thus ensuring that additional capacity required to meet the demand arising from new housing is implemented in time.

Currently an average of 0.2 is used as the child yield multiplier for secondary (including post 16) and an average of 0.3 used as the child yield multiplier for primary. These have been calculated by assessing the average child yield produced by 1/2/3/4 bed units.

Child yield from housing developments is factored into the primary, secondary and Havering school sixth form projections.

Post 16 Projections- Havering School Sixth Forms Projections for Havering school sixth form are made by using staying on rates calculated by comparing historic year 12 numbers with the year 11 numbers the previous year. Similarly, the historic trend of year 13 numbers compared to year 12 pupil numbers the previous year is calculated. Once the past trend of cohort movement year on year from year 11 to year 12 and year 12 to year 13 has been calculated, an average is established and applied to the year 11 projection to provide Havering school sixth form projections for future years.

Additional factors The accuracy of previous projections is reviewed as a starting point for the production of a new series of projections. In this way inconsistencies or problems with the previous projections can be identified and corrected before the new set of projections is produced. Significant school organisation changes planned have been taken into consideration in working out projections.

Cohort survival rates are reviewed each year. They are used to determine whether changes are occurring in pupil flows and methodology for borough and planning area level and school -level projections, with the projections adapted accordingly. Parental preferences for schools are used when projecting numbers at school level.

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We consult schools regarding the individual school roll projections for their school and a projection for the planning area they are in. All the adjustments raised by schools on their individual projections will be considered and revised in the projections where appropriate.

Accuracy of Forecasts Havering like every Local Authority, submits updated projections to the ESFA on an annual basis. The ESFA closely monitors the projections submitted each year and will query with the Local Authority any aspect of the projections that it feels warrant further attention. We also maintain a close relationship with our neighbouring boroughs in order to monitor issues that may impact cross border movement of students. Our projections are reviewed on an annual basis and adjustments are made to reflect the most recent trends regarding school attendance.

Information regarding the accuracy of the Havering forecasts can be accessed via the Local Authority school place scorecards 2017 excel tool published by the ESFA.

GLA School roll projections In addition to the in-house school roll projection model that we run in order to inform us of future school place demand in Havering, we also buy into the GLA School Roll Projection service that also provides us with school roll projections for Havering. Although we receive school roll projections from the GLA, we still use our in-house projections as our definitive set of roll projections. The reason for this is because we are able to make adjustments to our in-house projections that reflect local trends and patterns of movement that may not be captured by the GLA. By being able incorporate our local knowledge of demographic changes in Havering in our school roll projections; we are able to produce a more robust set of projections that better reflect what is happening on the ground.

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