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MARIA&DE&OCA& Thank&you&\\& ! TOMOKA&SWEET& LINDSAY&LAFRENIERE& YOSHI&OTA& &Research&\\& CLIMPP.&PHYTOPLANKTON.&BAYESIAN.&WEBSITE.&PACIFIC.&

&Outreach&\\& CONSULTING.&INNOVATION.&DIVERSITY.&COMMUNICATION.&& &Research&\\& Does&a&Bayesian&modeling&approach&capture& B P opt&dynamics&in&the&equatorial&Pacific?& B P opt = Maximum biomass-specific photosynthetic rate in a water column

B PB! P opt! Relevance:

z! - Photosynthetic efficiency

- Parameter of satellite production models Generalized Joint Attribute Modeling (GJAM)

wi ~ MVN (µi, Σ) µi = βixi

Prediction modeling with all data types and all responses jointly

Posterior simulation through Gibbs sampling using non- informative priors for both β and Σ.

Assumptions:

xi = SSTi + MLDi + PAR i b wi = P opti + CHLi+ IPPi

Clark et al. (2015) B Sensitivity P opt β

SST SST MLD -MLD PAR

B MLD has a bigger (-) effect on P opt than SST

Nutrient limitation B SIGMA P opt CHL IPP B P opt 0.6 -0.07 0.1 CHL -0.07 0.4 0.1 IPP 0.1 0.1 0.4

B Much of P opt variance remains unexplained PREDICTION

GJAM in-sample prediction and standard model b do not capture P opt variability CONCLUSIONS

B In the equatorial Pacific P opt is not explained by the physical variables that should control productivity

It is controlled by something else? Fe? Barber & Chavez (1991)

B It is controlled by those physical variables but P opt does not capture their effects? Côté & Platt (1984)

It’s about the data? CONCLUSIONS

B PB! P opt! B P max!

PB! z!

E!

Côté & Platt (1984); Forget et al. (2007) ! Friedrichs et al. (2009)

SSpatial&sample&distribution&over&time& STime&series&vs&transects& SScale&mismatch&

SH CRU WHO I PRC V BOTTOM DA MO YR START END LATITUDE LONGITUDE Press Sta# Sta# DEPTH GMT GMT Max

PR 1 38 77 x ^890 13 2 86 1030 1125 5 O.U8 135 30.48 2^)99.0 PR 1 39 78 x 4061 1^ 2 86 55 121 4 59.69 132 30.83 2495.0 PR 1 /;0 79 x 5023 14 2 86 1225 1205 5 0.25 130 0.19 2505.0 PR 1 bl 80 x 5^63 tk 2 86 1804 1840 5 59.20 130 0.87 2499.0 PR 1 ^2 81 x 555^ 14 2 86 2332 5 6 59.80 129 59.73 2499.0 PR I U3 82 x 5670 15 2 86 535 615 7 53.31 130 O.A^ 2^97.0 PR I ^ 83 x 5853 15 2 86 1147 1224 9 0.97 129 59.01 2495.0 PR 1 45 QU x 5886 15 2 86 1758 1823 10 0.05 130 0.27 2501.0 PR 1 ^ 85 x 5760 15 2 86 2301 2340 11 0.43 129 59.41 2509.0 PR I 47 86 x 5758 16 2 86 437 507 12 0.27 129 59.18 2517.0 PR I 48 87 x 5918 16 2 86 950 1030 13 0.03 130 0.15 2501.0 PR 1 ^9 88 x 5715 16 2 86 1920 19^5 15 0.26 130 0.86 2499.0 PR 1 50 89 x 5164 17 2 86 420 448 16 59.67 129 58.77 2505.0 PR 1 51 90 x 5786 17 2 86 HQit 1131 18 19.59 130 0.01 2497.0 PR 1 52 91 x 5268 17 2 86 1545 1610 18 19.72 128 59.94 2623.0 PR 1 53 92 x ^530 17 2 86 20^2 2107 18 20.99 127 59.90 2541.0 PR 1 54 93 x 4910 18 2 86 124 149 18 20.11 126 59.88 2505.0 PR I 55 94 x 5^06 18 2 86 605 650 18 20.00 125 59.3U 3995.0 PR 1 56 95 x 5^31 18 2 86 IWO 1^28 18 19.96 125 0.22 2499.0

118 119

well as successful. The expertise and attention to detail in winch and running the cast is highly commended as well as the friendly coope- rative attitude shown by everyone on the ship,

^ ^ 0 v0^ aaruiivi

1-Lf ^L -5 ^ VL 176 177 to produce a preliminary report of reduced data. Al Schmidt ( ****<-***** STATION 1-001 ********** Marine Laboratory) devised a series of programs for a "TOGA Cruise Data Mana- Stationin No. 1-001 Date 6MT 08 JftN 86 mnd Speed 13.2 gement System . The accompanying data was processed by this system. Stationsn Name CTD-1 Mess Time BMT 0930 •Wind Sir 95 Lattitude 10,.00. 8 N Dste LOG 07 JAN B6 Ear Press 1009.6 We would like to acknowledge the support and assistance of the crew of Longitude 170,.01. 7 W Mess Time LOC 2230 Sonic Dep 4451 Secchi Dep 27 the R/V XIANGYANGHONG 14. The biological and chemical work was made possible by the enthusiastic help of all participants of the scientific parties of the Depth RealDep Temp S$li nity Densi ty Oxygen Nitrate Nitrite

People's Republic of China and the United States. 0 0 27. 38 33. 283 2i,.344 4.590 0.00 0.00 25 24 27. 33 34. 009 21 .887 4.600 0.00 0.00 50 47 27.'34 34. 010 21 '885 4.590 0.00 0.00 75 70 25. 35 34. 725 22,.955 4.810 0.00 0.00 100 94 22. 71 34. 974 24,.015 4.640 0.00 0.00 125 141 i6. 56 34. 618 25,.342 3.800 6.82 0.12 175 164 14.:31 34. 450 25..715 2.110 20.69 0.00 300 0. 660 31.72 0.00 400 0.830 32.24 0.00 500 0. 660 29.16 0.00 1000 0.910 31.21 0.00

Depth Phosphate Silicate Chloro Phseo FQFA

0 0.02 0.00 0.072 0.027 1.80 25 0.02 0.00 0.058 0.030 1.73 50 0.02 0.00 0.072 0.027 1.80 75 0.02 0.30 0.222 0.127 1.70 100 0.02 0.70 0.310 0.337 1.53 125 0.20 4.50 0.259 0.353 1.47 175 0.99 18.00 0.056 0.105 1.38 300 1.75 35.00 400 1.75 40,00 500 1.40 30.20 1000 1.47 43.00

CARBON REPORT

7. S. I. Depth Chl s. Phaeo Carbon Prod Ind Int Dep

100.0 0 0.072 0.027 1.77 24.58 0.0 50.0 25 0.058 0.030 2.46 42.41 11.0 30.0 25 0.058 0.030 0.84 14.48 i9.0 15.0 50 0.070 0.030 1.33 19.00 30.0 5.0 75 0.220 0.130 0.86 3.91 47.5 1.0 125 0.280 0.340 0.26 1.00 73.0 0.1 175 0.060 0.100 0.02 0.33 147.0

INTE6RATED VALUES (Integrated To 0.1 7.5.1.)

Chlorophyll a 23.38 MG/K2 Carbon Fixation 93.20 M6/M2/Dfi

Phaeophytin 24.35 ME/M2 Productivity Inde>? 3.99 MB-C/MB-CHL/Dft

&Outreach&\\& 16

15-501

Nasher Museum Duke Gardens East Campus Perkins Library Gargoyle Medical Center French Science Center Kilgo Quad Chapel Drive West Union Wilson Rec Duke Gardens Crowell Quad Mill Village West Union Quad East Campus Union The Ark Wilson Residence Hall Bell Tower Williams Field Baldwin Auditorium Lilly Library

ERWIN ROAD ERWIN ROAD MARKHAM AVENUE east Campus uke University traces its roots to 1838, when it was established as Union Institute in Randolph County, . In Branson 1892 the school—renamed Trinity College—relocated to Durham on what is now East Campus. In 1924, Trinity College, a 17 As you begin your East Campus tour near the North Building Phytotron main bus stop, you’ll be in the midst of many of the Baldwin Environment Hall VA Hospital Auditorium long-time beneficiary of Duke family generosity, became the nucleus of Duke University. With a $21 million gift from James Biddle MORREENE RD Greenhouses East Campus residence halls, home to all first-year Art D To Duke Forest/Lemur Ctr W E Music Bldg. Bishop's House CIRCUIT DRIVE Building 21 B. Duke, West Campus was created and East Campus was rebuilt. Today, Duke consists of a breathtaking 9,350-acre campus that CIRCUIT DR students. Although students are assigned randomly WXDU Radio (Continuing Ed) includes two undergraduate schools, nine graduate and professional schools, a world-renowned medical center, a 7,900-acre forest, and Eye Center to housing, they can state preferences French Science Center D Levine Science Research Center 22

To NC 15-501 and I-85 S Hall a beautiful 55-acre garden. The best way to appreciate all that Duke has to offer is to see the campus firsthand. Fuqua for single rooms, single-sex or coed Hall Bassett Res. Bassett School D RESEARCH DRIVE Brookwood Bivins Bldg. Res. Pegram Gross Inn halls, and specific roommates. R. David 20 of Law Hall North Bldg FULTON STREET West Campus 9 On the right is the Bryan University Center, home Thomas Business School Biological courtyard Physics 18 Head up the quad, along the right- Benjamin Duke Center Sciences and Math Engineering Library and Teer Bryan Seeley Statue Academic Advising to several student organizations, theaters, dining D Engineering Administration Research Bldg hand sidewalk, to the East Campus Center

1 The tour begins on Chapel Drive as you walk toward Hall Hudson Hall Mudd Hall (Searle Ctr) Duke Hospital Brown Res. Brown Duke Chapel. On the left, you’ll pass Few Quad, facilities, a craft center, post office, barber shop, Office Union, the center of student life on Res. Alspaugh

SCIENCE DRIVE 8 SCIENCE DRIVE NINTH STREET Dining, East Campus WALKING North named after former university President William of Student Affairs, Multicultural Center, Center for Pratt Medical East Campus. The union, where all first- Williams Field Store, Post Office Parking Deck Engineering Athletic Field Sanford 7 FCIEMAS Center at Jack Katz Memorial S East Preston Few, who oversaw the transformation of Trinity Sexual and Gender Diversity, Fraternity and Sorority year students eat, features The Marketplace, Trinity Stadium Gym/ Lilly D School 10 Parking Library 25 18 Campus East Campus Life, the Gothic Bookshop, and the University Store Reynolds Theater, Café, a coffee bar, and a convenience store. Brodie Rec Union College into Duke University in 1924. D D Garage Center Wellness Center TOUR Griffith Theater Fitzpatrick Center University BROAD STREET 2 In front of the Chapel is the James B. Duke statue (where you can purchase a Duke t-shirt). Bryan Mary Trent Semans Inn 19 Tucked behind the union is the Ark, constructed Tennis Courts Washington Jack Coombs 9 for Interdisciplinary Medical Education 23 19 10 Just beyond the traffic circle is the Pratt School of E Stadium Bookstore Center Engineering, Medicine, in 1898 as the first college gymnasium in North honoring the man whose donation led to the creation Duke Inn V Bell Tower The Ark

I Building

R D & Applied Sciences 24 Rubenstein Hall Chapel Res. Hall Hall of Duke University and the expansion to West Campus. Engineering complex, including the 322,000-square- D Penn Carolina—now used for dance classes and student

D D Note: The first floor of

S Wilson Res.

D Pavilion The Link D Bostock Hall Giles Res. New Student Programs/ The beauty of this area reflects Duke’s desire to have foot Fitzpatrick Center for Interdisciplinary R Page Aud. 11 Bostock Library will be production rehearsals. CAMPUS O Library Family Programs; closed until January 2015 Crowell

F 3 Duke Wellness Center Engineering, Medicine, and Applied Sciences. This T M 20 As you continue along the sidewalk beside the

education, religion, and recreation together in one I Coach K L Plaza for renovations. S H Flowers Res. Hall Res.

Koskinen Center Scharf Hall Blackwell Friedl state-of-the-art facility has laboratory and teaching W N quad, you’ll see the statue of Benjamin N. Duke, community. Perkins School of Nursing Randolph Building Stadium Kilgo Divinity School Asian and Middle 26 Basketball Museum K Res. Hall

West Union tobacco and textile entrepreneur and philanthropist, Carr Bldg. 3 Duke Chapel, the visual focal point of West Campus, MAP space for undergraduates to work with faculty mentors Quad Library von der Heyden Eastern Studies Epworth BUCHANAN BLVD Cameron and Hall of Fame (under renovation) S Old Chemistry Bldg Southgate Res. Hall can accommodate 1,700 people. Standing 210 feet high, in bioengineering, photonics and communications, Pavilion who was the primary benefactor of Murray Bldg Indoor Schwartz-Butters I J O P 4 D Res. Hall integrated environmental sensing and simulation, and Athletic Center EE Trinity College after it relocated to R the Chapel features a 50-bell, four-octave carillon played Stadium H 2 Hanes House Bus Stop DD N James B. Duke Duke Hospital I daily and a custom-designed Flentrop organ, the last of its kind made. Step biologically inspired materials. It includes a cleanroom and a virtual reality 6 Languages Durham. The statue was unveiled 17

Statue 12 Davison South TRENT DRIVE th W MAIN STREET

NC 751 CAMERON BLVD R ERWIN ROAD center, both of which are available to undergraduates. Crowell Clocktower Perkins Building ROAD ERWIN in 1999 as part of Duke’s 75 inside to see the beautiful vaulted ceiling and the 77 stained-glass windows Hall Res. East 5 E Jarvis Hall Res. Areas closed for renovation work 13 Quad Davison Building E Quad Quad Quad depicting stories from the Old Testament and New Testament. 11 Behind the Fitzpatrick Center is the Divinity School, recently expanded Trent Hall anniversary celebration. U Medical D N PETTIGREW STREET White CC E Gilbert-Addoms to accommodate a chapel and additional classroom and office space. Ctr 21 At the end of the grassy quad is Baldwin Statue 4 To the left of the Chapel is the West Union Building, which is currently G Bus Stop Lecture Wallace Wade Sociology/ Center V Res. Hall Card Gym BB F E D C B FF Allen Bldg Hall undergoing a complete renovation to its 110,000 square feet. It is scheduled 12 As you head toward the James B. Duke statue, to the left is Perkins Stadium Social Sciences Bldg Parking Auditorium, the visual focal point of East Campus. A

Yoh Football Yoh Psychology Bldg 28 Pickens Bldg Garage T to reopen in early 2016, and it will feature a state-of-the-art dining center. Library, the core of the university’s library system. With renovations slated R Recently restored to its original condition, West Duke East Duke AA F

Center I Center for to be complete summer of 2015, Perkins is comprised of eight branches, Aquatic S Craven Few the auditorium is the site of many musical 5 Stroll through some of the original residential quads located near the A W Documentary Z Quad Quad S FLOWERS DRIVE S Studies CAMPUS DR 27 West Union Building. Nearby is Keohane Quad, composed of Duke’s which along with the separate graduate and professional school libraries YEARBY AVE performances, student-sponsored speakers, and 29 Duke Student Arts, Culture, & house more than five million volumes and two million public documents, Health Center large lecture-format classes. It is named for Alice M. newest residence halls, as well as Edens Quad, both of which feature a TOWERVIEW ROAD WA Technology Studios; Wilson Rec Ctr Y/W X U T HH The Sower variety of selective living groups including special arts and languages dorms. as well as 17 million manuscripts and tens of thousands of films and videos, Baldwin, Trinity College’s first woman professor who later became MAIN STREET 30 Career Center; Wannamaker Few Women's DukeEngage; 6 Just across Towerview Road are Duke’s intramural and varsity athletic audio recordings, serials, and computer files. The glass-walled von der Center dean of the Woman’s College when it was established in 1930. Quad East Campus Global Education; facilities. Here you’ll find Wilson Recreation Center, where students Heyden Pavilion is a focal point of the expansion. Ambler Tennis GG 22 To the left of Baldwin is the Mary Duke Biddle Music Building, Steam Plant International Office; and staff can play basketball or racquetball, run track, work out, and take 13 Just outside the library are the original academic quad buildings of Stadium 14 featuring grand pianos, organs, and harpsichords in some of the practice John Hope Franklin Institute; 4B 4C Office of Undergraduate

TO WEST CAMPUS Building West Campus, housing many social science, English, and foreign language 4A Duke Gardens rooms, as well as a large rehearsal hall and ensemble rehearsal studios. aerobics or yoga classes. To the right is Card Gym, perhaps best recognized Intramural MILL Scholars & Fellows; 4D The Terraces Carpentry for its grassy area out front—otherwise known as Krzyzewskiville—where departments. Walk across the quad beside the Allen Building, home of ANDERSON STREETVILLAGE Also, on display is a collection of more than 400 rare musical instruments Shop Robertson Scholars;

Sheffield Rose Garden DURHAM FREEWAY (NC 147) Smith Warehouse many top-level administrative offices, toward Flowers Drive and the gardens. Tennis Keohane Quad dating from the late 18th century through the early 20th century. MAXWELL STREET students camp out for basketball tickets before major games. Nearby is D S Uncle Harry’s S 27 Just beyond the Center tu Languages S d Pergola Gardens Bevan McClendon e Grocery Cameron Indoor Stadium, home of the basketball Blue Devils, four-time 14 Across Flowers Drive are the 55-acre Sarah P. Duke Gardens, where you Parking Dorm n S Info 23 Just beyond the tennis courts is Brodie Recreation Center, the athletic bus stop is West Duke t pathway Doris Duke Tower Information A Center c hub of East Campus, where students can take advantage of the gymnasium, men’s NCAA champions and highly ranked women’s team. In this area can explore a panorama of color much of the year. Included are rose and iris Hart K4 CHAPEL DRIVE Building, completed in 1911. Once c e TO NINTH ST s TIP (Talent Residence s are also Wallace Wade Football Stadium, for soccer and gardens, an azalea court, a wisteria pergola, a lily pond, a natural garden of CENTRAL pool, weight room, basketball and racquetball courts, and classes ranging home to the university’s first bookstore O International Identification n CAMPUS House Program) l lacrosse, and the Jack Coombs Baseball Stadium. native plants, and an Asiatic arboretum. The five miles of winding pathways WANNAMAKER DRIVE y Undergraduate from aerobics to yoga. and barbershop, the building now houses classes for Note: Student parking only 1C 2C Hull Avenue 7 At the corner of Science Drive and Towerview Road is the Terry Sanford include many places to read, relax, or picnic. 1A Admissions 24 Adjacent to Brodie and beside the athletic fields is Bell Tower Residence Germanic languages, an interactive learning lab, and ROTC McClendon Commons Dance Studio School of Public Policy, a hub for many highly regarded policy programs 15 After relaxing in the gardens, you’ll probably be ready for a little exercise. 2A (Visitors Center) Disability Hall, Duke’s newest dorm on East Campus. The residence hall includes offices. HULL rt po Edens Quad Management ir Head to Anderson Street, turn right, and walk two blocks to the spectacular 1 A classroom and laundry facilities, a new campus police substation, and the 28 In the center of the nearby quad you’ll see the statue of Washington and centers—among them, the DeWitt Wallace Center for Communications o 40 1B Trinity T I- and Journalism and the Hart Leadership Program, which helps students , on the corner of Anderson Street and Duke North Parking Technology Parking & Muslim Life original Trinity College bell. Duke, for whom the university is named. Duke began contributing to Services Transportation ALEXANDER AVENUE develop their own visions of leadership in government, business, art, and University Road. It’s a bit of a hike, but well worth it. This 65,000-square- W Organization for 25 If you’ll head back toward the quad, you’ll find the beautiful Lilly Library Trinity College before it moved to Durham and was instrumental in getting 3A Duke Univ. humanitarian fields. foot museum was designed by renowned architect Rafael Viñoly. Its five Alumni Police Tropical Studies at the traffic circle. Once the site of the university’s art museum, the library the school to relocate here. Affairs FABER Smart Home pavilions house three gallery spaces, an auditorium, a museum shop, 3B OREGON STREET was completely renovated in 1993. It now houses the entire fine arts book 8 As you head back up Science Drive toward the main part of West Campus, CAMPUS DRIVE 29 Across the drive is East Duke Building, originally the main DUKE UNIVERSITY ROAD CAMPUS DRIVE Freeman Center you’ll pass many of Duke’s cutting-edge research facilities, including the classrooms, offices, and a café. (MERGES WITH NC 751) SWIFT DAVE collection and features the tranquil Chinese reading room and several administrative building of Trinity College, now home to the university’s art E for Jewish Life 16 A short drive from West Campus is Duke Forest, where 30 miles of trails wind Forlines computer labs. French Family Science Center, which provides research and teaching space in S House TO EAST CAMPUS and art history and women’s studies departments. through mixed hardwood and pine forests. Within Duke Forest, the Lemur Center For more information about Graduate School Nasher Museum of Art 26 As you continue down the quad toward the bus stop, you’ll pass Carr 30 Don’t be surprised if you find pennies in the hand of the Sower statue biological anthropology and anatomy, chemistry, mathematics, and physics; Admissions Nicholas Institute the Phytotron Greenhouse chambers, designed to simulate any climate in houses the world’s largest collection of endangered prosimian primates in naturalistic Public Offices Arts Building, housing classrooms and a foreign language lab. The building is in front of East Duke Building. During the early 20th century, he played the Duke University, visit CHAPEL DRIVEAffairs Undergraduate Financial Aid; 15 the world; the Levine Science Research Center, and the newly completed enclosures. Tours of the center are available by appointment, (919) 489-3364. Annex named for Julian Shakespeare Carr, North Carolina’s first millionaire who role of Cupid. As couples strolled the campus, they placed pennies in his www.duke.edu. Student Loan Office D

Environment Hall, home to the Nicholas School of the Environment. ACADEMY RD worked with Washington Duke to move Trinity College to Durham. hand, and if the pennies disappeared, the woman gave her date a kiss. DUKE UNIVERSITY ROAD

Duke University Offce of Academic/Administrative Housing Undergraduate Admissions Academic/Administrative Housing 2138 Campus Drive Athletics Medical Center Box 90586 Athletics Medical Center Durham, NC 27708-0586 DUKE UNIVERSITY Hotel Accommodations D Dining S Snacks Published by the Office of Undergraduate Admissions, June 2014. Hotel Accommodations D Dining S Snacks West Campus (919) 684-3214 East Campus DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA www.admissions.duke.edu Map is not to scale and is intended to approximate building locations. Impact!Assessment! Strategy! Marke2ng! SHARING NEW IDEAS, CREATIVE STRATEGIES, AND CUTTING-EDGE TOOLS TO REALIZE SOCIAL MISSIONS

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&Acknowledgements&\\&

Pat&Halpin,&Jim&Clark,&Dick&Barber,&Charlie&Stock& CLARK&LAB&–&Bijan,&Chase& COMPUTER&SC.&DEPT.&–&Mercy,&Animesh& MGEL&–&Shay,&Erin,&Ben,&Ben,&Andre,&Daniel& DUKE&MARINE&LAB&–&Lisa&Campbell& DISI&TEAM&&&TASK&FORCE&& &Questions&\&&Suggestions& & & & & &