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Post Election Analysis (2)” of the Frederick T The original documents are located in Box 50, folder “ Post Election Analysis (2)” of the Frederick T. Steeper Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald R. Ford donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Digitized from Box 50 of the Frederick T. Steeper Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library Historical Summary of General Election Exit Polls: Presidential Elections: 1992 and 1996 GOP Vote Subgroup CBS/NYT 1992 GOP Vote 1992 GOP Margin VNS 1996 1996 GOP Margin Total 100 38 -5 100 41 -8 Men 47 38 -3 48 44 1 Women 53 37 -8 52 38 -16 Whites 87 40 1 83 46 3 Blacks 8 10 -73 10 12 -72 Hispanics 2 25 -36 5 21 -51 ~ White men 48 1 40 3 48 7 49 Ji' 11 White women 52 • 41 0 52 • 43 - f' -5 18-29 21 34 -9 17 34 -19 30-44 36 38 -3 33 41 -7 45-59 23 40 -1 26 41 -7 60 and older 20 38 -12 24 44 -4 18-64 87 37 -6 84 40 -9 65 and older 13 39 -11 16 43 -7 Men, 18-29 17 38 -9 Men, 30-44 33 46 5 Men, 45-59 27 43 -1 Men, 60 and older 24 48 5 Women, 18-29 17 31 -27 Women, 30-44 33 37 -17 Women, 45-59 26 40 -12 Women, 60 and older 23 41 -12 Family income < $15K 14 23 -35 11 28 -31 $15K-$29,999 24 35 -10 23 36 -17 $30K-$49,999 30 38 -3 27 40 -8 $50K-$74,999 20 41 1 21 45 -2 $75,000-$99,999 9 48 4 12 48 12 Over $100,000 9 54 16 Not a HS grad 7 28 -26 6 28 -31 HS grad 25 36 -7 24 35 -16 Some college 29 37 -4 27 40 -8 College graduate 23 41 2 26 46 2 Post grad education 16 36 ® 17 40 ® Married 66 41 1 66 46 2 Not married 33 31 -21 34 31 -26 Gay/Lesbian/Bisexual 2 14 -58 5 23 -43 Union Household 19 24 -31 23 30 -29 Employed Full Time 55 38 -3 64 40 -8 Working Women 29 35 -10 29 35 -21 Children under 18 36 38 -2 37 41 -7 " Gun Owner 37 51 13 .. Historical Summary of General Election Exit Polls: Presidential Elections: 1992 and 1996 GOP Vote Subgroup CBS/NYT 1992 GOP Vote 1992 GOP Margin VNS 1996 1996 GOP Margin Protestant 42 45 9 38 50 9 Catholic 27 35 -9 29 37 -16 Other Christian 14 38 -1 16 41 -4 Jewish 4 11 -69 3 16 -62 Else 6 26 -27 6 23 -37 None 7 18 -44 7 23 -36 White Prot/Christian 56 47 14 56 53 17 White BA (92) Religious Rgt (96) 17 62 39 17 65 39 Abortion Always Legal 34 20 -38 25 21 -48 Mostly Legal 29 34 -11 35 33 -22 Mostly Illegal 23 56 30 25 57 25 Always Illegal 9 63 39 12 68 45 Republicans 35 73 63 35 80 67 Independents 27 32 -6 26 35 -8 Democrats 38 10 -67 39 10 -74 Conservatives 30 64 46 33 71 51 Moderates 49 31 -16 47 33 -24 Liberals 21 14 -54 20 11 -67 Voted Dukakis 88 (Clinton 92) 27 5 -78 43 9 -76 Voted Bush 88 (Bush 92) 53 59 38 35 82 69 Voted Perot 92 12 44 22 Voted Other 88 (Other 92) 2 5 -61 1 36 12 Did not vote in 88 (92) 15 26 -22 9 33 -20 Financial Situation Better 24 61 37 33 26 -40 Worse 34 14 -47 20 57 30 Same 41 42 1 45 45 -1 National Econ. Condition Excel. 1 35 -18 4 17 -61 Good 18 82 74 51 31 -31 Not Good 47 37 -6 36 52 18 Poor 32 12 -52 7 51 28 Country on Right Direction 53 24 -45 Wrong Track 43 61 38 ( ( 20 State Census Numbers - Registered Voters AGE/GENDER Male 18-24 0.051 0.048 0.053 0.037 0.039 0.041 0.044 0.055 0.041 0.051 0.040 0.052 0.050 0.045 0.065 0.042 0.014 0.035 0.025 0.043 0.05 Male 25-44 0.192 0.201 0.187 0.198 0.196 0.187 0.191 0.204 0.182 0.206 0.180 0.193 0.184 0.215 0.160 0.224 0.193 0.180 0.208 0.208 0.19 Male 45-64 0.140 0.132 0.155 0.136 0.142 0.161 0.150 0.156 0.152 0.144 0.145 0.142 0.158 0.140 0.137 0.151 0.151 0.155 0.144 0.161 0.15 Male 65+ 0.088 0.093 0.071 0.082 0.097 0,076 0.101 o.on 0.094 0.066 0.086 0.070 0.082 0.082 0.091 o.on 0.097 0.097 0.095 0.068 0.08 Female 18-24 0.048 0.054 0.055 0.063 0.039 0.051 0.044 0.051 0.047 0.055 0.046 0.057 0.038 0.052 0.061 0.048 0.037 0.053 0.048 0.046 0.05 Female 25-44 0.208 0.203 0.218 0.220 0.204 0.200 0.185 0.211 0.195 0.239 0.222 0.238 0.170 0.205 0.202 0.231 0.228 0.223 0.220 0.214 0.21 Female 45-64 0.158 0.150 0.161 0.172 0.163 0.173 0.166 0.151 0.174 0.159 0.168 0.161 0.110 0.172 0.182 0.147 0.166 0.163 0.149 o.1n 0.16 Female 65+ 0.116 0.119 0.099 0.091 0.120 0.110 0.118 0.094 0.115 0.080 0.112 0.086 0.208 0.090 0.104 0.079 0.114 0.096 0.113 0.082 0.11 GENDER Male 0.470 0.473 0.466 0.454 0.474 0.466 0.486 0.493 0.469 0.467 0.451 0.458 0.474 0.482 0.451 0.494 0.455 0.466 0.471 0.481 0.47 Female 0.530 0.527 0.534 0.546 0.526 0.534 0.514 0.507 0.531 0.533 0.549 0.542 0.526 0.518 0.549 0.506 0.545 0.534 0.529 0.519 0.53 AGE 18-24 0.098 0.102 0.108 0.101 0.079 0.092 0.088 0.106 0.088 0.106 0.086 0.109 0.088 0.097 0.126 0.090 0.052 0.087 0.072 0.089 0.10 25-44 0.399 0.404 0.405 0.419 0.400 0.387 o.3n 0.415 0.376 0.445 0.402 0.431 0.392 0.419 0.362 0.455 0.421 0.402 0.428 0.423 0.41 45-64 0.298 0.281 0.317 0.308 0.305 0.335 0.316 0.306 0.327 0.303 0.314 0.304 0.327 0.312 0.318 0.298 0.317 0.316 0.293 0.337 0.31 65+ 0.205 0.212 0.170 0.173 0.217 0.186 0.219 0.171 0.209 0.147 0.198 0.156 0.192 0.172 0.195 0.156 0.210 0.194 0.207 0.151 0.19 RACE White 0.821 0.970 0.857 0.921 0.854 0.908 0.903 0.956 0.819 0.702 0.923 0.709 0.798 0.819 0.941 0.957 0.919 0.911 0.961 0.946 0.87 Black 0.167 0.015 0.125 0.076 0.127 0.087 0.089 0.033 0.171 0.290 0.073 0.287 0.180 0.178 0.037 0.021 0.050 0.015 0.022 0.013 0.12 Hispanic 0.026 0.008 0.017 0.010 0.075 0.006 0.016 0.011 0.002 0.006 0.001 0.011 0.004 0.003 0.125 0.081 0.045 0.336 0.018 O.o19 0.03 20statecens 20 Key States % Decision... 2000 Page 1of10 National 1-~,l\~ditio~aJ presidential exit polls-- B Vote for President in today's election 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Are you: % of total category % of category 48 Male 42 53 0 3 52 Female 54 43 0 2 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Whites only % of total category % of category 48 Male 36 60 0 3 52 Female 48 49 0 2 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Are you: % of total category % of category 81 White 42 54 0 3 10 Black 90 9 0 1 '---" Back to front 7 Hispanic/Latino 62 35 1 2 2 Asian 55 41 1 3 •National results 1 Other 55 39 0 4 •President 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER •Senate To which age group do you belong? •House % of total category % of category •Govemor 17 18-29 48 46 1 5 33 30-44 48 49 0 2 • state results 28 45-59 48 49 1 2 • ExitpoUs 22 60+ 51 47 0 2 •Help 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Age-65 & over % of total category % of category 86 18-64 48 48 0 3 14 65+ 50 47 0 2 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER What was the last grade of school you completed? % of total category % of category 5 No high school 59 39 1 1 21 High School graduate 48 49 1 1 32 Some college 45 51 0 3 24 College Graduate 45 51 0 3 18 Post graduate studies 52 44 0 3 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Do you have a college education? % of total category % of category 58 Not completed 47 49 1 2 42 Completed 48 48 0 3 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER 1999 total family income: % of total category % of category 7 Less than 15,000 57 37 1 4 16 15,000-30,000 54 41 1 3 24 30,000-50,000 49 48 0 2 25 50,000-75,000 46 51 0 2 http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polls.asp ?office=P&state=N 1 11/8/00 Decision 2000 Page 2of10 13 75,000-100,000 45 52 0 2 15 Over 100,000 43 54 0 2 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Are you currently married? % of total category % of category 65 Yes 44 53 1 2 ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 4 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Do you have any children under 18 living in your household? % of total category % of category 39 Yes 45 52 0 2 61 No 50 46 1 3 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Are you married with children? % of total category % of category 31 Yes 41 56 0 2 69 No 51 44 1 3 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Do you work full-time for pay? % of total category % of category 67 Yes 49 48 0 2 33 No 47 48 1 3 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Working women: % of total category % of category 31 Yes 58 39 0 2 69 No 44 52 1 3 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a: % of total category % of category 39 Democrat 86 11 0 2 35 Republican 8 91 0 1 27 Independent 45 47 1 6 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union? % of total category % of category 26 Yes 59 37 3 74 No 44 52 0 2 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Do you, or does someone in your household belong to a labor union? % of total category % of category 16 lam 62 34 1 3 10 Someone else in house 54 41 1 3 ~ ~ 44 ~ 0 2 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Which best describes you? % of total category Q % of category Upper class 4 0 vS6 39 0 3 27 Upper-middle class 43 54 0 3 46 Middle class 48 49 0 2 18 Working class 51 46 0 3 2 Lower class 0 0 0 0 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER On most political matters, do you consider yourself: % of total category % of category 20 Liberal 80 13 1 6 50 Moderate 52 44 0 2 29 Conservative 17 81 0 1 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Is this the first time you have ever voted? % of total category % of category 9 Yes 52 43 1 4 91 No 48 48 0 2 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER Are you gay, lesbian or bisexual? % of total category % of category 4 Yes 70 25 0 4 http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polls.asp ?office=P&state=N 1 11/8/00 Decision 2000 Page 3of10 96 No 47 50 0 3 0 GORE BUSH BUCHANAN NADER In the 1996 election for President, did you vote for: % of total category % of category 46 Clinton 82 15 1 2 31 Dole
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