FEB. 13, 2012 REPORT BAD BOUNCES BLEMISH BRADEN’S SEASON DEBUT FOR CAPS

It’s so funny how suddenly things can change. It reminds me of the saying, “Out of sight, out of mind,” because it really rings true for all the goalies working their tails off in the AHL to prove they’re ready for the NHL. Sometimes you just have no idea how good they’ve become until you see them in action. In this case, I’m talking about prospect Braden Holtby. Up to this point in the season, Holtby has been considered a “disappointment” by many reporters and scouts, mainly due to his inconsistent play in Hershey. But with 10 wins in a 16-games stretch that started in early-December and ended in late-January, I wasn’t sure what to think; I hadn’t seen him play since last season. Nevertheless, he was somewhat out of mind this season due to his “up and down” play in the AHL. He has had some really good nights, but there have also been some really bad nights as well. This is the case for almost every prospect at every level, but it’s still not something I want to see transpire from a goalie who has consistently been ranked as one of my Top-10 prospects. After Holtby was pulled in a game against the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins back on Feb. 3 (allowed three goals on 21 shots), he bounced back with three straight wins, stopping all but five shots in those three games.This strong surge over the past week may have been the tipping point that prompted to make the risky and surprising decision to start Holtby against the Sharks. Heading into Monday night’s game, Holtby was 18-11-1 in the AHL with a 2.55 goals-against average and .909 save percentage, along with two . He was recalled by Washington early in the afternoon when it was reported that Tomas Vokoun was too sick to dress for the game. was labeled as they likely starter all day long, but when the Capitals hit the ice for pre-game warmups, Holtby was leading the charge, signifying he was the official starter. Earning the start over Neuvirth came as a surprise to everyone except for the players on the team, so it certainly shifted the organization’s goaltending Braden Holtby photo provided by Tom Turk - Piratical Photography paradigm. Why Hunter actually made this decision will probably never be known, but it was most likely a combination of many different things. It could have been to showcase Holtby to some NHL scouts. It could have stretch throughout the course of an entire season. been to reward him for his recent play in Hershey. It could have been a simple The best example of this “bad puck luck” right now is seen in Corey Crawford’s hunch. Regardless, the decision was a very tough pill for Neuvirth to swallow. game, as he continues to fight off bad bounces, tough losses, and inconsistency I do feel like Hunter deserves to take some heat for this decision, but part due to a wavering of his internal confidence. It’s not “solid” goaltending, but I still of being an NHL backup is dealing with these type of situations. Neuvirth can’t loved a lot of what I saw from Holtby tonight in terms of his style and technique. control when a coach acts on a hunch, so he simply has to live with it, forget it, For example, I really liked his straight back in the butterfly, something you see and work harder in practice on Tuesday. Alas, Hunter decision didn’t pan out as in the photo above. He was upright and square all night long, and I was pleased he had hoped, and the Capitals ultimately lost to the Sharks by a 5-3 score. to see that he still has very good discipline when dropping into and popping out On Monday morning, I had set up a Live Scouting Notebook to document and of the butterfly. His posture is excellent for his size, and it’s one of his best traits. dissect Thomas Greiss and Neuvirth in the game. It therefore became quite ironic As I have seen over the past few years, Holtby’s butterfly recoveries are very that I had e-mailed all of my members and mentioned how it had been a while quick, and this makes it easy to see he has the natural anatomy of an effective since a prospect was recalled to make his season debut; I had not completed a NHL puck-stopper. In essence, I think Holtby has the quickness and the reaction private scouting report like this in just over a month...until now. speed to be a top-flight NHL goalie when he reaches his prime. His high energy Since Holtby ended up playing, my Live Scouting Notebook covers his level, active hands, and active mindset make him quite the dynamic , performance. I’m glad it worked out this way, because it allows me to dedicate so he’s a true crowd pleaser, a momentum-shifter, a battler, and a goalie capable more space on this page to analyzing his situation moving forward. of making the desperation saves look somewhat routine. Ultimately, I think the most important aspect of Holtby’s current situation is how CLICK HERE FOR NOTES ON HOLTBY IN THE LIVE SCOUTING BLOG he displays mental toughness, especially in terms of understanding his situation with the Caps. I’m led to believe that he feels he’s ready for the NHL -- he’ll want Overall, I was fairly impressed with the progress Holtby has made since I to stay up with the team. But when he inevitably returns to Hershey, he must had last evaluated him. He’s more controlled with his movements, he’s more realize that, even though his technique might be polished enough to stay, his composed in terms of letting pucks come to him, and he’s more patient moving mind isn’t. In fact, I feel the mind is never fully polished at the NHL level -- you the puck behind his net. He has quieter feet, better upper body positioning, and must battle hard to track pucks, push through screens, anticipate moments when improved balance as a result of both of those things. These improved (slightly) vision is impeded, and constantly make the big saves at the right times. elements of his game, I believe, also improves his rebound control, and this more This is why I say Holtby is not quite ready for the NHL on a full-time basis. He polished appearance allowed him to manage the puck better. has to learn how to take bad bounces in a manner that doesn’t cause him to stop I was really pleased with the way Holtby stayed poised following the nasty working hard. He needs a big-time AHL playoff run with the Bears. from beyond center ice. It was not only deflected, but it bounced twice off the ice, In conclusion, I can safely say that, biomechanically and technically speaking, so it was a truly gnarly that caught him waving the glove at the wrong time. Holtby is going to be very effective at the NHL level. But now he has to earn But after that goal, he didn’t appear rattled one bit. He stayed “locked in” to his a full-time NHL gig by paying his dues, staying patient mentally, and by not movements, his rebound control didn’t suffer, and he showed no hesitation at all. expecting opportunities to fall in his lap. His work ethic has to keep rising, his intensity needs to stay at a high level, and he has to continue to remember that CLOSING THOUGHTS ON HOLTBY’S CURRENT VALUE he can always work on something, that he can always get better every day. Holtby will continue to be a Top-5 prospect in my monthly rankings -- his I think the biggest shift that comes from Holtby’s performance in the 5-3 loss potential and his current skill level truly calls for it. But like all of the other top was the fact he displayed improved elements of his game, but at the same time, prospects out there, maturity, consistency, stability, and poise are the more proved he’s still not 100-percent ready for a full-time NHL gig. This game seemed important areas of his game that needs to continue improving. like a microcosm of his season in the sense that, sometimes, a goalie just doesn’t There’s no “quick solution” for these elements - they simply evolve over time. get the bounces. This can happen not only within a single game, but it can Patience is a virtue, and it really rings true when I’m discussing Braden Holtby.