0221 Effect of Minimum Wages on Employment in Emerging Economies
THE EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGES ON EMPLOYMENT IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: A LITERATURE REVIEW Stijn Broecke (OECD), Alessia Forti (OECD) and Marieke Vandeweyer (KU Leuven) Abstract The literature on the employment impact of minimum wages in emerging economies is scant, but growing rapidly. To date, virtually no attempt has been made to systematically review the existing evidence. Using both qualitative as well as quantitative (regression meta-analysis) methods, this paper reviews the evidence on the employment impact of increases in the minimum wage in ten major emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Russian Federation, South Africa and Turkey). Overall, increases in the minimum wage are found to have only a minimal (or no) impact on employment in emerging economies. While more vulnerable groups (the low-skilled, youth and low-wage earners) are slightly more likely to be negatively affected, these effects are quantitatively very small. The impact on formality is positive, but also extremely small. The paper does find evidence that more recent studies are more likely to find positive employment effects. There is also some indication that methodology and the type of data used might have an independent effect on the direction and significance of the minimum wage coefficient. Introduction Despite decades of research and hundreds of papers on the topic, the debate about the impact of minimum wages on employment in advanced economies is still raging. The recent exchanges in the United States between Dube et al. (2010), Allegretto et al. (2011), Allegretto et al. (2013), on the one hand, and Neumark et al. (2014; forthcoming), on the other, bear testimony to this fact.
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