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Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Semi-Arid Regions of Southern Africa

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Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Semi-Arid Regions of Southern Africa Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Semi-Arid Regions of Southern Africa 1 About ASSAR Working Papers This series is based on work funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA). CARIAA aims to build the resilience of vulnerable populations and their livelihoods in three climate change hot spots in Africa and Asia. The program supports collaborative research to inform adaptation policy and practice. Titles in this series are intended to share initial findings and lessons from research and background studies commissioned by the program. Papers are intended to foster exchange and dialogue within science and policy circles concerned with climate change adaptation in vulnerability hotspots. As an interim output of the CARIAA program, they have not undergone an external review process. Opinions stated are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of IDRC, DFID, or partners. Feedback is welcomed as a means to strengthen these works: some may later be revised for peer-reviewed publication. Contact Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia c/o International Development Research Centre PO Box 8500, Ottawa, ON Canada K1G 3H9 Tel: (+1) 613-236-6163; Email: [email protected] Funded by: 2 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Semi-Arid Areas in Southern Africa Contributing authors: Dr Dian Spear1 Emilia Haimbili2 Margaret Angula Dr Marie-Ange Baudoin1 Dr Salma Hegga1 Dr Modathir Zaroug1 Alicia Okeyo1 1University of Cape Town (UCT) Private Bag X3 Rondebosch 7701 South Africa http://www.uct.ac.za/ 2University of Namibia (UNAM) Windhoek Namibia http://www.unam.edu.na 3 Table of Contents List of Acronyms ....................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 9 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCING THE REGIONAL DIAGNOSTIC STUDY ........................................... 11 1.1 Expected outcomes .................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Audience for the report .............................................................................................. 13 1.3 Approach for the RDS phase ...................................................................................... 15 1.3.1 Key informant interviews ................................................................................ 15 1.3.2 Regional climate messages ............................................................................. 15 1.4 Data gathering methods ............................................................................................. 16 1.5 Framing of Social-Ecological Systems ......................................................................... 16 CHAPTER 2: THE REGIONAL TO SUB-NATIONAL CONTEXT ..................................................... 19 2.1 Geographical location of the semi-arid regions of southern Africa ........................... 20 2.2 Socio-economic context ............................................................................................. 21 2.2.1 Poverty ............................................................................................................ 21 2.2.2 Economies and development .......................................................................... 21 2.2.3 Unemployment ............................................................................................... 22 2.2.4 Population dynamics ....................................................................................... 23 2.2.5 Gender issues .................................................................................................. 23 2.2.6 Land tenure ..................................................................................................... 24 2.2.7 Crime ............................................................................................................... 24 2.2.8 Government .................................................................................................... 24 2.2.9 Environment .................................................................................................... 24 2.2.10 Culture ............................................................................................................. 25 2.2.11 Health .............................................................................................................. 25 2.3 Socio-ecological systems and livelihoods ................................................................... 26 CHAPTER 3: CLIMATE CHANGE, TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA ............ 27 3.1 Observed Variability and Trends ................................................................................ 28 3.1.1 Trends in extreme rainfall and temperature ................................................... 37 3.2 Future climate projections ......................................................................................... 38 4 CHAPTER 4: RISKS, IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY ................................................................ 43 4.1 Drivers of vulnerability ............................................................................................... 44 4.1.1 Limited institutional support ........................................................................... 44 4.1.2 Reactive versus anticipatory planning ............................................................ 45 4.1.3 Poverty ............................................................................................................ 45 4.1.4 Unemployment ............................................................................................... 45 4.1.5 Limited access to loans and to farmers’ insurance ......................................... 46 4.1.6 Low level of education and literacy ................................................................ 46 4.1.7 Population growth ........................................................................................... 47 4.1.8 Migration ......................................................................................................... 47 4.1.9 Health .............................................................................................................. 48 4.1.10 Low livelihood diversification .......................................................................... 49 4.1.11 Reliance on subsistence agriculture ................................................................ 49 4.1.12 Reliance on livestock rearing ........................................................................... 50 4.1.13 Erosion of traditional knowledge and networks ............................................. 51 4.1.14 Cultural beliefs and superstition ..................................................................... 51 4.1.15 Government programmes that engender dependence .................................. 51 4.1.16 Low productivity of land .................................................................................. 52 4.1.17 Limited crop diversification ............................................................................. 52 4.1.18 Limited irrigation capacity ............................................................................... 52 4.1.19 Lack of access to information and relevant technologies ............................... 52 4.1.20 Unsustainable use of natural resources .......................................................... 53 4.1.21 Urbanisation .................................................................................................... 54 4.1.22 Inadequate infrastructure ............................................................................... 55 4.1.23 Summary of key vulnerabilities ....................................................................... 56 4.2 Biophysical impacts of climate change ....................................................................... 56 4.3 The vulnerability of different groups to climate change in SARs ............................... 59 4.3.1 Smallholders .................................................................................................... 60 4.3.2 Women ............................................................................................................ 61 4.3.3 Marginalised groups ........................................................................................ 65 4.3.4 Other vulnerable groups ................................................................................. 65 4.4 The key governance dimensions of climate change vulnerability .............................. 65 4.4.1 Institutional configurations ............................................................................. 66 4.4.2 Knowledge and sharing of information on climate change ............................ 68 5 CHAPTER 5: THE ADAPTATION-DEVELOPMENT SPECTRUM .................................................. 71 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 72 5.2 Coping with a changing climate in the SARs ............................................................... 73 5.2.1 Selling livestock ..............................................................................................
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