2015 NFL SCOUTING REPORT

APRIL 20, 2015

NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: RB , Indiana

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

Honestly, I see more of Jamaal Charles in Tevin Coleman than I see Charles in (the world keeps comparing Jamaal to Melvin).

Actually, I see a better overall NFL RB prospect in Coleman than Gordon as well. I did not anticipate making that statement…or even ‘liking’ Coleman at all going into a full study. I thought he was a touch small of a prospect to get too excited about for the NFL.

Initially, I wanted to write Coleman off as another ‘good’ RB waltzing through the run-game defensive sieve that is called the Big-10. Seemingly, the Big-10 is the new home of every RB wrecking the opposition…a mix of solid RB talent, and throwback offenses…a.k.a. ‘vertically challenged’ passing games. The Big-10 does not have as progressive of passing offenses as the rest of the power conferences. The last time a Big-10 QB made any difference in the NFL was when entered the league in 2001.

In the past 13 years, the most NFL-productive QB drafted from the Big-10 is Kyle Orton…with a distant second. THAT’S THE BEST QBs THAT THE CONFERENCE HAS PRODUCED IN 13 YEARS! There hasn’t been a Big-10 QB even selected in the past two drafts ( doesn’t count). * excluded. He was an NC State product for three years, who finished his career with a transfer to Wisconsin.

The Big-10 is known for its running game now, and talented RBs are smartly committing there because they are featured and then some. Four of the consensus top-10 ranked RBs in this draft are from the Big- 10...the SEC has three. Tevin Coleman is arguably the best of the 2015 group from the Big-10.

You can make a case for being a better all-around RB prospect for the NFL—a guy who can carry the ball 5-10x a game and catch passes--a Darren Sproles-a-like.

You can make a case for Melvin Gordon as best of the Big-10 bunch. He was a stunningly productive runner in college, but I like highly productive RB Tevin Coleman better. Coleman blew up the Big-10 just like Gordon, but did so on a lesser team with an Offensive Line inferior to Wisconsin (all college O-Lines may be inferior to Wisconsin’s year in and out). I recently saw where one NFL scout made the claim that

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if Coleman were on Wisconsin last season—he’d have matched or surpassed Gordon’s numbers. I didn’t quite believe that claim at first, but after more study—I concur.

Gordon and Coleman are a lot alike--same conference, big output numbers, right around 6’0” tall, decent hands, both under 220-pounds (which is a line of scouting demarcation in NFL scouting circles). Where Coleman seems to have Gordon beat: Coleman tested much faster in his 40-time...an elite speed- time. In Gordon’s favor: Gordon is seven-pounds thicker of frame than Coleman—that means a lot in the NFL with RB prospects considerably under 220-pounds.

I watch Gordon on tape, and I see a great college RB working a Wisconsin ‘system’ that has pushed previous RB prospects to high draft status and into the NFL…and they have all flopped to varying degrees--Gordon could be just the latest. When I think of Gordon, I think of a runner afforded excellent holes, and like any RB who runs a 4.5+ in college…he’s going to fly through them to success—just like .

With Coleman, I see a lot of the same thing as Gordon—fast guy in college darting through holes and making numbers. However, Indiana isn’t the O-Line factory that Wisconsin is. Coleman is a fast guy darting through holes, but what I started noticing more watching more tape is more ‘nuanced’/eye of the beholder…and hard to quantify, but I tried.

What I think I saw/tracked:

Melvin Gordon had massive holes opened for him at Wisconsin last year. Because he’s a 4.5 runner, he is going fly through them, and leave the front-seven in the dust. I took a sampling of longer runs by Gordon against Bowl teams/tougher opponents—and just looking at runs up the middle/off-. I found Gordon had holes mostly 3-5+ yards wide on many carries and he would race through them for 10+ yards before being touched. If you give any RB who runs a 4.5 40-time a giant hole, then he’s darting through it for numbers.

Here’s the main twist of those long runs: Gordon was very often caught from behind, downfield once he was sprung from the giant hole afforded. He’d have the big run, to his credit, but defenders could catch up to him. That’s different than with Coleman.

When I looked at the same items with Coleman, sampling longer runs against better opponents on runs up the middle/off-tackle, there was a difference to me:

-- Coleman averaged an open hole size of about 2-3 yards, whereas Gordon was more 3-5+ yards wide. Gordon had much more generous space to work with.

-- Coleman was taking more hits from the front-seven on his big runs but was often rolling through the contact…whereas Gordon was much more likely to go scot-free for 10-yards before seeing any contact. Coleman saw more contact and congestion and took contact better than Gordon.

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-- Coleman was much more likely to leave defenders in the dust once he exploded past 10+ yards on his tote, whereas Gordon was caught from behind more than Coleman.

I have worried from day-one watching tape that Gordon is ‘good’, but ‘lucky’. He is a 4.5+ runner with average agility, an NFL-worthy RB, playing for a team opening gaping holes for him to run untouched through—and thus racking major numbers…and thus skewing national scouting of him.

I thought Coleman was going to earn the same label as Gordon—a 4.5s runner with nice holes vs. slow Big-10 defenses. It’s not that. It’s Coleman the 4.4s runner getting to the second-level, and then kicking another gear past everyone.

I make all of these Coleman-Gordon comparisons here not to kill off Melvin Gordon. He’s a solid NFL prospect, but Tevin Coleman is better…or at least in a debate as being better. The fact that they are separated by 20-50 spots in most analyst’s mock drafts is ludicrous…and makes for an intriguing draft bargain on Coleman.

Tevin Coleman is a solid citizen. He is a talented RB with NFL-speed and athleticism. He is visually more impressive than top Big-10 RB prospects Melvin Gordon, or Ameer Abdullah, or , or David Cobb. I found visual and statistical faults with Gordon-Abdullah-Langford-Cobb, and I assumed I would find the same with Coleman once he had his Pro Day, and I started watching all his tape. To my shock, I cannot find the same flaw.

My only real negative: I hate under 220-pound RB prospects for the NFL…

Ameer Abdullah, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

. Here’s what would slightly scare me on Tevin Coleman from a statistical standpoint:

In 2014, Coleman averaged 22.5 carries for 169.7 yards rushing (7.5 ypc) and 1.2 rushing TDs per game. A fine season, and he was obviously the main ballcarrier.

However, in 2013 Coleman had to wrestle the job from the much more athletically gifted Stephen Houston—and he did take the job, kinda. In 2013, Houston had five games where he ran the ball 10+ times in a game, and I am also adding his 2012 season finale of 28 carries against Purdue. So the last six- times Stephen Houston got carries/featured anywhere close to Coleman-2014, then Houston’s output numbers were: 17.2 carries for 128.7 yards rushing (7.3 ypc) and 1.3 rushing TDs per game.

Coleman and Houston had very similar output numbers when Houston got a feature treatment down the stretch of his college career. Coleman took 31% more touches in our comparison…give Houston a 31% touch count bump, and he averages a theoretical: 168.4 yards per game with 1.7 TDs per game on a similar workload with Coleman.

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Is Indiana’s system, or are the Big-10 defenses, or both…pushing RB output to greater heights, and making us overrate them for the pros?

Again, either the Big-10 is home to the greatest RB prospects that roam the earth, or really good RB prospects are going north to the Big-10 to run circles around slower defenses. Just a theory.

You cannot find much flaw with Coleman’s 2014: 11 of 12 games with 100+ or more yards rushing in a game. He’s popped 100+ rushing in 13 of his last 14 contests. Coleman rocked Ohio State for 228 yards rushing and 3 TDs, including two of the TD runs of 50+ yards…and one of them a 90-yarder. He racked up 132 yards rushing against the vaunted Michigan State defense, on just 13 carries.

Physically, we have to speculate some on Coleman. He ran an impressive 4.39 and 4.40 for 40-times at his April 15 Pro Day. He could not run at the NFL Combine with a foot injury. We still don’t know his agility times, etc. All he did was run the 40-yard at his Pro Day—which makes me nervous. If you can run the 40-time, why not the agility drills…are you hiding something? Coleman looks nimble and agile on tape, but our eyes can lie. All we can do is assume solid agility times for Coleman in our studies.

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Ameer Abdullah Most Compares Within Our System:

A poor man’s Jamaal Charles? A stronger version of Darren McFadden? A more gifted Felix Jones?

FYI, there was a time Jerome Harrison was dominating the NFL for a small stretch of games.

You know what is scary about this list and has to be considered: All the players here were/are great NFL- level athletes out of the box. Almost all the guys on this list have had their careers hindered, some dramatically, by injury. Smaller RBs do not tend to hold up well in today’s NFL. That has to be a pause point before you get too far excited with Coleman.

RB Last First College Yr H H W Speed Agility Power Hands Score Metric Metric Metric Metric 8.56 Coleman Tevin Indiana 2015 5 11.3 206 8.83 11.08 8.70 7.96 11.31 Charles Jamaal Texas 2008 5 11.0 200 13.11 9.60 4.14 6.85 10.12 Harrison Jerome Washington St 2006 5 9.2 201 7.01 11.77 7.23 8.46 9.70 McFadden Darren Arkansas 2008 6 1.2 211 13.44 9.75 4.56 6.54 6.39 Jones Felix Arkansas 2008 5 10.1 207 11.79 13.09 3.26 9.30 9.25 Best Jahvid California 2010 5 10.1 199 13.78 10.58 6.86 9.12 8.34 McKinnon Jerick Ga Southern 2014 5 8.7 209 9.06 9.89 13.00 4.05

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*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB. All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances. Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver. *RB-Re score = New/testing in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc. *RB-Ru score = New/testing in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed- agility along with various size measurables, etc. Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile. Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Because Coleman didn’t workout at the NFL Combine his draft stock dropped, and he projects to be taken in the 2nd or 3rd-round as of today, but I bet those draft projections jump up with his reported best 40-time of 4.30 at his Pro Day. He should be argued on the same level with Melvin Gordon—and they should both be 2nd-rounders at their sizes--Gordon won’t go 2nd-round (he’ll go 1st-round), but Coleman will.

If I were an NFL GM, it would take an odd set of circumstances for me to draft a RB in the 2nd-round…I just don’t see the value of them versus the other options available. In addition, I would be looking for a physically bigger RB who was a threat in the power, and speed, and passing game. I’m not sure Coleman

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is a massive power runner. He’s a great speed guy but suspect how he’ll deal with constant big hits in the NFL. If I can open up giant holes for him, then great…but if I can do that do I really need Coleman, or will any fast RB do?

Nothing against Coleman, but I cannot take a smaller RB in the 2nd-round.

NFL Outlook:

Coleman has the skills to walk right into the NFL and be the Rookie of the Year, if given a chance at a heavy workload. However, he may slide to a team that wants to ease him in as part of a backfield duo, and then maybe he’s less exciting. Whatever happens, down the road, he should be a capable NFL RB, but not sure how long he can hold up over time at his size.

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Signature______Date______4/20/2015

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