Re-imagining India's M&E sector
March 2018 2 Re-imagining India's M&E sector | FICCI-EY report 2018
Uday Shankar Chairman FICCI Media & Entertainment Committee
2017 has been an eventful year for the Indian Media & Entertainment industry. The macro- economic mood of the nation remained bearish for most part of the year, reflected in the economic pressures faced by industries across and media being no exception. We also saw strides towards several regulatory reforms, with GST finally becoming a reality to a near complete digitization of TV distribution. However, in an environment of volatility and dynamism, this industry has continued to grow at a rapid pace year-on-year. In the process it has also become a critical contributor to the economic and social narrative of the country. The sector today generates millions of jobs directly and indirectly, contributes to economic growth with a rate almost twice the GDP and provides an immeasurable ancillary contribution by serving a platform for the growth of several other industries. All the segments of the M&E sector are showing growth, consolidation and innovation led by digital, both on the consumer side and through the content supply chain. The transition to Foreword embracing digital in this industry has perhaps been the smoothest. The increasing ubiquity of camera, internet and the availability of cheap computing power in one’s handheld devices has democratized media consumption and production like never before. Digital has transformed the access to content and participation in media, and the consumers have shown affinity towards great content on newer screens. As I look ahead, the next few years are poised to be even more exciting. The number of users on internet in India is expected to cross 500 Mn this year. M&E can play an increasingly stronger role in informing, empowering and inspiring the nation. As many more businesses as well as the regulators take cognizance of this, the time is now to reimagine what the new consumer experience should be, reimagine the boundaries of creativity and content, reimagine business models and even reimagine regulation to foster this new landscape. The time is also to invest in creating the requisite skills and institutions to serve the demand of the new digital consumer. The future of M&E is getting built on 3 pillars – engineers, designers and storytellers – and it has the potential to usher in a growth paradigm that couldn’t have been imagined before. Through this report, we aim to capture some insights into this the exciting and fast growing world of Indian media and entertainment. FICCI recognises the valuable inputs provided by the members of the M&E sector and all the associated agencies to create this report. We also take this this opportunity to thank EY, our knowledge partner, who have devoted significant time and resources into the development of this report. We do hope you find this report useful. 3
Amitabh Bachchan Actor
The Media & Entertainment sector has always been the most prominent global brand ambassador for India. The creativity and knowledge of the nation, translated across television, film, print, radio and digital media creates a powerhouse of content which is unmatchable in the world. India produces the maximum number of hours of content globally, across 2,000 films, 800+ television channels, 250+ radio stations, 100,000+ newspaper and magazine editions and thousands of live events. The Indian M&E sector is in the midst of rapid change today. Reach is improving significantly, not only for traditional media like television, radio and print, but the digital revolution which is underway is enabling a move towards personalization of content and experience. More than ever before, Indians are consuming content of their choice, in the language of their choice, at a time and place of their choice. News and knowledge have truly been democratized. Foreword This trend will only increase the demand for content, and provide the Indian M&E sector the opportunity to grow internationally, as a provider of news and escapism to billions. India’s animation, VFX and post production facilities have moved up the value chain, and the world has recognized their potential as high quality service providers, with a cost advantage. This report by EY and FICCI captures these and many more trends, and showcases the important role the Indian M&E sector plays in development of the nation. I’m sure you will find it insightful. 4 Re-imagining India's M&E sector | FICCI-EY report 2018
Farokh Balsara Media & Entertainment Sector Leader Ernst & Young LLP
Foreword Ashish Pherwani India M&E Advisory Leader Ernst & Young LLP 5
Has India’s M&E sector reached it's digital tipping point?
Welcome to the 2018 edition of the FICCI-EY report on the Indian media and entertainment (M&E) sector. The Indian economy is growing and the M&E sector is a reflection of this. The year 2017 saw India recover from demonetisation only to face the new challenges and opportunities provided by the implementation of GST. However, the Indian economy continued on its growth trajectory and so did the M&E sector. Favourable demographics, a rise in consumer income and a huge demand for knowledge, escapism, sports and news aided the growth of the M&E sector in the country. The reach of television increased to 64% of India, and with distribution now largely digitized, this has brought in more addressability. Bucking international trends, the print and radio segments continued to grow, as well as build their digital presence. Indian films – both Hindi and regional - grew their international appeal with several doing well at the global box office. Increase in the demand for global content has resulted in growth of the animation, VFX and post production segment, where India has become known for its high quality and efficient capabilities. Digital subscription and online gaming are showing signs of exponential growth – albeit from a small base - on the back of rising per-capital GDP and falling data costs. The Indian M&E sector now finds itself at its digital tipping point. India is now the second largest smartphone market in the world, and more than half the country is expected to have access to affordable broadband by 2020 which could result in over 500 mn online video consumers. Rural and women audiences are expected to grow fastest, which will change the type and genre of content being consumed. The digital micro-payments ecosystem is also growing rapidly across both urban and rural markets. These changes will grow digital content consumption significantly, and this presents M&E companies, both foreign and domestic, with an exciting opportunity to develop businesses and cater to the new generation of Indian digital consumers. Through this report we aim to showcase this exciting and fast growing sector. We are certain you would find this report to be insightful. 6 Re-imagining India's M&E sector | FICCI-EY report 2018
M&E Sector Overview 08 M&E Sector 2017: Key trends 10 Indian economy and its impact on M&E 16 The global perspective on Indian M&E 20
Segmental trends 26 Television 28 Print 54 Filmed Entertainment 76 Digital media 104 Live events 132 Radio 144 Out Of Home media 150 Online Gaming 154 Animation and VFX 166 Music 182 Sports 192 7
M&A Activity 208 Impact of GST 218 Operating model 2020 232 Global M&E trends 242 About this report 252
Glossary 254
Acknowledgements 258
EY’s M&E leadership team 260
Contents 8 Re-imagining India's M&E sector | FICCI-EY report 2018
M&E Sector overview 9 10 Re-imagining India's M&E sector | FICCI-EY report 2018
M&E sector 2017: Key trends 11
The sector grew to INR1.5 trillion The Indian M&E sector reached INR1.5 trillion (USD 22.7 billion) in 2017, a growth of almost 13 percent over 2016. With its current trajectory, we expect it to cross INR2 trillion (USD 31 billion) by 2020, at a CAGR of 11.6 per cent.
CAGR Segment CY2016 CY2017 CY2018E CY2020E 2016 - 20
Television 594 660 734 862 9.8%
Print 296 303 331 369 5.7%
Filmed 122 156 166 192 11.9% entertainment
Digital media 92 119 151 224 24.9%
Animation and VFX 54 67 80 114 20.4%
Live events 56 65 77 109 18.0%
Online gaming 26 30 40 68 27.5%
Out Of Home media 32 34 37 43 7.7%
Radio 24 26 28 34 8.6%
Music 12 13 14 18 10.6%
Total 1,308 1,473 1,660 2,032 11.6%
All figures are gross of taxes (INR in billion) 12 Re-imagining India's M&E sector | FICCI-EY report 2018
M&E sector’s growth in 2017 was led by digital, film, gaming and events
Segmental growth in 2017 over 2016 13% Digital 29%
Film 27%
Animation and VFX 23%
Gaming 18%
Events 15%
TV 11%
OOH 8%
Music 7%
Radio 6%
Print 3%
M&E Sector Average
Growth was led by the digital segment, showing that Subscription growth outpaced Ad growth in advertising budgets were following the changing content 2017… consumption patterns of consumers. As India’s digital infrastructure matures, it has given a boost to gaming as a Industry tailwinds favourably impacted subscription segment, which witnessed significant growth in 2017, albeit revenues, including: from a small base. The film segment also led on the growth • Wider implementation of cable TV digitisation front, mainly due to the international revenues generated by Indian films, and that – along with India regaining its stature • Higher realisation from domestic and foreign box office as an efficient and high quality outsourcing destination – collections of films led to corresponding growth for the animation, VFX and • Increased adoption of subscription OTT platforms and post production business. The Events segment continued its strong run, supported by increased below-the-line • Increased in-app purchases in the gaming segment spends across tier II and III cities, growth in sports events, The above led to an almost 15 per cent growth in premium properties and activations. Television continued subscription revenues in 2017. Going forward, micro- its strong run, on the back of digitization of television payments, enabled through the UPI and BHIM app developed homes, and tentpole properties like the IPL and non-fiction by the National Payments Corporation of India, will further programming, particularly in regional languages. The local accelerate subscription revenues for entertainment content. media of print, OOH and radio – which do rely more on local advertising – were impacted by demonetization and the In stark contrast, advertising revenues witnessed growth of introduction of GST in India, but showed a smart recovery just under 10 per cent, due to several macro headwinds towards the end of the year. such as:
• Spill over effects of demonetisation into Q1 of CY2017
• Impact of regulations like RERA on ad spends of the real estate sector
• Ad spend slow-down for between three to seven months across different segments of the M&E sector in order to manage inventories due to the implementation of GST in July 2017 13
…however, advertising growth will Global audience adoption of high budget accelerate till 2020 Indian films driving faster growth Indian film industry witnessed a growth of 27 per cent due to Adverstising and subscription revenues a combination of high growth in overseas theatrical releases (particularly in China), growth in satellite rights values and domestic box office collections. The growth would be 18 per cent if global theatrical revenues are restated based on what 821 the Indian studios earned, and not at gross box office values. 702 While the overall growth in films is promising, it is not a 646 linear business, and depends heavily on the number and type of releases. In 2017, growth was narrow - it was due to select movies like Baahubali and Dangal driving growth in 920 665 761 both domestic and international markets. While the success of Baahubali may result in increased focus on high budget and regional movies in years to come, the CY2017 CY2018E CY2020E domestic box office collections need to support such higher investments, and our current screen density of less than Advertising Subscription 10,000 screens compares abysmally with developed media markets like the USA (40,393 screens for a third of our Numbers in INR billion (Gross of tax) population) and China (40,000 screens for a comparable Note: The above numbers exclude Animation, post production, population). While the success in International markets gaming, events and VFX industry revenues indicates to a promising future, the growth in overseas markets may be limited due to the limited release of foreign While the growth in the subscription market will continue in films in China due to regulations. the years to come, we expect that ad revenues will recover in 2018, and continue to grow faster than subscription revenues till 2020. Ad revenues are 51% of the total today, and could reach 53% of the total by 2020.
Digital Advertising led the overall Ad industry growth Growth in screens and internet broadband penetration, coupled with falling data rates led to more consumption of content and increased time spent on digital media. Advertisers shifted spends to the digital medium, which led to digital advertising now contributing 17 per cent of total advertising in 2017. The share of digital advertising is expected to grow to 22 per cent by 2020. This growth will make Digital the third largest segment of the Indian M&E sector by 2020, overtaking Filmed Entertainment.
Print advertising – better times ahead Print industry witnessed some degrowth in English language advertising and moderate growth in the Hindi and regional language advertising segments. This was compensated by growth in subscription revenues as print increased its reader base and, in some cases, cover prices. 2018 promises to be better, with growth expected at around 10 per cent, given that there are five state elections, as well as the run up to the Lok Sabha general elections in 2019. 14 Re-imagining India's M&E sector | FICCI-EY report 2018
Birth of the digital subscriber India increased its attractiveness as an Digital subscription made a strong impact in 2017, with a outsourcing hub growth of 50%. As per industry estimates, there are around The animation, post production and VFX segments are 2 million paid digital subscribers across application providers, expected to grow at a CAGR of 20 per cent till 2020, to and between 1 and 1.5 million customers who have moved reach INR114 billion, led by the growth expected in the entirely to digital media consumption. By 2020, we expect domestic film, TV and digital segments, as well as the there to be 4 million digital only consumers which, along with outsourcing by international studios on the back of increased millions of other tactical and mass customers will generate content creation for digital and TV, and more sequel-based subscription revenues of INR20 billion. The key reasons action and animation films. for higher adoption is availability of niche content, global content, increased OTT-only content, sports and falling data charges. The M&E sector grew faster than GDP The M&E industry continues to perform along with the Indian Online gaming industry at an inflection economy, which is a reflection of the growing disposable point income led by stable economic growth. Per capita GDP is growing at over 6 per cent since 20122, and this has led Digital infrastructure and payments are expected to grow the to increased spends by consumers. The overall increased Indian online gaming over 2x from INR30 billion in 2017 to need for escapism is enabling a situation where subscription INR68 billion by 2020. Growth will be driven by real money revenues are not being impacted by economic shifts and and social gaming on mobile devices. This estimate assumes slowdowns, as was seen in 2017. The quality of subscription status quo on the current set of permissions and regulatory revenues is high, and will provide a stable source of income environment. growth till 2020. Ad revenues will increase from 0.41 per cent of GDP in 2016 to 0.43 per cent of GDP in 2020.
Sector growth vs. nominal GDP growth
13.1% 12.6% 11.8%
10.9% 10.3% 9.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nominal GDP growth rate Advertising growth rate M&E sector growth rate
Source for GDP: Central Statistical Organisation
1. Central Statistical Organization\Haver Analytics via Oxford Economics
2. www.tradingeconomics.com 15
The new customer segmentation The proliferation of digital infrastructure will enable shifts in consumption patterns which will be based not as much on geographic, gender and age criteria, but more on the ability to pay.
Customer Segments in India by 2020
2017 2020
Digital only 1-1.5Mn 4Mn subscribers subscribers
Tactical digital consumers 6Mn 20Mn (Pay TV+ Pay OTT) subscribers subscribers
Mass consumers (Pay or Free 200+Mn 500+Mn TV + Free OTT) subscribers subscribers
We estimate that there are around 1 to 1.5 million digital The M&E sector continues to show great potential, and we only consumers in India today, who would not normally use expect it to grow on the back of India’s need for escapism, traditional media, and we expect this customer base to grow knowledge and social acceptance. Media and entertainment to around 4 million by 2020, and generate significant digital has become a necessity of life, and provides exciting subscription revenues for the M&E sector. opportunities for existing and new companies as it heads towards an INR2 trillion (USD31 billion) industry by 2020. Tactical digital consumers – those who consume both pay television and have at least one OTT subscription, and / or are driven by sachet pricing of content - would provide a high volume-lower value subscription base to content distributors. This segment could – on the back of digital and micro payment systems being rolled out in the country – reach as high as 20 million households by 2020. Mass consumers would form the largest segment of the M&E sector in 2020. These consumers would consume traditional media (either pay or free) and free OTT content, on the back of falling data charges and growing free Wi-Fi access. We expect these consumers to cross 500 million by 2020. Over time, a portion of these consumers could start paying for small bites of content using their UPI and BHIM mobile apps. 16 Re-imagining India's M&E sector | FICCI-EY report 2018
Indian economy and its impact on M&E 17
The Indian economy remains healthy
The calendar year 2017 was a great year for the Indian However, most multilateral agencies, including the economy. Retail inflation was the lowest in almost four International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian decades, the rupee strengthened against the US dollar for Development Bank (ADB), lowered India’s GDP forecast for the first time in seven years and several reforms such as the fiscal 2018 as a result of demonetization and initial hiccups Goods and Services Tax (GST), recapitalization of banks and around GST implementation. After enjoying the status of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code were implemented. the world’s fastest-growing major economy for a couple of Backed by the potential of the reforms to strengthen the years, India was overtaken by China in FY18. economy, Moody’s upgraded India’s bond ratings from Baa3 to Baa2 and changed the outlook from stable to positive.