Commission E2 Triennial Report (2018-2021)
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Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
NSF Current Newsletter Highlights Research and Education Efforts Supported by the National Science Foundation
March 2012 Each month, the NSF Current newsletter highlights research and education efforts supported by the National Science Foundation. If you would like to automatically receive notifications by e-mail or RSS when future editions of NSF Current are available, please use the links below: Subscribe to NSF Current by e-mail | What is RSS? | Print this page | Return to NSF Current Archive Robotic Surgery Systems Shipped to Medical Research Centers A set of seven identical advanced robotic-surgery systems produced with NSF support were shipped last month to major U.S. medical research laboratories, creating a network of systems using a common platform. The network is designed to make it easy for researchers to share software, replicate experiments and collaborate in other ways. Robotic surgery has the potential to enable new surgical procedures that are less invasive than existing techniques. The developers of the Raven II system made the decision to share it as the best way to move the field forward--though it meant giving competing laboratories tools that had taken them years to develop. "We decided to follow an open-source model, because if all of these labs have a common research platform for doing robotic surgery, the whole field will be able to advance more quickly," said Jacob Rosen, Students with components associate professor of computer engineering at the University of of the Raven II surgical California-Santa Cruz. Rosen and Blake Hannaford, director of the robotics systems. Credit: University of Washington Biorobotics Laboratory, led the team that Carolyn Lagattuta built the Raven system, initially with a U.S. -
COVID-19: Make It the Last Pandemic
COVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city of area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Report Design: Michelle Hopgood, Toronto, Canada Icon Illustrator: Janet McLeod Wortel Maps: Taylor Blake COVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic by The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness & Response 2 of 86 Contents Preface 4 Abbreviations 6 1. Introduction 8 2. The devastating reality of the COVID-19 pandemic 10 3. The Panel’s call for immediate actions to stop the COVID-19 pandemic 12 4. What happened, what we’ve learned and what needs to change 15 4.1 Before the pandemic — the failure to take preparation seriously 15 4.2 A virus moving faster than the surveillance and alert system 21 4.2.1 The first reported cases 22 4.2.2 The declaration of a public health emergency of international concern 24 4.2.3 Two worlds at different speeds 26 4.3 Early responses lacked urgency and effectiveness 28 4.3.1 Successful countries were proactive, unsuccessful ones denied and delayed 31 4.3.2 The crisis in supplies 33 4.3.3 Lessons to be learnt from the early response 36 4.4 The failure to sustain the response in the face of the crisis 38 4.4.1 National health systems under enormous stress 38 4.4.2 Jobs at risk 38 4.4.3 Vaccine nationalism 41 5. -
Effect of the Solar Wind Density on the Evolution of Normal and Inverse Coronal Mass Ejections S
A&A 632, A89 (2019) Astronomy https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201935894 & c ESO 2019 Astrophysics Effect of the solar wind density on the evolution of normal and inverse coronal mass ejections S. Hosteaux, E. Chané, and S. Poedts Centre for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics (CmPA), Celestijnenlaan 200B, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium e-mail: [email protected] Received 15 May 2019 / Accepted 11 September 2019 ABSTRACT Context. The evolution of magnetised coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their interaction with the background solar wind leading to deflection, deformation, and erosion is still largely unclear as there is very little observational data available. Even so, this evolution is very important for the geo-effectiveness of CMEs. Aims. We investigate the evolution of both normal and inverse CMEs ejected at different initial velocities, and observe the effect of the background wind density and their magnetic polarity on their evolution up to 1 AU. Methods. We performed 2.5D (axisymmetric) simulations by solving the magnetohydrodynamic equations on a radially stretched grid, employing a block-based adaptive mesh refinement scheme based on a density threshold to achieve high resolution following the evolution of the magnetic clouds and the leading bow shocks. All the simulations discussed in the present paper were performed using the same initial grid and numerical methods. Results. The polarity of the internal magnetic field of the CME has a substantial effect on its propagation velocity and on its defor- mation and erosion during its evolution towards Earth. We quantified the effects of the polarity of the internal magnetic field of the CMEs and of the density of the background solar wind on the arrival times of the shock front and the magnetic cloud. -
Relation Between Sunspots and Covid19 – a Proof for Panspermia
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 07 Issue: 11 | Nov 2020 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 RELATION BETWEEN SUNSPOTS AND COVID19 – A PROOF FOR PANSPERMIA Janani T1 1Department of Biotechnology, Kumaraguru College of Technology, Coimbatore, Tamilnadu, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract - The novel viral or the bacterial pandemics and epidemics are not new to this earth. Often these disease-causing pathogens are of unknown origin and often identified as an infection which is transmitted from other animals. They are frequently found as the mutated form of the original strain or completely a newly developed strain. The causes for this mutation are many which comprises of both natural and artificial sources. The time of occurrence of these pandemic and epidemic astonishingly coincides with the sun spot extremum (often minimum). It is observed that whenever there is a sun spot extremum there was a novel microbial pandemic or epidemic. The current COVID19 pandemic is also suggested to be due to such sunspot extremum as the sun cycle is currently at its sun spot minimum. This review aims at providing the facts of relation between sunspots and the novel corona virus pandemic and there by stating this occurrence as a proof for panspermia. Key Words: Pandemic, Epidemic, COVID19, Sunspot, Solar Cycle, Solar minimum, Panspermia 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 SUNSPOTS: Sunspots are the dark regions in the sun’s surface due to the concentration of magnetic field in that region. These regions are relatively colder to the other regions of the sun’s surface. Hotter region emits more light than the colder region hence these regions appear to be darker and called the spots of the sun. -
Predicting the Magnetic Vectors Within Coronal Mass Ejections Arriving at Earth: 2
Space Weather RESEARCH ARTICLE Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections 10.1002/2015SW001171 arriving at Earth: 1. Initial architecture Key Points: N. P.Savani1,2, A. Vourlidas1, A. Szabo2,M.L.Mays2,3, I. G. Richardson2,4, B. J. Thompson2, • First architectural design to predict A. Pulkkinen2,R.Evans5, and T. Nieves-Chinchilla2,3 a CME’s magnetic vectors (with eight events) 1 2 • Modified Bothmer-Schwenn CME Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute (GPHI), University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Maryland, USA, NASA 3 initiation rule to improve reliability Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA, Institute for Astrophysics and Computational Sciences (IACS), of chirality Catholic University of America, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, 4Department of Astronomy, University of • CME evolution seen by remote Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA, 5College of Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, Vancouver, USA sensing triangulation is important for forecasting Abstract The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is Correspondence to: predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth’s N. P. Savani, magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when the solar wind magnetic field has a southward [email protected] component. The most severe impacts are during the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) when the magnetosphere is both compressed and magnetically connected to the heliospheric environment. Citation: Unfortunately, forecasting magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections remain elusive. Here we report Savani, N. P., A. Vourlidas, A. Szabo, M.L.Mays,I.G.Richardson,B.J. how, by combining a statistically robust helicity rule for a CME’s solar origin with a simplified flux rope Thompson, A. -
Arxiv:2101.07771V4 [Stat.AP] 9 Jun 2021
Received Jan-19-2021; Revised Jun-02-2021; Accepted XX-XX-XXX DOI: xxx/xxxx SURVEY Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: A survey and discussion of interconnected effects Che-Castaldo, Judy P.*1 | Cousin, Rémi2 | Daryanto, Stefani3 | Deng, Grace4 | Feng, Mei-Ling E.1 | Gupta, Rajesh K.5 | Hong, Dezhi5 | McGranaghan, Ryan M.6 | Owolabi, Olukunle O.7 | Qu, Tianyi8 | Ren, Wei3 | Schafer, Toryn L. J.4 | Sharma, Ashutosh9,10 | Shen, Chaopeng9 | Sherman, Mila Getmansky8 | Sunter, Deborah A.7 | Tao, Bo3 | Wang, Lan11 | Matteson, David S.4 1Conservation & Science Department, Lincoln Park Zoo, Illinois, USA Abstract 2International Research Institute for Climate The electric power grid is a critical societal resource connecting multiple infrastruc- and Society, Earth Institute / Columbia University, New York, USA tural domains such as agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing. The electrical 3Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, grid as an infrastructure is shaped by human activity and public policy in terms of College of Agriculture, Food and Environment / University of Kentucky, demand and supply requirements. Further, the grid is subject to changes and stresses Kentucky, USA due to diverse factors including solar weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. The 4 Department of Statistics and Data Science, emerging interconnected and complex network dependencies make such interactions Cornell University, New York, USA 5Halicioglu Data Science Institute and increasingly dynamic, posing novel risks, and presenting new challenges to manage Department of Computer Science & the coupled human-natural system. This paper provides a survey of models and meth- Engineering, University of California, San ods that seek to explore the significant interconnected impact of the electric power Diego, California, USA 6Atmosphere Space Technology Research grid and interdependent domains. -
Cmes, Solar Wind and Sun-Earth Connections: Unresolved Issues
CMEs, solar wind and Sun-Earth connections: unresolved issues Rainer Schwenn Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany [email protected] In recent years, an unprecedented amount of high-quality data from various spaceprobes (Yohkoh, WIND, SOHO, ACE, TRACE, Ulysses) has been piled up that exhibit the enormous variety of CME properties and their effects on the whole heliosphere. Journals and books abound with new findings on this most exciting subject. However, major problems could still not be solved. In this Reporter Talk I will try to describe these unresolved issues in context with our present knowledge. My very personal Catalog of ignorance, Updated version (see SW8) IAGA Scientific Assembly in Toulouse, 18-29 July 2005 MPRS seminar on January 18, 2006 The definition of a CME "We define a coronal mass ejection (CME) to be an observable change in coronal structure that occurs on a time scale of a few minutes and several hours and involves the appearance (and outward motion, RS) of a new, discrete, bright, white-light feature in the coronagraph field of view." (Hundhausen et al., 1984, similar to the definition of "mass ejection events" by Munro et al., 1979). CME: coronal -------- mass ejection, not: coronal mass -------- ejection! In particular, a CME is NOT an Ejección de Masa Coronal (EMC), Ejectie de Maså Coronalå, Eiezione di Massa Coronale Éjection de Masse Coronale The community has chosen to keep the name “CME”, although the more precise term “solar mass ejection” appears to be more appropriate. An ICME is the interplanetry counterpart of a CME 1 1. -
Global Catastrophic Risks Survey
GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS SURVEY (2008) Technical Report 2008/1 Published by Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom At the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford (17‐20 July, 2008) an informal survey was circulated among participants, asking them to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. This report summarizes the main results. The median extinction risk estimates were: Risk At least 1 million At least 1 billion Human extinction dead dead Number killed by 25% 10% 5% molecular nanotech weapons. Total killed by 10% 5% 5% superintelligent AI. Total killed in all 98% 30% 4% wars (including civil wars). Number killed in 30% 10% 2% the single biggest engineered pandemic. Total killed in all 30% 10% 1% nuclear wars. Number killed in 5% 1% 0.5% the single biggest nanotech accident. Number killed in 60% 5% 0.05% the single biggest natural pandemic. Total killed in all 15% 1% 0.03% acts of nuclear terrorism. Overall risk of n/a n/a 19% extinction prior to 2100 These results should be taken with a grain of salt. Non‐responses have been omitted, although some might represent a statement of zero probability rather than no opinion. 1 There are likely to be many cognitive biases that affect the result, such as unpacking bias and the availability heuristic‒‐well as old‐fashioned optimism and pessimism. In appendix A the results are plotted with individual response distributions visible. Other Risks The list of risks was not intended to be inclusive of all the biggest risks. -
Solar Wind Properties and Geospace Impact of Coronal Mass Ejection-Driven Sheath Regions: Variation and Driver Dependence E
Solar Wind Properties and Geospace Impact of Coronal Mass Ejection-Driven Sheath Regions: Variation and Driver Dependence E. K. J. Kilpua, D. Fontaine, C. Moissard, M. Ala-lahti, E. Palmerio, E. Yordanova, S. Good, M. M. H. Kalliokoski, E. Lumme, A. Osmane, et al. To cite this version: E. K. J. Kilpua, D. Fontaine, C. Moissard, M. Ala-lahti, E. Palmerio, et al.. Solar Wind Properties and Geospace Impact of Coronal Mass Ejection-Driven Sheath Regions: Variation and Driver Dependence. Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2019, 17 (8), pp.1257-1280. 10.1029/2019SW002217. hal-03087107 HAL Id: hal-03087107 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03087107 Submitted on 23 Dec 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. RESEARCH ARTICLE Solar Wind Properties and Geospace Impact of Coronal 10.1029/2019SW002217 Mass Ejection-Driven Sheath Regions: Variation and Key Points: Driver Dependence • Variation of interplanetary properties and geoeffectiveness of CME-driven sheaths and their dependence on the E. K. J. Kilpua1 , D. Fontaine2 , C. Moissard2 , M. Ala-Lahti1 , E. Palmerio1 , ejecta properties are determined E. -
Ten Years of PAMELA in Space
Ten Years of PAMELA in Space The PAMELA collaboration O. Adriani(1)(2), G. C. Barbarino(3)(4), G. A. Bazilevskaya(5), R. Bellotti(6)(7), M. Boezio(8), E. A. Bogomolov(9), M. Bongi(1)(2), V. Bonvicini(8), S. Bottai(2), A. Bruno(6)(7), F. Cafagna(7), D. Campana(4), P. Carlson(10), M. Casolino(11)(12), G. Castellini(13), C. De Santis(11), V. Di Felice(11)(14), A. M. Galper(15), A. V. Karelin(15), S. V. Koldashov(15), S. Koldobskiy(15), S. Y. Krutkov(9), A. N. Kvashnin(5), A. Leonov(15), V. Malakhov(15), L. Marcelli(11), M. Martucci(11)(16), A. G. Mayorov(15), W. Menn(17), M. Mergè(11)(16), V. V. Mikhailov(15), E. Mocchiutti(8), A. Monaco(6)(7), R. Munini(8), N. Mori(2), G. Osteria(4), B. Panico(4), P. Papini(2), M. Pearce(10), P. Picozza(11)(16), M. Ricci(18), S. B. Ricciarini(2)(13), M. Simon(17), R. Sparvoli(11)(16), P. Spillantini(1)(2), Y. I. Stozhkov(5), A. Vacchi(8)(19), E. Vannuccini(1), G. Vasilyev(9), S. A. Voronov(15), Y. T. Yurkin(15), G. Zampa(8) and N. Zampa(8) (1) University of Florence, Department of Physics, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy (2) INFN, Sezione di Florence, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy (3) University of Naples “Federico II”, Department of Physics, I-80126 Naples, Italy (4) INFN, Sezione di Naples, I-80126 Naples, Italy (5) Lebedev Physical Institute, RU-119991 Moscow, Russia (6) University of Bari, I-70126 Bari, Italy (7) INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari, Italy (8) INFN, Sezione di Trieste, I-34149 Trieste, Italy (9) Ioffe Physical Technical Institute, RU-194021 St. -
Radio Spectroscopy of Stellar Flares: Magnetic Reconnection & CME
Solar and Stellar Flares and their Effects on Planets Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 320, 2015 c International Astronomical Union 2016 A.G. Kosovichev, S.L. Hawley & P. Heinzel, eds. doi:10.1017/S1743921316008644 Radio spectroscopy of stellar flares: magnetic reconnection & CME shocks in stellar coronae Jackie Villadsen1, Gregg Hallinan1 and Stephen Bourke1 1 Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology MC 249-17, 1200 E California Blvd, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA email: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Abstract. High-cadence spectroscopy of solar and stellar coherent radio bursts is a powerful diagnostic tool to study coronal conditions during magnetic reconnection in flares and to detect coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We present results from wide-bandwidth VLA observations of nearby active M dwarfs, including some observations with simultaneous VLBA imaging. We also discuss the Starburst program, which will make wide-bandwidth radio spectroscopic observations of nearby active flare stars for 20+ hours a day for multiple years, coming online in spring 2016 at the Owens Valley Radio Observatory. This program should vastly increase the diversity of observed stellar radio bursts and our understanding of their origins, and offers the potential to detect a population of CME-associated radio bursts. Keywords. stars: coronae, stars: flare, stars: individual (UV Ceti), stars: mass loss, Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs), Sun: radio radiation, radio continuum: stars 1. Introduction Many of the nearest habitable-zone Earths and super-Earths will be found around M dwarfs (Dressing & Charbonneau 2013). The magnetically active “youth” of M dwarfs lasts hundreds of millions to billions of years (West et al.