Irrigation in Central Asia Social, Economic and Environmental Considerations
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Europe and Central Asia Region Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development _________________________________________________ Irrigation in Central Asia Social, Economic and Environmental Considerations ______________ Julia Bucknall Irina Klytchnikova Julian Lampietti Mark Lundell Monica Scatasta Mike Thurman The World Bank, February 2003 www.worldbank.org/eca/environment The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Cover photo by: Sapar Ospanov. Dilapidated irrigation canal in Kazakhstan. Printed on 30% post consumer recycled paper CONTENTS Preface Acronyms Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................i CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................1 1.1 OBJECTIVES......................................................................................................................1 1.2 DATA SOURCES AND METHODS .......................................................................................1 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT.......................................................................................2 CHAPTER II. THE IMPORTANCE OF IRRIGATION IN CENTRAL ASIA...................3 2.1 DEPENDENCE ON IRRIGATION...........................................................................................3 2.2 FARM INCOMES ................................................................................................................4 2.3 INSTITUTIONS FOR O&M..................................................................................................4 2.4 THE DETERIORATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE .....................................................................5 2.4.1 Maintenance............................................................................................................ 5 2.4.2 Water Distribution and Delivery............................................................................. 6 2.5 THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF IRRIGATION...............................................................7 2.5.1 Ecosystem and Soil Quality Damage ...................................................................... 7 2.5.2 Salinization.............................................................................................................. 8 2.5.3 Waterlogging......................................................................................................... 10 2.6 COPING WITH THE DEGRADATION OF I&D SYSTEMS .....................................................12 2.6.1 Land Retirement .................................................................................................... 12 2.6.2 Adaptations in Agricultural Production................................................................ 12 2.6.3 Looking for Other Work ........................................................................................ 14 2.7 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................16 CHAPTER III: WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IRRIGATION AND POVERTY? .................................................................................................................................17 3.1 WHERE ARE THE POOR IN CENTRAL ASIA?....................................................................17 3.2 WHO ARE THE RURAL POOR? ........................................................................................19 3.3 HOW IS ACCESS TO IRRIGATION RELATED TO POVERTY? ..............................................20 3.3.1 Perceptions of I&D and Poverty........................................................................... 20 3.3.2 Quantitative Analysis ............................................................................................ 21 3.4 WHAT HAPPENS AS LAND CEASES TO BE IRRIGATED? ..................................................24 CHAPTER IV. IS IRRIGATION ECONOMICALLY VIABLE?.......................................27 4.1 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................27 4.2 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR UZBEKISTAN AND TAJIKISTAN .............................................27 4.2.1 The Importance of Pumped Irrigation .................................................................. 27 4.2.2 Methodology.......................................................................................................... 28 4.2.3 Results of the Economic Analysis.......................................................................... 28 4.2.4 Accounting for the Costs of Rehabilitation of Off-Farm Infrastructure ............... 30 4.3 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC .......................................................32 4.3.1 Methodology.......................................................................................................... 33 4.3.2 Results ................................................................................................................... 33 4.4 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................35 CHAPTER V. INCLUDING ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES.............................37 5.1 THE PROJECT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ..............................................................................37 5.2 ESTIMATING THE ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES......................................................38 5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS ........................................................................................39 A. What If Soil Salinity Downstream is More Reactive to Water Salinity?....................... 39 B. What If We Consider That Ceasing Irrigation Upstream Makes More Water Available Downstream? ........................................................................................................................ 40 C. What If We Consider Both Increased Soil Salinity Responses And Increased Water Availability? .......................................................................................................................... 41 5.4 WHAT SHOULD BE DONE WHEN THE NPV IS NEGATIVE?..............................................41 5.5 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................44 CHAPTER VI. CONCLUSIONS OF THE REPORT...........................................................46 ANNEXES 1. Bibliography 2. Map 3. Poverty and Irrigation: Data Tables and Recommendations for Future Data Collection 4. Economic and Financial Analysis of Irrigation Schemes: Methodology and Data Tables 5. Considering the Environmental Externalities: Methodology and Data Tables Preface The team consists of Julia Bucknall, Irina Klytchnikova, Julian Lampietti, Mark Lundell, Monica Scatasta, and Mike Thurman (in alphabetical order). Bekzod Shamsiev and Anatoly Krutov provided valuable input concerning land salinization, aided in the study’s formulation, and made a great deal of data available to the team. Field teams of local experts in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Kazakhstan provided valuable insight concerning the perceptions of stakeholders. The extended team, which has provided significant comments, advice, and consultations, consists of Masood Ahmad, Brian Kropp, Ton Laennarts, Anil Markandya, Stan Peabody, TV Sampath, Orunbek Shamkanov, and Joop Stoutjesdijk. This study has also drawn extensively on the analytical work of and discussions with Shamsiya Ibragimova from the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic. The Bank’s sectoral management team for the Europe and Central Asia region, particularly Joseph Goldberg and Laura Tuck, conceived of this study and guided the team. Acronyms FSK Former state and collective farm (kolkhoz and sovkhoz) GBAO Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (Tajikistan) I&D Irrigation and Drainage NPV Net Present Value O&M Operation and Maintenance PPP Purchasing Power Parity RESP Rural Enterprise Support Project, Uzbekistan RRS Rayons Under Republican Subordination (Tajikistan) WUA Water Users’ Association WEMP Water and Environmental Management Project Executive Summary Why Is This Study Necessary? The Central Asian countries in the Aral Sea Basin―Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan―have some of the largest irrigation schemes in the world. Some 22 million people depend directly or indirectly on irrigated agriculture in these countries. Twenty to forty percent of the GDP of these countries is derived from agriculture, almost all of which is irrigated. Entire communities of hundreds of thousands of people came into being solely because of irrigation development and settlement schemes. Without irrigation, much of the land would revert to desert scrub. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, both government budgets and farm incomes have fallen dramatically, water management institutions have weakened, and infrastructure maintenance has in many places come to a standstill. Irrigation and drainage (I&D) infrastructure is beginning to fall apart. Canals are silted up or damaged, gates broken or non-existent, and pumps held together by improvised repairs and parts cannibalized from other machinery. Across vast areas, water supply has become erratic, and land salinized and waterlogged. Farmers cannot