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Full Business Case for the Tram Completion Project

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Full Business Case for the Tram Completion Project Report February 2019 Edinburgh Tram: Full Business Case for the Tram Completion Project City of Edinburgh Council Our ref: 23277602 Client ref: 62-060031 PO2155886 Report February 2019 Edinburgh Tram: Full Business Case for the Tram Completion Project Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer City of Edinburgh Council 67 Albion Street Waverley Court Leeds LS1 5AA 4 East Market Street Edinburgh EH8 8BG +44 113 389 6400 Client ref: 62-060031 PO2155886 www.steergroup.com Our ref: 23277602 Steer has prepared this material for City of Edinburgh Council. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Edinburgh Tram: Full Business Case for the Tram Completion Project | Report Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 Edinburgh Tram .................................................................................................................. 1 Purpose of this Report ........................................................................................................ 1 2 Project Description & Estimated Costs ....................................................................... 2 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 2 Description of the Project .................................................................................................. 2 Route Consultation and Alignment Design ........................................................................ 4 Tram Service Pattern and Journey Time ............................................................................ 7 Tram Vehicle Requirement ................................................................................................. 9 Capital Costs ..................................................................................................................... 10 Operating & Maintenance Costs ...................................................................................... 10 Lifecycle Costs .................................................................................................................. 11 Bus Network Recast .......................................................................................................... 11 3 Forecasting Approach .............................................................................................. 16 Overview of Forecasting Approach .................................................................................. 16 Base Year Model Development, Calibration and Validation ............................................ 17 Forecasting Parameters .................................................................................................... 20 Forecasting of Future Years .............................................................................................. 23 Future Year Reference Case – Demand Assumptions ...................................................... 23 Future Year Reference Case – Network (Supply) Assumptions ....................................... 26 Policy Context for the Development of Tram – City Centre ............................................. 27 & Waterfront .................................................................................................................... 27 Forecasting of Public Transport Benefits (with Tram) ...................................................... 30 Forecasting of Highway Impacts....................................................................................... 30 4 Demand, Revenue & Benefit Forecasts .................................................................... 33 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 33 Annualisation .................................................................................................................... 33 Tram Completion Project Demand Forecasts .................................................................. 34 Edinburgh Tram Peak Line Flows ...................................................................................... 36 5 Economic Appraisal ................................................................................................. 38 February 2019 Edinburgh Tram: Full Business Case for the Tram Completion Project | Report Overview ........................................................................................................................... 38 Appraisal Assumptions ..................................................................................................... 38 Key Inputs into Economic Appraisal ................................................................................. 39 Capital Costs ..................................................................................................................... 40 Lifecycle and Operating Costs .......................................................................................... 41 Economic Appraisal Results .............................................................................................. 42 Sensitivity Testing ............................................................................................................. 43 6 Outline STAG Assessment ........................................................................................ 45 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 45 Policy Context & Performance against Planning Objectives ............................................ 45 Environment ..................................................................................................................... 48 Accidents and Security ..................................................................................................... 48 Economy - Transport Economic Efficiency ....................................................................... 49 Economy - Wider Economic Benefits ............................................................................... 49 Economy - Economic Activity and Locational Impacts ..................................................... 51 Integration ........................................................................................................................ 53 Accessibility and Social Inclusion ...................................................................................... 53 7 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 54 February 2019 Edinburgh Tram: Full Business Case for the Tram Completion Project | Report Figures Figure 2-1: Phase 1 of Edinburgh Tram and Tram Completion Project ........................................ 3 Figure 2-2: Leith Walk- Option 3b Foot of the Walk to Springfield Street ................................... 6 Figure 2-3: Leith Walk- Option 3b Smiths Place to Pilrig Street ................................................... 6 Figure 2-4: Tram Service Pattern- 2023 Opening Year ................................................................. 8 Figure 2-5: Tram Service Pattern- 2032 Second Forecast Year .................................................... 8 Figure 2-6 Current Bus Route Map ............................................................................................. 12 Figure 2-7 Current Bus Services serving the Project Corridor .................................................... 13 Figure 2-8 Bus Service Frequencies on Project under Bus Recast Scenarios.............................. 14 Figure 3-1: Policy Context for the Development of Tram – City Centre & Waterfront .............. 27 Figure 3-2 Proposed 20mph Zones (Tram Route shown as dashed line) ................................... 29 Figure 4-1 Edinburgh Tram Year on Year Annual Demand ......................................................... 35 Figure 4-2: 2022 Peak Eastbound Boards, Alights, Loading and Capacity (1 hour) .................... 36 Figure 4-3: 2022 Peak Westbound Boards, Alights, Loading and Capacity (1 hour) .................. 37 Figure 4-4: 2032 Peak Eastbound Boards, Alights, Loading and Capacity (1 hour) .................... 37 Figure 4-5: 2032 Peak Westbound Boards, Alights, Loading and Capacity (1 hour) .................. 37 Figure 5-1 Undiscounted Tram Costs over 60-year Appraisal Period (Newhaven) .................... 41 Figure 6-1 Spatial Strategy summary adopted Local Development Plan (November 2016) ...... 46 Figure 6-2 Index of Deprivation (from Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Interactive Map) .................................................................................................................................................... 52 February 2019 Edinburgh Tram: Full Business Case for the Tram Completion Project | Report Tables Table 2.1 Route Characteristics ...................................................................................................
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