Northeast U.S. Hurricane Risk
Category at 8 12 Northeast Landfall 7 13 Category 1 6 9 3 Category 2 2 Category 3 Since 1900, 14 hurricanes have made landfall in the 4 northeast, at Category 3 1 Unnamed (1903) 5 2 Unnamed (1924) 1 Great New England Hurricane of 1938 3 Unnamed (1934) Most powerful Northeast hurricane of the 20th century 4 Great New England (1938) Storms that reach the 5 Great Atlantic (1944) Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 northeast are commonly Carol (1954) 10 First use of aircraft reconnaissance 6 14 characterized by rapid 7 Edna (1954) Hurricane Carol, 1954 forward movement, high 8 Donna (1960) Prompted formation of National Hurricane winds, and coastal flooding 9 Gerde (1969) Center 10 Agnes (1972) Hurricane Edna, 1954 11 Belle (1976) Followed Hurricane Carol by 10 days 12 Gloria (1985) 13 Bob (1991) Hurricane Donna, 1960 Boston records 145 mph wind gust 14 Sandy (2012) Hurricane Gloria, 1985 1.5 million New Yorkers lose power
11 Hurricane Bob, 1991 Second-costliest hurricane at the time $ $ In coastal Hurricane Sandy, 2012 counties of Largest hurricane ever recorded: 1,100 miles wide $ $$ the northeast, $$$ USD 5.3 $$ trillion of insured Note that hurricanes that reach the Northeast are often in the process of extratropical transition; exposure is at risk some are no longer tropical at the time of landfall, 5 but can maintain hurricane-strength winds. WHAT CAN HAPPEN NEXT TIME?
Boston Albany Syracuse Buffalo Providence Hartford $ 0 25 50 100 New York City Miles $ Loss Philadelphia USD Millions The large storm, with a The storm’s fast forward Storm surge causes Sustained winds of up to radius of maximum winds speed (56 mph) results in a flooding in coastal areas of 110 mph (borderline < $0.5 Atlantic City (Rmax) of 50 miles, affects highly asymmetrical wind New Jersey and southern Cat 2/Cat 3) cause $0.5 to $1 11 states. Total insured field, with the strongest Long Island, NY. significant damage to value within the affected winds extending further to roofs, windows, and siding. $1 to $10 footprint is USD 920 billion. the right of the track. $10 to $50 > $50 This scenario results in total insured losses of USD 20.7 billion, which corresponds to roughly a 1% exceedance probability for the Northeast.