Report on Public Opinion

PROJECT ON BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD

Third Quarterly Report on Public Opinion

July to September 2008

Principal Investigator: Prof. Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani

Contributor

Muhammad Zubair Khan Research Associate

INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD

Report on Public Opinion

Third Quarterly Report on Public Opinion

July to September 2008

Department of Politics and International Relations International Islamic University Islamabad

2 BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD

Report on Public Opinion

Third Quarterly Report 2008

Reports for the period July to September 2008

Table of contents

Reports for the month of July

Week-1 July 08, 2008 04 Week-2 July 15, 2008 67 Week-3 July 22, 2008 129 Week-4 July 29, 2008 167

Reports for the month of August

Week-1 August 05, 2008 203 Week-2 August 12, 2008 241 Week-3 August 19, 2008 294 Week-4 August 26, 2008 326

Reports for the month of September

Week-1 September 02, 2008 362 Week-2 September 16, 2008 393 Week-3 September 23, 2008 426

Sources 475

3 Business and Politics in The Muslim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report June 16 – July 06, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: July 08, 2008 Introduction and Brief Commentary Summary Middle East Right of Return Not Negotiable, Say Palestinians Israelis Wanted Shalit as Part of Calm Agreement East Europe Many Balkan Residents Displeased With Road Conditions Russians Convinced of Global Warming West Europe Turks Believe AKP Should Not Be Banned Britain Divided Over Identity Cards Britons Disappointed with Brown’s Government North America About One in Four Voters Are “Swing Voters” Americans Worry McCain Would Be Too Similar to Bush More See America's Loss of Global Respect as Major Problem Americans Oppose Income Redistribution to Fix Economy Confidence in U.S. Banks Down Sharply East Asia Inflation Grips Indonesians, Worries Reach Three-Year High Indonesians Champion Religious Freedom West Asia Pakistanis Urge for Dialogue with Enemies Africa Corruption is the Norm, Say South Africans Few South Africans Welcome Zimbabwe Refugees

4 Global Polls Most Publics--including Americans--Oppose Taking Sides in Israeli-Palestinian Conflict World Publics Reject Torture In More Religious Countries, Lower Suicide Rates Young Arabs Poised to Maximize Their Potential

Introduction and Brief Commentary

This report consists of 21 surveys. Sixteen of these surveys are of national significance while five are of global or regional importance.

Political issues

The frustration and the lack of confidence in leaders among Israelis and Palestinians are persistent for years. Several polls in previous months have shown this trend and the same is again visible in Israeli public demands for including Shalit release in the Calm Agreement and Palestinians desires for the right to return. International poll by worldpublicopinion.org show that publics in 19 countries want a just solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and believe it is wrong for any country to take side of any party in the conflict. This is especially true of Americans who want their country to play its role neutrally.

Similar to poor confidence in leadership situation in Middle East poor ratings of British Prime Minister Brown and U.S. President Bush also show the lack of confidence in leadership of the two powers.

Contrary to the above AKP is enjoying public backing in Turkey for almost seven years. The Turks are against the possible banning of AKP being alleged for its religious role and potential threat to secularism in Turkey.

TFT survey of Pakistan shows that a majority of three fourth Pakistanis believe country is going in the wrong direction. PPP is losing its support while PMLN is soaring up. Favorable opinion of Nawaz Sharif has risen to 86 per cent while opinion of President Musharaf is no better then President Bush.

Pakistanis are supportive of the policy of dialogue with Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters instead of launching military operation. The anti-American sentiment is prevailing in the country. A reasonable majority has negative opinion of U.S. and believes it to be threat and make it responsible for security situation in the country.

5 On the issue of torture a 19 country survey shows that public overwhelmingly rejects the use of torture even against the criminals. Only four countries: India, Nigeria, Turkey and Thailand lean towards an exception for terrorists.

Pew survey finds that more than seven in ten Americans feel that U.S. image has deteriorated and it is less respected today then in the past. For the first time 56 per cent of them believe it to be a major problem.

In the U.S. Presidential election Obama is having a slight edge over McCain. About half of Americans are concerned that McCain would be similar to Bush. Though few months to go, Gallup finds that a higher proportion of voters i.e. 23 per cent may be swing voters in the coming election. (Higher then previous election) This include those 6 per cent who do not have any preference between Obama and McCain and can go either way and a 17 per cent of those who currently support either McCain or Obama but say they could change their minds between now and Election Day.

Economic issues

Poor economic perceptions are evident in U.S, Pakistan, and Indonesia. Since earlier this year Americans have rated the country economy as poor and the perception that the economy is on decline has aggravated. Gallup last week poll shows that the confidence in U.S. bank has also declined to 32% which is quite close to decade’s lowest level of 30%.

When given options Americans rejected the idea of re-distributing wealth to improve economy and favored for over all measures to help regain its strength.

Respondents in Pakistan and Indonesia express their miseries in securing food in their countries badly hit by inflation. This is especially true of Pakistan where majority is facing food crisis. Under similar circumstances Zimbabweans refugees are heading towards South Africa where they are not welcomed by majority of South Africans.

Social issues

Roads and infrastructure is a prerequisite for socio-economic development. Majorities in Balkan states show their dissatisfaction with the road condition in their locality. Only in Croatia a majority of 63 % is satisfied with the roads condition. The situation is worse in Montenegro and Kosovo.

Like many other nations Russians are also worried about global warming. A two third majority of Russians believe that the phenomenon is happening.

Corruption has been a widespread problem across the world especially in the developing world. Almost 9 in 10 South African see corruption in the higher levels of their

6 government and want to remove it from their system. But now that it has become so prevalent for over years it has almost become a ‘norm’ a way of life.

Tracking data of Gallup polls (2005 & 2006) show that there is an inverse relationship between religiosity and suicide rate. The countries where people are more religious, the suicide rate is low and it is high where people are more secular.

Summary

Middle East

Right of Return Not Negotiable, Say Palestinians

The vast majority of people in the West Bank and Gaza would reject giving up the so-called right of return, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion. 89.8 per cent of respondents are not willing to compromise the right to re-occupy their land in Israel in exchange for the creation of a Palestinian state and a peace agreement. July 01, 2008

Israelis Wanted Shalit as Part of Calm Agreement

Adults in Israel have second thoughts about the recent agreement their government reached with Hamas, according to a poll by the Dahaf Institute published in Yediot Ahronot. 78 per cent of respondents believe the deal should have been conditioned on the release of Gilad Shalit. June 26, 2008

East Europe

Many Balkan Residents Displeased With Road Conditions

Gallup USA poll finds that more than half of Balkan residents are dissatisfied with the road conditions in their areas. The highest level of satisfaction is in Croatia and the highest dissatisfaction is in Montenegro.

June 27, 2008

Russians Convinced of Global Warming

The majority of people in Russia think global warming is a reality, according to a poll by the Public Opinion Foundation. 67 per cent of respondents believe the phenomenon is happening. June 27, 2008

7 West Europe

Turks Believe AKP Should Not Be Banned

The majority of people in Turkey would reject a ban on the country’s largest and ruling party, according to a poll by A&G Research. 53 per cent of respondents would oppose a potential court ruling dismantling the Justice and Development Party (AKP) for its alleged anti-secular activities. July 02, 2008

Britain Divided Over Identity Cards

Adults in Britain are split over the introduction of high-end identity cards by the government, according to a poll by YouGov published in The Economist. 48 per cent of respondents think ID cards and biometric information are a good idea, while 45 per cent believe the plan is an invasion of privacy. July 02, 2008

Britons Disappointed with Brown’s Government

The vast majority of people in Britain remain critical of the way Gordon Brown’s administration is handling its duties, according to a poll by YouGov. 78 per cent of respondents think the prime minister is doing badly in office, unchanged since May. June 20, 2008

North America

About One in Four Voters Are “Swing Voters”

According to Gallup survey, 23% of likely voters can be considered "swing voters" -- including 6% who do not have a preference between Barack Obama and John McCain for president, and 17% who currently support either McCain or Obama but say they could change their minds between now and Election Day.

June 30, 2008

Americans Worry McCain Would Be Too Similar to Bush

A recent USA Today poll finds about two in three Americans concerned that John McCain would pursue policies as president that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued. Nearly half -- 49% -- say they are "very concerned" about this.

July 01, 2008

More See America's Loss of Global Respect as Major Problem

8 More Americans now say that the United States is less respected in the world than it has been in the past, and a growing proportion views this as a major problem for the country. More than seven-in-ten Americans (71%) say that the United States is less respected by other countries these days, up from 65% in August 2006.

June 16, 2008

Americans Oppose Income Redistribution to Fix Economy

When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today's consumer, Americans overwhelmingly -- by 84% to 13% -- prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans.

June 27, 2008

Confidence in U.S. Banks Down Sharply

The percentage of Americans saying they have a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in U.S. banks has fallen to 32% -- down nine percentage points from June 2007 and 17 percentage points from June 2006 -- matching the 32% of March 1991 and near the three-decade low of 30% in October 1991.

June 23, 2008

East Asia

Inflation Grips Indonesians, Worries Reach Three-Year High

Rising prices were already straining many Indonesians' budgets before a massive fuel price hike last month sent protesters to the streets and inflation soaring into the double digits. A record percentage reported in March that their standard of living -- all the things they can buy and do -- is getting worse.

June 26, 2008

Indonesians Champion Religious Freedom

The Indonesian government's decision last week to restrict members of a minority Muslim sect from practicing their faith seems to be at odds with the ideals of its residents, who overwhelmingly support the right for people to observe any religion and practice its teachings and beliefs.

June 20, 2008

9 West Asia

Pakistanis Urge for Dialogue with Enemies

A terrorfreetomorrow poll finds that Pakistanis are supportive of dialogue with Taliban and Al-Qaeda unlike U.S policy of using power while U.S image is still negative. Moreover PMLN enjoys the highest level of support among the political parties today

June 28, 2008

Africa

Corruption is the Norm, Say South Africans

The vast majority of people in South Africa think corruption is widespread in the country, according to a poll by TNS Research Surveys. 87 per cent of respondents say corruption has become a way of life. June 30, 2008

Few South Africans Welcome Zimbabwe Refugees

Few people in South Africa think the government should allow refugees fleeing neighbouring Zimbabwe to stay in the country, according to a poll by TNS Research Surveys. Only 29 per cent of respondents agree with the idea. July 05, 2008

Global Polls

Most Publics--including Americans--Oppose Taking Sides in Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 18 countries finds that in 14 of them people mostly say their government should not take sides in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Just three countries favor taking the Palestinian side (Egypt, Iran, and Turkey) and one is divided (India). No country favors taking Israel's side, including the United States, where 71 percent favor taking neither side.

July 01, 2008

World Publics Reject Torture

A WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 19 nations finds that in 14 of them most people favor an unequivocal rule against torture, even in the case of terrorists who have information that could save innocent lives. Four nations: India (59%), Nigeria (54%), and Turkey (51%), and a plurality in Thailand (44%) lean toward favoring an exception in the case of terrorists.

10 June 24, 2008

In More Religious Countries, Lower Suicide Rates

Gallup Polls from 2005 and 2006 show that countries that are more religious tend to have lower suicide rates.

July 03, 2008

Young Arabs Poised to Maximize Their Potential

Gallup Poll findings from 11 predominantly Arab countries show that despite challenging economic conditions, young people have great hopes of a better future and are poised to contribute to their communities. But just 23% say now is a good time to find a job in their communities

June 17, 2008

Middle East

Right of Return Not Negotiable, Say Palestinians

July 01, 2008

The vast majority of people in the West Bank and Gaza would reject giving up the so- called right of return, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion. 89.8 per cent of respondents are not willing to compromise the right to re-occupy their land in Israel in exchange for the creation of a Palestinian state and a peace agreement.

The former British mandate of Palestine was instituted at the end of World War I, to oversee a territory in the Middle East that formerly belonged to the Ottoman Empire. After the end of World War II and the Nazi holocaust, the Zionist movement succeeded in establishing an internationally recognized homeland. In November 1947, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a resolution calling for the formation of a Jewish state.

In 1948, the British government withdrew from the mandate and the state of Israel was created in roughly 15,000 square kilometres of the mandate’s land, with the remaining areas split under the control of Egypt and Transjordan. Since then, the region has seen constant disagreement between Israel and the Palestinians, represented for decades by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Wars broke out in the region in the second half of the 20th Century, involving Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt.

11 of thousands of refugees from the war and their descendants still live in shantytown camps run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), next to Gaza cities and towns.

On Jun. 24, French president Nicolas Sarkozy addressed Israeli lawmakers and urged them to consider the possibility of granting the right of return to the Palestinians, saying that there would be "no peace without a solution to the problem of the Palestinian refugees," and adding, "We must tell friends the truth, and the truth is that Israel’s security can never be assured unless an independent, modern, democratic and viable Palestinian state is established finally beside it."

Polling Data

Do you believe that the Palestinians should be obliged to waive their right of home return in exchange for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the conclusion of a peace agreement with Israel?

Yes 6.8%

No 89.8%

Don’t know 3.3%

Source: Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,220 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from May 25 to May 31, 2008. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.

Israelis Wanted Shalit as Part of Calm Agreement

June 26, 2008

On Jun. 28, 2006, Israel launched an operation in the Palestinian Territories in response to a joint raid carried out by Palestinian militants on a military post outside of the Gaza Strip, in which two Israeli soldiers were killed, and one more, Shalit, was captured. Shalit remains captive to this day. For months, Hamas has stated that Shalit will only be freed in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

12 West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

The Islamic Jihad organization launched Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza almost daily since Hamas took control of the territory. Israel holds Hamas responsible for the attacks for allowing the Islamic Jihad and other groups to act against Israel. In January, Israel completely sealed off its borders with the Gaza Strip and launched military operations in Gaza.

Last month, Israeli and Palestinian delegates began to negotiate a ceasefire in Egypt. On Jun. 17, Egypt announced that a calm agreement had been reached between Israel and Hamas. The deal took effect on Jun. 19.

On Jun. 19, former Israeli prime minister and Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the decision, saying, "I can understand the disappointment Gilad Shalit’s family must feel. I wouldn’t have agreed to this make-believe ceasefire, but since the government obviously did, one has to wonder why it didn’t prerequisite his release. It’s inconceivable."

Polling Data

Should the calm agreement with Hamas have been conditioned on the release of Gilad Shalit?

Yes 78%

No 15%

No reply 7%

Source: Dahaf Institute / Yediot Ahronot Methodology: Interviews with 500 Israeli adults, conducted on Jun. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

East Europe

June 27, 2008

Many Balkan Residents Displeased With Road Conditions

A median of 53% are dissatisfied with the roads where they live

Earlier this month the World Bank committed $20 million to improve infrastructure in Albania, focusing on secondary and local roads improvement in rural areas. Gallup Polls throughout the Balkan region show that many citizens are dissatisfied with their local roads and highways.

According to a World Bank press release, the roads project in Albania will "improve access to essential services and economic markets, especially in rural areas, by improving the condition, management, and financing of regional and local roads in the country."

Albanians express less dissatisfaction with their roads and highways than do other residents in many countries in the Balkan region. Only Croatians express less dissatisfaction than Albanians do. Respondents from the two poorest areas in the Balkans in terms of GDP per capita, Montenegro and Kosovo, are the most likely in the region to say they are dissatisfied with their roads and highways.

14 Residents of the Balkans are not alone in their dissatisfaction with their roads and highways; many residents of neighboring Central European countries are dissatisfied as well. In 5 of 11 countries in this region, at least half of respondents say they are dissatisfied with the roads and highways where they live. Notable exceptions in this region are in Switzerland, Austria, and Germany, where fewer than one in five say they are dissatisfied with the roads in their local areas.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 834 adults in Montenegro, aged 15 and older, conducted in December 2006 and January 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults in Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland and 1,556 adults in Serbia, aged 15 and older, conducted throughout 2006 and 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 2,002 adults in Bosnia and Herzegovina, aged 15 and older, conducted throughout 2006 and 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Russians Convinced of Global Warming

June 27, 2008

The majority of people in Russia think global warming is a reality, according to a poll by the Public Opinion Foundation. 67 per cent of respondents believe the phenomenon is happening.

The term global warming refers to an increase of the Earth’s average temperature. Some theories say that climate change might be the result of human-generated carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In 2007, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report which states that global warming has been "very likely"—or 90 per cent certain—caused by humans burning fossil fuels.

In 1998, several countries agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, a proposed amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The agreement commits nations to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Russia ratified the protocol in 2002, during the first term of Russian president Vladimir Putin.

On Jun. 19, Russian first deputy emergencies minister Ruslan Tsalikov told members of the legislature that global warming could cause devastation in northern Russia by 2030 due to melting permafrost, adding, "If the annual temperature rises by one or two degrees, the permafrost could decrease 50 per cent. (...) The risk of flooding would also double."

Polling Data

Do you believe global warming is happening?

Yes 67%

No 15%

Hard to answer 18%

Source: Public Opinion Foundation Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,500 Russian adults, conducted on Jun. 14 and Jun. 15, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

16 West Europe

Turks Believe AKP Should Not Be Banned

July 02, 2008

Turkish voters renewed the Great National Assembly in July 2007. Final results gave the AKP 46.6 per cent of the vote and 341 seats in the legislature. Parties require at least 10 per cent of the vote to earn seats under the country’s proportional representation system. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a member of the AKP, has served as prime minister since March 2003.

In March, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, Turkey’s chief prosecutor of the Court of Appeals, filed a lawsuit in the country’s Constitution Court demanding the closure of the AKP for allegedly jeopardizing Turkey’s secularist nature by trying to implement Islamic rule. The case was brought to the Court after lawmakers approved a constitutional amendment to lift a ban on university students wearing the Muslim headscarf, viewed by secularists as a symbol of political Islam.

Erdogan has denied the accusations, saying that his party—which does have Islamist roots—is not trying to instate Islamic rule in the country. The AKP submitted its defence to the court on Apr. 30.

On Jun. 5, the Constitutional Court ruled against the government’s proposed constitutional amendment to allow the use of the Muslim headscarf in universities. AKP legislators had tried to allow the garments as a matter of personal and religious freedom, but the court considered this to be against the country’s secularist mandate.

On Jun. 30, Wolfango Piccoli—an analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group— commented on the AKP’s case, saying, "If the party is closed we are going to have an early general election. All parties are getting ready for it. If the ruling comes in August or September we could have elections in November."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose the closure of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) for anti-secular activities?

Support 34%

Oppose 53%

17 Not sure 13%

Source: A&G Research Methodology: Interviews with 2,403 Turk adults in 33 provinces, conducted on Jun. 14 and Jun. 15, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Britain Divided Over Identity Cards

July 02, 2008

In 2006, the House of Commons approved the Identity Cards Act, effectively creating Britain’s National Identity Register (NIR). The NIR is due to store up to 49 different items on everyone living in the country, including fingerprints, DNA, home address and telephone numbers. The legislation stipulates that, starting in 2009, everybody in Britain will hold a "smart" biometric ID card linked to the national register. The card will be required for access to public services such as doctors’ surgeries, unemployment offices, libraries and others.

In June 2007, Gordon Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Tony Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Last month, Brown defended the ID card plan, saying, "Opponents of the identity card scheme like to suggest that its sole motivation is to enhance the power of the state. But, in fact, it starts from a recognition of the importance of something which is fundamental to the rights of the individual: the right to have your identity protected and secure. (...) We have made this clear in the legislation—that the identity card scheme will not be used to place new requirements on people.

Polling Data

Britons have not, until now, been required to carry proof of identity in peacetime. The government proposes introducing an ID card, and backing it up with a comprehensive database including biometric information about everyone in Britain. Which of these statements comes closer to your view?

ID cards and biometric information are a good idea: they will make identity theft 48% harder and keeping track of terrorists and illegal immigrants easier

18 The benefits of the ID card and biometric information system are few and possibly 45% non-existent; they certainly do not justify such an invasion of our privacy

Don’t know 7%

Source: YouGov / The Economist Methodology: Online interviews with 2,073 British voters, conducted from Jun. 17 to Jun. 19, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Britons Disappointed with Brown’s Government

June 20, 2008

Conversely, 63 per cent of respondents think Conservative leader David Cameron is doing a good job, up two points in a month.

In June 2007, Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Tony Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Since December 2005, Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. In October 2007, Cameron challenged Brown to call a snap election, but the prime minister later announced he would not hold an early ballot.

In December 2007, current parliamentarian Nick Clegg became the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, defeating environment spokesman Chris Huhne in a leadership ballot by just over 500 votes.

On Jun. 17, official numbers showed that Britain experienced the highest inflation rate in 18 years in the month of May, at 3.3 per cent. Bank of England governor Mervyn King warned that the rate can be higher in the next few months, saying, "As things stand, inflation is likely to rise sharply in the second half of the year, to above 4 per cent."

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

Do you think Gordon Brown is doing well or badly as prime minister?

Jun. 2008 May 2008 Apr. 2008

Well 16% 17% 26%

Badly 78% 78% 65%

Don’t know 5% 5% 7%

Do you think David Cameron is doing well or badly as Conservative leader?

Jun. 2008 May 2008 Apr. 2008

Well 63% 61% 51%

Badly 26% 28% 38%

Don’t know 11% 10% 11%

Source: YouGov Methodology: Online interviews with 1,769 British voters, conducted on Jun. 12 and Jun. 13, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

North America

June 30, 2008

About One in Four Voters Are “Swing Voters”

Higher proportion than in 2004

According to the most recent USA Today/Gallup survey, 23% of likely voters can be considered "swing voters" -- including 6% who do not have a preference between Barack Obama and John McCain for president, and 17% who currently support either McCain or Obama but say they could change their minds between now and Election Day.

Obama's seven-point advantage over McCain among voters who have made up their minds (42% to 35%) is similar to the six-point advantage (50% to 44%) he enjoys among all likely voters in the June 15-19 poll.

This is Gallup's first measurement of swing voters in the U.S. electorate this election cycle. At no point in 2004 -- a year when swing voters were somewhat scarce from a historical perspective -- did Gallup find as high a proportion of swing voters as it finds today. The high mark in swing voters in 2004 was just 18% in May, and in the final pre- election poll, only 9% of likely voters had not made a firm candidate choice.

Who Are the Swing Voters?

In a typical election year, political independents and moderates are among those most likely to fall into the swing voter group. And that is the case as well this year.

In this year's election, it appears that swing voters are less likely to come from subgroups that show strong support for Obama, which is a positive sign for Obama. As shown in the accompanying graphs, liberals are the least likely of the ideological groups, and Democrats of the party affiliation groups, to fall into the swing voter group.

Additionally, only 12% of voters under age 30 are swing voters, compared with roughly a quarter of those aged 30 or older. Throughout the campaign, young adults have supported Obama overwhelmingly.

Also, white voters (26%) are more likely than nonwhites (18%) to be uncommitted at this point. Obama has typically held the support of more than 90% of blacks and 60% of Hispanics.

22 Swing Voters Tend to Like Both McCain and Obama

In general, swing voters seem to be positively disposed toward both candidates -- 50% have a favorable opinion of both McCain and Obama; only 11% view both negatively. By comparison, just one-quarter of committed voters have a positive opinion of both candidates.

In July 2004, just 25% of swing voters viewed both John Kerry and George W. Bush favorably, while 13% had negative opinions of both.

That indicates that in this election, swing voters are much more likely to choose between two appealing options rather than trying to pick "the lesser of two evils."

Implications

With a greater proportion of swing voters available in this year's presidential election than in 2004, the campaigns may not wish to follow the famous Bush 2004 strategy of concentrating resources on mobilizing existing supporters instead of persuading undecideds.

If the campaigns choose to devote a substantial share of resources to winning over uncommitted voters, they may find a receptive audience. Half of swing voters have a positive opinion of both Obama and McCain, far more than had a favorable image of both Bush and Kerry in 2004. The candidates' messages, choices of vice presidential running

23 mates, and performance in the fall debates all have the potential to bring voters into their camps.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,310 likely voters, aged 18 and older, conducted June 15-19, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 1, 2008

Americans Worry McCain Would Be Too Similar to Bush

About half are concerned Obama would go too far in changing Bush policies

A recent USA Today/Gallup poll finds about two in three Americans concerned that John McCain would pursue policies as president that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued. Nearly half -- 49% -- say they are "very concerned" about this.

McCain faces a challenge in trying to convince voters to allow him to follow an unpopular president of the same party. Democratic candidate Barack Obama has attempted to link McCain to Bush by saying that electing McCain would effectively lead to a "third Bush term." Although McCain remains competitive in head-to-head matchups with Obama, the poll suggests that McCain may have more work to do to distance himself from Bush.

It is clearly a delicate balancing act for McCain, as Bush remains relatively popular with the Republican base. While only 28% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing as president, a majority of Republicans (60%) still do. Bush's approval rating among current McCain supporters is slightly lower, at 55%.

Bush is deeply unpopular with Democrats (only 6% approve), and 9 in 10 Democrats say they are concerned that McCain's policies would be too similar to those of Bush. But among independents -- a group to which McCain has demonstrated appeal -- most are concerned about McCain-Bush similarities, including nearly half who are very concerned. Even one in five Republicans are very concerned about the similarities.

A recent CBS News poll asked registered voters what they thought McCain would do -- continue Bush's policies, change to more conservative policies, or change to less conservative policies. A plurality of 43% believe he would continue Bush's policies, but more expect some change -- either more conservative (21%) or less conservative (28%) policies. Thus, while most voters express concern about McCain being too much like Bush, most do not necessarily expect this to happen.

While most Democrats (65%) believe that McCain would generally continue Bush's policies, only 34% of independents and 20% of Republicans do. Independents are about evenly divided as to whether McCain would be more conservative or less conservative than Bush, while nearly half of Republicans think he would be less conservative.

Obama and "Change"

Obama is running as the "change" candidate, and while that would seem to be the advantageous positioning in an election to replace an unpopular incumbent, there is risk in advocating more change than perhaps Americans would be comfortable with. To the extent that McCain and the Republican Party can paint Obama as looking to make too great a departure from the status quo, they can make McCain seem like a safe alternative.

26 The USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans how concerned they are that Obama would go too far in changing policies that Bush has pursued. About half say they are concerned, including 30% who are very concerned. One in three Americans -- predominantly Democrats -- are not concerned at all.

Most Republicans -- who likely will vote for McCain anyway -- are concerned about Obama making too much of a departure from Bush. Less than half of independents are, including only 22% who say they are very concerned (compared with 47% of independents who are very concerned about McCain being too similar to Bush).

Implications

At this point, Americans seem more concerned about not getting enough change than about getting too much with the next president, which works to Obama's benefit. But the campaign has barely begun and Republicans will do their best to make the case that Obama is too inexperienced and too liberal to be trusted (Obama had the highest liberal voting score of any senator in 2007, according to the National Journal's annual report).

McCain does have enough disagreements with Bush to perhaps make the argument that he will not represent a third Bush term seem credible. At the same time, on the major issues such as the economy and Iraq, McCain's and Bush's positions are essentially the same.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,625 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 15-19, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

The questions reported here are based on randomly selected half samples of the entire sample, and have a margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

28 In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 16, 2008

More See America's Loss of Global Respect as Major Problem

Majority of Republicans Say U.S. Is Less Respected

More Americans now say that the United States is less respected in the world than it has been in the past, and a growing proportion views this as a major problem for the country. More than seven-in-ten Americans (71%) say that the United States is less respected by other countries these days, up from 65% in August 2006.

29 For the first time since Pew began asking this question in 2004, a majority of Americans now sees the loss of international respect for the United States as a major problem. The percentage of Americans saying the loss of international respect is a major problem has risen from 43% in 2005 to 48% in 2006 and 56% currently.

The most recent national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted May 21-25 among 1,505 adults, finds that majorities of Democrats (81%), independents (72%) and Republicans (60%) believe that the United States has lost global respect in recent years.

In particular, Republican opinion about international respect for America has shifted substantially over the past two years. A clear majority of Republicans (60%) now say the nation is less respected in the international community, an increase of 12 points since August 2006. Moreover, 43% of Republicans say the loss of global respect represents a major problem, compared with just 26% two years ago.

Over the same period, opinion among Democrats and independents about America's global image has remained more stable. While somewhat more Democrats say the nation is less respected than in 2006 (81% now vs. 76% then), there has been little change in the proportion who view this as a major problem; opinion among independents about global respect for the United States has remained stable since 2006.

30 Top Threats: Islamic Extremism, Iran and North Korea

When asked to assess a set of specific international threats to the United States, public consensus is strongest about the threat posed by Islamic extremist groups like al Qaeda. More than seven-in-ten (72%) view these groups as a "major threat" to the national well- being.

Solid majorities also say that the nuclear programs of Iran (62%) and North Korea (55%) represent major threats to the United States. Opinions about Iran's nuclear program have changed little since 2005, while the percentage expressing concern about North Korea's program has declined somewhat (from 66% who viewed the program as a major threat in 2005 to 55% who do so today). Half of Americans see China's emergence as a world power as a major threat, a proportion that has remained largely unchanged since the question was first asked in 1999.

Other potential international threats - political instability in Pakistan and growing authoritarianism in Russia - are of considerably less concern to Americans. The public is divided over the severity of the threat posed by Pakistani instability (41% view this as a major threat, while 40% see it as a minor threat). Only about a quarter of the public (24%) says growing Russian authoritarianism is major threat to the United States.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to express concern about the top three potential threats (Islamic extremist groups and the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea). An overwhelming majority of Republicans (86%) say that al Qaeda and other Islamic extremist groups represent a major threat to the country's well-being. About two- thirds of independents (68%) and Democrats (67%) express this view.

Nearly three-quarters of Republicans (74%) say that Iran's nuclear program is a major threat to the United States, compared with 62% of independents and 55% of Democrats. The partisan gap in opinion about the threat that North Korea's nuclear program poses is slightly smaller; 61% of Republicans views this as a major threat, as do 58% of independents and 51% of Democrats.

Taken together, 54% of Republicans say that Islamic extremist groups and the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea are major threats; just 42% of independents and 37% of Democrats say all three represent major threats to the United States. By contrast, there is little partisan difference in the percentages viewing other potential threats (China, Pakistan and Russia) as major concerns.

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a nationwide sample of 1,505 adults, 18 years of age or older, from May 21-25, 2008. The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

32 June 27, 2008

Americans Oppose Income Redistribution to Fix Economy

Half say the government is doing too much, 43% too little to solve country's problems

Lack of Support for Wealth Redistribution Spans Political Party, Income Groups

Americans' lack of support for redistributing wealth to fix the economy spans political parties: Republicans (by 90% to 9%) prefer that the government focus on improving the economy, as do independents (by 85% to 13%) and Democrats (by 77% to 19%). This sentiment also extends across income groups: upper-income Americans prefer that the government focus on improving the economy and jobs by 88% to 10%, concurring with middle-income (83% to 16%) and lower-income (78% to 17%) Americans.

Half of Americans Think Government Is Doing Too Much, Not Too Little

A separate question finds Americans more likely to believe government is doing too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses (50%) as opposed to saying government should do more to solve the country's problems (43%). This broad question is not directed specifically at the economy, but reinforces the general idea that many Americans are leery of too much direct government intervention in fixing the country's problems.

This philosophical issue appears to divide Americans by both political party and income groups. Republicans think the government is currently doing too much, by 72% to 24%; independents are split, with 47% saying the government is doing too much and 44% saying it is not doing enough; and Democrats say the government needs to do more by 58% to 36%.

Upper- income (57% to 38%) and middle-income (54% to 40%) Americans tend to agree that the government is doing too much, while those with lower incomes tend to say the government should do more (by 55% to 36%).

35 Commentary

With Barack Obama suggesting a variety of tax increases for upper-income Americans and John McCain opposing them, one might assume that Americans' minimal support for government getting into wealth redistribution to help the economy would favor McCain. Although the margins are much smaller when it comes to the idea that government is doing too much as opposed to too little to solve the country's problems, this issue would also seem to favor McCain.

However, the situation gets somewhat more complicated when income and wealth redistribution are mixed with more specific efforts to stimulate the economy. Consider the current tax rebates. They represent a clear case of income redistribution because they are phased out for upper-income taxpayers. Still, they also have had a stimulative effect on the economy, and they received overwhelming support across political lines when they passed in February.

Now Obama has proposed another economic stimulus package and a permanent $1,000 income-tax cut for lower- and middle-income taxpayers. The idea seems to be that the government can't do much about surging food and energy prices -- but it can cushion the blow of these price increases on those who can least afford them by sending lower- and middle-income Americans cash payments and providing them with a tax reduction. Obama would fund these payments by increasing taxes on higher-income Americans.

One presumed advantage of this proposed government approach to rising food and energy prices is that it allows the free markets to work. Prices are then left to drive the adjustments the U.S. economy will have to make to manage the new reality of much higher global commodity costs. And while the benefits of these payments will not be based on how much higher food and energy costs affect an individual consumer, thereby creating additional inequities, they will favor those who conserve. For example, those who get government payments and do not own a car will be proportionally better off than those who do own a car and travel significant distances to work.

However, the downside is the income and wealth redistribution aspects of this process. While, in the abstract, many Americans believe that the wealthy do not pay enough taxes, the forced-choice question reported on here shows that there is a strong feeling that taxing one group to give the money to another is not the favored approach to fixing the economy.

In sum, free-market advocates can take considerable solace in Americans' overwhelming belief that the government should not focus on redistributing income and wealth, but on improving the overall economy. And, to a lesser degree, Americans also believe

36 government continues to do too much -- not too little -- to solve the nation's problems. On the other hand, the economic turbulence of 2008 could end up getting government into significant new income and wealth redistribution programs unless the Treasury and the Federal Reserve act soon to stabilize and reduce today's unmanageable food and energy price increases.

Survey Methods

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 23, 2008

Confidence in U.S. Banks Down Sharply

Only 32% of Americans express confidence in U.S. banking institutions

Confidence in Banking Takes a Tumble

This has not been a good year for banking given the subprime crisis, the Bear Stearns bailout, and the consumer credit crunch. Everyone in and around banking has assumed that all of these difficulties have taken a toll on consumer confidence in the industry. The question is how much damage has been done.

A new June 9-12 Gallup Poll shows consumer confidence in banking has fallen near its lowest level since Gallup began asking this question in April 1979. Currently, only one- third of Americans express confidence in today's banking institutions, comparable to the lows of 32% and 30% seen in March and October of 1991, respectively. This was during the 1990-1991 recession and also reflected the fallout associated with the Savings and Loan debacle of the late 1980s.

The precipitous nature of the recent decline in consumer confidence in banking is probably best reflected by how it compares to what has been happening with confidence levels in other institutions. While confidence in banks remains above the record-low level of Congress and the low levels of many other institutions, banking has been the only U.S. institution to experience a significant drop in confidence over the past year. Gallup has asked about confidence in institutions regularly since 1973. Sharp changes in the results of this question from year to year are rare, so this significant decline in confidence in banks is particularly notable.

Commentary

Given the recent negative statements and related cuts in dividends by various banks last week, it appears that the fallout from the current period of banking stress has some ways to go before it has run its course. Gallup's new poll shows that even before the latest revelations, consumer confidence in banking had taken a significant tumble.

While the existence of federal deposit insurance and the willingness of the Fed and Treasury to act to prevent a major financial services firm collapse have created a strong safety net for today's depositors, the nation's banking institutions need to be very aware of the recent plunge in consumer confidence in banking. The squeeze on the bottom line will create significant pressure to cut expenses everywhere possible, but bank management should simultaneously be doing everything possible to reassure customers -- many of whom are older Americans -- that they place safety, soundness, and customer relationships/confidence above everything else.

39 Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 822 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 9-12, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

East Asia

June 26, 2008

Inflation Grips Indonesians, Worries Reach Three-Year High

Roughly 4 in 10 say living standards getting worse

40 Roughly 4 in 10 Indonesians said their living standard is getting worse, which is the highest Gallup has measured in three years. Indonesians have voiced their frustrations in widespread demonstrations against the government's move to cut fuel subsidies and raise prices by about 30%. After a violent, student-led protest in Jakarta on Tuesday, Indonesia's parliament voted to review the government's price hike.

Since the beginning of the year, inflation, driven by higher food and energy prices, has accelerated to levels that Indonesians haven't seen in nearly two years. Thirty-six percent of Indonesians surveyed in March 2008, when inflation was just above 8%, said they were finding it difficult (24%) or very difficult (12%) to live on their present household incomes. These figures are somewhat higher than in 2005 and much higher than in 2007.

The latest fuel hike marks the second time since October 2005 that Indonesia's government has taken what it knows to be an unpopular but necessary measure to combat ballooning fuel subsidies. The 126% fuel price increase in 2005 was much larger than 30% increase last month, but combined with rising food costs and inflation, it may strongly affect the millions of Indonesians who live on less than $2 a day.

Economic Outlook

With so many Indonesians in the grips of financial stress, and growth-inhibiting inflation, it is not surprising that many also have a dour outlook on the economic conditions in their

41 country. Nearly 6 in 10 Indonesians said they perceive economic conditions as getting worse, which is by far the most pessimistic outlook in years.

Indonesia's inflation eased considerably in late 2006 and 2007, and the country enjoyed strong economic growth accompanied by healthy increases in private consumption and investment. This situation is reflected in Indonesians' outlook toward economic conditions last year, which was relatively rosy in comparison with 2005 and current estimations.

Bottom Line

Given Indonesians' already dismal outlook on their standard of living and economy, it raises the question of how much patience they will show with their government -- especially in next year's election -- if high inflation persists as expected. As in 2005, the government is giving Indonesia's poor $1.5 billion in cash handouts over the next year and a half to help stem unrest and ease the financial strain of higher prices. This approach appeared to quell protests then, but double-digit inflation persisted for more than a year afterward.

Survey Methods

42 Results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults living in Indonesia, aged 15 and older, conducted in September 2005, April 2007, and March 2008. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 20, 2008

Indonesians Champion Religious Freedom

About half say their communities are good places for religious minorities

The Indonesian government's decision last week to restrict members of a minority Muslim sect from practicing their faith may be at odds with the country's constitution and the ideals of many of its residents, who overwhelmingly support the right for people to observe any religion and practice its teachings and beliefs.

In each of the three surveys Gallup has conducted in Indonesia, roughly 9 in 10 respondents have said that if they were asked to help draft a constitution for a new country, they would probably support a provision for freedom of religion. These sentiments are in line with the country's constitution, which explicitly guarantees all persons "the freedom of worship, each according to his/her own religion or belief."

43 In Indonesia, the world's largest predominantly Muslim country, residents' views are roughly on par with, or higher than what Gallup has observed in several predominantly Muslim countries in Asia. Indonesians are as likely as Bangladeshis and Malaysians to support provisions for religious freedom, and more likely than either Pakistanis or Afghans to express support.

Climate for Religious Minorities

The government decree restricting the religious activities of the minority Ahmadiyya sect, regarded as heretical and non-Muslim by many Muslims, has sparked concern about the future of religious freedom and existing religious tensions in a country that is home to sizable Christian, Hindu, and Buddhist populations.

In the past decade, Indonesians have witnessed large- and small-scale violence between Muslims and Christians and rising militant Islamist activity. Given this history and current tensions, it is perhaps understandable why only about half of Indonesians surveyed in 2005 and 2007 (Gallup did not ask the question in 2008) said their communities were good places for religious minorities to live.

Bottom Line

Under pressure from hard-line Islamic groups to ban the sect, the government instead issued the decree, which clearly displeased Indonesian Muslims on both sides. On the one hand, moderates, who represent a majority of Indonesians, have criticized the government

44 for getting involved and violating the constitution. On the other hand, hardliners are still demanding that the government ban the sect and are threatening violence. On Wednesday, thousands of protesters, some reportedly carrying banners that read "Maintain sharia, disband Ahmadiyya" took to the streets in Jakarta. And on Thursday, crowds sealed off Ahmadiyya schools and mosques.

Some observers at home and abroad perceive the government's intervention in the matter as pandering to hard-line Islamic parties ahead of an election year. If so, judging from the high percentages of Indonesians who champion religious freedom as a constitutional right, and the dissatisfaction among moderates and hardliners with the decree, the government may jeopardize its support from both.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults living in Indonesia, aged 15 and older, conducted in September 2005, April 2007, and March 2008, and in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Malaysia in 2006 and 2007. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

West Asia

Pakistanis Support Negotiations with Taliban and Al-Qaida

In a resounding setback for American policy, Pakistanis strongly favor their own government not fighting against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, but negotiating with them instead. Public support for Al Qaeda is also gaining ground since earlier this year.

Important Parliamentary by-elections are scheduled in Pakistan for June 26th. In the first poll before the elections, our survey shows that Nawaz Sharif is now the most popular political leader in Pakistan. Mr. Sharif’s party, the PML-N, would emerge as the clear winner in any national contest, far eclipsing the current largest party in Parliament, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

These are among the many findings of a new and extensive nationwide public opinion survey from May 25th to June 1st, 2008 across Pakistan, covering both urban and rural areas and all provinces. The survey, with face-to-face interviews of 1,306 Pakistanis age 18 or older and a margin of error of 3 percent, was conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow:

45 The Center for Public Opinion, in collaboration with the New America Foundation, and field work inside Pakistan by the Pakistan Institute for Public Opinion, an affiliate of Gallup Pakistan. The survey is the third nationwide poll over the past nine months conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow and Gallup Pakistan.

Public Support for Al Qaeda, the Taliban and Bin Laden Increases; Pakistanis Decisively Favor Negotiations over Military Action

Half of all Pakistanis want their government to negotiate and not fight Al Qaeda, with less than a third saying military action by the Pakistani government against Al Qaeda is called for. (For Pakistani Taliban, 58 percent favor negotiating to 19 percent for military action.)

Pakistan is considered by most national security experts to be the home base of Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda and many Taliban fighters. From a safe haven in the border areas of Pakistan, they are free to train, plan and launch attacks inside Afghanistan and elsewhere. Indeed, last week, Admiral Michael Mullen, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the planning to hit America itself with another terrorist attack is now taking place—and that it would come from Pakistan.

The new Pakistani civilian government has begun a controversial policy of negotiating with certain Pakistani Taliban fighters—though not with Al Qaeda.

In stark opposition to American policy, the Pakistani people themselves would go even further than their own government and not only negotiate with Pakistani Taliban fighters, but with both Arab Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban fighters as well, decisively opposing any military action.

Even before the latest American military incursion (which occurred after our poll was complete), a mere 12 percent of Pakistanis supported any unilateral American military action against Al Qaeda fighters inside Pakistan. Strong opposition to the US military has also intensified since earlier this year.

Favorable opinion toward Al Qaeda is mounting inside Pakistan. A third of Pakistanis now voice a positive view, nearly double the percentage from earlier this year. Similarly, for Bin Laden, 34 percent currently have a favorable opinion, up from 24 percent in January (but still below the 46 percent who thought so in August 2007). Trust for American motives has sunk to new lows: Three quarters of Pakistanis say that the real purpose of the US-led war on terror is to weaken the Muslim world and dominate Pakistan.

46 Significantly, when asked who was most responsible for the violence that is occurring in Pakistan today, more than half (52 percent) blame the United States—only 8 percent Al Qaeda fighters.

Despite the spate of suicide bombings that have shaken Pakistan at the apparent hands of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, Pakistanis see the United States as posing the greatest threat to their own personal safety. 44 percent of Pakistanis think the United States poses the greatest threat to their personal safety (traditional enemy India is next at 14 percent). By contrast, a mere 6 percent feel Al Qaeda is a threat, with 4 percent the Afghan Taliban and 8 percent the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistanis Agree with Al Qaeda Goals, but Not Tactics

Al Qaeda’s considerable goodwill inside Pakistan is generated by their perceived goals, which Pakistanis say they largely share. More than any other goal, Pakistanis think that standing up to America is the goal of Bin Laden and Al Qaeda—and 57 percent agree with that Al Qaeda goal. Likewise, the most important reason for backing Al Qaeda/Bin Laden for almost two-thirds of their supporters was the perception that they stand up to America and lead a defensive jihad against it.

Pakistanis, however, continue to oppose suicide attacks, with 14 percent thinking these attacks can often or sometimes be justified. Pakistani opposition to suicide attacks extends to whoever is the intended target, with opposition equally highest to both Pakistani and American civilians and dropping slightly for Pakistani and American military personnel.

Before Upcoming By-Elections, Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N overtake the PPP as the Most Popular Party in Pakistan

In another dramatic reversal of Pakistani public opinion, Nawaz Sharif has emerged, by far, as the most popular political leader in Pakistan today. In advance of the June 26th Parliamentary by-elections in Pakistan, a striking 86 percent of Pakistanis have a favorable opinion of Mr. Sharif, a former Pakistani Prime Minister with conservative Islamist ties that have made some American policy makers indicate concern.

Mr. Sharif has also seen a steady rise in his popularity, from 57 percent favorable in our August 2007 poll, to 74 percent in January 2008 and 86 percent today. As significantly, those with a very favorable opinion have almost doubled since January 2008 to 43 percent now—a level no other political figure in Pakistan comes even close to. (By comparison, Mr. Zardari, leader of the PPP, just has a 13% very favorable rating.)

If national elections were held today, Mr. Sharif’s party, the PML-N, would emerge as the clear winner, garnering 42 percent of the vote to the PPP’s 32 percent. The PML-N

47 has witnessed a significant surge in popularity. From only 15 percent saying they would vote for them in our August 2007 poll, to 25 percent in our pre-election January poll (which mirrored the actual election results), the Party today stands at 42 percent, the most popular party in Pakistan.

Pakistanis Hold their Government Responsible for the High Food and Fuel Prices; Want Independent Judiciary and Blame PPP and Musharraf for Impasse over Restoring Judges

The reasons for the rise of Mr. Sharif and the declining fortunes of others inside Pakistan can be found in widespread Pakistani discontent with the status quo.

The high cost of food and fuel is hitting ordinary Pakistanis hard. An overwhelming 86 percent of Pakistanis have faced increasing difficulty in obtaining flour for their daily food consumption—primarily because of high prices. And Pakistanis consider their own government most responsible.

Similarly, 81 percent have been affected by the high price of fuel, with again, in their view, the Pakistani government most responsible, only for fuel closely followed by American and Western oil companies.

Overall, just 20 percent of Pakistanis think their country is heading in the right direction. With the highest priority Pakistanis have for their government (even slightly higher than the economy) an independent judiciary, most Pakistanis now blame the PPP and President Musharraf for failing to restore the judges sacked by Mr. Musharraf last fall. Almost three-quarters of Pakistanis want Mr. Musharraf to resign and if he doesn’t, to be removed by Parliament as President.

Dissatisfaction with the current civilian government does not mean, however, that the public wants the Pakistani military to return to political affairs. In our survey last August, 45 percent approved of the military playing a role in the political and economic affairs of the country. That number has now dropped to 28 percent, while those who disapprove have steadily risen from 46 percent last August to 64 percent now, with those strongly disapproving doubling to over half.

Opinion of the U.S. Still Negative, but Open to Change

While attitudes towards the United States and particularly the American war on terror remain strongly negative, Pakistanis say that a change in American policy toward Pakistan would bring about a stunning change in Pakistani public opinion toward the United States.

Two-thirds of Pakistanis said that policies ranging from increased American business investment, free trade, educational aid, disaster assistance, medical care/training and

48 increased U.S. visas for Pakistanis would significantly improve their opinion of the United States.

More than two-thirds of Pakistanis who now have favorable views of Al Qaeda and Bin Laden said they would also significantly change their opinion of the U.S. with these new American policies.

Indeed, the number of Pakistanis who are now willing to view the United States more positively with new American actions is higher than at any other time that we have measured in our surveys.

Africa

Corruption is the Norm, Say South Africans

June 30, 2008

In addition, 85 per cent of respondents believe there is corruption in senior levels of government, and 89 per cent want this situation to be addressed.

Thabo Mbeki replaced Nelson Mandela as South Africa’s president after the 1999 general election, where the African National Council (ANC) received 66.4 per cent of the vote. Mbeki led the ANC to a second majority government in April 2004, with 69.68 per cent of all cast ballots and 279 lawmakers in the 400-seat National Assembly.

South Africans will renew their legislature and choose a new president next year. In January, Jacob Zuma—currently the ANC president—was named as the party’s presidential candidate.

Zuma served as the country’s deputy president from 1999 to 2005. In June 2005, Mbeki dismissed him after testimony in the trial of Zuma’s financial adviser Schabir Shaik apparently implicated the deputy president in corrupt activities. Shaik was sentenced to 15 years in jail for fraud and corruption. The charges stemmed from an earlier inquiry into a South African government weapons acquisition agreement.

Zuma is to appear before a High Court on Aug. 14 to face charges related to the arms deal, including racketeering, corruption, money laundering and fraud. If he is convicted, Zuma would be disqualified from serving as South Africa’s president.

On Jun. 27, Helen Zille, leader of the official opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), claimed that Zuma and his political allies are plotting to grant him a pardon in case the

49 court finds him guilty next year—at a time when he might already be serving as president. Zille said a verdict against Zuma will not necessarily be a challenge to his potential mandate, declaring, "This probably matters little to a man who has consistently said that the ANC is more important than the constitution."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? ("Agree" listed)

Corruption has become a way of life in South Africa 87%

There is corruption in senior levels of government 85%

Corruption needs to be eliminated in government 89%

Source: TNS Research Surveys Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,000 South African adults in seven major metropolitan areas, conducted in April 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Few South Africans Welcome Zimbabwe Refugees

July 05, 2008

Zimbabwe’s government—headed by Robert Mugabe since 1980—has been repeatedly criticized for human rights abuses. More than five million people have left Zimbabwe over the past decade, seeking refuge mostly in South Africa, Botswana and Mozambique. The country’s unemployment rate reaches 80 per cent according to recent estimates, with 68 per cent of the population living in poverty.

Zimbabwe held a presidential election on Mar. 29. Official results gave opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) candidate Morgan Tsvangirai a narrow lead over Mugabe. A run-off was scheduled for Jun. 27.

On Jun. 22, Tsvangirai withdrew from the second round, saying, "Conditions as of today do not permit the holding of a credible poll. Given the totality of these circumstances, we believe a credible election is impossible. We can’t ask the people to cast their vote on June 27 when that vote will cost their lives. We will no longer participate in this violent sham of an election."

Voting went on as scheduled. Mugabe was sworn in for a new six-year term on Jun. 29.

50 On Jun. 28, the international aid group Doctors Without Borders denounced that South Africa deported 450 refugees back to Zimbabwe the night before. Rachel Cohen, head of the group’s South African branch, called the deportations "unacceptable" and "in violation of international as well as South African law, which guarantee the right to seek asylum."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? ("Agree" listed)

Refugees from Zimbabwe should be allowed to stay in South Africa 29%

Source: TNS Research Surveys Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,000 South African adults in seven major metropolitan areas, conducted in April 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Global Polls

Most Publics--including Americans--Oppose Taking Sides in Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

July 1, 2008

Israeli, Palestinian, American and Arab Leaders All Get Low Marks On Efforts to Resolve Conflict

Most Favor UN Playing Robust Role in Peace Enforcement

Asked to evaluate how well a number of key actors are doing their part to resolve the conflict, none of them get good grades, including Israel, the Palestinians, the United States, and the Arab countries. On average across all the countries polled, none of the actors receives good grades from more than 3 in 10. Interestingly, Americans are divided as to whether the United States is doing its part.

Publics in most countries favor the United Nations offering to play a robust role in support of a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Nearly all publics would favor the UN saying that, if the parties come to a peace agreement, the UN would send a peacekeeping force to enforce it. Most publics would also favor the UN offering to

51 provide security guarantees to both Israel and the Arab countries should a peace agreement be reached.

"Publics around the world are not cheering for either side and want their governments to take an even-handed approach," said Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org. "All of the key actors are seen as failing to do their part to break the impasse and most want the UN Security Council to step in and offer peacekeeping forces and even security guarantees to help resolve the conflict."

The poll of 18,792 respondents was conducted by WorldPublicOpinion.org, a collaborative research project involving research centers from around the world and managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. Interviews were conducted in 18 countries, including most of the largest nations -China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Russia--as well as Mexico, Peru, Britain, France, Spain, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Thailand and South Korea. Not all questions were asked in all countries. In addition, most of the questions were asked in the Palestinian Territories. The nations included represent 59 percent of the world population.

Publics Support Even-Handed Approach to Conflict

Asked how their country should approach the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 14 out of 18 publics preferred taking neither side. On average, 58 percent say that their country should not take either side, while just 20 percent favor siding with the Palestinians and 7 percent say that their country should take Israel's side.

In eight of the countries this was a large majority--seven in 10 or more--including Mexicans (88%), South Koreans (82%), Britons (79%), the French (79%), Peruvians (76%), the Chinese (74%), Americans (71%), and Ukrainians (69%).

Only in a few predominantly Muslim countries do most favor taking the side of the Palestinians. Robust majorities take this position in Egypt (86%) and Iran (63%), as does a modest plurality in Turkey (42% Palestinians' side, 38% neither side). However two

52 other predominantly Muslim countries primarily favor taking neither side--Azerbaijan (54%) and Indonesia (43%).

In no country does a majority favor taking Israel's side. The largest percentages favoring taking Israel's side are Indians (24%), Americans (21%), and Nigerians (15%).

Negative Reviews of Israel, Palestinians, US, Arab Countries, Quartet

World publics give low marks to all the various parties who play a major role in trying to resolve the conflict. Respondents were asked to evaluate how well each party is "doing its part," in "the effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." In nearly all cases publics give poor grades to Israel, the Palestinians, the United States, or the Arab countries.

Israel

Israel receives the worst ratings, with most saying they are not doing their part very well in 13 out of 15 countries asked. On average, 54 percent say it is not doing its part well (31% not very, 23% not at all) while just 22 percent say it is (5% very, 17% somewhat).

Negative ratings of Israel are not confined to predominantly Muslim publics--the largest majorities saying Israel is not doing its part well include Egypt (88%), South Korea (69%), Indonesia (66%), France (64%), the United States (59%), Azerbaijan (59%), Mexico (57%), and Great Britain (57%).

Only in India do more say that Israel is doing its part than do not (35% to 25%), while the Chinese are divided (41% to 39%).

In addition, the Palestinians were asked to evaluate Israel (though they are not included in the averages). Not surprisingly, 81 percent say that Israel is not doing its part well (61%, not at all well). Just 13 percent say that it is (4% very well).

Palestinians

53 Ratings of the Palestinians are not much better than those of Israel. In ten out of 15 countries most say they are not doing their part well to resolve the conflict. An average of 47 percent says they are not doing their part well, while just 28 percent say they are.

The largest majorities critical of Palestinian efforts are Americans (75%), South Koreans (74%), the French (66%), Mexicans (61%) and British (57%). Pluralities in Turkey (42%) and Azerbaijan (50%) also rate the Palestinians' efforts poorly, as do pluralities of Russians (41%), Ukrainians (34%), and Thais (33%), though many decline to offer an opinion.

Palestinians receive the most positive ratings from Egyptians (63%) and Nigerians (46%), though a significant number of Nigerians is also critical (43%) making the overall public divided. Pluralities in Indonesia (49%), China (40%), and India (34%) all say the Palestinians are doing their part at least somewhat well.

The Palestinians give themselves quite good ratings (again, they were excluded from the averages). Seventy-five percent say they are doing their part well (40%, very). However, 15 percent give them poor ratings (5%, not well at all).

United States

Asked to rate how well the United States is doing its part to resolve the conflict, 12 out of 15 nations say the United States is not doing its part well (excluding Americans but including Palestinians). On average, 59 percent rate US efforts poorly, while just 20 percent give positive ratings.

54 US efforts receive the most negative evaluations from Egyptians (86%), Mexicans (77%), the Palestinians (77%), the French (71%), South Koreans (70%), the Chinese (69%), and Turks (64%).

A majority of Nigerians (53%) says that the US is doing its part at least somewhat well. Indians are divided (33% well, 34% not well), as are Thais (27% well, 26% not well).

Interestingly, Americans themselves are divided. Only 44 percent say the United States is doing its part well (7%, very), while 46 percent say it is not (15%, not at all).

Arab Countries

Evaluations of the Arab countries are somewhat less negative than those of Israel or the US, with most in 11 out of 15 publics rating their efforts negatively (excluding the Egyptians). On average, a plurality among the nations polled (48%) says they are not doing their part well, while just 23 percent say they are.

Americans (78%) and South Koreans (76%) rate the Arab countries most negatively, followed by the French (69%). Majorities of the Palestinians (57%) and Turks (58%) also rate them negatively.

In just two countries a plurality gives a positive rating--Indonesia (50%) and China (40%). Two publics are divided: Nigeria and India.

The one Arab nation (other than the Palestinians) polled--Egypt--gives the Arab countries a positive evaluation. Seventy-one percent say the Arab countries are doing their part well (9%, very well), while just 29 percent say they are not.

The Quartet

The countries that are part of the "Quartet" were also polled on the performance of their country and of the European Union. The Quartet consists of the US, Russia, the UN, and the European Union.

55 The European Union's efforts were evaluated by France and Britain. The EU receives negative ratings from pluralities in both countries (France 48%, Britain 45%), and in both countries those giving positive ratings does not exceed one third (France 33%, Britain 31%).

The British also give their own country poor ratings. A plurality of 47 percent gives their government an unfavorable review while 33 percent give a positive review.

Russians are a bit more upbeat about their country's performance. While many do not provide an answer, a plurality of 36 percent give a positive evaluation while 17 percent give a negative one.

Widespread Support for Robust UN Role

Overall, there is strong support for the United Nations playing a robust role in the effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Very large numbers favor the United Nations contributing a peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement and substantial numbers favor the UN Security Council offering to provide security guarantees to Israel and the Arab countries.

Enforcement of Peace Agreement

In 16 of 17 countries polled, majorities or pluralities favor the UN Security Council offering--if Israel and the Palestinians come to a peace agreement--to send a peacekeeping force to enforce the agreement. On average, 67 percent favor such an approach, while just 20 percent oppose the idea.

Among all of the permanent members of the UN Security Council publics are supportive. In four countries this is by a robust majority--China (81%), France (74%), Great Britain (67%), and the United States (61%). Only in Russia is support limited to a plurality (47%), though few are opposed (25%).

Palestinians are strongly in favor of such an idea (63%), as are those in other predominantly Muslim countries--Turkey (65%), and Egypt (64%).

56 In addition, large majorities also favor this idea in Nigeria (89%), Indonesia (88%), South Korea (83%), Mexico (82%), and Azerbaijan (74%). Only Ukrainians are not in favor, but rather are divided (35% favor, 32% oppose) with a large number uncertain.

Providing Security Guarantees

Respondents were also asked about a much stronger possible commitment by the UN Security Council in the event of a peace agreement--committing to protect Israel if attacked by its Arab neighbors, and to protect Arab countries if attacked by Israel. Though such a commitment could prove costly, support was surprisingly high. Out of 16 nations, 11 favor such a UNSC commitment to protect Israel and 13 favor a commitment to protect Arab countries.

On average, 45 percent favor providing security guarantees to Israel (36% opposed), while 55 percent favor providing guarantees to Arab countries (24% opposed).

Ten countries favor the UN Security Council providing security guarantees to both Arab countries and Israel. This includes three of the permanent members of the Security Council. Very large majorities are supportive in China (84% for Arab countries, 80% for Israel), with more modest majorities in France (61% for Arab countries, 65% for Israel) and Great Britain (54% for Arab countries, 51% for Israel).

Other countries include Mexico (66% for Arab countries, 57% for Israel), Nigeria (67% for Arab countries, 61% for Israel), Azerbaijan (63% for Arab countries, 57% for Israel), and Turkey (50% for Arab countries, 43% for Israel). South Koreans support both proposed commitments equally (63% for the Arab countries, 65% for Israel), Indonesia has a large majority favoring protection of the Arab countries (71%), while a much smaller plurality (48%) favors the UNSC protecting Israel as well. Pluralities in Thailand are also favorable, though many appear to have an unformed opinion on the issue (for Arab countries 32% favor, 14% oppose; for Israel 31% favor, 16% oppose).

57 The other two permanent members of the UN Security Council--the United States and Russia--have less robust public support. A majority of Americans favor making a commitment to protect Israel (53% favor), but a plurality opposes protecting Arab countries (38% favor, 50% oppose). Russians oppose protecting Israel from an attack by its Arab neighbors by a slight margin (36% oppose, 28% favor) while a similar number oppose protecting Israel (34% to 27%). But large numbers of Russians do not take a position.

Only two publics where a majority favors protection of Arab countries do not also favor protecting Israel: Egyptians (82% Arab countries, 16% Israel) and the Palestinians themselves (75% Arab countries, 12% Israel).

Among Indians, a plurality favors protecting Arab countries (28% favor, 19% oppose), but they are divided on whether Israel should also receive protection from the UNSC (34% favor, 34% oppose).

Ukrainians, like Russians, have pluralities opposed to protecting Israel (39% oppose, 15% favor) and Arab countries (38% to 15%), with large numbers undecided.

World Publics Reject Torture

June 24, 2008

But a Substantial Number Make Exception for Terrorists

A WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 19 nations finds that in 14 of them most people favor an unequivocal rule against torture, even in the case of terrorists who have information that could save innocent lives. Four nations lean toward favoring an exception in the case of terrorists.

58 However, large majorities in all 19 nations favor a general prohibition against torture. In all nations polled, the number saying that the government should generally be able to use torture is less than one in five.

On average across all nations polled, 57 percent opt for unequivocal rules against torture. Thirty-five percent favor an exception when innocent lives are at risk. Just 9 percent favor the government being able to use torture in general.

The four publics that favor an exception for terrorists when innocent lives are at risk include majorities in India (59%), Nigeria (54%), and Turkey (51%), and a plurality in Thailand (44%).

Support for the unequivocal position was highest in Spain (82%), Great Britain (82%) and France (82%), followed by Mexico (73%), China (66%), the Palestinian territories (66%), Poland (62%), Indonesia (61%), and the Ukraine (59%). In five countries either modest majorities or pluralities support a ban on all torture: Azerbaijan (54%), Egypt (54%), the United States (53%), Russia (49%), and Iran (43%). South Koreans are divided.

Amnesty International's 2007 State of the World Report documents numerous cases of torture by governments around the world, including cases where governments actively use torture as well as cases where governments have failed to take action against police or other officials who have used torture.

"The idea that torture by governments is basically wrong is widely shared in all corners of the world. Even the scenario one hears of terrorists holding information that could save innocent lives is rejected as a justification for torture in most countries," comments Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org.

"Further," Kull adds, "since such a scenario is exceedingly rare, this poll suggests that virtually all torture used by governments is at odds with the will of the people."

59 WorldPublicOpinion.org is releasing this poll in advance of International Victims of Torture Day (June 26), a date recognized by the United Nations and observed around the world. This year also marks the 60th anniversary of the UN General Assembly's adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which states, "No one shall be subjected to torture."

WorldPublicOpinion.org is a collaborative project involving a worldwide network of research centers under the management of the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland.

The poll of 19,063 respondents was conducted in 19 nations, including most of the largest countries-China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Russia--as well as Mexico, Britain, France, Poland, Spain, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Egypt, the Palestinian territories, Iran, Turkey, Thailand and South Korea. The nations included represent 60 percent of the world population. The survey was fielded between January 10 and May 6. Margins of error range from +/-2 to 4 percent. The primary funder of this project is the Oak Foundation.

All of the countries polled are signatories to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and parties to the Geneva Conventions forbidding torture and other forms of abuse. All but three have also ratified the 1987 UN Convention against Torture. India has signed but not ratified the convention, while Iran has not signed it. The Palestinian territories are not eligible to be a party to the agreement.

The survey presented respondents with an argument in favor of allowing the torture of potential terrorists who threaten civilians: "Terrorists pose such an extreme threat that governments should now be allowed to use some degree of torture if it may gain information that would save innocent lives." In fourteen nations, a majority or plurality rejected this argument in favor of the unequivocal view: "Clear rules against torture should be maintained because any use of torture is immoral and will weaken international human rights standards against torture."

Those who favored an exception for terrorists were also asked whether government should generally be allowed to use torture. On average across all nations polled, just 9 percent say there should be no rules against torture. China and Turkey have the largest percentages (18% in both) who believe governments should generally be allowed to torture while France and Great Britain (4% in both) have the lowest.

Trends

In a June-July 2006 poll conducted for the BBC World Service by GlobeScan and PIPA, 15 of the 19 nations polled in the present study were asked the same question about making an exception to rules against torture in the case of terrorists. While there has been little change on average, there have been some dramatic shifts in specific countries.

60 Only India had even a modest plurality favoring an exception for terrorists in 2006. In the current survey three countries (India, Nigeria, and Turkey) have a majority supporting such exceptions, Thailand has a plurality and South Korea is divided.

Four countries included in both surveys show dramatic increases in support for allowing the torture of terrorists: India (from 32% to 59%), Nigeria (39% to 54%), Turkey (24% to 51%), and South Korea (31% to 51%). Substantial increases also occurred in Egypt (25% to 46%) and the United States (36% to 44%).

At the same time there have been equally dramatic increases among those favoring a complete ban on torture. Support has grown substantially in Mexico (rising from 50% to 73%), Spain (65% to 82%), China (49% to 66%), Indonesia (51% to 61%), Britain (72% to 82%), and Russia (43% to 49%).

On average, support for an exception has gone up six points while support for an unequivocal rule has gone up two points. Thus the net increase in favor of an exception is just four points.

Why has support for allowing the torture of potential terrorists increased in certain countries since 2006? Civilians from three of the six have suffered terrorist attacks over the past year and a half: India has endured attacks attributed to Kashmiri separatists and Turkey has been plagued by Kurdish rebels. South Koreans underwent a six-week hostage drama in July and August 2007 after Taliban rebels in Afghanistan kidnapped 23 Christian volunteers and then executed two of them. And the US public receives a steady stream of news reports about terrorist attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Of the six countries with largest jumps in support for an unequivocal rule against torture, four (Spain, Britain, Indonesia and Russia) suffered major terrorist attacks before the 2006 poll but have not suffered major attacks since then.

July 3, 2008

In More Religious Countries, Lower Suicide Rates

Lower suicide rates not a matter of national income

Gallup Polls from 2005 and 2006 show that countries that are more religious tend to have lower suicide rates.

61 62 The 2005 and 2006 Gallup Polls asked respondents whether religion was an important part of their daily lives, if they had attended a place of worship in the week prior to polling, and whether they had confidence in religious organizations in their countries. The Gallup Religiosity Index reflects the percentage of positive responses to these three items. A nation's index score speaks to that nation's overall level of religiosity.

Comparing the Religiosity Index scores of different countries with suicide statistics published in 2007 by the World Health Organization reveals a clear pattern: Countries that are more religious tend to have lower suicide rates. For example, whereas the Philippines has one of the world's highest religiosity scores (79), Japan has one of the world's lowest scores (29). Suicide rates in the Philippines are almost 12 times lower than rates in Japan. Paraguayans, who are much more religious than Uruguayans are, also have suicide rates four and a half times lower than in Uruguay. The United States falls near the middle of the international pack in religiosity, at 61. The United States also falls near the middle of the international pack in suicide rates, having the 32nd highest suicide rate out of 67 countries.

Because recent suicide data were unavailable for many countries, it was not possible to extend this analysis to include more than 67 countries. Despite this limitation, the suicide-religiosity association does not seem to be restricted to any specific set of countries. For example, for the 12 former Soviet Union countries that data were available for, the suicide-religiosity association was even stronger than for the sample as a whole. Most notably, Armenia, Georgia, and Tajikistan have relatively high religiosity scores, especially in comparison with other former Soviet Union countries. All three countries also have low suicide rates. Tajikistan is also notable as one of the few countries in the sample with a substantial Muslim population (Kazakhstan is another). Tajikistan's Religiosity Index score is higher than Kazakhstan's, and suicide rates in Tajikistan are lower than Kazakhstan's rates.

Does religiosity per se truly affect suicide rates? Countries that differ in religiosity often differ in other ways. For example, these same data showed that less religious countries are usually wealthier (e.g., have a higher GDP per capita) than more religious countries. Further, these data showed that suicide rates are also slightly higher in wealthier countries. However, the relation between GDP and suicide is not nearly as strong as the relation between religiosity and suicide. Thus, national wealth cannot explain the connection between religiosity and suicide. Another concern is that countries that are more religious might tend to underreport suicides -- because of subpar medical documentation, or the added social stigma suicide carries in countries that are more religious. However, an analysis focusing only on wealthy countries, where documentation of suicide is likely to be excellent, still reveals a robust association between religiosity and national suicide rates.

A final hypothesis is that greater social capital (collective commitment to social well- being) in more religious countries could be responsible for the lower suicide rates observed in these countries. However, if greater social capital explained why higher religiosity is associated with less suicide, one would probably expect to see lower

63 homicide rates in more religious countries. In these data, however, homicide rates were actually somewhat higher in countries that are more religious.

Do these country-level findings translate into the behavior of individual people? Large- scale studies of individual respondents suggest so. In 2002, statistician Sterling Hilton and colleagues showed that among young men who were actively involved in the Mormon church, suicide rates were three to five times lower than those of either non- members or less active church members. Moreover, in a review of 42 studies of religiosity and mortality, Michael McCullough and associates showed that, compared with less religious people, highly religious people are slightly less prone to mortality from several specific causes, including suicide. Finally, recent respondent level data from other Gallup Polls show that religious people are much less likely than the general public to believe that suicide is "morally acceptable." Perhaps the most extreme example of this comes from France, where 40% of the general population but only 4% of Muslims living in Paris consider suicide morally acceptable.

It is thus possible that religion serves as an antidote to the lack of purpose that can make a desperate act such as suicide seem appealing. Believing in something bigger than oneself may allow some people to hold onto life in a world where people without such a belief sometimes give up all hope. Another possibility is that some religious people may believe that committing suicide jeopardizes their security in an afterlife. Alternately, the human connections that people typically forge in religious groups may serve as a buffer against suicide. Whatever the reason for the religion-suicide link, these results suggest that leaders who wish to understand the well-being of a country must look beyond traditional economic indicators. When it comes to well-being, spiritual concerns may be at least as important as economic ones.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews conducted in 2006 with approximately 1,000 adults per country. For all of the countries reported here, confidence intervals for mean Religiosity Index scores were within + 3 percentage points from the national percentages shown here. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 17, 2008

Young Arabs Poised to Maximize Their Potential

But just 23% say now is a good time to find a job in their communities

Gallup asked respondents aged 15 to 29 in predominantly Arab countries as well as France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States to evaluate their life satisfaction using a "ladder" scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where "0" indicates the worst possible life and "10" the best possible life. Gallup specifically asked respondents which steps they stood on five years ago, where they stand now, and where they expect to stand five years from now and calculated mean scores to show average standing.

Across 11 countries in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, respondents' mean rating of their lives five years ago is 4.9 and 5.2 for their present situation. But when asked about where they expect to be five years from now, respondents report a mean score of 6.6. In many Arab countries, respondents rate their present lives higher than their past, except in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon (the poll was conducted a few weeks after the 2006 conflict between Hezbollah and Israel), the Palestinian Territories, and Yemen. It is

65 important to note that the Kuwait and United Arab Emirates (UAE) samples include nationals and non-nationals.

Comparisons of ratings of current personal standing across countries range from a mean of 4.4 among young Palestinians to 7.2 among Saudi respondents. And looking ahead five years, the mean scores for Palestinian (6.0) and Yemeni (6.1) respondents suggest they are the least optimistic of those surveyed, while respondents from the UAE (mean of 8.2) are the most optimistic.

Although results from the ladder question show that Arab respondents' rate their past, present, and future life satisfaction lower than do young respondents in Western countries surveyed, respondents from the MENA region express similar, and in some cases, higher levels of hope of a better life, as measured by the difference between future and current standings.

Interestingly, young Saudis and Americans express similar levels of hope that their lives will improve in the future, with differences between future and current standings of 0.69 and 0.65, respectively. In all other MENA countries included in the poll, young Arabs express more hope for a better life than young Americans do. Furthermore, young respondents in Algeria and Kuwait express as much hope for the future as young Britons. Even in Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, and Yemen, youths' stash of hope for a better life tops that expressed by young American, French, and German respondents.

But when asked about economic opportunities, young Arabs paint a bleak picture. Across all MENA countries surveyed, a median of just 23% of young respondents believe that now is a good time to find a job in their local communities. In the United States and the United Kingdom, almost 6 in 10 say now is a good to find a job, but in France and Germany, 14% and 22%, respectively, say the same.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with at least 350 adults, aged 15 and older, in Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, the Palestinian Territories, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen from June 2006 to September 2007. In the United States, the poll was conducted with 302 adults, aged 15 and older, in August 2007. In France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, the polls were conducted with at least 240 people, aged 15 and older, in December 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

66 Business and Politics in The Mulsim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report M. Zubair Week July 07-13, 2008 Presentation: July 15, 2008 Introduction 02 Summary of Polls 04 Middle East Israelis Would Prefer McCain in White House 07 Israelis Assess Benefits of Truce with Hamas 07 West Europe Germans Clearly Back Obama in U.S. Ballot 09 Germans Support Ending Nuclear Energy Era 09 Britons Support Introduction of Green Taxes 10 East Europe Fewer Poles Oppose U.S. Missile Shield 11 North America Omar Khadr Trial Still Splits Canadians 12 More Canadians Oppose Afghanistan Extension 14 More Americans Say U.S. a Nation of Haves and Have-Nots 15 Fewer Americans Favor Cutting Back Immigration 20 Public Wants Congress to Approve Military Action, Bombings 26 East Asia South Koreans Want Street Protests to End 30 Mongolia’s Disputed Election Underscores Public Distrust 31 Most Japanese Say Economy Getting Worse 34 Global Polls World Poll Finds Global Leadership Vacuum 37 Iranians, Egyptians, Turks: Contrasting Views on Sharia 49 Istanbul Attack Underscores Poor U.S. Image 51

67 Introduction

This week report consists of 17 surveys from around the world. Of these, seven surveys are of global significance while ten are of national significance for their respective countries.

Political issues

As we have seen for almost a year that lack of leadership is being felt across continents, a worldpubicopinion.org poll testifies to this trend. A 20 nation’s survey around the world finds that none of the national leaders on the world stage inspire wide confidence. While US President George W. Bush is one of the least trusted leaders, no other leader-- including China's Hu Jintao and Russia's Vladimir Putin--has gained a broad international base of support.

Only UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon received largely positive ratings in a worldwide poll that asked respondents whether they trusted international leaders "to do the right thing regarding world affairs."

Sixteen of the 20 publics surveyed say they lack confidence in US President George W. Bush. Only Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf is rated negatively in more nations. Just two countries (Nigeria and India) give Bush positive ratings while a third (Thailand) is divided. Bush also got the highest average percentage of negative ratings (67%).

"While the worldwide mistrust of George Bush has created a global leadership vacuum, no alternative leader has stepped into the breach," said Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org. "Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin are popular among some nations, but more mistrust them than trust them. Also the nations that trust them are not organized into any clusters that have the potential to be a meaningful bloc."

The distrust in Middle East continues as almost half of Israelis think the truce between Israel and Hamas brokered by Egyptian President is not good for Israel. Forty eight per cent of Israelis hold this view while 45 per cent think it is good for their country.

Presidential race continues in U.S. with Obama maintaining slight lead over McCain. In the previous months surveys of different European and Asian countries showed that publics in these countries would also back Obama if they were given the right to vote in U.S. Presidential election. Last week met an aberration in this trend. About half of Israelis would vote for McCain against just 22 per cent who would vote for Obama. This seems to be recognition of Republican policies towards Middle East.

68 Americans have been expressing such views of intrusive policies and making executive more responsible especially regarding military actions ever since the commencement of Iraq war. Last week Gallup survey finds that an overwhelming 79% majority of Americans believe the president should get the approval of Congress before sending U.S. armed forces into action outside the United States.

Opposition to Canadian Afghan mission is on the rise in Canada as more Canadian citizens criticize the government for extending the stay of mission in Afghanistan. In general the opposition to missions in Afghanistan and Iraq is mounting among the allied countries publics.

Economic Issues

The public’s concerns about their country’s economic recession are now becoming widespread. After United States, Canada, Myanmar, Pakistan, Indonesia now Japanese also are worried about the economic recession. A two third majority in Japan says the economy is getting worse.

Social Issue

Among the social issues environmental problem is getting more attention of the publics. The degree of awareness is increasing and as a result publics in more countries are now willing to address the issue. A large majority of people in Britain would be willing to pay so-called green taxes. 63 per cent of respondents support the introduction of taxes designed to discourage things that are harmful to the environment, while 35 per cent oppose them.

But in Germany support for the policy of phasing out the use of Nuclear energy by 2021 to save the environmenet is decreasing. Today half of Germans support the idea compared to 58 per cent in December 2007.

A Gallup poll of Iran, Egypt and Turkey shows that Muslims views about the Sharia are somewhat different. In Egypt two third majority wants Sharia or Islamic Law to be the only source of legislation. In Iran, almost two third majority of respondents recognise the significance of Sharia as one of the sources for legislation. But in Turkey the public view is different. A small majority of 33 per cent want Sharia to be one of the sources for legislation but 41 per cent of respondents do not accept it as a source of legislation at all.

The interesting thing is that men and women views are alike in all the countries. Political systems in three of the countries are different and probably it is one of the reasons for shaping up their ideas about Sharia as well.

69 The significance of religion provides important context to understand the influence of Sharia in all three countries. In Iran, 73% of men and 78% of women say religion plays an important role in their lives, and in Egypt, virtually all men (98%) and women (99%) say the same. But even in staunchly secular Turkey, religion looms large for most individuals. Seventy-four percent of Turkish men and 72% of Turkish women tell Gallup that religion plays an important role in their lives. For many Muslims, the combination of the importance of religion and the divine foundations of Islamic religious law give Sharia legitimacy to provide checks and balances on a government's powers. Overall, the poll findings show that within each country, men and women hold similar views about Sharia. Iranians, Egyptians, and even many Turks believe religion and government can be integrated.

Summary of Polls

Middle East

Israelis Would Prefer McCain in White House

Many people in Israel think having John McCain in the White House would be beneficial for their country, according to the Peace Index Project by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University. 46 per cent of respondents think the Republican United States presidential candidate is the better option for Israel. July 13, 2008

Israelis Assess Benefits of Truce with Hamas

People in Israel are split over the ceasefire reached with the Palestinian organization Hamas, according to a poll by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University. 45 per cent of respondents think the truce between Israel and Hamas, which was brokered by the Egyptian government, is good for Israel, while 48 per cent think it is not. July 12, 2008

West Europe

Germans Clearly Back Obama in U.S. Ballot

The vast majority of people in Germany would like to see Barack Obama win this year’s presidential election in the United States, according to a poll by Emnid published in Bild am Sonntag. 72 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate if they could cast a ballot, while 11 per cent would back Republican John McCain instead.

70 July 09, 2008

Germans Support Ending Nuclear Energy Era

Germans Clearly Back Obama in U.S. Ballot

Britons Support Introduction of Green Taxes

A large majority of people in Britain would be willing to pay so-called green taxes, according to a poll by ICM Research published in The Guardian. 63 per cent of respondents support the introduction of taxes designed to discourage things that are harmful to the environment, while 35 per cent oppose them. July 08, 2008

East Europe

Fewer Poles Oppose U.S. Missile Shield

Opposition to the installation of an American radar base has dwindled in Poland, according to a poll by PBS DGA published in Gazeta Wyborcza. 46 per cent of respondents are against their country’s participation in a United States missile defence shield, down six points since February. July 12, 2008

North America

Omar Khadr Trial Still Splits Canadians

Adults in Canada are clearly divided on the pending legal process of Omar Khadr, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 38 per cent of respondents would leave Khadr to face trial by military commission in Guantanamo Bay, while 37

71 per cent demand Khadr’s repatriation to face due process under Canadian Law. July 13, 2008

More Canadians Oppose Afghanistan Extension

More adults in Canada believe the House of Commons was wrong to lengthen the country’s military mission in Afghanistan, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 58 per cent of respondents disagree with the decision to extend the mandate until the end 2011, up four points in two months. July 10, 2008

More Americans Say U.S. a Nation of Haves and Have-Nots

Gallup USA: Along with their mounting concerns about national economic conditions in recent years, Americans have grown more likely to perceive structural economic inequality in the country. Nearly half of Americans, 49%, now say the nation is divided into two groups: the "haves" and the "have-nots." This is up from 45% two years ago, and from 37% in June 2004.

July 10, 2008

Fewer Americans Favor Cutting Back Immigration

A new Gallup Poll finds 39% of Americans in favor of reductions in immigration, down from 45% a year ago. Currently, the public is just as likely to favor maintaining the status quo on immigration as it is to favor a decrease. Only a relatively small minority of 18% of Americans believe immigration levels should be increased.

July 10, 2008

Public Wants Congress to Approve Military Action, Bombings

An overwhelming 79% majority of Americans believe the president should get the approval of Congress before sending U.S. armed forces into action outside the United States, and 70% believe congressional approval should be required before the president decides to bomb suspected terrorists.

July 07, 2008

East Asia

South Koreans Want Street Protests to End

The majority of people in South Korea think street protests against a decision to allow American beef imports should stop, according to a poll by Gallup Korea

72 published in Chosun Ilbo. 57.2 per cent of respondents agree with this view, while 37.9 per cent think the demonstrations should continue. July 07, 2008

Mongolia’s Disputed Election Underscores Public Distrust

Rioting over alleged election fraud last week in Mongolia's capital highlights Mongolians' lack of faith in the honesty of their elections. A Gallup Poll in the East-Central Asian country last year showed only 21% of residents express trust in their electoral process.

July 08, 2008

Most Japanese Say Economy Getting Worse

With a potential economic slowdown on their country's horizon, Gallup Polls show Japanese consumer pessimism increased sharply from 45% in August 2007 to 66% in March 2008.

July 07, 2008

Global Polls

World Poll Finds Global Leadership Vacuum

A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 20 nations around the world finds that none of the national leaders on the world stage inspire wide confidence. While US President George W. Bush is one of the least trusted leaders, no other leader-- including China's Hu Jintao and Russia's Vladimir Putin--has gained a broad international base of support.

June 16, 2008

Iranians, Egyptians, Turks: Contrasting Views on Sharia

A Gallup Poll conducted in Iran in 2007 shows a majority of residents think that Sharia, the body of Islamic rules and principles that informs a Muslim's life, should have some influence on legislation. However, Egyptians and Turks surveyed offer strikingly contrasting views.

July 10, 2008

Istanbul Attack Underscores Poor U.S. Image

Motives behind the attack on the U.S. consulate Wednesday in Istanbul, Turkey, are still unknown, but the terrorist act, allegedly carried out by several Turkish

73 nationals, emphasizes the negative image U.S. leadership has in Turkey and elsewhere around the globe.

July 11, 2008

Middle East

Israelis Would Prefer McCain in White House

July 13, 2008

Conversely, 20 per cent of respondents think Democratic candidate Barack Obama would help Israel more if elected to the White House this year, and 25 per cent are undecided.

McCain has become the presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee in 2008, while Obama clinched the Democratic Party’s nomination on Jun. 3. The presidential election in the U.S. is scheduled for Nov. 4.

On Jul. 9, both presidential candidates condemned the Iranian government for testing a long-range missile that is technically capable of reaching Israel. Obama said Iran "must suffer threats of economic sanctions with direct diplomacy opening up channels of communication so we avoid provocation, but we give strong incentives for the Iranians to change their behaviour." McCain declared: "Iran’s most recent missile tests demonstrate again the dangers it poses to its neighbours and to the wider region, especially Israel."

Polling Data

Which of the two United States presidential candidares would be better for Israel?

John McCain (R) 46%

Barack Obama (D) 20%

No difference 9%

74 Not sure 25%

Source: Peace Index Project / Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research / Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University Methodology: Telephone interviews with 590 Israeli adults, conducted on Jun. 30 and Jul. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Israelis Assess Benefits of Truce with Hamas

July 12, 2008

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Palestinian Authority leader and Fatah member Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister.

In May, Israeli and Palestinian delegates began to negotiate a ceasefire in Egypt. On Jun. 17, Egypt announced that a "calm agreement" had been reached between Israel and Hamas. The deal took effect on Jun. 19, and entails Gaza’s Hamas rulers halting rocket and mortar fire on Israeli border communities, while Israel is to increase the flow of goods into Gaza.

On Jul. 7, a comment by Mohammed Nazzal, a senior member of Hamas, suggested that the truce deal is fragile. Nazzal declared: "The truce is not sacred. We are not obliged to continue with the truce if the Israelis don’t respect it."

Polling Data

75 Do you think the Egyptian-mediated "truce" between Israel and Hamas is good for Israel?

Yes 45%

No 48%

Not sure 7%

West Europe

Germans Clearly Back Obama in U.S. Ballot

July 09, 2008

McCain has become the presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee in 2008, while Obama clinched the Democratic Party’s nomination on Jun. 3.

Obama is expected to visit Germany and give a speech in Berlin’s historical Brandenburg Gate on Jul. 24. Yesterday, Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit confirmed that the Democratic candidate will be able to deliver his talk on the site, saying, "The mayor would be pleased if he used the occasion of a visit to the Brandenburg Gate to convey a message."

U.S. president George W. Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If you could, who would you vote for in the United States presidential election?

Barack Obama (D) 72%

76 John McCain (R) 11%

Other / Not sure 17%

Source: Emnid / Bild am Sonntag Methodology: Interviews with 501 German adults, conducted on Jul. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Germans Support Ending Nuclear Energy Era

July 12, 2008

Fewer people in Germany agree with the official policy that would phase out the use of nuclear energy in the European country by 2021, according to a poll by Infratest-Dimap. 51 per cent of respondents agree with this view, down seven points since last December. In November 2005, Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) leader Angela Merkel was sworn in as Germany’s first female head of government. The current administration includes members of the CDU, the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU), and the Social Democratic Party (SPD).

After the 1998 federal election, the coalition government formed by the SPD and the Greens agreed to gradually phase-out nuclear energy in Germany. Gerhard Schroeder was federal chancellor at the time. In 2001, an agreement established a limit of 32 years to the operational lives of Germany’s atomic reactors, but deferred any immediate closures.

Last month, Merkel said the decision to phase-out nuclear energy was "absolutely wrong," and expressed her support for re-developing the nuclear industry in order to stem pollution. However, the current coalition government has decided to maintain Schroeder’s policy for now.

On Jul. 7, Merkel ratified her views, adding, "The decision that many countries count on nuclear power is OK. But to say that the future for climate change and careful use of energy can be solved by that alone—I don’t see it that way."

Polling Data

Do you think Germany should go ahead with the decision to gradually phase-out nuclear energy?

77 Jul. 2008 Dec. 2007

Yes 51% 58%

No 44% 36%

Source: Infratest-Dimap Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 German voters, conducted on Jun. 30 and Jul. 1, 2007. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Britons Support Introduction of Green Taxes

July 07, 2008

In March, British chancellor of the exchequer Alistair Darling unveiled the 2008 budget, which introduced a series of fiscal measures related to the environment. Darling announced that, starting in 2009, a new system of taxation will aim at encouraging the production of small cars. Vehicles with large engines and old engines will have higher taxes, while companies producing environmentally-friendly cars will get tax cuts. Darling also said a planned increase on fuel taxes would not be implemented for another six months due to increasing oil prices.

Darling also warned that legislation restricting the use of plastic bags would be introduced in 2009 unless the industry makes "sufficient progress on a voluntary basis" by the end of this year. The budget also included a fund of close to $52.8 million U.S. to help households reduce their carbon emissions.

On Jul. 3, Brown suggested that a plan to impose a levy on fuel starting in October might be scrapped due to the rising price of fuel in the international market. Darling appeared to

78 confirm the prime minister’s words when he rejected calls to scrap the used-car levy as well, saying, "I think the bigger question for motorists, frankly, is the fuel duty. That’s something you pay every week, not once a year, and that is something that we in government are very focused upon."

Polling Data

Generally speaking would you support or oppose the introduction of green taxes, designed to discourage things that are harmful to the environment?

Support 63%

Oppose 35%

Not sure 2%

Source: ICM Research / The Guardian

Methodology: Interviews with 1,002 British adults, conducted from Jun. 27 to Jun. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

East Europe

Fewer Poles Oppose U.S. Missile Shield

July 12, 2008

In December 2002, U.S. president George W. Bush announced plans for the development of initial defence capabilities, which include ground-based and sea-based missile interceptors, as well as sensors located in space. Washington has explained the project as a means to defend the U.S. and its European allies from a potential attack by Iran or North Korea.

In January 2007, the U.S. issued a formal request to place a radar base in the Czech Republic—in a military area southwest of Prague—as well as 10 interceptor missiles in Poland.

79 Some countries doubt that Iran could actually represent a danger for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and fear the missile-defence shield could eventually become a threat to other nations instead—including Russia.

On Jul. 8, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her Czech counterpart Karel Schwarzenberg signed the treaty to station the radar base on Czech soil. The deal has not been ratified by the Czech legislature.

Schwarzenberg expressed satisfaction with the deal, saying, "This treaty will not only increase security of the Czech Republic but also of Europe and beyond"

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose Poland’s participation in the U.S. missile defence shield?

Jun. 2008 Feb. 2008

Support 42% 33%

Oppose 46% 52%

Not sure 12% 15%

Source: PBS DGA / Gazeta Wyborcza

Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Polish adults, conducted in June 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.

North America

Omar Khadr Trial Still Splits Canadians

July 13, 2008

80 Omar Khadr—a Canadian born in Toronto and the son of al-Qaeda fighter Ahmed Said Khadr—was detained by the United States military in Afghanistan in July 2002, after allegedly throwing a grenade that killed a special forces medic. Omar Khadr was 15 at the time.

In June 2007, U.S. military judge Peter Brownback dismissed the charges of murder and terrorism against Omar Khadr, claiming he was authorized to try "unlawful enemy combatants" exclusively. An earlier review had deemed Omar Khadr was an "enemy combatant." However, the case against Omar Khadr was reopened in September 2007, when the new Court of Military Commission Review ruled that Brownback’s decision was in error.

In April, William Kuebler—Khadr’s military lawyer—argued during a pre-trial hearing that the deadly grenade may have been thrown by an American soldier.

Earlier this month, a report revealed that Canadian officials were aware of the harsh treatment that Khadr was subjected to in Guantanamo. According to the document, the U.S. military "deprived" Khadr of sleep for weeks in order to make him "more amenable and willing to talk."

Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper discussed the situation but ruled out any change in policy, saying, "The previous [Liberal Party] government took a (...) all of the information into account when they made the decision on how to proceed with the Khadr case several years ago. Canada has sought assurances that Mr. Khadr, under our government, will be treated humanely. We are monitoring those legal processes very carefully."

Khadr’s military trial is expected to start on Oct. 8.

Polling Data

As you may know, Canadian citizen Omar Khadr has spent almost six years in the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, charged with throwing a grenade that killed a U.S. soldier in a July 2002 firefight in Afghanistan. Khadr, the son of al-Qaeda fighter Ahmed Said Khadr, was 15 when the alleged incident took place. Which of these policy options would you prefer in this case?

Jun. Apr.

2008 2008

Leaving Khadr to face trial by military commission in 38% 38% Guantanamo Bay

81 Demanding Khadr’s repatriation to face due process under 37% 43% Canadian Law

Not sure 26% 19%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies Methodology: Online interviews with 1,004 Canadian adults, conducted on Jul. 2 and Jul. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

More Canadians Oppose Afghanistan Extension

July 09, 2008

Afghanistan has been the main battleground in the war on terrorism. The conflict began in October 2001, after the Taliban regime refused to hand over Osama bin Laden, prime suspect in the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Al-Qaeda operatives hijacked and crashed four airplanes on Sept. 11, 2001, killing nearly 3,000 people.

At least 866 soldiers—including 86 Canadians—have died in the war on terrorism, either in support of the U.S.-led Operation Enduring Freedom or as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party— led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party.

In May 2006, the House of Commons extended Canada’s mission in Afghanistan until February 2009. In March 2008, the House of Commons voted 198-77 to prolong the military deployment until the end of 2011. The Conservative and Liberal parties supported the motion, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois opposed it.

On Jul. 7, Afghanistan’s ambassador to Canada Omar Samad discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "This is what we’re facing today—an escalation. I think the upcoming year is going to be treacherous and dangerous for all of us involved with bringing peace and stability to Afghanistan."

Polling Data

As you may know, the House of Commons has authorized an extension of Canada’s mission in Afghanistan until the end of 2011, which is conditional on Canada coming up with unmanned aerial vehicles and transport helicopters, and NATO providing an additional 1,000 troops in the south. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to extend Canada’s mission in Afghanistan until the end of 2011?

Jul. 2008 May 2008 Mar. 2008

Agree 36% 41% 37%

Disagree 58% 54% 58%

Not sure 6% 6% 5%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies

Methodology: Online interviews with 1,004 Canadian adults, conducted on Jul. 2 and Jul. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Other poll highlights:

53% say Canadian mission in Afghanistan is a war mission 28% believe the Harper government has effectively explained the mission in Afghanistan 73% think Canada is shouldering too much of the burden of NATO’s mission in Afghanistan 59% claim the Afghan people are clearly benefiting from Canadian efforts in their country 35% would agree with the Canadian government actively negotiating with the Taliban

July 11, 2008

More Americans Say U.S. a Nation of Haves and Have-Nots

Half now say it is, up from 37% four years ago

Along with their mounting concerns about national economic conditions in recent years, Americans have grown more likely to perceive structural economic inequality in the

83 country. Nearly half of Americans, 49%, now say the nation is divided into two groups: the "haves" and the "have-nots." This is up from 45% two years ago, and from 37% in June 2004.

The perception of an unequal society has risen at an especially sharp rate among blacks and Hispanics, although non-Hispanic whites are also more likely to perceive a haves/have-nots division today than they were four years ago. Nearly three-quarters of blacks (72%) and close to half of Hispanics (49%) and whites (45%) now believe the nation is divided along have/have-not lines.

These results are from Gallup's annual Minority Rights and Relations survey, conducted each June. The 2008 survey includes nationally representative interviews with 1,935 adults, including more than 700 non-Hispanic whites, more than 600 blacks, and more than 500 Hispanics, all weighted to represent their correct proportions in the population.

At the same time that more Americans see an economic class divide in the country, the percentage of Americans holding a profoundly negative view of the U.S. economy has jumped sharply, from 41% in June 2004 to 55% in June 2006 to 84% in June 2008.

Majority Still Identify Themselves as "Haves"

Despite their heightened sense that America is a land of the haves and have-nots, Americans have not changed the way they categorize themselves along the same lines. Since 2004, the percentage of Americans identifying themselves as a member of the "haves" in Gallup polling has registered just under 60%, while about a third have consistently considered themselves "have-nots." (An additional 8% to 12% don't put themselves in either group.)

There are no meaningful differences among Americans of different household income levels in their perceptions of whether the country is divided into the haves and have-nots. High-, medium-, and low-income groups are all about evenly split on the question.

However, as expected, there is a high correlation between self-identification as a have or have-not and one's household income. About three-quarters of high-income Americans (those making $75,000 or more annually) call themselves "haves," compared with a much smaller majority of middle-income households (those earning between $30,000 and $50,000), and only 33% of the lowest income group (those making less than $20,000).

Non-Hispanic whites are more than twice as likely to call themselves haves as have-nots (64% vs. 26%). This contrasts with blacks and Hispanics, who are about evenly divided in their self-descriptions. None of these findings by race/ethnicity has changed much in recent years.

87 Perhaps most interesting is that even at comparable income levels, middle- and upper- income blacks and Hispanics are less likely than whites to consider themselves "haves."

Among those earning between $30,000 and $74,999 per year, 63% of whites, but only 48% of blacks and 47% of Hispanics, classify themselves as "haves."

Similarly, among those earning $75,000 or more, fully 80% of whites, compared with 66% of blacks and 65% of Hispanics, call themselves "haves."

Implications

The fact that recent economic events -- such as the mortgage crisis, surging energy prices, and rising food costs -- are hitting some Americans harder than others may partly explain why more Americans in 2008 than four years ago believe the nation is divided into the haves and the have-nots.

But economics may not tell the whole story. Blacks and Hispanics -- even those living in high-income households -- lag significantly behind whites in believing they are among the nation's "haves." Beyond financial issues, these groups may be more likely today than four years ago to perceive that certain obstacles stand in the way of members of their own racial and ethnic groups' ability to break into the advantaged class.

88 Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,935 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 5-July 6, 2008, including oversamples of blacks and Hispanics that are weighted to reflect their proportions in the general population. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on sample of 702 non-Hispanic whites, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on sample of 608 non-Hispanic blacks, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on sample of 502 Hispanics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points (120 out of the 502 interviews with Hispanics were conducted in Spanish).

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Fewer Americans Favor Cutting Back Immigration

Public as likely to favor status quo as to favor decreased immigration

July 10, 2008

These results are based on Gallup's annual Minority Rights and Relations survey, conducted June 5-July 6 of this year, and consisting of interviews with more than 1,900 adults nationwide, including large samples of U.S. blacks and Hispanics. The poll sample is weighted to be representative of the entire U.S. adult population.

During much of this decade, a plurality if not a majority of Americans have favored cutbacks in immigration, reaching as high as 58% shortly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. But the current percentage in favor of reduced immigration levels is within a percentage point of the lowest Gallup has measured in the last 20 years or so (a 38% reading in 2000; the all-time low was 33% way back in 1965). In 2006, 39% also favored decreased immigration.

The post-9/11 reading was not the historical high point in calls for reduced immigration -- in the mid-1990s, roughly two in three Americans wanted to see less immigration during a backlash against immigrants symbolized by California's Proposition 187, which denied government benefits to illegal immigrants.

The apparent softening on immigration is also evident in the fact that 64% of Americans now say immigration is a good thing for the country today, up from 60% last year, and the second highest reading in the now eight-year history of the Minority Rights and Relations survey.

One reason anti-immigration opinion has diminished somewhat may be that immigration has receded as an issue this year as Americans have focused on the struggling economy and record-high gas prices. In a June Gallup Poll, just 4% named immigration as the most important problem facing the country, down from 11% at the beginning of the year. Also, in June, just 27% of Americans said illegal immigration would be an extremely important issue to their vote for president this year, ranking it dead last of eight issues tested.

President Bush and Congress failed in their attempt to pass comprehensive immigration reform last year, and the issue has been put on the shelf during this presidential election year.

Immigration and the Economy

The poll finds that Americans have mixed views on some of the precise effects of immigration on the economy. On the one hand, by a 2-to-1 margin, the public says immigrants cost taxpayers too much by using government services as opposed to becoming productive citizens who pay their fair share of taxes. Those views are essentially unchanged from 2006.

But, on the other hand, Americans by an even wider margin see some economic benefit from the standpoint that illegal immigrants tend to take low-paying jobs that Americans don't want (79%) as opposed to taking away jobs that would otherwise go to Americans (15%). Again, these sentiments have not changed materially since 2006.

92 Immigration Attitudes by Subgroup

Of the major U.S. racial and ethnic groups, Hispanics tend to be the most supportive of immigration. This is not surprising given that nearly half of the Hispanics in the poll are themselves U.S. immigrants. Only 28% of Hispanics favor decreased immigration, compared with 39% of blacks and 42% of whites.

Additionally, 70% of Hispanics say immigration is good for the country today, compared with 62% of whites and 57% of blacks.

Hispanics also break with most other Americans in rejecting the notion that illegal immigrants are a drain on taxpayer resources. Whereas solid majorities of blacks (62%) and whites (71%) believe that illegal immigrants cost taxpayers too much money, only 30% of Hispanics agree. Nearly two in three Hispanics hold the view that illegal immigrants become productive citizens who pay their fair share of taxes.

As expected, there are political differences in attitudes toward immigration, but these tend to be stronger according to one's ideological inclination than by political party affiliation. A majority of self-identified conservatives believe immigration levels should be reduced, but only 30% of liberals agree. Close to half of liberals favor keeping the status quo.

Liberals are much more likely than conservatives to say immigration has been good for the country, and to believe that immigrants eventually become productive citizens and pay their fair share of taxes.

Implications

As the illegal immigration issue has faded from the public consciousness, Americans have become somewhat less likely to take anti-immigration stances. It is unclear at this point whether that means the public is coming to terms with the immigration issue and the complexities in dealing with illegal immigrants living in the United States, or whether the public might become somewhat less tolerant of it should the public's elected leaders take up the issue again.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,935 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 5-July 6, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

95 For results based on the sample of 702 non-Hispanic whites, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 608 non-Hispanic blacks, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 502 Hispanics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points (120 of the 502 interviews with Hispanics were conducted in Spanish).

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 7, 2008

Public Wants Congress to Approve Military Action, Bombings

As was case in 1973, Americans want president to get congressional approval

According to Gallup trends, there has been little change over the last 35 years in the basic sentiment that the president needs congressional approval before sending U.S. troops into combat overseas.

The year 1973 was significant in the history of debate over presidential war powers. That year, U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War was drawing to a close and Congress acted in an attempt to bring clarity to the war powers issue -- enacting over President Nixon's veto the War Powers Act of 1973, which said, in part: "The President, in every possible instance, shall consult with Congress before introducing United States Armed Forces into hostilities or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and after every such introduction shall consult regularly with the Congress until United States Armed Forces are no longer engaged in hostilities or have been removed from such situations."

At that time, Congress was clearly reflecting the will of the people. Eighty percent of Americans in a November 1973 Gallup Poll agreed that Congress needed to give its stamp of approval before the president committed U.S. troops into action on foreign soil.

Now, some 35 years later, as the United States is involved in another drawn-out war, the percentage of Americans agreeing with this sentiment is almost exactly the same, at 79%.

What the U.S. Constitution's framers intended in terms of the war powers of the governmental branches and how exactly the nation should react in today's changed and fast-moving international environment continue to be a matter of dispute. This complexity led to the formation of a National War Powers Commission in 2007, created to review relevant legal and historical issues and, ultimately, to make a recommendation on how the executive and legislative branches should approach war situations. (The

98 commission, headed by two former secretaries of state, James Baker and Warren Christopher, is set to make its final report Tuesday.)

The recent Gallup Poll shows that while there is some difference of opinion by partisanship on the idea that the president be required to get congressional approval, a majority of every political group agrees.

Specific Situations

The current poll asked Americans about the necessity for the president to gain the approval of Congress before sending U.S. armed forces into action in five specific situations.

There is significant variation across these hypothetical situations. Half or more of Americans do not believe the president needs to get congressional approval before committing U.S. forces into action if the United States is attacked, if American citizens are in danger or in need of rescue abroad, or in order to conduct a humanitarian mission in response to a natural disaster.

On the other hand, there is widespread public agreement that the president needs congressional approval to send troops into action even if he or she does not think a combat operation would last a long time, and in a situation in which the president wants to use Air Force or Navy planes to bomb suspected terrorists.

Democrats are significantly more likely than Republicans to agree that the president needs congressional approval before bombing suspected terrorists. Still -- as is the case for the basic war powers question -- even a slight majority of Republicans agree that congressional approval is needed in this scenario.

100

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,017 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 8-11, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

East Asia

South Koreans Want Street Protests to End

July 07, 2008

The majority of people in South Korea think street protests against a decision to allow American beef imports should stop, according to a poll by Gallup Korea published in Chosun Ilbo. 57.2 per cent of respondents agree with this view, while 37.9 per cent think the demonstrations should continue.

101 In December 2007, Lee Myung-bak—a member of the Grand National Party (GNP) and a former mayor of Seoul—won the presidential election with 48.7 per cent of the vote. He became South Korea’s head of state on Feb. 25.

Lee faced his first major challenge in May, when his administration agreed to resume beef imports from the United States. American beef had been banned in the Asian country due to fears that it might be contaminated with mad cow disease. Critics accused Lee of ignoring a health risk by reopening the imports to secure the passing of a free trade deal with Washington that was signed in June 2007, but has not yet been ratified by the legislatures in either country.

Thousands of people protested the decision, and called for a revision of the terms of the trade deal. On May 22, Lee tried to appease public outcry over the issue, calling the concerns over the commerce agreement "groundless" and "heartbreaking." He also apologized for the way the government handled the issue.

In April, South Korean voters renewed the National Assembly. On Jun. 5, opposition parties boycotted the first session of the new legislature over the beef import issue. Street protests related to the decision have continued. On Jul. 2, South Korean auto workers went on a one-day strike to oppose what they called Lee’s "pro-business policies" and the decision to allow American beef imports.

Lee Suk-haeng, leader of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, explained the decision, saying, "This is not a political strike, but a strike that is aimed at protecting our right to health. (...) We want to live long and healthily."

Polling Data

Do you think the street protests against U.S. beef imports should end?

Yes 57.2%

No 37.9%

Not sure 4.9%

Source: Gallup Korea / Chosun Ilbo

Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,013 South Korean adults, conducted on Jun. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

102 July 8, 2008

Mongolia’s Disputed Election Underscores Public Distrust

Last year just 21% expressed faith in elections

Rioting over alleged election fraud last week in Mongolia's capital highlights Mongolians' lack of faith in the honesty of their elections. A Gallup Poll in the East- Central Asian country last year showed only 21% of residents express trust in their electoral process.

Allegations of vote rigging after an election have been the norm in Mongolia, which may partly explain why citizens exhibit so little confidence in their electoral process. Demonstrations are also common in Mongolia, but the outbreak of violence last week was extremely rare. Observers say simmering anger over unemployment, corruption, and the coalition government's deadlock over the development of the nation's resources likely roiled an already tense political situation.

Gallup's poll last year appears to confirm Mongolians' discontent in each of these areas. Only 16% of residents say now is a good time for people to find jobs in their communities. And Mongolians' have a trust deficit when it comes to their government: Nearly half said they do not have confidence in their national government, and 78% believed that corruption is endemic throughout it.

103

Bottom Line

The discontent Gallup observed in its data last year suggests many Mongolians were primed for change, but given the lack of trust in the electoral process, they may doubt whether that can be legitimately achieved. The unusual violence after last week's election underscores this suspicion, but in tandem with corruption and distrust of the government and the judiciary, it also raises questions about the future of the country's democracy.

104 Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 adults living in Mongolia, aged 15 and older, conducted in September 2007. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 7, 2008

Most Japanese Say Economy Getting Worse

Consumers also pessimistic about nation’s future

As G8 leaders meet in Japan this week to grapple with global concerns, including rising food and oil prices, Japanese consumers are offering their bleakest outlook to date on the direction of their economy and their nation. With a potential economic slowdown on their country's horizon, Gallup Polls show Japanese consumer pessimism increased sharply from 45% in August 2007 to 66% in March 2008.

105 Three years ago, Japanese consumers were riding the tide of strong economic growth and were more likely to see economic conditions as getting better than getting worse. But as global economic conditions slumped in 2007 and fuel and food prices rose, Gallup data show Japanese confidence started to falter and has only weakened since. When Japan's household spending began its three-month skid in March, two in three residents told Gallup that they thought economic conditions were getting worse.

It would appear that, at least in the short term, the pessimism Japanese expressed in March was warranted. In May, cost-pushed inflation reached a decade high, wages grew at their slowest pace in five months, and the number of jobs available hit a three-year low, all of which likely further damaged consumer sentiment. Economists are anticipating that the country's economy will continue to slow or possibly contract in coming months.

Pessimistic Japanese, Dismal Americans

Concerns about a global economic downturn and a U.S. slowdown are likely fueling Japanese consumers' fears and pessimism about their own economy, but for perspective, they remain far less pessimistic than their U.S. counterparts. It's important to note, however, that the gap between the percentage of Americans saying U.S. economic conditions are getting worse and the percentage of Japanese saying their economy is getting worse has narrowed somewhat, and their opinions appear to follow a similar trajectory.

106

Japan's Past, Present, and Future

Gallup's surveys show Japanese have also grown more pessimistic about their country's current and future standing overall, which could be troubling should the country enter an extended slowdown.

107

The decline in Japanese consumers' assessments of the state and direction of their nation may be tied to concerns about rising prices and inflation and the effects on their pocketbooks. In 2005 and 2007, more than 7 in 10 Japanese consumers said they were satisfied with their standard of living, but this dropped to slightly more than 6 in 10 in March of this year.

Bottom Line

Gallup Polls in Japan suggest the specter of a global economic downturn and rising prices appear to have shaken consumer confidence in one of the world's largest economies. If Japanese consumers continue to hurt, their pain could be felt throughout Asia -- where countries are already buckling under inflation -- and could ripple throughout the world.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 adults living in Japan, aged 15 and older, conducted in November 2005 and August 2007, and 750 adults in March 2008. For results based on the total samples of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points for a sample of 750 and ±3 percentage points for samples of 1,000. In addition to sampling

108 error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Global Polls

World Poll Finds Global Leadership Vacuum

June 16, 2008

Bush Widely Mistrusted, But No Other Leader Does Much Better

Only UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon Gets Moderately Positive Ratings

A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 20 nations around the world finds that none of the national leaders on the world stage inspire wide confidence. While US President George W. Bush is one of the least trusted leaders, no other leader--including China's Hu Jintao and Russia's Vladimir Putin--has gained a broad international base of support.

WorldPublicOpinion.org conducted the poll of 19,751 respondents in nations that comprise 60 percent of the world's population. This includes most of the largest nations--China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Russia--as well as Mexico, Argentina, Britain, France, Spain, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Turkey, the Palestinian territories, South Korea and Thailand. Fielding was conducted between January 10 and May 6. The margins of error range from +/-2 to 4 percent.

109 ratings (67%).

Although China is a rising world power, most publics do not express confidence in Chinese President Hu Jintao. Thirteen publics give Hu predominantly negative ratings while only five (Nigeria, South Korea, Iran, Azerbaijan and Ukraine) tend to be positive. India is divided. On average 44 percent of those surveyed around the world show little or no confidence in the Chinese leader; only 28 percent express some or a lot of confidence. (In all cases the leader's own public is excluded from the count of countries and the average rating.)

Vladimir Putin remains popular inside Russia as he makes the transition from president to prime minister but he has not emerged as an attractive world leader. Eleven publics have a negative view of Putin while just five are positive and three are divided. On average 32 percent express confidence in Putin--one of the highest positive ratings--but a larger 48 percent do not. No region has predominantly positive views on Putin's global leadership.

Putin appears to have become a divisive figure. Although his ratings have improved slightly since a 2007 poll by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, the large positive movement in certain countries--such as China, where Putin's ratings are up 17 points--is balanced by negative movement in others--such as the United States, where his ratings are down 21 points.

The only world leader to elicit largely positive views is UN Secretary General Ban Ki- moon. In nine nations a plurality or majority say they have some or a lot of confidence in him to do the right thing. In eight nations a plurality or majority say they have little or no confidence. Three nations are divided.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, though relatively new to the world stage, gets positive ratings in six nations, more than any other chief of state. Nonetheless, even more publics (11) say they do not trust the British leader. Two (France and Thailand) are divided.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has the poorest ratings around the world. Only in China do positive views (37%) outweigh negative ones (30%). Nigeria is divided and the other 18 nations lean negative.

110 In the Middle East publics are generally the most negative: Egyptians, Jordanians, Iranians and the Palestinians express little or no confidence in nearly all of the leaders rated.

Although France gets positive ratings in other international polls, President Nicolas Sarkozy does not. Fifteen out of 19 nations rate his international leadership unfavorably. On average, 25 percent of those surveyed express confidence in Sarkozy to do right thing while 48 percent express little or no confidence.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gets negative ratings in 13 nations, the most after Bush and Musharraf. Only three nations are slightly positive while one is divided. On average across the 17 nations (excluding Iranians) asked about Ahmadinejad, only 22 percent say they have some or a lot of confidence, while 52 percent say they have little or no confidence.

Although confidence in Ahmadinejad is up slightly from polling conducted by Pew in 2007, he is still far from being a viewed as a credible leader, even in the Muslim world. Majorities in all four Arab nations surveyed (Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian territories) say they lack confidence in Ahmadinejad. So does a majority in Turkey, including 54 percent who say they have "no confidence at all." Only in Indonesia does a bare plurality view Ahmadinejad favorably as an international leader.

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF LEADERS WITH A GLOBAL PROFILE

US President George W. Bush

US President George W. Bush has the second largest number of nations expressing negative views of his role in international affairs. Fifteen nations give negative ratings and two give positive ratings. Thailand is divided. On average 67 percent express low confidence.

The one country with a majority expressing a positive view of Bush is Nigeria with 60 percent saying they have some or a lot of confidence. Indians also lean positive (45 to 34%). Interestingly, this year Chinese views have softened (41% positive, 45%

111 negative)--with the number of those expressing positive views up 10 points since Pew's 2007 poll.

The most negative ratings come from the Middle East region. Despite the Bush administration's renewed efforts to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, nearly all Palestinians (95%) express low confidence, with 79 percent expressing "no confidence at all." Nearly as many express a lack of confidence in Egypt (92%, 68% no confidence), Jordan (88%, 84% no confidence) and Turkey (83%, 77% no confidence). Iran, interestingly, gives the mildest negative ratings in the region (80%, 72% no confidence). Nearby Azerbaijan, though, only leans negative (49% negative, 42% positive).

The two Latin American countries polled--Argentina and Mexico--are also intensely negative. In Argentina 84 percent express a lack of confidence (63% no confidence). In Mexico 83 percent express a lack of confidence (54% no confidence). Negative views have risen in Mexico since 2007 by 16 points.

European countries are only slightly less negative on President Bush. Most negative are the French: 85 percent express a lack of confidence (63% no confidence). Among the British, 77 percent give negative ratings (up 7 points from 2007), while 48 percent express no confidence at all.

Interestingly, Russians are relatively moderate with 66 percent saying they lack confidence in Bush to do the right thing and 36 percent saying they have "no confidence at all." Similarly six in ten Ukrainians lack confidence, and 36 percent have none at all.

While Indian views lean positive and Thai views are divided, those of their Asian neighbors are more negative. Majorities in Indonesia and South Korea are negative and China also leans negative, though these publics' negative views are decreasing over time.

Fifty-seven percent of Indonesians express a lack of confidence in Bush, down from 79 percent in 2007. Those expressing "no confidence at all" have dropped from 35 to 19 percent. Among South Koreans, 68 percent give Bush a poor rating, but this too is down from 73 percent in 2007. The numbers of

112 those saying they have "no confidence at all" have only inched downward from 22 to 18 percent. Among the Chinese, 45 percent lean negative, down from a majority of 51 percent. The number of those giving Bush a positive rating is up 10 points, from 31 to 41 percent.

Chinese President Hu Jintao

Among the eight global leaders assessed, opinion of Hu Jintao rests in the middle range. Thirteen countries give predominantly negative ratings while five give positive ratings and one is divided. On average, 43 percent express a lack of confidence while 28 percent express confidence. Compared to 2007 Pew polling, on average, negative views have increased a bit, but this movement represents a balance between sharp movements both to the positive and the negative among specific countries.

The country most positive about the Chinese President is Nigeria, where 58 percent express a positive view of Hu. Close behind is South Korea where 56 percent say they have confidence in him. This number is up sharply from 2007 when Pew found just 27 percent expressing such confidence.

However, this positive trend in South Korea does not reflect a broader regional trend. Positive views in Indonesia have dropped to 27 percent from 42 percent in 2007, while negative views are now 42 percent. India has held steady with divided views--32 percent express confidence, 30 percent little or none--unchanged from 2007. Thais are mildly negative (29% negative, 25% positive) but 45 percent give no opinion.

The most negative views of Hu, once again, come from the Middle East--and here these views seem to be worsening. Eighty-two percent of Palestinians have little confidence in Hu with 50 percent saying they have "no confidence at all." In Jordan and Turkey, 59 and 58 percent have negative views (52 and 53% say they have no confidence at all, respectively). Egyptians are also mostly negative (53%), but only 18 percent say they have "no confidence at all."

Compared to 2007, Jordanians and Palestinians have grown more negative concerning the Chinese President, with negative ratings rising 21 and 31 points, respectively.

A Middle Eastern country that bucks this negative trend is Iran, where a majority of 52 percent has a positive view and just 16 percent a negative view. Also, in Azerbaijan, a plurality of 37 percent has a positive view as compared to 30 percent with a negative view.

One of the most negative publics is in the United States. Seventy-nine percent lack confidence in Hu (33%, no confidence). This is up sharply from 2007 when just 46 percent had a negative view.

113 European views are moderately negative. Among the French 53 percent do not have confidence in Hu (18% do)--down from 70 percent in 2007. In Britain, 48 percent are negative (up from 39 percent in 2007) while 29 percent are positive.

Russians lean negative (31 to 21%), but 47 percent do not answer. In 2007 Russians leaned slightly positive with similar numbers not answering. In Ukraine an overwhelming two-thirds do not provide an answer; the few that do lean positive (20 to 13%). In 2007, similar numbers did not answer and views were more evenly divided.

Views lean negative in Mexico and Argentina. Argentines are 38 percent negative and 19 percent positive. Mexicans are 44 negative and 34 percent positive, but in Mexico positive views are up 16 points from 2007.

Russian Leader Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin--President at the time of the polling, now Prime Minister--receives ratings comparable to the other European leaders in the poll. Eleven countries have a negative view of Putin, five have a positive view and two are divided. On average, 32 percent express confidence, while 48 percent do not.

Among the sixteen countries also polled by Pew in 2007, Putin's overall ratings are up four points. But this upward trend is the product of a balance between countries that have had large increases in positive views--such as China, where Putin's ratings are up 17 points--and those with large increases in negative views.--such as the United States, where his ratings are down 21 points.

Some of Putin's most positive ratings are found in Asia. The most upbeat country is China, where 75 percent express some or a lot of confidence (up from 58% in 2007). Also notably positive is South Korea, where a majority now expresses confidence in Putin (54%, up from 24%)--due perhaps in part to Russia's role in negotiations with North Korea. India also leans positive (44 to 18 %).

114 However, Indonesians lean negative: just 23 percent express confidence and 46 percent, a lack of confidence. Thais are divided (26% positive, 26% negative, 47% no opinion)

Among Russia's more immediate neighbors, Ukraine has a majority expressing confidence in Putin (59%). The minority with negative views (20%) is down 13 points from 2007. Azerbaijan is divided--45 percent positive to 49 percent negative. Russians themselves are overwhelmingly positive about Putin (80%).

The Western European picture, though, is distinctly more negative. A large majority of French express a lack of confidence (76%), with 55 percent expressing no confidence at all. Spanish views are similar, though less emphatic: 70 percent lack confidence, but only 36 percent have no confidence at all. Fifty-six percent of Britons also express a lack of confidence, up 9 points from 2007.

The Middle East is similarly negative. The Palestinians hold the most negative view of Putin (85%-up from 71% in 2007), with 55 percent expressing no confidence at all. Sixty-eight percent of Jordanians express a lack of confidence (60% no confidence) as do two-thirds of Turks (58% no confidence). Fifty-six percent of Egyptians express a lack of confidence, but this is down from 70 percent in 2007, and just one in four say they have "no confidence at all."

In sharp contrast to its neighbors, a plurality in Iran (48%) expresses "some" or "a lot of" confidence in Putin, and just 27 percent express a lack of confidence.

In the Americas, 71 percent in the United States express a negative view-- 21 points more than in 2007. In Latin America, a majority of Mexicans (56%) have a negative view, up from 48 percent. Argentines lean negative (47 to 24%).

In Africa, Nigeria is divided, with 40 percent expressing "some" or "a lot of" confidence and 38 percent expressing little or no confidence.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon

Ban Ki-moon is the only leader to receive moderately positive ratings. In nine nations a plurality or majority say they have "some" or "a lot of"

115 confidence in him to do the right thing. In eight nations a plurality or majority say they have "little" or "no confidence at all". However, many do not provide an answer.

Those saying that they have confidence include majorities in South Korea (83%) [Ban's country of origin], Nigeria (70%), and China (57%). Pluralities say so in Britain (49 to 27% little or no confidence), France (45 to 21%), India (40 to 22%), Indonesia (39 to 33%), and Azerbaijan (38 to 29%). Interestingly, Iranians also give Ban a positive rating (43 to 18%), despite the sanctions that the United Nations Security Council has imposed on Iran to press it to stop its uranium enrichment program.

Five nations show strongly negative views--all in the Middle East region. Majorities say they have little or no confidence in the Palestinian territories (90%, 59% no confidence), Jordan (70%, 63% no confidence), Turkey (63%, 56% no confidence) and Egypt (78%, 38% no confidence).

Four other countries--the United States, Russia, Argentina and Thailand--predominantly express low levels of confidence in the UN leader, with relatively few saying they have "no confidence at all." In these countries the dominant answer is "not too much" confidence, or a failure to give a response. Those saying they have "not too much" confidence may be expressing a lack of familiarity with the relatively new and low- profile Secretary General, rather than indicating that they hold a negative view of the world leader.

In the United States, 40 percent say they have "not too much confidence," while 20 percent say they have "no confidence at all." Most Russians choose not to answer (46%), though 20 percent say "not too much" and 10 percent say "no confidence at all." Similarly, among Argentines, 36 percent do not answer, 16 percent say "not too much" and 21 percent say they have no confidence. Finally, in Thailand 49 percent do not answer, 23 percent say "not too much" and 7 percent have no confidence.

Views are divided in Mexico, Spain and Ukraine. In Spain, 32 percent express confidence, while 30 percent lack confidence. In Mexico, 44 percent say they have confidence while 41 percent express little or no confidence (16%, no confidence). In Ukraine a remarkably high 67 percent do not answer, while 16 percent express confidence and 18 percent little or no confidence.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown

116

Gordon Brown is the national leader that gets the largest number of nations giving him positive ratings. Nonetheless, more nations give him negative ratings (11) than positive ratings (6), while two are divided. On average, just 30 percent say they have confidence in Brown and 43 percent say they have little or no confidence.

The most positive evaluations of Brown can be found among Americans and Nigerians where, in both cases, 59 percent express some or a lot of confidence. Thirty-five and 30 percent, respectively, express little or no confidence.

Views are also fairly positive towards Brown among most Asian publics polled. These especially include South Korea (57% positive) and China (50%). India leans towards positive evaluations (37% positive to 28% negative), though 35 percent do not answer either way. Thais are divided (27% positive, 26% negative, 46% no answer). Only the Indonesians lean negative with 43 percent expressing little or no confidence (28% some or a lot).

Out of all regions polled, the Middle Eastern publics' evaluations of Brown are by far the most negative. Large majorities say they have "little" or "no confidence at all" in his leadership in the Palestinian territories (90%, 67% no confidence), Jordan (72%, 67% no confidence), and Turkey (65%, 60% no confidence). A large majority of Egyptians (66%) also give negative ratings but only 27 percent say they have "no confidence at all." A more modest majority of Iranians (52%) lack confidence in Brown, but most of these (39%) say they have "no confidence at all." Azerbaijanis, however, lean positive (43 to 32% negative).

Britain's European neighbors have more moderate or unformed views of Brown. At this stage the French public is roughly equally divided between those who say they have a positive view (35%), a negative view (33%) and have no view either way (33%). Russians lean negative (40 to 19%) but 40 percent do not answer. Ukrainians also lean negative (26 to 17%), with more than half (57%) declining to offer an opinion. In Spain,

117 43 percent are negative, 22 percent positive, with no response from 35 percent. Britons themselves are divided on Brown (48% positive, 46% negative).

The Latin Americans polled also lean negative with many not answering. Among Mexicans, 46 percent are negative, 34 percent positive and 21 percent do not answer. Among Argentines, 45 percent are negative, 22 percent positive and 32 percent do not answer.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy

Among the 19 nations questioned, only four rate Nicolas Sarkozy positively while 15 rate him negatively. On average, 25 percent say they have confidence in Sarkozy to do right thing in world affairs, while 48 percent say they have little or no confidence.

Most of his positive ratings come from Asian countries. South Koreans have the largest number (48%) expressing confidence in Sarkozy's ability to do the right thing regarding world affairs. Chinese lean positive (42 to 22%) though 37 percent do not take a position. Indians also lean positive (35 to 30%)--though less so--and fairly large numbers (35%) also do not express a view. Indonesians, on the other hand, lean negative (46 to 19%) with 35 percent not answering. Thais are similar (30% negative, 23% positive, 48% no view).

Nigerians are the second most positive about Sarkozy. Forty-seven percent have a positive view, 33 percent a negative view and 21 percent do not answer.

Harshly negative views are found in most Middle East publics. Low levels of confidence in Sarkozy's leadership are expressed by very large majorities in the Palestinian territories (91%, 67% no confidence), Turkey (73%, 68% no confidence), and Jordan (72%, 66% no confidence). A large majority of Egyptians (68%) also express negative views, but only 28 percent say they have "no confidence at all."

118 More moderate views are expressed by Iranians and Azerbaijanis. Iranians lean negative (47 to 10%) with large numbers not taking a position. Azerbaijanis also lean negative (48 to 31%).

Publics in the Americas have little confidence in Sarkozy's leadership. Fifty-five percent of Americans express a lack of confidence (as compared to 38% expressing confidence) as do 52 percent of Argentines (26% expressing confidence). Mexicans also lean negative (48 to 33%).

France's regional neighbors also lean negative toward Sarkozy, with many still withholding judgment. The British lean negative (42 to 32%), with 24 percent undecided. Russians also lean negative (42 to 20%) with more (38%) not answering. Ukrainians tilt negative (28 to 18%), with a remarkable 54 percent withholding judgment. The Spanish are Sarkozy's harshest critics, with 60 percent expressing little or no confidence and just 25 percent expressing some or a lot. French opinion of their own leader, while negative, is milder than that of the Spanish (54% negative, 44% positive).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

For Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 13 nations give negative ratings, two give mildly positive ratings and two are divided. On average, just 24 percent say they have "some" or "a lot of" confidence, while 52 percent say they have "little" or "no confidence at all" in Ahmadinejad to do the right thing in world affairs. Compared to polling conducted by Pew in 2007, positive views are up just slightly, like in the case of Putin, masking a number of sharp divergent movements in opinion among specific countries.

The most favorable views of Ahmadinejad are found in Asia. Among the Chinese, a plurality now has a positive view (38 to 27% negative)--up 16 points from 2007. Similarly, in India views now lean positive (35 to 26%)--also up 16 points. In both cases this is a reversal from 2007 when both countries had pluralities expressing a lack of

119 confidence. In Indonesia, views are now divided, with 40 percent expressing some or a lot of confidence (down 11 points), and 36 percent expressing little or no confidence.

However, a majority of South Koreans show a lack of confidence (62%). Thais also lean negative, 34 percent to 15 percent (though 50% did not respond).

Views are quite negative among Iran's neighbors in the Middle East. The most negative are Turks with 62 percent expressing a lack of confidence (54% no confidence). Sixty- two percent of Palestinians also hold this view (36% no confidence). Fifty-six percent in Egypt and Jordan also express a lack of confidence (29% and 43%, respectively, have no confidence at all). Likewise, in Iran's immediate neighbor Azerbaijan, 54 percent are negative.

In Europe, negative views of Ahmadinejad prevail. A large majority in France (71%) expresses a lack of confidence (51% no confidence) as do 61 percent of the British. Pluralities in Russia (40 to 11%) and Ukraine (27 to 8%) lack confidence.

The most negative view is in the United States. An overwhelming 87 percent express a negative view with 56 percent saying they have "no confidence at all." The negative majority in the United States has grown 15 points over 2007, apparently due to growing awareness of Ahmadinejad (the number of respondents with no opinion is down 14 points this year).

In Latin America, both Argentina and Mexico have majorities with negative views. In Argentina 52 percent are negative (33% no confidence) and in Mexico 65 percent lack confidence (40% no confidence).

Nigerian opinion is divided, with 42 percent expressing some or a lot of confidence and 39 percent expressing little or no confidence.

120 Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf

Only one country leans toward a positive view of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, one is divided and 18 have predominantly negative views. On average across 20 publics, a majority of 54 percent say they have "little" or "no confidence at all" that Musharraf will do the right thing regarding world affairs, while just 18 percent have "a lot" or "some" confidence in him to do the right thing.

The one country that gives Musharraf a mildly positive rating is China, where 37 percent are positive and 30 percent negative. Nigerians are divided--39 percent positive, 42 percent negative.

The most negative views are found in Pakistan's Middle Eastern neighbors. Eighty-one percent of Palestinians say they do not have confidence in Musharraf (55% no confidence at all). Very negative views are also found in Jordan (64%, 56% no confidence at all), Egypt (70%, 36% no confidence at all) and Turkey (61%, 55% no confidence at all). Azerbaijan leans negative (45 to 29%).

With the exception of China, views among Asian countries are quite negative. Majorities have negative views of Musharraf in South Korea (66%) and in Pakistan's neighbor, India (54%). Views lean negative in Indonesia (48 to 22%) and Thailand (38 to 31%).

Among European publics polled, a lack of confidence is most widespread among the French (62%), Spanish (61%) and British (57%), along with a plurality of Russians (42 to 7%). Ukrainians lean negative (28 to 4%), but two-thirds do not provide an answer.

In the Americas an overwhelming majority in the US (79%) have a negative view as do a large majority of Mexicans (65%). A plurality of Argentines (50 to 8%) also has a negative view.

121 July 10, 2008

Iranians, Egyptians, Turks: Contrasting Views on Sharia

In Egypt, 64% think Sharia must be the only source of legislation

In Turkey, a parliamentary democracy whose secular character is spelled out in the national constitution, the public is more divided about the role Sharia should play in national law than the public in neighboring Iran. But in Egypt, where strong presidential rule is in place, public opinion is much more likely to favor religious law as the only source of legislation.

122

It is often assumed that women oppose religious law, but the poll findings reveal that men and women express strikingly similar views within each country on the role of Sharia in legislation.

In Iran, majorities of men (62%) and women (64%) tell Gallup that Sharia must be a source of legislation, but not the only source. Identical percentages of men and women (14%) think it should be the only source of legislation, and fewer than 2 in 10 men and just 1 in 10 women think it should not be a source of legislation.

Egyptians' views about the role of Sharia contrast dramatically with those of Iranians. Almost two-thirds (64%) of Egyptian men and women say Sharia should be the only source of legislation, while about one-quarter (24%) of men and women think it should be one of the sources. Few Egyptians, 3% of men and 2% of women, say it should not be a source of national law.

123 Poll findings in Turkey show how divided the Turkish public is about the role of Islam in the public sphere. Forty-one percent of men and women think religious law should not be a source of legislation. About one-quarter of respondents (27% of men and 24% of women) think Sharia should be one of the sources of legislation, and fewer than 1 in 10 respondents (8% of men and 6% of women) say it should be the only source. However, many in Turkish society did not offer an opinion about the role of religious law: 24% of Turkish men and 29% of Turkish women say they don't know or refused to answer.

The significance of religion provides important context to understand the influence of Sharia in all three countries. In Iran, 73% of men and 78% of women say religion plays an important role in their lives, and in Egypt, virtually all men (98%) and women (99%) say the same. But even in staunchly secular Turkey, religion looms large for most individuals. Seventy-four percent of Turkish men and 72% of Turkish women tell Gallup that religion plays an important role in their lives. For many Muslims, the combination of the importance of religion and the divine foundations of Islamic religious law give Sharia legitimacy to provide checks and balances on a government's powers. Overall, the poll findings show that within each country, men and women hold similar views about Sharia. Iranians, Egyptians, and even many Turks believe religion and government can be integrated.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,004 adults, aged 15 and older, in Iran in June-July 2007. In Egypt, results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,024 adults, aged 15 and older, in July 2007. In Turkey, results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,001 adults, aged 15 and older, in May 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 11, 2008

Istanbul Attack Underscores Poor U.S. Image

Two in three Turks disapprove of U.S. leadership, consider it hostile

Motives behind the attack on the U.S. consulate Wednesday in Istanbul, Turkey, are still unknown, but the terrorist act, allegedly carried out by several Turkish nationals, emphasizes the negative image U.S. leadership has in Turkey and elsewhere around the globe.

124

Turks' low approval rating of U.S. leadership provides evidence of the strain the Iraq war and U.S. reluctance to assist Turkey's fight against Kurdish rebels have placed on relations between the two longtime allies. Further reflecting the situation at the time of the survey, majorities of Turks also say they dislike President Bush and perceive the United States as hostile to their country.

125

Since Gallup's May 2007 survey, the United States has provided intelligence to Turkey for strikes against rebels inside Iraq and pledged more support. However, a recent Pew survey in Turkey suggests this has failed to improve the United States' image there. The percentage of Turks having a favorable opinion of the United States rose from 9% in the Pew survey last year to only 12% this year.

Global Context

Although Turks' rating of U.S. leadership is poor, the 16% approval is actually higher than what Gallup has measured among other key partners in the Middle East and Europe. In fact, counter to what many Americans might expect, key U.S. allies in Europe dominate the list of countries where citizens' approval of U.S. leadership is lowest.

126

It's also important to note that few Turks view the leaderships of other Western nations positively. Roughly one in six Turks say they approve of the leadership of France and the United Kingdom, which are similar ratings to the one Turks give the United States. Germany's leadership fares some better, with 30% saying they approve.

127

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,001 adults living in Turkey, aged 15 and older, conducted in May 2007. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

128 Business and Politics in The Mulism World Opinion Polls Weekly Report Week July 14-20, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: July 22, 2008 Introduction Summary Middle East Many Israelis Want Early Elections North America Surging Prices Changing U.S. Consumer Behavior Bush Quarterly Average Establishes New Low: 29% Immigration Good, Illegality Bad for Americans Congressional Approval Hits Record-Low 14% South America Farm Protests Underscore Economic Worry Across Argentina Latin America’s Entrepreneurs: Catholics vs. Protestants West Europe Britons Choose Obama Five-to-One Spaniards Worried About Economic Issues East Europe Only Two-in-Five Russians Know What G-8 Is Australasia New Zealanders Assess Emissions Trading Scheme East Asia Economic Concerns Simmer Ahead of Indonesia’s Election Inflation Grips Indonesians, Worries Reach Record High West Asia Pakistani’s Highly Concerned about Inflation and Wants Musharaf Resignation Regional Poll Indian and Pakistani Publics Show Flexibility on Kashmir

129 Introduction

This week’s report consists of fifteen surveys. Of these two are of regional significance while thirteen are of national or local importance.

Political issues

IRI survey of Pakistan shows that Pakistanis feel the country is going in the wrong direction. Priorities of the public have not changed since IRI conducted its last poll in February 2008. Inflation and other economic issues have the highest priority for Pakistanis. Along with these priorities Pakistanis are highly supportive of the restoration of judiciary and removal of President Musharaf from his office.

More than eight in ten want either Musharaf should resign or he should be removed by the current government. Moreover like Terrorfreetomorrow survey, IRI survey also shows that Pakistanis want their government to follow a policy of dialogue with the militants in tribal areas. They are highly supportive pacific means for dealing with the situation in bordering area of Pakistan in the west. The idea of economic and educational development in the region is more appealing for Pakistanis for addressing the problem of extremism in the region instead of launching military operations.

The survey also shows that popularity of PMLN has increased after the election and if new elections take place PMLN or its coalition will secure highest votes. Similarly the opinion of Army chief General Ashfaq Pervaiz Keyani is also improving, which is a positive signal for the whole Army and many believe that Musharaf has negatively affected the institution of Army.

President Bush will leave office as one of the ten most unpopular Presidents of U.S. since 1945. His average quarterly rating for this quarter is 29 which put him into the list of Nixon, Carter, and Truman who faced various crises during their tenure. In the short history energy and economic crisis that resulted in hiking of prices may by responsible for further aggravating his popularity.

Similarly ‘congress’ rating are also hitting record unpopularity level since Gallup USA started asking the question about Congress performance 34 years ago. These poor ratings of the prominent offices of the state seem to be reflective of the unpopularity of the current government led by President Bush.

A WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of the Indian and Pakistani publics reveals that half or more are open to a range of possible outcomes for Kashmir other than it being part of their respective countries. On neither side is there strong majority opposition to Kashmir becoming an independent country or dividing Kashmir between Pakistan and India.

130 More significant, Indians and Pakistanis show a readiness to have the Kashmiri people decide their fate. If a majority of all Kashmiris were to choose independence, a majority of Indians and Pakistanis would find such independence at least tolerable.

These opinions show that publics across borders now really want an end to this problem by any means. As public is becoming more aware of the fact that both the countries have wasted enough resources in fighting wars and piling up missiles and warheads, just because of this issue, had these resources been utilized for the public development, the subcontinent would have been one of the better regions of the globe.

Economic issues

The poor economic perceptions are becoming widespread in the year 2008. We have already seen these kind of negative perceptions in U.S., Canada, Pakistan, Indonesia, Myanmar, Japan, this week we found the same kind of feelings in Spain and Argentina, where publics are feeling that they or their country is becoming economically worse.

Moreover Gallup has probed a bit more into the issue and discovers that the economic problems are changing the behavior of Americans. Now more Americans say they look for products of cheap prices. Similarly the nature of their economic concerns is also changing.

An interesting study conducted by Gallup in South American finds that Protestant are more sound economically then the Catholic across region. Gallup finds that more Protestants have plan for improving their standard of living than Catholics.

Social issues

On the social issues we again find that environmental concern is resonating across the continents. Last week New Zealanders show their positive attitude for such legislation that can limit the emission of dangerous gases. So the issue of climate change is really becoming a public concern with the passage of time.

Summary

Middle East

Many Israelis Want Early Elections

Many people in Israel want the country to go to the polls before the end of this year, according to a survey by Maagar Mochot released by Israel Radio. 42 per cent of respondents want the impending election to the leadership of the governing Kadima party to result in a call for an early legislative ballot. July 18, 2008

131 North America

Surging Prices Changing U.S. Consumer Behavior

Gallup USA. When asked to name the most important financial problem facing their families today, nearly half of Americans point to energy and gas prices (29%) or to the high cost of living and inflation (18%). Fourteen percent say a lack of money and low wages, and 9% each say healthcare costs or the cost of owning or renting a home.

July 18, 2008

Bush Quarterly Average Establishes New Low: 29%

George W. Bush Ranks as of one of 10 worst Presidents since 1945. He will end his 30th quarter in the White House with just a 29% average approval rating for the last three months, the worst of his presidency.

July 17, 2008

Immigration Good, Illegality Bad for Americans

Many adults in the United States believe immigration is positive, according to a poll by Gallup. 64 per cent of respondents think immigration is a good thing, while 30 per cent deem it a bad thing.

July 19, 2008

Congressional Approval Hits Record-Low 14%

Congress' job approval rating has dropped five percentage points over the past month, from 19% in June to 14% in July, making the current reading the lowest congressional job approval rating in the 34-year Gallup Poll history of asking the question. The previous low was 18%, last reached in May.

July 13, 2008

South America

Farm Protests Underscore Economic Worry Across Argentina

Farmers in Argentina recently concluded a third round of strikes against higher export taxes in their country, where in 2007, 35% of respondents said the current economic conditions in their city or area were not good. Long-standing discontent persists in rural provinces, in part, because their growing economic has not translated into greater political voice.

132 July 16, 2008

Latin America’s Entrepreneurs: Catholics vs. Protestants

Gallup polling from 2007 indicates members of Latin America's growing Protestant population are somewhat more likely than those in the region's majority Catholic population to say they have a plan or idea to improve their standard of living -- a difference of 57% vs. 49%, respectively.

July 15, 2008

West Europe

Britons Choose Obama Five-to-One

Adults in Britain prefer Barack Obama over John McCain, according to a poll by ICM Research published in The Guardian. 53 per cent of respondents think the Democrat would make the better president of the United States, while 11 per cent select the Republican.

July 19, 2008

Spaniards Worried About Economic Issues

Many people in Spain think a strained economy is threatening their country, according to a poll by Real Insituto Elcano. At least 72 per cent of respondents think the rising costs of food and oil are an important menace to Spain, while 65 per cent believe a global economic slowdown represents a threat as well. July 17, 2008

East Europe

Only Two-in-Five Russians Know What G-8 Is

Few people in Russia know what the Group of Eight (G-8) stands for, according to a poll by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center. 39 per cent of respondents say the G-8 is a coalition, a club, or a group of the world’s leading countries. July 14, 2008

Australasia

New Zealanders Assess Emissions Trading Scheme

A third of adults in New Zealand welcome a government plan to introduce a national emissions trading scheme to curb climate change, according to a poll by

133 DigiPoll. 34.2 per cent of respondents support the initiative, while 24.3 per cent oppose it. Two-in-five respondents have no strong feelings on the matter. July 17, 2008

East Asia

Economic Concerns Simmer Ahead of Indonesia’s Election

Gallup USA. As Indonesian politicians kick off their nine-month parliamentary election season, a recent Gallup Poll in the world's third-largest democracy suggests citizens' concerns about the economy and corruption could dog candidates along the lengthy campaign trail.

July 17, 2008

Inflation Grips Indonesians, Worries Reach Record High

July 16, 2008

West Asia

Pakistani’s Highly Concerned about Inflation and Wants Musharaf Resignation

New IRI survey shows that Pakistanis highest priority is controlling inflation and other economic problems. Similarly more then eight in ten want resignation or removal of President Musharaf.

July 17, 2008

Regional Poll

Indian and Pakistani Publics Show Flexibility on Kashmir

July 16, 2008

134

Middle East

Many Israelis Want Early Elections

July 18, 2008

Conversely, 33 per cent of respondents think Kadima’s new leader should simply form a new government with the same legislature without a new election.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

On May 12, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Moshe Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime, but now Olmert is under investigation.

Following calls for his resignation while the investigation continues, Olmert—who has been the subject of other corruption probes in the past—said that he will step down only if the attorney general decides to indict him. If the prime minister resigns, a snap election could take place, or another member of Kadima could take over as head of government. Kadima will hold a primary ballot in September.

On Jul. 13, Israeli deputy prime minister and Kadima member Chaim Ramon said that whoever wins the leadership ballot will immediately form a new government, and then Olmert will step down. However, Ramon warned that gathering enough support from legislators to form a new government could be too difficult, adding, "In that case, Olmert could remain prime minister until March or April [2009]."

Polling Data

135 In your opinion, should the election of a new leader of Kadima this September lead to having new general elections or the formation of an alternative government with the same Knesset without elections?

Elections 42%

No elections 33%

Don’t know / Other replies 25%

Source: Maagar Mochot / Israel Radio Methodology: Telephone interviews with 504 Israeli adults, conducted on Jul. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

July 18, 2008

Surging Prices Changing U.S. Consumer Behavior

Eight in 10 Americans have made more of an effort to find the cheapest prices for products

When asked to name the most important financial problem facing their families today, nearly half of Americans point to energy and gas prices (29%) or to the high cost of living and inflation (18%). Fourteen percent say a lack of money and low wages, and 9% each say healthcare costs or the cost of owning or renting a home.

Consumer Behaviors Are Changing

136 No one needs to tell the average American that prices are increasing, but the Labor Department confirmed Wednesday that consumer prices rose 5% over the past 12 months -- the most rapid rate of increase since May 1991. This follows the previous day's report that wholesale prices increased 9.2% over the past year -- the biggest jump since 1981. It is thus not surprising to find that the top two categories of personal financial problems named by Americans relate to rising costs.

It follows that surging consumer prices are creating financial problems for many families. And Americans are responding by changing their behavior as consumers. A recent Gallup Poll asked Americans to react to eight possible ways in which families could in theory cope with rising prices. In response, an overwhelming 81% reported that they have made more of an effort to find the cheapest prices for the products they buy. Three in four say they have cut back on spending on entertainment, recreation, or eating out, while two- thirds have made a greater effort to keep track of family spending, such as a monthly budget. Nearly half have bought cheaper, lower-quality goods (49%) or have shopped more often at discount stores (46%).

Commentary

Increasing prices are not a new challenge for consumers, despite what economists might say regarding the changes in the consumer price index and so-called core inflation -- a price measure that excludes food and energy prices. Still, it appears that consumer perceptions of price inflation have intensified. Compared with April, roughly twice as many consumers volunteer that energy costs or inflation is the most important financial problem facing their families.

More importantly, inflation seems to be having a major impact on consumer buying behaviors. Consumers are not only cutting back on their entertainment spending and deferring some purchases they previously intended to make, but they are also shopping differently. While it is not surprising that they are more price conscious and looking for

137 sales, it may be somewhat less well recognized that so many -- about half -- also admit to buying lower-quality items and shopping more at discounters because of price.

Assuming this change in consumer purchasing behaviors continues even if the cost of gas at the pump declines from its recent record levels, the change itself suggests that discounters like Wal-Mart will continue to benefit at the expense of department stores and the top-quality brands they sell. In this regard, the real question going forward may be whether this consumer spending shift to low-cost-provider companies and brands is large enough to offset the overall decline in consumer purchasing activities -- making today's low-cost providers actual winners in terms of sales growth, as opposed to being "lesser losers." Low-cost providers may be getting a larger piece of the consumer- purchases pie, but the size of that pie is shrinking.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,016 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 10-13, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 17, 2008

Bush Quarterly Average Establishes New Low: 29%

Ranks as of one of 10 worst since 1945

George W. Bush will end his 30th quarter in the White House with just a 29% average approval rating for the last three months, the worst of his presidency.

138

Bush's previous low quarterly average was 31.3% in the prior (29th) quarter. During his 30th quarter (spanning April 20 through July 19), Bush's six individual Gallup Poll approval ratings ranged between 28% and 31%. The 31% reading is from the most recent update, based on a July 10-13 Gallup Poll.

High gas prices, numerous economic troubles, and ongoing U.S. military action in Iraq and Afghanistan all contributed to Bush's recent low ratings, which rank among the lowest Gallup has measured historically. The lowest single rating for any president is Harry Truman's 22% job approval rating in February 1952. Bush has achieved a personal low of 28% five times, three of which occurred in his most recent quarter in office.

Bush spent a good part of 2001 and 2002 at the opposite end of the spectrum, registering some of the highest approval ratings in Gallup's polling history, including a record-high 90% from a poll conducted shortly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Since then, Bush's approval rating has steadily declined.

Gallup has measured only eight presidential quarterly averages lower than Bush's current 29% since it regularly began tracking presidential approval ratings in 1945 -- all by Truman in 1951 and 1952 or Richard Nixon in 1973 and 1974. Jimmy Carter joins Bush, Truman, and Nixon as presidents with the 15 worst quarterly averages.

139

Bush is only the fifth president since World War II to have served a 30th quarter in office, and he now rates as the president with the worst approval average during this time of his presidency. Truman previously had the lowest 30th quarter average, at 32%, while Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton all averaged above 50%.

140

Implications

Bush is clearly limping toward the finish line, with just eight months and two quarters left in his presidency, and unless national conditions improve significantly, he will likely leave office with low ratings (even if he gets a post-election bounce, as outgoing presidents typically do).

His historically low approval ratings are a challenge for John McCain and for the Republican Party's hopes of retaining the presidency. The closest historical parallel to the current situation is the 1952 election, when Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson unsuccessfully sought to succeed the unpopular Harry Truman as president. But the outgoing president's approval ratings are not very predictive of the outcome of the presidential election. Among the more popular presidents in the late stages of their terms, only Reagan was succeeded as president by a member of his party.

Survey Methods

Results are based on averages of six Gallup Polls, each consisting of telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted between April 20 and July 19, 2008. For each poll, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

The most recent results are based on telephone interviews with 1,016 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 10-13, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Immigration Good, Illegality Bad for Americans

141 July 19, 2008

Many adults in the United States believe immigration is positive, according to a poll by Gallup. 64 per cent of respondents think immigration is a good thing, while 30 per cent deem it a bad thing.

When asked about illegal immigrants, 63 per cent of respondents believe they cost the taxpayers too much by using government services like public education and medical services, while 31 per cent claim they become productive citizens in the long-run and pay their fair share of taxes.

In March 2006, the Pew Hispanic Center calculated the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. at somewhere between 11.5 million to 12 million.

In May 2006, U.S. president George W. Bush addressed the nation to discuss his immigration proposals. Bush outlined five clear objectives: securing the borders, creating a temporary worker program, holding employers to account for the workers they hire, allowing illegal immigrants "who have roots" in the country to apply for citizenship, and helping newcomers assimilate into American society.

In 2007, the U.S. Senate discussed and rejected a revised immigration bill, which would have allowed illegal immigrants to come forward and obtain a "Z visa." After paying fees, a $5,000 U.S. fine and then returning to their home countries, they could apply for permanent residency, which could be granted in eight to 13 years. The bill also included a proposal to introduce a points system that would prioritize access to the U.S. for skilled and educated immigrants, as well as new family-reunification guidelines.

Earlier this month, Mack Associates Inc.—a company that owns 11 McDonald’s restaurants in the United States—was ordered to pay a $1 million U.S. fine for providing false Social Security numbers to illegal immigrants. The charges stemmed from an investigation by Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.

Polling Data

On the whole, do you think immigration is a good thing or a bad thing for this country today?

Jun. Jun. 2008 Jun. 2007 2006

Good Thing 64% 60% 67%

Bad Thing 30% 33% 28%

Mixed 4% 3% 4%

142 Unsure 2% 4% 1%

Now, thinking specifically about illegal immigrants, which comes closer to your point of view? Illegal immigrants in the long-run become productive citizens and pay their fair share of taxes; or, Illegal immigrants cost the taxpayers too much by using government services like public education and medical services

Jun. 2008 Jun. 2006

Cost Too Much 63% 66%

Pay Fair Share 31% 29%

Neither / Both Unsure 6% 4%

Source: Gallup Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,935 American adults, including oversamples of African Americans and Hispanics weighted to reflect their proportions in the general population, conducted on Jul. 5 and Jul. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

July 16, 2008

Congressional Approval Hits Record-Low 14%

Democrats less positive than Republicans about Congress

143

The 75% currently disapproving of Congress is just shy of the record-high 78% in March 1992.

These results, from a July 10-13 Gallup Poll, follow 18 months of dismal job approval ratings for Congress, during which approval has usually registered below 30%, and has averaged only 25%.

Still, the 14% approval rating is extraordinary. Approval of Congress has fallen below 20% only six times in the 34 years Gallup has measured it. Including the latest reading, four of those have come in the past year: in July, June, and May 2008, and in August 2007. The two additional readings were from March 1992 (in the midst of the House bank check-kiting scandal) and June 1979 (during an energy crisis that resulted in surging gas prices and long gas lines), when either 18% or 19% of Americans approved of the job Congress was doing.

The most recent decline comes almost exclusively from Democrats, whose approval of Congress fell from 23% in June to 11% in July, while independents' and Republicans' views of Congress did not change much. As a result, Republicans are now slightly more likely than Democrats to approve of the job the Democratic-controlled Congress is doing (19% vs. 11%).

144

The 11% of Democrats now approving of Congress is slightly lower than Gallup found in 2006, toward the end of the Republican-led 109th Congress. Democratic approval of Congress initially surged after the Democratic takeover of the U.S. House and Senate, from 16% in December 2006 to 44% in February 2007, but by August 2007 it had fallen to 21%. Democrats' approval of Congress rebounded to 37% later that year, but has since been in a nearly continuous decline.

Republicans' approval of Congress dipped at the point of transition from Republican to Democratic control after the 2006 midterm elections, from 50% in November 2006 to 31% in February 2007 -- and has continued to trend downward except for a brief spike last fall after Gen. Petraeus' testimony before Congress.

Bottom Line

145 Gallup's latest monthly update of public approval of Congress leads to several observations:

As economic conditions in the country are worsening, Congress is taking the brunt of it. Since the start of the year, public approval of Congress has fallen from 23% to 14%, while approval of President George W. Bush has been more stable: 32% approved of the job he was doing in early January versus 31% today, with a range of just 28% to 34%.

One reason for the growing congressional/Bush approval gap is that Bush benefits from a core group of Republicans nationally who continue to stick by him (67% of whom approve in the latest poll), and who, at this point, are likely to remain supportive of him through the close of his term. This contrasts with the paltry 11% of Democrats who currently approve of the job Congress is doing. By its nature, Congress may simply be less able to engender this kind of political loyalty -- it typically trails the sitting president in approval -- and thus, the current Democratic Congress lacks a reliable pool of Democratic support to keep its approval ratings afloat.

Still, the Democratic Congress has received much less intra-party support for its leadership of the kind that the Republican Congress enjoyed from Republicans in 2006. The mild honeymoon the current Congress enjoyed with its own party at the start of last year quickly faded as Democrats grew upset with congressional inaction on Iraq and immigration reform.

Finally, 2008 now looks an awful lot like 1979, and for some of the same reasons: mounting inflation, record-high gas prices, and a looming recession. Public approval of President Jimmy Carter in mid-July 1979 was 29%, very similar to Bush's current 31%. And approval of Congress was also comparable: 19% in June 1979 vs. 14% today.

Survey Methods

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

146 South America

July 16, 2008

Farm Protests Underscore Economic Worry Across Argentina

Rural respondents twice as likely to voice their concern

Since March, Argentina's government, one of the world's leading exporters of corn, wheat, soya, and beef, has enforced a new sliding scale for export taxes on such farm products, in some cases boosting rates as high as 45%. The government introduced the tax increase as a way to raise federal revenue and dissuade farmers from selling food internationally that is needed domestically. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has also argued that the new tax scale would help curb soaring inflation rates. But farmers have contended that the higher taxes reduce their profit margins and disrupted food deliveries in protest.

President Fernandez, who roundly won the election last October, now faces declining approval ratings. Poliarquía Consultores, an Argentine polling firm, reported her approval rating at 20% for June (a marked difference from her 57% approval rating in January). Pollsters contribute the decline, in large part, to the ongoing struggles with the Argentine

147 farmers who benefited from former President Néstor Kirchner's fiscal policies that saved them from the country's financial crisis in 2001 and originally supported Fernandez.

The Voice of Concern

Considering the growing voice of dissent evident in the farm protests, the Gallup Poll found that rural respondents were nearly twice as likely as urban respondents to report having voiced their opinion to a public official within the last month.

Bottom Line

Considering the economic dissatisfaction and willingness to protest, the veracity and length of Argentina's farm strikes come with little surprise. Further, the Gallup Poll suggests that while a relatively small minority is physically protesting, a larger number may share their frustration. If protests resume, international attention could enervate investor confidence.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults in Argentina, aged 15 and older, conducted in August 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

148 July 15, 2008

Latin America’s Entrepreneurs: Catholics vs. Protestants

Protestants more likely to have plans to start businesses

Protestant groups have spread rapidly through much of Latin America over the past 40 years, driven largely by the efforts of U.S. evangelicals. Gallup's 2007 polls indicate that at least one in three residents say they are Protestants in five Latin American countries (Guyana, 41%; El Salvador, 36%; Honduras, 36%; Nicaragua, 36%; and Guatemala, 35%). At least 1 in 10 residents say so in 13 countries, including Brazil (21%), Chile (17%), and Peru (15%).

This trend has sparked considerable interest in the possible effects of Protestantism on Latin American societies. Some scholars have theorized that it may have a positive effect on economic development in some countries, applying Max Weber's well-known ideas about the "Protestant work ethic" -- namely, their more puritanical approach to day-today life helps Protestants resist short-term gratification and encourages hard work, saving, and reinvestment.

149 For his 1990 book Tongues of Fire, David Martin of the London School of Economics and Political Science compiled case studies from several Latin American countries and concluded that, though its impact depends on local conditions, Protestantism -- especially Pentecostal denominations -- has tended to encourage the development of skills that promote economic activity. "By moulding individuals with some sense of their own selfhood and capacity to choose," Martin wrote, "[Pentecostalism] may well be building up a constituency well-disposed to a capitalistic form of development."

The previous finding suggests there is some validity to this argument, though so far the region-wide impact has been modest. In addition to their greater likelihood to say they have a plan to improve their standard of living, Latin America's Protestants are somewhat more likely than Catholics to say they plan to start their own business in the next 12 months -- 32% vs. 26%, respectively, do so.

However, materialistic impulses do not seem to motivate Protestants any more than they do Catholics. Asked to choose from several attitudes toward life, similar proportions of Protestants and Catholics select "work hard and get rich" (18% of both groups) and "try to make a name for yourself" (4% of Catholics; 3% of Protestants). The biggest difference, as Weber's theory would predict, is that Protestants are nearly twice as likely as Catholics (23% vs. 12%) to select a "pure and just" life, resisting vices that offer short- term gratification.

150

Bottom Line

As Martin notes, the effects of Protestantism in Latin America tend to be context- dependent, typically constrained by local political and cultural circumstances. That helps explain why, 18 years after Martin's book was published, region-wide differences between Catholics and Protestants are still only moderate. But those differences are there -- and in a region where job creation is so critical to the future, they indicate that the spread of Protestantism is certainly a trend worth watching.

Survey Methods

151 Results are based on in-person interviews conducted in 2007 with approximately 1,000 residents, aged 15 and older, living in each of 17 Latin American countries, and 500 residents in an additional five countries (Belize, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago) and in Puerto Rico. For results based on the total samples of 1,000 residents, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the total samples of 500 residents, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

West Europe

Britons Choose Obama Five-to-One

July 19, 2008

McCain has become the presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee in 2008, while Obama clinched the Democratic Party’s nomination on Jun. 3.

Earlier this month, Obama campaign senior strategist David Axelrod discussed the candidate’s upcoming overseas trip—which will include a visit to Britain—saying, "It’s an opportunity for him to sit down with the international leaders with whom he would have to work as president of the United States, and discuss some of the issues."

U.S. president George W. Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

You may have seen or heard that John McCain and Barack Obama are set to be the candidates in the American presidential elections which will take place in November. As far as you are aware, which one of them do you think would make the better president of the United States?

Barack Obama (D) 53%

John McCain (R) 11%

Don’t know 36%

152 Source: ICM Research / The Guardian Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,009 British adults, conducted on Jul. 9 and Jul. 10, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Spaniards Worried About Economic Issues

July 17, 2008

Islamic terrorism is next on the list of important threats to Spain with 62 per cent, followed by global warming with 55 per cent, immigration with 46 per cent, and Iranian nuclear weapons with 45 per cent. Fewer people are concerned with conflict in the Middle East and populist governments in Latin America.

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, leader of the Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE), was sworn in as president of the government in April 2004, following his party’s victory in the legislative ballot. The conservative Popular Party (PP) had administered the government under José María Aznar since 1996. Mariano Rajoy took over as PP leader in August 2003.

In March, Spain held a general election. The PSOE secured a new term in office with 43.36 per cent of the vote and 169 seats in the lower house, followed by the PP with 39.85 per cent and 153 mandates. Zapatero retained his post as head of government.

Earlier this month, BBVA—one of Spain’s top banks—released a study saying that economic activity, private consumption and unemployment "show an abrupt deterioration in the economy during the second quarter" of this year.

On Jul. 9, Zapatero admitted that Spain’s economy is "in crisis." On Jul. 13, Rajoy declared: "[The president] is more interested in introducing artificial debates than in talking about the real economic problems that have people worried."

Polling Data

Would you say each of the following is an important or not important threat to Spain? ("Very Important" and "Important" listed)

Rising cost of oil 76%

Rising cost of food 72%

Global economic slowdown 65%

153 Islamic terrorism 62%

Global warming 55%

Immigration 46%

Iran nuclear weapons 45%

Middle East conflict 32%

Populist governments in Latin America 17%

Source: Real Insituto Elcano Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,200 Spanish adults, conducted from Jun. 3 to Jun. 21, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

East Europe

Only Two-in-Five Russians Know What G-8 Is

July 14, 2008

Conversely, 15 per cent of respondents think the group is a meeting of the heads of the world’s top countries, or a meeting of the leaders of top European states only. 42 per cent of those surveyed say the question is hard to answer.

The G-8 was created after the 1998 Birmingham summit. Russia had attended previous meetings of the G-7, but had been excluded from specific discussions on financial and economic matters. Russia formally joined the group in 1998, resulting in the Group of Eight (G8). The group holds annual summits where the heads of government of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States discuss economic and political affairs. The European Union (EU) also attends these meetings as an observer.

On Jul. 9, as the annual G-8 meeting was taking place in Japan, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev proposed raising the profile of the Russian currency in the global economy, saying, "The situation with a weak dollar and strengthening euro does not satisfy our partners, it does not satisfy anyone. (...) That is why we should promote the idea of turning the [Russian] rouble into one of the possible reserve currencies."

Polling Data

154 What is the Group of Eight (G-8)?

A coalition, a club, or a group of the world’s leading countries 39%

A meeting of the heads of the world’s top countries 13%

A meeting of the leaders of top European states only 2%

Hard to answer 42%

Which countries belong to the G-8?

Russia 50%

United States 45%

Germany 37%

France 35%

United Kingdom 33%

Japan 31%

China 8%

Spain 5%

Source: All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted on Jun. 28 and Jun. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.

Australasia

New Zealanders Assess Emissions Trading Scheme

July 17, 2008

A third of adults in New Zealand welcome a government plan to introduce a national emissions trading scheme to curb climate change, according to a poll by DigiPoll. 34.2 per cent of respondents support the initiative, while 24.3 per cent oppose it. Two-in-five respondents have no strong feelings on the matter.

Labour leader Helen Clark has acted as New Zealand’s prime minister since December 1999. In November 2006, Don Brash—who had served as the opposition National party’s leader since October 2003—announced his resignation and was substituted by finance spokesman John Key.

155 In the September 2005 ballot, Labour elected 50 lawmakers to the 121-seat House of Representatives, and assembled a coalition government with the Progressives. United Future and New Zealand First agreed to support the administration in confidence and supply votes for three years. National finished second, with 48 legislators.

The government’s proposed climate change legislation—known as the Emissions Trading and Renewable Preference Bill—is currently under review by the legislature’s finance committee.

In late June, Business Council for Sustainable Development chief executive Peter Neilson urged for a quick implementation, saying, "Delay could postpone emission trading until 2011 or 2012—and make New Zealand slip further behind its major overseas trading partners."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose the government’s proposed emissions trading scheme?

Support 34.2%

Neutral 41.4%

Oppose 24.3%

Source: DigiPoll Methodology: Interviews with 514 New Zealand adults, conducted from Jun. 20 to Jun. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 4.2 per cent.

East Asia

July 17, 2008

Economic Concerns Simmer Ahead of Indonesia’s Election

Rising corruption also troubles citizens

As Indonesian politicians kick off their nine-month parliamentary election season, a recent Gallup Poll in the world's third-largest democracy suggests citizens' concerns about the economy and corruption could dog candidates along the lengthy campaign trail.

156

In 2007, Indonesia enjoyed strong economic growth accompanied by healthy increases in private consumption and investment. However, a Gallup Poll conducted in March 2008, two months before the government's fuel price hike sparked protests and spiked inflation, found consumers' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy clearly shaken. Seventy-two percent of Indonesians perceived economic conditions in their country as bad, representing an 18-percentage point increase from April 2007. In addition, the percentage saying economic conditions were getting worse hit a record high of 57%.

157

At the time of Gallup's survey, residents were already battling rising food and fuel costs. A record 39% of Indonesians said their standard of living was getting worse, and nearly as many (36%) said it was difficult to get by on their present household incomes. The fuel price hike in May, and the double-digit inflation it spurred, likely exacerbated many Indonesians' difficulties. Last week, Indonesia's Danareska Research Institute reported its Consumer Confidence Index in June had dropped to its lowest level since 1999; its index that measures sentiment toward the government's ability to stabilize prices also plunged to its lowest level.

Indonesia's central bank governor reported Wednesday that the country's economy had rebounded from the effects of the fuel hike, despite rising interest rates and inflation. However, residual anger over rising prices may harm incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's coalition partners' election chances, especially if conditions don't improve quickly for consumers. The government's cash handouts to 19 million poor families over the next year and a half may generate goodwill toward the incumbents, but the election will test how far that goodwill extends.

Corruption Concerns

Just as it was in the 2004 elections, Indonesia's pervasive corruption will likely be a key issue for voters next year. At the time of the Gallup Poll, the then-governor of Indonesia's central bank, who is currently on trial for corruption, had just been accused of misappropriating millions. After that, multiple high-profile corruption allegations continued to surface involving parliamentarians, federal prosecutors, the customs department, and most recently the agency that oversees the state's oil and gas industry.

158 The percentage of Indonesians who perceive corruption as widespread throughout their government and the country's businesses has been high, and getting higher, over the past several years. Nine in 10 Indonesians (91%) said in March that corruption is widespread throughout their government, and 85% said the same about businesses.

Many residents perceive a real lack of progress on Yudhoyono's 2004 election pledge to fight corruption, which may have implications on the next legislative election and the presidential election after that. In March, roughly half of Indonesians (52%) said that corruption was actually worse than it was five years ago and that the government is not doing enough to curb it (50%). It is possible, however, that the spate of current corruption investigations could change this perception between now and next year.

159

Election Look Ahead

About two in three Indonesians in March told Gallup that they were confident in their national government and approved of their country's leadership. But polling by other organizations conducted days after the fuel price hike suggest it likely has affected voters' opinions of their government: Support for the president has dropped precipitously, and support for the two main parties in the coalition government has also slumped. Unless Indonesians' confidence is restored soon, it could portend a shake-up in their country's leadership.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults living in Indonesia, aged 15 and older, conducted in August 2006, April 2007, and March 2008. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

160 June 26, 2008

Inflation Grips Indonesians, Worries Reach Record High

Roughly 4 in 10 say living standards getting worse

Roughly 4 in 10 Indonesians said their living standard is getting worse, which is the highest Gallup has measured in several years. Indonesians have voiced their frustrations in widespread demonstrations against the government's move to cut fuel subsidies and raise prices by about 30%. After a violent, student-led protest in Jakarta on Tuesday, Indonesia's parliament voted to review the government's price hike.

161

Economic Outlook

With so many Indonesians in the grips of financial stress, and growth-inhibiting inflation, it is not surprising that many also have a dour outlook on the economic conditions in their country. Nearly 6 in 10 Indonesians said they perceive economic conditions as getting worse, which is by far the most pessimistic outlook in years.

162

Bottom Line

Survey Methods

163 West Asia

Pakistani’s highly concerned about inflation and wants Musharaf resignation

More than eight in ten want either Musharaf should resign or he should be removed by the current government. Moreover like Terrorfreetomorrow survey, IRI survey also shows that Pakistanis want their government to follow a policy of dialogue with the militants in tribal areas. They are highly supportive pacific means for dealing with the situation in boardering area of Pakistan in the west. The idea of economic and educational development in the region is more appealing for Pakistanis for addressing the problem of extremism in the region instead of launching military operations.

Indian and Pakistani Publics Show Flexibility on Kashmir

July 16, 2008

A WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of the Indian and Pakistani publics reveals that half or more are open to a range of possible outcomes for Kashmir other

164 than it being part of their respective countries. On neither side is there strong majority opposition to Kashmir becoming an independent country or dividing Kashmir between Pakistan and India.

More significant, Indians and Pakistanis show a readiness to have the Kashmiri people decide their fate. If a majority of all Kashmiris were to choose independence, a majority of Indians and Pakistanis would find such independence at least tolerable.

India and Pakistan have been in a state of tension over Kashmir since the late 1940s when India gained control of most of Kashmir and Pakistan the remainder. India and Pakistan have fought two wars over Kashmir, with the most recent war in 1999 raising the specter of nuclear war. While direct confrontation has abated, militant groups opposing Indian control of Kashmir have continued to carry out terrorist attacks against Indian targets, with India claiming and Pakistan denying that such groups are supported by Pakistan. As recently as July 10, India and Pakistani troops exchanged fire across the Line of Control dividing Kashmir.

"Given the deep roots of the conflict over Kashmir, it is surprising that the conflict does not muster clearly polarized majorities in Pakistan and India, falling in line behind their governments' positions," comments Clay Ramsay, research director of WorldPublicOpinion.org. "Instead, many show openness to considering different possibilities for resolving the conflict."

In the survey, Indians and Pakistanis were asked to consider a range of possible outcomes for Indian-controlled Kashmir (known as Jammu and Kashmir) and to say whether they found them desirable, acceptable, tolerable, or unacceptable.

The idea that received the lowest level of opposition is for Jammu and Kashmir to become independent. Three quarters of Pakistanis called this outcome desirable or acceptable. While 50 percent of Indians said this idea is unacceptable, the other half said it was at least tolerable or did not provide an answer.

The idea of dividing Jammu and Kashmir between Pakistan and India gets little support on either side, but is also not opposed by a large majority. Pakistanis were roughly divided between 52 percent who found the idea unacceptable and 48 percent who said it was at least tolerable or did not answer. Among Indians, while 42 percent found division unacceptable, 58 percent said it was at least tolerable or did not answer.

However the greatest indicator of flexibility is that Indians as well as Pakistanis express a readiness to have the Kashmiri people decide their fate. Respondents were asked to "suppose the majority of all Kashmiris, including those on both sides of the

165 Line of Control and refugees, want Kashmir to be an independent state." In that case only 35 percent of Indians would find independence unacceptable. Among Pakistanis, only 11 percent found this outcome unacceptable.

A major controversy between India and Pakistan are the militant groups fighting against Indian control in Jammu and Kashmir and carrying out attacks against civilians in India in opposition to Indian control of Jammu and Kashmir. A majority of Pakistanis say Pakistan's government does not provide support to militant groups that conduct attacks against civilians in India, while a majority of Indians tend to believe it is providing support.

Pakistani attitudes about such groups are complex. Less than half (39%) believe that such groups operating in Kashmir help either the security of Kashmiris, though few (9%) say it hurts security. In the context of the conflict in Kashmir, large majorities of Pakistanis say that attacks on Indian government officials are rarely or never justified. Attacks on security-related personnel in India--policemen, intelligence agents, military and paramilitary troops--are rejected by a plurality.

Asked about the possibility of the government "putting pressure on India by supporting militant groups in occupied Kashmir," 37 percent favored it, while 26 percent opposed it and 37 percent did not provide an answer.

Overall both sides endorse their own governments' approach to the conflict over Kashmir, especially Pakistanis (Indians 57%, Pakistanis 68%). Only minorities on either side call for their government to take a harder or softer line on the Kashmir issue in its dealing with the other country.

This survey of the urban population of Pakistan was carried out by AC Nielsen - Pakistan using a questionnaire developed by WorldPublicOpinion.org. All interviewing was conducted in Urdu. A total of 907 face-to-face interviews across 182 primary sampling units in 19 Pakistan cities were carried out between September 12 and September 28, 2007. Sampling error for a sample of this size is approximately +/- 3.3 percentage points.

In India, the survey was carried out by Team C Voter, using a questionnaire developed by WorldPublicOpinion.org. A face-to-face survey with 1,258 urban respondents was conducted in two waves during October and November of 2007 in 10 of the largest metropolitan areas. India's population is approximately 30 percent urban. Sampling error for a sample of this size is approximately +/-2.8 percentage points.

166 Business and Politics in The Mulsim world Opinion Polls Weekly Report M. Zubair Week July 21-27, 2008 Presentation: July 29, 2008 Introduction Summary West Europe Obama Would Carry Western Europe Fewer Norwegians Support Afghan Mission Britons Regret Military Engagement in Iraq Global Terrorism is Main Enemy for French Tories Stumble, Keep Lead in Britain East Europe Corruption is Widespread for Most Russians Belarusians Nix Adopting Russian Rouble North America Canadians Appear Conflicted by Globalization Many Canadians Want to Renegotiate NAFTA More Americans Want Third Major Party South America Argentineans Unite Against Kirchner Unemployment is Key Challenge for Paraguayans Africa South Africans Grow Unhappy with Mbeki Global Warming Evident for South Africans Australasia Australians Willing to Act to Curb Climate Change East Asia Discontent with Arroyo Grows in the Philippines Cambodians to Vote, but Dissatisfied With Their Democracy

167 The Chinese Celebrate Their Roaring Economy, As They Struggle With Its Costs

Introduction

This week report consists of eighteen surveys. Four of these surveys are of global significance while fourteen are of national significance for the respective countries.

Political issues

On the political front last week survey reports have been mostly focused on U.S. presidential election and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan though several other political issues also appeared in the reports.

Senator Obama is leading the race for the White House by a small margin in U.S. But in other parts of the world he is found to be more popular than McCain by polling organizations. Europe is clearly backing Obama. Gallup USA and Pew Research Center reports show that European publics are highly supportive of Obama as compared to McCain. So was the case in some of the Asian nations who have been surveyed in this regard. Only Israel is the exception where more people are supportive of McCain than Obama.

Opposition to missions in Afghanistan and Iraq is also rising and a demand for withdrawal of forces is increasing. This trend is becoming more and more obvious with the every passing day. Public in allied countries is demanding the timetable for withdrawal of forces from Iraq especially. Over the weeks we have seen that people in Britain, Canada, Spain, Italy, Poland, and USA are turning in favor of withdrawal of forces.

Dissatisfaction with Mbeki, Arroyo, Kirchner, and Brown is increasing in their countries and they are getting more and more unpopular.

Economic issues

The trend regarding economic pessimism is continuing and we can place Paraguay in the list of the countries where people feel pessimistic about their country’s economy.

The trend that Dough Miller termed as “protect me globalist” is quite obvious with last week Angus Reid Strategies survey in Canada where publics see advantages of globalization but its harm to their country as well.

Chinese are getting more optimistic on the eve of Beijing Olympics. In comparison to previous years surveys today their level of satisfaction with their economy and the way

168 things are going in their country is very high. But they also feel the problme of rising prices and increasing rich and poor gap.

Social issues

Environmental concern is quite widespread and it is not just confined to the rich countries. As we see people in South Africa also shows their concern about the issue. Like several other nations, Australians are also ready to take steps regarding the environmental problem. They are highly supportive of the idea of limiting the harmful gases and are ready to pay even higher prices of different commodities in this regard.

Summary

West Europe

Obama Would Carry Western Europe

Adults in three European nations want Barack Obama to win this year’s presidential election in the United States, according to a poll by Gallup. At least 60 per cent of respondents in Britain, France and Germany would personally rather see the Democratic candidate as the victor.

July 28, 2008

Fewer Norwegians Support Afghan Mission

Backing for Norway’s military engagement in Afghanistan has dwindled, according to a poll by Norstat released by NRK. 42 per cent of respondents support Norway’s participation in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), down 15 points since January.

July 26, 2008

Britons Regret Military Engagement in Iraq

The vast majority of people in Britain believe their country should have never committed troops to the war in Iraq, according to a poll by Communicate Research published in The Independent. 66 per cent of respondents share this view, and 74 per cent think British troops should be called back from Iraq as soon as possible.

July 28, 2008

Global Terrorism is Main Enemy for French

169 Two-thirds of people in France think international terrorism is a major threat to their country, according to a poll by Ifop published in Le Journal du Dimanche. 66 per cent of respondents share this view, while 45 per cent believe Islamism is one of the main enemies of France.

July 24, 2008

Tories Stumble, Keep Lead in Britain

Britain’s most popular party has lost support this month but remains strong, according to a poll by Populus published in The Times. 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition Conservative party in the next election to the House of Commons, down four points since early June.

July 23, 2008

East Europe

Corruption is Widespread for Most Russians

Many people in Russia hold negative views on the behaviour of their government officials, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 29 per cent of respondents say practically every official is corrupt, while 47 per cent think the majority of them are, up four points since July 2007.

July 24, 2008

Belarusians Nix Adopting Russian Rouble

Most people in Belarus are against adopting the Russian currency to simplify transactions between the bi-national union, according to a poll by the Independent Institute for Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS). 66.7 per cent of respondents disagree with the Russian rouble becoming the unified currency— especially if only Russia is allowed to issue it.

July 23, 2008

North America

Canadians Appear Conflicted by Globalization

Adults in Canada hold complex views on globalization, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 68 per cent of respondents claim globalization has led to job losses in the country, but 62 per cent think it is beneficial to Canada’s economy. July 22, 2008

170 Many Canadians Want to Renegotiate NAFTA

Public support for the reassessment of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has increased in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 52 per cent of respondents think their country should do whatever is necessary to renegotiate the terms of the commerce deal, up seven points since March. July 22, 2008

More Americans Want Third Major Party

Many adults in the United States are voicing support for a new option in the country’s political scene, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. 56 per cent of respondents believe the U.S. should have a third major political party in addition to the Democrats and Republicans, up six points since June 2004.

July 22, 2008

South America

Argentineans Unite Against Kirchner

The level of dissatisfaction with Argentinean president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has spiked recently, according to a poll by Management & Fit. 71.8 per cent of respondents disapprove of Mrs. Kirchner’s performance, up ten points since April.

July 25, 2008

Unemployment is Key Challenge for Paraguayans

Many people in Paraguay want the new government to focus on creating more jobs, according to a poll by GEO and Transparencia Paraguay. 38.6 per cent of respondents think unemployment should the main priority for the administration. July 23, 2008

Africa

South Africans Grow Unhappy with Mbeki

Fewer people in South Africa hold positive views on Thabo Mbeki, according to a poll by Research Surveys. 32 per cent of respondents think Mbeki is doing a good job president, down five points since April.

July 28, 2008

171 Global Warming Evident for South Africans

The vast majority of people in South Africa think global warming is visibly affecting the earth, according to a poll by TNS Research Surveys. 70 per cent of respondents believe climate change is already having a big effect on the world’s weather. July 24, 2008

Australasia

Australians Willing to Act to Curb Climate Change

The vast majority of Australians want their government to introduce policies to tackle climate change without waiting for consensus with other countries, according to a poll by AC Nielsen published in the Sydney Morning Herald. 77 per cent of respondents say Australia should begin cutting its greenhouse gas emissions regardless of what other countries do.

July 26, 2008

East Asia

Discontent with Arroyo Grows in the Philippines

Most people in the Philippines are unhappy with Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, according to a poll by Social Weather Stations. 60 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with their president’s performance, up six points since March. July 25, 2008

Cambodians to Vote, but Dissatisfied With Their Democracy

A Gallup Poll of Cambodians shows most voters (74%) are either somewhat or very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in their country, suggesting many may have resigned themselves to the likelihood that longtime Prime Minister Hun Sen's party will coast to re-election Sunday.

July 25, 2008

The Chinese Celebrate Their Roaring Economy, As They Struggle With Its Costs

On the eve of Beijing Olympics, the Chinese people express extraordinary levels of satisfaction with the way things are going in their country and with their nation's economy. With more than eight-in-ten having a positive view of both, China ranks number one among 24 countries on both measures in the 2008 survey by the Pew Research Center's Pew Global Attitudes Project.

172 July 22, 2008

West Europe

Obama Would Carry Western Europe

July 28, 2008

Support for Republican John McCain stands at 15 per cent in Britain, 10 per cent in Germany, and four per cent in France.

McCain has become the presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee in 2008, while Obama clinched the Democratic Party’s nomination on Jun. 3.

On Jul. 23, German chancellor Angela Merkel described Obama as "well-equipped— physically, mentally and politically."

U.S. president George W. Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Who would you personally rather see elected president of the United States?

BRI FRA GER

Barack Obama (D) 60% 64% 62%

John McCain (R) 15% 4% 10%

Don’t know / Refused 25% 32% 27%

Source: Gallup Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,001 British adults, conducted from Jun. 4 to Jun. 24, 2008. Telephone interviews with 1,006 French adults, conducted from Jun. 5 to Jun. 20, 2008. Telephone interviews with 1,011 German adults, conducted from May 20 to Jun. 24, 2008. Margin of error for each sample is 3 per cent.

Fewer Norwegians Support Afghan Mission

173 July 26, 2008

Close to 500 Norwegian soldiers are currently present in Afghanistan, working with ISAF. Last year alone, Norway pledged close to $91 million U.S. in aid for reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan.

At least 889 coalition soldiers have died in Afghanistan—including three Norwegians— either in support of the United States-led Operation Enduring Freedom or as part of ISAF.

In March, the United Nations (UN) appointed Kai Eide, a Norwegian diplomat, to work with NATO to improve military and reconstruction efforts. On Jul. 15, Australian defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon said Eide is vital to the mission, declaring, "His work is critical across the nation in terms of marrying the military and non-military efforts and getting better coordination between the various aid agencies and non-government organizations."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose Norway’s participation in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Afghanistan?

Jan. Jul. 2008 2008

Support 42% 57%

Oppose 45% 32%

Not sure 13% 11%

Source: Norstat / NRK Methodology: Telephone interviews with 930 Norwegian adults, conducted from Jun. 24 to Jul. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

174

Britons Regret Military Engagement in Iraq

July 28, 2008

During the tenure of British prime minister Tony Blair, Britain committed troops to both the war on terrorism in Afghanistan and the United States-led coalition effort in Iraq. The conflict against Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq was launched in March 2003. At least 4,439 soldiers have died during the military operation in Iraq, including 176 Britons.

On Jul. 22, British prime minister Gordon Brown said that Iraqi forces will take control of Basra—where there is a heavy presence of British soldiers—by the end of 2008, but warned that the soldiers leaving that area will not go home, but instead will be transferred to somewhere else in Iraq. Brown said Britain will keep 4,100 soldiers in Iraq, adding, "Of course, future decisions will be based—as I have always said—on the advice of our military commanders on the ground. But just as last year we moved from combat to ‘overwatch’, we would expect a further fundamental change of mission in the first months of 2009."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Not Agree Disagree sure

Britain should never have become involved in Iraq 66% 26% 8%

British troops should be withdrawn from Iraq as soon as 74% 18% 9% possible

Source: Communicate Research / The Independent Methodology: Interviews with 1,016 British adults, conducted on Jul. 16 and Jul. 17, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Global Terrorism is Main Enemy for French

July 24, 2008

175 Two-thirds of people in France think international terrorism is a major threat to their country, according to a poll by Ifop published in Le Journal du Dimanche. 66 per cent of respondents share this view, while 45 per cent believe Islamism is one of the main enemies of France.

Less than one-third of respondents cite small countries with nuclear weapons, China, the United States, and Russia as enemies to France.

Earlier this month, the New York-based Human Rights Watch organization released a report, claiming that France’s counter-terrorism policies are putting the country "on the wrong side of the law." The document accused French authorities of charging suspects based on weak evidence, and of using a principle of "guilt by association" to interrogate hundreds of citizens.

Guillaume Didier, spokesman for France’s Justice Ministry, responded to the report, saying, "Our judicial anti-terrorist system is exemplary, accepted as a model around the world, notably because it lets justice intervene while respecting the rights of the individual. We can catch terrorists before they act."

Separatist armed group Basque Motherland and Liberty (ETA) has killed more than 840 people since 1959, in the fight to form an independent state encompassing the Spanish regions of Navarra and the Basque Country, as well as areas in southwestern France. In May, Francisco Javier López Peña, considered as one of ETA’s key leaders, was arrested in France along with five other suspects.

Polling Data

Among the following, which, according to you, are the main enemies of France in the world? (Three answers allowed)

International terrorism 66%

Islamism 45%

Small countries that possess nuclear arms 32%

China 28%

The United States 14%

Russia 4%

Other / No answer 2%

176 Source: Ifop / Le Journal du Dimanche Methodology: Telephone interviews with 960 French adults, conducted on Jul. 10 and Jul. 11, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Tories Stumble, Keep Lead in Britain

July 23, 2008

The governing Labour is second with 28 per cent, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 19 per cent. 12 per cent of respondents would vote for other parties.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. In October 2007, Cameron challenged Brown to call a snap election, but the prime minister later announced he would not hold an early ballot.

In December 2007, current parliamentarian Nick Clegg became the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, defeating environment spokesman Chris Huhne in a leadership ballot by just over 500 votes.

On Jul. 20, Cameron refused to discuss the fiscal decisions he would make in 2010—in the event he becomes prime minister—saying, "I will do what is right to make sure we have strong public finances. We have to look at everything. I accept that putting the public finances back into a good state is going to be one of the major tasks of this government—and the next."

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

If the general election was tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

177

Jul. 6 Jun. 8 May 4

Conservative 41% 45% 40%

Labour 28% 25% 29%

Liberal Democrats 19% 20% 19%

Other 12% 10% 12%

Source: Populus / The Times Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,507 British adults, conducted from Jul. 4 to Jul. 6, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

East Europe

Corruption is Widespread for Most Russians

July 24, 2008

Vladimir Putin was elected to a second term as president in March 2004 with 71.31 per cent of all cast ballots. In April 2005, Putin ruled out seeking a new mandate, saying, "I will not change the constitution and in line with the constitution, you cannot run for president three times in a row."

In November 2003, Putin authorized the establishment of an anti-corruption committee. The crackdown on illegal activity began in October 2003, when Mikhail Khodorkovsky—head of oil corporation YUKOS—was arrested on tax evasion and fraud charges.

Russian voters renewed the State Duma in December 2007. United Russia (YR)—whose candidate list was headed by Putin—secured 64.1 per cent of the vote and 315 of the legislature’s 450 seats. On that same month, Putin endorsed Dmitry Medvedev as a presidential candidate, and Medvedev said it would be of the "utmost importance" to have Putin as prime minister.

In March, Medvedev easily won Russia’s presidential election with 70.28 per cent of the vote. In May, Medvedev was sworn in as president. His nomination of Putin as prime minister was confirmed by the State Duma in a 392-56 vote.

178 Medvedev has talked of corruption as "a systemic challenge" and "a threat to national security." On Jul. 17, the Russian president said all civil employees must learn basic computer skills, both to improve productivity and make corruption "harder to hide." Medvedev issued an ultimatum to government employees, declaring, "They either should learn or, as they say, goodbye. We don’t hire people who can’t read and write. Computer literacy today is the same."

Polling Data

What do you think is the extent of bribery and corruption in Russia?

Mar. 2008 Jul. 2007 Apr. 2007

A few officials are corrupt 6% 7% 5%

Less than half of officials are corrupt 11% 12% 9%

The majority of officials are corrupt 47% 43% 47%

Practically every official is corrupt 29% 28% 34%

Hard to answer 7% 10% 5%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Mar. 14 to Mar. 18, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Belarusians Nix Adopting Russian Rouble

July 23, 2008

Belarus seceded from the Soviet Union in 1991. In 1994, independent candidate Aleksandr Lukashenko won the presidential election, boosted by his popularity after acting as chairman of an anti-corruption parliamentary committee. Lukashenko remains the country’s president to this day.

In late 1999, Lukashenko and then Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a bilateral treaty, where the two nations agreed to eventually merge their tax systems and currencies. The agreement affectively created the Union of Russia and Belarus.

179 In early 2007, Belarus and Russia’s relations were strained by a conflict over the price of oil and natural gas. Russia doubled the price of its gas—which Belarus largely depends on—and imposed a high duty on oil exports. Belarus responded by imposing an expensive tax on Russian gas in January. The impasse affected several European countries that depend on Russian oil exports, which are transported through Belarus.

In May, Dmitry Medvedev took over as Russia’s president, while Putin became the country’s new prime minister.

On Jun. 27, Pavel Borodin, secretary of state of the Union of Russia and Belarus, said the Union is ready to adopt the Russian rouble, declaring, "I think we finally introduce a common currency on the territory of Russia and Belarus. Concerning the final integration of the two states, I can say there is a will of the governments of the both sides, but much depends on the presidents."

Polling Data

Do you agree with the Russian rouble becoming the unified currency in the union of Belarus and Russia and that it should be issued by Russia alone?

Yes 23.0%

No 66.7%

Not sure 10.3%

Source: Independent Institute for Social, Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) Methodology: Interviews with 1,021 Belarusian adults, conducted from Jun. 2 to Jun. 12, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

North America

Canadians Appear Conflicted by Globalization

July 22, 2008

In addition, 74 per cent of respondents believe globalization creates new industries and jobs in developing nations, and 45 per cent think the process is gradually slowing down due to increased regulations, tariffs and environmental restrictions.

Since 1995, 152 countries have joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). Canada is a signatory of six commerce accords, including the North American Free Trade Agreement

180 (NAFTA) with the United States and Mexico, and bilateral deals with Chile, Costa Rica, Israel, Peru and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).

In January, Canadian finance minister Jim Flaherty discussed his views on global trade, saying, "As a government, we recognize that misguided barriers to foreign investment can end up shutting our own entrepreneurs out of new markets, and can only risk harming Canadian success abroad. At the same time, our government is committed to protecting Canada’s interests on those rare occasions when a particular investment might not actually be to our country’s benefit."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Not Agree Disagree sure

Globalization creates new industries and jobs in developing 74% 14% 12% nations

Globalization has directly led to job losses in Canada 68% 18% 14%

Globalization and international trade are beneficial to 62% 26% 12% Canada’s economy

Globalization is gradually slowing down due to increased 45% 32% 22% regulations, tariffs and environmental restrictions

Source: Angus Reid Strategies Methodology: Online interviews with 1,009 Canadian adults, conducted on Jul. 16 and Jul. 17, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Many Canadians Want to Renegotiate NAFTA

July 22, 2008

181 Conversely, 18 per cent of respondents want Canada to continue to be a member of NAFTA under the current terms, and 11 per cent believe the country should do whatever is necessary to leave the commerce deal.

In 1993, NAFTA brought Mexico into the Free Trade Agreement between Canada and the U.S. that had been in place since 1989. The accord eliminated import tariffs on goods circulating among the three countries.

When asked which country has benefited the most from NAFTA, only seven per cent of respondents mention Canada, while 46 per cent say the U.S. has come out ahead, and 30 per cent think Mexico has done better.

Last month, Arizona senator John McCain—the presumptive presidential nominee for the Republican Party in this year’s U.S. election—discussed trade during a speech in Ottawa, saying, "Since NAFTA was concluded, it has contributed to strong job growth and flourishing trade. Since the agreement was signed, the United States has added 25 million jobs and Canada more than 4 million. Cross-border trade has more than doubled since NAFTA came into force. We have established North America as the world’s largest economic market and the integration of our economies has led to greater competitiveness of American and Canadian businesses. Because of our common market, our workers are better able to compete, and to find opportunities of their own in the global economy."

Polling Data

Which of these statements comes closest to your own point of view?

Jul. Mar. 2008 2008

Canada should continue to be a member of NAFTA under the 18% 24% current terms

Canada should do whatever is necessary to renegotiate the terms 52% 45% of NAFTA

Canada should do whatever is necessary to leave NAFTA 11% 8%

Not sure 19% 22%

As you may know, Canada, the United States and Mexico have been partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) since 1994. Overall, which one of the three countries do you think has benefited the most from the agreement?

Jul. 2008 Mar. 2008

182 United States 46% 51%

Mexico 30% 22%

Canada 7% 8%

Not sure 17% 18%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies Methodology: Online interviews with 1,009 Canadian adults, conducted on Jul. 16 and Jul. 17, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

More Americans Want Third Major Party

July 22, 2008

In American presidential elections, candidates require 270 votes in the U.S. Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican incumbent George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia. As far as the popular vote is concerned, Bush garnered 51.03 per cent of all cast ballots, with Kerry getting 48.04 per cent.

In 1992, Ross Perot received 18.9 per cent of the popular vote as a third party candidate, but won no electoral votes. In 1996, Perot garnered 8.48 per cent of all cast ballots as the Reform Party nominee. Ralph Nader was the Green Party’s presidential nominee in 1996 and 2000, and ran as an independent / Reform Party candidate in 2004, garnering 0.34 per cent of the vote.

Earlier this month, former Georgia congresswoman Cynthia McKinney became the Green Party’s presidential nominee, declaring, "We are in this to build a movement. (...) A vote for the Green Party is a vote for the movement that will turn this country right- side-up again."

Polling Data

Some people say we should have a third major political party in this country in addition to the Democrats and Republicans. Do you agree or disagree?

183

Jun. 2008 Apr. 2006 Jun. 2004

Agree 56% 53% 50%

Disagree 38% 40% 43%

Not sure 6% 7% 7%

Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,004 American adults, conducted from Jun. 18 to Jun. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

South America

Argentineans Unite Against Kirchner

July 25, 2008

In October 2007, Fernández de Kirchner won the presidential election with 44.9 per cent of the vote as the candidate for the Front for Victory (FV). In December, Mrs. Kirchner succeeded her husband, Néstor Kirchner, as Argentina’s head of state. The outgoing president was praised for fostering an economic recovery after a major crisis in 2002. Fernández de Kirchner has vowed to address poverty and carry on with her husband’s fiscal policies.

In March, the Kirchner government introduced a variable tax on soybean exports, prompting an angry reaction by the country’s farmers. The levy replaced a fixed-rate tax and increased the price of soybeans. Farmers staged protests and organized roadblocks for several weeks. Grain shipments stopped completely, creating food shortages across the country. Despite a brief period of calm, the protests and organized roadblocks continued.

On Jul. 17, a Senate vote on the variable tax on grains finished in a tie. Argentinean vice- president Julio Cobos cast the tie-breaking vote, effectively killing the government bill. Cobos defended his choice, saying, "I am not betraying the president, but I am voting with my heart and I can’t vote in favour. History will judge me."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s performance as president?

184

Jul. 2008 Apr. 2008 Jan. 2008

Approve 19.7% 23.6% 51.5%

Disapprove 71.8% 61.8% 32.3%

Source: Management & Fit Methodology: Telephone interviews to 2,400 Argentine adults, conducted in July 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Unemployment is Key Challenge for Paraguayans

July 23, 2008

Crime is second on the list of key concerns with 19.9 per cent, followed by corruption with 18.1 per cent, the economic crisis with 8.5 per cent, public health with 4.1 per cent, and lack of justice with 3.5 per cent.

In April, Paraguayans voted in presidential and legislative elections. Fernando Lugo, a former Catholic bishop representing the left-leaning Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC), won the ballot with 42.3 per cent of the vote. Presidential candidates in Paraguay are not compelled to garner more than 50 per cent of the vote in order to win the election.

Lugo’s victory ended six decades of one-party rule in Paraguay. The National Republican Association - Red Party (ANR) had been in power since 1947, even during the dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner. Lugo is expected to be sworn in on Aug. 15.

According to official figures, Paraguay’s unemployment rate currently stands at 11.4 per cent.

In late June, Lugo expressed his willingness to create more jobs, saying, "Here not many people have had opportunities, especially the young. (...) My government will do everything it can" to tackle "growing poverty."

Polling Data

Which problem should be the main priority for the government?

Unemployment 38.6%

185 Crime 19.9%

Corruption 18.1%

Economic crisis 8.5%

Public health 4.1%

Lack of justice 3.5%

Source: GEO / Transparencia Paraguay Methodology: Interviews to 1,200 Paraguayan adults, conducted from May 16 to Jun. 10, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Africa

South Africans Grow Unhappy with Mbeki

July 28, 2008

Mbeki replaced Nelson Mandela as South Africa’s president after the 1999 general election, where the African National Council (ANC) received 66.4 per cent of the vote. Mbeki led the ANC to a second majority government in April 2004, with 69.68 per cent of all cast ballots and 279 lawmakers in the 400-seat National Assembly.

South Africans will renew their legislature and choose a new president next year. In January, Jacob Zuma—currently the ANC president—was named as the party’s presidential candidate.

On Jul. 24, Rok Ajulu, a political analyst, denied that the recent resignation of two politicians close to Mbeki is related to the removal of Mbeki supporters within the ANC by Zuma loyalists, and explained: "That situation should be put in a broader context to be understood properly. A few weeks ago, the African National Congress national executive committee decided that they were going to relieve Ibrahim Rasool, the premier of Western Cape, and Nosimo Balindlela, the premier of Eastern Cape, because of what were perceived to be lack of performance on their part. But those two premiers happened to be from two provinces which supported Thabo Mbeki at the Polokwane Conference. (...) So, it is not surprising that this has been seen as a purge of pro-Mbeki supporters."

Polling Data

Would you say Thabo Mbeki is doing a good job, or a bad job?

186

Jun. 2008 Apr. 2008 Nov. 2007

Good job 32% 37% 43%

Bad job 56% 51% 45%

Don’t know 12% 12% 12%

Source: Research Surveys Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,000 South African adults in seven major metropolitan areas, conducted in June 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Global Warming Evident for South Africans

July 24, 2008

In 1998, several countries agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, a proposed amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The agreement commits nations to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. South Africa adhered to the Kyoto Protocol in 2002.

On Jul. 21, South African environment minister Marthinus van Schalkwyk warned that global warming is affecting the ecosystem of the renowned Kruger National Park and said many of the animal species living there could face extinction as a result, adding, "If the phenomenon continues unabated, the damage to one of South Africa’s most celebrated and popular conservation and tourism areas could be shattering." Van Schalkwyk urged for "global action" to curb climate change.

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? - "Climate change is already having a big effect on the world’s weather."

Agree 70%

187 Disagree 15%

Not sure 16%

Source: TNS Research Surveys Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,000 South African adults in seven major metropolitan areas, conducted in February 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Australasia

Australians Willing to Act to Curb Climate Change

July 26, 2008

Additionally, 68 per cent of respondents say they are prepared to pay more for goods and services as a result of the new greenhouse gas policies.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the Australian Labor Party (ALP) 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Rudd signed the Kyoto Protocol immediately after being sworn in, delivering on one of his electoral promises. In March 2008, the Kyoto Protocol came into effect.

Earlier this month, Pope Benedict XVI—the maximum authority of the Catholic Church—visited Australia and referred to global warming as the result of society’s "insatiable hunger" for consumption. The Pope praised the Australian government’s policies, calling them a "serious commitment to address its responsibility to care for the natural environment."

Polling Data

188 Do you think Australia should press ahead and cut its greenhouse gas emissions, regardless of what other countries do?

Yes 77%

No 19%

Not sure 4%

Greenhouse gas abatement would cause the price of goods and services to increase. Are you prepared to pay more?

Yes 68%

No 24%

Not sure 8%

Source: AC Nielsen / The Sydney Morning Herald Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,400 Australian voters, conducted from Jul. 17 to Jul. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

East Asia

Discontent with Arroyo Grows in the Philippines

July 25, 2008

Arroyo took over as president in January 2001, following the resignation of Joseph Estrada. Arroyo won a six-year term in the June 2004 presidential election, garnering 39.99 per cent of all cast ballots.

In 2006, seven impeachment complaints filed against Arroyo were dismissed by a congressional committee, but one was deemed "sufficient in form." The document accused Arroyo of vote-rigging, corruption, condoning political killings and violating the constitution to repress dissent. In August 2006, the impeachment complaint was dismissed. The Constitution establishes that only one bid to oust the head of state can be filed each year.

In May 2007, voters in the Philippines renewed the House of Representatives and one half of the Senate. Final results gave seven of the 12 upper house seats at stake to

189 Genuine Opposition (GO) candidates, followed by the pro-government Team Unity (TU) with three, and two independents.

Arroyo is due to deliver her yearly state of the nation address on Jul. 28. Earlier this month, the anti-poverty advocacy group Social Watch Philippines (SWP) urged the president to give an honest account of the actual state of affairs in the Philippines rather that highlight what her government has done. The SWP’s Leonor Briones declared: "The power of poor people’s money to buy food diminishes as inflation continues to rise and cause the swelling prices of rice, food items and oil. President Arroyo can begin effective economic management by starting with being truthful on the state of the Philippine economy and the plight of the Filipino people."

Polling Data

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as president?

Jun. 2008 Mar. 2008 Dec. 2007

Satisfied 22% 27% 32%

Dissatisfied 60% 54% 48%

Source: Social Weather Stations Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,200 Filipino adults, conducted from Jun. 27 to Jun. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

July 25, 2008

Cambodians to Vote, but Dissatisfied With Their Democracy

Voters may be reluctant to risk leadership change

190

Political analysts fear a big win for Hun Sen's Cambodia People's Party (CPP) could potentially deal a blow to the country's multiparty system. Gallup's data suggest Cambodians may be reluctant to risk leadership change. Compared with where they said Cambodia stood at the time of the last national election five years ago, citizens are relatively positive about where they think their country stands today and will stand in the future.

191

Cambodians' outlook on the state and direction of their nation likely reflect heady economic times in the past 10 years. The country's GDP growth has been robust over the past decade, expanding roughly 10% or more since 2003, and a flood of foreign investment and aid has helped finance a construction boom. In August 2007, 69% of Cambodians told Gallup that economic conditions in the nation were good, and 62% said conditions were getting better.

192

However, the nation's stellar economic growth has not necessarily generated benefits for all its citizens. Only 37% of Cambodians said the government's economic reforms over the past 10 years are perceived as mostly good for the country, while 29% said they are perceived as mostly bad and 34% had no opinion. What's more, only about a quarter of those with an opinion about the government's reforms said they expected benefits for most (16%) or nearly all (8%) of Cambodians.

193

Cambodians surveyed also expressed relatively more optimism about their current and future personal situations, but to a lesser degree than they did about their nation's prospects.

194

That Cambodia remains one of the poorest nations around the globe is evident in the large percentages of residents who said they struggled to afford food and to survive on their earnings -- even before inflation and food prices soared in 2008. Fifty-eight percent of Cambodians said they were unable to buy food for their families at times in the past year, which is the second-highest percentage recorded in Southeast Asia after the Philippines (64%). More than two in three Cambodians said they were finding it difficult (50%) or very difficult (17%) to get by on their household incomes.

Many Cambodians have noticed some improvement in their personal situations, however. While a majority of residents (57%) said they are dissatisfied with their standard of living -- all that they can buy and do -- they were more likely to say their standard of living was getting better (40%) rather than getting worse (23%).

Even if Hun Sen's CPP wins an easy victory Sunday, observers expect maintaining stability in the country may prove difficult given higher overall food prices and soaring inflation gripping so many Asian countries, including Cambodia.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,001 adults living in Cambodia, aged 15 and older, conducted in August 2007. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

195 The Chinese Celebrate Their Roaring Economy, As They Struggle With Its Costs

Near Universal Optimism About Beijing Olympics

07.22.08

As they eagerly await the Beijing Olympics, the Chinese people express extraordinary levels of satisfaction with the way things are going in their country and with their nation's economy. With more than eight-in-ten having a positive view of both, China ranks number one among 24 countries on both measures in the 2008 survey by the Pew Research Center's Pew Global Attitudes Project. These findings represent a dramatic improvement in national contentment from earlier in the decade when the Chinese people were not nearly as positive about the course of their nation and its economy.

The new Pew Global Attitudes survey also finds that most Chinese citizens polled rate many aspects of their own lives favorably, including their family life, their incomes and their jobs. However, levels of personal satisfaction are generally lower than the national measures, and by global standards Chinese contentment with family, income and jobs is not especially high. Further, Chinese satisfaction with these aspects of life has improved only modestly over the past six years, despite the dramatic increase in positive ratings of national conditions and the economy.

196 In that regard, Pew's 2007 survey showed that the relatively low Chinese personal contentment was in line with the still modest level of per-capita income there - looking across the 47 countries included in that poll, life satisfaction ratings in China fell about where one would predict based on the country's wealth. The current poll takes a deeper look into how the Chinese people evaluate their lives and specific conditions in their country, providing further insight into the contrast between the average Chinese's satisfaction with the state of the country and its economy and relative dissatisfaction with elements of personal life.

The new data suggest the Chinese people may be struggling with the consequences of economic growth. Notably, concerns about inflation and environmental degradation are widespread. And while most Chinese embrace the free market, there is considerable concern about rising economic inequality in China today.

These are the latest findings from the 2008 Pew survey of China. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 3,212 adults in China between March 28 and April 19, 2008, a

197 period which followed the March 10 onset of civil unrest on Tibet and preceded the May 12 earthquake in China's Sichuan Province. The sample, which is disproportionately representative of China's urban areas, includes eight major cities, as well as medium- sized towns and rural areas in eight Chinese provinces. The area covered by the sample represents approximately 42% of the country's adult population.2

Almost universally, the Chinese respondents surveyed complain about rising prices - 96% describe rising prices as a big problem for the country, and 72% say they are a very big problem. And nearly half (48%) of those polled say health care is difficult for their family to afford.

But the Chinese are almost as concerned about equity in China as they are about inflation. About nine-in-ten (89%) identify the gap between rich and poor as a major problem and 41% cite it as a very big problem. Worries about inequality are common among rich and poor, old and young, and men and women, as well as the college-educated and those with less education. In that regard, despite economic growth, concerns about unemployment and conditions for workers are extensive, with 68% and 56% reporting these as big problems, respectively.

Complaints about corruption are also widely prevalent, with 78% citing corruption among officials and 61% citing corruption among business leaders. Six-in-ten also rate crime as a big problem. Concerns about both corruption and crime are widespread among all segments of China's population.

While corruption is seen as a problem, most Chinese (65%) believe the government is doing a good job on issues that are most important to them. However, poorer Chinese and residents of the western and central provinces covered in the survey give the government somewhat lower grades than do citizens in eastern China.

Environmental issues also emerge as a top problem and a top priority. Roughly three-in- four (74%) cite air pollution as a big problem and 66% so named water pollution. In

198 response, as many as 80% of Chinese think protecting the environment should be made a priority, even if this results in slower growth and a potential loss of jobs.

Free Markets and Modernity Embraced

Broad public recognition of China's growing pains notwithstanding, the polling found broad acceptance of China's transformation from a socialist to a capitalist society. Seven- in-ten say people are better off in a free market economy, even though this means some may be rich while others are poor. This sentiment is true across demographic groups, and even those in the low-income category believe in the benefits of the free market system.

The social changes in Chinese society that have accompanied the transformation and growth of the economy get a somewhat mixed review. On the one hand, about seven-in- ten (71%) say they like the pace of modern life. But on the other, many worry about vanishing traditions - 59% believe their traditional way of life is getting lost, while just 37% say these traditions remain strong.

The belief that traditional ways are being lost is less prevalent among rural residents, older people, and lower socioeconomic groups. Instead, those who tend to be on the cutting edge of China's rapidly modernizing society - the college educated (68%), 18-29 year-olds (67%), high income earners (67%), and city dwellers (65%) - are the most likely to see traditional ways disappearing.

On many of the most important issues facing China, discontent is associated with how people feel about free markets. Those among the 28%-minority who oppose the free market system are more likely than others to voice concerns about economic problems such as unemployment and conditions for workers. They are also more worried than

199 others about education and health care. Moreover, free market opponents have more lukewarm views about the Chinese government - only 53% believe the government is doing a good job on the issues that matter most to them personally, compared with 71% of those who support the free market.

Olympic Optimism

The Chinese are as upbeat about the Olympics as they are about their national economy. Fully 96% believe China's hosting of the games will be a success, and 56% say it will be very successful. While this survey was in the field, the Olympic torch relay was being hounded by demonstrations in Britain, France, the United States, Argentina and elsewhere, and these protests received considerable coverage in the Western media. However in China, press coverage of the relay might have been more positive, because despite the negative international publicity generated by these events, nearly all of those surveyed think the games will improve China's global profile - a remarkably high 93% say the Olympics will help the country's image around the world.

Most Chinese not only see the Olympics as important for their country, they also feel a personal connection to the games. Roughly eight-in-ten (79%) say the Olympics are important to them personally, and 90% feel this way in the host city, Beijing.

The Chinese public is also confident that their country's athletes will shine - 75% say the Chinese team will win the most medals, while only 15% believe the U.S., which brought home the most medals from the 2004 Summer Olympics, will win the medal count. Despite all the excitement, however, there are some signs of Olympic fatigue - 34% say too much attention is being paid to the games, up from 25% in 2006. This view is especially common in Beijing, where nearly half (46%) believe the Olympics are receiving more attention than they should.

200 Uneasy Foreign Relations

The Chinese public expresses a great deal of confidence about their nation's place on the world stage. In particular, most Chinese also recognize the growing impact their economy has on others around the world, and they believe it is a positive impact. Only 3% of Chinese think their economy is hurting other countries. This is very different from how Americans currently view the effects of their nation's economy - 61% say the U.S. is having a negative impact on other countries.

Overwhelmingly, the Chinese think their country is popular abroad - roughly three-in- four (77%) believe people in other countries generally have favorable opinions of China. However, the polling highlights significant tensions between China and other rival powers. Views toward Japan are especially negative - 69% have an unfavorable opinion of Japan, and a significant number of Chinese (38%) consider Japan an enemy. Opinions of the United States also tend to be negative, and 34% describe the U.S. as an enemy, while just 13% say it is a partner of China. Views about India are mixed at best - 25% say India is a partner, while a similar number (24%) describe it as an enemy.

Additional Findings

• China's "one-child policy" is overwhelmingly accepted. Roughly three-in-four (76%) approve of the policy, which restricts most couples to a single child. • Few Chinese have heard much about product recalls in their country - only 1% have heard a lot, while 15% have heard a little about this issue. • There is no consensus about what countries one can emigrate to in order to lead a good life, although Australia (22%), Canada (17%) and the United States (15%) are the top choices. • Most Chinese (77%) agree that "children need to learn English to succeed in the world today," but this is down substantially from 2002, when 92% agreed with this view.

201 • More than one-in-three Chinese report using the internet (38%) and owning a computer (36%), and one-in-four send email at least occasionally. The use of information technology is more common among the young, educated, wealthy and urban. • Television continues to be the primary source for national and international news for most Chinese (96% say it is one of their top two sources). Newspapers are a distant second (56%), and as in much of the world, readership is on the decline. • A small but growing number of Chinese are going online for news (13% name it as one of their top two sources), especially people with a college education and those under age 30.

202 Business and Politics in The Muslim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report Week July 28-August 03, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: August 05, 2008 Introduction Summary Middle East Netanyahu is Preferred PM for Most Israelis Israelis Think Olmert is Guilty of Corruption Iraqis Getting Eager to See Of U.S. Troops and Welcome Sovereignty East Europe Most Russians Say Medvedev Has No Power Czechs Assess Incidence of Political Corruption Russian Language Enjoying a Boost in Post-Soviet States since 2007 Serbs Oppose Extraditions to The Hague Karadzic A Criminal for Only 17% of Serbs Four-in-Five Russians Approve of Putin West Europe Britons Think Their Society is Broken South America Argentines Send Clear Message to Mr. Kirchner North America Canadians Keep Steady Views on Economy Majority of Americans Say Racism Against Blacks Widespread Animosity Against China Grows in U.S. Africa Kenyan Unity Government Fares Well 32 East Asia Cambodians Open to Foreign Investment Arroyo Fails To Recover Filipinos’ Trust

203 Introduction:

This week’s report consists of 18 surveys. All the surveys are of national significance for their respective countries except one which is of regional importance.

Political issues

Dr Steven Kull addresses the House committee on Foreign Affairs and presents his views on the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq. He tried to explain the situation in the light of various surveys conducted in previous year in Iraq. He says that majorities in Iraq want U.S. troops out within a year and believe this would improve the security situation there. Iraqis attitude is imperative for shaping pubic cooperation either with U.S. forces or insurgents. Iraqis sense of loss of sovereignty is shaping negative attitudes towards all aspects of U.S. presence in Iraq and they are now becoming eager to see U.S. forces off and re-establish their sovereignty.

Israelis continue to view Netanyahu as the most appropriate person for the office of PM of the country. P.M Olmert has lost almost any support he enjoyed since the corruption scandal came to the surface. Majorities now believe that he acted illegally and he should step down straightaway.

Pollsters have been focusing the U.S. Presidential campaign where now McCain has minimized Obama’s lead. These surveys have not been added in this week’s report as the situation was almost divided before a week and it is almost the same this week.

Serbs are divided on Radovan Karadzic extradition to Hague. Still a slight majority opposes extradition and believe him to be a hero. Five in ten oppose the extradition while four in ten support the extradition. Just over three in ten serbs believe him to be a hero while slightly less then two in ten (17%) believe him to be criminal.

In Russian majorites think Medvedev is the titular executive of the country while Putin is the real fountain of power. Nevertheless Putin continues to enjoy the trust of the public almost of the same level when he left the office of the President.

Gallup poll finds most Americans saying racism is widespread against blacks in the United States. This includes a slim majority of whites (51%), a slightly higher 59% of Hispanics, and the vast majority of blacks (78%).

Americans also see racial discrimination as a major or minor factor in four specific problems facing the black community -- lower average education levels for U.S. blacks, lower average income levels for U.S. blacks, lower average life expectancies for blacks, and a higher percentage of blacks serving time in U.S. prisons.

204 Racism is most widely believed to be a major reason for the higher percentage of blacks in U.S. prisons, and least likely to be seen as a primary factor in blacks' lower average life expectancies.

Raila Odinga enjoying popularity and confidence among Kenyans while Arroyo and Kircher are still facing no better than last month-strugling with their popularity and office.

Economic Issues

Perceptions about economy in Canada are becoming steady now. Since May 2008 there is no more increase in number of respondents who cite the economy to be growing worse. There has been just one percentage point increase in respondents who say the economy is improving.

Gallup's data indicates that Cambodians would likely welcome further investment in their country, but their ambiguity about whether it has been good for the people suggests many have failed to benefit and they don't expect that to change. One also feels is the sense of ‘protect me globalist’ in Cambodians response who welcome foreign investment but at the same time do not feel it can be beneficial for them.

Social Issues

Quite a majority in Britain is worried about the break up of their society. A two third majority in Britain believes their society is broken. Public cite various reasons for this. Three most prominent reasons include; increasing crime and anti-social behavior, immigrants, inflation and economic recession. Moreover drugs and pregnancy among teenagers are also supposed to be important causes.

Summary

Middle East

Netanyahu is Preferred PM for Most Israelis

Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu beats all of his potential contenders as preferred head of government in Israel, according to a poll by the Dahaf Institute published in Yediot Ahronot. In one scenario, 41 per cent of respondents say Netanyahu would be the most appropriate candidate to become prime minister. July 30, 2008

Israelis Think Olmert is Guilty of Corruption

205 The vast majority of people in Israel think Ehud Olmert is guilty of corruption and almost half want him to resign immediately, according to a poll by Maagar Mochot released by Israel Radio. After hearing the testimony of Moshe Talansky—one of the main witnesses in the case against Olmert—64 per cent of respondents think the prime minister acted illegally, and 48 per cent want him to step down right away.

July 29, 2008

Iraqis Getting Eager to See Of U.S. Troops and Welcome Sovereignty

Dr Steven Kull says that majorities in Iraq want U.S. troops out within a year and believe this would improve the security situation there. Iraqis attitude is imperative for shaping pubic cooperation either with U.S. forces or insurgents. Iraqis sense of loss of sovereignty is shaping negative attitudes towards all aspects of U.S. presence in Iraq.

East Europe

Most Russians Say Medvedev Has No Power

Few people in Russia think Dmitry Medvedev is really in charge of the country’s affairs, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. Only nine per cent of respondents say the real authority in the Russian Federation is in the president’s hands.

August 03, 2008

Czechs Assess Incidence of Political Corruption

Two-thirds of people in the Czech Republic believe their country’s public servants are not more corrupt than others, according to a poll by STEM. 68 per cent of respondents think the extent of corruption among Czech politicians is not higher than in western countries.

August 03, 2008

Russian Language Enjoying a Boost in Post-Soviet States since 2007

Since Putin decreed Year 2007 as year for Russian language favorable opinion towards Russian language has increased especially in Georgia, Maldova and Armenia. The number of Russian speakers has declined annually since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

August 01, 2008

206 Serbs Oppose Extraditions to The Hague

Most people in Serbia are against the extradition of suspects to the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague, according to a poll by the Strategic Marketing & Media Research Institute. 54 per cent of respondents share this opinion, while 42 per cent support the process. July 29, 2008

Karadzic A Criminal for Only 17% of Serbs

Many people in Serbia find it hard to label Radovan Karadzic, according to a poll by Strategic Marketing & Media Research Institute. 33 per cent of respondents think he is a hero, 17 per cent see him as a criminal, and 42 per cent say he is neither. August 01, 2008

Four-in-Five Russians Approve of Putin

Vladimir Putin maintains a high level of public support in the Russian Federation, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 80 per cent of respondents approve of their prime minister’s performance, down three points since June.

August 01, 2008

West Europe

Britons Think Their Society is Broken

Almost two-thirds of adults in Britain believe their country is in a state of crisis and many blame crime and immigration for it, according to a poll by YouGov. 64 per cent of respondents think British society is broken, while 23 per cent disagree. August 01, 2008

South America

Argentines Send Clear Message to Mr. Kirchner

The vast majority of people in Argentina think former president Néstor Kirchner should refrain from interfering in his wife’s administration, according to a poll by Ibarómetro published in Debate. 73.1 per cent of respondents disagree with Mr. Kirchner intervening in the current government.

July 29, 2008

North America

207 Canadians Keep Steady Views on Economy

Many adults in Canada keep positive views on their country’s financial situation, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 67 per cent of respondents rate the economic conditions in Canada as good or very good, while 30 per cent deem them bad or very bad.

July 29, 2008

Majority of Americans Say Racism Against Blacks Widespread

A recent USA Today/Gallup poll finds most Americans saying racism is widespread against blacks in the United States. This includes a slim majority of whites (51%), a slightly higher 59% of Hispanics, and the vast majority of blacks (78%).

August 04, 2008

Animosity Against China Grows in U.S.

More people in the United States regard China as a competitor rather than as a friend, according to a poll by Hart/McInturff released by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. 54 per cent of respondents think of the Asian country as more of an adversary than an ally, up four points in a year.

August 03, 2008

Africa

Kenyan Unity Government Fares Well

Most people in Kenya are satisfied with the performance of their main political leaders, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 75 per cent of respondents approve of Kenyan prime minister Raila Odinga, and 68 per cent are content with the work of Kenyan president Mwai Kibaki.

August 03, 2008

East Asia

Cambodians Open to Foreign Investment

208 August 04, 2008

Arroyo Fails To Recover Filipinos’ Trust

Few people in the Philippines are satisfied with Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, according to a poll by Pulse Asia. Only 22 per cent of respondents approve of their president’s performance—down one point since March—while 48 per cent disapprove of it.

August 03, 2008

Middle East

Netanyahu is Preferred PM for Most Israelis

July 30, 2008

Labour leader Ehud Barak is second with 14 per cent, followed by incumbent Ehud Olmert of Kadima with six per cent. 36 per cent of respondents say none of them would be a good head of government.

In a second scenario, Netanyahu is also first with 35 per cent, followed by foreign minister Tzipi Livni with 27 per cent, and Barak with 13 per cent. In a third scenario, Netanhayu leads again with 36 per cent, followed by Barak with 19 per cent, and transportation minister Shaul Mofaz with 18 per cent.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

209 Following calls for his resignation while the investigation continues, Olmert—who has been the subject of other corruption probes in the past—said that he will step down only if the attorney general decides to indict him. If the prime minister resigns, a snap election could take place, or another member of Kadima could take over as head of government.

In May 2006, Livni became deputy prime minister and retained the position of foreign minster. Livni is one of several political leaders who have called for Olmert to step down, along with Netanyahu.

On Jul. 28, retired Israeli Defence Foces (IDF) general Uzi Dayan announced that he would join Netanyahu’s Likud party and run for a seat in the Knesset. Dayan—the founder of the Turnaround (Tafnit) party—praised the Likud leader’s record on fighting corruption, declaring, "The Tafnit has decided to join the Likud, and the main thing is an agenda, and the agenda is a Zionist and Democratic Jewish state, restoring security, a strong and growing economy and education, and a clean and worthy governmental system."

Polling Data

Who is most appropriate to serve as prime minister?

Option 1

Benjamin Netanyahu 41%

Ehud Barak 14%

Ehud Olmert 6%

None of them 36%

Option 2

Benjamin Netanyahu 35%

Tzipi Livini 27%

Ehud Olmert 13%

None of them 22%

Option 3

Benjamin Netanyahu 36%

Ehud Barak 19%

210 Shaul Mofaz 18%

None of them 27%

Source: Dahaf Institute / Yediot Ahronot. Methodology: Interviews with 500 Israeli adults, conducted on Jul. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Israelis Think Olmert is Guilty of Corruption

July 29, 2008

The vast majority of people in Israel think Ehud Olmert is guilty of corruption and almost half want him to resign immediately, according to a poll by Maagar Mochot released by Israel Radio. After hearing the testimony of Moshe Talansky—one of the main witnesses in the case against Olmert—64 per cent of respondents think the prime minister acted illegally, and 48 per cent want him to step down right away.

On May 12, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime, but now Olmert is under investigation.

During Talansky’s cross-examination, the key witness claimed that he only gave money to Olmert in the form of loans, declaring, "Olmert was a mayor and a close friend and I tried to comply with his requests in any way possible. (...) When he said he would pay me back, I believed him. We had a close relationship, but he hasn’t spoken to me since becoming prime minister."

Polling Data

211 In the wake of the testimony of Moshe Talansky, is Ehud Olmert innocent or guilty?

Guilty 64%

Innocent 8%

Don’t know 28%

In the wake of the testimony of Moshe Talansky, should Ehud Olmert resign now or wait for an indictment?

Resign now 48%

Wait for indictment 42%

Don’t know 10%

Source: Maagar Mochot / Israel Radio Methodology: Telephone interviews with 511 Israeli adults, conducted on Jul. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Iraqi Public Opinion on the Presence of US Troops

July 30, 2008

Before House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight

Subcommittee Chairman Rep. Bill Delahunt: And next we have Dr. Steven Kull, the director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes testified during the kickoff in the wrap-up hearing for our hearings -- our inquiry, rather, into how the United States is viewed by the rest of the world.

I don't have the time to list his various expert qualifications as a pollster, because he has just one that counts to most the me: There's nobody that we trust more to interpret polling and focus groups results for us, and today he will address and educate us on Iraqi opinion about the issues surrounding the U.S.-Iraq agreement: timetables, withdrawals, sovereignty and the presence of U.S. forces.

Thank you again, Steve, for joining us.... Dr. Kull, would you please proceed?

DR. KULL: Thank you for inviting me to speak. Today I will be addressing the question of how the Iraqi people view the presence of US troops in Iraq and, more importantly, what they want to see happen in the future. As I will demonstrate, the Iraqi people are showing signs of impatience with the pace of US withdrawal.

212 Now one may ask why this matters. Obviously the Iraqi people will not be negotiating the agreements about US forces in Iraq. As long as the government wants US troops there, one may believe that it does not matter what the Iraqi public thinks.

However, it does appear that the Iraqi government is paying attention to the Iraqi public. As you probably know, 144 of the 275 members of Parliament signed a letter calling for a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops, citing as a key reason the attitudes of the Iraqi people. This call for a timetable was then reiterated in the June 3rd letter presented to the US Congress from representatives of the Iraqi Parliament. Just in the last few days Prime Minister Maliki has been increasingly aligning himself with this public pressure. This may well be influenced by the prospect of upcoming elections.

Thus, if the US government wishes to play a constructive role in the future of Iraq it behooves us to understand better the dynamics of public opinion and thus the forces of the political universe within which Iraqi leaders are operating.

Furthermore, Iraqis' attitudes about US forces are likely to affect their readiness to cooperate with coalition efforts to fight the insurgency, or even their readiness to support the insurgency. There is evidence that many Iraqis do support attacks on US troops and that this attitude is related to perceptions of US long-term intentions in Iraq. Thus dealing with these perceptions is critical to the success of the mission.

So turning now to the polling data: is the story simply that Iraqis want US forces to leave Iraq? I will indeed be presenting some data that say that Iraqis want US troops to leave within a near-term time frame.

But I will then show some data suggesting that their attitudes are not quite that simple: That there is some interest in a continuing relationship with US forces, but only in a context in which the relationship between the US and the Iraqi government is fundamentally changed from what it is now.

I will start with the most recent polling. In March of this year ORB conducted a poll for the British Channel 4, asking Iraqis what they would like to see happen with the Multinational Forces. Seventy percent said they want the Multi National Forces to leave, with 78 percent of this group wanting them to leave within six months or less and 84 percent within a year. Thus about six in ten of the whole sample said they want the troops out within a year or less.

In a poll conducted in February of this year for a consortium of news outlets led by ABC News, 73 percent said they oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq. Sixty-one percent said that the presence of US forces in Iraq is making the security situation in Iraq worse.

Iraqis have been asking for a timetable for withdrawal for some time now. At the beginning of 2006 WorldPublicOpinion.org found that 7 in 10 wanted US-led forces out

213 according to timetable of two years or less. About a year later 7 in 10 favored a timetable of one year or less.

In late 2006 the US State Department conducted polls in numerous major Iraqi cities and consistently found about two-thirds calling for the US to leave.

While some might think that the Iraqi people should be impressed with the results of the surge on stability in Iraq, most insist that they are not. In the Channel 4 poll only 26 percent said that the surge had succeeded while 53 percent said that it had not. The ABC News poll found only about a third saying that the surge had a positive effect on security and slightly over half said that it had made security worse.

Iraqis seem to shrug off concerns about the security implications of a US withdrawal. Asked by ABC News what impact it would have on the overall security situation "if American forces left the country entirely," only 29 percent say that it would become worse. Forty-six percent said it would get better and 23 percent said it would be the same. Asked about the British withdrawal from Basra, 6 in 10 say that the security situation there is the same or better. In the WorldPublicOpinion.org poll 58 percent predicted that if US-led forces were to leave Iraq inter-ethnic violence would go down, and 61 percent predicted that day-to-day security would improve.

Now, all this said, it would seem that the Iraqis are giving a pretty unequivocal message for US-led forces to leave Iraq within a fairly narrow time frame. However, there are other poll questions in which the Iraqi people express a desire for some degree of continued involvement.

The very same ABC News poll that delivered some of the harshest criticism of US troops also asked whether the US should have "a future role" in a number of areas. Remarkably high numbers said that it should. Seventy-six percent favored the US providing training and weapons to the Iraqi army. Eight in 10 favored the US participating in security operations against al-Qaeda or other jihadists operating in Iraq--something that would, of course, be at odds with the US completely withdrawing all its forces.

Support for non-military forms of involvement has also been high. The WorldPublicOpinion.org poll found 68 percent favoring "helping Iraqis organize their communities to address local needs such as building schools and health clinics."

More broadly, the Channel 4 poll asked Iraqis whether they want the US to play a larger or smaller role in the future of Iraq. Only 22 percent said they want the US to play a smaller role. The largest number--40 percent--said they want the US to play a bigger role and another 13 percent want America's role to remain the same as now.

So what is going on here? How is it that on one hand Iraqis think the presence of US troops makes the security situation worse and they should leave within a year, and on the other hand that it would be very nice if they were to train Iraqi forces and help with the security situation vis-Ã -vis al Qaeda?

214 Here is my interpretation. There are two frames through which Iraqis view US-led forces in their country. One frame--the weaker frame--is that security in Iraq is still fragile and that the US may be able to offer some aid to Iraq.

The other and more dominant frame is that the United States has effectively occupied Iraq. As early as 2004 Gallup asked Iraqis whether they primarily thought of coalition forces as liberators or occupiers. Seventy-one percent said occupiers.

In a variety of ways Iraqis signal that they do not feel that they have genuine sovereignty. In our September 2006 poll 77 percent said that they assumed that the US plans to have permanent bases in Iraq. More importantly, 78 percent said they thought that if the Iraqi government were to tell the US to withdraw its forces, the US would refuse to do so.

Our analysis of this poll found that frustration with this situation may be related to support for attacks on US troops. A disturbingly high 61 percent of Iraqis said that they approved of attacks on US troops. What was curious was that approximately half of these same people who approved of attacks on US troops said they did not actually want the troops to leave immediately. Rather, it appears that they supported the attacks because they thought it was necessary to put pressure on US troops to leave eventually.

So what does this suggest? It suggests that what is key here is that the US needs to address the feeling held by most Iraqis that they are not being treated as a sovereign power.

One way that has been widely discussed is for the US to set a timetable for withdrawal. This would make unambiguous that US troops will eventually leave.

Some have argued that a timetable would weaken the government because it would send a signal to the insurgents that the US is not determined to stay the course. However, WorldPublicOpinion.org has found that only one in four Iraqis appear to agree. Rather, 53 percent have said that a timetable would strengthen the government. Presumably this would be because it would contribute to the perception that the government is, or at least will soon be, the real power in the country.

More fundamentally, the US must find ways to show respect for the Iraqi government. It should be recognized that for the US to have such powers as the right to arrest and imprison Iraqis independent of the oversight of the Iraqi government weakens the perception that the Iraqi government is in charge. Most important, though, convincingly sending the message that the US will only be in Iraq as long as the government wants it to be is central. The idea proposed by Michael Matheson of basing the UN Mandate governing the presence of US troops on Chapter VI rather than Chapter VII could be a meaningful way of codifying that US troops are in Iraq at the will of the Iraqi government.

In closing, it is clear that the Iraqi people are quite eager for the US to lighten its military footprint in Iraq. More importantly it appears that they are eager to regain their sense of

215 sovereignty. As long as they do not have this sense, they are likely to continue to have a fundamentally hostile attitude toward all aspects of the US presence in Iraq. However, as Iraqis gradually regain this sense that their country belongs to them, they will likely move toward wanting some ongoing relationship with the US, both economic and military, to help them find their way out of this troubled period of their long history.

East Europe

Most Russians Say Medvedev Has No Power

August 03, 2008

Conversely, 36 per cent of respondents think power is in the hands of Medvedev’s predecessor and current Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, while 47 per cent believe both men are sharing the authority equally.

On Jul. 28, Putin accused coal and steel company Mechel of price-fixing and tax evasion, saying, "One company was exporting its product at a fraction of the domestic market price. (...) It is a reduction in the tax basis inside the country. It’s not paying taxes, it’s creating a shortfall on the domestic market, which means an increase in the cost of metals production."

Polling Data

In whose hands is the real authority in the Russian Federation placed right now?

Jul. 2008 Jun. 2008

In Medvedev’s hands 9% 17%

In Putin’s hands 36% 32%

216 Both equally 47% 40%

Hard to answer 8% 11%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Jul. 18 to Jul. 22, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Czechs Assess Incidence of Political Corruption

August 03, 2008

In June 2006, Czech voters renewed the Chamber of Representatives. The final tallies gave the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the Christian and Democratic Union - Czech People’s Party (KDU-CSL) and the Green Party (SZ) 100 seats in the lower house, with the remaining 100 seats going to the Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM).

The tie among rival factions led to a long political stalemate. In January 2007, Czech president Vaclav Klaus re-appointed ODS leader Mirek Topolanek as prime minister. Topolanek’s government eventually won a confidence motion in the Chamber of Representatives after a 100-97 vote.

In the Czech Republic, the president is elected by Parliament to a five-year term. The Czech president can return bills to lawmakers and grant pardons to convicted criminals, and also serves as the commander in chief of the armed forces. In February 2008, Klaus was re-elected by Parliament.

Earlier this year, Jan Rybar, head of the Czech police special investigation team—an elite unit dealing with the country’s most wanted criminals—was accused of corruption and abuse of power and was suspended from his duties. An investigation was opened into whether Rybar received money from a group of Vietnamese citizens in exchange for visas to enter the Czech Republic.

On Jul. 24, Sarka Pokorna—head of the Prague 1 state attorney’s office—commented on the case, saying, "[Rybar] is being prosecuted for indirect bribery and abuse of public office. (...) We are waiting for the outcome of the investigation. If he is cleaned of the suspicion, Rybar would be compensated for everything he lost as the result of his suspension. However, if he is convicted he will be dismissed from the police."

217 Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statement? - "The extent of corruption among Czech politicians and civil servants is higher than in western countries."

Agree 32%

Disagree 68%

Source: STEM Methodology: Interviews with 1,244 Czech voters, conducted from Jul. 13 to Jul. 23, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

August 1, 2008

Russian Language Enjoying a Boost in Post-Soviet States since 2007

Attitudes more favorable in Georgia, Moldova, and Armenia

Former president Vladimir Putin decreed 2007 as "The Year of the Russian Language." The declaration was not merely ceremonial -- the number of Russian speakers has declined annually since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Gallup Polls reveal increasingly favorable attitudes toward learning the Russian language in several post-Soviet states, most notably in Georgia, Moldova, and Armenia.

218

Russia is currently one of the top 10 spoken languages in the world, but some estimate the number of people speaking Russian is declining. In many Central and Eastern European countries, older generations often associate Russian with compulsory lessons under communism. Throughout the post-Soviet years, Moscow has stressed the significance of the Russian language as one of communication and trust, of great literature, and of global science. In contrast, some opponents have branded it as a remnant of imperialism, and they have encouraged a new generation toward fluency in their own national language.

Despite the prolonged tension between Moscow and Tbilisi, in Georgia, 64% of respondents said it is "very important" for Georgian children to learn Russian, compared with the 43% who said so in 2006. In March 2007, shortly before the Gallup survey, the

219 Russian Embassy in Tbilisi expressed interest in opening a Russian language school in the hopes of renewing declining interest in the language among Georgian youth.

In Moldova, the percentage of respondents saying it is very important for their children to learn Russian rose 12 percentage points, from 27% to 39%, between 2006 and 2007. This likely reflects a thaw between Moscow and Chisinau (Kishinev) resulting from the return of Moldovan wines and meat to the Russian domestic market. Russia lifted the trade ban, which had put Moldova's economy in jeopardy, in November 2006.

Despite the small percentage of Armenian respondents (3%) who asked to take the survey in Russian, the percentage of respondents' saying it is very important for their children to learn Russian increased two points (from 73% to 75%) from 2006 to 2007.

Russian as the Mother Tongue

Gallup Poll results underscore the prevalence of national language use over Russian; when asked in what language they preferred to conduct the Gallup interview, only respondents in the Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus overwhelmingly chose Russian. Ukraine and Kazakhstan retain larger Russian populations. In Belarus, where the interethnic differences between the Belarusians and Russians are minimal, Russian is one of the official languages.

220

Bottom Line

"The Year of the Russian Language" was a momentous attempt to maintain the status of Dostoyevsky's language. But based on official language status, Russian has fallen substantially since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Russian language's official status is granted in only three of the countries surveyed -- Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. In three other countries -- Moldova, Ukraine, and Tajikistan -- Russian is identified as a "language of interethnic communication."

221 Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews conducted in 2006 and 2007 with approximately 1,000 residents, aged 15 or older, in each country. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Serbs Oppose Extraditions to The Hague

July 29, 2008

In March 2006, former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic died while awaiting trial in The Hague for sponsoring a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" which led to the deaths of thousands of Albanian residents of Kosovo, and forced hundreds of thousands more to flee to Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania.

On Jul. 21, co-founder of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) Radovan Karadzic was arrested in a Serbian police raid after being a fugitive for nearly 13 years. Karadzic is accused of crimes against humanity, genocide and war crimes. He is signalled as one of the architects of ethnic cleansing in Bosnia during the 1992-1995 civil war that followed Bosnia-Herzegovina’s secession from Yugoslavia.

On Jul. 25, Kosta Cavoski—a Belgrade University law professor who leads Karadzic’s defence team—dismissed the ICTY, saying, "The Hague tribunal is not a court, it’s a mockery of law and justice. (A trial there) would be a court-martial with the decision known in advance."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose the extradition of suspects to the tribunal in The Hague?

Support 42%

Oppose 54%

Not 4% sure

222 Source: Strategic Marketing & Media Research Institute Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Serb adults, conducted in late July 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Karadzic A Criminal for Only 17% of Serbs

August 01, 2008

In March 2006, former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic died while awaiting trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague for sponsoring a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" which led to the deaths of thousands of Albanian residents of Kosovo, and forced hundreds of thousands more to flee to Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania.

On Jul. 21, Karadzic—the co-founder of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS)—was arrested in a Serbian police raid after being a fugitive for nearly 13 years. Karadzic is accused of crimes against humanity, genocide and war crimes. He is signalled as one of the architects of ethnic cleansing in Bosnia during the 1992-1995 civil war that followed Bosnia-Herzegovina’s secession from Yugoslavia.

Yesterday, Karadzic made his first appearance at the ICTY and said he would act as his own lawyer, adding, "I have an invisible adviser but I have decided to represent myself. (...) I am not interested in having someone else read the indictment to me. I would rather receive the new indictment that has been announced and have sufficient time to study it and then have my initial appearance for that and enter my plea."

Polling Data

Do you consider Radovan Karadzic as a hero or as a criminal?

Hero 33%

Criminal 17%

Neither 42%

Not sure 8%

Source: Strategic Marketing & Media Research Institute Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Serb adults, conducted in late July 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

223 Four-in-Five Russians Approve of Putin

August 01, 2008

In addition, 70 per cent of respondents have a positive opinion of the way Russian president Dmitry Medvedev is doing his job, also down three points in a month.

Yesterday, Medvedev expressed concerns about the country’s investment climate, saying, "We’ve had enough of inspections and all sorts of raids. (...) In general, our law enforcement and state institutions should stop terrifying business."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Russian president Dmitry Medvedev’s performance?

Jul. 2008 Jun. 2008 May 2008

Approve 70% 73% 70%

Disapprove 23% 18% 20%

Do you approve or disapprove of Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin’s performance?

Jul. 2008 Jun. 2008 May 2008

Approve 80% 83% 80%

Disapprove 17% 13% 15%

224 Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Jul. 18 to Jul. 22, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

West Europe

Britons Think Their Society is Broken

August 01, 2008

When asked which aspects lead them to say that British society is broken, 57 per cent of respondents point to a high incidence of crime and anti-social behaviour, while 43 per cent state that too many immigrants are moving into Britain. Less than 30 per cent of respondents mention economic setbacks, problems among teenagers, misleading politicians, a widening wealth gap, and broken homes.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. Cameron has repeatedly said that in order to fix Britain’s "broken society", the country must elect a Tory government that would tackle the root causes of poverty and anti-social behaviour.

On Jul. 28, Conservative policy chief Oliver Letwin explained how Cameron intends to "fix society", saying, "I think there is now a tide running against Labour’s centralized, bureaucratic approach. Our vision of a post-bureaucratic age accepts that there is a profound role for the state—not in micro-managing but in creating frameworks to allow problems to be addressed, not in a way which increases demands on the taxpayer. (...) If we could lift people out of multiple deprivation, crime, drugs, worklessness and family breakdown, we would be able, over time, to significantly address the demands society places on the taxpayer."

Polling Data

Some politicians have described Britain as ‘a broken society’. Do you personally believe British society today is broken or not?

Yes, it is broken 64%

225 No, it isn’t 23%

Not sure 13%

When you say that British society is broken which two of these statements come closest to what you have in mind?

There is far too much crime and inconsiderate and anti-social behaviour 57%

Too many immigrants are coming into the country 43%

Inflation is high, and the economy is rapidly going into recession 28%

There is too much drug-taking, binge-drinking and pregnancy among today’s 22% teenagers

Politicians far too often mislead the public and actually tell lies 19%

There is a widening gulf between rich and poor 16%

There are too many broken homes and failed marriages 13%

Source: YouGov Methodology: Online interviews with 2,120 British voters, conducted from Jul. 23 to Jul. 25, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

South America

Argentines Send Clear Message to Mr. Kirchner

July 29, 2008

In October 2007, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner won the presidential election with 44.9 per cent of the vote as the candidate for the Front for Victory (FV). In December, Mrs. Kirchner succeeded her husband as Argentina’s head of state. The outgoing president was praised for fostering an economic recovery after a major crisis in 2002. Fernández de Kirchner has vowed to address poverty and carry on with her husband’s fiscal policies.

In March, the current government introduced a variable tax on soybean exports, prompting an angry reaction by the country’s farmers. The levy replaced a fixed-rate tax and increased the price of soybeans. Farmers staged protests and organized roadblocks

226 for several weeks. Grain shipments stopped completely, creating food shortages across the country. Despite a brief period of calm, the protests and organized roadblocks continued.

On Jul. 27, new cabinet chief of staff Segio Massa assured that he will "only take orders from Cristina Kirchner," adding that he doubts that Mr. Kirchner—who does not have an official post in the current government—would "ever call to give me an order."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with former president Néstor Kirchner intervening in the current government?

Agree 21.4%

Disagree 73.1%

Not sure 5.5%

Source: Ibarómetro / Debate Methodology: Telephone interviews with 700 Argentinean adults in Buenos Aires, conducted on Jul. 24, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

North America

Canadians Keep Steady Views on Economy

July 29, 2008

In addition, 47 per cent of respondents expect Canada’s economy to remain the same over the next three months, 41 per cent forecast a decline, and seven per cent predict an improvement.

In January 2002, the Canadian dollar was worth $0.61 U.S. In November 2007, the Canadian currency briefly surpassed the $1.10 U.S. mark. Canada has recorded ten straight budget surpluses—the only country in the G-7 to do so. Last month, the national

227 unemployment rate stood at 6.2 per cent, up from a 30-year low of 5.8 per cent in February.

On Jul. 16, Canadian finance minister Jim Flaherty dismissed concerns about possible setbacks, saying, "Canada’s economic future is bright and I say that based on the economic fundamentals of this country, which are solid. (...) Different experts have different views about the likely growth but it’s all on the plus side in terms of positive economic growth for Canada this year and next. We’re satisfied that we’re on track in terms of our budgeting for Canada, that we will continue to run a surplus in Canada and of course, a balanced budget."

Polling Data

How would you rate the economic conditions in Canada today?

Jul. 2008 May 2008 Mar. 2008

Very good 6% 8% 10%

Good 61% 60% 63%

Poor 27% 24% 18%

Very poor 3% 4% 4%

Not sure 3% 4% 5%

Over the next three months, do you think the Canadian economy will improve, remain the same, or decline?

Jul. 2008 May 2008 Mar. 2008

Improve 7% 6% 10%

Remain the same 47% 48% 54%

Decline 41% 41% 30%

Not sure 5% 5% 6%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies Methodology: Online interviews with 1,007 Canadian adults, conducted on Jul. 16 and Jul. 17, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

228

August 4, 2008

Majority of Americans Say Racism Against Blacks Widespread

More than three-quarters of blacks say racism against blacks is widespread

These results are based on a national sample of 1,935 U.S. adults, including large samples of more than 600 blacks and 500 Hispanics, weighted to represent their correct proportions in the U.S. population.

Racism is most widely believed to be a major reason for the higher percentage of blacks in U.S. prisons, and least likely to be seen as a primary factor in blacks' lower average life expectancies.

229

On all four issues, blacks are more likely than whites and Hispanics to see racial discrimination as a major factor. In fact, a majority of blacks say racial discrimination is a major reason each problem is occurring.

Whites are more inclined to view racial discrimination as a minor reason in three of the four areas, but a plurality of 44% of whites believe it is a major factor in higher prison rates for blacks.

230

Hispanics are more likely to see racism as a major rather than a minor reason why blacks have had worse experiences in these four areas. This includes a majority of Hispanics who view anti-black discrimination as a major factor in the higher prison rates among blacks.

Racism Against Whites?

Generally speaking, racism in the United States is thought of as a problem that victimizes blacks and members of other racial or ethnic minority groups. But that does not preclude

231 the possibility that members of minority groups could themselves harbor ill will against members of the majority racial group. Some could also label the result of affirmative- action policies as racism against whites if in fact minorities are given preferential treatment for jobs or other valued positions. The poll sought to find out whether Americans believe there is racism against whites.

In general, Americans reject the notion of anti-white racism, but not overwhelmingly. While a majority of adults think such racism is not widespread, 41% think it is. This includes roughly 4 in 10 whites, blacks, and Hispanics.

Partisan Differences

There are clear party differences regarding views of the extent to which racism against blacks exists in the United States, with Democrats most likely to say this problem is widespread, while Republicans generally disagree. It is possible that those differences have more to do with the link between race and party affiliation (blacks overwhelmingly identify themselves as Democrats) than between partisanship and one's racial attitudes. But these party differences are apparent even when looking at party within racial or ethnic groups.

On the question of anti-white racism, there are essentially no partisan differences.

232

Implications

The majority of Americans believe racism against blacks is common in the United States, particularly with respect to the fact that blacks are more likely to occupy U.S. prisons on a proportional basis. Although less than half of Americans see racism against whites as very common, roughly 4 in 10 believe it is.

As on most issues involving race in the United States, blacks are much more likely to see racism as a problem than are whites. However, other questions in the poll showed that Americans remain optimistic that race relations could improve, if Americans could hold an open national dialogue on race and if Barack Obama were elected as the first black president.

Survey Methods

For results based on the sample of 702 non-Hispanic whites, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 608 non-Hispanic blacks, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

233 For results based on the sample of 502 Hispanics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points (120 of the 502 interviews with Hispanics were conducted in Spanish).

Animosity Against China Grows in U.S.

August 03, 2008

In 1949, the People’s Republic of China was established as a one-party state. In the 1980s, the ruling Communist Party of China (ZGD) loosened a series of authoritarian restrictions and allowed private enterprise for the first time in decades. The country currently has one of the world’s fastest growing economies, becoming a global exporter and a very attractive venue for foreign investors.

In April 2001, a U.S. spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter. The incident led to strained relations between the two countries, which culminated with a vote in the House of Representatives in July 2001. American lawmakers vetoed reimbursing China for the 11 days the plane’s crew was detained, and refused to cover the cost of the aircraft’s repatriation.

In February 2005, U.S. president George W. Bush voiced his opposition to lifting the arms embargo imposed on China following the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators. Bush said such a decision "would change the balance of relations between China and Taiwan, and that’s of concern."

On Jul. 29, Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi visited Washington for the inauguration of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Yang praised former U.S. state secretary Henry Kissinger for "his energy and wisdom to advancing China-U.S. relations," adding, "The China-U.S. relationship has come a long way and achieved remarkable progress over the past 30 years. The growth of China-U.S. relations has not only brought huge benefits to the two countries and the two peoples, but also profoundly contributed to world peace and development."

Polling Data

Today, in general do you think of China as more of an ally or more of an adversary?

Jul. 2008 Jul. 2007

234 Ally 23% 28%

Adversary 54% 50%

Both / Neither 12% 13%

Unsure 11% 9%

Source: Hart/McInturff / The Wall Street Journal / NBC News Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted from Jul. 18 to Jul. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Africa

Kenyan Unity Government Fares Well

August 03, 2008

In addition, 65 per cent of respondents approve of the way the coalition government has performed after 100 days in office.

Kenyans voted in presidential and legislative elections in December 2007. Official results gave incumbent Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU) 46.64 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by opposition candidate Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) with 44.28 per cent.

Odinga’s camp complained about irregularities in the ballot count, claiming that Kibaki’s total was inflated by 300,000 votes. The allegations practically paralyzed Kenyan politics, and saw the return of violent incidents that had marred the electoral campaign.

By late Febuary, post-election violence in Kenya had claimed more than 1,000 lives. On Feb. 28—following the mediation by former United Nations (UN) secretary-general Kofi Annan—Kibaki and Odinga reached a preliminary power-sharing deal. The terms entailed the creation of the post of prime minister, who would "coordinate and supervise" government affairs. Kenya would also have two deputy prime ministers, one nominated by each member of the coalition.

Last month, British prime minister Gordon Brown pledged close to $4 million U.S. to fund peace-building efforts in Kenya. Brown referred to the convoluted presidential election while Odinga was visiting Britain, saying, "Only six months ago, Kenya stood on the brink of civil war. Kenya’s friends watched in fear as ethnic violence,

235 displacement and insecurity gripped the country. (...) Kenya stepped away from the brink. Partly due to the leadership of president Kibaki and prime minister Raila Odinga; partly due to the mediation efforts of Kofi Annan; and partly due to strong international support for reconciliation. But most of all because the Kenyan people turned their backs on violence and chose to work together."

Polling Data

Approval Ratings after 100 Days in Office

Prime minister Raila Odinga 75%

President Mwai Kibaki 68%

The coalition government 65%

Source: Steadman Research Services Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,012 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Jul. 6 to Jul. 11, 2008. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.

East Asia

Cambodians Open to Foreign Investment

Majority see benefits for economy, rather than people

Last week's election in Cambodia failed to meet international standards, but the political stability ensured with the ruling party's re-election may further encourage foreign investors. A Gallup Poll in Cambodia reveals that while most citizens would likely see more investment as a positive for the country's economy, they are less certain about its benefits for the people.

236

Nonexistent under the Khmer Rouge and the Vietnamese rule that followed, foreign investment in one of Southeast Asia's poorest nations has blossomed over the past several years, increasing twelvefold since 2004. Set to double this year from $2.7 billion in 2007, foreign investment has been a major factor in Cambodia's recent robust economic growth, which may help explain why many citizens see it as an economic boon for their country.

Cambodia's government generally does not restrict foreign participation in locally owned companies, which makes the country attractive to investors from abroad. Gallup's poll indicates that about half of Cambodians (51%) are also unopposed to foreign companies buying big companies in Cambodia, while just one-third (33%) say this should be prohibited. In fact, along with Filipinos, Cambodians are the most likely population in Asia to say the government should allow foreign acquisitions of big, local companies.

237

Despite their likelihood to feel foreign investment gives their economy as a whole an advantage, Cambodians are far less certain that economic reforms that include selling government-owned enterprises or encouraging foreign investment have been good for citizens themselves. Slightly more than a third of Cambodians (37%) told Gallup these reforms are mostly good for the country's people, while 29% said they were mostly bad and 34% didn't have an opinion. At the very least, the figures suggest that many Cambodians have failed to share in the prosperity that extraordinary foreign investment has brought their country.

238

Many Cambodians do not expect many of their fellow citizens to benefit from these reforms. Of those Cambodians who have an opinion about the economic reforms in their country, only about a quarter said they expected the policies to eventually benefit most (16%) or nearly all (8%) of Cambodians. Thirty-six percent expect about half of Cambodians to profit.

Bottom Line

With foreign investment expected to double this year, and the discovery and development of oil off Cambodia's coast, the country should be well-positioned to attract foreign investors when it launches its stock market late next year. Gallup's data indicates that Cambodians would likely welcome further investment in their country, but their ambiguity about whether it has been good for the people suggests many have failed to benefit and they don't expect that to change.

Survey Methods

239 Arroyo Fails To Recover Filipinos’ Trust

August 03, 2008

In May 2007, voters in the Philippines renewed the House of Representatives and one half of the Senate. Final results gave seven of the 12 upper house seats at stake to Genuine Opposition (GO) candidates, followed by the pro-government Team Unity (TU) with three, and two independents.

On Jul. 31, former president Fidel Ramos accused the Arroyo administration of failing to tackle a series of issues that he deemed as "ticking bombs" such as poverty, corruption, and overpopulation. Ramos declared: "Considering our depressed condition and lowered people’s morale, it is clear that uncoordinated quickie and populist projects will not work and be just a waste of time, resources and goodwill. Unless the long-term, multi- dimensional issues and global factors are squarely addressed now—and corrective measures faithfully undertaken without delay—Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s legacy, on balance, will continue to be one of decline not progress. You cannot postpone nor delay the solution of these problems."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s performance as president?

Jul. 2008 Mar. 2008 Oct. 2007

Approve 22% 23% 30%

Disapprove 48% 51% 39%

Source: Pulse Asia

240 Business and Politics in The Muslim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report Week August 04-10, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: August 12, 2008 Introduction Summary Middle East Israelis Ponder Livni’s Chances of Becoming PM West Europe French Willing to House Wallonia if Belgium Splits Greek Cypriots Open to Relations with North East Europe Russians Urge for Multi-Party Politics North America Exploring the Iraq Timetable Issue Nuclear Power Less Popular Than Other Energy Strategies Americans Remain Divided on Attacking Iran South America More Peruvians Favor Socialism Than Capitalism Mexicans Assess Mandatory Military Service Ecuadorians More Pessimistic About Future Australasia Australians OK Unilateral Climate Change Action Africa Zimbabweans’ Bleak Views of Economy Reflect Reality Global Polls China falling in the same pit as U.S. Mixed views of China across the world

241 Introduction

This week report consists of fifteen surveys. Two of them are global polls, two are regional affecting Western Europe and Middle East and the rest of national significance for their respective countries.

Political Issues

Beijing Olympics started last week. Various organizations have conducted opinion polls in China and about China across the world. Chinese are very enthusiastic about Olympics and as a result they have become more satisfied with state of their nation, its economy and direction of the country. They believe that they will be successful in holding Beijing Olympics and it will help China in improving its image in the world. But the publics around the world seem to grow more pessimistic in 2007 and 2008. Favorable opinion of China has declined in many countries especially in West Europe.

Many see China with the same lens as they see U.S. In half of the countries included in a 23 country survey of Pew, publics believe that China does not consider the interest of their countries and it reminds us the unilateralist image of United States. It is yet early to conclude that China is considered as negatively as U.S. in the world. Publics are still divided on the question if China is responsible for global problems like energy and food crisis or climate change.

Gallup poll suggests that Americans split down the middle on the complex issue of whether the United States should set an explicit timetable or target date for the removal of U.S. troops from Iraq -- when it is made clear that withdrawal is a given in either circumstance. This divide is evident in masses as well as in party lines. Democrats supporters are in favor of withdrawal with a set timetable while Republican supporters are also in favor of withdrawal but with out a set timetable.

Similar to divide on the issue of withdrawal of forces from Iraq, people in the United States have differing opinions on whether their government should take military action against Iran, according to a poll by Hart/McInturff released by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. 41 per cent of respondents think Washington should destroy Iran’s purported ability to make nuclear weapons, while 46 per cent disagree.

But the important point to note is that the number of respondents who are in favor of military action has met a seven point decline since 2006 while those who are against the attack have risen six points.

On the eve of Presidential elections in U.S. and the recent P.M elections in Russia publics demand for multiparty systems have increased. This show that in both of the world

242 powers people are not that satisfied with their political parties and especially in Russia- one party system is losing support.

Economic issues

There is an interesting gulf in Peru about the Peruvian perceptions about their economic orientation and of their country. Over half of Peruvians think themselves to be socialist but they think their country’s economic system if capitalist. The same views are prevalent in all the four major geographical units of the country (South, Lima, East and North) but are especially high in South. Until recently, it has been politically safe for Peruvian leaders to ignore the indigenous southern population because it consists of poor and remote residents largely disconnected from the rest of the country. However, the growing visibility of protesters and striking workers in the South suggests that may be changing. Peruvians aren't necessarily attracted to extreme forms of socialism; their low approval of national leaders in Venezuela (21%), Bolivia (28%), and Ecuador (31%) suggests otherwise. Nonetheless, more moderate socialist stances may resonate with many, especially in the South where regional populists such as Fuentes and Humala have deep wells of dissatisfaction from which to draw support.

The larger trend of economic pessimism is evident in Ecuador and Zimbabwe this week. Economic perceptions seem to be worse in Zimbabwe where more than nine in ten are not satisfied with their standard of living and economic situation of the country.

Social issues

On the social front pollster continued to publish polls about climate change issue. Last week polls show that Australians are really aware about the issue and they are ready even for unilateralist actions in this regard.

Summary

Middle East

Israelis Ponder Livni’s Chances of Becoming PM

People in Israel are divided on whether being a woman would harm or help foreign minister Tzipi Livni’s chances to become prime minister, according to a poll by Shvakim Panorama released by Israel Radio. 35.2 per cent of respondents think Livni’s gender will weaken her bid, while 30.8 per cent say being a woman will strengthen it. A quarter of respondents say the situation will not make a difference. August 09, 2008

243 West Europe

French Willing to House Wallonia if Belgium Splits

Many people in France welcome the idea of incorporating Belgium’s French- speaking component into their country, according to a poll by Ifop published in La Voix du Nord. 60 per cent of respondents would favour annexing Wallonia to France if Belgium separates.

August 06, 2008

Greek Cypriots Open to Relations with North

The vast majority of people in Greek Cyprus think it would be positive to reach out to the Turkish side of the island, according to a poll by Noverna published in Politis. 75 per cent of respondents say it is good to establish contacts with Turkish Cypriots—even before resolving a conflict over the island’s division. August 05, 2008

East Europe

Russians Urge for Multi-Party Politics

Many people in Russia think the country’s political scene should include at least two or three strong parties, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 45 per cent of respondents agree with this view, up five points since last year. August 07, 2008

North America

Exploring the Iraq Timetable Issue The results of a July 25-27 USA Today/Gallup poll suggest that Americans split down the middle on the complex issue of whether the United States should set an explicit timetable or target date for the removal of U.S. troops from Iraq -- when it is made clear that withdrawal is a given in either circumstance.

August 05, 2008

Nuclear Power Less Popular Than Other Energy Strategies According to a July USA Today/Gallup poll, the impact of a candidate's favoring greater use of nuclear power is mixed. Forty-seven percent of Americans say they are more likely to back a candidate who favors expanding nuclear power, while 41% say they are less likely to back such a candidate. But on a relative basis, the

244 nuclear option is near the bottom of a list of possible solutions to the energy situation.

August 07, 2008

Americans Remain Divided on Attacking Iran

People in the United States have differing opinions on whether their government should take military action against Iran, according to a poll by Hart/McInturff released by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News. 41 per cent of respondents think Washington should destroy Iran’s purported ability to make nuclear weapons, while 46 per cent disagree.

August 05, 2008

South America

More Peruvians Favor Socialism Than Capitalism A simple contradiction helps illuminate growing political tensions in Peru: About half of Peruvians (49%), according to a 2007 Gallup Poll in the South American nation, say they personally are more socialist than capitalist in their attitudes, while just 16% say they are more capitalist than socialist. However, 45% of Peruvians view their country as more capitalist than socialist, while just 24% say it is more socialist than capitalist. August 06, 2008 Mexicans Assess Mandatory Military Service

Adults in Mexico are divided on how their national military service should operate, according to a poll by Consulta Mitofsky. 41.2 per cent of respondents support the current provision that calls for a mandatory year of service for all men. August 09, 2008

Ecuadorians More Pessimistic About Future

The amount of people in Ecuador who think the South American country is going in the right direction has decreased over the past six months, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 39 per cent of respondents think Ecuador is on the right track, down five points since January.

August 05, 2008

Africa Zimbabweans’ Bleak Views of Economy Reflect Reality

245 Gallup Poll findings underscore the dire economic conditions in Zimbabwe as residents' assessments of their personal well-being declined from a mean score of 3.8 to 3.2 between 2006 and 2008, which represents a meaningful change.

August 05, 2008

Australasia

Australians OK Unilateral Climate Change Action

The vast majority of Australians is convinced that global warming is real, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 84 per cent of respondents believe climate change is currently occurring, and 60 per cent want Australia to introduce a carbon emissions trading scheme regardless of what other countries do.

August 07, 2008

Africa

Zimbabweans’ Bleak Views of Economy Reflect Reality Gallup Poll findings underscore the dire economic conditions in Zimbabwe as residents' assessments of their personal well-being declined from a mean score of 3.8 to 3.2 between 2006 and 2008, which represents a meaningful change.

August 05, 2008

Global Polls

China falling in the same pit as U.S. (Pew Research Center) While Chinese are confident that the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing will change the way their country is viewed, publics around the world are showing signs of apprehension about China's growing economic power, its role in foreign affairs and the safety of the products it exports. China is equally viewed as unilaterlaist as U.S.

August 05, 2008

Mixed views of China across the world

Globescan poll shows that publics around the world are somewhat divided on the influence of China in the world. They showed mixed views on China’s responsibility towards global problems (food & energy crisis, climate change) and its image as ally or enemy towards surveyed country.

August 07, 2008

246 Middle East

Israelis Ponder Livni’s Chances of Becoming PM

August 09, 2008

On May 12, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to prime minister Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Moshe Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime, but now Olmert is under investigation.

On Jul. 31, Olmert announced that he will not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership in September, which will effectively end his tenure. Whoever wins the leadership vote will form a new government. Livni is seen as a strong contender.

In May 2006, Livni became deputy prime minister and retained the position of foreign minster. She is one of many political leaders who have called for Olmert to step down.

Golda Meir is the only woman who has served as Israel’s head of government. She came to power as a member of the left-wing Mapai party in March 1969 and governed until her resignation in June 1974. She is remembered as Israel’s "Iron Lady".

On Jul. 7, Israeli finance minister Ronnie Bar-On, a senior member of Kadima and close ally of Olmert, endorsed Livni’s bid, declaring, "I will support deputy prime minister and foreign minister Tzipi Livni in her candidacy to lead Kadima and the next government."

Polling Data

Does the fact that Tzipi Livni is a woman strengthen or weaken her chances to become prime minister?

247 Weaken 35.2%

Strengthen 30.8%

No effect 25.5%

Don’t know 8.5%

Source: Shvakim Panorama / Israel Radio Methodology: Interviews with 502 Israeli adults, conducted on Jul. 30, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

West Europe

French Willing to House Wallonia if Belgium Splits

August 06, 2008

Many people in France welcome the idea of incorporating Belgium’s French-speaking component into their country, according to a poll by Ifop published in La Voix du Nord. 60 per cent of respondents would favour annexing Wallonia to France if Belgium separates.

In Wallonia, 49 per cent of respondents are in favour of incorporation, while 45 per cent disagree.

In Belgium, the northern region is inhabited by the Flemish-speaking Flemings—who make-up most of the country’s population—while the French-speaking Walloons inhabit the south. Bilingual Brussels is the federal capital. The Flemish provinces were part of the Netherlands until 1831, when the Kingdom of Belgium was established.

In June 2007, a federal election took place in Belgium. Final results gave the Christian Democratic and Flemish (CDV) / New Flemish Alliance (NVA) 30 seats in the Chamber of People’s Representatives. The election sparked a major political crisis, as CVD/NVA leader Yves Leterme failed to assemble a government. Ever since, many politicians and analysts have said there is a possibility of Belgium separating for good.

In December 2007, outgoing prime minister Guy Verhofstadt was given a mandate to form an interim government. On Dec. 21, Verhofstadt presented his cabinet, which included finance minister Didier Reynders and interior minister Patrick Dewael. This administration was to remain in office until Mar. 23, 2008.

On Mar. 20, King Albert II appointed Leterme as prime minister. The CVD/NVA leader heads a coalition government that includes the Flemish Liberals and Democrats (VLD) / Vivant (V), the Socialist Party (PS), the Humanist Democratic Centre (CDH) and the Reformist Movement (MR).

248 On Jul. 15, Leterme offered to resign after his cabinet failed to agree on proposed reforms that would grant more autonomy to both Flemings and Walloons. The prime minister declared: "It appears that the communities’ conflicting visions of how to give a new equilibrium to our state have become incompatible. (...) The federal consensus-model has reached its limits."

On Jul. 17, King Albert II rejected Leterme’s resignation, and urged for a "credible" dialogue, saying that the prime minister should "encourage as best as is possible" the debate over a potential constitutional reform.

Polling Data

Do you favour or oppose incorporating Wallonia into France if Belgium separates?

Wallonia France

Favour 49% 60%

Oppose 45% 37%

Not sure 6% 3%

Source: Ifop / La Voix du Nord Methodology: Telephone interviews with 510 French-speaking Belgian adults in Wallonia, conducted from Jul. 18 to Jul. 22, 2008. Telephone interviews with 955 French adults, conducted on Jul. 24 and Jul. 25, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Greek Cypriots Open to Relations with North

August 05, 2008

Relations between the Greek majority and the Turkish minority in Cyprus have been frayed since 1974, when a Greek-sponsored attempt to seize the government was met by military intervention from Turkey. In the skirmish, the Turks gained control of almost two-fifths of the island, which in 1983 declared itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The Turkish government has never acknowledged the Greek Cypriot administration. More than 30,000 Turkish soldiers occupy the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

249 In February, Dimitris Christofias—a member of the Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL)—won a presidential run-off vote with 53.37 per cent of the vote. Christofias had served as president of the House of Representatives and secretary general of the left-wing AKEL.

One of Christofias’ main campaign promises was to resume peace talks with Turkish Cyprus. In March, Christofias and Turkish Cypriot president Mehmet Ali Talat agreed to restart reunification talks.

On Jul. 29, former Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer—now acting as a United Nations (UN) envoy—referred to the fresh efforts to reunite the island, saying, "Developments over the past months have fostered a genuine sense that prospects have perhaps never been better to achieve a comprehensive settlement favourable to all Cypriots. One of the things that has impressed me is the way there is convergence on quite a number of issues."

Polling Data

Do you think it is good or bad to have contacts with Turkish Cypriots even before a solution to the island’s division is found?

Good 75%

Bad 13%

Not sure 12%

Source: Noverna / Politis Methodology: Interviews to 500 Greek Cyprus adults, conducted from Jul. 16 to Jul. 23, 2008. Margin of error is 4.4 per cent.

East Europe

Russians Urge for Multi-Party Politics

August 07, 2008

Conversely, 32 per cent of respondents prefer to have one strong ruling party, eight per cent suggest having many relatively small parties, and six per cent believe no political parties are necessary in the Russian Federation.

250 Russian voters renewed the State Duma in December 2007. United Russia (YR)—whose candidate list was headed by then president Vladimir Putin—secured 64.1 per cent of the vote and 315 of the legislature’s 450 seats. The Communist Party (KPRF) finished second with 11.6 per cent of the vote and 57 seats, followed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) with 40 seats, and the opposition movement A Just Russia with 38 seats.

Putin eventually endorsed Dmitry Medvedev as a presidential candidate, and Medvedev said it would be of the "utmost importance" to have Putin as prime minister.

Last month, Aleksandr Kynev—head of regional programmes at the Foundation for the Development of Information Policy—argued that having a strong multi-party system would be beneficial in the long run for Russia’s democracy, declaring, "If some political party other than United Russia is actually strengthened, it will be a step towards a more balanced system: Then the president will look more independent."

Polling Data

In your opinion, how many political parties are necessary now in Russia?

2008 2007

One strong ruling party 32% 28%

Two or three large parties 45% 40%

Many relatively small parties 8% 9%

No parties are necessary in Russia 6% 7%

Hard to answer 9% 16%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Jul. 18 to Jul. 22, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

North America

August 5, 2008

Exploring the Iraq Timetable Issue

Public split if assured that withdrawal is a given

251 The results of a July 25-27 USA Today/Gallup poll suggest that Americans split down the middle on the complex issue of whether the United States should set an explicit timetable or target date for the removal of U.S. troops from Iraq -- when it is made clear that withdrawal is a given in either circumstance.

The question wording from this poll was developed to reflect as well as possible the positions of the two major-party presidential candidates on Iraq.

Both candidates have indicated in their policy positions that they favor the ultimate withdrawal of troops from Iraq, but they differ in terms of specifying a timetable for that withdrawal.

Barack Obama's official Web site says: "Obama will give his Secretary of Defense and military commanders a new mission in Iraq: ending the war. The removal of our troops will be responsible and phased, directed by military commanders on the ground and done in consultation with the Iraqi government. Military experts believe we can safely redeploy combat brigades from Iraq at a pace of one to two brigades a month that would remove them in 16 months."

John McCain's Web site says: "I do not want to keep our troops in Iraq a minute longer than necessary to secure our interests there. Our goal is an Iraq that can stand on its own as a democratic ally and a responsible force for peace in its neighborhood. Our goal is an Iraq that no longer needs American troops. And I believe we can achieve that goal, perhaps sooner than many imagine. But I do not believe that anyone should make promises as a candidate for president that they cannot keep if elected. To promise a withdrawal of our forces from Iraq, regardless of the calamitous consequences to the Iraqi

252 people, our most vital interests, and the future of the Middle East, is the height of irresponsibility. It is a failure of leadership."

The differences in the two candidates' positions focus on the explicitness with which a timetable for withdrawal should be announced and planned for ahead of time. Obama's statement specifies a timetable and target date, while McCain's specifically cautions against setting a date or timetable.

Thus, the question wording used in the USA Today/Gallup poll outlined two positions on the issue (without any reference to specific candidates or others who might support that position) and explicitly told respondents that both positions were based on an assumption of a withdrawal of troops. The difference in the two positions as read to respondents was the issue of whether there was a "timetable or target date when most U.S. troops would be out."

The results, as noted, show an almost even split, with 50% choosing the "no timetable" alternative and 47% choosing the "timetable" alternative.

Even though no candidate names are mentioned in the question wording, there are predictable and very large differences in response by partisanship.

The slight overall 3-point edge in support for withdrawal without a timetable is a result of the slightly stronger Republican feelings on this question (compared to those of Democrats), and the tendency of independents to tilt in the "no timetable" direction -- despite the fact that at this point, self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans in the American populace.

253 Other Ways of Asking

A review of questions other polling organizations have asked about an Iraq timetable shows that the results obtained depend to a certain degree on the way in which the question is worded.

For example, a July 10-13 ABC News/Washington Post poll preceded the actual question about the timetable with specific references to the fact that Obama had proposed a timetable and that McCain had not.

The results of this poll show an even split, echoing the rough parity in support for the two candidates in the general population.

On the other hand, CNN/Opinion Research recently asked a straightforward question without reference to either the candidates or specifying that withdrawal would be a given regardless of the timetable issue. The results show a strong public preference for a timetable.

254

Gallup has asked a similar question in the past, with wording as follows.

This Gallup version, at least when it was last asked some 5 1/2 months ago in February, showed a majority supporting a timetable.

255 Finally, there is the NBC News/Wall Street Journal question concerning an Iraq timetable.

This question wording provides the respondent with the explicit information about the Iraqi president's statement, the effect of which on respondents cannot be determined precisely, although it can be hypothesized that this wording may have increased the probability of respondents agreeing with the timetable idea given the reminder of official Iraqi backing.

Implications

The review of these questions concerning a timetable for Iraq suggests that American attitudes on the topic depend to a degree on the way in which the alternatives are presented to them. As has been witnessed in the arguments on a timetable going back and forth between the Obama and McCain campaigns, it is not a simple issue. While all concerned may assume that most American troops will eventually leave Iraq, just when and under what circumstances that will occur is a murky issue.

The public opinion data show that:

Given a basic choice between a timetable and no timetable, the majority of Americans favor the timetable. This may reflect the concern or assumption that the "no timetable" option implies that troops will remain indefinitely.

Citing the fact that the Iraqi president wants U.S. troops to withdraw, with a timetable, results in majority support for the idea.

256 Reminding respondents that Obama has taken a "timetable" position and McCain has taken a "no timetable" position yields a split in results similar to the split in candidate support.

Stipulating withdrawal as a given, with the only difference being a timetable versus no timetable for that withdrawal -- a phrasing that mirrors the presidential candidates' positions -- shows a split right down the middle in attitudes.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,007 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 25-27, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 7, 2008

Nuclear Power Less Popular Than Other Energy Strategies

Conservation-oriented proposals draw widest support

John McCain has ramped up his longstanding call for building more nuclear power plants -- 45 new ones by 2030 -- drawing the sharpest distinction between himself and Barack Obama on energy policy, but also, to some degree, throwing the political dice.

According to a July USA Today/Gallup poll, the impact of a candidate's favoring greater use of nuclear power is mixed. Forty-seven percent of Americans say they are more likely to back a candidate who favors expanding nuclear power, while 41% say they are less likely to back such a candidate. But on a relative basis, the nuclear option is near the bottom of a list of possible solutions to the energy situation.

257

Despite the fact that a plurality of Americans favor a pro-nuclear-energy candidate, more say they would shun a candidate who wants to build nuclear power plants than say this about any of nine other energy reform positions.

Americans seem more prepared to reward candidates who focus on encouraging energy conservation by consumers, raising fuel efficiency standards for vehicles, raising government spending on alternative fuels, establishing price controls on gasoline, imposing a windfall profits tax on oil companies, and easing restrictions on offshore drilling. At least 57% of Americans say they would be more likely to vote for candidates taking each of these positions.

258

Two positions that generate a positive reaction from about half of Americans, but that could turn off as much as a third, are: releasing 10% of the nation's U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (something Obama has called for)

McCain's proposal for establishing a $300 million government reward for inventing a fully electric car with a long-lasting battery

The only issue besides nuclear power to draw opposition from about 4 in 10 Americans is suspending the federal gasoline tax for several months -- the so-called gas-tax holiday that McCain has proposed and Obama has opposed. Thirty-nine percent of Americans say they would be less likely to support a candidate who wants to suspend the gas tax -- perhaps because it isn't a long-term solution.

Pointing the Finger at Consumers

A separate question in the new poll tested the possible political backlash for Obama's comments that could be perceived as blaming American consumers for the nation's energy woes by emphasizing the need to change their usage habits. The results suggest there is, in fact, little backlash.

259 Only 17% of Americans say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who said the energy situation would not be solved until Americans "changed their habits to use less energy" -- fewer than say they are more likely to vote for such a candidate (28%). Most Americans -- 54% -- are indifferent to the remark, saying it would make no difference to their vote.

Republicans and Democrats have largely similar reactions to most of the policy issues tested. But the two standing at the center of McCain's energy plan -- offshore drilling and expanded nuclear power -- generate larger partisan differences.

Republicans are heavily skewed toward saying they are more likely to vote for a candidate who wants to ease restrictions on offshore domestic drilling while Democrats are about evenly divided in their reactions. Importantly, political independents fall squarely on the pro-drilling side of the question, perhaps explaining why Obama recently indicated some new willingness to incorporate this into his energy plan.

260

Compared with their support for offshore drilling, all three political groups are less likely to say they would respond positively to a candidate who supports building more nuclear power plants, but this still wins the support of a majority of Republicans (58%). Independents are slightly more in favor of pro-nuclear candidates than opposed (48% vs. 40%), while the slight majority of Democrats (51%) are opposed.

Bottom Line

Four-dollar-a-gallon gas prices have put the nation's energy woes at the center of the 2008 presidential campaign, renewing discussion of options like oil drilling and nuclear power production that have long been pushed aside in Washington.

261 Whichever candidate is seen as the more serious in addressing the problem could ultimately benefit. That may be just what McCain is banking on. However, when it comes to specifics, Obama's approach of focusing on energy conservation and the development of fossil-fuel alternatives seems highly safe. Large majorities of Americans have a positive reaction to the various proposals that fall within this realm.

Oil drilling is also a winning issue, and one that could work in McCain's favor. However, his close association with a bold proposal to expand nuclear power usage could be somewhat more risky. While close to half of Americans say they would be more likely to support a candidate who proposes this, 4 in 10 political independents -- a group McCain can't afford to scare off -- downgrade their chances of voting for such a candidate.

Survey Methods

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Americans Remain Divided on Attacking Iran

August 05, 2008

After being branded as part of an "axis of evil" by U.S. president George W. Bush in January 2002, Iran has contended that its nuclear program aims to produce energy, not weapons. In June 2005, former Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won Iran’s presidential election in a run-off over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani with 61.6 per cent of all cast ballots.

In December 2006 and March 2007, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) imposed sanctions against Iran after it failed to stop uranium enrichment—a process needed both to make nuclear weapons and produce electricity.

In October, Bush announced a new set of unilateral sanctions against Iran, which include the designations of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "proliferator of weapons of

262 mass destruction" and of the elite Quds Force as a "supporter of terrorism." The resolution has significant economic implications for Iran.

On Jul. 25, the U.S. Congress’ House Judiciary Committee held hearings to determine whether Bush could be impeached for allegedly overstepping his constitutional authority and abusing power.

Democratic Georgia congressman Hank Johnson expressed support for the removal of the president, saying, "I fear that in the event that the current administration continues with its secret actions, with motives and purposes that are not known or not revealed, if this administration during the last six months decides to attack the sovereign nation of Iran, then Americans will look back and think and rethink whether or not it would have been worth pursuing impeachment at this time to deter any further misdoing by this administration."

Polling Data

If Iran continues with its nuclear research and is close to developing a nuclear weapon, do you believe that the United States should or should not initiate military action to destroy Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons?

Jul. 2008 Mar. 2007 Jul. 2006

Should 41% 43% 48%

Should Not 46% 47% 40%

Unsure 13% 10% 12%

Source: Hart/McInturff / The Wall Street Journal / NBC News Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted from Jul. 18 to Jul. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

South America

August 6, 2008

More Peruvians Favor Socialism Than Capitalism

Populist rhetoric likely resonates with dissatisfied populace

A simple contradiction helps illuminate growing political tensions in Peru: About half of Peruvians (49%), according to a 2007 Gallup Poll in the South American nation, say they personally are more socialist than capitalist in their attitudes, while just 16% say they are

263 more capitalist than socialist. However, 45% of Peruvians view their country as more capitalist than socialist, while just 24% say it is more socialist than capitalist.

Despite Peru's strong overall economic growth in recent years, President Alan Garcia remains singularly unpopular; a recent poll by Ipsos-Apoyo put his approval rating in Peru's main cities at just 26%. According to a 2007 Gallup Poll, just 21% of Peruvians say they approve of their country's leadership.

Garcia's political weakness has made him vulnerable to attacks from populist leaders in the country's southern Andean region, an area that has failed to see much of the economic progress enjoyed further north. Hernan Fuentes, head of the Puno region in the south, regularly criticizes Garcia's economic liberalism, favoring the "socialist nationalism" model exemplified by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Populist former army officer Ollanta Humala, who narrowly lost the 2006 presidential election to Garcia, also has a political stronghold in the south.

Garcia's rivals point to the fact that poverty is still a huge problem in southern Peru, afflicting as much as 70% of the population. Many Peruvians share their disapproval; almost two-thirds (64%) say they are dissatisfied with efforts to deal with the poor. These problems are nowhere more challenging than in Peru's rural south, where many residents

264 live as subsistence farmers, lacking the infrastructure that would connect them to the country's market economy.

Southern Peru is the only region where a majority of residents -- 57% -- say they consider themselves more socialist than capitalist. Just 11% of southern Peruvians say they are more capitalist than socialist.

Regional support for Garcia's government also reflect these differences. In 2007, just 13% of those living in the southern Andean region said they approved of the country's leadership, vs. 25% of those in Peru's economically dynamic capital Lima.

Bottom Line

Until recently, it has been politically safe for Peruvian leaders to ignore the indigenous southern population because it consists of poor and remote residents largely disconnected from the rest of the country. However, the growing visibility of protesters and striking workers in the South suggests that may be changing. Peruvians aren't necessarily attracted to extreme forms of socialism; their low approval of national leaders in Venezuela (21%), Bolivia (28%), and Ecuador (31%) suggests otherwise. Nonetheless, more moderate socialist stances may resonate with many, especially in the South where regional populists such as Fuentes and Humala have deep wells of dissatisfaction from which to draw support.

265 Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,000 adults living in Peru, aged 15 and older, conducted from June 29 to July 14, 2007. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Mexicans Assess Mandatory Military Service

August 09, 2008

Conversely, 30.6 per cent of respondents believe women should also take part in the program, while 26.8 per cent would scrap the military service altogether.

Under the current guidelines, all Mexican males who reach 18 years of age must register for one year of military service. A lottery system is used to decide whether a male will be listed as a "reservist" or actually serve on Saturdays at a battalion.

Mexican voters chose their new president in July 2006. Official results placed Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) as the winner with 36.68 per cent of all cast ballots. Calderón—a former energy secretary—took over as Mexico’s head of state in December.

In November 2007, the opposition Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) proposed including women in the mandatory military service, and reducing the age of registration from 18 to 16 years. PRD lawmaker José Alfonso Suárez del Real presented the proposal—ultimately rejected in the legislature—which read: "Women will be able to access military service from the age of 16. With previous authorization from their parents or representatives, they will be able to enlist and will have the same rights and obligations than the males."

Polling Data

In Mexico, a year of military service is mandatory for men. Which of these views do you agree with the most?

It is right that military service is exclusive for men 41.2%

Military service should be for women, as well as men 30.6%

266 Military service should not be mandatory for either gender 26.8%

Not sure 2.4%

Source: Consulta Mitofsky Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,000 Mexican adults, conducted from Jul. 25 to Jul. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Ecuadorians More Pessimistic About Future

August 05, 2008

Rafael Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner— secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents. In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress.

On Jul. 18, a full constitutional draft was approved by the pro-government majority in the Constituent Assembly. The text includes a clause allowing for one consecutive presidential re-election. Two articles that would have legalized same-sex unions and given the indigenous Quechua tongue the status of official language were pulled out at the last minute. The proposed Constitution must be ratified in a nationwide referendum on Sept. 28.

On Jul. 30, the Ecuadorian government issued a statement, calling on the United States to dismantle its military base in the country once its 10-year lease expires in 2009. During the presidential campaign, Correa had vowed not to renew the base’s permit, arguing that he wanted to "diminish" American influence in Ecuador. The statement said that anti- drug surveillance flights will conclude in August 2009, with the "withdrawal of foreign personnel from the Ecuadorian Air Force base in Manta" following in November.

267 Polling Data

Is the country on the right track or the wrong track?

Jul. 2008 Jan. 2008 Nov. 2007

Right track 39% 44% 56%

Wrong track 55% 47% 32%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,433 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Jul. 11 to Jul. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.

Australasia

Australians OK Unilateral Climate Change Action

August 07, 2008

Rudd signed the Kyoto Protocol immediately after being sworn in, delivering on one of his electoral promises. In March 2008, the Kyoto Protocol came into effect.

Last month, the Rudd government introduced its Green Paper, which outlines an emissions trading scheme that could begin operations in 2010.

Rudd assured that he will try to talk Chinese leaders into taking action against climate change when he attends the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games in Beijing. The prime minister declared: "The economic cost of inaction on climate change now is far greater than the economic cost of action. (...) We are already the world’s hottest and

268 driest continent. We run the risk of being hit hardest and earliest by climate change unless we can turn this around."

Polling Data

Thinking now about climate change, do you personally believe or not believe that climate change is currently occurring?

Yes / Believe 84%

No / Not believe 12%

Uncommitted 4%

Thinking now about the federal government’s commitment to introduce a carbon emissions trading scheme, which of the following comes closest to your view?

Australia should introduce a carbon emissions trading scheme only of other 23% countries also introduce such schemes

Australia should introduce a carbon emissions trading scheme regardless of what 60% other countries do

Australia should not introduce a carbon emissions trading scheme at all 11%

Uncommitted 6%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,200 Australian adults, conducted from Jul. 25 to Jul. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Africa

August 5, 2008

Zimbabweans’ Bleak Views of Economy Reflect Reality

Virtually all residents say economic conditions are getting worse

Gallup Poll findings underscore the dire economic conditions in Zimbabwe as residents' assessments of their personal well-being declined from a mean score of 3.8 to 3.2 between 2006 and 2008, which represents a meaningful change.

269

In light of the hardships Zimbabweans experience every day, it is difficult to believe that they would predict their well-being to improve in the future. However, when Gallup asked Zimbabweans in March 2008 where they would stand five years from now, they reported a mean score of 4.6, up from 3.8 in 2007 and 4.0 in 2006. Such self-assessments of a better life may be attributable to the fact that Gallup conducted the poll in the weeks leading to the national elections, suggesting, perhaps, some cautious hope for change.

270

As economic conditions have greatly deteriorated in the past few years and with severe food, gas, and cash shortages defining Zimbabweans' daily experiences, it comes as no surprise that their dissatisfaction with their standard of living has increased dramatically since 2006. In 2006, 77% expressed dissatisfaction with all the things they could buy and do, compared with 88% who said the same about a year later. In 2008, more than 9 in 10 Zimbabweans (91%) said they were dissatisfied with their standard of living.

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In mid-July, a loaf of bread cost about 100 billion Zimbabwean dollars, up from about 750,000 Zimbabwean dollars just six months ago. Recently the central bank of Zimbabwe said the inflation rate had topped 2 million percent, but experts point out it is probably closer to 12 million percent. In the past year, prices of basic goods on the black market have increased by as much as 70 million percent.

In addition, almost 7 in 10 adults (68%), aged 15 and older, currently tell Gallup they do not have a job, either paid or unpaid. Against such an economic backdrop, it is not surprising to observe that today 86% of Zimbabweans say their standard of living is getting worse, up from 75% two years earlier.

272

Zimbabweans' assessment of their country has declined for three consecutive years, from a mean of 3.1 in 2006 to 2.4 in 2007 to 2.1 this year. They also rate their country's situation below that of their own (mean score of 3.2). This finding suggests that Zimbabweans' perceptions regarding their own ability to cope are slightly more positive than their perceptions of how the country, as a whole, is handling the crisis. But when asked about the future, they express similar levels of hope for their country as they do for themselves (mean scores of 4.5 and 4.6, respectively), which may suggest some tempered optimism for the direction of the country during the weeks leading to the national elections.

273

Zimbabweans are virtually unanimous in their negative assessments of their country's economy. Ninety-nine percent of those surveyed believe current economic conditions are not good and 97% think they are getting worse. In fact, a majority of Zimbabweans were already telling Gallup last year that their country needed a change in leadership to solve the economic crisis. And while the central bank recently dropped 10 zeros off the currency, turning 10 billion Zimbabwean dollars into one, the move is unlikely to stave off the country's deep economic crisis.

274

The poll findings clearly show the economic crisis is affecting an overwhelming majority of residents. The decline in Zimbabweans' perceptions of their personal situations and their bleak assessments of the current state of their country are grounded in the harsh realities of their daily experiences. In late June, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission declared Robert Mugabe, the incumbent from the ZANU-PF party who has been ruling

275 the country for almost 30 years, the winner. Despite the dire conditions, Zimbabweans still express a glimmer of hope that the current situation will improve in the future.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, in Zimbabwe in March 2008. The 2007 results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, in Zimbabwe in June-July 2007. The 2006 results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, in Zimbabwe in April 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Global Polls

China falling in the same pit as U.S.

An Enthusiastic China Welcomes the Olympics

August 5, 2008

While publics around the world are showing signs of apprehension about China's growing economic power, its role in foreign affairs and the safety of the products it exports, the Chinese are confident that the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing will change the way their country is viewed. By nearly unanimous margins, Chinese respondents say their country will be a successful host and that the Olympic Games will help China's image around the world.

276 Olympic contenders flocking to Beijing from all corners of world will be greeted by a people who currently express extraordinary levels of satisfaction with the way things are going in their country and with their nation's economy. With more than eight-in-ten having a positive view of both, China ranks number one among 24 countries on both measures in the 2008 survey by the Pew Research Center's Pew Global Attitudes Project. Although levels of personal satisfaction are lower, and by global standards Chinese contentment with family, income and jobs is not especially high, these findings represent a dramatic improvement in national contentment from earlier in the decade when the Chinese people were not nearly as positive about the course of their nation and its economy.

In addition to seeing the Beijing Olympics as good for their country, an overwhelming majority of Chinese across all demographic groups say the event is important to them personally. Those who live in the host city are especially likely to say that is the case.

There is also broad optimism about the performance of China's athletes among the Chinese public. Yet, despite the widespread excitement about the Olympics, some in China say their country is paying too much attention to the games, and the percentage who expresses that opinion has increased since Pew Research last asked the question in 2006.

The Olympics and China's Image

The Chinese are enthusiastic about hosting the Summer Olympics. More than nine-in-ten say their country will be successful as a host (96%), including 56% who say it will be very successful. A similar share is convinced that the games, which will take place in August in Beijing, will help China's image around the world (93%), unchanged from two years ago.

277 The view that China will be a successful Olympics host and that the country's image will improve as a result is shared by men and women, the young and the old, and the rich and the poor alike. Moreover, those who do not live in Beijing are just as likely as those who live in the host city to say that China will be a successful host (96% vs. 98%).

Most See Olympics as Important

Positive feelings about the Summer Olympics extend beyond the belief that the event will be good for China. Nearly eight-in-ten Chinese (79%) say the Olympics will be important to them personally, while just 17% say it will not be important to them.

Solid majorities across all demographic groups say the Olympics impact them personally, but those in the host city are considerably more likely than those in other cities and provinces to express that view. Fully nine-in-ten in Beijing say the Olympics are important to them, compared with 79% in other parts of the country.

Opinions about whether the Olympics are important on a personal level also vary somewhat by age, income, and education. Fully 78% of Chinese respondents who are ages 50 or older say the Olympics are important to them, but an even higher percentage of those who are under 30 say that is the case (83%). Among those with low household incomes, three-quarters see the Olympics as important to them personally and 21% say it is not important. By contrast, 87% of Chinese respondents with high incomes say the event is important to them and just 12% say it is not.

278 Optimism about Chinese Athletes

The Chinese have confidence that their country's athletes will perform well at the games. Three-quarters say China, which finished third in the medal count, behind the United States and Russia, at the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, will win the most medals this summer. Only 15% think the U.S. will take home the most medals.

Women are somewhat more likely than men to say China will perform better than any other country. About eight-in-ten women (78%) say their country will win the most medals, compared with 72% of men. Those with less than a high school education, and those in the middle and lower income groups, are also more optimistic about China's chances.

Beijing residents are the least confident that Chinese athletes will outperform their opponents. Fewer than six-in-ten (58%) say China will win the most medals and more than four-in-ten (42%) think the United States will. Outside of the host city, 76% name China and 14% name the U.S. as the country that will take home the most prizes.

Chinese Attention to the Olympics

279

Overall, more Chinese respondents say people in China are paying the right amount of attention to the Olympics than say they are paying too much or too little attention. But the percentage saying they are paying too much attention has increased since 2006. More than one-in-three Chinese (34%) now say that people in China are paying too much attention to the Olympics; just one-in-four shared that view two years ago. About one-in- five (18%) say the Chinese are not paying enough attention to the games.

The opinion that there is too much focus on the Olympics is more prevalent in the host city than in other parts of the country. Beijing residents are nearly evenly split -- 46% say people are paying too much attention to the Olympics and 51% say they are paying the right amount of attention. Only 2% in Beijing say that not enough attention is being paid. Outside of Beijing, however, 33% say people are paying too much attention, 19% say they are paying too little attention, and 43% say they are paying the right amount of attention to the games.

International Views on the Olympics

The survey finds that international opinion largely approves of holding the upcoming 2008 Summer Olympics in China. Majorities in 14 of 23 countries say the decision to hold the games there was a good one.

280 However, European publics are notably less enthusiastic. In France, home to large demonstrations when the Olympic torch passed through the country, a clear 55%- majority calls the decision to hold the games in China a mistake. On balance, the British and Spanish approve of holding the event in China, while Germans, Americans and Poles are more divided on this question. And, unlike in other Asian nations, opposition to the Beijing Games runs high in Japan -- 55% of Japanese disapprove of the decision to hold the Olympics there, while just 39% approve.

The following sections describe other findings from the 2008 Pew Global Attitudes survey on how nations around the world view China, its policies and its people.

How Other Countries View China

As the international spotlight turns to China and the 2008 Beijing Olympics, international publics are showing signs of apprehension about the country and its growing power. Overall, favorable views of China have declined slightly over the last year, and this is especially true in Asia, as well as in Western nations, where enthusiasm for the Beijing Games is muted and concern about China's increasing military strength is on the rise.

For most publics included in the survey, a familiar complaint about American foreign policy -- that it tends to be unilateralist -- rings true for China as well. The perception that China fails to consider the interests of others when making foreign policy decisions is widespread, particularly in the U.S., Europe, the Middle East and among China's neighbors South Korea, Japan and Australia. On this and other measures, Japanese attitudes toward China are among the most negative.

In addition to anxieties about China's role in foreign affairs, there is significant concern about China's growing economy in some countries, especially the U.S. and Western Europe. Even more widespread, however, are worries about the safety of Chinese products. The recent scandals involving recalls of Chinese exports are well known to many, and in most of the nations surveyed, relatively few believe products made in China are as safe as those made elsewhere.

In many ways, the survey reflects China's ascendance as a major power. In both the developing and developed world, people see China having a significant influence in their own countries. In Western Europe, majorities believe either that China has already replaced the U.S. as the world's leading superpower or that it will at some point replace the U.S. Few Chinese think their country has already supplanted the U.S., but most think it will eventually do so.

281 China's Image Declines Slightly

Majorities in seven of the survey's 23 nations give China a favorable rating. This is the same number of countries in which majorities rate the United States positively. China's popularity has declined somewhat since last year in nine of 21 countries where trends are available, while increasing in only two countries and remaining basically stable in 10.

American public opinion regarding China is roughly divided between those with a favorable (39%) and those with an unfavorable (42%) view. U.S. attitudes toward China have changed little since 2007, when 42% had a positive and 39% a negative opinion.

Ratings for China are decidedly negative in three of the four Western European countries included in the survey. Fewer than one-in-three respondents in Germany, France or Spain express a positive opinion. Moreover, attitudes toward China have grown more negative in all three countries since last year. This is especially true in France, where China's

282 favorability rating has plummeted from 47% to 28%. This year's decline continues a slide among Western Europeans over the last few years -- since 2005, China's favorability score has dropped 30 percentage points in France, 26 points in Spain, and 20 points in Germany. And while a plurality in Great Britain continues to express a positive view, opinions of China there are down significantly from 2005, when 65% offered a positive rating.

In Asia, opinions about China vary considerably. China is overwhelmingly popular among Pakistanis -- roughly three-in-four (76%) express a positive opinion, while just 8% hold a negative view. A clear majority of Indonesians (58%) also have a positive view, although China's favorability rating has dropped seven percentage points among Indonesians over the last year. On balance, Australians take a positive view of China, while both South Koreans and Indians are divided on this question. On the other hand, the Japanese are more negative than any other public included on the survey -- just 14% offer a positive assessment of China, down 15 points from an already low 29% in last year's survey. Of course, China and Japan have a long and often difficult history with one another, but as recently as 2002 a majority of Japanese (55%) voiced a positive view of their longtime rival.

Middle Eastern views of China are mixed. In both Egypt and Lebanon, positive views outweigh negative ones, but in Jordan negative ratings are slightly more common. Similarly, opinions are mixed in Latin America, and many in the region are unable to offer either a positive or negative assessment.

283

More than 70% of both Nigerians and Tanzanians take a positive view of China, but public opinion is quite different in South Africa, where China's favorability rating is just 37%.

Rating the Chinese People

Majorities in only nine of the 23 countries surveyed express a favorable view of the Chinese people. Some of the highest ratings come from neighboring countries, including Pakistan (78% favorable), Australia (73%) and Indonesia (59%). Elsewhere in Asia, views are mixed, in South Korea and India, and decidedly negative in Japan, where 73% have an unfavorable opinion, by far the most negative assessment of the Chinese people in the survey.

In most countries, views of the Chinese closely resemble views of China as a nation. For instance, this is true in the three African nations included in the survey: Tanzanians and

284 Nigerians have overwhelmingly positive views of the Chinese people, while South Africans lean toward a negative assessment, the same pattern that characterizes opinions of China itself in these countries.

In the U.S. and Western Europe, however, there is a gap between perceptions of China and perceptions of its people. This is similar to the gap that characterizes attitudes toward the U.S. and its people throughout much of the world.

In Britain, only 47% hold a positive view of China, but 65% have a favorable view of the Chinese people. An even larger gap exists in the U.S., where just 39% express a favorable opinion of China, but 64% express a positive opinion of the Chinese. Smaller, but still substantial, gaps exist in Spain, France and Germany.

Most See China as Neither Partner Nor Enemy

In most of the countries surveyed, majorities or pluralities think of China as neither a partner nor an enemy of their country. In six nations, the balance of opinion is that China is a partner, while no public included in the study characterizes China as an enemy. This stands in stark contrast to the results from this same question when it was asked about the United States --people are much more likely to label the U.S. as either a partner or an enemy.

The way in which people characterize their nation's relationship with China varies extensively across regions. Pakistanis are especially likely to say China is a partner to their country, as are Nigerians and Tanzanians. A slim majority of South Africans also call China a partner. In neighboring Russia, about half of those surveyed (49%) say China is a partner.

Fewer than one-quarter of those in the survey's five European Union countries -- Britain, France, Germany, Poland and Spain -- consider China a partner. However, Americans are the least likely to say China is a partner of their country, and fully 20% characterize it as an enemy. China is rated as an enemy by significant minorities in other countries as well, including South Korea (28%), Turkey (25%), Egypt (24%), Japan (23%) and Mexico (22%).

285 Many See China as Unilateralist

Among the publics included in this survey, there is a widely held view that China acts unilaterally in international affairs. Majorities in 14 of 23 countries say that China does not take into account the interests of countries like theirs when making foreign policy decisions.

This view is prevalent in the U.S. and among EU nations -- more than seven-in-ten in France, Spain and Britain, and somewhat smaller majorities in Poland, the U.S. and Germany, think China generally ignores their interests. Majorities in the Middle East also agree with this perspective.

Opinions differ among the six Asian and Pacific countries -- Indians, Pakistanis and Indonesians tend to believe China does consider the interests of countries like theirs, while South Koreans, Australians, and Japanese overwhelmingly disagree.

286 Elsewhere, Mexicans and Brazilians are divided on this question, while Argentines tend to think China acts unilaterally. In all three African nations, on the other hand, majorities believe China takes their interests into account.

While most of the publics in the survey believe China generally acts unilaterally, the Chinese tend to have a very different impression of their country's approach to foreign policy. When asked whether China takes into account the interests of other countries when making foreign policy decisions, 83% of Chinese say they believe it does consider other countries a great deal or a fair amount.

Apprehension About Chinese Products

In 2007, high profile recalls of toys and other Chinese-made products generated considerable media attention in the United States and other countries, and as the results of this poll demonstrate, in many countries there is a high level of awareness about these controversies.

287 With near unanimity (96%), the Japanese say they are aware of the recalls of food and goods manufactured in China over the last year. More than eight-in-ten in both South Korea and the U.S. have also heard a lot or a little about this issue.

Awareness is also widespread in Germany (72% a lot or a little), Australia (66%), and Indonesia (66%). And majorities in Nigeria, Britain, Spain, France, Russia and India are familiar with this issue.

Few, however, in Latin America know about the recalls -- just 27% of Brazilians, 26% of Mexicans and 14% in Argentina have heard something about this. Awareness is also low in Pakistan (17%).

The survey finds considerable skepticism about the quality of Chinese products, and this is true even in many countries where awareness of recalls of Chinese projects is low. In 19 of 24 countries, at least half of those surveyed say Chinese products are generally less safe than those produced elsewhere.

There is a consensus throughout much of the West that Chinese products are not as safe, although here again, Britain is something of an outlier -- just 50% of the British think Chinese projects are inferior to others in terms of safety. Nearly three-in-four Americans equate "Made in China" with safety risks.

The South Koreans and Japanese are the least likely to say China's products are as safe. In both countries roughly nine-in-ten say they are generally less safe than those produced elsewhere.

Opinions are quite different, however, in China itself. Overwhelmingly, the Chinese public has confidence in its products -- 65% say they are as safe as those from other countries, while just 18% say they are less safe.

288 Little Awareness of Recalls Within China

Within China there have been several high-profile recalls of Chinese-made products over the last year. However, relatively few among the Chinese public are aware of these domestic recalls. Only 1% have heard a lot about this issue, while another 15% say they have heard a little. About four-in-ten (41%) say they have not heard much and 27% report hearing nothing at all.

In contrast, in many other nations, large majorities are familiar with recent recalls of Chinese products in their countries. Indeed, 96% of Japanese, 88% of South Koreans, 81% of Americans, and 72% of Germans have heard about this issue.

World Still Wary of Modern China

According to survey results, China is not generally blamed for global problems (rises in food prices, energy prices and climate change)—except in South Korea, where two-thirds agree that China is responsible for rising prices of food and energy, and three-quarters agree that China is to blame for climate change.

Where blame is attached to China, in four out of five countries surveyed (Great Britain, South Korea, India, and Brazil), the public is more likely to feel that it is to blame for climate change than for rising food and energy prices. Only in the USA is the public more likely to blame China for rising energy prices than for climate change.

GlobeScan’s Research Director, Sam Mountford says, “There's not much evidence here of a desire to blame China for the big global problems we're currently faced with like rising energy prices or food prices. And it's surprising that despite all the concern about the growth in China's carbon emissions, it's people in the other big emerging economies like Brazil or India that are more likely to blame China for climate change.”

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One in three Americans feel Chinese growth has harmed their standard of living – but most have still not felt its impact. Among Americans and South Koreans, however, those who do think China’s growth has affected their standard of living are more likely to feel that it has reduced it. Respondents in India are the more positive, with four in ten saying China’s growth has improved their standard of living.

“We've seen support for globalization drop off in recent years around the world and this may be more evidence of people in the West worrying about jobs disappearing into lower-wage economies in the developing world,” states Mr. Mountford.

There was no overall consensus on whether China is a threat or an ally but many Americans and South Koreans are wary. The public in the USA, South Korea and India is inclined to perceive China as more of a threat than an ally, although substantial proportions disagree. In the UK and Brazil, the opposite is the case. About half of Americans and South Koreans think China is more of a threat than an ally while one-third in these two countries feel the opposite: that China is more of an ally than a threat. The opposite is true in the UK; almost half see China as an ally, while one-third perceive China as a threat. It is notable that only two out of ten Indians see China, the other emerging global economic giant, as an ally.

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Younger people (under 35 age group) are somewhat more positive about China—more likely to see it as an ally rather than a threat. This is particularly marked in the UK. Whereas more than half of British people under 35 see China as an ally, and only 29 per cent see it as a threat, over 35s are much more divided, with 43 per cent seeing it as an ally, and 35 per cent as a threat.

291

The Chinese are seen as friendly and modern—but Western countries still view them as oppressed. Large majorities in the United States and Great Britain (around eight in ten in each country) think that the Chinese people are friendly, while two-thirds in both countries believe they are both modern and oppressed. In contrast, in these two countries, slightly more than half feel that Chinese people are ‘like me’ and only three out of ten think they are free.

“Despite their increasing wealth, there's still a strong perception in the West that the Chinese are oppressed, and the protests we've seen about China's human rights record ahead of the Olympics will only have increased that sense. Maybe one of the most surprising things though is that even though China as a country has been isolated from the outside world for such a long time, majorities in Britain, US and India still see the

292 Chinese as 'friendly' and over half in the US and Britain think that the Chinese are like them,” Mr. Mountford notes.

Despite proximity and ethnic similarity, in South Korea only one-quarter agree that the Chinese are friendly and “like me.” Only in Brazil, where just one in ten feel Chinese are like them, is this figure lower.

In India and South Korea, a simjilar proportion of the public (about four out of ten) agree that Chinese are free and oppressed. Indeed, forty six percent of Indians agree that Chinese people are free, the highest percentage recorded in any country. However, it is notable that in the other three countries surveyed the proportion of those who feel Chinese people are oppressed double the proportion of those who think they are free.

293 Business and Politics in The Muslim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report Week August 11-17, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: August 19, 2008 Introduction Summary Middle East Olmert to Depart with Low Numbers in Israel Three-in-Ten Israelis Want Netanyahu as PM North America Gallup Daily: Obama 45%, McCain 44% Americans Want to Re-focus on Afghanistan More Americans Struggling Than Six Months Ago Canadians Separate Religion from Politics South America Uruguayan Left Leads by Seven Points East Europe Georgian, Russian Relations Sour Before Conflict West Europe Britons Pick Tony Blair Over Gordon Brown Swiss Not Ready to Dismantle Army East Asia Indonesians Will Back Women and Young Candidate 74% - Chinese Very Worried About the Environment Africa Many Zimbabweans Lacking Basic Necessities Kenyan Election Was Void of Major Problems

294 Introduction

This week report consists of fourteen surveys. Two of these surveys are of global significance while the rest are of local importance for their respective countries.

Political Issues

Israelis Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is supposed to be one of the most unpopular PM of Israel. He will be leaving office with very low approval rating. On the other hand Israelis are seeing Netanyaho as the next PM. Public opinion in Israel has been in his favor for almost a year now.

Presidential Election in U.S. are attracting more attention of scholars and publics around the world with rapidly changing ratings of candidates every day. Today it has become tied once again between Obama and McCain. Though Obama has lead the competition in most of the last one year but since this August McCain has started improving. It is second time in this month that the ratings of the candidates are tied in Gallup daily tracking.

Americans are showing more interest in Afghanistan mission once again. They are in favor of sending more troops there to fight against Al-Qaeda, even they would like to withdraw troops from Iraq and send them to Afghanistan. A kind of revival of sympathies for mission in Afghanistan can help Bush to leave the office with improved ratings as compared today and even it can help Republican candidate in coming elections.

Gallup data suggests that long before the war started between Russia and Georgia the relation between the two countries were percieved to be deteriorating by the publics in Georgia. On the other side Georgians believed that their country’s relations with Ukraine and United States were improving while they were divided on the question of Armenia.

Gallup data reflect a perceived deterioration of relations between Georgia and Russia dating back to at least 2007. Not surprisingly, Georgia has now reached out to the countries that it has deliberately fostered relations with over that time period for support. It's unclear to what extent the warmer relations between Georgia and non-Russian actors will translate into deeper commitments to Georgia's security beyond the already displayed rhetoric.

Labour seem to be losing grounds in U.K and conservative is maintaing lead in popularity for over six months from now. Interestingly almost half of Britains in a last week survey preffered Tonay Blair over Brown, though the former’s popularity had gone down last year. But it is probably the expression of low level of support for Labour in the couuntry.

Economic Issues

295 The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index finds the nation's average well-being declining significantly over the past six months. The individual-level data provide clear evidence that Americans' worsening perceptions of their personal living standards have motivated these changes in well-being. During the period when the Gallup-Healthways index registered this decline in personal well-being, several economic indicators have shown negative change. The cost of almost everything Americans buy has increased. Most notably, gas is up from around $3 per gallon in January to sometimes exceeding $4 a gallon and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up from $208 in January to more than $213. The unemployment rate is at a record high, and the credit crisis is far from over. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index findings during this period underscore the toll that the faltering economy has taken on the individual and collective well-being of the American public.

Zimbabweans are hard hit by inflation and shortage of food. Majorities in the country say they had to go several times without basic necessities in the last year. They see poor income and inflation as the major problems causing their miseries. They cite their situation even worse then neighbouring Zambian or Mozambican.

Social Issues

On the social front environmental issue is maintaing its position in the public square continously. The problem is recognized quite widely. We have already seen majorities in a number of countries have shown their concern and they are in favor of taking steps to meet the crisis. Last week Chinese overwhelmingly show their concern on the issue and their willingness to take action in this regard.

Summary

Middle East

Olmert to Depart with Low Numbers in Israel

Few Israeli adults are satisfied with the tenure of Ehud Olmert as head of government, according to a poll by the Dahaf Institute released by Yediot Ahronot. Only 35 per cent of respondents think the prime minister performed well, while 65 per cent think he did badly.

August 13, 2008

Three-in-Ten Israelis Want Netanyahu as PM

Three-in-ten Israelis would like to see former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu return to power, according to a poll by Dialog published in Haaretz. 29 per cent

296 of respondents think the right-leaning Likud leader is the most appropriate candidate to become head of government.

August 11, 2008

North America

Gallup Daily: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

Barack Obama is now favored by 45% of national registered voters and John McCain by 44%, essentially maintaining the tie at 44% reported in Friday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report.

August 16, 2008

Americans Want to Re-focus on Afghanistan

Many adults in the United States believe their country’s military engagement in Afghanistan requires more soldiers, according to a poll by Gallup released by USA Today. 59 per cent of respondents would favour sending additional U.S. troops to fight al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorist operations, and 57 per cent endorse moving U.S. troops from Iraq to Afghanistan.

August 11, 2008

More Americans Struggling Than Six Months Ago

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index finds the number of struggling Americans eclipsing the number of thriving Americans for the fourth consecutive month. Those struggling outnumber those thriving for fourth consecutive month.

August 15, 2008

Canadians Separate Religion from Politics

Many adults in Canada believe politics and religion should not mix, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 66 per cent of respondents think it is inappropriate for political candidates to talk about their religious beliefs as part of their political campaigns.

August 13, 2008

South America

Uruguayan Left Leads by Seven Points

297 The governing alliance of left-leaning parties is gaining public support in Uruguay, according to a poll by Cifra. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the Progressive Encounter - Broad Front (EP-FA) in the next legislative and presidential elections, up two points since May.

August 13, 2008

East Europe

Georgian, Russian Relations Sour Before Conflict

Well before the conflict between Russia and Georgia erupted last week, Gallup Polls in Georgia and Russia in 2007 showed substantial majorities of residents perceived that relations between the two countries were deteriorating.

August 11, 2008

West Europe

Britons Pick Tony Blair Over Gordon Brown

Almost half of people in Britain prefer Tony Blair over their current prime minister, according to a poll by YouGov. 49 per cent of respondents think Blair’s performance as head of government was better than Gordon Brown’s. August 17, 2008

Swiss Not Ready to Dismantle Army

The majority of people in Switzerland would reject a motion to dismantle the Swiss Armed Forces, according to a poll by Isopublic. 52.5 per cent of respondents share this point of view, while 29 per cent would support an initiative to abolish the army.

August 15, 2008

East Asia

Indonesians Will Back Women and Young Candidate

IRI survey of Indonesia shows that public will back women or young candidates of political parties in the legislative elections. They are in favor of a reform initiative. They feel the country is heading in the wrong direction and are not satisfied with the present administration.

August 15, 2008

298 74% - Chinese Very Worried About the Environment

In a recent Pew Research survey of the Chinese people, environmental issues emerge as a top problem and a top priority; about three-in-four (74%) cite air pollution as a big problem and 66% so named water pollution. In response, as many as 80% of Chinese think protecting the environment should be made a priority, even if this results in slower growth and a potential loss of jobs.

August 14, 2008

Africa

Many Zimbabweans Lacking Basic Necessities

Outside of Zimbabwe, the severity of the economic situation is perhaps hard to fathom, but residents' voices capture the human impact of the country's crisis. Majorities tell Gallup in March 2008 that they went without several basic necessities at least once in the past year.

August 13, 2008

Kenyan Election Was Void of Major Problems

IRI poll revealed voters in Kenya believed the election was void of major problems such as voter fraud or maladministration. Additionally, the voters were skeptical that politicians at any level were able to fulfill promises. Candidates who had new ideas regarding the economy and employment were favored by the voters.

August 14, 2008

Middle East

Olmert to Depart with Low Numbers in Israel

August 13, 2008

299 On Jan. 4, 2006, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon was rushed to hospital after suffering a cerebral haemorrhage. Olmert, who was serving as Israel’s deputy prime minister, became the acting head of government.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by Sharon and led by Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

In November 2007, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by United States president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

On Jul. 31, Olmert announced that he will not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership in September, which will effectively end his tenure.

On Aug. 11, Labour leader and Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak discussed the country’s political future, saying, "There could be a prime minister without a security background, but it is neither wise nor correct. (...) Israeli prime minister is a sensitive position that requires a massive amount of experience, including on security issues. We saw just two years ago the fruit of inexperience, and the decisions made then are being judged now."

Polling Data

How did Ehud Olmert perform as a prime minister?

Good 35%

Bad 65%

Source: Dahaf Institute / Yediot Ahronot Methodology: Interviews with 400 Israeli adults, conducted on Aug. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

300 Three-in-Ten Israelis Want Netanyahu as PM

August 11, 2008

Three-in-ten Israelis would like to see former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu return to power, according to a poll by Dialog published in Haaretz. 29 per cent of respondents think the right-leaning Likud leader is the most appropriate candidate to become head of government.

Foreign minister Tzipi Livni of Kadima is second with 22 per cent, followed by Labour leader and defence minister Ehud Barak and transportation minister Shaul Mofaz both with eight per cent. 29 per cent of respondents say none of these four candidates is fit to be prime minister.

On the day Olmert announced he would step down, Netanyahu renewed calls for a snap general ballot, saying, "Everyone in this government is responsible for a string of failures. We must let the people decide through new elections."

Polling Data

Of the following who is most appropriate to be prime minister?

Benjamin Netanyahu 29%

Tzipi Livni 22%

Ehud Barak 8%

301 Shaul Mofaz 8%

None 29%

All same 4%

Source: Dialog / Haaretz Methodology: Interviews with 503 Israeli adults, conducted on Jul. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.

North America

August 16, 2008

Gallup Daily: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

Result extends presidential tie reported on Friday

Barack Obama is now favored by 45% of national registered voters and John McCain by 44%, essentially maintaining the tie at 44% reported in Friday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report.

Obama and McCain have been closely matched in each the past four individual days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, including in the Aug. 13-15 polling represented in today's

302 three-day rolling average. Thus there appears to be a degree of stability to voter preferences in recent days.

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Aug. 13-15, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,690 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Americans Want to Re-focus on Afghanistan

August 11, 2008

303 Afghanistan has been the main battleground in the war on terrorism. The conflict began in October 2001, after the Taliban regime refused to hand over Osama bin Laden, prime suspect in the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Al-Qaeda operatives hijacked and crashed four airplanes on Sept. 11, 2001, killing nearly 3,000 people.

At least 889 soldiers—including 557 Americans—have died in the war on terrorism, either in support of the U.S.-led Operation Enduring Freedom or as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

On Aug. 8, NATO commander David McKiernan discussed current state of affairs in Afghanistan, saying, "There is no magic number of soldiers that are needed on the ground to win this campaign. What we need is security of the people. We need governance. We need reconstruction and development."

Polling Data

Split Sample - Would you favour or oppose sending additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan to fight al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorist operations in that country?

Jul. 2008 Aug. 2007

Favour 59% 56%

Oppose 38% 38%

Unsure 3% 6%

Split Sample - Would you favour or oppose moving U.S. troops from Iraq to Afghanistan in order to fight al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorist operations in Afghanistan?

Jul. 2008 Aug. 2007

Favour 57% 52%

Oppose 36% 37%

Unsure 7% 10%

Source: Gallup / USA Today Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,007 American adults, conducted from Jul. 25 to Jul. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

More Americans Struggling Than Six Months Ago

304 Those struggling outnumber those thriving for fourth consecutive month

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index finds the number of struggling Americans eclipsing the number of thriving Americans for the fourth consecutive month.

Peaking in February at 50.7%, the percentage of thriving Americans declined to 45.3% in July. The change amounts to 14 million Americans, bringing the total number of adults who are now classified as either struggling or suffering to more than 123 million. Based on the responses of almost 200,000 Americans surveyed by Gallup so far this year, a shift of this magnitude is a significant reflection of the changing well-being of the American people.

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index asks at least 1,000 Americans each day to evaluate their current lives as well as their expectations of where they will be in five years using a "ladder" scale with steps number from 0 to 10, where "0" indicates the worst possible life and "10" the best possible life. Based on these personal evaluations, respondents are classified into one of three categories: thriving, struggling, or suffering. (See the following graph for details.)

305

Income and Well-Being

Suffering is highest among Americans with annual household incomes of $6,000 to $12,000, and, perhaps due to their particular financial vulnerability, this group has registered the largest increase in suffering since the year began.

Suffering is relatively low among Americans with household incomes of $36,000 and above, but even though their greater financial security might insulate them from suffering, this group is increasingly struggling. Within this group, increased struggling is particularly pronounced among full-time and part-time workers and residents who are married with children.

The overwhelming majority of Americans, whether thriving, struggling, or suffering, hold negative views about the economy. Not surprisingly, residents who are thriving are more likely to perceive their personal living standards as "getting better." However, the erosion in the thriving population and the trend showing more and more middle- and upper-income Americans struggling may reflect that macro-level U.S. economic problems are increasingly hitting home for a broader cross-section of Americans.

306

The Daily Trend: Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index

Looking at day-to-day results so far this year, The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index finds the daily change in the percentage of thriving residents moving from a high of 55.6% on Feb. 20 to a low of 41.2% on June 5.

What best explains this downward trend in the percentage of thriving Americans? Studying other measures collected in the Gallup-Healthways Well-being Index, including opinions on basic needs, health satisfaction, work satisfaction, personal economics, and the economy in general, views of one's standard of living were most closely associated with changes in the percentage of thriving residents. Specifically, the percentage of Americans who say their standard of living is getting worse has increased from 30.6%

307 average in January to 42.2% average in July, coinciding closely with declines in the percentage of Americans who are thriving.

Bottom Line

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index finds the nation's average well-being declining significantly over the past six months. The individual-level data provide clear evidence that Americans' worsening perceptions of their personal living standards have motivated these changes in well-being. During the period when the Gallup-Healthways index registered this decline in personal well-being, several economic indicators have shown negative change. The cost of almost everything Americans buy has increased. Most notably, gas is up from around $3 per gallon in January to sometimes exceeding $4 a gallon and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up from $208 in January to more than $213. The unemployment rate is at a record high, and the credit crisis is far from over. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index findings during this period underscore the toll that the faltering economy has taken on the individual and collective well-being of the American public.

About the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index tracks the well-being of U.S. residents every day, with the goal of providing the world's most up-to-date measure of individual and collective health and well-being. For this survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than

308 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008. The large scale of the study allows for comparisons of well-being across days, regions, states, ZIP Codes, and climate zones over time -- as well as comparisons with Gallup surveys of well-being in more than 140 countries worldwide. Perhaps most importantly, these measures provide a valuable tool to all policy-makers, business leaders, and healthcare providers engaged in improving the health and well-being of their constituencies.

Canadians Separate Religion from Politics

August 13, 2008

In addition, 82 per cent of respondents believe it is inappropriate for religious leaders to urge people to vote for or against a political candidate.

Last month, Canadian industry minister Jim Prentice announced the appointment of Reform party founder Preston Manning to the Council of Canadian Academies, declaring, "There is no doubt that his diverse knowledge and extensive involvement in strengthening relations with scientific communities will be of great value to the Council."

In his personal website, Manning discusses his views on religion and politics, saying, "The separation of church and state—an important principle to be preserved—does not mean that we can or should keep faith perspectives from influencing political decisions or vice versa. (...) We cannot profess to be a free society and a representative democracy and impose a de facto ban on expression or consideration of spiritual views in the political arena."

Polling Data

Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for political candidates to talk about their religious beliefs as part of their political campaigns?

Appropriate 25%

Inappropriate 66%

Not sure 9%

309 Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for religious leaders to urge people to vote for or against a political candidate?

Appropriate 12%

Inappropriate 82%

Not sure 6%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies Methodology: Online interviews with 1,007 Canadian adults, conducted on Jul. 29 and Jul. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

South America

Uruguayan Left Leads by Seven Points

August 13, 2008

The governing alliance of left-leaning parties is gaining public support in Uruguay, according to a poll by Cifra. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the Progressive Encounter - Broad Front (EP-FA) in the next legislative and presidential elections, up two points since May.

The conservative National Party-Whites (PN-B) is second with 35 per cent, followed by the Red Party (PC) with seven per cent, and the Independent Party (PI) with one per cent.

Tabaré Vázquez—nominee for the EP-FA—won the October 2004 election with 50.45 per cent of the vote, becoming the first Uruguayan president to represent a political organization other than the PC and the PN-B.

The president officially took over in March 2005, and began his government with majorities in the Chamber of Deputies—with 52 lawmakers in the 99-seat lower house— and the Chamber of Senators—with 18 legislators in the 31-seat upper house.

Consecutive presidential re-election is not currently allowed in Uruguay. Former farming and agriculture minister José Mujica—a member of the EP-FA and a former leader of the rebel Tupamaro guerrilla—has been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate.

Last month, Vázquez reiterated that he will not attempt to change the constitution in order to seek a new term, saying, "I will say it for the last time. I will absolutely not run for re-election nor will I head any political list to the Senate."

Polling Data

310 If the presidential and parliamentary elections took place this Sunday, which party would you vote for?

Jul. 2008 May 2008

Progressive Encounter - Broad Front (EP-FA) 42% 40%

National Party-Whites (PN-B) 35% 32%

Red Party (PC) 7% 8%

Independent Party (PI) 1% --

Blank ballot / Undecided 15% 20%

Source: Cifra Methodology: Interviews with 1,003 Uruguayan adults, conducted in July 2008. Margin of error is 3.3 per cent.

East Europe

August 11, 2008

Georgian, Russian Relations Sour Before Conflict

Georgians positive about state of relations with U.S., Ukraine

311

When Gallup asked Georgians in April/May 2007 for their perceptions of relations with Russia, 81% of residents said relations had declined. Sixty-eight percent of Russians, polled in August 2007, said relations had become worse.

In contrast, large majorities of Georgians (75%) said relations with the United States and Ukraine had improved. The recent and broadening conflict in South Ossetia and the international response would appear to reaffirm Georgians' perceptions.

Georgia's pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili has turned to the United States and the international community to discourage Russia from further military escalation. On Aug. 10, Vice President Dick Cheney expressed the Bush administration's solidarity with the Georgian people and their democratically elected government. Bush spoke with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during the Olympic opening ceremonies, condemning any bombings outside South Ossetia.

Ukraine has also demonstrated solidarity with Georgia. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has warned Russia it could bar Russian navy ships, which were recently deployed to the Georgian coast, from returning to their bases in Crimea.

Figures from 2007 also show Georgians' disapproval of Russian leadership. The responses are particularly marked when compared with Georgians' approval ratings of the United States and regional neighbors.

312

Future Relations

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 602 Georgians, aged 15 and older, conducted April-May 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling, weighting, and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,479 adults, aged 15 and older, in August 2007 in Russia. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling, weighting, and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

West Europe

Britons Pick Tony Blair Over Gordon Brown

313 August 17, 2008

In addition, 46 per cent of respondents think Brown should quit in light of the current political and economic climate, while 36 per cent believe he should retain his post.

In June 2007, Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Earlier this month, the Mail on Sunday published a document allegedly written by Blair last year in which the former prime minister criticizes Brown’s leadership, saying, "We dissed our own record. Instead of saying we are building on the achievements, confronting new challenges, we joined in the attack on our own record—a fatal mistake if we do not correct it. (...) I am passing this message to GB [Gordon Brown]—not in these terms—and will try to help; but at present, there is every indication that the lessons will not be learnt."

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

In general, thinking of their performance as prime minister, would you say that you prefer Tony Blair or Gordon Brown?

I prefer Tony Blair 49%

I prefer Gordon Brown 13%

No preference / Don’t know 38%

In light of the current political and economic climate, do you think Gordon Brown should stand down as prime minister?

Yes he should stand down as PM 46%

No he should not stand down as PM 36%

Don’t know 18%

314 Source: YouGov Methodology: Online interviews with 2,031 British adults, conducted from Aug. 6 to Aug. 8, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Swiss Not Ready to Dismantle Army

August 15, 2008

Last month, Swiss army chief Roland Nef was suspended from his duties as he faced accusations of sexual harassment. Swiss defence minister Samuel Schmid declared: "I asked the chief commander to put an end to the assumptions, rumours and allegations. He has until Aug. 20 to confirm the confidence put in him."

Nef tendered his resignation a few days after Schmid’s statement. The government said it had "taken it into account", and that the legislature will decide whether to accept it later this month.

Swiss voters have rejected abolishing the army in two referendums, held in 1989 and 2001.

Polling Data

Would you support or oppose abolishing the Swiss Armed Forces?

Support 29.0%

Oppose 52.5%

Other / Not sure 18.5%

Source: Isopublic Methodology: Telephone interviews with 602 Swiss adults, conducted from Jul. 23 to Jul. 25, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

East Asia

Indonesians Will Back Women and Young Candidate

315 IRI Releases Survey of Indonesia Public Opinion

Jakarta, Indonesia – The International Republican Institute (IRI) today released its survey of Indonesian public opinion. The poll was conducted May 16 - June 1, 2008, by Polling Center based in Indonesia. Oversight and analysis was provided by James Fisfis of Chariot Research, San Francisco, USA.

On August 13, IRI presented the survey findings to leaders from all 34 national political parties contesting in the upcoming 2009 legislative elections, as well as government election officials and representatives from nongovernmental organizations supporting Indonesia’s electoral process.

Key findings in the public opinion poll included;

Nearly 80 percent of those surveyed indicated they would be more likely to vote for a political party that nominated women and young people as legislative candidates;

A majority of voters would support political party reform initiatives, such as public disclosure of party finances;

Sixty percent of respondents did not check to see if their names were on the 2004 voters’ list; and

More than half of those surveyed were dissatisfied with the performance of the current national and local legislatures.

The randomly selected sample consists of 2,000 adult men and women from 19 provinces in Indonesia. The margin of error for the national sample is +/- 2.2 percent with a response rate of 75.58 percent.

IRI has conducted surveys in Indonesia since 2003. The goal of the program is to gauge public opinion and to use this information in IRI’s work with Indonesia’s political parties.

316

IRI’s national polls are intended to assess national trends and the mood of the electorate regarding important issues such as: the approval of national government policies, political pluralism, women and youth participation, potential for electoral related violence, citizen engagement in the political process, and perceptions of corruption.

A nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, IRI advances freedom and democracy worldwide by developing political parties, civic institutions, open elections, good governance and the rule of law.

Note: The survey has been forwarded to Tatheer for her consideration

74% - Chinese Very Worried About the Environment

317

Africa

August 13, 2008

Many Zimbabweans Lacking Basic Necessities

44% have gone without enough food at least several times in the past year

318

Large percentages of Africans also report similar shortages of such basic necessities due to destruction of infrastructure during times of conflict, natural disasters, poor harvests, or some other reason. But historically Zimbabwe benefited from good agricultural production, mineral wealth, and a well-developed infrastructure.

The country's economic situation, however, has progressively deteriorated, and in 2008, 44% of Zimbabweans say they didn't have enough food to eat at least several times in the past year. As points of comparison with two neighboring countries, 43% of Zambians and 32% of Mozambicans say the same. Thirty-seven percent of Zimbabweans say they, at least several times, lacked enough clean water for home use (versus 45% of Zambians and 31% of Mozambicans).

Thirty-six percent of Zimbabweans also say they had gone without enough cooking fuel at least several times in the past year, which is on par with what Zambians report (35%) but slightly higher than what Mozambicans say (27%). Additionally, 55% of Zimbabweans say they went without a cash income at least several times in the past year, which is similar to what Zambians say (60%) but higher that what Mozambicans report (44%).

319

In 2008, Zimbabweans were more likely to report going without basic necessities than they were two years earlier, with the exception of food. The Gallup Poll finds cooking fuel and a cash income becoming the hardest to come by: In 2008, 58% of Zimbabweans said they went without enough cooking fuel in the past year, up from 44% in 2006. Eighty-eight percent say they went without a cash income in the past year, up from 80% in 2006.

Many Zimbabweans also report having gone without electric power. Thirty-four percent of Zimbabweans tell Gallup they have electricity in their home, and out of those, 92% say they went without electricity in their home either many times (49%) or several times (43%).

The High Cost of Hyperinflation

With eight-digit inflation (and prices changing at least daily), Zimbabweans' purchasing power is eroding fast: 84% find living on their present income difficult (45%) or very difficult (39%). Additionally, 13% of respondents tell Gallup they are getting by, and just 2% say they live comfortably on their present income.

320

Increasing Reliance on Remittances

Economists point out that in a hyperinflationary environment, where there is great uncertainty about prices every day, people change their consumption behavior. For example, they may purchase goods with just-earned wages for fear of being unable to afford them later, barter goods, or ask relatives living abroad to send them hard currency. In 2008, 40% of Zimbabweans now say they depend on receiving money from family members working in other countries to make a living, up from 26% in 2006.

321

Food Insecurity Challenges

Between 2006 and 2008, more Zimbabweans reported they did not have enough money to buy the food they needed for themselves or their families. Recently, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that "2.04 million people in rural and urban areas will be food insecure between July and September 2008, rising to 3.8 million people between October and peaking to about 5.1 million at the height of the hungry season between January and March 2009," or equivalent to 46% of the total population.

Once referred to as the breadbasket of southern Africa, Zimbabwe today must import maize, the country's main food staple, which it used to export. While residents living in rural or urban areas report lacking money to purchase food, in 2008 rural residents (83%) were far more likely than urban residents (69%) to say so.

322

Rural Zimbabweans (79%) are also more likely than urban respondents (69%) to report having gone without enough food to eat in the past year. A cash income has also been more challenging to come by in 2008 for those living in rural areas (92%) than those in urban communities (78%). However, urban Zimbabweans are more likely than their rural counterparts to report being without clean water for home use (90% vs. 50%) and not having enough cooking fuel (83% vs. 49%).

323

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, each year in Zimbabwe in April 2006, July 2007, and March 2008. The 2007 results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults in Zimbabwe, aged 15 and older, in June- July 2007. The 2006 results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults in Zimbabwe, aged 15 and older, in April 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In Zambia, results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, in July 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In Mozambique, results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, in July 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

324 Kenyan Election Was Void of Major Problems

IRI Statement on Kenya Election Day Poll

“In February 2008, IRI issued a statement outlining the reasons for withholding release of its Election Day poll, based on concerns raised by Craig Tufty of PSI in Alexandria, VA.

IRI subsequently arranged for Wilson Research Strategies of Washington, DC, to conduct a complete audit of the poll. Those findings were then reviewed by Bob Carpenter of American Viewpoint and Craig Tufty of PSI. Their findings, based on the new data entry, can be read here – Memo from Bryon Allen, Wilson Research Strategies ; Memo from Bob Carpenter, American Viewpoint ; Memo from Craig Tufty, PSI.

After this extensive analysis, IRI now has confidence in the validity of the audited Kenya Election Day poll data file and its results. The audited file yielded a statistically different result from the original data file. According to media accounts, the original poll showed an eight-point win for Raila Odinga. The audited file shows a six-point win. The difference in the two results is outside the poll’s margin of error of 1.35 percent.

“The poll revealed voters in Kenya believed the election was void of major problems such as voter fraud or maladministration. Additionally, the voters were skeptical that politicians at any level were able to fulfill promises. Candidates who had new ideas regarding the economy and employment were favored by the voters.

IRI conducts public opinion research worldwide, and it is the policy of the Institute not to release research findings until and unless there is a high level of confidence in the validity of the research.”

Note: The survey has been forwarded to Abbas for his consideration.

325 Business and Politics in the Muslim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report August 18-24, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: August 26, 2008

Review of Articles Introduction of the report Summary Middle East Corruption Worse than Terrorism for Israelis West Europe French Following Russia-Georgia Conflict Spaniards Still Peeved at Aznar Over Iraq War Danes Ponder Abolishing EU Opt-Outs No Good News for Britain’s Gordon Brown East Europe Poles Increasingly Favour U.S. Missile Deal Russians Ponder Future of South Ossetia Georgians More Likely to Support McCain Than Obama North America McCain, Obama Keep Race Tight in U.S. Americans Urge for Climate Change Action U.S. Employee-Reported Layoffs Highest in Five Years Half of Americans Say They Are Underpaid More Americans Question Religion's Role In Politics East Asia Malaysian PM Abdullah in Downward Trend Africa Many African Muslims Give High Marks to U.S. Leadership

326 Review of Articles

1. Poll Trends: Environmental Problems and Protection

Riley E. Dunlop (Prof. of Sociology, Washington State University)

Rik Scarce (PHD candidate in the same university)

Public Opinion Quarterly 1991

This article is based on the analysis of polls conducted by various organizations in 1970s and 1980s concerning environmental problems. The writer says that public concerns for environment rapidly developed in late sixties as a miracle of public opinion. It peaked around First Earth Day in 1970, then declined in the rest of decade. But the situation changed during the Reagan administration’s policies regarding environment and as a backlash there was substantial increase in environmental concern. Then with the discovery of problems like global warming and ozone depletion and an endless range of incidents like oil spills, pollution of beaches, contamination of water supplies fueled the concerns. Mass media stimulated by environmental activists, scientists and policy maker also played a significant role in shaping up these concerns. Similarly it got a new boost with the celebration of twentieth Earth Day.

The writer discusses various trends based on the polling data collected in 1980s and 1970s.

Unlike most of the social problems which disappear from public agenda environmental problem continue to exist as a second miracle of public opinion. The surveys shows that around the year 1990 environmental problems had become a salient problem, receiving significant MIP (most important problem) but still not the most important problem facing the nation. Majorities see environmental problems as serious and upward trend continued in 1980s. Similarly majorities see environmental quality as deteriorating and as likely to continue to deteriorate in future as well. Toward late eighties environmental problems were not only seen as serious but also posing a threat to humanity in general. Similarly the writer highlights that in the late eighties public perceptions that the government is doing too little regarding environmental issues increased and they got inclined for more action by the government. Support for more government regulations in this matter also increased. Public also showed willingness to pay higher prices for goods and services just to protect the environment.

The writer concluded that environmental concerns had reached an all time high. But he is still unclear about the strength of environmental concerns. Still he is certain that Americans are supportive of environmental protection.

327 2. Public perceptions of global warming:

United States and international perspectives

Richard J. Bord (Department of Sociology), Ann Fisher (Department of Agricultural economics and rural sociology), Robert E. O’Connor (Department of Political Science)

Pennsylvania State University, Climate Research 1998

The authors say regular assessment surveys about environmental problems began in 1970s and showed increasing public knowledge and awareness about environmental problems. While questions about global warming surfaced in the late 1980s and attracted much attention of the public.

He says the surveys about environmental issues generally have questions like some or all of the following: levels of awareness, actual knowledge, degrees of concern, perceived risk, and willingness to pay or sacrifice to mitigate and adapt to potential negative impacts.

He says that some topics generate ‘socially desirable’ responses and environmental issue is one of the same topics. Public awareness about global warming was limited prior to mid 1980s. The year 1988 was a key year in this regard. Firstly due to drought and heat wave coincided with James Hansen’s testimony before the Congress about global warming changed the public perceptions about the issue. It was further fueled by media and environmental groups.

The data shows that the concern was quite widespread. It was equally shared in East Europe and South America along with the North American countries of U.S and Canada.

With the help of various surveys the writer showed that in a comparative context global warming was at the bottom of concerns expressed by Americans. Personal, social and environmental problems in general toped the list and slowing the global warming rate stood at the fourth level.

In general in this article the writers have summarized the national (U.S) and international survey data on global warming in terms of levels of awareness, actual knowledge, degree of concern, perceived risk, and willingness to pay or sacrifice to mitigate or adapt to potential negative impacts. The data indicate the following: solid awareness of and support for general environmental goals; an awareness of and concern for global warming; a flawed understanding of global warming (concerning its causes), considerable perceived threat from global warming but less so than for most other issues; and a limited willingness to sacrifice to better cope with global warming. Although global warming generates concern around the globe, it is not a ‘front-burner’ issue. Concern tends to be highest in Canada, most of Europe and South America. Errors in assessing

328 causes of global warming are global in nature. International data demonstrates considerable support for economic sacrifices to deal with environmental problems, including global warming. National data support but go beyond earlier data by implying that global warming is not a salient issue and that people across the globe will support global climate change initiatives that do not levy unusual hardships; but they cannot be expected to voluntarily alter their lifestyles.

Introduction of Report

This week’s report consists of fifteen surveys and review of two articles. Two of these surveys are of global significance; four are of regional significance while nine surveys are of national importance for their respective countries.

Political Issues

U.S Presidential campaign is going neck and neck between Obama and McCain. John McCain has minimized Senator Obama’s lead and matched him with equal numbers in Gallup daily election tracking more than once. Still Obama is irregularly maintaining just couple of points lead over McCain. After Israelis support for McCain has come from Georgians across the continents. Georgians are more supportive of McCain than Obama but interestingly more than half came up with ‘don’t know’ response. This shows their lack of interest in the U.S. presidential elections.

The crisis of South Ossetia is generating concerns in Europe. Almost a two third majority in France are worried about the issue. They fear it may not destabilize the whole Europe. But the Russians think differently. Four in five Russians think it should either be declared an independent republic or Russia should annex it. The heat of the crisis can also be felt in Poland which is now turning Poles favor U.S. missile defence shield.

A change in Americans attitude toward role of religion in politics has been identified in a new Pew Research Center survey. After a decade Americans are now in favor of separating religion from politics. The survey finds that a narrow majority of the public says that churches and other houses of worship should keep out of political matters and not express their views on day-to-day social and political matters. Canadians also showed the same kind of feelings in a survey last week.

An interesting survey of Israeli public shows that public believes corruption is worse than terrorism. It also finds that Israelis believe Arabs and Iran to be a threat for their country but equally dangerous threat is corruption for them and terrorism comes at fourth after poverty.

Economic Issues

329 The reported pessimism about U.S. economy is quite deep rooted. Many Americans say that the number of laid off worker is very high (30%), quite comparable with the highest of 34 per cent by Gallup in 2004. Similarly they are now increasingly saying that they are poorly paid. This can help explain the feelings of worsening life standard and the pessimism in general about U.S. economy.

Social Issues

The intensity of issues related with corruption can be felt by a survey of Israeli public mentioned above. Corruption is supposed to be worse than terrorism.

During the past two months we have seen that across the globe publics are quite aware about the issue of climate change. Respondents in several countries have expressed their willingness to pay more for goods and services in order to combat the environmental problems. Last week survey finds that Americans are pressing their administration to do more about climate change. The support is as high as 68 percent.

Summary

Middle East

Corruption Worse than Terrorism for Israelis

About a quarter of people in Israel think their country is equally endangered by Arab countries and political corruption, according to a poll by Keevoon. 24 per cent of respondents say Arab countries, including Iran, represent a major threat to Israel, while the same proportion thinks corruption is the greatest issue facing the country. August 19, 2008

West Europe

French Following Russia-Georgia Conflict

The majority of people in France are concerned with the developments of the conflict between Russia and Georgia, according to a poll by CSA published in Le Parisien. 69 per cent of respondents are very or moderately worried about the hostilities, and 37 per cent fear the conflict may destabilize Europe. August 23, 2008

Spaniards Still Peeved at Aznar Over Iraq War

Adults in Spain clearly disagree with a former president’s decision to back the coalition effort, according to a poll by Sigma Dos published in El Mundo. 81.1 per cent of respondents think José María Aznar was wrong in supporting the Iraq

330 War. August 20, 2008

Danes Ponder Abolishing EU Opt-Outs

Two-in-five Danish adults would keep their country outside of some of the security and defence policies of the European Union (EU), according to a poll by Catinét Research released by Ritzau. 39.4 per cent of respondents oppose abolishing the EU opt-outs.

August 19, 2008

No Good News for Britain’s Gordon Brown

British prime minister and Labour party leader Gordon Brown continues to disappoint many people in the country, according to a poll by YouGov. 75 per cent of respondents think Brown is doing badly as head of government, down two points since July.

August 23, 2008

East Europe

Poles Increasingly Favour U.S. Missile Deal

Support for participating in a United States military defence program has soared in Poland, according to a poll by GFK published in Rzeczpospolita. 58 per cent of respondents favour Poland hosting an American missile-defence base, up 28 points since March 2007.

August 24, 2008

Russians Ponder Future of South Ossetia

Most people in Russia think the Georgian separatist region of South Ossetia should either become fully independent or be annexed to Russia, according to a poll by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center. 41 per cent of respondents think South Ossetia should be granted independence from Georgia, while 39 per cent think it should be welcomed into the Russian Federation. August 24, 2008

Georgians More Likely to Support McCain Than Obama

More Georgians say that they would like to see Republican Sen. John McCain elected U.S. president (23%) than say the same about Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (15%), while a clear majority of Georgians say they don't know (57%).

331 August 21, 2008

North America

McCain, Obama Keep Race Tight in U.S.

There is no clear frontrunner in the 2008 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby International for Associated Television News. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican Arizona senator John McCain, while 41 per cent would back Democratic Illinois senator Barack Obama. August 19, 2008

Americans Urge for Climate Change Action

Two-thirds of adults in the United States think their country should tackle global warming regardless of what other countries do, according to a poll by TNS, ABC News, Stanford University and Planet Green. 68 per cent of respondents think their country should start combating climate change even if others do less. August 22, 2008

U.S. Employee-Reported Layoffs Highest in Five Years

Thirty percent of Americans report that their employers have laid off employees during the past six months -- up from 22% a year ago, and the highest level since August 2003, when 34% of employees said this was the case.

August 18, 2008

Half of Americans Say They Are Underpaid

When asked to say in all honesty how they personally feel about their pay, 51% of Americans feel they are underpaid for the work they do, 46% feel they are paid about the right amount, and 3% feel they are overpaid.

August 18, 2008

More Americans Question Religion's Role In Politics

A Pew survey finds that after a decade a narrow majority of the public say that churches and other houses of worship should keep out of political matters and not express their views on day-to-day social and political matters.

August 21, 2008

East Asia

332 Malaysian PM Abdullah in Downward Trend

Discontent with Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is rapidly growing in Malaysia, according to a poll by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research. 54 per cent of respondents disapprove of Badawi’s performance, up 23 points since March. August 23, 2008

Africa

Many African Muslims Give High Marks to U.S. Leadership

Gallup USA finds that approval of U.S. leadership among Muslims living in sub- Saharan Africa is higher than approval among residents in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region.

August 22, 2008

Middle East

Corruption Worse than Terrorism for Israelis

August 19, 2008

Poverty is third on the list with 22 per cent, followed by terrorist attacks with 12 per cent, and demographic issues with seven per cent.

In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Moshe Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime. On Jul. 31,

333 Olmert announced that he will not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership in September, which will effectively end his tenure.

On Aug. 15, Talanksy, the key witness in the investigation into Olmert’s alleged wrongdoing, said he would stop collaborating with the trial because he is now facing justice in the United States. Talansky’s defence attorney Brad Simon declared: "Mr. Talansky does not intend to appear in court on August 31, 2008. (...) By cooperating with Israeli authorities, Mr. Talansky has placed himself in legal jeopardy here in the United States."

Polling Data

What is the greatest threat facing Israel?

Arab countries (including Iran) 24%

Corruption 24%

Poverty 22%

Terrorist attacks 12%

Demographic issues 7%

Source: Keevoon Methodology: Interviews with 500 Jewish Israelis, conducted on Jul. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

West Europe

French Following Russia-Georgia Conflict

August 23, 2008

According to international regulations, South Ossetia and Abkhazia belong to Georgia—a former Soviet republic. In the early 1990s, both pro-Russian regions became de facto independent but failed to be fully recognized as sovereign nations. Separatist forces operate in both regions. Georgia is currently led by pro-Western politicians and is in talks to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

334 On Aug. 7, the Georgian government sent troops into South Ossetia in a surprise attack to assert sovereignty over the region. The following day, Russian tanks entered South Ossetia and confronted the Georgian army. The Russian government claimed that it was acting in defence of Russian citizens living in the region. In recent years, Russia has handed Russian passports to the vast majority of South Ossetia residents. Russian troops occupied South Ossetia and other parts of Georgia, and some disturbances were reported in Abkhazia as well.

On Aug. 12, French president Nicolas Sarkozy—whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU)—urged Russia to withdraw its forces from Georgia as he brokered a ceasefire between the two countries. On Aug. 17, Sarkozy said that he warned Russian president Dmitry Medvedev of "serious consequences" if his country fails to deliver on its part of the deal, including the troop pull-out.

Polling Data

As you now, a conflict has broken out between Russia and Georgia. How worried are you about this conflict?

Very worried 14%

Moderately worried 55%

Not too worried 13%

Not worried at all 13%

No answer 5%

In your view, will the conflict...

Only involve Russia and Georgia 46%

Grow larger and destabilize Europe 37%

No answer 17%

Source: CSA / Le Parisien Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,003 French adults, conducted on Aug. 12, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Spaniards Still Peeved at Aznar Over Iraq War

August 20, 2008

335 Adults in Spain clearly disagree with a former president’s decision to back the coalition effort, according to a poll by Sigma Dos published in El Mundo. 81.1 per cent of respondents think José María Aznar was wrong in supporting the Iraq War.

Aznar—a member of the conservative Popular Party (PP)—governed Spain from 1996 to 2004. In 2003, Aznar backed the United States-led coalition effort in Iraq. On Mar. 16, 2003, Aznar participated in a high-level meeting at the Azores islands with U.S. president George Bush, British prime minister Tony Blair and Portuguese prime minister Jose Durao Barroso.

In September 2007, the transcript of a conversation between Aznar and U.S. president George W. Bush—which took place on Feb. 22, 2003—was made public. Aznar calls on Bush to "help" in the public opinion arena, because supporting the coalition effort would mean "a change in a policy that Spain has followed for 200 years."

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero of the Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE) was sworn in as president in April 2004, following his party’s victory in the legislative election. Zapatero ordered the return of Spain’s 1,420 soldiers stationed in Iraq just hours after naming his cabinet.

The coalition effort against Saddam Hussein’s regime was launched in March 2003. At least 4,458 soldiers from 23 nations—including 11 Spaniards—have died during the military operation.

In March 2008, Aznar defended his decision to support the coalition effort, saying, "The Iraqi people can take part in elections, and speak freely. There is freedom in the country and the possibility of establishing a democracy. (...) The world is better off without Saddam Hussein and without the Taliban."

Polling Data

Do you think former Spanish president José María Aznar was right or wrong in supporting the Iraq War?

Right 12.2%

Wrong 81.1%

Not sure 6.7%

Source: Sigma Dos / El Mundo Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Spanish adults, conducted in August 2008. Margin of error is 3.16 per cent.

Danes Ponder Abolishing EU Opt-Outs

336 August 19, 2008

In May 1993, Denmark adopted the EU Maastricht Treaty with four exemptions: the adoption of a single European currency, joint defence, judiciary cooperation—which allows Denmark to have its own immigration and asylum policy—and European citizenship.

Danish prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen of the Left, Liberal Party of Denmark (V) has said he wants to put the four EU exemptions to a nationwide vote in 2009. Danish voters rejected the euro in a September 2000 plebiscite.

On Aug. 7, Rasmussen conceded that Ireland’s rejection of a new EU common treaty will affect his plans, saying, "The situation is so unclear after the Irish vote that a Danish referendum is no longer relevant."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose abolishing the European Union (EU) security and defence policy opt-outs?

Support 30.1%

Oppose 39.4%

Not sure 30.5%

Source: Catinét Research / Ritzau Methodology: Interviews with 1,070 Dane adults, conducted from Aug. 7 to Aug. 11, 2008. Margin of error is 2.7 per cent.

No Good News for Britain’s Gordon Brown

August 23, 2008

337 British prime minister and Labour party leader Gordon Brown continues to disappoint many people in the country, according to a poll by YouGov. 75 per cent of respondents think Brown is doing badly as head of government, down two points since July.

Conversely, 59 per cent of respondents think Conservative and official opposition leader David Cameron is doing a good job.

On Aug. 21, Brown guaranteed that Labour will focus on economic issues in the next legislative period, saying, "That’s what we have been working on over the summer and that’s what we intend to do. (…) I believe people will see a government that is not only on their side, but very active on their behalf."

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

Do you think Gordon Brown is doing well or badly as prime minister?

Aug. 2008 Jul. 2008 Jun. 2008

Well 20% 19% 16%

Badly 75% 77% 78%

Don’t know 5% 5% 5%

Do you think David Cameron is doing well or badly as Conservative leader?

Aug. 2008 Jul. 2008 Jun. 2008

Well 59% 61% 63%

Badly 27% 28% 26%

338 Don’t know 13% 12% 11%

Source: YouGov Methodology: Online interviews with 1,745 British voters, conducted on Aug. 14 and Aug. 15, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

East Europe

Poles Increasingly Favour U.S. Missile Deal

August 24, 2008

In January 2007, the U.S. issued a formal request to place a radar base in the Czech Republic—in a military area southwest of Prague—as well as 10 interceptor missiles in Poland.

Some countries doubt that Iran could actually represent a danger for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and fear the missile-defence shield could eventually become a threat to other nations instead—including Russia.

On Aug. 19, Polish president Lech Kaczynski warned that Poland would not give in to what he called "threats from Russia" over the missile pact, saying, "No-one can dictate to Poland what it should do. That’s in the past. Our neighbours should now understand that our nation will never give in, nor allow itself to be intimidated."

On Aug. 20, U.S. state secretary Condoleezza Rice and Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski signed the treaty that approves the missile base. Rice discussed Russia’s negative reaction to the decision, saying, "When you threaten Poland, you perhaps forget that it is not 1988. It’s 2008 and the United States has a firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland’s territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it’s probably not wise to throw these threats around."

Polling Data

339 Do you support or oppose Poland hosting a U.S. missile defence base?

Mar. Aug. 2008 2007

Support 58% 30%

Oppose 37% 51%

Source: GFK / Rzeczpospolita Methodology: Interviews to 500 Polish adults, conducted on Aug. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Russians Ponder Future of South Ossetia

August 24, 2008

Additionally, 72 per cent of respondents think Russian troops should not comply with a cease-fire deal and remain stationed in South Ossetia.

On Aug. 7, the Georgian government sent troops into South Ossetia in a surprise attack to assert sovereignty over the region. The following day, Russian tanks entered South Ossetia and confronted the Georgian army. The Russian government claimed that it was acting in defence of Russian citizens living in the region. In recent years, Russia has handed Russian passports to the vast majority of South Ossetia residents. Russian troops occupied South Ossetia and other parts of Georgia, and some disturbances were reported in Abkhazia as well.

On Aug. 12, French president Nicolas Sarkozy—whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU)—brokered a cease fire which included a commitment by Russia to withdraw its forces from Georgian territory.

On Aug. 21, Russia announced it was pulling out a large number of its soldiers from Georgia, but said it would leave 500 soldiers in South Ossetia and what it called a buffer

340 zone or a "zone of responsibility" inside Georgia’s territory. Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili reacted to the news, saying, "There will be no buffer zones. We will never live with any buffer zones. We’ll never allow anything like this."

Polling Data

In your view, which is the best solution for the situation in South Ossetia?

Granting South Ossetia more autonomy within Georgia 4%

Granting independence to South Ossetia 41%

Bringing South Ossetia into the Russian Federation 39%

Other 3%

Hard to answer 13%

Russia is supposed to withdraw its soldiers from South Ossetia. What do you think Russia should do?

Take soldiers out of South Ossetia 14%

Leave the soldiers in South Ossetia 72%

Hard to answer 14%

Source: All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center Methodology: Interviews with 1594 Russian adults, conducted from Aug. 10 to Aug. 13, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.

August 21, 2008

Georgians More Likely to Support McCain Than Obama

But a majority of citizens do not have an opinion

341

It is surprising to see how little interest Georgian residents have in the U.S. election, especially when considering that a majority of Georgians believe it makes a difference to their country who is elected president of the United States.

Gallup surveyed Georgians in June 2008, before their country's recent confrontation with Russia vaulted its relationship with the United States into the headlines. Nonetheless, it is important to note Georgia has forged close ties with the United States since Mikheil Saakashvili became president in 2004.

342 Still, the finding that Georgians are more likely to prefer McCain rather Obama (eight- percentage-point difference) stands in stark contrast from what Gallup Polls find around the world. In the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, for example, strong majorities prefer Obama to McCain. Further, even in other countries with high percentages of "don't know" responses, Obama generally wins among those who do respond.

What Sets Georgia Apart?

McCain's lead in Georgia likely stems in part from President Bush's attention and praise of the country during his administration. In the most recent survey, 41% of Georgians approved of U.S. leadership, versus 23% who disapprove. This again contrasts what Gallup finds around most of the world. Thus as the Republican nominee, McCain may benefit from the close ties the Bush administration has forged in Georgia, as well as Bush's visit to the country in 2005, where we called the former Soviet nation "a beacon of liberty."

Another factor is McCain's direct involvement in Georgia. While Obama has never visited Georgia, McCain is reported to be in frequent contact with President Saakashvili, and has traveled to Georgia several times, even once visiting the now much-discussed region of South Ossetia.

Gallup is polling citizens of more than 70 countries about their views on the U.S. election and plans to report the first wave of results in early September on Gallup.com.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,080 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in June 2008 in Georgia. For security reasons, Gallup did not poll in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

North America

McCain, Obama Keep Race Tight in U.S.

August 19, 2008

343 Independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian nominee Bob Barr are tied for third place with two per cent. 13 per cent of respondents would vote for other candidates, or remain undecided.

Support for McCain increased by six points since July, while backing for Obama dropped by five points.

On Aug. 7, Obama voiced support for implementing infrastructure projects, saying, "That would put people back to work right away. But it would also spur on economic activity for people who supply contractors. (...) There was this sense of possibility even in the face of hardship and the face of struggle [during the Great Depression]. I think we’ve got to rediscover this kind of spirit."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

McCain v. Obama - 2008 U.S. presidential election (w/ Nader and Barr)

Aug. 2008 Jul. 2008 Jun. 2008

John McCain (R) 42% 36% 40%

Barack Obama (D) 41% 46% 45%

Ralph Nader (I) 2% 3% 3%

Bob Barr (L) 2% 3% 3%

Other / Unsure 13% 12% 10%

Source: Zogby International / Associated Television News Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,011 likely American voters, conducted on Jul. 31 and Aug. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 3.0 per cent.

Americans Urge for Climate Change Action

August 22, 2008

344 Two-thirds of adults in the United States think their country should tackle global warming regardless of what other countries do, according to a poll by TNS, ABC News, Stanford University and Planet Green. 68 per cent of respondents think their country should start combating climate change even if others do less.

Conversely, 18 per cent of respondents think the U.S. should only act if other countries such as China and India commit as well, and 13 per cent believe no action is necessary.

In 1998, several countries agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, a proposed amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The agreement commits nations to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The U.S. has not ratified the treaty, which is due to expire in 2012.

In October 2007, former U.S. vice-president Al Gore and the IPCC were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change."

On Aug. 19, Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd said the next U.S. president would certainly deal with climate change, saying, "What is heartening on that question is that both candidates, Republican and Democrat, have indicated that they will be moving on this, and with an ambitious set of targets."

New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark said she hopes the U.S. eventually joins the Kyoto Protocol, adding, "If, post-election, the U.S. joins the Kyoto system, its involvement would take away the excuses for inaction from developing countries like China and India."

Polling Data

Do you think the United States should take action on global warming only if other major industrial countries such as China and India agree to do equally effective things, that the United States should take action even if these other countries do less, or that the United States should not take action on this at all?

Take action only if others do 18%

Take action even if others do less 68%

Not take action at all 13%

345 Unsure 2%

Source: TNS / ABC News / Stanford University / Planet Green Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted from Jul. 23 to Jul. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

August 18, 2008

U.S. Employee-Reported Layoffs Highest in Five Years

Three in four say now is a “bad time” to find a quality job

The percentage of Americans reporting job layoffs at their companies does not vary significantly by income. However, perceptions of layoffs over the past six months are greatest in the West, with 40% of employees reporting this -- more than in any other region.

346

Bad Time to Find a Quality Job

Additionally, 75% of Americans believe now is a bad time to find a quality job -- a percentage that has remained essentially unchanged since April. The last few months have seen the highest level of job market pessimism since 2003.

Employees' Personal Job Worries Have Not Increased

While Americans' perceptions of employer layoffs and their ability to find a quality job are at five-year lows, working Americans' worries that their wages will be reduced, that they personally will be laid off, or that their companies will move jobs overseas are not

347 much different than they have been in recent years. Lower- and middle-income Americans are somewhat more worried than upper-income Americans that their benefits will be reduced and that their work hours will be cut.

Commentary

Last week, the government's four-week moving average of first-time claims for unemployment increased to its highest level since April 2002. This suggests that job market conditions are likely to continue to deteriorate in the months ahead. Employers are unlikely to build their employee workforces given the slowing economy, the end of the tax rebates, and all of the factors potentially affecting consumer spending in a negative way -- including energy prices, housing, and the consumer credit crunch. As a result, employed Americans' worries about their personal job situations may tend to increase as the remainder of this year unfolds.

On the other hand, the sharp drop in oil and gas prices over the past 30 days has had a positive impact on consumer confidence. As a result, the real question for the economy looking ahead -- including the all-important Christmas shopping season -- seems to be whether declining gas prices, even though they remain far above year-ago levels, will be enough not only to offset further deterioration in the jobs market but also to increase consumers' real disposable incomes enough to significantly stimulate consumer spending. At this point, it appears the downward momentum in the jobs market may be hard to reverse in time for the Christmas holidays.

Survey Methods

348 Results based on telephone interviews with 1,009 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 7-10, 2008. For results based on the full sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on interviews conducted with 557 adults employed full or part-time, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 18, 2008

Half of Americans Say They Are Underpaid

Middle- and lower-income Americans more likely to say so

More Middle- and Lower-Income Americans Feel Underpaid

Some groups of Americans are more likely than others to say they are underpaid. Only 38% of those making $75,000 or more a year say they are underpaid, compared to 62% of

349 those making less than $75,000. Somewhat surprisingly, the difference between men and women on this measure is much smaller, with 47% of men and 55% of women saying they are underpaid. Similarly, 59% of Democrats say they are underpaid, compared to 49% of independents and 44% of Republicans.

Little Difference by Race or Education

There is little difference by race or by education in perceptions of being underpaid. Fifty- one percent of both whites and nonwhites say they feel underpaid. Similarly, 49% of those with high school educations or less say they are underpaid, compared to 52% of those with at least some college education.

350

Seeking Change

Last week, the Labor Department reported the largest annual cost-of-living increase in 17 years. At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total number of people receiving jobless benefits is close to a five-year high. No wonder, then, that the Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.1% in July.

Gallup's new polling shows that many consumers -- particularly those with lower and middle incomes -- are feeling underpaid for the work they do. How much of these employee perceptions result from globalization and the income compression it has produced over the past many years is hard to assess. So is the impact of declining real incomes. For example, earlier this month, the Commerce Department also reported that consumers' real disposable personal income and real consumer spending declined in June.

351 Regardless, this feeling of "unfairness" in the area of employee compensation may not play out as much in the economic as in the political arena later this year. A weak economy may not be conducive to employees seeking higher wages, but it may be conducive to seeking political change.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 557 national adults, aged 18 and older and employed full- or part-time, conducted Aug. 7-10, 2008. For results based on the sample of employed adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 21, 2008

More Americans Question Religion's Role In Politics

Some Social Conservative Disillusionment

Some Americans are having a change of heart about mixing religion and politics. A new survey finds a narrow majority of the public saying that churches and other houses of worship should keep out of political matters and not express their views on day-to-day social and political matters. For a decade, majorities of Americans had voiced support for religious institutions speaking out on such issues.

352 The new national survey by the Pew Research Center reveals that most of the reconsideration of the desirability of religious involvement in politics has occurred among conservatives. Four years ago, just 30% of conservatives believed that churches and other houses of worship should stay out of politics. Today, 50% of conservatives express this view.

As a result, conservatives' views on this issue are much more in line with the views of moderates and liberals than was previously the case. Similarly, the sharp divisions between Republicans and Democrats that previously existed on this issue have disappeared.

There are other signs in the new poll about a potential change in the climate of opinion about mixing religion and politics. First, the survey finds a small but significant increase since 2004 in the percentage of respondents saying that they are uncomfortable when they hear politicians talk about how religious they are - from 40% to 46%. Again, the increase in negative sentiment about religion and politics is much more apparent among Republicans than among Democrats.

Second, while the Republican Party is most often seen as the party friendly toward religion, the Democratic Party has made gains in this area. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) now say the Democratic Party is generally friendly toward religion, up from just 26% two years ago. Nevertheless, considerably more people (52%) continue to view the GOP as friendly toward religion.

353

The poll by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life finds increasing numbers of Americans believing that religiously defined ideological groups have too much control over the parties themselves. Nearly half (48%) say religious conservatives have too much influence over the Republican Party, up from 43% in August 2007. At the same time, more people say that liberals who are not religious have too much sway over the Democrats than did so last year (43% today vs. 37% then).

Social Conservatives' Discontents

354 In addition to somewhat greater worries about the way religious and non-religious groups are influencing the parties, the survey suggests that frustration and disillusionment among social conservatives may be a part of the reason why a greater number now think that religious institutions should keep out of politics. However, there is little to suggest that social conservatives want religion to be a less important element in American politics.

The greatest increases since 2004 in the view that churches and other houses of worship should not express themselves on political matters have occurred among less-educated Republicans and people who say that social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage will be important to their vote. For example, among people who rate gay marriage as a top voting issue, the percentage saying that churches should stay out of politics soared from 25% in 2004 to 50% currently; there was little change over this period on this question among people who do not view same-sex marriage as a very important issue.

Another indication that disillusionment may be in play in increased opposition to the mixing of religion and politics is seen in the fact that this sentiment has increased most among people who rate the major parties as unfriendly toward religion. The views of citizens who see the parties as neutral or friendly toward religion have been more stable on the question of whether churches and other houses of worship should speak out on political issues.

In short, the change of mind about the role of religious institutions in politics is most apparent among people who are most concerned about the very issues that churches and other houses of worship have focused on, and among those who fault the parties for their friendliness toward religion.

Changes in views about the role of churches in politics notwithstanding, many of the contours of American public opinion relating to broad questions of religion and politics remain largely unchanged. Two-thirds of the public (66%) say that churches and other houses of worship should not endorse one candidate over another, which is unchanged since 2004 (65%). And while most say it is important for presidents to have strong religious beliefs, they are divided about whether there currently is too much, or too little, in the way of expressions of faith by contemporary political leaders. Roughly comparable numbers say political leaders express their religious beliefs too much (29%), too little (36%) or the right amount (28%).

Despite their increased reluctance to see religious institutions speaking out on politics, conservatives and Republicans continue to express very strong support for a religious president and relatively high levels of support for expressions of religious faith and prayer by political leaders.

Soft Support Among Social Conservatives for McCain

While some social conservatives are expressing changed views about religion and politics, there is little indication that they are changing their voting preferences: John

355 McCain has about as large a lead over Barack Obama among conservatives and white evangelicals as George Bush did at this stage in the campaign four years ago.

However, as has been the case since June, the current survey shows much more tepid support for McCain among white evangelical Protestants and conservatives generally than Bush enjoyed in August 2004. Just 28% of white evangelical Protestants say they are strong backers of the Arizona senator. Four years ago, 57% of white evangelicals described themselves as strong backers of President Bush.

As was the case in previous presidential elections, the voting inclinations of Catholic voters - especially white non-Hispanic Catholics - remain fluid. Four years ago at this time John Kerry held a slight edge over Bush among white non-Hispanic Catholics; but he lost that lead by the election. In the current poll, this group, which accounts for 18% of the electorate, is divided almost evenly: 45% support McCain, while 44% favor Obama.

Other Findings

The survey was conducted by telephone - both landline phones and cell phones - from July 31-Aug. 10 among a national sample of 2,905 adults. It finds that as the Democratic Party's advantage in party identification has grown, there have been some notable changes in party affiliation within key religious groups. In 2008, about half of registered voters (51%) identify themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while just 38% identify as Republicans or Republican leaners. In 2004, Democrats held only a slight, three-point advantage in party affiliation (47% to 44%).

While white non-Hispanic Catholics are divided in their presidential choices, they are increasingly identifying as Democrats. In surveys conducted this year, 49% of white non- Hispanic Catholics either affiliate with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 40% identify with the GOP. In 2004, 47% of white non-Hispanic Catholics identified with the GOP while 45% affiliated with the Democratic Party.

The survey finds that the economy continues to dominate the concerns of voters. Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) say the economy will be very important to their vote this fall, up from

356 78% in October 2004. Energy has surged among voters' concerns: 77% view energy as very important, compared with only 54% in the closing weeks of the last campaign.

For the most part, the issues that are important to the public as a whole are also important to particular religious groups. However, social issues, such as same-sex marriage, continue to be more important for white evangelicals than for other registered voters. Currently, 46% of white evangelicals say same-sex marriage will be a very important voting issue, compared with 28% of all voters. That is only somewhat less than the percentage of white evangelical voters who viewed same-sex marriage as very important in October 2004 (49%).

East Asia

Malaysian PM Abdullah in Downward Trend

August 23, 2008

The ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO)—the biggest party in a coalition of 12 political factions known as the National Front (BN)—has formed the government after every election since the Asian country attained its independence from Britain in 1957.

Abdullah took over as prime minister in October 2003, after the retirement of Mahathir Mohamad, who served for more than 22 years. In the March 2004 election, the National Front secured 198 of the 219 seats in the House of Representatives. Abdullah was sworn in as head of government with the biggest majority in three decades.

In the March 2008 ballot, the National Front won 140 seats in the legislature. The coalition’s share of the vote dropped drastically, from 64.4 per cent in 2004, to 50.27 per cent in 2008. According to Human Rights Watch, the most recent election was "grossly unfair" and marred by irregularities.

On Aug. 22, Abdullah announced a reduction in fuel prices of 5.6 per cent per litre in order to alleviate the country’s growing inflation. The prime minister later denied allegations that the cut seeks to influence an upcoming local election, saying, "It has nothing to do with it. It is for all the people of Malaysia not just for Permatang Pauh. Each time I meet reporters I keep getting asked when the prices will be reduced, now I have done it. And now still more questions. The reduction in petrol prices is the best deal."

Polling Data

357 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is performing his job as prime minister?

Jul. 2008 Mar. 2008 Dec. 2007

Approve 42% 53% 61%

Disapprove 54% 31% 30%

Not sure / No reply 4% 6% 9%

Source: Merdeka Center for Opinion Research Methodology: Telephone Interviews with 1,030 Malaysian voters, conducted Jul. 4 to Jul. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

August 22, 2008

Many African Muslims Give High Marks to U.S. Leadership

Three-quarters of Muslims in Mali, Senegal approve

Approval of U.S. leadership among Muslims living in sub-Saharan Africa is higher than approval among residents in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region.

358

When asked in 2007 whether they approved of the job performance of the leadership of the United States, strong majorities of self-identified Muslims in Sierra Leone, Mali, Senegal, and Guinea said they did approve. In Chad, Mauritania, and Niger, Muslim residents' approval is lower (50% in each of the three Sahelian countries approve of U.S. leadership). But it is still higher than the median 13% approval rating across 11 countries surveyed in the MENA region in 2007. Within the region, approval ratings range from 7% in the United Arab Emirates and 9% in Saudi Arabia to 55% in Morocco.

Among Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa surveyed, approval is lowest in Sudan (31%). However, that number is identical to American respondents' approval of their own leadership (31%) when they were asked the same question in August 2007. As a point of comparison, the median approval score of U.S. leadership among the public in the European Union (excluding Luxembourg and Malta) is 20%.

359 How They Stay Plugged in About the Outside World

Greater reliance on certain types of news media may help explain, at least in part, why approval of U.S. leadership is higher among Muslims living in sub-Saharan Africa than approval among those living in the MENA region. Among African Muslims surveyed, radio (national and international) is by far the source they consider "very important" in keeping them well-informed about events in other countries. But for those living in the MENA region, international television is the source they deem to be very important to stay abreast of international news events.

While independent media are developing in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, national governments still control the airwaves and other sources of information that tend to portray the United States more favorably. Furthermore, more Muslims respondents living in the MENA region said they had access to electricity and had a television than Muslim respondents living in sub-Saharan Africa who said the same. As a result, fewer Muslims living in Sub-Saharan Africa are likely to watch international television channels that may be critical of U.S. policy.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews conducted throughout 2006 and 2007. Randomly selected sample sizes typically number 1,000 residents, aged 15 and older, in the United States, the 25 European Union member countries (excluding

360 Luxembourg and Malta), and the 11 Middle East North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestinian Territories, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen) polled. For results based on samples of this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

In Chad, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Sudan, results are based on face-to-face interviews with at least 500 Muslim adults in each country, aged 15 and older, in 2007. The margin of error in sub-Saharan African countries is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

361 Business and Politics in The Muslim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report M. Zubair August 25-31, 2008 Presentation: September 02, 2008

Review of Articles Introduction of the Report Summary of the Report Middle East Hamas popularity is on decline Israelis Would Back Kadima Led by Livni Two State Solution is Best for Israelis West Europe French Majority Would Leave Afghanistan Germans Object to Georgia Entering NATO West Should Fear Russia, Say Britons East Europe Russia Friend, U.S. Foe for Belarusians Russians Want to Annex South Ossetia North America No Doubt Economy is Bad, Say Americans Afghanistan War Not Going Well, Say Americans Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Lead 49% to 41% Health Care is Key Issue for Canadian Voters South America Fewer Mexicans Trust Their Democratic System East Asia Malaysians Think Anwar is Innocent Global Polls Muslims Positive About Globalization, Trade

362 Review of Articles

International Public Opinion on the Environment

David E. Bloom

Professor of Economics, Columbia University, New York

American Association For the advancement of Science

July 1995

This article analyzes public opinion data on environmental issues collected in two major surveys: Gallup Health of the Planet 1992 and Louis Harris and Associates 1988-89. The data reveal substantial concern about the environment in both developing and industrial countries along with perceptions that the quality of environment has declined and will continue to decline. Developing country respondents rate their local and national environmental quality lower than do industrial country respondents, whereas both groups rate global environmental quality about the same. The data also reveal considerable willingness among the developing and industrial countries to accept responsibility for the world’s environmental problems and recognition of the importance of governments in addressing local and national environmental issues and of strong international agencies in addressing transnational issues.

International Attitude Towards Environment and Development Riley E. Dunlap Green Globe Yearbook of International Co-operation on Environment and Development 1994, Oxford University Press

This article is based on analyses of Gallup's Health of the Planet survey 1992. The writer has emphasized upon findings from the survey that reveal that environmental deterioration is seen as very serious by citizens of all types of nations. While the foci of their concerns vary somewhat, residents of both rich and poor countries see environmental conditions as serious problems. No longer is concern about environmental quality limited to those who live in the wealthy, industrialized northern hemisphere—if it ever was. Furthermore, citizens in the two-dozen nations included in the survey do not reveal the vast polarization in terms of who is seen as responsible for environmental problems, nor in terms of what policies ought to be employed to combat such problems that were present among world leaders attending the Earth Summit.

The Health of the Planet survey demonstrates virtually world-wide citizen awareness that our planet is indeed in poor health, and great concern for its future well-being. The results

363 not only document widespread citizen awareness and concern, but highlight the existence of a greater degree of international consensus about environmental problems than is widely assumed to exist, and than was certainly reflected at the Earth Summit. Those concerned about the future of the planet can only hope that world leaders will continue to strive to overcome their differences and move toward a similar degree of consensus in future international gatherings and negotiations on environmental issues.

Introduction of the Report

This week report consists of fifteen surveys published during last week. Six of these surveys are of global significance, one is of regional importance and eight are of national significance for their respective countries.

Political issues

This week most of the surveys in our reports are related with questions regarding various conflicts including Israeli Palestinian, Georgian Russian, Afghanistan issue and position of Russian in future. Secondly U.S. Presidential elections have also got a good coverage. Since last week Senator Obama has not just regained his lead but has also maintained it. As of August 30, he was leading by 8 points in the Gallup Daily Election tracker.

After Iraq war, perceptions about Afghanistan war are also now getting negative. As we have seen previously, publics in various allied countries are increasingly favoring withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan. In last week survey majority of French were in favor of withdrawal of their country troops from Afghanistan. Similarly Americans are also getting pessimistic about war in Afghanistan.

The issue of South Ossetia has raised doubts about Russian position in the international arena. The new Europe itself seems to have become unstable with that campaign. We saw an increase in Polish public favoring U.S. missile defence shield last week. Similarly surveys by various organizations show that Russians are in favor of annexing South Ossetia. But on the other hand some publics still view Russians favorably in East Europe. Belarusian’s see Russia as friend as U.S. as foe. On the other hand respondents in Britain think the world should fear Russia.

The survey of Palestenians by AWARD shows that Hamas support in public square is on decline. Similar were the findings of An-Najah university survey two months ago. Support for PM Haniyah has declined while for Salman Fayyad and Abbas has increased. Similarly the voting intent also shows the same trend in favor of Fateh.

Economic issues

Negative economic perceptions are prevailing in U.S. for the last eight months. An important survey by worldpublicopinion.org shows that the conventional wisdom about Muslims attitude towards globalization being negative is no more true. the survey of six

364 predominant Muslim countries show that Muslims are very supportive of globalization and its various aspects, including impact on their economies and trade in general. Moreover their views on globalization and its impact on environment and labor conditions are also in tone with the overall views in most of the countries. Publics view globalization positively and want environmental and labor standards to be followed.

Social issues

Along with environmental issues health care issues are also gaining momentum. In the last two weeks we have seen that health care have become an important issue to decide the voting preferences in U.S. and Canada.

Summary of The Report

Middle East

Hamas popularity is on decline

The AWARD an affiliate of IRI, finds that Hamas popularity is in decline. The survey shows that intent to vote for Hamas, and Haniyah’s government ratings have declined while on the other hand intents to vote for Fateh, and favorable ratings of Abbas and Salman Fayad has increased.

August 28, 2008

Israelis Would Back Kadima Led by Livni

Adults in Israel would be more likely to support the governing Kadima if the party were headed by foreign minister Tzipi Livni, according to a poll by Dialog published in Haaretz. A prospective tally of seats shows that Kadima and the opposition Likud party would each get 36 seats in the legislature if Livni were Kadima’s leader.

August 27, 2008

Two State Solution is Best for Israelis

The vast majority of people in Israel think that the best solution to the ongoing conflict with the Palestinians is to establish a separate Palestinian state alongside Israel, according to a poll by Market Watch. 74 per cent of respondents share this view, while 14 per cent think the best way to solve the problem is by creating a bi-national state including both Israelis and Palestinians. August 26, 2008

365 West Europe

French Majority Would Leave Afghanistan

Most people in France want to withdraw the country’s soldiers from Afghanistan, according to a poll by CSA published in Le Parisien. 55 per cent of respondents support a troop pull-out, while 36 per cent say the French soldiers should stay put. August 28, 2008

Germans Object to Georgia Entering NATO

Many people in Germany oppose the prospect of Georgia becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), according to a poll by Infratest- Dimap released by ARD. 58 per cent of respondents are against Georgia’s NATO membership, while 26 per cent are in favour.

August 27, 2008

West Should Fear Russia, Say Britons

Many people in Britain think Western nations should pay close attention to Russia, according to a poll by YouGov. 48 per cent of respondents say the West should fear the military power of Russia.

August 25, 2008

East Europe

Russia Friend, U.S. Foe for Belarusians

The vast majority of people in Belarus count on Russia as their country’s greatest friend, according to a poll by Bashkirova & Partners. 82.1 per cent of respondents regard Russia as a friend or ally, followed by Ukraine with 35.3 per cent, and China with 24.3 per cent.

August 30, 2008

Russians Want to Annex South Ossetia

The vast majority of people in Russia want to change the current status of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia, according to a poll by the Yuri Levada Analytical Center. 46 per cent of respondents want South Ossetia to become a part of Russia, while 34 per cent think the region should become fully independent. August 27, 2008

366

North America

No Doubt Economy is Bad, Say Americans

Three-in-four people in the United States acknowledge that their country’s economy is facing major challenges, according to a poll by Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN. 75 per cent of respondents rate the economic conditions in the country as poor, up 16 points since January. August 28, 2008

Afghanistan War Not Going Well, Say Americans

Many more adults in the United States are now under the impression that the war on terror is on the wrong track, according to a poll by CBS News and the New York Times. 58 per cent of respondents say things are not going well for the U.S. in Afghanistan, the war’s main battleground, up 44 points since March 2003. August 26, 2008

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Lead 49% to 41%

Barack Obama maintains an eight percentage point lead over John McCain when registered voters nationwide are asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election if it were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking figures.

August 30, 2008

Health Care is Key Issue for Canadian Voters

The country’s medical services remain a key concern for Canadians, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies released by the Toronto Star. 79 per cent of respondents say health care will be very important when they decide which party to support in the next federal election.

September 02, 2008

South America

Fewer Mexicans Trust Their Democratic System

People in Mexico have grown uneasy about the way democracy works in their country, according to a poll by Reforma. 54 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with the democratic system, up 10 points since February 2007. August 31, 2008

367 East Asia

Malaysians Think Anwar is Innocent

The majority of people in Malaysia think allegations of sexual misconduct against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim are false, according to a poll by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research. 55 per cent of respondents share this view, while 11 per cent think the charges are true.

August 30, 2008

Global Polls

Muslims Positive About Globalization, Trade

A new poll by worldpublicopinion.org of six predominant Muslim countries denies the conventional wisdom that Muslim societies are against globalization. The survey shows that Muslims are positive about various aspect of globalization.

August 27, 2008

Middle East

Hamas popularity is on decline

Results of an Opinion Poll on Hamas and the Truce, the Government, Security Campaigns, The Peace Process and Elections. Dated: 28 August, 2008

Field work: 6-8 August 2008

Sample Size: 1200 Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza Margin of error: + 3

This poll took place during the final days of fighting between the Executive Force of the Hamas-led government and the Helles clan in Gaza. The violence followed a number of explosions that took place in various locations in Gaza City, leading to the killing of 6 Palestinians, most of them from Hamas’ military wing. The subsequent fighting led to the killing of 11 Palestinians, among them were two Hamas fighters and eight members of the Helles clan. AWRAD’s field work had to be postponed during the early period of

368 heavy fighting, as the movement in Gaza was highly restricted by Hamas. Some areas selected to be included in the poll were out of reach and dangerous. The reality on the ground in Gaza led to shifts in public opinion towards Hamas and Fateh at the same time, confirming the fact that both factions are losing in Gaza, most especially Hamas.

Moreover, months of discussions and negotiations have produced no visible progress on key issues of the conflict such as Jerusalem, refugees and borders. Furthermore, no signs of hope have followed the announcement of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s resignation.

This poll shows the following significant findings and trends:

President Abbas enjoys a 63% approval rate, 18 points higher than Haniya. The popularity of Haniya and Hamas in both the West Bank and Gaza declined immediately after the Helles neighborhood fighting. The positive evaluation of Haniya‘s government decreased from 55% to 46% The positive evaluation of the Fayyad government increased from 46% to 55%. Intent of voting for Fateh increased from 47% to 53%; intent of voting for Hamas decreased from 37% to 29%. 35% believe that Fateh is more capable in leading the Palestinian society; 17% believe that Hamas is more capable. Abbas, Fayyad, Marwan Bargouthi or Mustafa Bargouthi could defeat Haniya in a presidential election. 93% of Gazans say that economic conditions in the Strip have worsened or have not improved. 57% of Gazans feel that the security situation has deteriorated or stayed the same. 59% of West Bank respondents believe that the security agencies are fighting crime more effectively now than before. 65% say that they are witnessing less car theft now than before. 74% support carrying out a legislative election now. 92% experience no improvement in the quality of their lives after the Annapolis Meeting. 64% believe that the current negotiations will not lead to a Palestinian state.

369 Still, 63% support the continuation of negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis. 61% believe that Hamas should continue to commit to the truce. 52% support that Hamas prevents rockets attacks, while 42% are opposed.

Israelis Would Back Kadima Led by Livni

August 27, 2008

Labour is third with 13 mandates, followed by Israel Our Home and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 10 seats each, and Yahadut Hatorah with seven mandates.

In a different scenario, with transportation minister Shaul Mofaz as Kadima’s leader, Likud would be first with 30 mandates, followed by Kadima with 22 seats, Labour with 13 mandates, Israel Our Home and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 11 seats each, and Yahadut Hatorah with seven mandates.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by current head of government Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

In May, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to prime minister Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Moshe Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime, but now Olmert is under investigation.

On Aug. 25, Mofaz criticized Livni for supporting the government’s release of 200 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, saying, "To my sorrow, foreign minister Livni

370 pushed the idea of freeing more terrorists. Freeing terrorists at the same time kidnapped IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] soldier Gilad Shalit is not with us leaves me with a difficult feeling. Making a bad decision is worse than deciding nothing, and we have freed 700 prisoners this year without anything in return."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election (Results presented in seats)

Kadima Kadima w/ Livni w/ Mofaz

Likud (Consolidation) 28 30

Kadima (Forward) 28 22

Labour 12 13

Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) 10 11

International Organization of 10 11 Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas)

Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism) 7 7

Together (Yachad) 5 6

National Union (Ikhud) and 5 5 Mafdal (National Religious Party)

Social Justice (Tzedek Hevrati) 2 2

Gil (Retired People’s Party) 2 2

Arab parties 11 11

Source: Dialog / Haaretz Methodology: Interviews with 402 Israeli adults, conducted on Aug. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.

Two State Solution is Best for Israelis

August 26, 2008

371 think the best way to solve the problem is by creating a bi-national state including both Israelis and Palestinians.

However, 62 per cent of respondents do not believe it will be possible to reach a final agreement with the Palestinians.

Around 750,000 Palestinians fled or were forced to leave their territory during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. The "right of return"—under which Palestinians aim to re-occupy their homes in Israel—has always been a questionable point in peace negotiations. Hundreds of thousands of refugees from the war and their descendants still live in shantytown camps run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), next to Gaza cities and towns.

During the six-day war in 1967, Israel gained control of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, eastern Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is currently heading the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank, endorsed by Israel and most of the Western international community. Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas has become the de-facto leader in the Gaza Strip.

In November 2007, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by United States president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

On Aug. 21, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni—who is also a candidate to succeed Olmert this fall—warned that international pressure to reach a peace deal with the Palestinians by the end of this year could have negative consequences, saying, "I believe we need to learn from past experience. Any attempt to try and bridge gaps that maybe it’s

372 premature to bridge because of the international pressure (...) can lead to clashes, this can lead to misunderstandings and to violence."

Polling Data

Which situation do you view as preferable?

The establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, meaning two states for 74% two peoples

The establishment of a bi-national state, meaning one state for two peoples 14%

Neither 9%

Undecided 3%

Do you or do you not believe a permanent status agreement can be reached with the Palestinians to end the conflict?

Believe 34%

Don’t believe 62%

Undecided 4%

Source: Market Watch Methodology: Interviews with 600 Israelis, conducted on Jul. 25, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

West Europe

French Majority Would Leave Afghanistan

August 28, 2008

France committed troops to the war on terrorism in Afghanistan. At least 936 soldiers— including 22 French—have died in the conflict, either in support of the United States-led

373 Operation Enduring Freedom or as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In May 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy, candidate for the centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and former interior minister, won the presidential run-off with 53.06 per cent of the vote. Sarkozy appointed François Fillon—who had been his adviser and presidential campaign leader—as prime minister.

On Aug. 18, 10 French soldiers serving in Afghanistan were killed in an ambush by Taliban fighters. French lawmakers are due to debate the future of the Afghan mission on Sept. 22.

On Aug. 24, Fillon said he would support a vote in the legislature on whether the troops should be brought back home. The UMP holds majorities in both houses, so the mission would likely remain unchanged.

On Aug. 26, Sarkozy said he does not support a withdrawal, adding, "There should be no mistake, they are arming terrorists over there and we are not safe from terrorism."

Polling Data

As you may know, France has deployed soldiers to Afghanistan. Which of these two choices would you prefer?

Keeping the troops in Afghanistan 36%

Withdrawing the troops from Afghanistan 55%

No answer 9%

Source: CSA / Le Parisien Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,008 French adults, conducted on Aug. 20, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Germans Object to Georgia Entering NATO

August 27, 2008

Many people in Germany oppose the prospect of Georgia becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), according to a poll by Infratest-Dimap released by ARD. 58 per cent of respondents are against Georgia’s NATO membership, while 26 per cent are in favour.

NATO was originally formed in 1949 as an agreement of collaboration designed to prevent a possible attack from the Soviet Union on North America or Western Europe during the Cold War. In March 2004, NATO added seven more nations, six of which

374 were once members of the Warsaw Pact—a military alliance of Eastern European Soviet countries.

Russia has now pulled out most of its troops from central and Western Georgia. Russian soldiers are still present in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Aug. 17, German chancellor Angela Merkel discussed Georgia’s potential accession to NATO, saying, "I think that a clear political statement is once again very important in this situation: Georgia is a free and independent country, and every free and independent country can decide together with the members of NATO when and how it joins NATO. In December, there will be an initial assessment of the situation, and we are clearly on track for a [Georgia] NATO membership."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose Georgia’s accession into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)?

Support 26%

Oppose 58%

Not sure 16%

Source: Infratest-Dimap / ARD Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 German adults, conducted on Aug. 19 and Aug. 20, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

375 West Should Fear Russia, Say Britons

August 25, 2008

Many people in Britain think Western nations should pay close attention to Russia, according to a poll by YouGov. 48 per cent of respondents say the West should fear the military power of Russia.

Additionally, 57 per cent of respondents think most countries were caught off guard by the recent conflict between Georgia and Russia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. In light of this conflict, 37 per cent of respondents think Russia is trying to bring back the Soviet Union of the Cold War era, and 32 per cent think British prime minister Gordon Brown should have done more to help the Georgians.

On Aug. 12, Brown discussed a ceasefire proposal presented by international leaders, saying, "There must now be talks that will resolve this once and for all. We cannot continue with the situation where hostilities are likely. We must bring them to an end by having a permanent solution to this problem."

Polling Data

From what you know about events in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia in recent days, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Agree Disagree Neither Unsure

Gordon Brown and other Western leaders should 32% 27% 15% 26% have done more to help the Georgians

Britain and other Western governments were 57% 11% 9% 23% caught napping by Russia’s actions in Georgia

376 Russia is trying to re-create the old, cold war 37% 24% 9% 30% Soviet Union

The West should fear the military power of 48% 24% 11% 17% Russia

Source: YouGov Methodology: Online interviews with 1,745 British voters, conducted on Aug. 14 and Aug. 15, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

East Europe

Russia Friend, U.S. Foe for Belarusians

August 30, 2008

Conversely, 54.4 per cent of respondents see the United States as unfriendly or hostile towards Belarus, followed by Poland, Latvia and Britain.

In March 2006, Lukashenko won the presidential election with 82.6 per cent of the vote. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said the ballot "did not meet the required international standards for free and fair elections" and was "severely flawed due to arbitrary use of state power and restrictions to basic rights."

On Aug. 21, Russia’s ambassador to Belarus Aleksandr Surikov confirmed that Lukashenko and new Russian president Dmitry Medvedev recently discussed to possibility of implementing the common currency sooner than planned, saying, "I read attentively about the meeting between Medvedev and Lukashenko, it is written clearly— taking into consideration the current events and difficult situation in economy and policy, we should look more seriously at our mutual relations, which should become closer."

Polling Data

377 Which of the following foreign nations would you regard as Belarus’ friends or allies? (Several answers allowed)

Russia 82.1%

Ukraine 35.3%

China 24.3%

Poland 11.1%

Armenia 5.4%

Moldova 5.1%

Others 31.8%

None 2.3%

Hard to say 9.0%

Which of the following foreign nations do you consider unfriendly or even hostile to Belarus? (Several answers allowed)

United States 54.4%

Poland 7.3%

Latvia 5.7%

Britain 5.3%

Others 27.8%

None 15.7%

Hard to say 22.5%

Source: Bashkirova & Partners Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Belarusian adults, conducted from Jul. 12 to Jul. 30, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Russians Want to Annex South Ossetia

August 27, 2008

The vast majority of people in Russia want to change the current status of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia, according to a poll by the Yuri Levada Analytical

378 Center. 46 per cent of respondents want South Ossetia to become a part of Russia, while 34 per cent think the region should become fully independent.

Russia has now pulled out most of its troops from central and Western Georgia. Russian soldiers are still present in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Aug. 25, Russian lawmakers unanimously passed a resolution asking Russian president Dmitry Medvedev to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent nations. Sergei Mironov—speaker of the upper house Russian Federation Council— declared: "Today it is clear that Georgian-South-Ossetian and Georgian-Abkhazian relations cannot be returned to their former state. (...) The peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have the right to get independence."

Polling Data

What do you think should happen to South Ossetia?

Remain in the composition of Georgia 4%

Become part of Russia 46%

Become an independent state 34%

Hard to answer 16%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Aug. 9 and Aug. 10, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

379

North America

No Doubt Economy is Bad, Say Americans

August 28, 2008

George W. Bush—a Republican—earned a second four-year term in the November 2004 presidential election. The next presidential election will take place on Nov. 4.

Since last year, defaults on so-called subprime mortgages—credit given to high-risk borrowers—have caused volatility in domestic and financial markets and raised concerns that the U.S. economy could fall into a recession.

Earlier this month, Joshua Shapiro, chief economist at New York’s Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., said that production of manufactured goods in the U.S. is yet to be hit by greater economic challenges, adding, "An increasingly strained consumer, deepening woes for the housing sector and a desire to pare inventories will all weigh on manufacturing output."

Polling Data

How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today—as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?

Aug. 2008 Jan. 2008 Dec. 2007

Very good 4% 4% 6%

Somewhat good 21% 36% 40%

Somewhat poor 32% 40% 33%

Very poor 43% 19% 21%

No opinion -- -- 1%

380 Source: Opinion Research Corporation / CNN Methodology: Interviews with 497 American adults, conducted on Aug. 23, to Aug. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Afghanistan War Not Going Well, Say Americans

August 26, 2008

At least 934 soldiers—including 574 Americans—have died in the war on terrorism, either in support of the U.S.-led Operation Enduring Freedom or as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

On Aug. 21, the New York Times called in an editorial for a review of the war on terror strategy, saying, "Unless the United States, NATO and its central Asian allies move quickly, they could lose this war. The following steps need to be taken in the coming weeks. Washington must finally make clear to Pakistan’s leaders the mortal threat they face. The Army must turn its attention from India to the fight against the Taliban. Civilian leaders must realize that there can be no separate peace with the extremists. Sending American troops or warplanes into Pakistani territory will only feed anti- American furies. That should be the job of Pakistan’s army, with intelligence help and carefully monitored financial support from the United States."

Polling Data

What is your impression of how the war in Afghanistan is going for the United States right now: very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly?

Aug. 2008 Mar. 2003

Very Well 3% 30%

Somewhat Well 25% 46%

381 Somewhat Badly 40% 11%

Very Badly 18% 3%

Unsure 14% 10%

Source: CBS News / New York Times Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,012 American adults, conducted from Aug. 15 to Aug. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

August 30, 2008

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Lead 49% to 41%

Obama support at high-water mark

With 49% of the vote, Obama has tied his high for the campaign to date. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) He has received a boost in the polls coming out of the Democratic Party's convention this week, at which he became the first African-American to be nominated as the presidential candidate of a major political party.

382 The current results are based on Aug. 27-29 interviewing, which includes two nights of polling during the convention and one post-convention night on Friday. The Friday interviewing was conducted in an unusual political environment -- the first conducted fully after Obama's well-regarded acceptance speech and McCain's surprise announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Each event in isolation has usually been associated with increased candidate support for the relevant party. On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.

Now the focus shifts to the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., beginning Monday, and McCain hopes for a bounce similar to what Obama has enjoyed the past few days. -- Jeff Jones

(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Aug.27-29, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,709 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

383 In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Health Care is Key Issue for Canadian Voters

September 02, 2008

The economy is next on the list of very important issues with 75 per cent, followed by he environment with 61 per cent, poverty with 53 per cent, the war in Afghanistan with 39 per cent, the fiscal imbalance with 37 per cent, funding and infrastructure for cities with 35 per cent, child care with 32 per cent, and Canada-U.S. relations with 30 per cent.

The next federal election in Canada is scheduled for October 2009, but there is growing speculation that a snap ballot would take place on Oct. 14.

In Canada, the universality criterion establishes that all residents of a province or territory must be entitled to the insured, public-run health services provided by their provincial or territorial health care insurance plan on uniform terms and conditions.

Earlier this month, Canadian Medical Association (CMA) president discussed the state of the country’s health care system, saying, "We have to think about the patient and not be dogmatic about it. And that’s the problem in Canada. We’re very dogmatic about public and private, and you know this public and private system exists everywhere in the world except three countries: Canada, Cuba and North Korea."

Polling Data

Below is a list of nine issues. Please tell us whether each of these issues will be very important, moderately important, not too important, or not important at all when you decide which party to support in the next federal election.

384 Not Very Moderately Not too important at important important important all

Health care 79% 16% 2% 0%

The economy 75% 21% 1% 0%

The environment 61% 27% 6% 2%

Poverty 53% 30% 11% 3%

War in Afghanistan 39% 28% 16% 13%

Fiscal Imbalance 37% 40% 13% 4%

Funding and 35% 44% 16% 2% infrastructure for cities

Child care 32% 36% 21% 7%

Canada-U.S. Relations 30% 45% 18% 3%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies / Toronto Star Methodology: Online interviews with 1,012 Canadian adults, conducted on Aug. 27 and Aug. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

South America

Fewer Mexicans Trust Their Democratic System

August 31, 2008

Allegations of fraud surfaced during and after the 1988 Mexican presidential election, when the government blamed the breakdown of a computer system for unexpected delays in the distribution of results. In the end, Carlos Salinas de Gortari—the nominee for the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)—was declared the winner with 50.7 per cent of the vote, defeating Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas of the National Democratic Front (FDN).

The Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) was established in 1990 as an autonomous entity responsible for organizing federal elections in Mexico. Previously, the interior secretariat had been in charge of all election-related activities.

385 The PRI ruled Mexico for 71 consecutive years, losing its first presidential election in July 2000 with candidate Francisco Labastida. Vicente Fox of the PAN won a six-year term with 42.5 per cent of the vote.

Earlier this month, Mexico was shaken by the death of Fernando Martí, the 14-year-old son of well-known business man Alejandro Martí, who had been kidnapped in June. Investigators have suggested that the perpetrators were police officers.

On Aug. 27, Raúl Fierro, a co-worker of Alejandro Martí, referred to the boy’s death in relation to the state of the country’s democracy, saying, "In this first stage, what democracy has brought is just an exchange of power among political parties. (...) Nothing has been done, and we cannot remain silent any longer."

Polling Data

Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way democracy works in Mexico?

Aug. Aug. 2008 Feb. 2007 2006

Satisfied 35% 45% 48%

Dissatisfied 54% 44% 42%

No opinion 11% 11% 10%

Source: Reforma Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,515 Mexican adults, conducted on Aug. 16 and Aug. 17, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

East Asia

Malaysians Think Anwar is Innocent

August 30, 2008

386 The ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO)—the biggest party in a coalition of 12 political factions known as the National Front (BN)—has formed the government after every election since the Asian country attained its independence from Britain in 1957.

Abdullah Ahmad Badawi took over as prime minister in October 2003, after the retirement of Mahathir Mohamad, who served for more than 22 years. In the March 2004 election, the National Front secured 198 of the 219 seats in the House of Representatives. Abdullah was sworn in as head of government with the biggest majority in three decades.

In 1999, Anwar—who served as deputy prime minister and finance minister during the Mahathir administration—was sentenced to jail on charges of sodomy and corruption. Anwar was regarded as Mahathir’s natural successor but had become a critic of the administration. Many Malaysians saw his conviction as politically-motivated.

In 2004, the Federal Court reversed Anwar’s conviction for sodomy and he was released from prison. Anwar’s wife, Azizah Ismail, formed the National Justice Party (PKN) in 1999. Anwar is now the leader of a coalition of opposition parties.

Last month, Anwar was arrested again, this time over allegations that he had "illegal sex" with a male aide. Homosexual sex is defined by Malaysian law as "carnal intercourse against the order of nature." Anwar pleaded not guilty, and has been released on bail. He is running for a seat in a legislative by-election next week.

On Aug. 22, Anwar decried the government’s tactics, saying, "Since the 1999 general election, they have used every means, threat and dirty tactic in the book to ensure they secure the landslide victories. This time, this by-election takes the cake and the prime minister, deputy prime minister, ministers and other BN leaders have jumped on the bandwagon on a free-for-all, no-holds barred smear campaign against me."

Polling Data

Do you believe in the allegations of sexual misconduct against Anwar Ibrahim?

Believe 11%

Do not believe 55%

Not sure / No reply 34%

387 Source: Merdeka Center for Opinion Research Methodology: Telephone Interviews with 1,030 Malaysian voters, conducted Jul. 4 to Jul. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Global Polls

Muslims Positive About Globalization, Trade

August 27, 2008

Contrary to the common assumption that Muslims view globalization as a threat to their society, a new poll of Muslim countries finds that globalization is generally viewed positively. The poll was conducted by WorldPublicOpinion.org in six nations with predominantly Muslim populations in different regions of the world including Egypt, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Indonesia, and the Palestinian Territories, plus the Muslim population of Nigeria.

Asked about "globalization, especially the increasing connections of our economy with others around the world," majorities in six of the seven nations polled say that it is "mostly good" for their country. Approval is highest among Egyptians and Nigerian Muslims (79% and 78% saying mostly good, respectively). Sixty-three percent of Azerbaijanis, 61 percent of both Iranians and Indonesians, and 58 percent of Palestinians see globalization as mostly good. While support in Turkey does not reach a majority, a plurality still calls globalization mostly good (39% to 28%). On average across all seven publics, 63 percent say that globalization is good for their own countries. Only 25 percent think it is mostly bad.

The poll of 5,216 respondents was conducted January 12 - February 23, 20081 by WorldPublicOpinion.org, a collaborative research project involving research centers from around the world and managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. Not all questions were asked in every country. Margins of error range from +/- 3.2 to 4.1 percent.

388 The poll finds that most respondents also view international trade as good for their countries and themselves. At the same time, many are concerned about trade's effects on workers and the environment. However most express interest in addressing these effects, not through protectionism but through an international, cooperative effort integrating labor and environmental standards into agreements on international trade.

Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org comments, "These findings run counter to the widespread assumption that people in the Muslim world are anxious and hostile about the prospect of integration into the global economy."

International Trade

Asked whether international trade is good or bad for their country's economy, majorities in five of six nations polled say that it is good. Similar to answers on globalization, on average 64 percent think international trade is good for their country's economy, while 29 percent say it is bad. However individual nations vary. While Turks only have a plurality positive about globalization, they have a strong majority (72%) positive about trade. While Egyptians and Nigerian Muslims are the most positive about globalization, they are the most skeptical about trade--a bare plurality of Nigerians give it a positive rating (51% to 46%) while Egyptians are evenly divided. The most enthusiastic public is that of Azerbaijan, where 85 percent are positive. Palestinians and Indonesians are also quite positive (70% and 60% say mostly good).

Majorities or pluralities in five of six nations see international trade as good for their countries' companies, Nigerian Muslims being the only exception (though the Nigerian population as a whole is positive). Eighty percent of Azerbaijanis, 70 percent of Turks, 67 percent of Palestinians, and 52 percent of Egyptians see their national companies as benefiting from international trade. Among Indonesians a 49-percent plurality agreed, with 39 percent seeing trade's effects as bad. Among Nigerian Muslims, though, 59 percent see trade as adversely affecting Nigerian companies, and only 37 percent think the effects are good. Overall, on average 59 percent see trade as beneficial to their respective countries' companies.

Majorities in every population polled think trade is good for consumers, on average 63 percent. On this Nigerian Muslims lead the way, with 77 percent positive, followed by Azerbaijanis (67%), Turks (62%), Indonesians (59%), Palestinians (57%), and Egyptians (54%). Those who see trade as hurting consumers were most numerous in Egypt (46%) and Indonesia (32%).

389 Most think international trade is also good for their own standard of living--on average 56 percent hold this view, with 30 percent saying their standard of living is hurt by trade. The exception is Egypt where 56 percent say it is bad for their standard of living. Elsewhere, Azerbaijanis, Palestinians, and Turks are the most positive, at 65, 62, and 61 percent respectively. Fifty-four percent of Nigerian Muslims and 51 percent of Indonesians agree.

The reservations expressed by Egyptians and Nigerian Muslims may be related to the economic conditions in their country, where economic booms in some sectors, often associated with greater trade, have been matched with growing inequality. In Egypt, where ambitious economic reforms launched in 2004 have contributed to growth rates of around 7 percent, poverty has nonetheless increased over the past three years. In Nigeria, oil industry practices have been a focus of complaints and opposition for decades, on both economic and environmental grounds.

Trade and Labor

Views of the effect of international trade on workers is more mixed. While trade is widely seen as positive for creating jobs, its effect on job security for workers produces more divided responses. On average, a 61-percent majority thinks international trade is good for creating jobs in their own countries (29% bad), while a 48-percent plurality think international trade is good for job security (37% bad).

Again Azerbaijanis and Turks are the most positive. Seventy-seven percent of Azerbaijanis see job creation, and 57 percent see job security, as benefiting from international trade--as did 66 and 62 percent of Turks, respectively. Among the Palestinians, 62 percent think international trade aids job creation, and 57 percent think it aids job security. In Indonesia, a 55-percent majority says trade helps to create jobs, but a lesser 47-percent plurality thinks trade helps job security. On both points 37 percent disagree.

Egyptians are negative by a margin of almost two to one about trade's impact on job creation and security: Sixty-four percent think that trade is bad for job creation and 65 percent think it is bad for job security.

Nigerian Muslims have divergent responses to the two questions. Seventy-two percent think trade is good for job creation, while 64 percent think it is bad for job security. These responses reflect the fact that international trade can indeed stimulate the creation of new jobs while also engendering rapid changes that undermine job security.

Trade and the Environment

Out of all the effects posed to respondents, international trade's effect on the environment elicited the most negative views from respondents. On average across the six populations opinion is divided, with 44 percent saying it has a bad effect and 42 percent saying it has a good effect on the environment.

390 Views vary considerably on this issue between nations. Majorities in three nations see trade's environmental effects as negative--most strongly among Egyptians (63%), Nigerian Muslims (58%), and Indonesians (56%). In two other nations majorities take a positive view--Turkey (58%) and the Palestinian Territories (53%). In Azerbaijan, a 42- percent plurality see trade's environmental effects as good while 33 percent see them as bad.

Environmental and Labor Standards in Trade Agreements

Some propose requiring minimum environmental standards in trade agreements as a way to mitigate the potentially negative impact of trade on the environment. They argue that this would subvert the potential for companies to seek out countries with the lowest environmental standards and for countries to compete by lowering their standards. Critics say, however, that including environmental standards in trade agreements can hurt developing countries' competitive edge by raising costs and discouraging investment. The leaders of many developing countries oppose requiring such standards.

Even though the predominantly Muslim countries in this poll are considered developing countries, the data show that very large majorities in all five counties polled support incorporating environmental standards into trade agreements. On average 84 percent approve, with no country having less than three in four in support.

Interestingly, the highest majorities come from the two populations that express the most doubts about international trade in general, and the highest level of concern about the impact of trade on the environment. Ninety-three percent of Egyptians and 91 percent of Nigerian Muslims say that trade agreements should include "minimum standards for protection of the environment." Eighty-three percent of Azerbaijanis, 79 percent of Indonesians, and 75 percent of Turks agree.

A concern that runs parallel to international trade's effect on the environment is its effect on labor standards. Here again there is concern that, in an attempt to cut labor costs, multinational companies will seek out--and developing countries will provide--a labor market with low

391 levels of protections for workers. Thus it has been proposed that international trade agreements include labor standards that would require signatory agreements to comply with international labor standards, such as prohibiting child labor and allowing workers to form labor unions. As in the case of environmental standards, critics say that adding labor protections to trade agreements would hurt developing countries by raising costs and discouraging investment.

Although most of the six nations polled are considered to have low-cost labor markets, all publics overwhelmingly support including labor standards in trade agreements. On average 8 in 10 support them, as do at least three in four within each nation. The highest levels of support come from Nigerian Muslims at 89 percent, followed by Indonesians (82%), Azerbaijanis (80%), Egyptians (77%), and Turks (76%).

392 Business and Politics in The Muslim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report Week September 08-14, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: September 16, 2008

Introduction Summary Middle East Palestinians Would Welcome Arab Forces Palestinians Would Vote for Abbas Again Livni Better than Mofaz for Israel’s Kadima West Europe Europeans Not Keen on Turkey’s EU Bid Russia a Dangerous Dictatorship for Britons French Criticize Effects of Globalization We Are Not European Citizens, Say French Germans Fear New Russian Territorial Wars Westerners Slam Their Nations’ Economies North America One Third of Canadians Back Afghan Mission Terrorism Worries Seem to Subside in U.S. Gallup Daily: McCain 48%, Obama 45% Americans Clearly Disheartened with U.S. Congress East Europe Russians Evidently Urge for Better Health Care Ukrainians Concerned Over Russian Incursion West Asia Terrorism, Economy Dual Threats for Pakistanis International Poll: No Consensus On Who Was Behind 9/11

393 Introduction

This week report consists of seventeen surveys. Two are of global significance, six are of regional importance, and nine are of national significance for their respective countries.

Political issues

Race of White House in U.S has become tight between Obama and McCain. McCain has led the race in the last week with a maximum advantage of five points early last week. But now the race is almost tied with a three percentage point favor for McCain.

With the invasion of South Osetia the image of Russia in East and West Europe has suffered a set back. In the last couple of weeks we have seen that more Europeans are becoming dubious about Russian role in the region. French, Germans, Britain’s, Ukrainians and Polish respondents have shown their apprehension about the Russian designs.

A recent survey of Western European nations on the Turkey EU bid shows that Europeans are not ready to welcome Turkey in the organization. More than two third majorities are against Turkey inclusion in to the body in France, Germany, Belgium and Netherlands. The opposition is comparatively low but still more than half of respondents in Britain, and Italy is also against Turkey aspirations. Only in Spain the public is divided on the question.

A Gallup USA survey shows that terrorism and economy are seen as greatest concern in Pakistan. As compared to 2007 today more Pakistanis say that government is not doing enough to combat terrorism. These feelings are especially high in N-W.F.P and Sind. Similarly Pakistanis are also very pessimistic about the economic conditions in the country. New government is facing both of these huge tasks and there are lot of public expectation in this regard.

Palestinians are continuing their support for Fatah. In a recent survey on the question of Presidency Palestinians voted in favor of Abbas as compared to Ismail Haniyeh. But the previous surveys also show that Marvan Bourgoti is preferred over Abbas. A survey shows that Palestinians will welcome Arab forces as proposed in Egypt for the purposes of creating an environment of reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah in Gaza strip. This also shows us their preference of Arab troops over NATO or EU forces.

A worldpublicopinion.org survey regarding 9/11 shows that in just 9 out of 17 surveyed countries majorities see Al Qaeda behind this tragic event. The second mostly cited perpetrator is U.S itself. But on the whole poll shows that there is no consensus across the world on this issue.

394 Economic Issues

In a survey in France respondents were asked to evaluate the effects of globalization. The findings show a quite negative view of globalization. They see it as a threat to jobs and environment in the country. Moreover they feel that globalization is empowering the business class and more than half say it is not good for them personally.

The general trend regarding negative perceptions about economy is quite evident in West European nations with a Harris interactive survey. Overwhelming majorities in Great Britain, France, Italy and Spain say that economy is getting worse. The least figure in this regard is in German 58%.

Summary

Middle East

Palestinians Would Welcome Arab Forces

Most residents of the Palestinian Territories would support a proposal by the Egyptian government to send Arab forces to the Gaza Strip, according to a poll by Near East Consulting. 56 per cent of respondents favour the idea in order to support the Arab efforts towards reconciling Hamas and Fatah. September 11, 2008

Palestinians Would Vote for Abbas Again

Most residents of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank would vote for Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas in the next presidential election, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 53 per cent of respondents would vote for Abbas, down six points since September 2007. September 05, 2008

Livni Better than Mofaz for Israel’s Kadima

The governing Kadima party of Israel would fare better in the next election with foreign minister Tzipi Livni as its leader, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows that a Livni-led Kadima would garner 23 seats in the next ballot, second to Likud with 31 mandates. September 07, 2008

West Europe

Europeans Not Keen on Turkey’s EU Bid

395 A majority of residents of seven European Union (EU) member nations are against Turkey’s potential accession to the continental group, according to a poll by Ifop published in Valeurs Actuelles. At least 67 per cent of respondents in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France oppose Turkey’s bid to join the EU. September 09, 2008

Russia a Dangerous Dictatorship for Britons

Most people in Britain regard Russia as a dictatorship in disguise, according to a poll by YouGov published in Daily Telegraph. 56 per cent of respondents think that, although Russia presents itself as a democracy, it is in reality a virtual dictatorship, with severe restrictions on press freedom and rigged elections. September 09, 2008

French Criticize Effects of Globalization

Many people in France believe globalization has negatively affected their country, according to a poll by TNS Sofres released by Les Gracques and Le Nouvel Observateur. 69 per cent of respondents say that globalization increases environmental problems in the planet, and 68 per cent believe it threatens jobs in France. September 08, 2008

We Are Not European Citizens, Say French

The majority of people in France still do not consider themselves as European citizens, according to a poll by TNS Sofres and CIDEM. 38 per cent of respondents think of themselves as citizens of Europe—up nine points since December 2001—while 62 per cent do not.

September 07, 2008

Germans Fear New Russian Territorial Wars

Most people in Germany think a recent conflict between Russia and Georgia over two Georgian separatist regions could be the first in a string of similar events, according to a poll by Emnid released by N24. 60 per cent of respondents think Russia could stake further territorial claims along its borders in the near future, while 34 per cent disagree.

September 07, 2008

Westerners Slam Their Nations’ Economies

396 An overwhelming proportion of people in five European countries and the United States agree that their countries’ economies are in bad shape, according to a poll by Harris Interactive published in the Financial Times. More than 80 per cent of respondents in Britain, France, Italy, Spain and the U.S. say that the economy in their own nation has worsened in the past year. In Germany, 58 per cent of respondents feel the same way.

September 05, 2008

North America

One Third of Canadians Back Afghan Mission

Canadian adults continue to disagree with the decision to prolong the country’s mandate in Afghanistan until 2011, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 34 per cent of respondents agree with the extension, while 59 per cent disagree. September 14, 2008

Terrorism Worries Seem to Subside in U.S.

Fewer Americans are greatly concerned about the possibility of an attack on their soil, according to a poll by TNS released by ABC and the Washington Post. 18 per cent of respondents say they are worried "a great deal" about the possibility of more major terrorist attacks in the United States, down 11 points in two years. September 14, 2008

Gallup Daily: McCain 48%, Obama 45%

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results for Sept. 9-11 show a slight, but not statistically significant, three percentage point advantage for John McCain over Barack Obama among registered voters, 48% to 45%.

September 12, 2008

Americans Clearly Disheartened with U.S. Congress

Few adults in the United States hold a positive opinion of their federal lawmakers, according to a review of five recent public opinion polls. In a survey by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News, only 20 per cent of respondents approve of the job Congress is doing.

September 02, 2008

East Europe

Russians Evidently Urge for Better Health Care

397 Most people in Russia have a poor opinion of their medical services, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 62 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with the public health care system, and an additional 73 per cent think it is not possible to get good medical care in Russia.

September 02, 2008

Ukrainians Concerned Over Russian Incursion

Many people in Ukraine think their country could face a conflict with Russia in the near future, according to a poll by the Institute for Strategic Studies. 48.5 per cent of respondents believe Ukraine could live a situation similar to the one Georgia went through recently, while 40.4 per cent disagree.

September 08, 2008

West Asia

Terrorism, Economy Dual Threats for Pakistanis

A Gallup USA poll finds that more Pakistanis are now feeling that the government is not doing enough to fight terrorism in the country. Similarly seven in ten say the economic conditions in the country are not good.

September 12, 2008

Global Poll

International Poll: No Consensus On Who Was Behind 9/11

A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 17 nations finds that majorities in only nine of them believe that al Qaeda was behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States.

September 10, 2008

Middle East

Palestinians Would Welcome Arab Forces

September 11, 2008

398 Fatah candidate Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

In November 2007, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by U.S. president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

The Islamic Jihad organization began to launch Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza almost daily since Hamas took control of the territory. Israel holds Hamas responsible for the attacks for allowing the Islamic Jihad and other groups to act against Israel. In January, Israel completely sealed off its borders with the Gaza Strip and launched military operations in Gaza.

Egyptian foreign minister Ahmad Abueghiet recently proposed that Arab troops be sent to Gaza as part of an effort to bring Hamas and Fatah—and hence Gaza and the West Bank—together. On Sept. 5, Haniyeh rejected the idea, saying, "Gaza needs an effective Arab role, not Arab troops. This support is needed to lift the Israeli siege and defy the American-Israeli arrogance."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose the Egyptian proposal of sending Arab forces to the Gaza Strip to support the Arab efforts towards reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah?

Support 56%

399 Oppose 44%

Source: Near East Consulting Methodology: Telephone interviews with 820 Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, conducted from Aug. 29 to Aug. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.

Palestinians Would Vote for Abbas Again

September 05, 2008

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is second with 39 per cent, up three points in a year.

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

In November 2007, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by U.S. president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

400 In May, Israeli and Palestinian delegates began to negotiate a ceasefire in Egypt. On Jun. 17, Egypt announced that a "calm agreement" had been reached between Israel and Hamas. The deal took effect on Jun. 19, and entails Gaza’s Hamas rulers halting rocket and mortar fire on Israeli border communities, while Israel is to increase the flow of goods into Gaza. The fragile truce is still in place.

On Sept. 3, Abbas referred to the Egyptian government’s efforts to foster peace between Israelis and Palestinians, declaring, "Egypt is carrying out a very unique mission related to inviting various Palestinian factions for dialogue. (...) [After talks in September], the results of the dialogue would be sent to the Arab League."

Polling Data

If a presidential election were to take place today, and Mahmoud Abbas were nominated by Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh were nominated by Hamas, who would you vote for?

Aug. 2008 Sept. 2007

Mahmoud Abbas 53% 59%

Ismail Haniyeh 39% 36%

Not sure 8% 5%

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,270 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Aug. 28 to Aug. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Livni Better than Mofaz for Israel’s Kadima

September 07, 2008

Labour and Israel Our Home would be third with 12 seats each, followed by the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine mandates, and National Union and the National Religious Party with eight seats.

If transportation minister Shaul Mofaz were to lead Kadima into the next election, Likud would be first with 31 seats, followed by Kadima and Labour with 16 mandates each, and Israel Our Home with 11 seats.

401 In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by current head of government Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. Olmert’s coalition now has the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

On Jul. 31, Olmert announced that he will not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership on Sept. 17, which will effectively end his tenure. Whoever wins the leadership vote will form a new government. Livni and Mofaz are the two main contenders for the party’s leadership.

On Sept. 3, during an election rally, Livni described herself a centrist politician, declaring, "It’s easy to be a rightist and criticize everything without offering alternatives. It’s also easy to be a leftist and ignore realities. It’s harder to be a centrist, and the fact that we are centrists is not a coincidence. It’s an ideology. Kadima will not divide the people."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election (Results presented in seats)

Kadima Kadima w/ Livni w/ Mofaz

Likud (Consolidation) 31 31

Kadima (Forward) 23 16

Labour 12 16

Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) 12 11

International Organization of 9 8 Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas)

National Union (Ikhud) and 8 8 Mafdal (National Religious Party)

402 Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism) 6 6

Together (Yachad) 5 6

Social Justice (Tzedek Hevrati) 4 5

Green Party (Yerukim) -- 3

Gil (Retired People’s Party) -- --

Arab parties 10 10

Source: Teleseker / Maariv Methodology: Interviews with 448 Israeli adults, conducted on Aug. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

West Europe

Europeans Not Keen on Turkey’s EU Bid

September 09, 2008

A majority of residents of seven European Union (EU) member nations are against Turkey’s potential accession to the continental group, according to a poll by Ifop published in Valeurs Actuelles. At least 67 per cent of respondents in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France oppose Turkey’s bid to join the EU.

More than 50 per cent of respondents in Spain, Italy and Britain are also against Turkey entering the 27-member bloc.

In October 2005, the EU officially began accession talks with Turkey. The country has been seeking inclusion for more than forty years, and filed a formal application to that effect in 1987. Since then, it has taken steps required only of members—including the establishment of a customs union—but was not accepted as a candidate state until 1999.

In October 2006, EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn declared: "Our relationship with this country is schizophrenic. (...) There is in Turkey a feeling of deception, because it is thought that ‘Europeans don’t want us in the Union’. As for the Union, it is disappointed by the sluggish pace of reforms, which are not sufficiently credible, leading to suspicion in public opinion. It is a real vicious circle that I want to break and this will be difficult to do if accession negotiations are suspended."

In his Aug. 31 state of the nation address, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to re-focus the government’s attention on the EU accession bid by implementing stalled reforms, adding, "In line with the founding principles of our democratic, secular, social state that respects the rule of law, Turkey will move ahead in the direction of

403 becoming a full member of the EU." Erdogan defined Turkey’s EU membership as a "strategic choice."

Polling Data

Do you personally favour or oppose Turkey’s accession into the European Union (EU)?

Favour Oppose

France 20% 80%

Germany 24% 76%

Belgium 32% 68%

Netherlands 33% 67%

Britain 43% 57%

Italy 44% 56%

Spain 49% 51%

Source: Ifop / Valeurs Actuelles Methodology: Telephone interviews with 7,007 adults in Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, conducted from Jul. 29 to Aug. 25, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Russia a Dangerous Dictatorship for Britons

September 09, 2008

Additionally, 50 per cent of respondents regard Russia as a threat to world peace, and 54 per cent think the country threatens peace in Europe.

Russia is currently under pressure from several Western nations over a recent conflict with Georgia.

404 operate in both regions. Georgia is currently led by pro-Western politicians and is in talks to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Russia has now pulled out most of its troops from central and Western Georgia. Russian soldiers are still present in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Aug. 25, Russian lawmakers unanimously passed a resolution asking Russian president Dmitry Medvedev to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent nations. The following day, Medvedev signed a decree formally acknowledging the independence of both regions.

On Sept. 1, as European Union (EU) leaders held an emergency meeting over the conflict, British prime minister Gordon Brown declared: "The 27 members of the EU are totally united in condemning the aggression of the Russian government."

Polling Data

Do you regard Russia just at the moment as a threat to world peace?

Yes, I do 50%

No, I don’t 29%

Not sure 21%

Do you regard Russia just at the moment as a threat to the peace of Europe?

Yes, I do 54%

No, I don’t 26%

Not sure 20%

Which of the following statements do you think best describes Russia today?

405 Russia is a fully democratic country, with a free press and free and fair elections 1%

Although Russia is not yet a fully democratic country, it is moving steadily in that 18% direction

Although Russia presents itself as a democracy, in reality it is virtually a 56% dictatorship, with severe restrictions on press freedom and rigged elections

Russia has reverted to being a full totalitarian dictatorship along the lines of 4% Stalin’s Russia and Hitler’s Germany

Don’t know 22%

Source: YouGov / Daily Telegraph Methodology: Online interviews with 2,267 British voters, conducted on Aug. 26 and Aug. 27, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

French Criticize Effects of Globalization

September 08, 2008

Also, 69 per cent of respondents say that globalization allows for a larger variety of products made available in France, and 65 per cent think it leads to the concentration of power in the hands of businesses. Overall, 46 per cent of respondents disagree with the idea that globalization is good for France, and 53 per cent of respondents say globalization is not good for them individually.

Earlier this year, French president Nicolas Sarkozy blamed former British cabinet minister and current European trade commissioner Peter Mandelson for the defeat of the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland, adding, "A child dies of starvation every 30 seconds and the [European] commission wanted to reduce European agriculture production by 21 per cent during World Trade Organization talks. This was really counterproductive."

Mandelson declared: "I think they are making a point about trade, actually, not a serious analysis of the reasons why the Irish people voted No in the referendum. (...) I think [Sarkozy] is over-simplifying the argument, but he is also pointing his finger in the wrong direction."

On Aug. 7, Gilles Moec, an economist with Bank of America, commented on France’s record-high trade deficit in July, saying, "France has, to a great extent, missed the boat on

406 globalization. (...) Germany has expanded internationally and taken in the emerging markets, in sectors like the auto industry. France, in this regard, is still quite muted."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with each of these statements?

Not Agree Disagree sure

Globalization allows for a larger variety of products in our 69% 22% 9% country

Globalization increases environmental problems in the 69% 18% 13% planet

Globalization represents a threat to jobs in France 68% 22% 10%

Globalization leads to the concentration of power in the 65% 16% 19% hands of businesses

All things considered, globalization is good for France 41% 46% 13%

All things considered, globalization is good for me 32% 53% 15%

Source: TNS Sofres / Les Gracques / Le Nouvel Observateur Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 French adults, conducted on Aug. 27 and Aug. 28, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

We Are Not European Citizens, Say French

September 07, 2008

France is one of the founding members of the European Economic Community (ECC), the predecessor of the European Union (EU). On Oct. 29, 2004, EU heads of state officially signed the European Constitution. The project for a continental body of law was practically abandoned in 2005, after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the proposed document in two plebiscites.

French president Nicolas Sarkozy—whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU—was one of the staunchest supporters of a new version of the

407 constitution known as the Lisbon Treaty. The future of the proposed body of law is yet to be defined after a majority of voters in Ireland rejected its adoption in June.

On Sept. 5, Polish president Lech Kaczynski accused Germany and France of dominating the EU, saying that the group is governed by a "directorate" from Berlin and Paris. Kaczynski vowed to "change" that in the future.

Polling Data

Do you think of yourself as a citizen of Europe?

Jul. 2008 Dec. 2001

Yes 38% 29%

No 62% 70%

Source: TNS Sofres / CIDEM Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 French adults, conducted on Jul. 22 and Jul. 23, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Germans Fear New Russian Territorial Wars

September 07, 2008

408 On Aug. 12, French president Nicolas Sarkozy—whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU)—brokered a cease fire which included a commitment by Russia to withdraw its forces from Georgian territory.

Russia has now pulled out most of its troops from central and Western Georgia. Russian soldiers are still present in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Sept. 5, German vice-chancellor and foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier called for an international inquiry into the Georgia-Russia conflict led by the United Nations (UN) or the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), adding, "Perhaps it will never be fully cleared up. But I urge both sides to be open to an independent inquiry into the events of early August."

Polling Data

Following Russia’s military incursion into Georgia, do you think Russia could stake further territorial claims along its borders?

Yes 60%

No 34%

Not sure 6%

Source: Emnid / N24 Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 German adults, conducted on Aug. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Westerners Slam Their Nations’ Economies

September 05, 2008

An overwhelming proportion of people in five European countries and the United States agree that their countries’ economies are in bad shape, according to a poll by Harris Interactive published in the Financial Times. More than 80 per cent of respondents in Britain, France, Italy, Spain and the U.S. say that the economy in their own nation has worsened in the past year. In Germany, 58 per cent of respondents feel the same way.

Since last year, defaults on so-called subprime mortgages—credit given to high-risk borrowers—in the United States have caused volatility in domestic and financial markets and raised concerns that the U.S. economy could fall into a recession. The crisis has

409 spilled over into the global markets due to the rising price of oil. Industrialized economies in the Western world have been the hardest hit so far.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its official World Economic Outlook: "The global economy is in a tough spot, caught between sharply slowing demand in many advanced economies and rising inflation everywhere."

On Aug. 28, the Italian government enacted new bankruptcy legislation that relaxes anti- trust regulations and allows companies to take specific actions, such as selling shares and laying off employees. The bill was regarded as an effort to save troubled air carrier Alitalia. Last year, an auction to sell the state-owned airline ended with no buyer after seven months of bidding.

On Sept. 1, Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "The country will have an its important and efficient flag carrier, absolutely Italian, run by best manager on the market."

Polling Data

In the past year would you say that the economy in your country has become?

BRI FRA ITA ESP GER USA

Much / somewhat better 3% 3% 3% 6% 16% 3%

Remained about the same 8% 2% 2% 4% 14% 2%

Much / somewhat worse 89% 87% 88% 81% 58% 90%

Source: Harris Interactive / Financial Times Methodology: Online interviews with 6,134 adults in the United States, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Britain, conducted from Jul. 30 to Aug. 12, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

North America

One Third of Canadians Back Afghan Mission

September 14, 2008

Afghanistan has been the main battleground in the war on terrorism. The conflict began in October 2001, after the Taliban regime refused to hand over Osama bin Laden, prime

410 suspect in the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Al-Qaeda operatives hijacked and crashed four airplanes on Sept. 11, 2001, killing nearly 3,000 people.

At least 956 soldiers—including 97 Canadians—have died in the war on terrorism, either in support of the U.S.-led Operation Enduring Freedom or as part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party— led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper formed a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party.

On Sept. 10, Harper—in the middle of a federal electoral campaign—assured that there would be no new extension of the mission if he forms the government again, saying, "You have to put an end date on these things. By 2011, we will have been in Kandahar, which is probably the toughest province in the country, for six years. Not only have we done our bit at that point, I think our goal has to be after six years to see the government of Afghanistan able to carry the lion’s share of responsibility for its own security. At that point, the mission, as we’ve known it, we intend to end."

Polling Data

As you may know, the House of Commons has authorized an extension of Canada’s mission in Afghanistan until the end of 2011. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to extend Canada’s mission in Afghanistan until the end of 2011?

Sept. 2008 Jul. 2008 May 2008

Agree 34% 36% 41%

Disagree 59% 58% 54%

Not sure 7% 6% 6%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies Methodology: Online interviews with 1,001 Canadian adults, conducted on Sept. 9 and Sept. 10, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

411 Terrorism Worries Seem to Subside in U.S.

September 14, 2008

Al-Qaeda operatives hijacked and crashed four airplanes in the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001, killing nearly 3,000 people. In July 2004, the federal commission that investigated the events of 9/11 concluded that "none of the measures adopted by the U.S. government from 1998 to 2001 disturbed or even delayed the progress of the al-Qaeda plot" and pointed out government failures of "imagination, policy, capabilities, and management."

Afghanistan has been the main battleground in the war on terrorism. In October 2001, U.S. president George W. Bush ordered the invasion of Afghanistan, claiming that there would be "no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbour them." The conflict began after the Taliban regime refused to hand over Osama bin Laden, prime suspect in the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

On Sept. 11, Bush attended the dedication ceremony of the 9/11 Pentagon Memorial, and declared: "The day will come when most Americans have no living memory of the events of September the 11th. When they visit this memorial, they will learn that the 21st century began with a great struggle between the forces of freedom and the forces of terror. They will learn that this generation of Americans met its duty—we did not tire, we did not falter, and we did not fail. They will learn that freedom prevailed because the desire for liberty lives in the heart of every man, woman, and child on Earth."

Polling Data

How concerned are you about the possibility there will be more major terrorist attacks in the United States? Is that something that worries you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not at all?

Sept. Sept. 2008 Sept. 2007 2006

A great deal 18% 25% 29%

Somewhat 46% 41% 45%

Not too much 23% 23% 17%

Not at all 13% 10% 8%

412 Source: TNS / ABC News / Washington Post Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,133 American adults, conducted from Sept. 5 to Sept. 7, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

September 12, 2008

Gallup Daily: McCain 48%, Obama 45%

Race moves closer

These results, based on interviewing conducted Tuesday through Thursday, mark the first time since the Sept. 4-6 report that McCain does not have a statistically significant lead over Obama, and also reflect interviewing on Thursday that showed a very close race. It is unknown whether or not Thursday's results may have reflected any possible impact of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's widely publicized television interviews with Charles Gibson of ABC News, which began to be broadcast Thursday evening.

The story of the presidential race this year since early June has been a tendency for candidate support levels to return to near parity after one or the other candidate moves into a brief lead, so the days ahead will show whether or not this contest will once again settle back into a "too close to call" structure.

413 Obama and McCain were together Thursday at memorial services in New York at the site of the 9/11 terrorist attack, but both campaigns have now returned to hot and heavy campaigning, including ads directly attacking each other's positions on issues. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Sept. 9-11, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,726 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Americans Clearly Disheartened with U.S. Congress

September 02, 2008

414 The approval rating for Congress stands at 18 per cent in a study by Harris Interactive, 17 per cent in a poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times, and 16 per cent in surveys by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and Financial Dynamics / Diageo/Hotline.

American voters renewed the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate in November 2006. In January 2007, the Democratic Party took control of the lower house for the first time since 1994, with 233 lawmakers. A victory for the Democratic candidates for the Senate in Montana and Virginia also gave the party a majority in the upper house. Democratic California congresswoman Nancy Pelosi became the first female speaker of the House.

On Aug. 29, Pelosi criticized presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s selection of Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, declaring, "She shares John McCain’s commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade and continuing George Bush’s failed economic policies."

American voters will elect a new president, and renew the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate on Nov. 4.

Polling Data a) Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?

Aug. 2008 Oct. 2007 Jun. 2007

Approve 20% 21% 19%

Disapprove 73% 68% 69%

Unsure 7% 11% 13%

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News Methodology: Telephone interviews with 900 registered American voters, conducted on Aug. 19 and Aug. 20, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

b) How would you rate the overall job the Congress is doing—excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?

Aug. 2008 Jun. 2008 Apr. 2008

Positive 18% 13% 17%

Negative 77% 83% 77%

415 Source: Harris Interactive Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,015 American adults, conducted from Aug. 6 to Aug. 10, 2008. No margin of error was provided. c) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Aug. 2008 Oct. 2007 Jun. 2007

Approve 17% 22% 27%

Disapprove 73% 69% 65%

Unsure 10% 9% 8%

Source: Bloomberg / Los Angeles Times

Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,375 American adults, conducted from Aug. 15 to Aug. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent. d) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Aug. 2008 Jul. 2008 May 2008

Approve 16% 14% 16%

Disapprove 74% 77% 76%

Unsure 10% 9% 8%

Source: Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,547 likely American voters, conducted from Aug. 12 to Aug. 17, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent. e) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Mar. Aug. 2008 Apr. 2008 2008

Approve 16% 18% 23%

Disapprove 78% 75% 72%

Unsure 6% 8% 6%

416 Source: Financial Dynamics / Diageo/Hotline Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,022 registered American voters, conducted from Aug. 18 to Aug. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

East Europe

Russians Evidently Urge for Better Health Care

September 02, 2008

Most people in Russia have a poor opinion of their medical services, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 62 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with the public health care system, and an additional 73 per cent think it is not possible to get good medical care in Russia.

Russian voters renewed the State Duma in December 2007. United Russia (YR)—whose candidate list was headed by then president Vladimir Putin—secured 64.1 per cent of the vote and 315 of the legislature’s 450 seats. The Communist Party (KPRF) finished second with 11.6 per cent of the vote and 57 seats, followed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) with 40 seats, and the opposition movement A Just Russia with 38 seats.

Putin eventually endorsed Dmitry Medvedev as a presidential candidate, and Medvedev said it would be of the "utmost importance" to have Putin as prime minister. In March, Medvedev easily won Russia’s presidential election with 70.28 per cent of the vote. In May, Medvedev was sworn in as president. His nomination of Putin as prime minister was confirmed by the State Duma in a 392-56 vote.

In the Soviet Union, all citizens were eligible to receive free health care. Since 1991, the Russian Federation has kept the state-run system, but financing has fallen by about 35 per cent and patients must sometimes pay for some medical procedures themselves. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Russia ranks 130th in terms of the effectiveness of its health care system.

In July, Alexandra Vacroux, a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center—an American think tank—offered her views on the state of Russia’s health care system, declaring, "Ministry of Health officials are not that familiar with what is happening on the ground. Moreover, there is increasing disparity in the quality of health care systems across the regions, and no effective system to equalize [them]." Vacroux also said that while Putin poured vast amounts of money into the national health care system to implement reforms, "it’s unclear if Medvedev will have the power and desire to undertake potentially unpopular reforms."

Polling Data

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the public health care system in Russia?

417 Satisfied 11%

Dissatisfied 62%

Hard to answer 4%

Do you think you, or other members of your family, can obtain good medical care in Russia?

Yes 25%

No 73%

Hard to answer 2%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Aug. 9 and Aug. 10, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Ukrainians Concerned Over Russian Incursion

September 08, 2008

418 Russia has now pulled out most of its troops from central and Western Georgia. Russian soldiers are still present in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

It has been widely speculated that Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula—which is home to a large Russian population—might face the same fate of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Sept. 3, Ukraine’s governing coalition split in great part due to disagreements over the Georgia-Russia conflict. In the days following the incursion, Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko asked the government to fiercely condemn Russia’s actions in Georgia, but Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko refused to take a strong stance against Russia.

The coalition of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS- NU) had been in power since December 2007, with a slim majority in the legislature. Tymoshenko accused the president of "destroying" the governing coalition by pulling out.

Polling Data

Do you think a conflict like the one that took place in Georgia could happen in Ukraine?

Yes 48.5%

No 40.4%

Not sure 11.1%

Source: Institute for Strategic Studies Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,011 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Aug. 21 to Aug. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.

West Asia

September 12, 2008

Terrorism, Economy Dual Threats for Pakistanis

Majority believes government’s terrorism efforts are lacking

After a nearly nine-year absence, civilian rule returned in Pakistan Tuesday, when widower of slain Pakistani leader Benazir Bhutto, Asif Ali Zardari, was sworn in as

419 president. Gallup Polls in Pakistan reveal increasing frustration with efforts to fight terrorism -- one of two major challenges for the new leader -- with a majority of Pakistanis (54%) in June 2008 saying the government is not doing enough, up from 45% in 2007.

Zardari, who views the threat of global terrorism as one of the chief challenges facing Pakistanis, vowed Tuesday that his country will "stand together" with Afghanistan in the war against terrorism. The president's promise, if kept, may help reassure Pakistanis whom Gallup Polls show were growing increasingly skeptical of the previous government's efforts to combat a rising militant insurgency. Between June 2007 and June 2008, when President Pervez Musharraf was still in power, the percentage of Pakistanis who said their government was doing enough to fight terrorism deteriorated from 33% to 25%.

Pakistanis living in provinces along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, which some consider a haven for the Taliban and al-Qaeda, are by far the most dubious of their government's efforts to fight terrorism. In North West Frontier province and in Baluchistan, Gallup observed drastic drops from 2007 to 2008 in residents' perceptions that the government was doing enough to fight terrorism. In Punjab and Sindh, provinces far removed from borderlands, evaluations of the government's efforts stayed the same or improved somewhat.

420

Rising violence and the government's perceived ineffectiveness to quell it may have contributed to the erosion in Pakistanis' general feelings of personal security. According to the latest Gallup Poll, fewer Pakistanis than ever say they feel safe walking alone at night in the areas where they live.

The Economy

421 In addition to dealing with the country's worsening security problems, Pakistan's new president also will be contending with rapidly deteriorating economic conditions. After several good years of economic expansion, Pakistan's economy is slowing, severely hampered by soaring consumer price and food price inflation, an extremely weak currency, and risky national debt.

Only three years ago, a slim majority of Pakistanis (51%) gave positive assessments of the country's economy, but their most recent opinions reflect the worsening situation. A record-low 13% of Pakistanis surveyed in June, when consumer price inflation hit a 30- year high and food price inflation soared to 32%, said economic conditions in the country are good.

Looking ahead, few Pakistanis are optimistic that the country's economic situation will improve. Only 10% of citizens surveyed in June said they think the country's economy is getting better, which represents a huge drop from the 45% who said this in 2005 and the 26% who said this last year. Commensurate with their lack of confidence in the country's economy, only 27% of respondents surveyed in June said their standard of living was getting better, compared with 53% who said so in 2005 and 48% who said so in 2007.

Pakistan's Future

Many Pakistanis' hopes are pinned on Zardari's ability to bring political and economic stability to the nation and make the country's return to democracy successful. On the other hand, there will be mounting pressure from the United States to see significant efforts in fighting terrorism with a considerable financial stake attached to it. The coming

422 months will see a serious test of Zardari's ability to walk the political tightrope and address the twin dragons of terrorism and the economy -- at the same time.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000- 1,500 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in 2005, 2007, and 2008, in Pakistan. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 to ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

International Poll: No Consensus On Who Was Behind 9/11 September 10, 2008

A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 17 nations finds that majorities in only nine of them believe that al Qaeda was behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States.

In no country does a majority agree on another possible perpetrator, but in most countries significant minorities cite the US government itself and, in a few countries, Israel. These responses were given spontaneously to an open-ended question that did not offer response options.

On average, 46 percent say that al Qaeda was behind the attacks while 15 percent say the US government, seven percent Israel, and seven percent some other perpetrator. One in four say they do not know.

Given the extraordinary impact the 9/11 attacks have had on world affairs, it is remarkable that seven years later there is no international consensus about who was behind them," comments Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org.

Even in European countries, the majorities that say al Qaeda was behind 9/11 are not overwhelming. Fifty-seven percent of Britons, 56 percent of Italians, 63 percent of French and 64

423 percent of Germans cite al Qaeda." However, significant portions of Britons (26%), French (23%), and Italians (21%) say they do not know who was behind 9/11. Remarkably, 23 percent of Germans cite the US government, as do 15 percent of Italians.

Publics in the Middle East are especially likely to name a perpetrator other than al Qaeda. In Egypt 43 percent say that Israel was behind the attacks, as do 31 percent in Jordan and 19 percent in the Palestinian Territories. The US government is named by 36 percent of Turks and 27 percent of Palestinians. The numbers who say al Qaeda was behind the attacks range from 11 percent in Jordan to 42 percent in the Palestinian Territories.

The only countries with overwhelming majorities citing al Qaeda are the African countries: Kenya (77%) and Nigeria (71%). In Nigeria, a large majority of Muslims (64%) also say that al Qaeda was behind the attacks (compared to 79% of Nigerian Christians).

The poll of 16,063 respondents was conducted between July 15 and August 31, 2008 by WorldPublicOpinion.org, a collaborative research project involving research centers from around the world and managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. Margins of error range from +/-3 to 4 percent.

Interviews were conducted in 17 nations, including most of the largest nations--China, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Russia--as well as Egypt, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, the Palestinian Territories, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, and the Ukraine.

Respondents were asked "Who do you think was behind the 9/11 attacks?" and their answers were categorized into four response groups: "Al Qaeda," "the US government," Israel," or "Other." Any answers that approximated al Qaeda, such as "bin Laden" or "Islamic extremists," were categorized along with those who said al Qaeda. Those who simply characterized the perpetrators as "Arabs," "Saudis," or "Egyptians" (3% on average) were included in the "Other" category.

Respondents in Asia have mixed responses. Bare majorities in Taiwan (53%) and South Korea (51%) name al Qaeda, but 17 percent of South Koreans point to the US government and large numbers in both countries say they do not know (Taiwan 34%, South Korea 22%).

Majorities of Chinese (56%) and Indonesians (57%) say they do not know, with significant minorities citing the US government (Indonesia 14%, China 9%).

A clear majority of Russians (57%) and a plurality of Ukrainians (42%) say al Qaeda was behind the attacks. But significant minorities identify the US government (15% in both cases) and large numbers do not provide an answer (Ukrainians 39%, Russians 19%).

Out of all countries polled, Mexico has the second-largest number citing the US government as the perpetrator of 9/11 (30%, after Turkey at 36%). Only 33 percent name

424 al Qaeda.

Though people with greater education generally have greater exposure to news, those with greater education are only slightly more likely to attribute 9/11 to al Qaeda. Steven Kull comments, "It does not appear that these beliefs can simply be attributed to a lack of exposure to information."

A stronger correlate of beliefs about 9/11 are respondents' attitudes about the United States. Those with a positive view of America's influence in the world are more likely to cite al Qaeda (on average 59%) than those with a negative view (40%). Those with a positive view of the United States are also less likely to blame the US government (7%) than those with a negative view (22%).

425 Business and Politics in The Muslim World Opinion Polls weekly report September 15-21, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: September 23, 2008

Introduction Summary Middle East Few Palestinians Expect to Form Own State Likud Continues to Lead Kadima in Israel East Europe Many Russians Would Back Putin for President West Europe Obama Would Win Ten-to-One in France Fewer Dutch Adults Fear Terrorist Attack North America Economic Outlook Worsens in Canada Green Shift Fails to Inspire in Canada National Economy Not Sound, Say Americans Most Americans Want to Change Health Care Americans Want Iraq Withdrawal Timetable Views on Iraq War Soften in United States Gallup Daily: Obama Leading McCain by 4 Points Hispanics See Their Situation in U.S. Deteriorating Gallup Daily: Little Change Yet in Americans' View of Economy Africa Middle East/North Africa Relies on Many News Sources Kenyans Trust Coalition Government to Last East Asia Japanese Consumer Confidence Crumbling

426 South America Argentines Blame Government for Inflation Pacific Australians Back Carbon Reduction Scheme Global Poll All Countries in BBC Poll Prefer Obama to McCain Unfavorable Views of Both Jews and Muslims Increase in Europe

Introduction

This week report consists of 21 surveys. Of these 21, two of these are global polls while one is regional in the context of Middle East and North Africa. The rest of 18 are national surveys.

Political issues

During the second week of September, John McCain had lead over Obama in Gallup daily tracking of U.S. Presidential election. But Now Obama is recovered its position. As of yesterday data he was enjoying a four point lead over McCain again. A BBC world service survey of 22 countries find that in all the countries public prefer Obama over McCain. The margin of support for him ranges from 9 to 82 per cent. The other interesting finding is that public in 17 out of 22 countries believes that if Obama is elected as next President, the perception about U.S. would change in the world. Moreover they also believe that relations of U.S. with the world will improve. But in case of McCain the perception are that it will make no difference in U.S. image in the world.

Latino Americans believe that their situation in U.S. is deteriorating. Large majorities of Hispanic American oppose the immigration key measures. This is especially true of foreign born Hispanic Americans. With respect to elections more than half of Latino- Americans believe democrats to be more careful about them.

Palestinians are getting pessimist about the resolution of Palestine issue and eventual establishment of there own state. The polls have been showing that they are more pessimistic in this respect than Israelis. Last week survey show that majorities say there are little prospect of an independent Palestinian state next to Israel. On the other side of the border Likud continues to enjoy the confidence of the Israelis. If elections are held today, Likud would get the majority of vote followed by Kadima.

427 Pew Research center survey of European nation’s shows that views of Jews and Muslims have worsened. Except for Great Britain, in rest of the West European nations and Russia the views of Jews have deteriorated. But the views about Muslims have also worsened. Views about Muslims are more negative than Jews. These negative views are high among respondents with age over 50, less educated (no college) and rightists.

Economic issues

This week report again shows the trend regarding negative perceptions about economy in Canada, United States and Japan. The same negative perceptions about economy are prevalent and widespread in both developed and developing world.

Social issues

Last week in the social front most of the polls were about environmental concern and its various aspects. Canadians review the “Green Shift” a plan to deal with climate change issue. 40 per cent of respondents believe the proposed carbon tax will ultimately lead people to be more mindful of their carbon consumption, down 25 points since July.

In addition, 47 per cent of respondents believe putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is a good idea, 40 per cent say they are willing to pay higher taxes on fossil fuels if they also get an income tax cut. On the other hand, 66 per cent of respondents think the proposed carbon tax will hurt low-income families, singles and seniors, due to rising energy costs, and only 25 per cent believe it is the best way to curb climate change.

On the hand majority of people in Australia agree with a government-proposed scheme to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 59 per cent of Australian think the plan will help slow global warming, and 58 per cent are willing to pay more for oil, electricity and gas in order to help curb pollution.

Summary

Middle East

Few Palestinians Expect to Form Own State

Few people in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip expect to see the creation of a Palestinian state within the next five years, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 27.5 per cent of respondents believe the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to Israel are medium to high, while 69.2 per cent are more skeptical.

September 20, 2008

428 Likud Continues to Lead Kadima in Israel

The Likud party remains ahead of all other rivals in Israel, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows that the party led by Benjamin Netanyahu would secure 29 seats in the next legislative election. September 21, 2008

East Europe

Many Russians Would Back Putin for President

A third of people in Russia would vote for Vladimir Putin in the next presidential election, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 33 per cent of respondents would back the former president-turned-prime minister in the next ballot. September 17, 2008

West Europe

Obama Would Win Ten-to-One in France

The vast majority of people in France want Democratic candidate Barack Obama to win the race for the White House, according to a poll by TNS Sofres. 80 per cent of respondents would prefer to have Obama as the next United States president, while only eight per cent would rather see Republican contender John McCain as the country’s next head of state.

September 17, 2008

Fewer Dutch Adults Fear Terrorist Attack

The proportion of people in the Netherlands who think their country could be the target of a terrorist attack has decreased since 2003, according to a poll by Maurice the Hond. 27 per cent of respondents fear a terrorist attack could take place in their country in the not too distant future, down four points in five years. September 15, 2008

North America

Economic Outlook Worsens in Canada

Fewer adults in Canada are satisfied with their country’s financial standing, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 59 per cent of respondents rate the economic conditions in Canada as good or very good, down eight points since

429 July. September 17, 2008

Green Shift Fails to Inspire in Canada

Canadian adults are now more skeptical about the ultimate goal of an environmental plan introduced by the opposition Liberal party, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 40 per cent of respondents believe the proposed carbon tax—also known as the "Green Shift"—will ultimately lead people to be more mindful of their carbon consumption, down 25 points since July. September 21, 2008

National Economy Not Sound, Say Americans

Adults in the United States are clearly worried about the state of their country’s finances, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 60 per cent of respondents believe the U.S. economy is not fundamentally sound, and 37 per cent blame private corporations for the current problems on Wall Street. September 21, 2008

Most Americans Want to Change Health Care

Adults in the United States believe their medical services are due for a transformation, according to a poll by CBS News and the New York Times. 50 per cent of respondents think the health care system requires fundamental changes, and 35 per cent want to completely rebuild it.

September 20, 2008

Americans Want Iraq Withdrawal Timetable

A majority of adults in the United States want their government to establish a date for the end of the coalition effort, according to a poll by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media released by the Associated Press. 59 per cent of respondents favour setting a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. September 19, 2008

Views on Iraq War Soften in United States

More Americans believe the coalition effort is going well, according to a poll by TNS released by the Washington Post and ABC News. 52 per cent of respondents think the U.S. is making significant progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq, up six points since July.

September 16, 2008

430 Gallup Daily: Obama Leading McCain by 4 Points

Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain in national voter preferences for the presidential election, now by a four percentage point margin, 49% to 45%. John McCain had the upper hand in the second week but Obama recovered soon especiall with the news of Lehman Brothers' imminent bankruptcy on Sunday, Sept. 14.

September 21, 2008

Hispanics See Their Situation in U.S. Deteriorating

Half (50%) of all Latinos say that the situation of Latinos in this country is worse now than it was a year ago, according to a new nationwide survey of 2,015 Hispanic adults conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center. Large Majorities Oppose Most Key Immigration Enforcement Measures. September 18, 2008 Gallup Daily: Little Change Yet in Americans' View of Economy The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on Americans' views of the U.S. economy finds little significant change compared to the Monday's report. Today's three-day rolling average includes interviewing on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and shows that 79% of Americans believe the U.S. economy is getting worse, while 16% feel it is getting better. September 16, 2008

Africa Middle East/North Africa Relies on Many News Sources People in Middle East and North Africa use different sources for getting news. Citizens in Turkey and Iran mostly rely on national television. But in Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Egypt international television is most relieble source for getting news. September 18, 2008 Kenyans Trust Coalition Government to Last

Most people in Kenya think their coalition government will last until the next presidential elections are held, according to a poll by Gallup. 56 per cent of respondents in eight Kenyan provinces share this opinion, while 18 per cent give the agreement at least one year.

September 15, 2008

East Asia

Japanese Consumer Confidence Crumbling

431 A recent Gallup Poll in Japan finds consumer confidence disintegrating during the same quarter, with more than three in four Japanese (77%) in June and July saying that economic conditions are getting worse.

September 17, 2008

South America

Argentines Blame Government for Inflation

Most people in Argentina think the government is to blame for the rising cost of life, according to a poll by UCA and TNS Gallup. 54 per cent of respondents say the economic policies of the administration headed by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner are mainly responsible for price increases in the country. September 20, 2008

Pacific

Australians Back Carbon Reduction Scheme

The majority of people in Australia agree with a government-proposed scheme to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 59 per cent of respondents think the plan will help slow global warming, and 58 per cent are willing to pay more for oil, electricity and gas in order to help curb pollution.

September 19, 2008

Global Polls

All Countries in BBC Poll Prefer Obama to McCain All 22 countries in a BBC World Service poll would prefer Democratic nominee Barack Obama elected US president instead of his Republican rival John McCain. Obama is preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled.

September 09, 2008

Unfavorable Views of Both Jews and Muslims Increase in Europe

(Pew Research center) Ethnocentric attitudes are on the rise in Europe. Growing numbers of people in several major European countries say they have an unfavorable opinion of Jews, and opinions of Muslims, which were already substantially more negative, have also grown increasingly so compared with several years ago.

432 September 17, 2008

Middle East

Few Palestinians Expect to Form Own State

September 20, 2008

During the six-day war in 1967, Israel gained control of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, eastern Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights.

433 towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

On Sept. 16, a day before stepping down as leader of his Kadima party, Olmert referred to the so-called "right of return" of Palestinian people to territory lost in the war, saying that Israel is "willing to be part of an international mechanism that would look into the solutions for this problem, a solution within the Palestinian state, which will be home for the Palestinian nation and not within the home of the Jewish people."

Polling Data

Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?

Non-existent 31.2%

Low 38.0%

Medium 24.0%

High 3.5%

Not sure 3.3%

Likud Continues to Lead Kadima in Israel

September 21, 2008

The governing Kadima is second with 25 mandates, followed by Labour with 14 seats, Israel Our Home with 12 mandates, the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine seats, and National Union and the National Religious Party with eight mandates.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by then head of government Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a

434 coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the government. The coalition secured the support of 78 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

In May, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. Olmert is alleged to have illegally accepted hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars from Moshe Talansky and other wealthy Jewish-American businessmen, either as illegal campaign contributions or bribes. Neither Olmert nor Talansky have been charged with any crime, but now Olmert is under investigation. On Jul. 31, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership on Sept. 17, effectively ending his tenure.

On Sept. 17, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader. Livni—who will take over as Israel’s prime minister if she can assemble a government within 42 days of being asked to do so by Israeli president Shimon Peres—vowed to "meet with members of the Knesset factions in order to create quickly a coalition that will be able to cope with those challenges ahead of us."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election (Results presented in seats)

Sept. 11 Aug. 27

Likud (Consolidation) 29 31

Kadima (Forward) 25 23

Labour 14 12

Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) 12 12

International Organization of 9 9 Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas)

National Union (Ikhud) and 8 8 Mafdal (National Religious Party)

Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism) 5 6

Together (Yachad) 4 5

Social Justice (Tzedek Hevrati) 2 4

435 Green Party (Yerukim) 2 --

Gil (Retired People’s Party) -- --

Arab parties 10 10

Source: Teleseker / Maariv Methodology: Interviews with 900 Israeli adults, conducted on Sept. 11, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.

East Europe

Many Russians Would Back Putin for President

September 17, 2008

Current Russian president Dmitry Medvedev is second with 14 per cent, followed by Communist Party (KPRF) leader Gennady Zyuganov with four per cent, and Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky with three per cent. Almost half of respondents are undecided, or would vote for other candidates.

Russian voters renewed the State Duma in December 2007. United Russia (YR)—whose candidate list was headed by then president Putin—secured 64.1 per cent of the vote and 315 of the legislature’s 450 seats. On that same month, Putin endorsed Dmitry Medvedev as a presidential candidate, and Medvedev said it would be of the "utmost importance" to have Putin as prime minister.

Last month, a military conflict broke out between Russia and Georgia over the Georgian breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where many Russian citizens live. On Aug. 8, Georgian forces entered South Ossetia to assert sovereignty over the region, and Russia responded with a full military operation that saw Russian soldiers take control of Georgian territory beyond South Ossetia. A ceasefire was later brokered by the European Union (EU). On Aug. 26, Russia formally acknowledged the independence of the Georgian breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Sept. 11, Putin said that Russia had no choice but to respond to Georgia’s incursion in South Ossetia, asking, "How did people expect Russia to react, with slingshots?", and

436 adding, "Did they expect the president to brandish a penknife? (...) What else could we do? Do you think we should have wiped the bloody snot away and hung our heads?"

Polling Data

If the presidential election took place this Sunday, who would you vote for? (Open- ended)

Vladimir Putin 33%

Dmitry Medvedev 14%

Gennady Zyuganov 4%

Vladimir Zhirinovsky 3%

Other / Not sure / Would not vote 46%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Aug. 15 to Aug. 18, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

West Europe

Obama Would Win Ten-to-One in France

September 17, 2008

Obama became the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee on Aug. 28, while McCain accepted the Republican Party’s nomination on Sept. 4.

In late July, Obama visited the Elysée Palace in France. French president Nicolas Sarkozy called the Democratic candidate his "buddy", and declared that he would be "delighted" to see Obama win the presidential election.

U.S. president George W. Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

437 Who would you prefer as the next president of the United States?

Barack Obama (D) 80%

John McCain (R) 8%

Neither 7%

No opinion 5%

Source: TNS Sofres Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 French adults, conducted on Sept. 2 and Sept. 3, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

Fewer Dutch Adults Fear Terrorist Attack

September 15, 2008

Conversely, 62 per cent of respondents are not concerned about terrorism in the near future.

In November 2004, controversial filmmaker Theo Van Gogh was murdered in the Netherlands. Van Gogh directed a short motion picture that depicts a husband’s abuse on a Muslim woman. Death threats to Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders and other former People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) members were left at the crime scene. Wilders went on to create the Party for Freedom (PvdV).

On Sept. 9, the National Coordinator for Combating Terrorism, a government agency, assured that the Netherlands is one of the world’s main targets for Islamic terrorist groups, and blamed it on a new movie which depicts the Muslim faith as a violent religion. The movie, titled Fitna, was released this year by Wilders.

In December 2007, Wilders explained the rationale for the picture, saying, "People who watch the movie will see that the Koran is very much alive today, leading to the destruction of everything we in the Western world stand for, which is respect and tolerance. (...) The tsunami of Islamicization is coming to Europe. We should come to be far stronger."

Polling Data

438 Are you afraid that a big terrorist attack will take place in the Netherlands in the not too distant future?

2008 2003

Yes 27% 31%

No 62% 63%

Not 11% 6% sure

Source: Maurice de Hond Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Dutch adults, conducted on Sept. 9, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

North America

Economic Outlook Worsens in Canada

September 17, 2008

In addition, 47 per cent of respondents expect Canada’s economy to remain the same over the next three months, 35 per cent forecast a decline, and nine per cent predict an improvement.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party— led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper formed a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

On Sept. 15, the stock market plummeted in North America, Europe and Asia. Harper discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "There are and there will be difficulties in

439 the world economy. My own belief is if we were going to have some kind of big crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now."

Dion criticized the current government’s handling of finances, saying, "[Harper] made bad choices regarding the way he spent. He spent more than any other government before him, but he built nothing with it."

Polling Data

How would you rate the economic conditions in Canada today?

Sept. 2008 Jul. 2008 May 2008

Very Good / Good 59% 67% 68%

Poor / Very Poor 36% 30% 28%

Not sure 5% 3% 4%

Over the next three months, do you think the Canadian economy will improve, remain the same, or decline?

Sept. 2008 Jul. 2008 May 2008

Improve 9% 7% 6%

Remain the same 47% 47% 48%

Decline 35% 41% 41%

Not sure 9% 5% 5%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies Methodology: Online interviews with 1,007 Canadian adults, conducted on Sept. 8 and Sept. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Green Shift Fails to Inspire in Canada

September 21, 2008

440 Shift"—will ultimately lead people to be more mindful of their carbon consumption, down 25 points since July.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party— led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper formed a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

On Jun. 19, Dion presented the "Green Shift", a revenue-neutral proposal that would establish new levies on carbon emissions, while at the same time providing reductions on income, personal and business taxes. Dion declared: "We’ll cut taxes on those things we all want more of—income, investment and innovation—and we will shift those taxes on things we want less of—pollution, greenhouse gas emission and waste. Our plan will be good for the environment and good for the economy—good for the planet, good for the wallet."

On Sept. 19, Dion rejected the assertion that the "Green Shift" is a major part of the Liberal election platform, saying, "You [the reporters] have said it was, never me. (...) I always said it was an important policy for Canada. We strongly believe it will be good for our country. The Green Shift is part of the solution, but the solution is the overall plan of [a federal] Liberal government."

The next federal election in Canada is scheduled for Oct. 14.

Polling Data

From what you have seen, heard or read about the proposed carbon tax, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? ("Agree" listed)

Sept. Jun. 2008 2008

The proposed carbon tax will ultimately lead people to be more 40% 65% mindful of their carbon consumption and change their behaviour

Putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is a good idea 47% 47%

I am willing to pay higher taxes on fossil fuels if I also get an income 40% 39%

441 tax cut

The proposed carbon tax is the best way to curb climate change 25% 28%

The proposed carbon tax will hurt low-income families, singles and 66% 68% seniors, due to rising energy costs

Source: Angus Reid Strategies Methodology: Online interviews with 1,004 Canadian adults, conducted on Sept. 10 and Sept. 11, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

National Economy Not Sound, Say Americans

September 21, 2008

George W. Bush—a Republican—earned a second four-year term in the November 2004 presidential election. The next presidential election will take place on Nov. 4.

Earlier this year, the U.S. government took control of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Other financial institutions—including Bear Stearns, Merril Lynch, Lehman Brothers, American International Group (AIG) and IndyMac Bancorp—have been sold, placed under bankruptcy protection, or received emergency loans from the Federal Reserve.

On Sept. 15, the stock market plummeted in North America, Europe and Asia. On Sept. 19, Bush explained the crisis, saying, "Problems that originated in the credit markets— and first showed up in the area of subprime mortgages—have spread throughout our financial system. This has led to an erosion of confidence that has frozen many financial transactions, including loans to consumers and to businesses seeking to expand and create jobs. As a result, we must act now to protect our nation’s economic health from serious risk."

442 Polling Data

Is the United States economy fundamentally sound?

Yes 27%

No 60%

Not sure 13%

Who is most to blame for the current problems on Wall Street?

Private corporations 37%

Congress 27%

The president 20%

The federal reserve 9%

Not sure 8%

Source: Rasmussen Reports Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American likely voters, conducted on Sept. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Most Americans Want to Change Health Care

September 20, 2008

Conversely, only 14 per cent believe the health care system works pretty well and only minor changes are necessary to make it work better.

Health care in the U.S. is based on a system of benefits provided by employers, as well as the Medicare and Medicaid programs which allocate health insurance for the elderly, disabled and poor. Around 47 million Americans are uninsured.

Yesterday, Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman Howard Dean discussed the role of health care in this year’s presidential election, saying, "It is a big issue. It’s one of those issues that people are going to quietly vote on. (...) Health care is important because it’s a critical part of a family’s economy, and [Democratic presidential nominee] Barack

443 Obama thinks that every family ought to have a doctor, and that we ought to make sure that they can’t lose their health care because they have a pre-existing condition. [Republican presidential nominee John] McCain essentially wants to tax your health care benefits, and Obama wants a system where everybody has health insurance that can’t be taken away."

American voters will elect a new president, and renew the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate on Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Which of the following three statements comes closest to expressing your overall view of the health care system in the United States? On the whole, the health care system works pretty well and only minor changes are necessary to make it work better; or, There are some good things in our health care system, but fundamental changes are needed; or, Our health care system has so much wrong with it that we need to completely rebuild it.

Sept. 2008 Jan. 2006

Minor Changes 14% 8%

Fundamental Changes 50% 56%

Completely Rebuild 35% 34%

Unsure 1% 2%

Source: CBS News / New York Times Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,133 American adults, conducted from Sept. 12 to Sept. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Americans Want Iraq Withdrawal Timetable

September 19, 2008

The coalition effort against Saddam Hussein’s regime was launched in March 2003. At least 4,168 American soldiers have died during the military operation, and 30,600 troops have been wounded in action.

444 In December 2005, Iraqi voters renewed their National Assembly. In May 2006, Shiite United Iraqi Alliance member Nouri al-Maliki officially took over as prime minister.

In September 2007, commander of the Multi-National Force - Iraq David Petraeus and U.S. ambassador in Iraq Ryan Crocker provided a comprehensive assessment of the situation in Iraq to the U.S. Congress.

The U.S. and Iraqi governments are hoping to finalize an agreement this year, which would establish a "security relationship" that would provide a legal basis for the presence of U.S. soldiers in Iraq.

Earlier today, South Korean defence minister Won Tae-jae confirmed that his country’s troops will leave Iraq by the end of the year, declaring, "There is no change to the plan to withdraw the Zaytun unit by the end of this year."

Polling Data

Do you favour, oppose, or neither favour nor oppose setting a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq?

Favour 59%

Oppose 35%

Neither 4%

Unsure 3%

Source: GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media / Associated Press Methodology: Telephone interviews with 812 likely American voters, conducted from Sept. 5 to Sept. 10, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.

Views on Iraq War Soften in United States

September 16, 2008

However, 61 per cent of respondents think the war with Iraq was not worth fighting.

The coalition effort against Saddam Hussein’s regime was launched in March 2003. At least 4,155 American soldiers have died during the military operation, and 30,600 troops have been wounded in action.

445 In December 2005, Iraqi voters renewed their National Assembly. In May 2006, Shiite United Iraqi Alliance member Nouri al-Maliki officially took over as prime minister.

On Sept. 13, Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "We have a single text, a final draft. It is up to the political leadership now to make a political decision. (...) We are not talking about a fixed timetable. We are talking about a time horizon, timeline, aspirational date."

Polling Data

Do you think the United States is or is not making significant progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq?

Sept. 2008 Aug. 2008 Jul. 2008

Is 52% 50% 46%

Is not 40% 46% 51%

Unsure 7% 4% 3%

All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?

Sept. 2008 Aug. 2008 Jul. 2008

Worth it 36% 35% 36%

Not worth it 61% 63% 63%

Unsure 3% 2% 1%

Source: TNS / ABC News / Washington Post Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,133 American adults, conducted from Sept. 5 to Sept. 7, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

446 September 21, 2008

Gallup Daily: Obama Leading McCain by 4 Points

Voter preferences similar to Saturday, when Obama led by 6 points

Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain in national voter preferences for the presidential election, now by a four percentage point margin, 49% to 45%

Until now, Obama had advanced on McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking each day this past week, with the start of that trend coinciding with the news of Lehman Brothers' imminent bankruptcy on Sunday, Sept. 14. Obama's position versus McCain shifted from a two-point deficit in voter preferences in Monday's report (tracking interviews from Sept. 12-14, 2008), to a two-point advantage on Wednesday, a four-point lead on Thursday and a six-point lead on Saturday.

Today's report, based on interviewing conducted Sept. 18-20 (Thursday through Saturday), marks the first day since the start of Obama's recent ascent that his lead over McCain has not increased.

From a broader perspective, the race has been relatively close all year, with neither candidate achieving as much as a 10-point lead. Obama's record high nine-point lead came in late July (following his trip to Europe and the Middle East). He also held an eight-point lead right after the Democratic National Convention in late August. McCain's best performance came in late April/early May when he led Obama by six-points. More recently, his best showing has been with five-point leads, immediately following the Republican National Convention in early September. -- Lydia Saad

447

(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general election results are based on combined data from Sept. 18-20, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,720 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Hispanics See Their Situation in U.S. Deteriorating

Large Majorities Oppose Most Key Immigration Enforcement Measures

September 18, 2008

448

This pessimism is especially prevalent among immigrants, who account for 54% of all Hispanic adults in the United States. Fully 63% of these Latino immigrants say that the situation of Latinos has worsened over the past year. In 2007, just 42% of all adult Hispanic immigrants -- and just 33% of all Hispanic adults -- said the same thing.

These increasingly downbeat assessments come at a time when the Hispanic community in this country -- numbering approximately 46 million, or 15.4% of the total U.S. civilian non-institutional population -- has been hit hard by rising unemployment1 and stepped-up immigration enforcement.

In the survey, nearly one-in-ten Hispanic adults -- native-born U.S. citizens (8%) and immigrants (10%) alike -- report that in the past year the police or other authorities have stopped them and asked them about their immigration status.

Some Latinos are experiencing other difficulties because of their ethnicity. One-in-seven (15%) say that they have had trouble in the past year finding or keeping a job because they are Latino. One-in-ten (10%) report the same about finding or keeping housing.

On the question of immigration enforcement, Latinos disapprove of all five enforcement measures asked about in this survey -- and generally do so by lopsided margins.

More than four-in-five Hispanics (81%) say that immigration enforcement should be left mainly to the federal authorities rather than the local police; 76% disapprove of workplace raids; 73% disapprove of the criminal prosecution of undocumented immigrants who are working without authorization; and 70% disapprove of the criminal prosecution of employers who hire undocumented immigrants. A narrow majority (53%)

449 disapproves of a requirement that employers check a federal database to verify the legal immigration status of all prospective hires.

Most Latinos (63%) say that there has been an increase in the past year in immigration enforcement actions targeted at undocumented immigrants. And, in response to an open- ended question, a plurality (30%) of those who say there has been such an increase cite anti-immigrant sentiment as the biggest cause. Smaller shares cite government or policy- related measures (21%), security-related concerns (11%) or motivations related to the economy (9%).

The survey finds that a majority of Latinos worry about deportation. Some 40% say they worry a lot and an additional 17% say they worry some that they themselves, a family member or a close friend may be deported. This is up slightly from 2007, when 53% of Latino adults said that they worried a lot or some about deportation.2

Not surprisingly, worries about deportation and perceptions of discrimination in jobs or housing because of Hispanic ethnicity correlate with the view that Latinos' situation has worsened in the past year. Two-thirds (68%) of Latinos who worry a lot that they or someone close to them may be deported say that Latinos' situation in the country today is worse than it was a year ago, as do 63% of Latinos who have experienced job difficulties because of their ethnicity and 71% of Latinos who report housing difficulties because of their ethnicity.

450 Hispanics are an important voting group in the November 4th election, and their widespread pessimism about the situation of Latinos as well as their strong opposition to federal enforcement policies could well have consequences in the political arena.

About half (49%) of all Latinos say that the Democratic Party has more concern for Hispanics, while just 7% say the Republican Party has more concern. Since 2004, the share of Hispanics who say that the Democratic Party has more concern for Hispanics has increased by 14 percentage points. Most of this gain for the Democrats comes from a reduction in the share of Latinos who say there is no difference between the parties.

Among Hispanics who are registered voters, a majority say that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is the better candidate for Hispanics (55%) and for immigrants (50%). Just 11% of Hispanic registered voters say that Republican presidential nominee John McCain is better for Hispanics, and just 12% say he is better for immigrants. The remainder see no difference between the two candidates on this front. Overall, Hispanic registered voters support Obama over McCain by 66% to 23%.3

This report is based on a bilingual telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 2,015 Hispanics ages 18 and older. Interviews were conducted from June 9 to July 13, 2008. The margin of error of the survey is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

September 16, 2008

Gallup Daily: Little Change Yet in Americans' View of Economy

Americans remain negative, but not significantly more so

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on Americans' views of the U.S. economy finds little significant change compared to the Monday's report. Today's three-day rolling average includes interviewing on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and shows that 79% of Americans believe the U.S. economy is getting worse, while 16% feel it is getting better.

451

Today's average on the "getting worse" measure is only a couple of points worse than the reports for the prior three days -- 77% said the economy was getting worse in each report.

Additionally, the three-day average shows that 42% of Americans rate the economy as "poor", which is up slightly from Monday's report, but no different than what was measured as recently as last Friday's report including interviews from Sept. 9-11.

Putting all of the data together, the Gallup Poll Daily tracking average shows that 10% of Americans can be classified as positive in their economic views, 18% as mixed, and 70% negative. That is essentially unchanged from Monday's report.

452

An examination of single-night interviewing from Monday night, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 500 points and Sunday's financial calamities dominated the news, does not reflect a dramatic downturn in either views of the current economy nor perceptions about the direction of the economy.

As the week progresses, Americans' views of the economy may change further -- particularly if the Dow Jones average continues to fall, or if further problems in the banking industry are reflected in the news. For the moment, however, Gallup's tracking data do not suggest that Monday's financial news caused an immediate downturn in the American public's views of the economy.

Survey Methods

Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008. The economic questions analyzed in this report are asked of a random half-sample of respondents. The results reported here are based on combined data from 1,517 interviews conducted Sept. 13-15, 2008. For results based on this sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

453 Africa

September 18, 2008

Middle East/North Africa Relies on Many News Sources

National and international TV most important in region

Gallup Polls conducted between 2005 and 2008 across the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region reveal that citizens rely on many types of media to receive information about other countries.

When asked which types of media are "very important" in keeping them well-informed about events in other countries, respondents in the MENA region are most likely to cite international television, followed by national television. Newspapers are a distant third, and even fewer respondents mention the Internet, word of mouth, and international and national radio.

Egypt, Palestinian Territories, and Saudi Arabia

In Egypt, the Palestinian Territories, and Saudi Arabia, more respondents consider international television the most important medium for keeping them informed about world events more than any other source. However, there are differences among these countries concerning other media.

454

In Egypt, 62% of respondents say international television is the most important medium they use to keep well-informed about events in other countries, and 55% consider national television to be very important in keeping them informed. In the Palestinian Territories, respondents identify a clear preference for international television (78%), with national radio, international radio, newspapers, and national television considered very important by roughly 45% of those surveyed. Many Saudis also consider international television a very important source (82%), followed by newspapers (64%). Roughly 40% consider international radio, national television, and word of mouth to be very important.

Turkey and Iran

Reliance on national television is significantly more pronounced than all other media in Turkey and Iran, where 79% of Turks and 75% of Iranians view it as a very important source of news about other countries.

455

Considerably fewer respondents, 38% of Turks and 47% of Iranians, identified newspapers as very important sources of world news. Forty-two percent of Iranians consider national radio very important, while only 12% of Turks do. Unlike the predominantly Arab states surveyed, only 17% of Iranians and 15% of Turks find international television to be a very important source of information about other countries.

Bottom Line

While Turks and Iranians view their own national television as very important above all other media for news about other countries, this trend does not continue in other countries in the MENA region. In Egypt, and especially in the Palestinian Territories and Saudi Arabia, many residents view multiple media as very important. Most notably, citizens in these nations rely on international television to a degree that is absent in Iran and Turkey.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with at least 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, administered in Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, the Palestinian Territories, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical

456 difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Kenyans Trust Coalition Government to Last

September 15, 2008

Kenyans voted in presidential and legislative elections in December 2007. Official results gave incumbent Mwai Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU) 46.64 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by opposition candidate Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) with 44.28 per cent.

On Sept. 8, Odinga reprimanded members of his ODM party who want to create a "Grand Opposition" to the coalition government, saying, "Do not try to split the party. You cannot join hands with members of other parties and still purport to be in ODM. We cannot have members who score in our own goal after we pass the ball to them. (...) There are things which are unique to the party and cannot be shared. These are held by all MPs both in Government and the Backbench. We must have our MPs in the backbench and not as an opposition."

Polling Data

How long do you expect the grand coalition government to last?

Less than one year 6%

At least one year 18%

Until the next presidential elections are held 56%

457 Not sure / Refused 21%

Source: Gallup Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,200 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Jun. 19 to Jul. 9, 2008. No margin of error was provided.

East Asia

September 17, 2008

Japanese Consumer Confidence Crumbling

More than three in four Japanese think economy is getting worse

The bad news keeps coming for Japan's economy: Japanese banks experienced their largest sell-off Tuesday since the 1987 "Black Monday" market crash, and the government reported late last week that the economy suffered its sharpest contraction in seven years in the second quarter. A recent Gallup Poll in Japan finds consumer confidence disintegrating during the same quarter, with more than three in four Japanese (77%) in June and July saying that economic conditions are getting worse.

Japanese consumers this summer were more pessimistic about the economic situation than they were in March, when two in three residents told Gallup that they thought economic conditions were getting worse. Household spending began to skid in March,

458 and in the following months, Japanese households and companies continued to cut spending, and the economy shrank 3% in the second quarter.

Japanese appear to be starting to feel the pinch from slow wage growth and the rising fuel and food costs that have put a damper on their spending. The percentage of Japanese consumers who tell Gallup their standard of living is getting worse is now the highest it has been since 2005.

The Japanese are also likely mindful of a global economic downturn, particularly considering the economic concerns in the United States. Japanese consumers were less pessimistic about their economy than their U.S. counterparts were in the second quarter, but it's important to note that the that the gap between the percentage of Americans saying U.S. economic conditions are getting worse and the percentage of Japanese saying their economy is getting worse is continuing to narrow.

459

Volatility All Around

Japanese consumers exhibit little faith in their nation's economy and do not place much stock in the performance of their leadership either. Only 29% of Japanese surveyed in June and July, about two months before Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's sudden resignation on Sept. 1, said they approved of the country's leadership. Fukuda's departure marks the second leadership change in as many years for Japan, and the volatility could be contributing to citizens' ratings of their leadership.

460

When surveyed in August 2007, soon after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a huge defeat in upper house elections and shortly before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation, 32% of Japanese said they approved of the country's leadership. This figure represented a huge loss in support for the LDP, in comparison with the 51% approval rating measured in 2005, near the end of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's five years in office.

Looking Ahead

Fukuda's surprise resignation two weeks ago forced the LDP to call an election for his replacement. The winner of Monday's election will likely become the country's next prime minister -- that is, until the next general election, which is expected to be called soon. The faltering economy, in tandem with Japanese citizens' displeasure with their country's leadership, will likely dominate the next prime minister's agenda, and could spell further trouble for the LDP in the general elections.

As their country teeters dangerously close to economic recession, Gallup Polls find many Japanese consumers increasingly fed up with the economic situation and unhappy with their leadership's performance. The next prime minister of Japan, whoever that may be, will face the daunting tasks of finding a way to reinvigorate one of the world's largest economies and restore citizens' confidence in their government.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 adults living in Japan, aged 15 and older, conducted in November 2005 and August 2007, and 750 adults

461 in March 2008 and 750 adults in June-July 2008. For results based on the total samples of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points for a sample of 750 and ±3 percentage points for samples of 1,000. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Argentines Blame Government for Inflation

September 20, 2008

Retailers and companies who seek to make more profits than they should are second on the list with 27 per cent, followed by the laws of supply and demand with five per cent.

In January 2007, Néstor Kirchner replaced Graciela Bevacqua—the official in charge of calculating inflation—which led to allegations of data manipulation. Argentina’s official inflation numbers have been questioned ever since by retailers, bankers, investors and politicians. They all suggest that inflation is much higher than the government cares to admit.

In July, the president named Sergio Massa as her new cabinet chief of staff. Massa vowed to restore the credibility of Argentina’s Statistics Agency (INDEC).

On Sept. 10, INDEC said that annual inflation dropped from 9.1 per cent to 9.0 per cent in August.

Mario Blejer, Argentina’s former Central Bank president, said earlier this month that the bank cannot solve inflation woes if it lacks real data to work with, stating that there is a "credibility problem with the official figures," and adding, "I don’t know how much real inflation is, and that’s a problem."

Polling Data

Who do you think is primarily responsible for price increases?

462 The government, for its economic policies 54%

Retailers and companies who seek to make more profits than they should 27%

The laws of supply and demand 5%

Other 5%

Not sure / No answer 9%

Source: UCA / TNS Gallup Methodology: Interviews with 1,005 Argentinean adults, conducted from Aug. 21 to Aug. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Pacific

Australians Back Carbon Reduction Scheme

September 19, 2008

Rudd signed the Kyoto Protocol immediately after being sworn in, delivering on one of his electoral promises. In March 2008, the Kyoto Protocol came into effect. In July, the Rudd government introduced its Green Paper, a proposal to curb polluting emissions.

On Sept. 10, after reviewing the Green Paper, the government said it will implement a "Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme." The plan will include a carbon emissions trading

463 system that will help reduce pollution "in a responsible and flexible manner and at the lowest possible cost." The mechanism will apply to stationary energy, transport, fugitive emissions, industrial processes, and the waste and forestry sectors.

Polling Data

Thinking now about the environment, in particular, the federal government’s proposed carbon pollution reduction scheme. This aims to limit total carbon emissions by giving businesses a permit to release up to a certain amount of emissions. Do you believe the carbon pollution scheme could help slow global warming?

Yes 59%

No 31%

Uncommitted 10%

Under the carbon pollution reduction scheme, the price of energy sources, such as petrol, electricity and gas, may become more expensive. Would you personally be in favour or against paying more for energy sources, such as petrol, electricity and gas, if it would help to slow global warming?

In favour 58%

Against 38%

Uncommitted 4%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,202 Australian adults, conducted from Sept. 5 to Sept. 7, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Global Poll

All Countries in BBC Poll Prefer Obama to McCain

September 9, 2008

All 22 countries in a BBC World Service poll would prefer Democratic nominee Barack Obama elected US president instead of his Republican rival John McCain. Obama is preferred by a four to one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled.

The margin in favour of Obama ranges from just 9 per cent in India to 82 per cent in Kenya. On average 49 per cent prefer Obama to 12 per cent preferring McCain. Nearly four in ten do not take a position.

464 The poll also explored the expected impact of the US election. In 17 of the 22 countries surveyed the most common view is that, if Barack Obama is elected president, America's relations with the rest of the world are likely to get better. If John McCain is elected, the most common view in 19 countries is that relations will stay about the same as they are now.

On average 46 per cent think that US relations with the world would get better with Obama, 22 per cent that relations would stay the same, and 7 per cent that they would get worse. However only 20 per cent think relations would get better under McCain. The largest number - 37 per cent - think relations under a McCain presidency would stay the same and 16 per cent think they would get worse.

The countries most optimistic that an Obama presidency would improve relations are America's NATO allies - Canada (69%), France (62%), Germany (61%), United Kingdom (54%), Italy (64%) - as well as Australia (62%) and the African countries Kenya (87%) and Nigeria (71%).

Despite the preference for an Obama victory in all countries, significant proportions in several said they do not favor either candidate, favour both equally or do not know which would be preferable. This was particularly the case in Russia, where 75 per cent do not express a preference between the candidates, but also in Turkey (63%) and Egypt (61%).

When asked whether the election as US president of Barack Obama, an African- American man, would "fundamentally change" their perception of the United States, 46 per cent said it would while 27 per cent said that it would not.

The US public was polled separately and Americans also believe an Obama presidency would improve US relations with the world more than a McCain presidency, with 46 per cent of Americans expecting relations to be improved with Obama's election and 30 per cent with McCain's.

The results are drawn from a survey of 22,531 adult citizens across 22 countries conducted for the BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan together with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. A parallel poll surveyed 1,000 US adult citizens. GlobeScan coordinated fieldwork between July 8, 2008 and August 27, 2008.

GlobeScan Chairman Doug Miller comments, "Large numbers of people around the world clearly like what Barack Obama represents.

"Given how negative America's international image is at present, it is quite striking that only one in five think a McCain presidency would improve on the Bush Administration's relations with the world."

465 The poll is part of the BBC's coverage of the 2008 US presidential elections. The BBC will be bringing a unique perspective to the race by having radio, tv and online journalists reporting from a bus travelling across America over the coming weeks. Among the reporters on the bus will be those from the BBC's Arabic, Hindi and Russian language services (www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/bbcworld).

America's global image has suffered in recent years. A BBC World Service Poll earlier this year showed that an average of 49 per cent of people in countries surveyed have a negative view of US influence in the world compared to 32 per cent who view it positively.

A similar poll conducted for BBC World Service by GlobeScan ahead of the 2004 US presidential election found that, of 35 countries polled, 30 preferred to see Democratic nominee John Kerry, rather than incumbent George Bush, elected president. At the time, the Philippines, Nigeria and Poland were among the few countries to favour Bush's re- election. All three now favour Barack Obama over John McCain.

Participating Countries

Note: In Brazil, China, Egypt, Lebanon, Mexico, Panama, the Philippines, Turkey, and UAE urban samples were used. Please see page 6 for details.

Detailed Findings

The countries with the largest majorities favouring Obama as US president are Kenya (87%), Italy (76%), France (69%), Australia (67%), Canada (66%), and Germany (65%). While no country has more favouring McCain, in five countries the largest numbers do not take a position either way and thus the per cent in favour of Obama is fairly small. These include Russia (18% for Obama), Singapore (29%), Turkey (26%), India (24%), and Egypt (26%).

Demographically, Obama support worldwide tends to be strongest amongst youth and the more educated, but the differences are not dramatic. He enjoys 51 per cent support among those under 35 years of age and 47 per cent support from those aged 55 and older. Likewise he

466 has the support of 61 per cent of those with university education and 40 per cent of those with only primary education.

The levels of support for McCain range from 5 per cent in Kenya to 27 per cent in Lebanon (where 39% support Obama).

While people in most countries think that an Obama presidency would improve relations with the world, three predominantly Muslim countries are among those least likely to say so. The most common view in Turkey is that relations even under an Obama presidency would get worse (28%), while the most common view is that relations would stay the same in Egypt (34%) and Lebanon (42%). This is also the most common view in Russia (22%) and Singapore (28%). However, of these, only Singapore and Turkey have a more positive view of the impact of a McCain presidency.

In no country do most people think that a McCain presidency would worsen relations. But the view that he would actually improve relations is the most common view in only three countries and in all of them it is by a modest margin: in China (31%) feel this way, India (35%), and Nigeria (31%).

Americans tend to share the predominant view expressed in other countries that an Obama presidency would improve US relations with the world, with 46 per cent taking that position, 19 per cent saying that relations would stay the same and 27 per cent saying they would get worse. Also similar to the rest of the world, the most common view (held by 41% of Americans) is that relations would remain the same under a McCain presidency, while 30 per cent of Americans think they would get better and 22 per cent that they would get worse.

In fifteen countries the dominant position was that, because Obama is an African- American, if he were to be elected it would fundamentally change their perception of the United States. Not surprisingly it would have the biggest impact on Kenyans (85%) and Nigerians (69%). But large numbers also say they would be impressed in Egypt (65%) and America's neighbours/allies Mexico (60%), Australia (59%), and Canada (54%). In only two countries do majorities say that it would not fundamentally affect their view of America--Poland (59%) and Lebanon (51%), while a plurality take this position in Turkey (40%) and Russia (26%). In three others, views are divided on this question-- Italy, Singapore, and Brazil.

In total 23,531 citizens in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany,

467 India, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, Panama, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Turkey, the UAE, the UK and the USA were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone in July and August 2008. Polling was conducted for the BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan and its research partners in each country. In 9 of the 23 countries, the sample was limited to major urban areas. The margin of error per country ranges from +/-2.4 to 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Unfavorable Views of Both Jews and Muslims Increase in Europe

September 17, 2008

Ethnocentric attitudes are on the rise in Europe. Growing numbers of people in several major European countries say they have an unfavorable opinion of Jews, and opinions of Muslims, which were already substantially more negative, have also grown increasingly so compared with several years ago.

A spring 2008 survey by the Pew Research Center's Pew Global Attitudes Project finds 46% of the Spanish rating Jews unfavorably. More than a third of Russians (34%) and Poles (36%) echo this view. Somewhat fewer, but still significant numbers of the Germans (25%) and French (20%) interviewed also express negative opinions of Jews. These percentages are all higher than obtained in comparable Pew surveys taken in recent years. In a number of countries, the increase has been especially notable between 2006 and 2008.

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Great Britain stands out as the only European country included in the survey where there has not been a substantial increase in anti-Semitic attitudes. Just 9% of the British rate Jews unfavorably, which is largely unchanged from recent years. And relatively small percentages in both Australia (11%) and the United States (7%) continue to view Jews unfavorably.

Opinions about Muslims in almost all of these countries are considerably more negative than are views of Jews. Fully half of Spanish (52%) and German respondents (50%) rate Muslims unfavorably. Opinions about Muslims are somewhat less negative in Poland (46%) and considerably less negative in France (38%). About one-in-four in Britain and the United States (23% each) also voice unfavorable views of Muslims. Overall, there is a clear relationship between anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim attitudes: publics that view Jews unfavorably also tend to see Muslims in a negative light.

The trend in negative views toward Muslims in Europe has occurred over a longer period of time than growing anti-Jewish sentiment. Most of the upswing took place between 2004 and 2006, and there has even been a slight decrease in some countries since 2006.

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Negative attitudes toward Christians in Europe are less common than negative ratings of Muslims or Jews. And views about Christians have remained largely stable in recent years, although anti-Christian sentiments have been on the rise in Spain -- about one-in- four Spanish (24%) now rate Christians negatively, up from 10% in 2005. Similarly, in France 17% now hold an unfavorable view of Christians, compared with 9% in 2004.

A notable parallel between anti-Muslim and anti-Jewish opinion in Western Europe is that both sentiments are most prevalent among the same groups of people. Older people and those with less education are more anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim than are younger people or those with more education. Looking at combined data from France, Germany and Spain -- the three Western European countries where unfavorable opinions of Jews are most common -- people ages 50 and older express more negative views of both Jews and Muslims than do those younger than 50. Similarly, Europeans who have not attended college are consistently more likely than those who have to hold unfavorable opinions of both groups.

There are some political parallels too. Anti-Muslim and anti-Jewish opinions are most prevalent among Europeans on the political right. For example, among respondents from France, Germany and Spain who place themselves on the political right, 56% express a negative view of Muslims, compared with 42% of those on the left and 45% of those in

470 the center. Similarly, 34% of people on the political right have a negative opinion of Jews, compared with 28% of those on the left and 26% of centrists.

These are among the latest findings from the 2008 Pew Global Attitudes survey. The current report focuses on findings related to religion, and several sections are devoted specifically to issues among Muslim publics. The polling was conducted March-April 2008 in 24 countries from regions throughout the world1.1

Widespread Religiosity

In most of the countries included in the survey, religion is considered a central feature of life. However, this is often less true among younger people. In many nations, including the United States, people under age 40 are less likely than others to say religion is very important to them.

And there is also a notable gender gap in many nations regarding religion's importance. Consistently, women are more likely than men to say religion plays a very important role in their lives. Among the countries on the survey, the largest gender gap is in the United States, where 65% of women rate religion as very important, compared with only 44% of men.

Muslim Views On Terrorism

The decline in support for terrorism observed in Pew Global Attitudes surveys over the last few years continues this year among Muslims in Nigeria, Turkey and Pakistan. Elsewhere, there has been virtually no change, or in the case of Egypt, a slight increase in support for terrorism.

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Since 2002, the percentage saying that suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilians are justified to defend Islam from its enemies has declined in most predominantly Muslim countries surveyed. For instance, in 2002 roughly three-in-four Lebanese Muslims (74%) said such attacks could often or sometimes be justified; today, 32% take this view.

Opinions about Osama bin Laden have followed a similar trend. For instance, only three years ago, about six-in-ten (61%) Jordanian Muslims voiced at least some confidence in the al Qaeda leader; today, just 19% express a positive view. In 2003, 20% of Lebanese Muslims and 15% of Turkish Muslims had positive views of bin Laden. Today, seven years after the September 11 attacks, bin Laden's ratings have plummeted to the low single digits in both countries (Turkey 3%, Lebanon 2%). Still, substantial numbers of Muslims continue to express confidence in bin Laden in Nigeria (58%), Indonesia (37%) and Pakistan (34%).

Conflict in the Muslim World

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Most Muslims in the nations surveyed by Pew continue to worry about the rise of Islamic extremism, both at home and abroad. Majorities in Indonesia, Pakistan, Tanzania, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan and Nigeria say they are concerned about extremism in their own country and in other countries around the world.

Many are also concerned about growing tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims. There is a widespread perception that Sunni-Shia tensions are not limited to Iraq and instead are a broader problem affecting the Muslim world more generally.

Large numbers of Muslims in several countries surveyed also see a struggle taking place within their countries between Islamic fundamentalists and those who want to modernize the nation. In Turkey, in particular, a large and growing majority sees such a conflict taking place, but this view also is common in Lebanon, Tanzania, Indonesia and Pakistan.

Additional Findings

France stands out as the most secular nation included in the survey. Only one-in-ten in that country consider religion very important in their lives and 60% say they never pray.

While European views towards Jews have become more negative, the deepest anti-Jewish sentiments exist outside of Europe, especially in predominantly Muslim nations. The percentage of Turks, Egyptians, Jordanians, Lebanese and Pakistanis with favorable opinions of Jews is in the single digits.

473 Two pillars of Islam are commonly practiced by the Muslims surveyed: prayer and fasting. Majorities in most of the eight Muslim publics included pray five times a day and fast most days of Ramadan.

Views of Hamas tend to be negative in Lebanon, Turkey, and Egypt. Jordan is the only predominantly Muslim country surveyed in which a majority express a positive view of the militant Palestinian organization.

Views of the militant Lebanese Shia organization Hezbollah are overwhelmingly negative in Turkey, while slim majorities in Egypt and Jordan express positive views of Hezbollah. In Lebanon itself, Hezbollah is almost unanimously popular among the country's Shia community, but is overwhelmingly unpopular among Sunnis and Christians.

Saudi Arabia receives positive ratings from most of the publics in the predominantly Muslim countries surveyed, although Turkey is an exception; 43% of Turks express an unfavorable view of Saudi Arabia, while just 36% hold a favorable view.

474 Sources Sources list for Sub Saharan Africa

Sources for the whole Name of country Sources for countries region Zimbabwe Mauritius www.afrobarometer.org Gabon www.rms-africa.com Botswana http://pewglobal.org South Africa www.markinor.co.za www.gallup-international.com www.sun.ac.az/arts www.gallup.com Namibia www.pipa.org Cape Verde Swaziland Congo, Rep. Angola Cote d'Ivoire Cameroon Lesotho Senegal Guinea Benin http://www.steadman- Kenya group.com www.infieldresearch.co.ke Zambia Nigeria Gambia, The Tanzania Ghana Togo Central African Republic Uganda Madagascar Mali Rwanda Chad Mozambique Niger Eritrea Malawi Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sierra Leone Burundi Ethiopia Congo, Dem. Rep.

475 Sources list for Arab World

Sources for the whole Name of country Sources for countries region Bahrain Iraq www.ka.com.tr www.gallup-international.com Kuwait http://pewglobal.org Libya www.zogby.com Oman www.pipa.org Saudi Arabia www.globescan.org Lebanon http://www.lebaneseopinion.org/ Tunisia Jordan http://www.jcss.org/ Algeria Comoros Egypt, Arab Rep. http:://www.idsc.gov.eg Morocco Syrian Arab Republic West Bank and Gaza http://www.awrad.org/ Djibouti Yemen, Rep. Qatar United Arab Emirates Somalia Sudan Mauritania Palestine http://home.birzeit.edu/dsp/ http://www.najah.edu/ http://www.pcpsr.org/index.html

476 Sources for West Asia

Sources for the whole Name of country Sources for the country region Afghanistan www.asiabarometer.org Turkey www.frekans.com.tr www.asiafoundation.org www.akademetre.com www.iri.org Iran, Islamic Rep. www.gallup-international.com Kazakhstan http://pewgloblal.org Turkmenistan www.galllup.com Azerbaijan Uzbekistan Pakistan www.gallup.com.pk http://www.pk.nielsen.com Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan

Sources for Japan and South Korea

Sources for the whole Name of country Sources for the country region Japan http://mansfieldfdn.org http://mansfieldfdn.org www.asiabarometer.org www.asiabarometer.org South Korea

477 Sources for South Asia

Sources for the whole Name of country Sources for countries region Maldives Sri Lanka www.asiabarometer.org Bhutan www.asiafoundation.org India www.datasearchindia.com www.gallup-international.com http://www.rms- africa.com/india.htm http://pewglobal.org Bangladesh www.globescan.org Nepal www.pipa.org Burma/Myanmar

Sources for East Asia

Sources for the whole Name of country Sources for countries region Brunei Macao, China www.asiabarometer.org Timor-Leste www.asianbarometer.org Hong Kong, China http://hkupop.hku.hk/ www.gallup-international.com Singapore http://pewglobal.org Palau www.worldpublicopinion.org Malaysia http://www.merdeka.org/ www.globescan.org Marshall Islands www.pipa.org Fiji Thailand Samoa Tonga Vanuatu Philippines http://www.sws.org.ph/ Kiribati Indonesia http://www.lsi.or.id/ http://www.lsi.co.id/ Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea Mongolia Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia

478 Sources for East Europe

Sources for the Sources for the whole Name of country countries region Slovenia Czech Republic www.mns.cz www.eurobarometer.org Hungary www.gallup-international.com Croatia www.puls.hr www.globescan.org www.pilar.hr www.pipa.org Poland www.ereste.com.pl http://pewglobal.org www.cbos.pl www.worldpublicopinion.org Estonia www.emor.ee Slovak Republic Lithuania www.vilmorus.lt Latvia Russian Federation www.levada.ru www.nikkolom.ru http://www.wciom.com/ Romania Bulgaria Macedonia, FYR Yugoslavia, Fed. Rep. Albania Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina www.mibbosnia.com http://www.gallup- bbss.com/ Armenia Ukraine www.socis.kiev.ua www.kiis.com.ua Georgia Moldova Serbia and Montenegro

479 Sources for West Europe

Name of country Sources for the countries Sources for the whole region Cyprus www.pulse.com.cy www.eurobarometer.org French Polynesia www.gallup-international.com Israel www.keevoon.com www.gallup.com http://www.imra.org.il/ http://pewglobal.org http://www.hamivhan.co.il/ www.globescan.org Malta www.pipa.org Luxembourg www.ilres.com www.worldpublicopinion.org Switzerland www.unifr.ch/mukw Norway www.synovate.no Denmark Iceland www.img.is United Kingdom www.ipsosmori.com www.opinion.co.uk www.peacepolls.org www.iser.essex.ac.uk www.pulsetrain.com http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ Sweden www.temo.se www.valuescope.com Netherlands www.claesdevreese.com www.scp.nl www.fss.uu.nl/ms/hth/index.html Ireland Finland Austria www.triconsult.at Belgium www.ua.ac.be/femke.dekeulenaer www.tns-opinion.com Germany www.uni-hohenheim/homm/ www.ifp.uni-mainz.de www.ifd-allensbach.de www.infratest-dimap.com www.kowi.wiso.uni-erlangen.de/holtz- bacha/ http:;//www.gesis.org/zuma/ www.politik.uni-due.de France Italy www.usc.urbe.it Spain www.sigmados.com Greece www.marc.gr www.rass.gr www.alcopolls.gr www.interview.com.gr Portugal

480 Sources for Latin America

Sources for the whole Name of the country Sources for countries region Trinidad and Tobago www.latinobarometer.org St. Kitts and Nevis www.gallup-international.com Mexico www.pearson-research.com http://pewglobal.org www.andresmeza.com www.worldpublicopinion.org Uruguay www.globescan.org Chile www.cerc.cl www.pipa.org www.cepchile.cl www.gallup.com.pk Costa Rica http://www.cidgallup.com Venezuela, RB www.alfredokeller.com Argentina www.equiposmori.com.ar Panama St. Lucia Grenada Dominica Belize Bermuda Guam Brazil www.ibope.com.br www.voxpopuli.com.br Jamaica St. Vincent and the Grenadines Dominican Republic El Salvador Peru www.pucp.edu.pe www.apoyo.com Suriname Colombia Guatemala Paraguay Honduras Bolivia Guyana Haiti Cuba Ecuador

481 Sources for North America

Name of Sources for the whole country Sources for the countries region www.gallup- United States international.com www.gallup.com www.field.com www.ropercenter.uconn.edu http://pewresearch.org/ http://people-press.org Same as in the countries list http://pewsocialtrends.org/ http://www.zogby.com/ http://www.pipa.org/ www.terrorfreetomorrow.org www.worldpublicopinion.org www.iri.org http://www.ncpp.org/ www.pollingreport.com/ www.thechicagocouncil.org/

Canada www.angus-reid.com www.globescan.com

482 Sources for Australasia

Sources for the whole Sources for the countries region New Caledonia www.galllup-international.com Australia www.amsrs.com.au www.gallup.com www.newspoll.com.au http://pewglobal.org www.mcnairingenuity.com www.pipa.org New Zealand www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/ www.globescan.org http://www.digipoll.co.nz/

483