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Report on Public Opinion PROJECT ON BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD Report on Public Opinion Third Quarterly Report on Public Opinion July to September 2008 Principal Investigator: Prof. Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani Contributor Muhammad Zubair Khan Research Associate INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD Report on Public Opinion Third Quarterly Report on Public Opinion July to September 2008 Department of Politics and International Relations International Islamic University Islamabad 2 BUSINESS AND POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD Report on Public Opinion Third Quarterly Report 2008 Reports for the period July to September 2008 Table of contents Reports for the month of July Week-1 July 08, 2008 04 Week-2 July 15, 2008 67 Week-3 July 22, 2008 129 Week-4 July 29, 2008 167 Reports for the month of August Week-1 August 05, 2008 203 Week-2 August 12, 2008 241 Week-3 August 19, 2008 294 Week-4 August 26, 2008 326 Reports for the month of September Week-1 September 02, 2008 362 Week-2 September 16, 2008 393 Week-3 September 23, 2008 426 Sources 475 3 Business and Politics in The Muslim World Opinion Polls Weekly Report June 16 – July 06, 2008 M. Zubair Presentation: July 08, 2008 Introduction and Brief Commentary Summary Middle East Right of Return Not Negotiable, Say Palestinians Israelis Wanted Shalit as Part of Calm Agreement East Europe Many Balkan Residents Displeased With Road Conditions Russians Convinced of Global Warming West Europe Turks Believe AKP Should Not Be Banned Britain Divided Over Identity Cards Britons Disappointed with Brown’s Government North America About One in Four Voters Are “Swing Voters” Americans Worry McCain Would Be Too Similar to Bush More See America's Loss of Global Respect as Major Problem Americans Oppose Income Redistribution to Fix Economy Confidence in U.S. Banks Down Sharply East Asia Inflation Grips Indonesians, Worries Reach Three-Year High Indonesians Champion Religious Freedom West Asia Pakistanis Urge for Dialogue with Enemies Africa Corruption is the Norm, Say South Africans Few South Africans Welcome Zimbabwe Refugees 4 Global Polls Most Publics--including Americans--Oppose Taking Sides in Israeli-Palestinian Conflict World Publics Reject Torture In More Religious Countries, Lower Suicide Rates Young Arabs Poised to Maximize Their Potential Introduction and Brief Commentary This report consists of 21 surveys. Sixteen of these surveys are of national significance while five are of global or regional importance. Political issues The frustration and the lack of confidence in leaders among Israelis and Palestinians are persistent for years. Several polls in previous months have shown this trend and the same is again visible in Israeli public demands for including Shalit release in the Calm Agreement and Palestinians desires for the right to return. International poll by worldpublicopinion.org show that publics in 19 countries want a just solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and believe it is wrong for any country to take side of any party in the conflict. This is especially true of Americans who want their country to play its role neutrally. Similar to poor confidence in leadership situation in Middle East poor ratings of British Prime Minister Brown and U.S. President Bush also show the lack of confidence in leadership of the two powers. Contrary to the above AKP is enjoying public backing in Turkey for almost seven years. The Turks are against the possible banning of AKP being alleged for its religious role and potential threat to secularism in Turkey. TFT survey of Pakistan shows that a majority of three fourth Pakistanis believe country is going in the wrong direction. PPP is losing its support while PMLN is soaring up. Favorable opinion of Nawaz Sharif has risen to 86 per cent while opinion of President Musharaf is no better then President Bush. Pakistanis are supportive of the policy of dialogue with Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters instead of launching military operation. The anti-American sentiment is prevailing in the country. A reasonable majority has negative opinion of U.S. and believes it to be threat and make it responsible for security situation in the country. 5 On the issue of torture a 19 country survey shows that public overwhelmingly rejects the use of torture even against the criminals. Only four countries: India, Nigeria, Turkey and Thailand lean towards an exception for terrorists. Pew survey finds that more than seven in ten Americans feel that U.S. image has deteriorated and it is less respected today then in the past. For the first time 56 per cent of them believe it to be a major problem. In the U.S. Presidential election Obama is having a slight edge over McCain. About half of Americans are concerned that McCain would be similar to Bush. Though few months to go, Gallup finds that a higher proportion of voters i.e. 23 per cent may be swing voters in the coming election. (Higher then previous election) This include those 6 per cent who do not have any preference between Obama and McCain and can go either way and a 17 per cent of those who currently support either McCain or Obama but say they could change their minds between now and Election Day. Economic issues Poor economic perceptions are evident in U.S, Pakistan, and Indonesia. Since earlier this year Americans have rated the country economy as poor and the perception that the economy is on decline has aggravated. Gallup last week poll shows that the confidence in U.S. bank has also declined to 32% which is quite close to decade’s lowest level of 30%. When given options Americans rejected the idea of re-distributing wealth to improve economy and favored for over all measures to help regain its strength. Respondents in Pakistan and Indonesia express their miseries in securing food in their countries badly hit by inflation. This is especially true of Pakistan where majority is facing food crisis. Under similar circumstances Zimbabweans refugees are heading towards South Africa where they are not welcomed by majority of South Africans. Social issues Roads and infrastructure is a prerequisite for socio-economic development. Majorities in Balkan states show their dissatisfaction with the road condition in their locality. Only in Croatia a majority of 63 % is satisfied with the roads condition. The situation is worse in Montenegro and Kosovo. Like many other nations Russians are also worried about global warming. A two third majority of Russians believe that the phenomenon is happening. Corruption has been a widespread problem across the world especially in the developing world. Almost 9 in 10 South African see corruption in the higher levels of their 6 government and want to remove it from their system. But now that it has become so prevalent for over years it has almost become a ‘norm’ a way of life. Tracking data of Gallup polls (2005 & 2006) show that there is an inverse relationship between religiosity and suicide rate. The countries where people are more religious, the suicide rate is low and it is high where people are more secular. Summary Middle East Right of Return Not Negotiable, Say Palestinians The vast majority of people in the West Bank and Gaza would reject giving up the so-called right of return, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion. 89.8 per cent of respondents are not willing to compromise the right to re-occupy their land in Israel in exchange for the creation of a Palestinian state and a peace agreement. July 01, 2008 Israelis Wanted Shalit as Part of Calm Agreement Adults in Israel have second thoughts about the recent agreement their government reached with Hamas, according to a poll by the Dahaf Institute published in Yediot Ahronot. 78 per cent of respondents believe the deal should have been conditioned on the release of Gilad Shalit. June 26, 2008 East Europe Many Balkan Residents Displeased With Road Conditions Gallup USA poll finds that more than half of Balkan residents are dissatisfied with the road conditions in their areas. The highest level of satisfaction is in Croatia and the highest dissatisfaction is in Montenegro. June 27, 2008 Russians Convinced of Global Warming The majority of people in Russia think global warming is a reality, according to a poll by the Public Opinion Foundation. 67 per cent of respondents believe the phenomenon is happening. June 27, 2008 7 West Europe Turks Believe AKP Should Not Be Banned The majority of people in Turkey would reject a ban on the country’s largest and ruling party, according to a poll by A&G Research. 53 per cent of respondents would oppose a potential court ruling dismantling the Justice and Development Party (AKP) for its alleged anti-secular activities. July 02, 2008 Britain Divided Over Identity Cards Adults in Britain are split over the introduction of high-end identity cards by the government, according to a poll by YouGov published in The Economist. 48 per cent of respondents think ID cards and biometric information are a good idea, while 45 per cent believe the plan is an invasion of privacy. July 02, 2008 Britons Disappointed with Brown’s Government The vast majority of people in Britain remain critical of the way Gordon Brown’s administration is handling its duties, according to a poll by YouGov. 78 per cent of respondents think the prime minister is doing badly in office, unchanged since May. June 20, 2008 North America About One in Four Voters Are “Swing Voters” According to Gallup survey, 23% of likely voters can be considered "swing voters" -- including 6% who do not have a preference between Barack Obama and John McCain for president, and 17% who currently support either McCain or Obama but say they could change their minds between now and Election Day.
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