Thesis Report

Innovative Cost Engineering Approaches, Analyses and Methods Applied to SpaceLiner – an Advanced, Hypersonic, Suborbital Spaceplane Case-Study by Olga Trivailo BEng (Hons), BCom A Thesis submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Monash University, Electrical and Computer Systems Engineering Department (ECSE), Melbourne, Australia Space Launcher Systems Analysis Department (SART), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR - German Aerospace Center, Bremen, Germany March, 2015 COPYRIGHT NOTICES Notice 1 © The author. Under the Copyright Act 1968, this thesis may not be reproduced in any form without the written permission of the author. This Thesis must be used only under the normal conditions of scholarly fair dealing. In particular, not results or conclusions should be extracted from it, nor should it be copied or closely paraphrased in whole or in part without the written consent of the author. Proper written acknowledgement should be made for any assistance obtained from this Thesis. Notice 2 I certify that I have made all reasonable efforts to secure copyright permissions for third-party content included in this thesis and have not knowingly added copyright content to my work without the owner’s permission. i ii ABSTRACT Olga Trivailo PhD Candidate, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR, Bremen, Germany. Dr. Y. Ahmet Şekercioğlu Supervisor, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia Dr. Martin Sippel Co-Supervisor, German Aerospace Center, DLR, Bremen, Germany When commencing a new program within the space sector, the question of expected program costs has emerged as a most critical criterion to be considered, especially within the context of large and highly complex international programs where multiple domains and disciplines are directly interfaced. Given added technical, economic, and political complexities, the real challenge is to representatively estimate costs during the early program phases where physical, technical, performance and programmatic parameters, requirements and specifications might be scarce, unavailable, or still evolving. Here, the disciplines of systems and cost engineering, as well as program management converge to support the costing function. Cost estimation is a subset of the cost engineering domain, and a plethora of cost estimation methods (CEMs), models, tools and resources applicable to various space sector applications, exist. However, due to the unique nature and specificity of each mission, project and respectively, program, the available arsenal of costing means can often be too general. A new class of vehicle has also recently established itself as one of prevalent interest – launcher vehicles with a focus on reusability to render them economically viable, while concurrently offering cost-effective access to space for both cargo and humans. For such manned, reusable launchers (RLVs), a lack of historical data implies that classically assuming a single cost estimate based on a single heuristic parametric or analogy cost estimation alone is, by definition, limited. Thus new ways are needed to address cost estimation for complex, iii unprecedented programs in the early program phase where system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be defined. The hypersonic, suborbital, passenger spaceplane SpaceLiner currently being studied at the German Space Center, DLR, is one such vehicle and is selected as a current RLV case-study to model and apply the advanced cost engineering approaches and innovative techniques developed and described in this work. Within the context of the case-study, the development of necessary processes and application of advanced and modified cost estimation approaches and programmatic principles is demonstrated. After a thorough literature review of current estimating practices in industry, the parametric method is justified as the prime CEM for optimal use during the early program phase. The TransCost statistical-analytical model for cost estimation and economical optimisation of launch vehicles, as well as two cost models, 4cost aces and the PRICE software, all of which are parametric, are selected. The transparent TransCost model is then extensively tested against realised development programs with an RLV focus, and consequently calibrated. Prior to the three models being input with high-level, technical SpaceLiner data, some essential programmatic analyses are performed. The SpaceLiner program is considered from a top level as a global whole, and a detailed work breakdown structure of the required components to be developed and produced, is derived. In conjunction, and in accordance with European Cooperation for Space Standardization standards, a baseline program schedule is also established in order to represent the possible timeframe of the global project, to identify major milestones, and to support model inputs for the costing process. Based on the WBS, program schedule and selected three models, independent development cost estimates are prepared, and an Amalgamation Approach of the multiple sets of results is then assumed. A final baseline development cost range is ultimately determined for the SpaceLiner, being maximally reflective of all currently available inputs. The cost of production is also considered using parametrics, while the operational scenario is qualitatively outlined, completing the SpaceLiner cost- and economics baseline. iv DECLARATION In accordance with Monash University Doctorate Regulation 17.2: Doctor of Philosophy and Research Master’s Regulations, the following declarations are made: In hereby declare that this Thesis contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at any university or equivalent institution and that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, this thesis contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference is made in the text of the Thesis. The core theme of the Thesis is a new cost estimation methodology and approach within the systems engineering framework, focusing on estimating development and production costs for large, complex space systems during the early program phase. The ideas, development and writing up of all work contained in the Thesis were the principal responsibility of myself, the candidate, from the Department of Electrical and Computer Systems Engineering (ECSE) under the supervision of Dr. Y. Ahmet Şekercioğlu, and in cooperation with the co-supervisor, Dr. Martin Sippel, head of the department of Space Launcher Systems Analysis (SART) at the German Aerospace Center, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), in Bremen, Germany. Olga Trivailo March, 2015 v vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Retrospectively, the PhD journey is one of oscillating sinusoids. Distinguished by peaks of excitement, exhilaration and an ultimate feeling of achievement, the sinusoid is consistently punctuated and skewed by troughs of challenges, exhaustion, despair and infuriating frustration. However, like our oscillating sinusoid paradigm, when combined, the standalone peaks and single troughs somehow synergise into a melodious and unique little sound-wave – albeit a seemingly insignificant one in the grand scheme of things. But what is beautiful music made of other than from a collection of those same sound-waves, big and little? Contributing but a peep to the symphony of knowledge is most certainly worth traversing that aforementioned journey. During this PhD phase the peaks were greatly enhanced and the troughs gently dampened by the involvement of some exceptional people. Firstly, I would like to thank my two most outstanding Supervisors, Dr. Martin Sippel and Dr. Y. Ahmet Şekercioğlu, for their unwavering and ongoing support, always wise advice, calming counsel, careful guidance and continued understanding and unwavering encouragement, especially during the challenging times. Furthermore, my sincerest gratitude extends to my distinguished advisor and mentor, Prof. Dr. Bernd Madauss, as well as Mr. Joachim Schöffer, Mr. Herbert Spix, Dr. Fabian Eilingsfeld and Dr. Dietrich E. Koelle for their invaluable input and for so generously sharing their time, expertise and wealth of experience and knowledge to enrich my own understanding. A heartfelt thanks must also be expressed to all my wonderful friends, peers and colleagues, whose staunch support, patience and unconditional understanding were both an incredible motivational driver and an absolutely crucial contributing factor to the ultimate completion of this PhD – I trust that you all know well who you awesome people are. And finally, to my tiny yet very precious little family circle which so devastatingly diminished during the years that it took to complete this Thesis - even though you may not be with me because of a distance, geographical and divine, I carry you in my heart wherever I may be, always, forever and indelibly so. This particular PhD Thesis and work is, in every way, for you. vii viii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables xv List of Figures xxi Nomenclature xxv Superscripts and Subscripts xxxi 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Focus of Thesis 3 1.2 Research motivation 3 1.3 Problem Definition 5 1.4 Organisation of Thesis 5 1.5 Contribution of Dissertation 7 1.6 Publications 9 2 COST ESTIMATION IN THE SPACE DOMAIN 10 2.1 Cost versus Price 19 2.2 Space Sector Cost Engineering & Estimation 20 2.2.1 Cost Estimation in a Cost Engineering Framework 20 2.3 Cost Risk Assessment & Uncertainties 23 2.3.1 Cost

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