From Leader to Laggard: The Development of Wind Power in Russia Thesis Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Jared James Dye, B.A. Graduate Program in Slavic and East European Studies The Ohio State University 2017 Thesis Committee: Nicholas Breyfogle, Advisor David Hoffmann Copyright by Jared James Dye 2017 Abstract The installed capacity of renewable energy is increasing in the developed and developing worlds alike. Yet, the share of renewable energy (excluding large hydroelectric power stations) remains below one percent of the energy mix in Russia. Over the past century, (Soviet) Russia has been among the global leaders in developing and implementing hydroelectric, nuclear, and fossil fuel technology. Why has Russia been on the cutting edge of so many energy sources, both traditional and alternative, yet lags so far behind its peers in renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and geothermal energy? Through a case study analysis of wind energy, this thesis argues that renewable energy in Russia has not taken off relative to the country’s peers due to a lack of strategic necessity and subsequent political will from the Russian elite. The economic, political, and cultural factors that drove the development of hydropower, nuclear energy, oil, and natural gas are absent for renewable energy. That being said, while large-scale, commercial wind projects have been generally absent, small-scale turbine installations in communities isolated from the unified power grid have begun to emerge with success. This thesis is divided into two major sections. The first section analyzes how Russia got to the energy mix it has today by examining the literature on the origins and development of coal, hydropower, oil, natural gas, and nuclear energy for electricity production since the turn of the twentieth century. Following the history of these ii energy sources, this research examines the opinions from political and business elites in Russia on the topic of renewable energy and analyzes the renewable energy support scheme introduced in 2013. The second section examines the development of renewable energy in Russia using wind energy as a case study. Specifically, the analysis focuses on planned and implemented wind power installations in three Russian federal districts: the Russian Far East, Northwest, and South. This thesis offers a unique contribution to the literature by synthesizing information on multiple wind projects across the country and identifying common strategic, political, and economic themes among them. iii Acknowledgments I would like to thank my advisor, Nicholas Breyfogle, for his guidance, advice, and support throughout the research and writing stages of this thesis. I would also like to thank Nicole Freeman for proofreading the document and for her constant support. iv Vita 2008................................................................Mount Vernon Community High School, Mount Vernon, Iowa 2012................................................................B.A. Russian, Grinnell College 2012-2013 ......................................................Fulbright English-Teaching Assistantship, Russia 2014-2015 ......................................................University Fellowship, The Ohio State University 2015-2016 ......................................................Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship, Polish, The Ohio State University 2016-2017 ......................................................Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship, Polish, The Ohio State University Fields of Study Major Field: Slavic and East European Studies v Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. iv Vita ...................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: History of Energy Use in Russia ....................................................................... 6 Coal ................................................................................................................................. 7 Hydropower ..................................................................................................................... 8 Nuclear Energy .............................................................................................................. 13 Natural Gas and Oil ....................................................................................................... 16 Elite Views on Renewable Energy in Russia ................................................................ 19 The Russian Renewable Energy Support Scheme ........................................................ 26 Chapter 3: Wind Power in Russia ..................................................................................... 31 vi A Brief History of Wind Power .................................................................................... 32 Wind Power in Russia’s Regions .................................................................................. 36 Chapter 4: Conclusion....................................................................................................... 54 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 57 vii List of Tables Table 1. Installed Wind Capacity (MW) of BRICS Nations, the United States, & Canada............................................................................................................................... 34 viii List of Figures Figure 1. Global Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity ..................................................... 33 Figure 2. Locations of Selected Installed and Planned Wind Energy Stations in the Southern, Northwestern, and Far Eastern Federal Districts .............................................. 37 ix Chapter 1: Introduction There is overwhelming confidence in the scientific community that climate change in the past century has been to an appreciable degree a result of human activity through the emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane. Greenhouse gases—many the result of burning fossil fuels—are at levels in the atmosphere unseen in the last 800,000 years and are warming the planet, causing acidification of the oceans, reductions in sea ice, rise in sea level, species decline, and increased likelihood for extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, and storms.1 As a result, many governments, environmental groups, and concerned individuals are calling for greater use of renewable energy sources instead of fossil fuels as a way to slow down global climate change. After China, the United States, and the European Union, Russia is tied with India as the fourth largest emitter in the world at about 6% of total greenhouse gas emissions.2 Is Russia answering the call to install more “zero- emission” renewable power stations? Compared to its international peers, the answer is emphatically “no.” In Russia since the beginning of the twentieth century, fossil fuels (e.g. coal, oil, and natural gas) have competed with energy alternatives such as hydropower and nuclear 1 IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. T. Stockton (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013). 2 “Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, accessed April 18, 2017, https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data. 1 power. Still, the latter two have managed to create and hold sizeable shares of Russia’s modern energy mix as a result of resource availability and, more importantly, political lobbying on their behalf. According to the International Energy Agency, as of 2012, about 49%, 16%, and 3% of Russian total electricity production comes from natural gas, coal, and oil, respectively. Nuclear energy and hydro power make up nearly all of the rest with 17% and 15%, respectively. Most of the increase in energy capacity since 2002 came in the form of gas-fired and nuclear power plants, which increased by 37% and 25%, respectively. Renewable energy sources (RES)3 account for less than 1% of electricity production and this share has increased negligibly since 2000.4 Why has Russia been on the cutting edge of so many energy sources, both traditional and alternative, yet lags so far behind its peers in renewable energy sources (RES) like solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal energy? This paper argues that renewable energy in Russia has not taken off due to a lack of strategic necessity and subsequent political will from the country’s elite. The economic, political, and cultural factors that drove the development of hydropower, nuclear energy, oil, and natural gas