AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FORUM OVERVIEW Africa’s Demographic Transition Dividend or Disaster? David Canning, Sangeeta Raja, and Abdo S. Yazbeck OVERVIEW Africa’s Demographic Transition OVERVIEW Africa’s Demographic Transition Dividend or Disaster? David Canning, Sangeeta Raja, and Abdo S. Yazbeck A copublication of Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank This booklet contains the Overview from the forthcoming book, Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster? doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0489-2. A PDF of the final, full-length book will be available at openknowledge.worldbank.org and print copies can be ordered at www.amazon.com. 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Africa Development Forum Series The Africa Development Forum Series was created in 2009 to focus on issues of significant relevance to Sub-Saharan Africa’s social and economic development. Its aim is both to record the state of the art on a specific topic and to contribute to ongoing local, regional, and global policy debates. It is designed specifically to provide practitioners, scholars, and students with the most up-to-date research results while highlighting the promise, challenges, and opportunities that exist on the continent. The series is sponsored by the Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank. The manuscripts chosen for publication represent the high- est quality in each institution and have been selected for their relevance to the development agenda. Working together with a shared sense of mission and interdisciplinary purpose, the two institutions are committed to a common search for new insights and new ways of analyzing the development realities of the Sub-Saharan Africa region. Advisory Committee Members Agence Française de Développement Jean-Yves Grosclaude, Director of Strategy Alain Henry, Director of Research Guillaume de Saint Phalle, Head of Research and Publishing Division Cyrille Bellier, Head of the Economic and Social Research Unit World Bank Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Chief Economist, Africa Region Richard Damania, Lead Economist, Africa Region Stephen McGroarty, Executive Editor, Publishing and Knowledge Division Carlos Rossel, Publisher v Sub-Saharan Africa IBRD 39088 Titles in the Africa Development Forum Series Africa’s Infrastructure: A Time for Transformation (2010) edited by Vivien Foster and Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia Gender Disparities in Africa’s Labor Market (2010) edited by Jorge Saba Arbache, Alexandre Kolev, and Ewa Filipiak Challenges for African Agriculture (2010) edited by Jean-Claude Deveze Contemporary Migration to South Africa: A Regional Development Issue (2011) edited by Aurelia Segatti and Loren Landau Light Manufacturing in Africa: Targeted Policies to Enhance Private Investment and Create Jobs (2012) by Hinh T. Dinh, Vincent Palmade, Vandana Chandra, and Frances Cossar Informal Sector in Francophone Africa: Firm Size, Productivity, and Institutions (2012) by Nancy Benjamin and Ahmadou Aly Mbaye Financing Africa’s Cities: The Imperative of Local Investment (2012) by Thierry Paulais Structural Transformation and Rural Change Revisited: Challenges for Late Developing Countries in a Globalizing World (2012) by Bruno Losch, Sandrine Fréguin-Gresh, and Eric Thomas White The Political Economy of Decentralization in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New Implementation Model (2013) edited by Bernard Dafflon and Thierry Madiès Empowering Women: Legal Rights and Economic Opportunities in Africa (2013) by Mary Hallward-Driemeier and Tazeen Hasan Enterprising Women: Expanding Economic Opportunities in Africa (2013) by Mary Hallward-Driemeier Urban Labor Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013) edited by Philippe De Vreyer and François Roubaud Securing Africa’s Land for Shared Prosperity: A Program to Scale Up Reforms and Investments (2013) by Frank F. K. Byamugisha Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (2014) by Deon Filmer and Louis Fox Tourism in Africa: Harnessing Tourism for Growth and Improved Livelihoods (2014) by Iain Christie, Eneida Fernandes, Hannah Messerli, and Louise Twining-Ward vii viii TITLES IN THE AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FORUM SERIES Safety Nets in Africa: Effective Mechanisms to Reach the Poor and Most Vulnerable (2015) edited by Carlo del Ninno and Bradford Mills Land Delivery Systems in West African Cities: The Example of Bamako, Mali (2015) by Alain Durand-Lasserve, Maÿlis Durand-Lasserve, and Harris Selod Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors (2015) edited by Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa (2015) by Alexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster? (2015) edited by David Canning, Sangeeta Raja, and Abdo S. Yazbeck All books in the Africa Development Forum series are available for free at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2150 Contents Contents of the Complete Volume xi Foreword xiii Acknowledgments xv Introduction 1 Demographic Dividend or Disaster 4 Demographic Dynamics in Africa 6 Speeding up the Transition 11 Human Development Payoffs 19 Jobs Payoffs 22 Economic Growth in Africa 25 Policies to Speed up the Demographic Transition 32 Policies to Reap the Demographic Dividend 34 Notes 37 References 37 Box O.1 Cohort Size and Youth Unemployment 26 Figures O.1 Four Stages of the Demographic Transition in Sweden, 1750–2010 5 O.2 Actual and Projected Ratio of Working-Age Population 16–64 Years of Age to Dependents in Select World Regions, 1950–2100 7 O.3 Under-Five Mortality Rate in Select World Regions, 1960–2012 8 O.4 Total Fertility Rate in Select World Regions, 1960–2012 9 ix x CONTENTS O.5 Total Fertility Rate in Select Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1960–2012 11 O.6 Total Fertility Rate in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Kenya, by Rural-Urban Residence, Various Years 12 O.7 Correlation between Under-Five Mortality Rate and Total Fertility Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa and Rest of the World, 2012 13 O.8 Total Fertility Rate in Ethiopia, by Female Educational Attainment, 1998–2011 15 O.9 Secondary School Enrollment in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Gender, 1970–2012 16 O.10 Proximate Determinants of