Salford City Council

Housing Needs Assessment

Executive Summary

September 2007

Executive Summa ry of Salf ord Ho using Nee ds Assessme nt

Executive Summary of Housing Needs Assessment

Introduction

1. This document provides the Executive Summary of the Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) carried out for the City of Salford during late 2006 and the first half of 2007. It has been conducted according to GLG Guidance (the Practice Guidance of March 2007 being the most recent).

2. The following map provides broad context, showing the Greater area within which the City of Salford is set:

Figure S1 area

Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

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Character of Salford

3. Salford is a city in the North West of , and also a Unitary Authority forming part of the ceremonial county of Greater Manchester. Apart from the city of Salford itself, with an estimated population of 73,400 in 2002, the Unitary Authority covered by the City Council also includes surrounding areas such as , and Swinton, bringing the total population to 216,300. The city has a close relationship with neighbouring Manchester, and indeed Salford’s city centre is within walking distance of .

The Manchester/Salford MSP Brief

4. The Brief provides both general and specific information on the requirements for this study:

[The Clients] wish to undertake a comprehensive survey of housing requirements… [to] cover all tenures and …areas (para 1.1)

The research is needed to support both Councils strategic planning (with details of many types of strategic policy). ..The final report should include a housing needs (supply and demand) forecast for (a) the next 5 years and (b) an indication of need over the next 10 years.

In Section 2.3 are listed over a dozen headings, which range from specific requirements (essentially the measurement of housing demand and need) to general intentions.

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5. The four submarket areas were used for the analysis.

Figure S2 Salford Submarket Areas

Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

6. It is impossible to model housing market areas exactly, as they are not only interactive but fluid over time. However this set of sub-market areas does capture some of the major features of the City’s character. Subsequent housing market analysis is carried out within this framework.

Survey results and elements used for weighting

7. The table below shows an estimate of the current tenure split in Salford along with the sample achieved in each group.

Table S1 Number of households in each tenure group Total % of Number of Tenure number of % of returns households returns households Owner-occupied (no mortgage) 22,900 23.6% 816 29.8% Owner-occupied (with mortgage) 32,990 34.0% 876 32.0% Council 25,036 25.8% 667 24.4% RSL 5,535 5.7% 149 5.4% Private rented 10,439 10.8% 228 8.3% TOTAL 96,900 100.0% 2,736 100.0% Sources: Salford City Council HSSA 2006, Census 2001, SHMA 2007

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8. The following tables provide broad price data on the City.

Table S2 Land Registry average prices (3rd Quarter 2006) As % of England Area Average price and England & Wales £211,521 100.0% North West £153,261 72.5% Salford £134,929 63.9% Source: Land Registry – Residential Property Prices Figure S3 Land Registry price changes 2001–2006 (3rd quarters)

£250,000

£200,000 e c i

r £150,000 p

e g a r e

v £100,000 A England & Wales £50,000 North West Salford

£0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year

Source: Land Registry – Residential Property Prices

9. The table below shows average property prices for the City for each dwelling type (from Land Registry data). This data is compared with regional price information. The volume of sales by type is also included for both areas.

Table S3 Land Registry average prices and sales (3rd quarter 2006) Salford North West Dwelling type Average price % of sales Average price % of sales Detached £233,792 8.5% £280,306 15.6% Semi-detached £138,527 30.5% £155,102 33.8% Terraced £103,014 35.1% £105,056 39.9% Flat/maisonette £127,212 25.9% £135,006 10.8% All dwellings £131,265 100.0% £152,491 100.0% Source: Land Register Online

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10. The largest volume of sales in the City was for terraced houses (35.1%) with an average price of £103,014. Semi-detached houses and flats/maisonettes accounted for around 30% and 25% of total sales respectively. Sales regionally show a higher proportion of detached houses and a lower proportion of flats/maisonettes. As can be seen from the relative price levels in Table S4 below. Salford is cheaper than most of its neighbours. This conceals the fact that the City contains some quite highly priced housing areas.

Table S4 Price levels in Salford and adjoining areas (3rd quarter 2006) Council area % of England & Wales 60.2% Salford 62.1% 66.4% Manchester 67.4% Bury 67.8% 85.3% 110.9% Source: Land Registry 2007 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

The private rented sector

11. The private rented sector is a key to the market’s dynamic. Data suggests that Salford has an average sized private rented sector (10.8% of households compared with around 12% nationally). The number of one and two bedroom properties is proportionately larger in the private rented sector – 38.8% of all private rented stock is one or two bedroom, which compares with only 17.3% of the owner-occupied stock.

12. The tables below summarise the position with regard to turnover of stock and the proportion of households claiming housing benefit (income support) towards housing costs. Table S6 again clearly demonstrates the differences between the different tenures. The turnover of private rented stock is around 5 times that in the owner-occupied sector whilst households in the social rented sector are significantly more likely to claim assistance with their housing costs than owners or private tenants.

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Table S5 Turnover of stock and housing benefit claims by tenure Annual turnover of % claiming housing Tenure stock (% of benefit (income households) support for owners) Owner-occupied 5.5% 1.6% Private rented 27.8% 33.0% Social rented 7.9% 66.0% TOTAL 8.7% 25.3% Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

Table S6 Yearly Turnover by Tenure and Sub-area Owner-Occupied Owner-Occupied Council RSL Private TOTAL (no mortgage) (w/ mortgage) Rented Rented Rented North Salford 1.5% 6.9% 7.7% 7.7% 30.1% 8.5% Mid-West Salford 2.2% 8.9% 8.1% 23.9% 32.8% 7.9% South Salford 1.4% 7.8% 7.3% 13.0% 39.4% 9.2% Salford Regional Centre 3.2% 27.0% 8.0% 12.0% 34.0% 17.5% Central Manchester 3.4% 10.1% 9.4% 8.4% 41.0% 14.5% M’cr City Centre 15.2% 26.9% 0.0% 22.9% 50.6% 33.7% East Manchester 0.0% 12.8% 6.9% 15.6% 45.2% 14.3% North Manchester 2.2% 6.0% 10.0% 15.3% 27.8% 10.0% South Manchester 2.3% 11.1% 5.9% 12.0% 44.8% 14.9% Wythenshawe SRF 3.0% 12.7% 9.6% 7.7% 31.3% 9.8% TOTAL 2.3% 10.2% 8.1% 11.1% 39.1% 12.1% Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

13. It is clear from the turnover figures in the table above that turnover generally is not high (national levels are around 7%). The private rented sector always shows a high turnover, and 30-40% is a typical range. Salford can be seen to show private rental mobility at the lower end of this range, whereas most of Manchester is at the higher end. Looking at the subareas of Salford it can clearly be seen that the Regional Centre shows by far the highest level of mobility, as would be expected from its location and character.

Accommodation typology by tenure

14. The figure below shows the type of properties in each of the three broad tenures in Salford. The figure indicates that less than 10% of owner-occupied properties are flats, whilst this dwelling type constitutes over a third of properties in the private rented sector and over 40% of affordable accommodation. Over half of owner-occupied homes are detached or semi- detached houses, much higher than the proportion recorded in the other tenures.

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Figure S4 Dwelling type by tenure

100% 7.5% 90%

80% 37.4% 31.5% 41.4% 70%

60%

50% 30.0% 40% 35.0% 48.3% 30%

20% 23.2% 21.8% 10% 12.7% 9.4% 0% 1.8% Owner-occupied Private rented Social rented

Detached Semi-detached Terraced Flat

Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

Financial capacity: ability to move

15. The ability of households to move, especially in the owner occupied sector, no longer depends on household income alone. That is why we measure financial capacity (income + savings + owned equity). That is the measure used in the tables below, and which is used to assess the ability of households planning to move to afford a given form of housing.

Table S7 Financial capacity – all households Manchester & Topic Salford Salford 1. Mean income £22,392 £21,459 2. Mean savings £12,087 £11,688 3. Mean equity £62,311 £53,759 Financial capacity to buy £141,575 £129,824 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

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Table S8 Financial capacity by tenure – all households Owner- Private Social Topic occupied rented rented 1. Mean income £29,781 £18,818 £10,105 2. Mean savings £19,041 £6,133 £1,406 3. Mean equity £108,032 - - Financial capacity to buy £216,418 £62,585 £31,720 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

Figure S5 Household income

Source: Survey based and shown by submarket area (Figure S2 shows submarkets)

16. As can be seen, financial capacity varies greatly between owners and renters, and also from private renters to social renters. It can also be seen that non-movers have the highest financial capacity, while those planning a move outside have a much higher financial capacity than those planning a move within the two cities.

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Table S9 Financial capacity of households by movement intentions Planning to move Planning to move Topic Not planning to within Manchester outside of Manchester move and Salford and Salford Mean income £17,529 £22,184 £22,903 Mean savings £2,731 £6,676 £13,302 Mean equity £23,829 £43,048 £67,170 Financial capacity £79,148 £116,276 £149,182 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

17. The table also indicates that private and social renting households moving out of the City have a lower financial capacity than all households in these tenures resident in the City, whilst owner-occupiers moving out of the City have a higher financial capacity than all owners in the City.

Table S10 Financial capacity by tenure – households moving out of the City Moving from Moving Moving Topic owner- from from social occupation private rent rent 1. Mean income £35,674 £17,892 £8,338 2. Mean savings £13,081 £1,886 £2,739 3. Mean equity £106,364 - - Financial capacity to buy £226,467 £55,562 £27,752 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

Recent in-movers

18. The following table provides some details on in-movers to Salford according to tenure destination. It is important to notice that ‘incoming’ means coming in from outside both Manchester and Salford.

Table S11 Financial capacity of in-migrant households Moving to Moving to private Moving to social Topic owner- rent rent occupation Mean income £39,910 £21,602 £6,651 Mean savings £15,916 £6,536 £124 Mean equity £57,623 - - Financial capacity £193,269 £71,341 £20,077 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

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Housing need

19. The calculations reflect the needs model in the current Guidance: it is a linear calculation rather than an interactive analysis of market flows, and contains various assumptions which do not correspond to real life: such as no more than 25% of income to be spent on housing. As a result the outputs are different from those of the BHM, although not dramatically so in this case.

20. The following diagram shows the Housing Needs Index developed by Fordham Research and applied to many hundreds of such assessments. It is simply the result of dividing the numbers of thousands of households in an area into the annual need shown by the model.

Figure S6 Typical levels of need for new affordable housing

Inner London 35 Outer London 27 South West 17 England 16 South East 16 East 12 & Wales 9 9 North 8 East Midlands 8 Manchester 7 Salford 6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Affordable housing requiremement/000 households

Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment s 2007

21. As would be expected, this Index figure is much lower than the national average (of 16) but is quite high for the North West of England, and for other areas of the North of England. The level of housing need overall would justify a 30% target for affordable housing, but this suggestion is designed for the policy debate involved in the SHMA principle.

Intermediate housing

22. The survey data was analysed to show how much of the housing need could be met either by intermediate (priced between a social rent and market entry) and by social rented housing. The results are as follows:

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Table S12 Social rented and intermediate housing requirements in Salford per annum (following DCLG guide) Social rented Intermediate housing Total Current need 676 43 719 Available stock -6 86 79 Newly arising need 2,738 149 2,887 Future supply 2,814 39 2,853 Net shortfall or surplus 607 67 674 % of net shortfall 90.1% 9.9% 100.0% Gross annual need 3,415 192 3,606 Gross annual supply 2,808 125 2,932 Net annual need 607 67 674 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment s 2007

23. As can be seen, only a very small fraction, about 11% of the housing need can be met by intermediate housing. This is evidence for the fact that those in housing need in Salford are on much lower incomes than the average, and cannot afford anything more than the social rent. The penultimate table in this summary shows weekly costs which would provide ‘usefully affordable’ intermediate housing in the middle of the intermediate range.

Needs of particular groups

24. The housing issues affecting a range of groups were examined. The following tables present summary results.

Table S13 Support needs categories % of support Number of Number of % of all Category needs people households households households Frail or elderly 8,822 7,803 8.1% 32.1% Medical condition 14,756 13,009 13.4% 53.4% Physical disability 13,204 11,799 12.2% 48.5% Learning disability 2,568 2,362 2.4% 9.7% Mental health problem 3,771 3,567 3.7% 14.7% Severe sensory disability 1,851 1,755 1.8% 7.2% Other 1,526 1,445 1.5% 5.9% Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

25. In addition to the above information we are able to look at the number of people in each household with a support need and also households containing persons with multiple support needs. The results for these are shown below.

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Table S14 Number of people with support needs

Households % of households No people with support needs 72,561 74.9% One person with support needs 20,295 20.9% Two persons with support needs 3,624 3.7% Three or more persons with support needs 420 0.4% TOTAL 96,900 100.0% Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

Table S15 Households with support needs

Households % of households No people with support needs 72,561 74.9% Single support need only 14,112 14.6% Multiple support needs 10,227 10.6% TOTAL 96,900 100.0% Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

The BME population

26. The table below shows results of the survey which shows that over 97% of households in Salford are headed by someone who describes themselves as White. The proportion shown by the survey is slightly less than the Census proportion of BME households. The Census figure is 3.9% (the total BME figure given in the Census is 7.3%, but this includes ‘other white’. The figure comparable with the present survey is 3.9%). The two measures of non-white BME population are therefore similar.

Table S16 BME households Categories Number of households % of all households White 94,110 97.1% Non-White 2,790 2.9% TOTAL 96,900 100.0% Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

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Figure S7 Non-White Households

Source: Survey based and shown by submarket area (Figure S2 shows submarkets)

Characteristics of BME households

27. The table below shows household size by ethnic group. The data suggests that a majority of households are comprised of one or two persons only. Non-white households on average are larger in size than white households.

Table S17 Size of households Number of persons Ethnic 6 or Average Group 1 2 3 4 5 Total more HH size White 34,493 29,311 14,231 10,222 4,075 1,779 94,111 2.2 Non-White 842 484 329 606 379 151 2,791 2.9 TOTAL 35,335 29,795 14,560 10,828 4,454 1,930 96,902 2.3 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

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28. The distribution table below suggests that the neighbourhoods of City, Eccles and Broughton and Irwell shows the highest levels of BME households. The remaining neighbourhoods show low proportions of such households.

Table S18 Ethnic group and neighbourhood Ethnic Group Neighbourhood White Non-White Broughton and Irwell 95.8% 4.2% Central Salford (Non PF) 98.1% 1.9% Central Salford (PF) 98.1% 1.9% City 94.7% 5.3% Eccles 94.9% 5.1% Irlam and 98.0% 2.0% and 98.9% 1.1% Swinton and 98.2% 1.8% and 97.8% 2.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

Income and savings levels

29. The table below shows average income and savings levels between the ethnic groups. It shows that Non-White households tend to have higher incomes but lower levels of savings than White households.

Table S19 Income and savings levels of ethnic minority households Annual gross household income Average household Categories (including non-housing benefits) savings White £22,445 £12,293 Non-White £26,506 £10,528 Average £22,562 £12,242 Source: Salford Housing Needs Assessment – 2007

Weekly costs of each tenure group

30. The following table provides a reference, which is updateable, that permits any tenure, to be assessed in terms of its affordability. If new affordable housing is provided, the table can be used to check whether the housing in question is indeed affordable. The only requirement is to specify the new housing in terms of its (full) weekly costs.

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Table S20 Weekly costs of each tenure in Salford

Submarket/ Regional North Mid-West South Beds Centre Entry level newbuild One n/a £175 £198 £190 Two £190 £228 £228 £228 Three £243 £266 £289 £334 Four £365 n/a £334 n/a Entry level purchase One n/a n/a n/a n/a Two £126 £158 £119 £105 Three £141 £187 £150 £132 Four £213 £269 £175 £166 Entry level market rents One n/a n/a n/a £71 Two £68 £80 £73 £76 Three £72 £88 £78 £97 Four £79 £95 n/a £116 Usefully affordable housing One £52 £52 £52 £61.50 Two £63 £69 £65.50 £67 Three £70 £78 £73 £82.50 Four £79.50 £87.50 £80 £98 Social rents One £52 £52 £52 £52 Two £58 £58 £58 £58 Three £68 £68 £68 £68 Four £80 £80 £80 £80 Sources: Survey of Property Sales Websites, HSSA 2005/06.

31. Usefully affordable (intermediate) housing refers to housing priced halfway between a social rent and market entry (private rent). If intermediate housing is provided just under the market entry level (as is quite commonly done) it does not provide assistance to those in intermediate need, as hardly any of them are found just below the threshold. It is necessary to go at least halfway down to be of much real use as a step in the housing ladder. The difficulty is that it is hard to provide anything affordable at that price. However that is a subsequent challenge.

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Summary

32. The policy suggestion emerging from this analysis is a 30% target across the City. This is a maximum justifiable by the evidence. The political process may decide on a lower target, and that is perfectly appropriate: external consultants can only suggest what is possible, and it is for the processes of the local authority to decide what target to set in practice.

33. Of this target, a maximum of 5% could be set as intermediate housing. The price of this housing should be carefully checked and updated to ensure that it actually is affordable.

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