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Founder and Publisher* Editor-in-Chief Valentina N. Edronova, National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation Office: 111397 (zip), Zelenyi prospekt 20, , Russian Federation Telephone: +7 495 989 9610 Technical Editing and Text Processing Irina M. Vechkanova, Moscow, Russian Federation Editorial Editorial Council Office: 111397 (zip), Zelenyi prospekt 20, Moscow, Russian Federation Telephone: +7 495 989 9610 Nadezhda E. Babicheva, Voronezh State University, E-mail: [email protected] Voronezh, Russian Federation Website: http://www.fin-izdat.ru Tat'yana Yu. Druzhilovskaya, National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation Printed by KTK, Ltd., 141290 (zip), ul. Sverdlova, 1, Krasnoarmeysk, Yurii A. Kuznetsov, National Research Lobachevsky State University Russian Federation of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation Telephone: +7 496 588 0866 Published March 27, 2018 Nikolai P. Lyubushin, Voronezh State University, Circulation 800 Voronezh, Russian Federation Yana S. Matkovskaya, Volgograd State Technical University, Subscription Volgograd, Russian Federation Ural-Press Agency Svetlana V. Ratner, Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS, Rospechat Agency Moscow, Russian Federation Igor' V. Shevchenko, Kuban State University, Online version Krasnodar, Russian Federation EBSCOhostTM databases Nadezhda I. Yashina, National Research Lobachevsky State University Scientific electronic library: http://elibrary.ru of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation University Library Online: http://biblioclub.ru Director General Vera A. Gorokhova Not responsible for the authors’ personal views in the published articles Managing Director Aleksey K. Smirnov Chief Production Officer Anton A. Klyukin This publication may not be reproduced in any form without permission Publishing Liaison Officer Aleksandr T. Uzhegov Executive Editor Irina G. Abramova All accidental grammar and/or spelling errors are our own Translation and Editing Olga V. Yakovleva, Irina M. Vechkanova Translation Natalia A. Shagalova Disclaimer Design Sergey V. Golosovskiy We use the English-language translation versions (bracketed article titles Content Managers Elena I. Popova, Valentina I. Romanova in References) of the Russian-language source titles provided in public Quality Management Andrey V. Bazhanov, Elena I. Popova domain to ensure easy searching for the precise location of published titles Proofreading Viktor A. Nerushev throughout the existing citation databases only. Possible errors and/or Sales and Subscription Tatiana N. Dorokhina omissions found in the translation versions of the kind belong to the original source titles

* For information on the journal publication frequency change please visit: http://www.fin-izdat.ru/journal/digest/about.php CONTENTS

RISK, ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents 3 Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows 16

FINANCE OF ORGANIZATIONS. ANALYSIS OF ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting Standards and IFRS 29 Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business Valuation Method 41 Fedorova E.A., Komarova E.O. The Impact of Foreign Stockholders on the Dividend Policy of Russian Companies 55 Butuzova A.S. Capitalization of International Uniсorn Companies: To What Extent Is It Reasonable? 63 SECURITIES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact on the Industry Development 68 Zvonova E.A., Pishchik V.Ya. On Conceptual Approaches to Developing the EAEU Common Financial Market 81

FINANCIAL CONTROL Sukharev A.N. Minimum Reserve Requirements for Commercial Banks: Theory and Practice 90 INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture 98

FINANCIAL THEORY Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices 108 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15 pISSN 2073-8005 Risk, Analysis and Evaluation eISSN 2311-9438

Translated Article† THE BUSINESS CONTINUITY CONCEPT IN THE ASSESSMENT OF CREDITWORTHINESS OF ECONOMIC AGENTS

Nadezhda E. BABICHEVA Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation [email protected] Corresponding author

Nikolai P. LYUBUSHIN Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation [email protected]

Roman Yu. KONDRAT'EV Lipetsk Branch of Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Lipetsk, Russian Federation [email protected]

Article history: Abstract Received 2 October 2017 Importance The article analyzes the existing contradictions in the implementation of the going concern principle Received in revised form and securing the creditworthiness. 6 October 2017 Objectives The article presents our original comprehensive study of the business continuity concept in relation to Accepted 12 October 2017 creditworthiness of economic agents to synthesize two accounting concepts, i.e. the dynamic and static balance Translated 12 January 2018 sheet. Available online 27 March 2018 Methods We employ general scientific principles and research methods, namely, a historical approach, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, grouping, comparison, abstraction, generalization, and analogy. JEL classification: O12, Q01 Results The paper proves the hypothesis that entity's creditworthiness is a complex accounting and analytical characteristic reflecting the continuity of operations. If the entity does not ensure its creditworthiness, it puts its business continuity at peril. Poor financial solvency leads to bankruptcy, and the economic entity may cease its operations. Conclusions and Relevance The existing contradictions in the business continuity and creditworthiness Keywords: business continuity assessment appeared in the 19th century. We suggest that the theory and practice of accounting and economic management, BCM, going concern, analysis should be developed by synthesizing both accounting concepts of dynamic and static balance sheet creditworthiness, sustainable through integrated reporting. This will create an information pool to assess the entity's creditworthiness and development solvency and subsequently identify and avert the continuity threat.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. 3 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15

Continuous and† sustainable extended reproduction A.E. Shevelev, B.A. Amanzholova, N.N. Ovchinninkova depends on the availability of working assets in [5, 6], unavailability of net working assets, incompliance the entity. The extended reproduction process is with advisable solvency and creditworthiness indicators interpreted through the following transformation chain: signify the entity’s financial problems, being a serious … money → inventories → settlements (amounts due) reason for auditors and creditors to doubt the entity’s → money... If some external and internal factors disrupt ability to continue as a going concern. The above the chain in a certain point, the reproduction process is reasoning proves that there are contradictions in discontinued as well, thus causing breaches in the going evaluating whether the entity is still a going concern concern principle, loss of financial sustainability and and able to repay. Further studies are required in this corporate crisis. L.A. Mendel'son concludes that many respect. bourgeois economists tend to evaluate the severity of Numerous approaches to creditworthiness evaluation crises by their effects on distribution. Bankruptcy, bank were presented in researches led by D.A. Endovitskii. smash, dropping prices and their implications are We adhere to the definition given in the monograph aspects that those economist focus on, first of all. From referred to in [7, p. 174] stating that the borrower’s the individual capitalists’ perspectives, this approach is creditworthiness (the entity) shall mean quite understandable. Profit margin, prices, loss of their a comprehensive legal and economic characteristic creditworthiness determine their wealth, don’t they? To embodied through financial and non-financial adequately evaluate the crisis, its severity, it is indicators. It helps evaluate whether the borrower necessary to consider its multiple forms in each aspect (entity) is able to fulfill its debt obligations to of economy, including lending [1, p. 205]. the creditor in the future and within timelines stipulated To ensure the continuing production process, the in the loan agreement. It is also the basis to assess owner shall have net working capital, the share of which the risk associated with a certain borrower. In addition shapes the balance structure. The share is calculated as to financial characteristics of the borrower, this the ratio of net working assets to total current assets1. definition of creditworthiness involves legal ones (legal This indicator is viewed as a source for finance of capacity, business reputation) and emphasizes current assets, being an underlying element of liquidity the legitimacy and necessity of considering ratios banks consider to evaluate borrowers’ non-financial indication for analysis purposes. creditworthiness. This is mentioned by many As said in the research referred to herein [8], liquidity, researchers, such as V.V. Kovalev, E. Al'tman, R. Chelik working capital-to-current assets ratio come into et al. [2, pp. 486–488, 3, 4]. the spotlight as The Law of the Russian Federation On On the one hand, if the entity has no net working Insolvency (Bankruptcy) in the 1992 edition pronounces capital, it has to utilize borrowed sources of finance in the ability to repay debts as a solvency criterion. order to observe the going concern principle. According The entity is deemed insolvent if its accounts payable to V.V. Kovalev, creditors in the balance sheet usually exceed the property value. As the law was further imply that the entity has an additional source of enforced, the Russian Government adopted Resolution finance. That is, the entity may utilize the creditor’s No. 498 On Some Actions for Enforcement of Insolvency funds for some time, which shall ultimately be returned (Bankruptcy) Law (edition of October 3, 2002) and accounts payable shall be repaid at a certain promulgating two financial ratios: moment of time2. On the other hand, according to • current liquidity ratio kcur.ldt, with the statutory value of kcur.ldt ≥ 2; †For the source article, please refer to: Бабичева Н.Э., Любушин Н.П., Кондратьев Р.Ю. Концепция непрерывности • working capital-to-current assets ratio kfin.sust, with деятельности в оценке кредитоспособности экономических fin.sust субъектов. Экономический анализ: теория и практика. 2017. Т. 16. the statutory value of k > 0.1. № 10. С. 1840–1858. URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.16.10.1840 1 Fig. 1 shows trends in the current ratio and working Net working capital shall mean working assets less current liabilities or a part of equity used to finance working assets. capital-to-current assets ratio. 2 Kovalev V.V., Kovalev Vit.V. Korporativenye finansy i uchet: ponyatiya, algoritmy, pokazateli [Corporate finance and accounting: Concepts, algorithms, indicators]. Moscow, Prospekt, KnoRus Publ., 2010, p. 280.

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment 4 of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15

Considering the outcome of the ratios trend and (Rosstat)4 do not include the current solvency indicator. forecast evaluation in Fig. 1, the Russian economy is Thus, to evaluate the solvency, current ratio and debt laden because the working capital-to-current working capital-to-current assets ratio are used. For assets ratio has been negative since 1996. The ratios example, in the book Finance of . 20165, paragraph has been far from their statutory values for a long 3.15 refers to the current ratio, working capital-to-total period of time, thus proving the inadequacy of assets ratio, and equity-to-total assets ratio as solvency the regulatory framework effective in the 1990s and and financial sustainability metrics. In our publications, inapplicability of the said statutory values of the ability we reiterated that the current ratio and working capital- to repay debts to the current conditions of the Russian to-current assets ratio describe the entity's ability to economy and, subsequently undermining the going pay. They constituted insolvency criteria before 1998 concern principle. [8].

The current ratio reflects the entity’s ability to fulfill The crisis situation with VIM-Avia Airlines aggravated current liabilities using its current assets, being very issues associated with corporate financial position popular in foreign analytical practices. As the analysis evaluation. As stipulated in paragraph 17 of by V.N. Edronova and S.Yu. Khasyanova shows [9] the methodological guidelines of the Russian Ministry of the Russian law-makers adopted too high statutory Transport, the current ratio is the most frequent metric value of the current liquidity in 1994 (Table 1). to reveal a bankruptcy threat6. It reaffirms the inadequacy of institutional regulation on If we calculate the average statistic of the current ratio, the creditworthiness in various activities in Russia. it will be 1.16 for Russia and approximate the average statistics for Japan, though the use of current assets in There has not been any reduction in numbers of business processes substantially differs in Russia and unprofitable entities for the period of reforms (about 30 Japan. Japan remains the only country in the world that percent nationwide). According to the Central Bank of managed to completely integrate the Just-in-Time Russia, unprofitable entities in the real economy system into business processes. accounted for 34.2 percent in Q1 20177. Naturally, under such circumstances, the primary goal is to ensure Considering the imperfect regulatory framework for the going concern principle and increase steering and organizational procedure of bankruptcy, the creditworthiness of economic entities. which caused the bankruptcy of the Russian major enterprises, law-makers had to adopt new editions of In this respect, we hypothesize that corporate the Federal Law On Insolvency (Bankruptcy) in 1998, 2002 creditworthiness is a comprehensive accounting and and alter the bankruptcy criteria to the inability to pay. analytical characteristic reflecting the going concern The unsatisfactory structure of balance and its principle. If the entity is not creditworthy, the going recognition as such cease to have legal implications, concern principle is at stake. The ability to pay is being used by credit institutions for reference purposes a constraint on the going concern principle and in deciding on the financial position of borrowers. creditworthiness, which, if lost, may cause their The current ability to pay has been regarded as a metric bankruptcy and discontinuing of their operations. of the entity's insolvency since 1998. It is construed as 4 Methodological Guidelines for Analyzing Financial and Business an ability to satisfy creditors' monetary claims (or) make Operations of Entities, as approved by the Russian State Statistics obligatory payments within three months from the date Service as of November 28, 2002. when they are to be made3. 5 Finansy Rossii. 2016: stat. sb [Finance of Russia. 2016: Statistical Yearbook]. Moscow, Rosstat Publ., 2016, 343 p. However, many publications still describe the URL: http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/doc_2016/fin16.pdf insolvency evaluation with reference to liquidity and use 6 Methodological Guidelines for Evaluating the Financial and indicators set forth in Resolution of the RF Government Business Position of Legal Entities Applied to Civil Aviation Authorities for an Air Operator’s Certificate for commercial purposes, and legal № 498. This has its own background. Methodological entities, which already hold such a certificate: instruction of the RF guidelines of the Russian State Statistics Service Ministry of Transport of May 5, 2012 № ИЛ-62-р (Edition of July 27, 2016). 3 Federal Law On Insolvency (Bankruptcy) of October 26, 2002 7 Doklad o denezhno-kreditnoi politike [Monetary policy report]. № 127-ФЗ (Edition of July 29, 2017) URL: http://www.cbr.ru/publ/ddcp/2017_02_ddcp.pdf (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. 5 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15

As G.B. Kleiner points out, the performance of emphasizes the importance of this principle, now economy, i.e. processes of production, distribution, continuity, it is not too much to say, is the leading exchange and consumption of tangibles and conception of science. The complexity of the conception of intangibles, is viewed through the lens of creating, continuity is so great as to render it important wherever it coordinating, transforming and dissolving economic occurs. Now it enters into every fundamental and exact law systems. The undisrupted existence of an entity (and of physics or of psychics that is known. …It seem not operational environment) contributes to the continuity unlikely that if the veritable laws were known continuity of time [10, p. 21]. Therefore, laws of system operations would be found to be involved in them13. imply the continuity of the economic system. In management, accounting and analytical science Operational distinctions of the economic actor scholars single out the business continuity concept and determines the efficiency of the accounting and going concern principle. As a rule, this concept implies analytical framework. The accounting and analytical a system of views concerning the given aspect or system is based on a structural approach discerning an phenomenon, while principles mean the fundamental entity as a complex unit, which consists of several framework underlying theoretical and practical subsystems. In the subsystems, accounting and activities. In the , the business analytical processes are irreversible and continuity concept and going concern principle predetermined, unlike simple systems in classical semantically convey the same meaning, while they are physics. It is impossible to predict and foresee how this not synonyms in English. For example, the going accounting system will behave within protracted concern principle is understood as the entity's periods of time. possibility (concern) of continuing its operations within Let us refer to G.B. Kleiner's researches assuming that, a foreseeable period of time, without going bankrupt or once originated, an economic system generally carries becoming insolvent14. Business continuity management on continuously and survives all interim points of time, constitutes the management process identifying from its inception to its dissolution. Thus the period of potential threats to the entity's business operations. the economic system shall represent the interval <а, b> This process is the basis for corporate sustainability to on the number line of time –∞ ≤ a, b ≤ ∞. The bounds of effectively protect interest of its key stakeholders, this interval become indefinite, if one or both integers reputation, brand and value creation15. In the Russian a,b are unknown or equal –∞ or +∞. Notwithstanding practice, corporate sustainability activities are that the life cycle of a certain entity or life expectancy of attributed to crisis management, thus restricting the a person are finite, business customs and community interpretation of this principle in accounting and life rely upon the assumption that the operating entity auditing. This may be due to the fact that issues of the and human life are perpetual [10, p. 14]. Russian entities’ escalated in the early 1990s, when the Being a common concept in philosophy and law of centrally planned economy was abolished, and were metaphysics and logic, the continuity principle was attributed to managerial tasks. corroborated and unfolded in proceedings by Business continuity management researches gained 8 9 10 11 G.W.F. Hegel , I. Kant , G.W. Leibnitz , C.S. Peirce , traction in the late 20th century in proceedings by 12 E. Schrödinger and other scholars. C.A. Peirce scholars from Great Britain, USA, Japan, Australia and 8 Hegel G.W.F. Nauka logiki: v 3 t. Tom 1 [Wissenschaft der Logik. 13 Buch 1]. Moscow, Mysl' Publ., 1970, 590 p. Peirce C.S. Printsipy filosofii: v 2 t [Russian edition. Principles of philosophy. Two volumes]. St. Petersburg, 9 Kant I. Sochineniya: v 6 t. Tom 1 [Works. Six Volumes. Volume 1]. Philosophic Society Publ., 2001, 224 p. Moscow, Mysl' Publ., 1963, 543 p. 14 Accounting Standards Update 2014-15 Presentation of Financial 10 Leibniz G.W. Sochineniya: v 4 t. Tom 3 [Works. Four Volumes. Statements – Going Concern (Subtopic 205-40). Disclosure of Uncertainties Volume 3]. Moscow, Mysl' Publ., 1984, 734 p. about an Entity’s Ability to Continue as a Going Concern 11 Peirce C.S. Printsipy filosofii: v 2 t [Russian edition. Principles (An Amendment of the FASB Accounting Standards Codification®, of philosophy. Two volumes]. St. Petersburg, Saint Petersburg August 2014). URL: http://www.fasb.org/resources/ccurl/599/128/ASU Philosophic Society Publ., 2001, 224 p. %202014-15.pdf 12 Schrödinger E. Izbrannye trudy po kvantovoi mekhanike [Russian 15 GOST Р 53647.1-2009 Business Continuity Management. Part 1. edition. Selected works on quantum mechanics]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., Practical Guide: Order of the Federal Agency on Technical Regulating 1976, 422 p. and Metrology of December 15, 2009 № 998-ст.

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment 6 of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15 other developed nations. Nowadays, they are case of incidents and its breaches if viewed through an important discipline of strategic management, which the system of processes designated for producing links various business processes and economic goods, work and services and ensuring the continuity of activities. According to Lyndon Bird, Technical Director business practices at the tolerable level. Such of the Business Continuity Institute, business continuity processes, which are based on the business continuity management is the only discipline of management concept, include the accounting and controlling system which helps build a high protection wall and that govern accounting and analytical processes, and sustainability of an entity. However, it is inseparable of information and telecommunication technologies, thus security issues, management and communications in proving that the business continuity concept is emergency and crisis situations16. the cornerstone of the corporate accounting process.

Issues of business creditworthiness and continuity draw In Russia, Accounting Concepts in the Market Economy of much attention of actors from financial markets. To Russia is the first regulatory document on accounting, evidence this, the Financial Stability Forum and Bank of which pronounces business continuity as organized a business continuity symposium in the accounting basis. Business continuity is put there as summer 2004. As the symposium follow-up, the Joint an assumption that the entity will continue as a going Forum working group was set up uniting concern in the foreseeable future, and has no representatives of the Basel Committee on Banking intentions and need to wind up or reduce its Supervision, International Organisation of Securities operations. Therefore, liabilities will be performed in Commissions, International Association of Insurance a due manner, thus contributing to the primary Supervisors. The resultant guiding principles were purpose of accounting, i.e. the compilation of released in December 2005 taking the form of information on the financial position, financial results the consultation document called High-Level Principles and changes in the financial position of the entity, which for Business Continuity. This document is intended to many interested users need for decision making19. support the stability of the global financial system. Afterward The Regulation on Accounting and Financial Although the Joint Forum addressed issues of critically Reporting in the Russian Federation was adopted. It important actors of the financial market, first of all, required entities to formulate accounting policies in the principles mentioned below and creditworthiness accordance with the business entity convention, going issues (Principles 2, 3, 5, 7) can be applicable to any concern principle, consistency of accounting policies economic agent (Table 2). and temporary determination of business facts and The regulatory and legal framework for the business other distinctions in business operations20. continuity concept is set forth in national standards on As per paragraph 77 of the Conceptual Principles of management in various countries. In Russia, this Accounting and Financial Reporting21, business concept is scrutinized in the national standards of continuity is viewed as an assumption that Russia (GOST standards), which are identical to the accounting entity (reporting entity) will continue its the national standards of the United Kingdom17. As per operations, perform its rights (functions) and GOST Р53647.1-2009. Business Continuity Management. obligations within at least four years starting from Part. 118, business continuity shall mean the strategic and tactic ability of the entity to plan its operations in 19 Accounting Concept in the Market Economy of Russia was 16 Petrenko S.A., Belyaev A.V. Upravlenie nepreryvnost'yu biznesa. Vash approved by the Methodological Board for Accounting under the RF biznes budet prodolzhat'sya. Informatsionnye tekhnologii dlya inzhenerov Ministry of Finance, Presidential Board of the Institute of Professional [Business continuity management. Your business will go on. IT for Accountants of the Russian Federation, as of December 29, 1997. engineers]. Moscow, DMK Press, Kompaniya AiTi Publ., 2011, 400 p. 20 Order of the RF Ministry of Finance On Approval of the Accounting 17 For example, GOST Р 53647.1-2009. Business Continuity and Financial Reporting Regulation in the Russian Federation, July 29, 1998 Management. Part 1. Practical Guide is identical to the national № 34н. standard of Great Britain BS 25999-1:2006 Business Continuity 21 Order of the RF Ministry of Finance On Approval of the Federal Management. Part 1: Code of Practice. GOST Р53647.1-2009 consists Accounting Standard for Public Entities – Conceptual Principles of of three parts. Accounting and Financial Reporting for Public Entities, of December 31, 18 Ibid. 2016 № 256н.

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. 7 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15 the year of its last financial statements (hereinafter However, I.N. Dmitrienko, I.N. Belousova refute referred to as the foreseeable future), and the owner the novelty of the going concern assumption and refer (founder) has no intentions and (or) needs to dissolve to representatives of accounting schools. The first the accounting entity (reporting entity) or wind up its mention of the going concern principle was found in operations in the foreseeable future. As per paragraph proceedings by Adolphe Guilbault, Eugene Leautey 5 of Russian Accounting Standards (PBU) 1/2008, (1860). They illustrate this with the entity that has accounting policies shall be based on the assumption the financial result on an ongoing basis at any point of that the entity will remain a going concern in time24. The business continuity concept was further the foreseeable future and has no intentions and (or) unveiled by H.V. Simon (1861) in his monograph on needs to discontinue or significantly reduce its the balance sheet studies, which substantiate the legal operations. Hence, liabilities will be duly performed nature of the static accounting theory based on (going concern assumption). The management usually the continuity statics. The static accounting theory states in the explanatory note that the going concern contravened the rule, then in force, for evaluating assumption underlies financial statements. the entity’s ability to fulfill its obligations only in case of its dissolution since the static accounting theory The entity’s ability to continue as a going concern laid required property items and liabilities be concurrently the basis for an international standard on auditing. measured to be reported in the static balance sheet [15, ISA 570 Going Concern22 states that the going concern 16]. principle is fundamental for financial reporting. Thus, auditors must verify that financial statements are The term continuing is also discussed as part of one of compliant with this principle notwithstanding the definitions of bookkeeping coined by Bonneau, requirements of standards, local or institutional laws, a representative of the French accounting stream. He etc. As per paragraph 14 of the Federal Standards on opined that accounting is a science of orderly recording Auditing23, auditors shall analyze assessments of continuing movements of various items driving the auditee’s management makes with respect to the exchange or transformation (production) so that the entity’s ability to continue as a going concern within users can easily understand, in their totality, how they at least 12 months following the reporting period. mutually correlate, and third parties’ accounts or each 25 Table 3 collates business continuity requirements of account, in particular . the Russian and international standards on accounting We believe that this definition is a dialectical approach and auditing. to the nature of accounting. That is, notwithstanding Analyzing the data in Table 3, we conclude that the continuing movement of items (agents), requirements to the relevance of the going concern the accounting process may still be disrupted. It may assumption are based on the static balance sheet well be influenced by Marx’s works. However, concept and conditions for ensuring the ability to pay. the continuity principle was crystallized in 1961 in proceedings of M. Munitz and R. Sprouse, The number of studies into this principle significantly increased as a result of global economic crises and 24 I.N.Dmitrienko and I.N. Belousova studied the definition business accounting scandals [11]. Foreign scholars consider continuity from three perspectives, i.e. syntactical, sematic and the going concern principle as an accounting pragmatic, adhering to the logic-linguistical approach of E.S. Hendriksen fundamental, urging to develop techniques for and M.F. Van Breda. 25 evaluating and analyzing going concern factors [12–14]. Eternal and continuous motion underlies such dialectical laws as the law of unity and struggle of opposites and transformation of quantity into quality. The continuity concept is studied in various scientific disciplines. For example, quantum physics,... large discontinuous and erratic changes occurred in the bacterium, we could not 22 International Standard on Auditing 570 (revised) Going Concern then trace its identity with the passage of time. The continuity also insures was enacted with Order of the RF Ministry of Finance of November 11, that the bacterium will “stay put” long enough to allow it to be seen and 2016 № 207н. recognized. That is, even if it is changing, the effect of changes can always 23 Standard No.11 – Applicability of the Going Concern Assumption be made arbitrarily small by choosing a sufficiently small interval of time in to the Audited Entity, as approved by Resolution of the RF Government which to observe it (Bohm D. Kvantovaya teoriya [Quantum Theory]. of September 23, 2002 № 696. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1965, 729 p.).

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment 8 of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15 representatives of the Anglo-American school of As F.Kh. Doronina puts it, the business continuity accounting26. However, its inception is attributed to principle is a key concept of the accounting theory and the 1930s, when the first collective attempts were made practice in the world. Information based on in order to establish the unified accounting principles in the continuity principle and presented in financial the USA [15]. Ya.V. Sokolov’s studies confirm that statements is very important for investors to evaluate the continuity principle shall be examined further and their investment in a certain economic agent [18]. qualified as systemic. Eight of nine sources mention Financial statements shall indicate breaches in the continuity principle among other accounting ones27. the continuity principle, such as a significant reduction in production, banks' loan rejection in case of Ya.V. Sokolov compares the continuity principle with customers' breaches, suppliers' denial of a grace period, the first law of mechanics and states that it facilitates and unavailability of additional loans to offset financial the effective computation of financial results and deficiency of the entity. It reflects the creditworthiness eliminates senseless attempts to remeasure and solvency of the entity. accountable items. Why shall the entity’s assets be remeasured if it is supposed to live forever? On In Gestion de L'entreprise et comptabilité (1975), Lexique the contrary, if the entity is dissolved, its assets shall be de comptabilité (1990), P. Lasseque mentioned that it is measured at the current market value, rather than their necessary to give account of factors undermining the loss of creditworthiness and causing historical cost. Moreover, relying upon the going the bankruptcy. During 1914–1960, when giant concern assumption, we can treat the reporting year corporations came out, and many economies were only as if it relates to the business cycle distinctions, submerging into a crisis, statisticians recorded multiple without being pegged to the calendar year. Each sector instances of bankruptcy and discontinued operations of of economy has its own cycle. Thus, every management, small and middle-sized entities. Creditors and owners owners are entitled to determine the length of had to compile accounting information and analyze a business year for themselves and their company. solvency, liquidity, creditworthiness of respective 29 Furthermore, continuity implies that the accounting entities . One hundred years later creditors still do methodology, valuation and carried forward balances need proper and reliable sources of information about are consistently preserved. Enders, Whitefield and solvency and creditworthiness of economic agents. This Maure built the requirements into balance sheet information grew even more important as new forms of capital flows and institutions appear. In this respect, principles. The most important thing is that N.A. Breslavtseva, I.N. Bogataya state that balance sheet the continuity principle enables the entity to circumvent accounts remain the only reliable sources of the preparation of the balance sheet in case of information for decision making purposes and need to the ownership changes28. be constantly improved for better use30. Starting from the 1980s, the going concern assumption The content of financial statements depends on became a systemic principle of accounting in such purposes and objectives of users, national policy for countries, as the USA, Great Britain, Germany, etc. accounting and control, and operating environment, in [15–17]. According to I.N. Dmitrenko, I.N. Belousova, which the entity works and develops. The owner the continuity principle was included into the generally analyzes financial results of the respective entity in accepted accounting principles in order to support order to secure more capital. In its fiscal pursuits, the profit measurement theory and use the historical the State imposes legal requirements in various cost (cost) instead of the disposal value [15]. disciplines of law, accounting and taxation. Creditors seeking the repayment will consider accounting data 26 Sokolov Ya.V. Bukhgalterskii uchet: ot istokov do nashikh dnei and the statement of financial results to assess [Accounting: From the inception to present days]. Moscow, YUNITI Publ., the debtor’s ability to pay/repay the debt and overall 1996, 638 p. financial position. 27 Sokolov Ya.V. Bukhgalterskii uchet: ot istokov do nashikh dnei [Accounting: From the inception to present days]. Moscow, YUNITI Publ., 29 Ibid. 1996, 638 p. 30 Balansovedenie [Balance sheet studies]. Rostov-on-Don, Feniks 28 Ibid. Publ., 2004, 475 p.

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. 9 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15

In Le parfait négociant (1675), Jacques Savary was Hence, we conclude that the existing contradictions in the first who suggested preparing the balance sheet in evaluating the business continuity and creditworthiness line with its purpose31. The static balance sheet concept date back to the 19th century, stemming from two is believed to originate due to insolvency of entities. It is opposite accounting concepts of the static and dynamic intended to protect the creditor’s interests. That is why balance sheet. The dynamic balance sheet reflects in the balance sheet shall itemize accounts payable, first the business continuity concept, while the static one of all. However, scientific literature often states that conveys the discontinued operation concept that rests the borrower’s creditworthiness is evaluated to assess upon the creditworthiness of economic agents. It the balance liquidity (assets), thus making verifies our hypothesis stating that the entity’s the creditworthiness evaluation focus primitive. creditworthiness is a comprehensive accounting and analytical metric that embodies business continuity. If Eugen Schmalenbach, the author of the dynamic creditworthiness is not ensured, this may put balance sheet concept, proved the incompatibility of the borrower’s business continuity at peril since the two accounting concepts since the dynamic one solvency is a constraint on the business continuity stems from the business continuity principle, while principle and, subsequently, creditworthiness. the static one deals with the discontinued operation Insolvency may cause entities to go bankrupt and principle (Table 4). That is, the dynamic balance sheet is discontinue their operations. supposed for owners’ interests, while the static one is useful for creditors [19, p. 416–419]. It fuels Thus, the theory and practice of accounting and contradictions in enforcing the business continuity economic analysis shall synthesize accounting concepts principle and ensuring the creditworthiness. However, through integrated financial reporting. This will create scholars tried to synthesize both accounting theories in an information pool to assess the entity’s the 19–20th centuries, but this attempt led to nothing creditworthiness and solvency and subsequently (E. Schmalenbach, F. Schmidt, A.P. Rudanovsky) [20, 21]. identify and avert the continuity threat.

31 Zabbarova O.A. Balansovedenie [Balance sheet studies]. Moscow, KnoRus Publ., 2007, 256 p.

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment 10 of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15

Table 1 Values of current ratio in different countries Industry USA United Kingdom EU Japan Light industry 2.5 1.75 1.8 1.75 Food industry 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 Machine building 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 Trade 1.7 1.4 1 1.1 Average 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.15 Source: [9]

Table 2 Definitions and guidelines for business continuity management Definitions and principles Contents Business continuity Strategic and tactic ability of the entity to plan its performance in case of incidents and disruptions in order to ensure continuing business operations at the tolerable level Incident A situation that may occur and cause a disruption of the entity’s operations, destruction, losses, emergency or business crisis Principle 1 Business continuity management requirements apply to all actors of the financial sector and financial institutions. The board of directors and top executives are totally responsible for business continuity management, unlike management of other risks Principle 2 Entities shall have a sound assessment of threats and have a major operational disruption plan. The approach is not common for may entities, but it is worth observing since instances of considerable operational disruptions become more frequent Principle 3 Actors of the financial sector shall set up recovery goals in line with the potential risk of the actors in relation to financial operations. Recovery goals are formulated consistently with the risk level, which may be associated with any actor so to actually ensure the reasonable level of sustainability Principle 4 Business continuity plan shall address all aspects of internal and external communications in case of a big operational disruption. It will help tackle the crisis and preserve public confidence Principle 5 Particular cases of cross-border communications are reported in case of a big operational disruption Principle 6 Business continuity plans shall be effective and constantly updated following regular tests Principle 7 Financial authorities should also check the business continuity management process as part of their duties and use the results to evaluate actors of the financial market Source: Rukovodyashchie printsipy obespecheniya nepreryvnosti biznesa. Rekomendatsii po nablyudeniyu za nepreryvnost'yu deyatel'nosti dlya sistemno znachimykh platezhnykh sistem [Guidelines for business continuity management. Recommendations for monitoring the going concern for systemically important payment systems (SIPS)]. URL: http://www.cbr.ru/publ/Default.aspx?PrtID=prs&code=78 (In Russ.)

Table 3 Requirements of Russian and international standards of accounting and auditing to ensuring the going concern principle by economic entities Regulation Definition of continuity principle Requirements to evaluating the reasonableness of the going concern assumption 1. IAS 1 Presentation of Financial Statements When preparing financial statements, In assessing whether the going concern [IAS 1.25, 1.26]* management shall make an assessment of an assumption is appropriate, management takes entity’s ability to continue as a going concern. into account all available information about An entity shall prepare financial statements on the future, which is at least, but is not limited to, a going concern basis unless management twelve months from the end of the reporting either intends to liquidate the entity or to cease period. The degree of consideration depends on trading, or has no realistic alternative but to do the facts in each case. When an entity has so a history of profitable operations and ready

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. 11 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15

access to financial resources, the entity may reach a conclusion that the going concern basis of accounting is appropriate without detailed analysis. In other cases, management may need to consider a wide range of factors relating to current and expected profitability, debt repayment schedules and potential sources of replacement financing before it can satisfy itself that the going concern basis is appropriate 2. PBU 1/2008 Corporate Accounting Policies** An entity will continue its operations in the If the financial reporting process is coupled with foreseeable future and has no intentions and considerable uncertainty about events and need to discontinue or considerable reduce its conditions, which may raise significant doubts operations. Thus, liabilities will be performed in concerning the applicability of the going a due manner concern assumption, the entity shall indicate such uncertainty and explicitly describe the reason 3. GAAP, The Going Concern Principle Considering the available financial information, The going concern principle allows for unless otherwise stated, there is an assumption measurement of non-current assets as if they based on a professional judgment that the will be used in corporate operations, rather than entity will continue as a going concern sold. indefinitely Furthermore, the following aspects are determined: – period of time, during which the entity is able to meet its obligations; – information and analytical framework used to evaluate whether the entity is able to meet its obligations; – the effect of subsequent events on the entity’s ability to meet its obligations 4. Statement on Auditing Standards 1 There is substantial evidence of the entity’s Analytical procedures identify any indication of Codification of Auditing Standards and ability to continue as a going concern for a the entity’s inability to continue to meet its Procedures, Section 341, The Auditor’s reasonable period of time, not to exceed one obligations, use assets outside the ordinary Consideration of an Entity’s Ability to Continue year beyond the date of the financial course of business, restructure debts, and in as a Going Concern (AU Section 341)*** statements being audited case of externally forced revisions of its operations 5. ISA 570, Going Concern4* Financial statements are prepared under the When the use of the going concern assumption assumption that the entity is viewed as is appropriate, assets and liabilities are recorded continuing in business for the foreseeable on the basis that the entity will be able to future realize its assets and discharge its liabilities in the normal course of business * Order of the RF Ministry of Finance On the Enactment of International Financial Reporting Standards and Clarifications of International Financial Reporting Standards in the Russian Federation and Abolishing of Some Other Orders (Certain Clauses) of the RF Ministry of Finance, of December 28, 2015 № 217н ** Order of the RF Ministry of Finance On Approval of Accounting Principles (along with the Accounting Regulation – Corporate Accounting Policies (PBU 1/2008), Accounting Regulation – Changes in Estimates (PBU 21/2008), of October 6, 2008 № 106н (Edition of April 6, 2015). *** Statement on Auditing Standards 1 Codification of Auditing Standards and Procedures. URL: http://www.aicpa.org/research/standards/auditattest/downloadabledocuments/au-00341.pdf 4* International Standard on Auditing 570 Going Concern. URL: http://www.ifac.org/system/files/downloads/a031-2010-iaasb-handbook-isa-570.pdf Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment 12 of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15

Table 4 Disclosure of dynamic and static balance sheets Balance sheet type Purpose Corporate property appraisal Recognition of accounts payable in approaches the balance sheet Dynamic Recognition of financial results from Assessment of the existing capabilities The balance sheet presents only perspectives of ideal assets and and financial results from the property actually received amount of debt (loan), liabilities to protect owners’ interests use by recognizing the property value including interests accrued in the as needed to calculate the annual current year for the use of borrowings profit under the going concern assumption. The return on equity is the key indicators of the efficient property use Static Regular assessment of the property The precise definition of the property Voluntarily or coercively recognized status to protect creditors’ interests. value, i.e. the resource endowment of debt (loan) is recognized in the balance Assurance of the sufficiency of an entity, through the discontinued sheet, including interests accrued for monetary proceeds from conditional operation concept. Property shall be the entire period of the loan. Liquidity sale of assets to discharge liabilities to stated at the price of possible sale as ratios are used for assessment creditors. of the balance sheet date. purposes According to J. Richard, the static Value of net assets is the key indicator balance sheet theory results from of solvency understanding of a protracted period of practical evaluation of entities' financial position using the accounting methodology, which is based on the legislative culture of the Roman law. It implies that the less frequent instances of insolvency and bankruptcy, the higher legal stability of civil turnover Source: Authoring, based on Zabbarova O.A. Balansovedenie [Balance sheet studies]. Moscow, KnoRus Publ., 2007, 256 p.; [19, 20]

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Figure 1 Changes in and forecast of current liquidity ratio and net working capital

Source: Authoring, based on Rosstat data. URL: http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/finance/#

Acknowledgments

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Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment 14 of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 N.E. Babicheva et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 3–15

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Please cite this article as: Babicheva N.E., Lyubushin N.P., Kondrat'ev R.Yu. The Business Continuity Concept in the Assessment of Creditworthiness of Economic Agents. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 3–15. 15 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.3 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28 pISSN 2073-8005 Risk, Analysis and Evaluation eISSN 2311-9438

Translated Article† EXPANDING ANALYTICAL CAPABILITIES OF THE RATIO ANALYSIS OF ENTITIES' SOLVENCY THROUGH CASH FLOWS

Lyubov' Yu. LASKINA ITMO University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation [email protected]

Article history: Abstract Received 6 July 2017 Importance The article studies ratios assessed through cash flows, i.e. cash flow ratio and interest coverage ratio, Received in revised form and their application to capture a more reliable and comprehensive view of the entity's solvency and financial 19 September 2017 sustainability. Accepted 23 October 2017 Objectives The research examines cash flows of the entity as an additional source of information to manage Translated 16 March 2018 corporate solvency. Available online 27 March 2018 Methods The research is based on financial statements of airport operators for the period spanning from 2011 until 2014. I also compare the cash flow coverage ratio and cash interest coverage ratio with traditional ratios, JEL classification: G39, L25, L93 such as current ratio and interest coverage ratio respectively. Conducting a correlation analysis, I trace the nexus between the above pairs of ratios. Results As the research proves, the current ratio and cash flow coverage ratio do not correlate strongly. Users should better use respective cash flow ratios to get more full and accurate information. Relying on their strong correlation, the cash interest coverage ratio can be applied to a greater extent to analyze the financial standing of entities. Conclusions and Relevance As I conclude, if supplemented with the cash interest coverage ratio, the interest coverage ratio can not only provide a broader and deeper view of the entity's financial standing, but also be used Keywords: solvency, current ratio, cash to specify the credit rating of the entity. It will be more adequate and accurate to assign a credit rating on flow coverage ratio, credit rating the basis of the cash interest coverage ratio since it allows for cash flow.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Doing† business in today's world turning to Entities attain an appropriate solvency if they are able the innovative development path, the Russian entities to perform their payment obligations in a timely and outright face the need to act and evolve under new adequate manner. This raises one of the crucial issues, circumstances. Living this period, they realize the sheer which contemporary companies consider their first importance of being financially sustainable and healthy. priority to address. Therefore, they should not only improve the solvency management process but also refine their methods for its analysis and evaluation.

†For the source article, please refer to: Ласкина Л.Ю. Расширение Such procedures are applied by business proprietors аналитических возможностей коэффициентного анализа and external users. If the entity is insufficiently solvent, платежеспособности предприятий на основе денежных потоков. Экономический анализ: теория и практика. 2017. Т. 16. № 11. this may cause the loss and waste of its own and raised С. 2145–2162. URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.16.11.2145

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. 16 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28 resources, to say nothing about its publicity and finance, it is worth mentioning that it is not reputation. the assessment of relative indicators that becomes one of the principal steps in the procedure, but rather The concept of solvency is customarily linked to interpretation of the findings. The validity of liquidity, i.e. the entity's ability to convert its assets into the financial position assessment considerably depends cash and satisfy current liabilities with it only [1]. on the quality of the conclusion inferred upon The ratio analysis has gained traction in the modern the assessment of the ratios. practice of evaluating the solvency level. These are financial ratios and their assessment that still attract I shall note that the ratio analysis entails some issues of attention of many specialists, notwithstanding other assessing traditional solvency ratios [3–5]. The financial techniques exist. standing cannot be perennially assessed in an adequate way even if the resulting ratios are compared with In Russia, the so called official1 and originally designed standard ones. Furthermore, analyzing trends in techniques (V.V. Kovalev2, A.D. Sheremet with financial ratios, users often overlook benchmarks or co-authors3, N.P. Lyubushin and N.E. Babicheva4) are determine optimal bounds of the ratios, focusing only more in use, having just a different mix of underlying on their changes. metrics. Relative indicators play a key role in this respect, with liquidity ratios prevailing. Zooming in the issues, it is noticeable that the comparison of the resulting ratios and their Other ratios also shed light on the entity's ability to pay benchmarks comes across significant limitations since and repay. For example, the interest coverage ratio may individual operational conditions are not taken into be an additional metric describing the entity's ability to account [5]. The resulting ratios and their benchmarks pay. SPARK is one of the largest databases providing are often difficult to compare since sectoral specificsis comprehensive financial, statistical and other neglected. Rating agencies outside Russia set and information on companies from various sectors. It also release such benchmarks on a regular basis [4]. refers to this metric for purposes of solvency analysis. The interest coverage ratio is a sort of indicator Moreover, the validity of the ratio analysis results also measuring the likelihood of the entity's default. It is depends on initially available information used for extremely important from perspectives of the solvency evaluation purposes. However, financial reporting data level. As mentioned in the research [2], the ratio shall do not necessarily assure the accuracy and reliability of exceed 1 to mean that the entity is able to repay information to describe the entity's financial position, interests in due time and manner. solvency and liquidity. The reason is that financial reporting data tend to be unrelated (first of all, As for the importance of the ratios to evaluate accounting revenue and profit) [6]. Users more often corporate solvency and make managerial decisions on than not complain about their poor representative quality for further assessment and managerial decision- 1 Federal Law of the Russian Federation On Insolvency (Bankruptcy) of October 26, 2002 № 127-ФЗ; Resolution of the RF Government On making on corporate finance since such data can be Approval of Financial Analysis Rules for Court-Appointed Administrators of manipulated by owners and management in order to June 25, 2003 № 367; Order of the RF Ministry of Economic disguise the real situation. Furthermore, traditional Development On Approval of the Methods for the Federal Tax Services to Consider and Analyze the Financial Position and Solvency of Strategically ratios complicate a fair presentation of the financial Important Entities and Organizations of April 21, 2006 № 104. positions due to distinctive valuation of assets and 2 Kovalev V.V. Finansovyi analiz: metody i protsedury [Financial accrual accounting. analysis: methods and procedures]. Moscow, Finansy i Statistika Publ., 2002, 559 p. Specialists suppose that the matter of traditional ratios 3 Sheremet A.D., Saifulin R.S., Negashev E.V. Metodika finansovogo can be resolved if cash flow data are used inter alia. It is analiza [Financial analysis methods]. Moscow, INFRA-M Publ., 2001, cash that measures all the financial relationships 208 p. the entity enters into. Irregular and uneven proceeds 4 Lyubushin N.P., Babicheva N.E. [Analysis of methods for evaluating corporate financial standing]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = and payments may engender some negative Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2006, no. 22, pp. 2–7. implications, thus undermining, say, liquidity, that is URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/v/analiz-metodik-po-otsenke- a solvency maintenance factor [7]. finansovogo-sotoyaniya-organizatsii (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. 17 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

Figures from cash flow statements are much more puts the development of aviation land infrastructure as problematic to be manipulated since they rely upon one of the priority goals. cash flow, which is specific and real by nature, rather Airport operations become the subject of multiple than conditional. This is the reason why cash flow studies in Russia not only because the transportation figures lay the basis for some ratios, which elucidate sector needs to be converted into an industry, which the corporate financial position in a more complete and would be adequate to current needs and prospects of reliable manner (Table 1) [8]. the national development, but more due to the fact that Assuming that cash flows are used to assess cash flow the quality and state of airport infrastructure leave ratios, users focus on the most liquid part of working much to be desired. Airports have been reducing in assets – cash and cash equivalents. It also helps them numbers for a long time. Currently, according to look into the future financial situation. Hence some the Federal Air Transport Agency, there are 297 scholars suggested using cash flows to assess liquidity. operational airports in Russia. As compared with Moreover, cash flows are more convenient to ensure the 1990s, as specialists note [13, 14], the number is higher precision of traditional ratios applied to financial four times as low as it used to be (Fig. 1). analysis [9, 10]. Therefore, for purposes of analyzing The situation especially affected the regions where corporate solvency in a short run, some scholars the availability and accessibility of transport drastically suggest that users should compare such ratios as cash differs from that in the European part of Russia, though flow coverage ratio and current ratio, critical needs cash air flights are the only transportation option for some coverage ratio and quick ratio, cash interest coverage regions. The Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts ratio and interest coverage ratio (Table 2). are both cases in point. I should note that, although foreign experts (I mean While the number of airports are falling, ridership is those ones outside Russia) do assess cash flow ratios, observed to rise, thus causing wear and tear of fixed foreign literature does not specify the extent to which assets, which ranged from 40 to 80 percent in 20116. the given pairs of ratios correlate. Although the Russian specialists raise the question of applying such ratios As the federal special-purpose program, Development of more frequently, such ratios are almost out of use to Russia's Transport System (2010–2020), the current evaluate and describe corporate financial standing. circumstances inhibit a growth and use of transit capabilities, development of the common economic To provide the rationale for cash flow ratios, I study to space in the country. Tremendous financial injections what extent the cash flow ratios and traditional ratios are needed to make the things going forward [15]. correlate in a solvency analysis. Therefore, to make development investments, most In this case, I review such cash flow ratios as cash flow airports have to obtain substantial loans or search for coverage ratio and cash interest coverage ratio. external investors. Both options imply that airport The assessment is based on figures of the Russian operators shall maintain their solvency and stable airport operators. financial position.

Relating to infrastructure, airport operations are fairly For analysis purposes, I selected twelve Russian airport one of the key vessels of economy worldwide and operators from five federal districts within 2011 and nationwide. The condition of such sectors, their 2014 inclusive. development and respective processes shape These are the competitiveness of national economies [11, 12]. The same idea is corroborated in the federal special- • AO Vnukovo International Airport (Moscow); purpose program5, which defines the transportation • OAO Volgograd International Airport; system development as a premise for implementing an innovative model of economic growth. The program • OAO ;

5 Resolution of the RF Government On the Federal Special-Purpose Program, Development of Russia’s Transport System (2010–2020), 6 Air transport review. Aviation Business Portal. of December 5, 2001 № 848. URL: http://www.ato.ru/ (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. 18 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

• OAO Pobedilovo Airport (Kirov); Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between the current ratio and cash flow coverage ratio amounts • OAO Kazan International Airport; to 0.4097, thus signifying a frail relation, albeit • AO Ulyanovsk Airport; an existing one, between both ratios.

• OAO International Airport; Similarly, I assessed correlation coefficients of the other pair of ratios to test to what extent the interest • AO Tolmachevo Airport (); coverage ratio KIVC and cash interest coverage ratio KCICR • OAO Airport; correlate (Table 4). The interest coverage ratio of airport operators exceeds • OAO International Airport; the average ratio of the other infrastructure-related • OAO Airport; industry – transport, being 4.259. Values of the interest coverage ratio reveal some tendency. The lowest • AO Airport. interest coverage ratio is observed in smaller regional As stated in reporting forms for 2011–20147, the above companies (Pobedilovo Airport – Kirov) or those ones pairs of ratios were assessed per each company and with a decline in operating profit (Vnukovo International analyzable year: current ratio Кcur.lqdt and cash flow Airport – Moscow). These are the airport operators coverage ratio KCFCR (Table 3). which faced the toughest difficulties in repaying interests. Few of the sampled companies have the current ratio within the generally advisable range of values, with The cash interest coverage ratio is slightly higher than the average value in the industry as a whole (from 1.2)8. its traditional analogue (in most of the companies) and This is evidence of a most challenging situation, when changes in the same way throughout the analyzable entities are unable to perform their current liabilities period (Fig. 4). without any difficulties and using their available current There are unusual cases indeed concerning the way assets. Regional airports were found to be exposed to the ratios change. For instance, the ratios of Vladivostok the highest repayment risk (those ones operating in International Airport changed throughout the last year the Volga Federal District and Far Eastern Federal of the analyzable period in different directions, ranging District). from 0.73 to –17.38 of KIVC and from 6.27 to 8.53 of KCICR As compared with the traditional current ratio, the cash (Fig. 5). flow coverage ratio, as a cash-based one, gives much To get a more accurate view of the extent to which more meager results. It means that entities virtually the interest coverage ratio and cash interest coverage generate insufficient cash (or critically little). ratio correlate, and understand the trends of their However, the current ratio and cash flow coverage ratio movement, I carry out a correlation analysis. According mostly develop and change in a synchronized way in to the Chaddok scale, the pair of analyzable ratios has most cases (Fig. 9). a strong positive relationship. When I additionally analyze the interest coverage ratio and cash interest In the mean time, another situation can be seen. When coverage ratio by assessing Spearman’s rank correlation one indicator rises, the other one changes in coefficient, I find a strong direct relationship between an opposite way (Fig. 3). the ratios. The rank correlation coefficient is 0.627.

That is the reason why I conducted a correlation Therefore, the research reveals a frail correlation analysis and calculated Pearson’s product-moment between the current ratio and cash flow coverage ratio. correlation coefficient and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, tracing such an untypical trend among 9 Laskina L.Yu. [Features of determination and estimation of financial homogeneous values of coefficients behavior. leverage: Domestic and foreign experience]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2012, no. 38, pp. 55–61. 7 Center for Corporate Disclosures. URL: http://www.e-disclosure.ru/ URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/v/osobennosti-opredeleniya-i- (In Russ.) otsenki-finansovogo-leveridzha-otechestvennyy-i-zarubezhnyy-opyt 8 Federal State Statistics Service. URL: http://www.gks.ru/ (In Russ.) (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. 19 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

Internal users and would-be investors may get more n = 1 + 3.222 lgN, representative and reliable information by using where n stands for a number of groups; the cash-based option from the other pair, i.e. cash interest coverage ratio and interest coverage ratio. As N is the number of observation points (values of they demonstrate a close correlation, they enable the ratios); certain users to guess that the cash interest coverage ratio has a broader scope of application to analyze lgN is the common logarithm of N. the financial position of entities. Thus, I find out that the resulting range of values gives Some rating agencies are known to use the traditional n=5.56, or 5–6 groups. Breaking down the values into interest coverage ratio as a tool to assign a credit rating five ranges, I assign likewise a lower rating to a range to an entity, which characterizes its ability to timely with lower values (Table 6). repay interests and financial injections made by Applying the grouping method, I classify the sampled creditors and investors [16]. companies by their value of the cash interest coverage For example, as S&P treats entities that hold ratio into groups, which match the ranges of the given borrowings made up of bank loans and have no credit ratio for 2014 (Table 7). I do the same manipulations rating, they assign the so called synthetic credit rating with the interest coverage ratio (Table 8). just on the basis of the interest coverage ratio (Table 5). Based on this distribution, I conclude that the entities Moreover, the interest coverage ratio shows how many has equally low credit ratings by cash interest coverage times for the reporting period the entity has managed ratio and traditional interest coverage ratio, and, vice to earn so as to repay interests and loans. However, it versa, high ratios make them eligible for better credit says nothing as to whether the entity has enough ratings [18]. Hence, the more often entities coincide by money to do so. It will definitely be more reasonable area of the same rating if grouped by a certain rating, and reliable to assign a credit rating on the basis of the more complete and reliable the financial standing the cash interest coverage ratio since it allows for information. Should the entity mismatch the same the category of cash flow [17]. group in terms of its rating, a more thorough study be needed. Relying upon the calculations, I conclude that if Assuming a close correlation between the traditional the interest coverage ratio is supplemented with and cash flow ratios – interest coverage ratio and cash the cash interest coverage ratio to evaluate corporate interest coverage ratio, it is possible to gauge solvency, it will not only give a broader and deeper view an approximate range of the cash interest coverage of the financial standing and stability, but may be used ratio for large entities of a certain sector. Ranking to determine the entity’s credit rating [19]. Investment the cash interest coverage ratio by value in opportunities of entities may be adequately evaluated if the descending order and using Sturge’s rule, I their credit ratings are specified in accordance with determine how many groups they make: the international standards [20].

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. 20 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

Table 1 Financial ratios of entities by cash flow analysis Ratios Assessment Formula Economic Substance

Cash Flow to Debt Ratio КCFD = CFо / TDL, A predictor of financial inability to pay to evaluate the corporate

where CFо is net cash flow from operations; creditworthiness TDL is gross debt liabilities

Dividend payout to CAPEX ratio КCAPEX = (Dо – Dpaid) / CAPEXtotal, A metric showing the entity’s ability to finance its future growth

where Dpaid is dividends paid; through its operations. It is used to evaluate the entity’s ability to pay debts and dividends CAPEXtotal is the amount of capital expenditures

Cash-based Return on Assets КCROA = (Dо + Ipaid + T) / A, A metric showing the ability of the entity’s assets to generate

where Ipaid is interests paid; cash flows. It is used to check whether the accounting return is T is taxes paid; secured with real cash proceeds A is total assets Source: [8]

Table 2 Comparison of traditional liquidity ratios and cash flow ratios Ratio Assessment Formula Traditional Ratios

Current Ratio Кcur.lqdt = CA / CL, where CA is current assets; CL is current liabilities

Quick Ratio Кql = (CA – Inv) / CL, where Inv is inventories

Interest coverage ratio КIVC = EBIT / Ibrw where EBIT is earnings before interests and taxes;

Ibrw is the amount of interests on loan Cash-based Ratios

Cash Flow Coverage Ratio КCFCR = CFо / CL,

where CFо is net cash flow from operations

Critical Needs Cash Coverage Ratio КCNCCR = ( CFо + Ibrw) / (CL + Ibrw),

where Ibrw is the amount of interests on loans

Cash Interest Coverage Ratio КCICR = ( CFо + Ibrw + Н) / Ibrw, where T is taxes paid Source: [9]

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. 21 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

Table 3

Current ratio Kcur.lqdt and interest coverage ratio KIVC of airport operators, 2011–2014 Entity 2011 2012 2013 2014

Kcur.lqdt KIVC Kcur.lqdt KIVC Kcur.lqdt KIVC Kcur.lqdt KIVC Vnukovo International Airport 8.62 0.79 18.17 3.4 9.5 0.9 9.54 –0.13 Volgograd International Airport 1.52 0.17 2.17 1.48 3.17 1.96 4.06 2.43 Anapa Airport 21.88 5.91 1.78 –0.04 5.27 0.78 4.88 0.51 Pobedilovo Airport – Kirov 0.7 –1.35 0.73 –2.38 0.2 –0.54 1.54 –3.3 Kazan International Airport 0.72 –0.17 1.08 –0.05 0.79 0.06 1.88 –1.28 Ulyanovsk Airport 0.99 0.39 0.3 0.7 10.45 –1.04 0.7 0.21 Irkutsk International Airport – – – – 1.36 1.37 1.78 1.07 Tolmachevo Airport 1.43 1.12 1.1 0.85 1.62 1.46 3.86 2.85 Omsk Airport 0.69 1.26 1.03 0.99 1.46 1.63 2.07 1.88 Vladivostok International Airport 12.29 8.1 0.96 0.64 0.61 0.18 0.21 0.18 Khabarovsk Airport 1.19 0.72 1.78 0.49 2.57 0.36 2.23 0.05 0.88 0.43 1.3 0.68 1.72 0.57 1.71 1.62 Source : Authoring

Table 4

Interest coverage ratio K IVC and cash interest coverage ratio K CICR of airport operators, 2011–2014 Entity 2011 2012 2013 2014

KIVC KCICR KIVC KCICR KIVC KCICR KIVC KCICR Vnukovo International Airport 2.74 3.5 1.05 3,21 1.09 1.56 0.87 0.92 Volgograd International Airport 16.65 7.33 43.65 76,71 – – – – Anapa Airport – – 20.6 1,13 5.28 13.35 3.51 9.03 Pobedilovo Airport – Kirov 8.18 –7.37 –17.61 –13,85 –8.06 –7.99 12.2 –4.54 Kazan International Airport 1.94 –2.6 11.05 0,2 13.82 6.03 25.49 –225.07 Ulyanovsk Airport 16.35 97.35 359.59 3 267,59 1.23 –0.42 1.2 1.76 Irkutsk International Airport – – 9.58 2,39 8.55 9.89 13.01 12.83 Tolmachevo Airport 3.15 5.03 7.78 8,64 6.74 5.87 7.19 7.08 Omsk Airport 7.42 17.95 28.63 39,02 48.36 74.01 1,875.41 2,145.95 Vladivostok International Airport 6.73 7.05 11.97 12,43 0.73 6.27 –17.38 8.53 Khabarovsk Airport 45.45 51.42 5.87 6,43 6.17 5.2 6.55 2.22 Yakutsk Airport 34.6 52.96 4,487 10,278 – – – – Note . Some companies have been operating without making any interest payment, thus impeding the assessment for the last period. Source : Authoring

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. 22 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

Table 5 A correlation of credit ratings and interest coverage ratios of large entities: S&P's method Bounds of interest coverage ratio Rating < 0.2 D 0.2–0.65 C 0.65–0.8 CC 0.8–1.25 CCC 1.25–1.5 B– 1.5–1.75 B 1.75–2 B+ 2–2.25 BB 2.25–2.5 BB+ 2.5–3 BBB 3–4.25 A– 4.25–5.5 A 5.5–6.5 A+ 6.5–8.5 AA > 8.5 AAA Source: [16]

Table 6 The range of the cash interest coverage ratio in large entities operating in airport operations Range number Range of the interest coverage ratio The number of CICR values within the respective intervals 1 Up to 3 6 2 3–6 5 3 6–9 7 4 9–20 4 5 Over 20 4 Source : Authoring

Table 7 Grouping of entities ranked by cash interest coverage ratio

Rating by Range ofKCICR values KCICR Airport

KCICR C < 3 1.56 Vnukovo International Airport B From 3 to 6 5.2 Khabarovsk Airport 5.87 Tolmachevo International Airport BB From 6 to 9 6.03 Kazan International Airport 6.27 Vladivostok International Airport A From 9 to 20 9.89 Irkutsk International Airport АА Over 20 74.04 Omsk Airport Source : Authoring

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. 23 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

Table 8 Grouping of companies ranked by the interest coverage ratio

Rating by KIVC Range of KIVC values Values of KIVC Airport D < 0.2 – – C 0.2–0.65 – – CC 0.65–0.8 0.73 Vladivostok International Airport CCC 0.8–1.25 1.09 Vnukovo International Airport B– 1.25–1.5 – – B 1.50–1.75 – – B+ 1.75–2 – – BB 2.00–2.25 – – BB+ 2.25–2.5 – – BBB 2.5–3 – – A– 3–4.25 – – A 4.25–5.5 – – A+ 5.5–6.5 6.17 Khabarovsk Airport AA 6.5–8.5 6.74 Tolmachevo International Airport AAA > 8.5 8.55 Irkutsk International Airport 13.82 Kazan International Airport 48.36 Omsk Airport Source : Authoring

Figure 1 Trends in changes of the number of airports in Russia, 1991–2015

Source : Federal Air Transport Agency

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. 24 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

Figure 2

Trends in values of K cur.lqdt and K CF : Evidence from Vnukovo International Airport, 2011–2014

Source : Authoring

Figure 3

Trends in values of K cur.lqdt and K CF : Evidence from Ulyanovsk Airport, 2011–2014

Source : Authoring

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. 25 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

Figure 4

Trends in values of K IVC and K CICR : Evidence from Vnukovo International Airport, 2011–2014

Source : Authoring

Figure 5

Trends in values of K IVC and K CICR : Evidence from Vladivostok International Airport, 2011–2014

Source : Authoring

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. 26 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 L.Yu. Laskina / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 16–28

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I, the author of this article, bindingly and explicitly declare of the partial and total lack of actual or potential conflict of interest with any other third party whatsoever, which may arise as a result of the publication of this article. This statement relates to the study, data collection and interpretation, writing and preparation of the article, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Please cite this article as: Laskina L.Yu. Expanding Analytical Capabilities of the Ratio Analysis of Entities' Solvency Through Cash Flows. 28 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 16–28. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.16 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40 pISSN 2073-8005 Finance of Organizations. eISSN 2311-9438 Analysis of Accounting Systems

Translated Article† HARMONIZATION OF IRAQI ACCOUNTING OF FIXED ASSETS USING THE RUSSIAN ACCOUNTING STANDARDS AND IFRS

Bilal A. ALSAEGH University of Mosul, Mosul, Republic of Iraq [email protected]

Natal'ya V. ZYLEVA Tyumen State University, Tyumen, Russian Federation [email protected] Corresponding author

Article history: Abstract Received 19 April 2017 Importance This article deals with the issues related to Iraqi accounting rules, which do not include an equivalent Received in revised form of Russian PBU 6/01 Accounting for Fixed Assets, and IAS 16 Property, Plant and Equipment, containing instead 16 May 2017 just several procedures for organizing the accounting of fixed assets established in the Uniform Accounting Received in final form System, the Federal Accounting Law of the Republic of Iraq. 2 September 2017 Objectives The article aims to substantiate proposals for the harmonization of Iraqi accounting for fixed assets Accepted 30 October 2017 providing a draft national standard for discussion. Translated 20 December 2017 Methods We have analyzed the information contained in the regulatory documents (IAS 16, PBU 6/01, Uniform Available online 27 March 2018 Accounting System of the Republic of Iraq), with a view to comparing the proposed options for accounting for fixed assets, compiling positives and identifying ways of reforming Iraq's accounting for fixed assets. JEL classification: Е23, М20, М41, N40 Results The article demonstrates the need for a national standard for accounting for fixed assets to harmonize the accounting system in Iraq. In order to harmonize Iraqi accounting of fixed assets, we recommend that the draft standard Property, Plant and Equipment (Fixed Assets) presented in the article be used as a new national standard for the Republic of Iraq. Keywords: fixed assets, reforming, Conclusions and Relevance The proposed draft is close enough to the international accounting practice. However, accounting system regulation it focuses on the real possibility of its practical application in the Republic of Iraq.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Property, Plant and Equipment (PP&E)† constitute being very significant for productivity. Please refer to a substantial portion of the total assets of any entity, Table 1 for information on a share of PP&E in total assets of industrial entities listed in the Iraq Stock †For the source article, please refer to: Алсаег Б.А.М., Зылёва Н.В. Exchange (ISX). Only 13 out of 25 industrial companies Гармонизация иракского бухгалтерского учета основных средства listed in the ISX (as of August 31, 2017) submitted с использованием норм российского стандарта и МСФО. Международный бухгалтерский учет. 2017. Т. 20. № 23. С. 1350–1363. financial statements for FY 2015. URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/ia.20.23.1350

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. 29 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40

In Iraq, the procedure for fixed asset accountingis system inter alia by adopting the international stipulated only in the Uniform Accounting System1, accounting standards. which is the law promulgating the principles of national PP&E valuation and accounting issues underlie formal accounting. proceedings by such Iraqi scholars as J.E. Al-Thabi, The Uniform Accounting System has been a vehicle for I.S. Mohammed [2], Sawsan Ahmad Saeed [3], the centralized economic planning, economic and social H.H. Hussein, A.H.N. Bni lam [4], O.H.A. Alkarimsalum, development, control and compliance with principles of H.H. Hashim [5], Ali Mal-Allah Abd-Allah [6]. However, the economic system at the governmental level for they mostly focus on the way the valuation influences many years, ensuring appropriate use of economic financial results, without analyzing accounting resources. Although Iraq is the place where both State- regulations. owned and private companies operate, this national Magdalena Lech and Małgorzata Kamieniecka analyzed document still remains in effect, being the sole PP&E valuation during the transition to IFRS [7]. In guidelines for the fixed asset accounting process since the mean time, issues of PP&E valuation methods and the Iraqi Accounting Standards simply do not exist. approaches were reviewed by Anna Majtánová, Lívia It should be mentioned that the Uniform Accounting Sojková [8], Lisa Deane [9], economists of Municipal System encompasses such principles that prove to be Development & Lending Fund [10], Elizabeth S.R.M. Cole irrelevant not only to ordinary users but also focusing on depreciation issues [11]. accountants. This fact avers that the Uniform We should point out Steven M. Bragg [12], Daniela Accounting System shall be updated. Cretu [13], who dealt with PP&E accounting. Jörg Siebert PP&E are defined as movable and immovable property and Dieter Schlagenhauf [14] reported on SAP software, of tangible and intangible nature, which contradicts which combines asset accounting concepts and the fact that nonphysical items are classified as determines the effect of requirements to PP&E intangible assets. valuation under IFRS and US GAAP.

Disputable issues also arise from requirements to initial Scholars actively study issues that arise during and subsequent valuation of PP&E. For instance, the reform of the Russian accounting system from the useful life of a PP&E item does not influence perspectives of the market economy and IFRS. the depreciation amount since depreciation is The Russian researchers also concern issues of computed at the legally prescribed rate, rather than harmonizing PP&E valuation and accounting. through a formula. Among recent researches, we shall point out In our opinion, it is the right time for the Republic of a comparison of the PP&E accounting terminology used Iraq to reform the PP&E accounting practice since in the Russian accounting standards (Russian PBU) and practical discrepancies of accounting principles and IFRS (E.S. Druzhilovskaya) [15], analysis of PP&E assessment of the financial result make financial valuation approaches based on international practices reporting data of entities incomparable [1, p. 44]. (V.S. Kazakova [16] and A.V. Novikova, E.V. Kudinova [17]), study into the effect of initial and subsequent As part of this research, we attempt to draft the Iraqi measurement at fair value on the tax burden of national standard on PP&E accounting mainly by the Russian entities (O.N. Kuznetsova) [18], comparison adopting the IFRS practices so as to harmonize of the Russian accounting requirements with IFRS the accounting rules. However, we also rely upon (T.V. Zav’yalova, E.V. Gudozhnikova, E.A. Vasil’eva [19], the positive outcome of Russia's accounting reform I.V. Rybalkina, N.N. Kosteva [20]). since Russia succeeded in harmonizing its accounting We believe that the Republic of Iraq should rely upon

1 other countries’ expertise and practices of accounting Federal .(الموحد المحاسبي النظام) Uniform Accounting System Board of Supreme Audit of Iraq. URL: http://www.d-raqaba- reforms. Russia has come a long way in developing m.iq/pages_ar/system_muwahad_ar.aspx/ its accounting system and adopting IFRS. We consider (Access date: March 16, 2017)

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting 30 Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40

Russia’s experience as the most valuable for Iraq since 9. Accounting information in financial reporting. accounting systems of both countries have similar Any accounting standard shall start with the General traits, i.e. predominant governmental regulation of Provisions section. The section shall pronounce accounting processes and an impact of taxation laws on the purpose of the standard, stating, for example, that the way figures are recognized in accounting records this standard regulates the generation of information [1, p. 38]. on the availability and movement of PP&E in accounting Exploring and summarizing requirements of IAS 16 records and its disclosure in financial reporting. Property, Plant and Equipment2, considering Furthermore, there should be mentioned assets, which the imperfection of accounting processes in Iraq and are out of the scope of the standard. For example, the need for national accounting standards that would biological assets associated with agriculture. govern the way PP&E are accounted for, and analyzing The above section shall also enlist definitions and terms requirements of Russian PBU 6/01 Accounting for Fixed used in the standard, such as PP&E (fixed assets), useful Assets3 driving the convergence of the Russian life, wear and tear, depreciation, impairment, historical companies with international practices, in this article we cost, residual value, etc. set out our own draft Iraqi Accounting Standard Fixed Assets, describe its possible sections and clarify As per PP&E accounting principles, that are currently the inadequacy of some clauses of Iraq’s Uniform effective in Iraq and set forth in the Uniform Accounting Accounting System, which is currently in effect. System, PP&E are regarded as movable and immovable property of tangible and intangible nature, which has Drawing upon principles of IAS 16 and Russian been acquired or constructed internally by the entity PBU 6/01, we outline the general design of and situated in or outside Iraq. Such property is the proposed Iraqi Accounting Standard Fixed Assets. acquired to produce goods or deliver services, rather 1. General provisions. than to be sold.

2. Recognition criteria and determination of In our opinion, this definition is incorrect since a classification group. the intangible nature is characteristic of intangible assets, i.e. other items, which are accounted for in 3. Initial valuation of PP&E. accordance with another Iraqi Accounting Standard. Furthermore, the definition fails to mention 4. Depreciation on PP&E. the intention of using the asset for a long time and 5. Expenditures for upgrade (retrofitting) and ongoing administrative purposes of the entity. repair. Russian PBU 6/01 does not unfold the idea of fixed 6. Impairment of PP&E. assets, but it sets forth four conditions for recognizing the asset as a PP&E item (paragraph 4, PBU 6/01). As we 7. Valuation of PP&E upon their recognition. see it, the definition is too large for the Iraqi standard, but the definition of fixed assets shall definitely specify 8. Disposal of PP&E. that the item is intended for long-term use, i.e. the period of time exceeding 12 months or usual operating cycle, if it 2 International Accounting Standard 16 – Property, Plant and is more than 12 months. Equipment: Addendum № 8 to Order of the RF Ministry of Finance, On the Adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards and IAS provide a more concise definition of fixed assets. As Clarifications to International Financial Reporting Standards in the Russian Federation, of December 28, 2015 № 217н (edited as of June 27, 2016). per IAS 16, PP&E are tangible items that are held for use in URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_193590/ the production or supply of goods or services, for rental to (In Russ.) (Access date: 16.03.2017) others, or for administrative purposes and expected to be 3 Russian Accounting Standard PBU 6/01 Accounting of Fixed Assets: used during more than one period. Order of the RF Ministry of Finance of March 30, 2001 № 26н (edited as of May 16, 2016). URL: As opposed to IAS, the Iraqi law and Russian standard http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_31472/ (In Russ.) envisage that the entity shall not plan any subsequent (Access date: March 16, 2017).

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. 31 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40 resale of a PP&E item. We believe, this indication is not General provisions of the Iraqi Accounting Standards necessary since it mentions the need for long-term use shall indicate a unit of PP&E accounting. IAS 16 does not of the asset for productive or administrative purposes. prescribe a unit of measurement, which is to be used to recognize PP&E, and refers to a professional judgment Having reviewed definitions of PP&E in the said concerning recognition criteria in each particular case. regulations, we formulate the following one that would Iraqi accountants have yet to learn making be advisable for the draft Iraqi Accounting Standard: a professional judgment. Thus, we consider it Property, Plant & Equipment shall mean tangible reasonable to indicate a measurement unit of PP&E movable and immovable property the entity acquires or accounting in both the Russian Accounting Standards internally constructs with the intention of using it to and Iraqi Accounting Standards and adopt an inventory produce goods or deliver services throughout item for this purpose. The inventory item of Property, the period exceeding 12 months. Plant and Equipment is a physically separate item The regulation should also feature some notions used intended for autonomous functions, or a separate set of to outline the PP&E accounting procedure: structurally connected items.

– useful life is the period of time, during which the asset PP&E are carried in accounting records at their will be held so that the entity could use it in line with historical cost (cost). The following section of the Iraqi the expected productivity or capacity and anticipated Accounting Standards – Recognition Criteria and Determination of the Classification Group – shall specify wear and tear that depends on operating conditions the case, in which the cost of a PP&E item shall be (the number of shifts), natural conditions and effect of recognized as an asset. We guess IFRS provisions may an aggressive environment, repair system; be used in this respect, i.e. the cost of an item of – depreciation on PP&E is a regular allocation of Property, Plant and Equipment shall be recognized as the asset value throughout its entire useful life; an asset only if there is a probability that the entity will receive economic benefits from this item and the cost – impairment is a decrease in the value of an item due of the item can be accurately measured. to wear and tear, obsolescence or changes in market prices; The idea of probability shall be incorporated to reflect the extent of uncertainty, to which the entity may lose – impairment loss is the difference between or receive future economic benefits from a respective the carrying amount of the asset and its fair value less accounting item. Certainty can be ensured if principal the cost of disposal; risks and economic advantages are transferred to – historical cost is the value, at which the asset is initially the factual holder of assets. In this respect, it is recognized in accounting records; important to remember about such an accounting assumption as substance over form. Thus – carrying amount is the value, at which the asset is the ownership right is out of question at all. If economic recognized in financial statements after accumulated benefits are not obvious, acquisition costs are posted to depreciation and impairment losses; expenses of the current period.

– residual value of the asset is an estimated amount, In the list of conditions for recognizing an accounting which the entity would have received from item as PP&E, Paragraph 4г, PBU 6/01 states that the disposal of the asset at the current moment after the entity intends to derive economic benefits (income) deduction of expected disposal costs, if the useful life from PP&E in the future, but overlooks the reliability of of the asset expired and the state of the asset were the item’s cost measurement. typical of its expired useful life; In fact, the reliability of the asset measurement seldom – fair value is the amount that has been received upon becomes a challenging point. However, the sale of the asset or paid to transfer the obligation the measurement may appear too biased in certain as part of the orderly transaction of market actors as cases or have no cases to rely upon. For example, of the valuation date. the case when a new type of assets is constructed

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting 32 Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40 through financial subsidies, being unparalleled in only to provide information on the groups in financial the market. It is problematic to assess future economic reporting, but also use them in the revalued benefits from such an asset. amount-based accounting model. Reviewing the composition of the Iraqi PP&E groups, we point out Many different PP&E were grouped so to align their that the latter two groups (biological assets intended for accounting treatment and recognition in financial water supply and production, and deferred operating reporting. The Uniform Accounting System of Iraq expenses) can be excluded out of the list since their classifies Property, Plant and Equipment into accounting specifics is set forth in Iraqi Accounting the following main groups, such as land, buildings, Standard 11 – Accounting in Agriculture4 and Iraqi facilities and transportation routes, machines and Accounting Standard 2 – Intangible Assets5. After the two equipment, vehicles, tools and templates, furniture and groups are deleted from the list, the remaining office equipment, biological assets for water supply and classification groups of PP&E will be compliant with IAS. production, deferred operating expenses (expenses for acquisition of services to be delivered within a period Initial Measurement of Property, Plant and Equipment is exceeding one year, including incorporation expenses). another important section of the Iraqi Accounting In this grouping, PP&E are kept in accounting records Standards. The cost of PP&E is formed depending on and subsequently disclosed in financial statements by the way the entity obtains each particular fixed asset. specified group. Sale-purchase agreements are the most popular method to acquire PP&E. IAS 16 also classifies Property, Plant and Equipment, (a) land plots; (b) land plots and buildings; (c) machines As for initial recognition of purchased PP&E, and equipment; (d) vessels; (e) aircraft; (f) motor the Uniform Accounting System of Iraq clarifies that, in vehicles; (g) furniture and add-in engineering fittings; this case, the value of the asset includes the purchase (h) office equipment. In IAS this classification is given as price, all acquisition expenses and cost of putting part of the accounting model at revalued amount. the item into operation for its intended use. Assuming that a class of PP&E is a group of fixed assets, The regulation refers to the situation when the land plot which are similar in the nature and corporate use, if with an old building on it is purchased. In this case, a certain PP&E item is remeasured, the same shall be the historical cost of the land includes expenses for done with the other assets relating to the same class of the demolition of the old building, clearing and recovery fixed assets. of the land.

PBU 6/01 does not distinguish classification groups, Considering that provisions of the Iraqi Accounting with paragraph 5 only specifying that Property, Plant Standards on the historical cost of purchased PP&E do and Equipment include buildings, facilities, not contradict IAS, though being less illustrative, we materials-working and power machines and equipment, suggest outlining the draft Iraqi Accounting Standard on measuring and controlling instruments and devices, the basis of IAS 16.16–16.20 on the measurement of computing equipment, vehicles, tools, production and Property, Plant and Equipment to be recognized as household stock, draught animals, productive livestock assets. As per Russian PBU 6/01, when purchasing and cattle, breeding stock, perennial plantings, local an item of Property, Plant and Equipment, its historical roads and other relevant items. On the one hand, they cost is made up of actual costs for acquisition, may be regarded as assets, which can be accounted as construction and production net of Value Added Tax PP&E, but, on the other hand, as groups of items and other recoverable taxes. Enlisted in the Russian stipulated in paragraph 18 of the Russian PBU, i.e. the entity shall use one of the methods for charging 4 Iraqi Standard of Accounting 11 – Accounting in Agriculture, Federal Board .(المحاسبة فـي النـشاط الزراعـي) depreciation on a group of homogeneous items of PP&E of December 31, 1998 throughout the entire useful life of the items within of Supreme Audit of Iraq. URL: http://www.d-raqaba- m.iq/pdf/rule11.pdf (Access date: March 16, 2017). the group. 5 Iraqi Standard of Accounting 2 – Intangible Assets (as edited as of Federal Board of Supreme .(الموجودات غير الملموسة) (Thus we believe that classification groups shall be January 1, 2013 stipulated in the draft Iraqi Accounting Standards not Audit of Iraq. URL: http://www.d-raqaba-m.iq/pdf/rule2.pdf (Access date: March 16, 2017).

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. 33 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40

PBU, actual costs included into the cost of an item do value of the asset received seems to be more evident. not contravene international standards. Neither Russian, nor international standards stipulate how the difference between the cost of the asset As per the Uniform Accounting System of Iraq, received and asset given up shall be accounted for, exchanging PP&E from different classification groups, which is important for the Iraqi Accounting Standards. the entity may make a capital loss (gain) as the difference between the carrying and market value Having analyzed all information, we conclude that of the transferred property. The regulation provides no the draft Iraqi Accounting Standards shall feature explicit instruction but we can infer that their market the following aspects in the paragraph Initial Recognition value indicated in the exchange contract will be of Property, Plant and Equipment in Exchange: Initial the historical cost of PP&E acquired as a result of recognition of PP&E received in exchange depends on the exchange. This aspect is envisaged in paragraph 11 a loss or gain from the exchange as the difference of Russian PBU 6/01, the historical cost of Property, Plant between the carrying amount and market value of and Equipment acquired under non-pecuniary contracts is the property transferred, classification group, to which made up of the value of assets transferred or to be the transferred items pertain, and cash flows in transferred by the entity, which is determined through the exchange transaction: the price the entity usually asks for similar assets in – if the exchange results in a loss, notwithstanding comparable circumstances. the classification group of the asset, the asset Exchange transactions are the more thorough area of received shall be measured at fair value indicated in IAS. Measuring a PP&E item acquired in exchange at fair the exchange contract; value, the international standards also describe cases – if the exchange of PP&E from different groups results when it is not applicable to the cost of a PP&E item: in gain, the asset received shall be measured at fair (a) the exchange transaction lacks commercial value indicated in the exchange contract; substance or (b) the fair value of neither the asset received nor the asset given up is reliably measurable. If – if the exchange of PP&E from the same group results the acquired item is not measured at fair value, its cost in a gain without monetary proceeds, the asset is measured at the carrying amount of the asset given received is measured at fair value indicated in the up. exchange contract;

IAS regulates the way the entity determines whether – if the exchange of PP&E from the same group results the exchange transaction has commercial substance, in gains and monetary proceeds, the asset received is considering the extent to which future cash flows are measured at fair value indicated in the exchange expected to change as a result of the transaction contract net of the entire unrecognized gain, but (IAS 16.25). To ascertain commercial substance of including a percentage of gains derived from the exchange transaction, the value of a portion of the exchange. the entity's operations, that is typical of the entity, shall Gains (losses) from exchange of PP&E is carried as reflect cash flows net of taxes. The result of the analysis investment profit (losses). may be obvious even if the entity does not make similar computations. Lease as a type of finance lease helps to acquire PP&E on deferred terms. However, Iraqi law and Russian As per IAS, fair value is reliably measurable if limits of standards do not refer to this method of acquiring reasonable measurement of the asset value vary PP&E. withing an insignificant deviation span for the asset, or it is possible to reliably assess the extent to which Whereas the Iraqi laws on accounting do not set any different estimates are probable within the limits and national standards governing lease accounting issues, use it to measure the fair value. If the entity is able to these issues shall be stipulated in the fixed asset reliably measure the fair value of the asset received or accounting standard. It will be easier for an Iraqi given up, the fair value of the asset given up is used to accountant to apply PP&E accounting requirements, if measure the cost of the asset received, unless the fair all of them are consolidated in the same regulation.

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting 34 Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40

The accounting treatment of lease transactions can be the carrying amount of the asset, it is recognized in profit clarified in IAS. These are the provisions which will and loss over the life of a depreciable asset as a reduced underlie the draft Iraqi Accounting Standard. As per depreciation charge. IAS 17 – Leases6, at the commencement of the lease term, Fair value (market value) of PP&E acquired under lessees shall recognize finance leases as assets and a deed of gift (donation), i.e. free of charge, is regarded liabilities in their statement of financial positions at as the historical cost of such assets. This principle exists amounts equal to the fair value of the leased property or, if in both the Iraqi and Russian regulations and shall lower, the present value of the minimum lease payments, remain in the draft Iraqi Accounting Standard. each determined at the inception of the lease. The discount rate to be used in calculating the present value of The Uniform Accounting System and Iraqi Accounting the minimum lease payment is the interest rate implicit in Standard 3 – Capitalization of Borrowing Costs set forth the lease, if this is practicable to determine; if not, issues of initial recognition of PP&E acquired under an the lessee's incremental borrowing rate shall be used. Any investment loan8. As per the Uniform Accounting initial direct costs of the lessee are added to the amount System, the historical cost of an asset shall include recognized as an asset. Subsequently, these assets are interests on loans, which directly relate to depreciated equally with other PP&E of the entity. the acquisition, construction or production of the asset taking considerable time for its preparation for The entity may acquire Property, Plant and Equipment intended use. However, the Uniform Accounting System as a pecuniary subsidy from the State. Neither the Iraqi does not specify the moment when costs are no longer accounting regulations, nor the Russian PBU on capitalized. Iraqi Accounting Standard 3 suggests accounting of Property, Plant and Equipment provide ceasing to capitalize borrowings costs, when all work is recommendations on acquisition of PP&E and lease almost completed to prepare the asset for intended use accounting. In our opinion, the draft Iraqi Accounting or sale. Iraqi Accounting Standard 3 also indicates that Standard should be supplemented with the information interests on the investment loan are treated as on the historical cost of PP&E acquired with the State expenses reducing the current profit after borrowing subsidies as per paragraphs 24, 26, 27 of IAS 20 – costs are no longer capitalized. These requirements for Accounting for Government Grants and Disclosure of accounting of borrowing costs are similar to those ones Government Assistance7. in paragraph 8 of PBU 15/08 Accounting of Borrowing As per IAS 20, PP&E acquired through government grants Costs9 and IAS 23.20 Borrowing Costs10. are initially recognized at fair value. Grants may be Hence the draft Iraqi Accounting Standard shall govern accounted for as deferred income or by deducting it in the initial recognition of PP&E acquired under arriving at the carrying amount of the asset. If the grant is the investment loan agreement, indicating that interests recognized as deferred income, it is posted to profit or loss on loans, which directly relate to the acquisition, on a systematic basis over the useful life of the asset. If construction or production of the asset taking the grant is accounted for by deducting it in calculating

8 Iraqi Accounting Standard 3 – Capitalization of Borrowing Costs 6 International Accounting Standard 17 – Leases: Addendum № 9 (edited as of March 1, 2013) ( ). Federal Board of رسملة كلف القتراض to Order of the RF Ministry of Finance to Order of the RF Ministry of Supreme Audit. URL: http://www.d-raqaba-m.iq/pdf/rule3.pdf Finance, On the Adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (Access date: March 16, 2017). and Clarifications to International Financial Reporting Standards in the Russian Federation, of December 28, 2015 № 217н (edited as of June 27, 9 Russian Accounting Standard PBU 15/2008 – Accounting Regulation: 2016). Order of the RF Ministry of Finance of October 6, 2008 № 107н (edited URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_193591/ as of April 27, 2012). URL: http://base.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi? (Access date: March 16, 2017). req=doc;base=LAW;n=131607 (Access date: March 16, 2017) 7 International Accounting Standard 20 – Accounting of Government 10 International Accounting Standards 23 – Borrowing Costs: Grants and Disclosure of Government Assistance: Addendum 12 to Order Addendum № 14 to Order of the RF Ministry of Finance to Order of of the RF Ministry of Finance to Order of the RF Ministry of Finance, the RF Ministry of Finance, On the Adoption of International Financial On the Adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards and Reporting Standards and Clarifications to International Financial Reporting Clarifications to International Financial Reporting Standards in the Russian Standards in the Russian Federation, of December 28, 2015 № 217н Federation, of December 28, 2015 № 217н (edited as of June 27, 2016). (edited as of June 27, 2016). URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_193537/ URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_193569/ (Access date: March 16, 2017). (Access date: March 16, 2017).

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. 35 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40 considerable time to get ready for its intended use, are the useful life ingrained in it. The law sets up included into the historical cost of the asset and the depreciation rate in line with the useful life of interests on the investment loan are treated as different PP&E items. For example, building – 3%, tow – expenses reducing the current profit after borrowing 15%, motorbike – 25%, tent – 50%, furniture – 10%, costs are no longer capitalized. Afterward it is necessary books – 100%. Types of PP&E and respective to make a reference to Iraqi Accounting Standard 3 with depreciation rates are enlisted on more than 20 pages more detailed information on the capitalization of of the legislative regulation. Therefore, the entity is not borrowing costs. entitled to set up a useful life of a PP&E item since law-makers have decided on it. The entity can construct an asset on its own, instead of purchasing it in the market. As per the Iraqi Accounting In our opinion, entities shall be empowered to have its System, such assets are measured as an amount of own say on the term, during which they intend to use actual costs. The Russian standard sets up identical the asset so as to derive profit from it. We suggest requirements, without distinguishing the historical cost adhering to factors stipulated in IAS 16.56. Russian PBU of PP&E purchased and produced (constructed). IAS 6/01, paragraph 20, also presents detailed guidelines offers the most exhaustive recommendations for for determining the useful life of PP&E. assessing the historical actual cost of PP&E that Although the Uniform Accounting System of Iraq the entity has constructed. According to IAS, the actual prescribes four methods of depreciation (straight line, cost is assessed in line with all costs for designing, sum-of-the-years' digits (SYR), units of production and construction (assembling), mounting and delivery. Costs revaluation), most of them are virtually impracticable. cease to be attributable to the value of PP&E For example, as the regulation rules, the revaluation constructed, when a PP&E item is installed at method shall be applied only to calculate a depreciation the intended place of operation and used for its on livestock and perennial bearer plantings. immediate purpose. The regulation gives incorrect representations of Costs incurred to use or relocate the item are not the SYR method. The useful life is not used in such included into its carrying amount. Costs for putting calculations at all. The law only states that the item into full operation, losses at the initial stage of the depreciation rate under the SYR method doubles. If PP&E operation are not capitalized. As per IAS, costs for this provision is interpreted closely to the original text, it dismantling of equipment from a land plot and land will be difficult to trace the annually reducing rehabilitation are not included into the value of the land depreciation unless we assume the depreciation rate plot, being subject to depreciation. shall be calculated through the carrying amount, rather than the historical cost. The units of production method The value of PP&E is reduced through depreciation. In is applied to air transport since depreciation is this respect, Iraqi Accounting Standards shall have calculated in line with flight hours. a section dedicated to depreciation of Property, Plant and Equipment. Thus, the straight line method appears to be the only practicable method as compared with those PP&E Depreciation depends on the historical (recoverable) depreciation methods permitted by the Iraqi law. cost, useful life and depreciation methods. According to However, we agree with IAS (paragraphs 43–62) that the Russian and international standards, the entity the applicable depreciation method shall reflect establishes the useful life of a PP&E item and the expected way the entity plans to consume economic depreciation method for groups of assets when benefits from the asset. As opposed to IAS, inour the item is entered into its accounting records. opinion concerning PP&E depreciation, it is necessary to Iraqi accounting laws do not provide for this possibility regularly (every three to five years unless significant for entities. Thus the useful life of a PP&E item has no economic events take place) revise not only impact on the amount of depreciation since the depreciation method applicable to the asset, but depreciation is calculated at the legally prescribed also its useful life. If the expected consumption of depreciation rate, rather than a specific formula with future economic benefits embedded in the asset

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting 36 Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40 significantly changes, the useful life shall be modified charge depreciation on PP&E. However, we may guess accordingly11. that depreciation is no longer charged, if the item is disposed of in any manner. Provisions of IAS 16 help to As for possible methods for charging a depreciation on illustrate the process, depreciation of an asset ceases at PP&E, the draft Iraqi Accounting Standards shall the earlier of the date that the asset is classified as held for explicitly prescribe options to calculate depreciation sale and the date that the asset is derecognized. amounts under each depreciation methods, drawing upon examples of IAS (paragraph 62) or Russian PBU We suggest the proposed draft should indicate (paragraph 19): accounting options for subsequent costs incurred for PP&E maintenance, such as overhaul or ongoing repair – straight-line depreciation method implies charging (Costs for Retrofitting (Rehabilitation) and Ongoing a default depreciation amount throughout the entire Repair). Thus subsequent costs may be attributable to useful life of the underlying asset unless the residual costs incurred during the period, or capitalized. Costs value remains unchanged. The depreciation amount is are included into the asset value if it is substantially calculated on the basis of the historical cost retrofitted or rehabilitated, while similar costsfor (recoverable amount) of the item and depreciation overhaul, that is the recovery of original properties and rate assessed in line with the respective useful life; qualities, are attributable to expenses incurred during – sum-of-the years' digits method implies reducing the period. So are costs for ongoing repair. the depreciation amount throughout the entire useful life of the underlying item. The depreciation amount is The asset value may happen to fall significantly during calculated on the basis of the historical cost the useful life of PP&E. For example, more rapid aging (recoverable amount) of the item and the ratio of of an asset than expected, physical damage, etc. In this the number of years remaining before the expiry of case, it is necessary to consider the impairment of the useful life and the sum of digits of the useful life a PP&E item and disclose it in the following section of years; the draft Iraqi Accounting Standard, Depreciation of Property, Plant and Equipment. – units of production method implies charging the depreciation amount in line with the expected use or IAS give a good insight into depreciation of assets. As 12 productivity. The depreciation amount is based on the per IAS 36 Impairment of Assets , at the end of each physical indicator of output (work) in the reporting reporting period, an entity is required to assess period and the ratio of the historical cost (recoverable whether there is any indication that an asset may be amount) of the item and the expected output for impaired. Impairment of assets may result from the entire useful life. significant changes in the technological, economic conditions, obsolescence of an asset, physical damage Whereas the revaluation method of depreciation is to an asset and changes in the market environment, permitted in Iraq only to calculate depreciation on etc. If any of such indications is in place, the entity shall the core herd animals and perennial bearer plantings, measure the recoverable amount of the asset. The we believe that this method shall be integrated into recoverable amount is the higher of two values: fair Iraqi Accounting Standard 11 Accounting in Agriculture, value of the asset less costs of disposal and value in rather than the national standard. use. In our opinion, value in use is difficult to measure, The Uniform Accounting System of Iraq outlines especially in the Iraqi market. Thus only fair value can the only instance when the entity ceases to charge be used. depreciation, i.e. it no longer uses the item due to military operations. This mention definitely stems from 12 International Accounting Standards 36 – Impairment of Assets: the political situation in the country. The regulation Addendum № 23 to Order of the RF Ministry of Finance to Order of does not enumerate other cases when entities cease to the RF Ministry of Finance, On the Adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards and Clarifications to International Financial Reporting Standards in the Russian Federation, of December 28, 2015 № 217н 11 Mohammad B.A., Zyleva N.V. [Reforming the accounting for oil (edited as of June 27, 2016). wells depreciation in Iraq]. Mezhdunarodnyi bukhgalterskii uchet = URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_193674/ International Accounting, 2016, no. 12, pp. 16–28. (In Russ.) (Access date: March 16, 2017).

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. 37 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40

The asset gets impaired, its carrying amount exceeds the entity may incur additional expenses and receive the fair value. As mentioned above, the international some earnings, which are to be posted to the Profit and standard scrutinizes the impairment testing process Loss. These issues shall be reviewed in the section of and requirements to the way impairment amounts shall the Iraqi Accounting Standards Disposal of Property, be accounted for. We suggest that the Iraqi Accounting Plant and Equipment. Standard should refer to this international standard in Like in all standards on accounting, the section terms of impairment accounting issues. Accounting Information in Financial Reporting shall The draft Iraqi Accounting Standard shall have become the final part. We believe that the Iraqi entities' the section Measurement of PP&E after Recognition that financial statements shall disclose such information of differentiates the valuation of an asset after recognition PP&E as (a) assets classified as held for sale; depending on an accounting model. As per IAS, (b) existence and scope of titles for PP&E, and PP&E the entity shall choose one of two PP&E accounting pledged to secure the fulfillment of obligations. models, i.e. accounting at the historical cost (actual Following sections of financial statements shall present costs) (IAS 16.30) or at revalued amount (IAS 16.31–42). information on each group of PP&E, such as Would-be investors need to know which model the accounting model upon recognition, useful life; the entity adheres to in PP&E accounting after their depreciation method; fair value of PP&E, if it recognition since various models imply different ways significantly differs from the carrying amount (the cost for collecting financial reporting information. model); impairment losses included into (reinstated as The cost model conveys the historical cost principle, part of) profit or loss (the cost model); growth or drop in being preferable under IAS. As this model implies, the value resulting from revaluation (the revaluation financial statements shall present the cost of PP&E less model). accumulated depreciation on PP&E and accumulated If PP&E items are carried in accounting records and impairment losses. As per the revaluation mode, financial statements at the revalued amount, the time, during which PP&E are used, is one of the following information shall be disclosed: (a) the critical factors for PP&E, increasing the probability the revaluation date; (b) involvement of of changes in the market value and divergence of the independent appraiser; (с) the carrying amount, the historical and fair value of an item. When such which would be recognized, if assets were not divergence is impossible to neglect, IAS 16 provides for accounted through the cost model, by each class of an alternative approach to defining the subsequent revalued PP&E; (d) growth in the revalued amount, measurement of PP&E, i.e. the current market value, or indicating changes for the reporting period and recoverable amount less accumulated depreciation, restrictions to the distribution of the amount among unless the market value is known. shareholders. In our opinion, the revaluation model give a clearer If the draft Iraqi Accounting Standard on PP&E view of the value of assets, especially in case of real accounting is composed as we describe above, it will be estate, the market value of which increases in contrast convenient to use because it will be compliant with to the carrying amount. the structure of IAS but its captions will be familiar to Although long-term acquisition is a PP&E item, its value the Iraqi users. The proposed recommendations will becomes subject to derecognition at some point of help entities get a better understanding of the way they time. Thus if PP&E are disposed or incapable of should account for PP&E. It will also help national generating economic benefits (income) in the future, accounting principles and international standards their value shall be derecognized. The accounting converge. We hope this comparison and proposed draft treatment of PP&E ends up in derecognition of for PP&E accounting, in some way or another, will be the actual (historical) cost and accumulated embodied in Iraqi regulatory documents governing depreciation on the item. When derecognizing PP&E, the PP&E accounting procedure.

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting 38 Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40

Table 1 The fixed assets value to total assets value ratio (statistics for 2015) Name of Company Carrying amount of PP&E, IQD Total value of assets, IQD Ratio, % Baghdad for Packing Materials (Private) 650,068,018 1,008,209,537 64 Baghdad Soft Drinks (Private) 89,890,627,879 226,907,311,687 40 Al – Hilal Industries (Mixed) 147,598,044 3,326,096,895 4 Iraqi Company for Carton Manufactures (Mixed) 1,353,853,337 1,739,554,014 78 Iraqi Date Processing and Marketing (Mixed) 4,112,973,379 22,506,071,056 18 Iraqi Engineering Works (Mixed) 1,174,628,215 1,582,025,199 74 Iraqi for Tufted Carpets (Private) 18,366,600 2,790,375,822 1 AL – Kindi of Veterinary Vaccines (Mixed) 1,434,241,056 6,287,325,944 23 Al-Mansour Pharmaceuticals 842,204,861 8,006,206,671 11 Modern Chemical Industries (Private) 1,384,159,820 9,914,364,840 14 Modern Construction Materials Industry (Mixed) 359,284,339 1,639,283,379 22 Ready Made Clothes & General Trading (Mixed) 33,310,233 2,713,658,631 1 The Light Industries (Private) 640,197,367 14,189,524,966 5 Source: Iraqi Stock Exchange data. URL: http://www.isx-iq.net/isxportal/portal/companyGuideList.html

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Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. 39 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 B.A. Alsaegh et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 29–40

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We, the authors of this article, bindingly and explicitly declare of the partial and total lack of actual or potential conflict of interest with any other third party whatsoever, which may arise as a result of the publication of this article. This statement relates to the study, data collection and interpretation, writing and preparation of the article, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Please cite this article as: Alsaegh B.A., Zyleva N.V. Harmonization of Iraqi Accounting of Fixed Assets Using the Russian Accounting 40 Standards and IFRS. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 29–40. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.29 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54 pISSN 2073-8005 Finance of Organizations. eISSN 2311-9438 Analysis of Accounting Systems

Translated Article† ANALYTICAL CAPABILITIES OF MODERN INFORMATION SYSTEMS AS PART OF THE INCOME-BASED BUSINESS VALUATION METHOD

Semen Yu. BOGATYREV Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected]

Article history: Abstract Received 30 October 2017 Importance The research focuses on new software and information tools for valuation. The research deals with Received in revised form aspects of business valuation based on the income-based valuation method. 1 December 2017 Objectives I scrutinize aspects of adjusting the valuation framework to new analytical capabilities and Accepted 4 December 2017 demonstrate distinctive scope of information and analytical data on ratios and metrics stored in such systems and Translated 6 March 2018 available for financial analysts. Available online 27 March 2018 Methods The research is based on the DCF method from perspectives of income-based business valuation. Results I analyze capabilities of software and technological tools of modern information systems and measure JEL classification: G32 the value of different items using the DCF method through various models. The article displays positive aspects of analytical tools of the information systems and identifies what restrictions and limits they impose on a financial analyst. The article unveils the limited nature of data resources in foreign information systems and indicates the Russian alternative information resources for improving the use of the DCF-based models. Conclusions and Relevance Financial analysts may benefit from new capabilities of model information systems. Keywords: income-based method, They streamline primary data collection and processing for business valuation purposes and standardization of discounting, cash flow, discount rate, financial reporting. The article outlines the future of new information resources and their use in business information system valuation. The findings may prove useful in financial analysis and financial reporting.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Introduction capabilities of modern information systems, such as Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Russia’s Prime, etc. The† article examines how information technologies, business valuation methods can be used by financial The Use of Forecasting Capabilities of analysts. The materials are intended to help financial Information Systems as part analysts use new capabilities of information systems of the DCF Model effectively. For purposes of effective value analysis, I unfold specific details of analytical and information Free Cash Flow to Equity and Free Cash Flow to the Firm are assessed on the basis of financial statements. Forecast estimates to be embedded into the valuation † For the source article, please refer to: Богатырев С.Ю. model are made through data extrapolation. Аналитические возможности современных информационных систем при реализации методов доходного подхода к оценке In international literature on valuation, authors стоимости бизнеса. Финансовая аналитика: проблемы и решения. 2018. Т. 11. № 1. С. 43–61. overview different materials that may produce statutory URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/fa.11.1.43

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. 41 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54 indicators to be integrated into assessments of cash the Russian retail company Magnit starring the Russian flows [1]. stock market in 2015.

Value analysts may be perplexed with a more Free cash flow of Carrefour SA may be insufficientto complicated algorithm for predicting future figures. extrapolate cash flows since there was a gap in 2013. Appraisers point out situations when specialized assets Extrapolation methods are quite well developed as and conventional profit-making trading businesses are accountants master this area very well as part of measured [2]. Specialized editions on valuation keep on financial reporting under International Financial arguing about the applicability of valuation standards to Reporting Standards [14]. different types of appraisals [3]. Let us have a look at Dollar Tree, Inc. from the USA. Fig. 2 It would be the simplest way to assume that the gained depicts its profile in the Thompson Reuters database. momentum of cash flow growth will remain in I deliberately choose this company as it illustrates the future. The relationship between cash flow and its the U.S. stock market. Dollar Tree, Inc. has good determining factors is incidentally believed to survive. performance results in stock trading and fundamental Modern methods for financial reporting indicators underlying its value. standardization, identification and substantiation of value factors are strongly linked with mathematical After the data are uploaded, I can get the table with models based on real figures [4]. metrics to be used in valuation.

The income-based valuation framework can be The simplest method to project cash flows is to assess configured in line with complex models arising from components in the given proportion against sales more advanced mathematical methods, such as options volume of the company [15]. As for Free Cash Flow to [5–7]. Complex models and methods of valuation are the Firm, financial leverage is considered to remain developed with neural networks as well [8, 9]. Such unchanged. This simplified approach implies that new studies indeed are more popular in case of small and investment in fixed assets is made in the same family business [10]. proportion of depreciation charges. For example, this It is noteworthy that scientific literature presents idea is voiced by authors of the multi-step cash-flow studies juxtaposing and complementing income-based prediction model [16]. and cost approaches [11]. It streamlines the reciprocal If the analyst presumes depreciation should reflect development of synthetic valuation methods. For annual costs to be incurred to keep the existing example, valuation based on the residual value [12, 13]. capacity, the difference between fixed capital The first step in cash flow forecasting is to analyze investment and depreciation equals additional the uploaded information on the company as showed contributions to the capital stock. The difference in Fig. 1. depends on an increase in the company’s capacity. The components below are needed to make respective Brief Description of Careffour SA. This company is assessments: interesting for valuation purposes. The company is a blue chip in the French stock market. There is a lot of • projected increase in sales; value analytics on the company. It is examined by • estimates of After Tax Net Operating Profit is for Free leading fundamental analysts and included into many Cash Flow for the Firm (FFCF) or profit margin for Free investors’ portfolios. Here I view it from perspectives of Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE); available analytical and other information. • proportion of additional fixed capital investment For purposes of income-based valuation, Carrefour SA (incremental FCInv) and increase in sales volume (output); is an exemplary case of applying such methods. It demonstrates a growth in its revenue and intends to • ratio of working capital investment (WCInv) and increment its profit even more. In a way, it resembles increase in sales volume (output);

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business 42 Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

• estimation of financial leverage (debt ratio, DR). I calculate auxiliary metrics: EBIT margin – 12%, increase in sales volume – USD 2,211 million. As for margin, it is worth mentioning different mentality in approaching relative figures. A Russian accountant, Table 2 provides my calculations of cash flow in say, treats relative values, such as markup, against the forecast period in line with the existing ratios and the base, that is cost. In this respect, the accountant is growth trend. in agreement with a procurement manager. The metric Such relatively scarce cash flow stems from is an effective tool for financial analysis and managerial considerable investment in fixed and working capital. efforts. Margin is a tool employed by the Western The final figure will grow if an increase in sales economists, being an unrelated analytical metric projected by Thompson Reuters is taken into account. gauged as the percentage of cost and markup (as one or another type of profit). It is convenient to compare A separate point of the menu is intended for forecasting a number of companies, trace dynamics, measure an increase in sales volume (Fig. 3). I open it and get proportions and ratios, which would be easy to use in the value of sales volume for the selected period (Fig 4). calculations. It is also possible to choose the average value in the table, which was previously suggested as This shall be kept in mind when handling traditional an optional forecast for three years to come. foreign analytical ratios. This is not about good or bad, but rather just about models of thinking. EBIT margin remains unchanged. However, the absolute increase will be lower: EBIT margin – 12%, increase in It is the way for assessing the ratio of capital sales volume – USD 1,789 million. expenditures net of depreciation expenses to an increase in sales, and the ratio of different sales Therefore, FCFF will be calculated as shown in Table 3. volumes (increase in working capital, increase As seen in the calculation, FCFF rose substantially, in sales). though an increase in revenue is forecast to be 5 Certain ratios are projected for the forecast period percent less. So, it proves the importance of being when future cash flows are predicted. prudent in forecasting.

Indicators of Dollar Tree, Inc. are precisely forecast in The similar scheme based on net investment in fixed accordance with the recent financial statements and working capital can be used to calculate FCFE but uploaded from the Thompson Reuters database. net profit will be an initial component in this case.

Let us examine the financial statements of Dollar Tree Referring to Dollar Tree, Inc., which traders and and make relevant calculations using signed-off fundamental analytics tend to, DLTR.O stock ticker financial statements starting from 2015. acquires source data for calculations likewise. The calculations are based on Income Statements and Net profit is measured through net profit margin, i.e. Cash Flow Statements. Processed data are presented in the ratio of net profit and revenue. Table 1. It is not only net profit that differentiates The company’s revenue grew by 25.7 percent in 2015 the calculation. What makes it different is that it year-on-year. involves net borrowings. Net borrowings are measured The return on an increase in fixed and working capital is on the basis of the target ratio of equity and assessed in the table. borrowings.

I calculate FCFF, that is the cash flow to the entire Source data for the calculation are as follows. Sales invested capital, provided that a 25.7 percent increase volume is USD 10,390.57 million, net profit margin is perseveres. 4.85%, increase in sales is USD 1,789 million (Table 4).

EBIT margin is sourced from the special section of Please note that all leading information systems employ the menu – Estimates. their own valuation models. They more often than not

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. 43 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54 use the dividend discount model (for example, the income-based approach or comparative approach is Bloomberg and Thompson Reuters). The valuation used [18]. model is also fitted with an analytical forecast module, The Factsheet report provide principal points needed to which depicts an estimated increase in earnings per examine the financial and economic profile of share as needed for the model. the company. This report is generated in the Thompson The valuation option is activated in the menu of Reuters database, being prepared in three colors, i.e. the company profile Fig.( 5). red, orange and blue.

Fig. 6 reflects how it works in case of Dollar Tree, Inc. in It is worth mentioning the behavioral toolkit used to the Thompson Reuters database. visualize some behavioral strategies with colors. Behavioral factors are considered to form the discount Estimates are given in three formats intended for users, rate [19]. analysts (StarMine affiliated with Thompson Reuters) and industry-specific purposes, review (Fig. 7). Table 5 provides source data to be used in the one stage model through the DCF method and constant increase Value Analysis by the One-Stage Discounted in profit. Cash Flow Valuation Model Under the CAPM model, the discount rate is 23%. After I figure out the cash flow, I apply it to business Therefore, the market value of the share is BRL 77.31, valuation. with the current quotation amounting to BRL 14 per share. First of all, I shall mention that the DCF models are extremely sensitive to input data. Even if an estimated The surprising result may be explained with the Price to increase in revenue changes by 5 percent, cash flow Earnings ratio (P/E ratio). While the average P/E ratio is demonstrates serious modifications. If the discount rate 23 in the sector, it is 9 for Petroleo Brasileiro. is added, the final result will fluctuate even more. The behavioral analysis technique is likely to be appropriate in this case. Hence value analysts usually rely upon the scenario-based approach to analyze business I conduct the scenario-based analysis to delve into valuation results and subsequently make their the issue. Table 6 comprises different metrics for further judgments. assessment of the share price.

The one stage model for equity valuation through Under favorable circumstances, the value increases up the DCF method is expressed as follows: to BRL 90.59 per share. Unfavorable conditions do not cause dramatical changes in the value. V 0=FCFE 0(1 + g )/(r−g), where FCFE0 stands for free cash flow to equity; Two-Stage Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Model g is the rate of cash flow growth; There are models of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) r is the discount rate on equity. and free cash flow to equity (FCFE).

Let us measure the equity through a common stock of The model features two stages of an increase in cash Petroleo Brasileiro. Scholars majoring in valuation pay flow. At the first stage (estimation), cash flow changes great attention to the way the discount rate is set up in year-on-year, while being fixed during the second stage. post-crisis circumstances. Most analyzable cases relate to situations when a smaller entity needs to be Valuation formulas are as follows: appraised [17]. • in case of cash flow to the firm (FCFF): Assessing the discount rate, it shall not be overlooked Business Value=∑n FCFF /(1 +WACC)t + that the discount rate and assumptions shall be (t=1) t + FCFF /(WACC−g)• 1/(1+ WACC)n ; determined identically, notwithstanding n+1

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business 44 Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

• in case of free cash flow to equity (FCFE): The share value at the designated time (present value) is KRW 36,519.73. The sum of values totals Equity Value=∑n FCFE /(1+ r)t + (t=1) t KRW 62,360.44. It results from the StarMine’s model n + FCFE n+1/(r−g)• 1/(1+ r ) . (Thompson Reuters database).

Terminal value, or the value in the post-forecast period, As the forecast reveals, StarMine Agency assigns much can be measured using the P/E ratio. In this case, higher value to one share on the basis of the market the estimated profit is used. value, which significantly exceeds the current quotation.

It is very important for this model to measure Analytical models are generally closed, being kept as the terminal value since it accounts for a significant portion know-how by agencies and advisers. Hence, it is often of the total value. In its simplest expression, the rate problematic to understand the logic of analysts’ actions of cash flow increase is the same at each of the two stages. unless they provides relevant clarifications in For analytical purposes, please refer to Hyundai Steel an addendum to the computational part. South Korea. The company details are stored in Conclusion the Thompson Reuters database. A more detailed profile is uploaded as a pdf-file. Although the income-based approach and respective methods have been expected to become less popular I determine source metrics for valuation purposes. for a long time, they still remain the most frequent They’d better be taken from the Estimates menu in option for valuation and value analysis. The above the relevant section of the system. For convenience material explains the reasoning behind it. purposes, the system can visualize figures as graphs. You may not be subscribed to such leading databases First, modern information systems allow for quick and as Thompson Reuters or Bloomberg. Issuers’ financial proper assessment of all components underlying statements can be found on websites of financial the computational framework of the income-based companies. approach. They are easy to handle and configure.

I upload the data as a table and start the valuation Second, predictive capabilities of the income-based process using them. Sales per share, net profit margin valuation methods rise substantially after various and increase in sales are measured on the basis of techniques of sectoral specialists, financial analysts are the available report. Investment in fixed and working combined in a single information pool used for capital is specified in the Cash Flow Statement. valuation purposes.

Table 7 displays the way input data to be uploaded into Third, trying to attract clients, developers of information the two-stage DCF model are measured by processing systems designed perfect valuation modules, source reporting data of the company. calculators for quick value measurements, which are Equity risk premium, ERP, is applied to gauge the discount evident to rest upon the income-based valuation rate on equity. It is available in Thompson Reuters and method. The calculators have precision settings, with Bloomberg databases. The calculation algorithm is their results being close to the market value of listed conventional as set forth in literature on valuation [20]. stocks. They persuade the clients trading in the stock market to opt for valuation. As for South Korea, this command generates a graphical result in the Thompson Reuters database. Fourth, rich information tools streamline and facilitate Uploading it into an Excel file, I get a convenient body of the convergence of the income-based and comparative data. The beta coefficient of the company is assessed by approaches, ongoing exchange of analytical findings applying the respective command within the system. and sharing of calculations. Table 8 and 9 present the assessment of the discount Upon the onset of popular information systems, rate and value respectively. income-based valuation has reached a new In the forecast period, the share value is KRW 25,840.71. development level. Financial analysts and appraisers Table 10 shows the value measurement in the post- should actively master this tool for conducting effective forecast period. value analysis and valuation.

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. 45 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

Table 1 Assessment of metrics Metric 2013 2014 2015 Increase in revenue, % – – 25.7 EBIT margin for three years, % – – 12.43 Effective income tax rate, average for three years – – 35.85 Fixed capital investment, c.u. 312.2 331.2 325.6 Depreciation charges, c.u. 175.3 190.5 205.9 Incremental fixed capital, c.u. 136.9 140.7 119.7 Increase in sales, c.u. – 445 762 Percentage of net investment in revenue increase – 31.62 15.71 Increase in working capital, c.u. – – 97.2 Percentage of increased working capital in revenue increase – – 12.76 Source: Authoring

Table 2 Assessment of cash flow in the forecast period, million USD Metric Value Sales volume 10,812.85 Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) 1,297.54 Earnings before interests and tax (EBIT) with tax adjustments (tax rate) 832.39 Incremental fixed capital –523.16 Incremental working capital –282.01 FCFF 27.21 Source: Authoring

Table 3 Assessment of cash flow in the forecast period, according to forecasts by Thompson Reuters, million USD Metric Value Sales volume 10,390.57 Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) 1,246.87 Earnings before interests and tax (EBIT) with tax adjustments (tax rate) 799.88 Incremental fixed capital –423.24 Incremental working capital –228.15 FCFF 148.49 Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business 46 Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

Table 4 Free Cash Flow to Equity from incremental fixed capital, million USD Metric Value Net Income 503.94 Incremental fixed capital –423.24 Incremental working capital –228.15 Net borrowings – increase in non-current accounts payable 252.49 FCFE 105.04 Source: Authoring

Table 5 Input data for the one-stage DCF model with a constant increment in profit Metric Value FCFE, BRL per share 11 Rate of cash flow growth, % 8 Risk-free rate, % 10.23 Equity risk premium, % 6.08 Beta coefficient of the company 2.16 Source: Authoring

Table 6 Scenario-based analysis of changed in value Metric High value Low value FCFE, BRL per share 11 11 Rate of cash flow growth, % 10 5 Risk-free rate, % 10.75 9.5 Equity-risk premium, % 6.5 5.5 Beta coefficient of the company 2.5 1.5 Discount rate, R CAPM, % 27 18 Market value of equity per share 71.18 90.59 Source: Authoring

Table 7 Input data to be uploaded into the two-stage DCF model Metric Value Current sales volume, billion KRW 16,133 Shares issued 131,270,000 Current sales volume per share, KRW 122,899.37 Increase in sales in the forecast period, % 12.82 Increase in sales in the post-forecast period, % 6.34 Net profit margin, % 5.83 Incremental fixed capital, % of an increase in revenue 25 Incremental working capital, % of an increase in revenue 17 Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. 47 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

Table 8 Assessment of the discount rate through the CAPM model, % Metric Value Risk-free rate 4.53 Market premium 8.16 Beta coefficient 1.85 R CAPM 19.63 Source: Authoring

Figure 1 Upload of the company information (screenshot)

Source: Thomson Reuters Information system

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business 48 Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

Figure 2 Dollar Tree, Inc. data in Thomson Reuters Information system (screenshot)

Source: Thomson Reuters Information system

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. 49 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

Figure 3 The sales growth forecast in Thomson Reuters Information system (screenshot)

Source: Thomson Reuters Information system

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business 50 Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

Figure 4 Sales volume for the selected period (screenshot)

Source: Thomson Reuters Information system

Figure 5 The application of the valuation option (screenshot)

Source: Thomson Reuters Information system

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. 51 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

Figure 6 The application of the valuation option to Dollar Tree, Inc. (screenshot)

Source: Thomson Reuters Information system

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business 52 Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 S.Yu. Bogatyrev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 41–54

Figure 7 Forecasts (screenshot)

Source: Thomson Reuters Information system

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I, the author of this article, bindingly and explicitly declare of the partial and total lack of actual or potential conflict of interest with any other third party whatsoever, which may arise as a result of the publication of this article. This statement relates to the study, data collection and interpretation, writing and preparation of the article, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Please cite this article as: Bogatyrev S.Yu. Analytical Capabilities of Modern Information Systems as Part of the Income-Based Business 54 Valuation Method. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 41–54. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.41 E.A. Fedorova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 55–62 pISSN 2073-8005 Finance of Organizations. eISSN 2311-9438 Analysis of Accounting Systems

Translated Article† THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN STOCKHOLDERS ON THE DIVIDEND POLICY OF RUSSIAN COMPANIES

Elena A. FEDOROVA Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected] Corresponding author

Elizaveta O. KOMAROVA Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected]

Article history: Abstract Received 12 April 2017 Importance In this article, we consider the dependence of dividend payments of Russian companies on foreign Received in revised form shareholders, and the dividend policy of Russian companies. 12 May 2017 Objectives The research determines the correlation of the presence of foreign investors among shareholders and Accepted 15 May 2017 the dividend policy in Russia. Translated 1 March 2018 Methods The correlation was studied through the logit model for binary variables and the least squares method. Available online 27 March 2018 The empirical underpinning consists of data on 122 largest Russian listed companies. Results The main hypothesis of a direct correlation of dividends and the presence of foreign stockholders has not JEL classification: D31, E25 been confirmed. The study verifies an inverse correlation of dividend payments and the presence of foreign shareholders. Conclusions and Relevance Nowadays Russia is not an attractive country for foreign investments due to Keywords: dividend, foreign, stockholder, the unstable economic situation and political relations with other countries. The findings can be useful for investment attractiveness, dividend managers of the Russian companies to study benefits of foreign shareholding, and investors who are interest in policy Russia to be an actor of the world economy.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Globalization† and business focus on transparency for However, while corporations grow and position new foreign investors has become a noticeable trend in investment opportunities, foreign investors come the contemporary market for the recent decades. across geographical issues, lingual and cultural barriers, Therefore, foreign investment thrives worldwide. thus suffering from limited access to respective information unlike local investors.

† For the source article, please refer to: Федорова Е.А., Furthermore, many emerging economies, including Комарова Е.О. Влияние иностранных акционеров на дивидендную политику российских компаний. Финансовая аналитика: проблемы Russia, generally provide little protection to minority и решения. 2017. Т. 10. № 8. С. 848–858. URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/fa.10.8.848

Please cite this article as: Fedorova E.A., Komarova E.O. The Impact of Foreign Stockholders on the Dividend Policy of Russian Companies. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 55–62. 55 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.55 E.A. Fedorova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 55–62 investors. It influences foreign investors' behavior as Foreign investors prudently control whether their rights they stand for their interests. are respected in companies. The existing situation in Russia makes top executives be more active in How much, indeed, do foreign investors influence searching for foreign investors, thus increasing dividend the dividend policy of a company? payouts. Being shattered by the national and global crisis, Russia Based on the above statements, such scholars as has been subsiding as a potential target for investors Naohiko Baba [3] from Japan (2008), S. Kim, W. Sul, for the recent years. Furthermore, the Western S.A. Kang et al. [2] (2010) and J.Q. Jeon, L. Cheolwoo, sanctions obstruct foreign investments in the Russian C.M. Moffett [4] (2011) from South Korea published companies. Few foreign residents hold shares in relevant findings of their researches. Studying the Russian companies due to political and diplomatic the literature on the subject given, we assume that tensions and distinctive development since Russia has foreign investors in the Russian companies may well been undiscovered land for the Western businessmen have a positive impact on dividend payouts. for a long time. Hypothesis 1. Foreign residents as shareholders Foreign shareholding has become a talking point in contribute to dividend payouts. different countries. The issue is of special interest for the Chinese market [1, 2]. As studies reveal, foreign In this research, we analyze preferences of the Russian investors play an increasing role in the dividend policy, top executives concerning the foreign investors' country thus strengthening the dependence on investors. of origin. Currently, there are a lot of debates about the increasing role of developing countries in the world In addition to researches into the Chinese market from economy as compared with developed ones. However, perspectives of local businesses' response to foreign some people believe that the economic classification of investors as shareholders, there are other studies countries into developed and developing ones displays proceeding from other countries [3–5]. Each of that the former is economically superior to the latter. It the above articles verifies hypothesis stating that may bias top management in analyzing would-be dividend payouts directly depend on the presence of foreign investors. It engenders the following hypothesis. foreign investors in the company. Hypothesis 2. Foreign shareholders from developed This research dwells on one of the most popular countries have a more positive impact on dividends than it doctrines of the corporate dividend policies, i.e. might be in case of shareholders from developing the agency theory. countries. M. Jensen and W.H. Meckling formulated the concept of Besides, as part of this research, we examine some an ongoing conflict between investors and managers as other hypotheses which our foreign colleagues they have different pursuits and priorities. Many studies previously suggested. highlight [6, 7, etc.] flamboyant evidence of the theory in companies from emerging economies, including Hypothesis 3. Bigger companies has a stronger tendency Russia. for dividend payouts [8].

The conflict of interests between top executives and The company size is defined as a natural logarithm of shareholders arises from free cash distribution. While total assets similarly to the research we refer to. This top executives earmark most of free cash for corporate characteristic means that the company has the ability to development and so on, shareholders prefer to use evolve and pay dividends. We also analyze a relative funds for their own benefit, i.e. making dividend payouts. indicator of cash flow, that is a percentage of cash in total assets so as to assess the company's ability to pay As mentioned above, minority shareholders do not dividends. enjoy sufficient protection of their interests in Russia since foreign investment is rather scarce there. Most Hypothesis 4. The higher profitability, the more probable foreign investors pertain to minority shareholders. dividends.

Please cite this article as: Fedorova E.A., Komarova E.O. The Impact of Foreign Stockholders on the Dividend Policy of Russian Companies. 56 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 55–62. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.55 E.A. Fedorova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 55–62

The corporate health is usually measured with Y = L(1.22X5 – 8.05X6 – 2.76X7 – 0.46X9 – profitability. If the company passes through a favorable – 0.01X10 + 4.87X15 + 17.56X16 + 12.44), phase of its life cycle, all resources are effectively used, where L is the function of the logistic distribution the company can be considered able to pay dividends to its shareholders. Having evaluated the model through the Akaike and Schwartz criteria, it may not be considered the best one Hypothesis 5. Companies with the State-owned shares since these criteria exceed 4. demonstrate a stronger tendency to dividend payouts. If we consider the F-test, it indicates a 95.33 percent- State shareholding is quite a disputable and important likelihood of the relationship between the variables. issue. F. Adjaound, W. Ben-Amar [8], M. Firth, C. Lin, 1 H. Zou [9], H. Ben-Nasr [10] and other researchers We include the most significant indicators into the table delved into this issue, thereby generating a great deal of displaying the results of the model assessment using opinions confirming both direct and inverse the least square method. The remaining indicators were relationship. dismissed.

Hypothesis 6. Operational distinctions of companies Signs of the resultant assessment are interpreted as influence dividend payouts. follows. If the ratio is positive, the variables are in direct relationship, while the negative sign mean the inverse It is generally accepted that it is difficult to determine relationship. the single theory of dividend policy making. It is mostly true because companies' operations have their own The second analyzable indicators Y2 is a dummy distinctions and preferences, which can but influence variable. It characterizes the fact of dividend payout. their dividend policy. In this research, we study whether The results of the analysis are presented in Table 2. there is any relationship between the dividend policy and type of the company's activity [11]. According to our computations, the final model is expressed as follows: This research is based on 122 observations of 300 top listed Russian companies during 2015. Data were Y = L(–7.2X4 + 3.09X9 – 0.01X10 – 3.51X14 – 26.79X16 – collected through information and analytical computer- 74.25). assisted systems and datasets, such as Ruslana-Bureau As shown in Table 3, the resultant model reflects van Dijk and Bloomberg Professional. the statistically important correlation of the variables. It The sample comprises relative ratios obtained from is proved with the LR test of 0.000012. It means that financial statements and publicly available data of there is a 99-percent likelihood of the significant Bloomberg Professional database. Afterwards we relationship between the variable. process and examine the information in terms of The model is also considered as adequate by the t-test. factors, which are mentioned in scientific literature. The coefficient of determination approximates 1 (it Refer to Table 1 for indicators we used to verify equals 0.8), thus indicating a good quality of the hypotheses using econometric models. approximation of the model's indicators we observe.

We initially analyzed the amount of dividends paid, i.e. Having assessed the logit-model by the Akaike (0.59) Y1 – dividend. Results are given in Table 2. and Schwartz criteria (0.83), we concluded that the model failed since the coefficients are low. According to estimates, the total model looks as follows: The final model also included only significant variables, i.e. those ones with the lowest likelihood test. According 1 Fedorova E.A., Fedorov F.Yu., Nikolaev A.E., Afanas'ev D.O. to the way the likelihood indicator is interpreted, we [Evaluating the efficiency of foreign direct investment: A cross sectoral comparison]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya = Financial infer that the lower the likelihood, the stronger Analytics: Science and Experience, 2016, no. 41, pp. 11–23. (In Russ.); the effect this variable has on the dependent variable Fedorova E.A., Voronkevich A.B. [The influence of external factors on the [12–15]. dividend policy of Russian companies]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2016, no. 38, pp. 27–36. (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Fedorova E.A., Komarova E.O. The Impact of Foreign Stockholders on the Dividend Policy of Russian Companies. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 55–62. 57 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.55 E.A. Fedorova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 55–62

As per assessments given in Tables 2 and 3, some of before by foreign colleagues [16–18]. Their conclusions the above hypotheses proved to be true. Please find agree with our own ones based on the assessment as the results in Table 4. part of this research.

The research makes us conclude that the situation in We also validated the hypothesis that large companies the Russian market does not support the assumption have a stronger tendency to dividend payouts. that foreign investors in a company necessarily have The reason is that the size of a company signifies a positive impact. On the contrary, it reduces or halts the possibility of paying dividends to its shareholders. dividend payments. Therefore, companies, where over Moreover, the assumption that dividend payments are 15 percent of shares are held by foreign residents, pay more typical of companies with higher profitability less dividends than the ones without foreign appears to be true only to some extent (Return on shareholders. Assets). It may be evidence of that Return on Equity It diverges with findings of researches who conducted does not reflect the company's ability to pay dividends. a similar analysis of companies in other countries [1–5]. It is worth mentioning that operational specifics turns It may conceivably stem from the fact that Russia is not out to be a significant indicator. Such dependence an attractive country for foreign investment due to its signifies that the industry of a company shall be taken economic unsustainability and political affairs with into account when the dividend policy is formed. Every other countries. company is too specific to be explained with a single As for the Russian companies' preferences concerning uniform model. foreign investors from developed or developing As noted above, State shareholding in the Russian countries, the analysis reveals that shareholders from companies does not boost dividend payouts like it developing countries have a demonstrably negative happened in many other countries. This is due to impact on the amount of dividend payments. special conditions for State-owned companies This conclusions debunks the first and second operating in Russia. The theory of agency does not hypotheses underlining the inverse dependence of apply completely to them since priorities of top dividend payouts on foreign shareholders. executives and shareholders are often hard to distinguish. Considering other factors influencing the dividend policy, we should note that almost all the analyzable The findings may be of use for the Russian managers to indicators (size of the company, profitability, study advantages of foreign shareholders, and for those operational specifics) proved to be significant for who promotes Russia as an actor of the world economy dividend policy making. The factors were analyzed and investee.

Please cite this article as: Fedorova E.A., Komarova E.O. The Impact of Foreign Stockholders on the Dividend Policy of Russian Companies. 58 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 55–62. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.55 E.A. Fedorova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 55–62

Table 1 Indicators used to verify the hypotheses Indicator Denotation Calculation formula

Dividend Y1 Dividends paid / Total assets

Payer of dividends Y2 Takes on a value of 1, if payments have been made in the current period, and it is 0, if they are not

Foreign shareholder X3 Takes on a value of 1, if a foreigner is present among shareholders, and it is 0, if there are no foreigners

Interest of the key foreign X4 Interest of the key foreign shareholder shareholders

Key foreign shareholder X5 Takes on a value of 1, if the key foreign shareholder has more than a 15-percent interest, and it is 0, if his/her share is less than 15 percent

Interest of the foreign X6 If the key foreign shareholder proceeds from a developing country, his/her interest in the company shall shareholder from a be specified, but if he/she is not, then 0 is indicated developing country

Interest of the foreign X7 If the key foreign shareholder proceeds from a developed country, his/her interest in the company shall shareholder from a be specified, but if he/she is not, then 0 is indicated developed country

The ratio of the market X8 Market value of shares/ Par value of shares value of shares to par value

Size of the company X9 Natural logarithm of total assets

Cash flow X10 Cash and cash equivalents / Total assets

Return on Equity X11 Characteristic of the efficiency of the equity use

Leverage X12 Characteristic of the capital structure indicating the ratio of debt to equity

Percentage of intangible X13 Intangible assets / Total assets assets

State shareholding X14 Share held by the State

Return on Assets X15 The efficiency of assets used

Sectoral specifics X16 Company's performance viewing it as a part of a specific industry. It takes on a value of 0.01…0.16 depending on the factor Source: The Bank of Russia data

Table 2 The results of the model evaluation using the least squares method* Variable Coefficient Standard error T-test Likelihood

X10 –0.009845 0.006112 –1.61088 0.1157

X15 4.868358 1.997354 2.437404 0.0197

X16 17.56364 8.088184 2.171518 0.0364

X5 1.221548 0.886434 1.378047 0.1765

X7 –2.76055 1.725963 –1.599425 0.1182

X6 –8.046348 7.293296 –1.103253 0.277

X9 –0.459267 0.24042 –1.910272 0.0639 C 12.43629 6.493609 1.915158 0.0632 R-squared 0.306024 Mean of dependent variable 1.362575 Adjusted R-squared 0.174731 Standard deviation of dependent variable 1.994378 Standards error of regression 1.81178 Akaike information criterion 4.186307 Residual sum of squares 121.4542 Schwartz criterion 4.507492 Logarithm of the likelihood function –86.19191 F-test 2.330847 Durbin–Watson statistics 2.333574 Likelihood (F-test) 0.044744 * Dependent variable: Y 1, linear regression. Source : Authoring

Please cite this article as: Fedorova E.A., Komarova E.O. The Impact of Foreign Stockholders on the Dividend Policy of Russian Companies. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 55–62. 59 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.55 E.A. Fedorova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 55–62

Table 3 The results of logit model evaluation* Variable Coefficient Standard error z-test Likelihood

X10 –0.014505 0.012166 –1.192256 0.2332

X16 –26.78873 21.73463 –1.232536 0.2177

X14 –3.506207 3.926253 –0.893016 0.3718

X4 –7.202182 3.934129 –1.830693 0.0671

X9 3.090394 1.296156 2.384276 0.0171 C –74.25071 32.57643 –2.279277 0.0227 The mean of dependent variable 0.8 Standard deviation of dependent variable 0.40452 Standard error of regression 0.226171 Akaike information criterion 0.590709 Residual sum of squares 1.994974 Schwartz criterion 0.831597 Logarithm of the likelihood function –7.290956 Hannan-Quinn information criterion 0.68051 Logarithm of the likelihood function with –22.51811 Logarithmic mean of the likelihood function –0.162021 restrictions LR-test 30.45431 McFadden R2 0.676218 Likelihood (LR-test) 1.2E-05 * Dependent variable: Y 2. Evaluation method: Logit-model for binary variable. Total observations: 145. Source: Authoring

Table 4 The test results of the hypotheses made in the work Hypothesis Analyzable indicators Hypothesis verification result Hypothesis 1. Foreign residents as shareholders contribute Interest of the key foreign Not verified. Inverse dependence

to dividend payouts shareholder Х4 Hypothesis 2. Foreign shareholders from developed Interest of the foreign shareholder Not verified. There is an inverse correlation of

countries have a more positive impact on dividends than it from a developing country X6 interests held by foreign shareholders from the might be in case of shareholders from developing two types of countries and the amount of countries dividends paid Hypothesis 2. Foreign shareholders from developed Interest of the foreign shareholder

countries have a more positive impact on dividends than it from a developed country X7 might be in case of shareholders from developing countries

Hypothesis 3. Bigger companies has a stronger tendency Size of the company X9 Verified for dividend payouts

Hypothesis 4. The higher profitability, the more probable Return on Assets Х15. The hypothesis proved to be true in case of

dividends Return on Equity Х11 the ROA, with the ROE being insignificant

Hypothesis 5. Companies with the State-owned shares Share of the State Х14 Not verified. Inverse correlation demonstrate a stronger tendency to dividend payouts

Hypothesis 6. Operational distinctions of companies Sectoral specifics Х16 Verified. The correlation is in place influence dividend payouts Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Fedorova E.A., Komarova E.O. The Impact of Foreign Stockholders on the Dividend Policy of Russian Companies. 60 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 55–62. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.55 E.A. Fedorova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 55–62

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We, the authors of this article, bindingly and explicitly declare of the partial and total lack of actual or potential conflict of interest with any other third party whatsoever, which may arise as a result of the publication of this article. This statement relates to the study, data collection and interpretation, writing and preparation of the article, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Please cite this article as: Fedorova E.A., Komarova E.O. The Impact of Foreign Stockholders on the Dividend Policy of Russian Companies. 62 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 55–62. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.55 A.S. Butuzova / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 63–67 pISSN 2073-8005 Finance of Organizations. eISSN 2311-9438 Analysis of Accounting Systems

Translated Article† CAPITALIZATION OF INTERNATIONAL UNICORN COMPANIES: TO WHAT EXTENT IS IT REASONABLE?

Anastasiya S. BUTUZOVA Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected] orcid.org/0000-0003-0759-5660

Article history: Abstract Received 11 December 2017 Importance The article addresses unicorn companies as the most successful and fastest-growing start-ups. It Received in revised form analyzes to what extent their capitalization is justified, what prospects for growth they have after IPO, and how 25 December 2017 they meet investors' expectations. Accepted 16 January 2018 Objectives The objectives of the study include a comprehensive review of creation and development of unicorn Translated 7 March 2018 companies, identifying the sources of their growth and credibility of their open market valuation. Available online 27 March 2018 Methods The study employs methods of analysis, synthesis, retrospective analysis, comparison, and compilation. Results The paper shows why unicorns are overvalued in the market. It emphasizes that the possibility and JEL classification: F21, F36, F41, F63 expediency of unicorn capitalization depends on the interests pursued by market actors. The practicability of IPO and its implications also vary from company to company. Conclusions and Relevance High capitalization of unicorn companies is not reasonably feasible in every instance: Keywords: unicorn company, investors are often riding on the wave of a boom, after which the value of business falls to zero. However, capitalization, IPO, securities market, high-tech and innovative unicorns, on the contrary, are drivers of development and their high capitalization is venture capital indeed justified.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Exploring† the origin of the term unicorn shall precede larger companies absorb them (in most cases, unicorns any studies into the capitalization of companies. In benefit more from absorption because larger the Middle Ages, a unicorn was believed to be a sign of corporations infuse their resources to further develop good luck. Encountering a unicorn, to say nothing about the unicorn startup) [1–5]. Here a question arises. Is taming it, is also great luck for today's venture the capitalization of international unicorns reasonable? investors. The unicorn in their way promises incredible What opportunities for growth do companies get after wealth to the lucky one. Unicorns are private startups, an IPO? Does it meet investors' expectations? which are appraised to be worth more than USD 1 The phenomenon of unicorns originated not so long billion and initially financed with venture capital. Such ago. Three triggers may cause such startups to appear: startups undergo one and the same challenge. Their stability and viability are tested when they go public or 1) globalization. The world creates more and more inner ties. Startups with the proven business model scale † For the source article, please refer to: Бутузова А.С. their business globally using venture capital. For Капитализация международных компаний «единорогов»: насколько она оправданна? Финансы и кредит. 2018. Т. 24. № 2. example, Google, Facebook, Whatsapp, Instagram, С. 430–438. Uber, AirBnB, etc.; URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.24.2.430

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2) digital economy. Information products (goods and As reported by The Wall Street Journal, as of October services) differ from conventional tangibles. If 2017, there were 168 unicorn companies. It takes information is transferred, it is still available for a relevant startup six years on average to become the seller, being replicated many times. Information a unicorn. Most unicorns were born in the North products are sold with almost zero costs. America (61.4%) and Asia, primarily in China (26%). Considerable expenses for development are Growth in the number of unicorns reached its peak in earmarked for each copy sold. Therefore, the more 2014–2015. In 2015, the investment environment was large scale the project is, the cheaper the product favorable for investors, offering low interest rates. may be. Hence producers are not constrained, Alibaba, China's e-commerce company, became tending to dominate the market (if LinkedIn is a pioneering unicorn in 2005. From perspectives of present in the market, other social network for the world economy, it is no surprise it was China where professional will not exist); such a company originated since the Chinese market grows, being closed and driven by high-profile 3) avoidance of intermediaries. Many unicorns are so companies, though the capital market is insufficiently successful because they eliminated intermediaries developed. Most unicorns are concentrated in and created the c2c market model (customer to e-commerce and software development (Table 1). customer). Any emerging competition makes prices fall dramatically. The flip side of the situation is that it What distinguishes unicorns from other companies is brings requirements of the State and public to such the time it takes them to reach the value of products down (for example, safety and occupational USD 1 billion. Jet.com, U.S. trade company, is standards in Uber). Public companies are bound to a prominent example as its value reached comply with such requirements since they are the respective amount in a four months' time after its constantly monitored by supervisory and regulatory incorporation. The company operates in e-commerce bodies, which may easily signal any breaches in legal and focuses on more thrifty buyers, who seek lower compliance1. prices more than fast delivery. The reason why Jet.com skyrocketed so quickly was that venture investors got Having settled the origin of the term unicorn, I proceed interested in the founder's experience. Before Jet.com, to statistical data. How many unicorns are there? What Marc Lore developed and sold Diapers.com to Walmart. industries do they inhabit? How much time does it take Having got a grip of the process, he raised USD 820 a startup to morph into a unicorn? What countries have million from venture investors to sell Jet.com to the most favorable conditions for a unicorn boom? Walmart, estimating it to be worth USD 3.3 billion. Until According to Crunchbase, there are 267 unicorns with the moment only seven companies managed to turn their total market value amounting to USD 920.8 billion. into unicorns for one year, and other 13 ones pursued

1 We may refer to the flamboyant story of Theranos, biotech so for two years after their incorporation (Table 2). company, which was appraised as much as USD 9 billion at its prime, but remeasured down to zero. The company was based in the As for Russia, the small national market (approximately technology for conducting several dozens of analysis using just a drop 2 percent of the global IT market in comparison with 40 of the patient’s blood. The company grew steadily, received return on percent in the USA), long distance from principal global investments and managed to raise even more funds after going public. The value of the company was measured with billion scales, though all business centers and impossibility to integrate into the information on its operations were kept strictly confidential. The global technological chains restrict the potential of secret attracted new clients and investors within several years. the Russian technological companies. Escalating However, journalists of the Wall Street Journal conducted an investigation revealing that the company made its tests using ordinary tensions in foreign policy affairs affect companies, medical equipment, which was far from being very precise given such which seem to have already deserved the global tiny amount of blood is taken. Later on, supervisory authorities reputation and recognition. For example, Kaspersky detected breaches posing patients’ life and health at stake. This fact was the basis to recall blood test results made for several years and send Antivirus has been accused of the National Security new details. Furthermore, the company was found to have taken more Agency data leakage, thereby actually losing its share in than a drop of fingertip blood as it declared. The revaluation brought the U.S. market. After the 2012–2013 peak, startups the company’s value to zero. Therefore, the underlying secret was revealed, thereby depriving the company of its target clientele, became less active as the Russian venture capital subsequently ruining the business idea and undermining the initial market went down in 2015 due to the outflow of value the company was allegedly worth.

Please cite this article as: Butuzova A.S. Capitalization of International Uniсorn Companies: To What Extent Is It Reasonable? 64 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 63–67. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.63 A.S. Butuzova / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 63–67 venture capital funds from Russia [6–10]. Belorus sees the company's quotation in the stock market. High a similar situation. quotations stem from excess capital in the market. When investors hardly have any expectations, stocks Dealing with the capitalization of unicorns, first of all, it will be difficult to sell at a high price. Companies should is necessary to make it clear that the value of such wait for the IPO window to break open meaning that companies is almost always overestimated. So, unicorns they may benefit from more favorable macroeconomic undertake funding rounds, which boost their capital. conditions. So, if investors have changed their Investors participate in such funding rounds. Investors sentiment (worse expectations), an IPO is not consider an IPO as an opportunity to break free from reasonable for unicorns. investment and sell their stake. However, it is noteworthy that unicorns shall use as much investment Third, investment in startups becomes more common as they really need for their development but not more. nowadays. The modern market inhabited by unicorns When the team spends the raised funds inefficiently, it has neither securities, nor liquidity. Stocks usually cost signals the lowest likelihood of its business success. as much as buyers are willing to pay for them, while The hungrier and more able to save money the startup, unicorns' stocks are so unusual that it is even hard to the higher its competitiveness. However, everything imagine where to sell them. That is why the bubble is should be in balance in this case since the startup seen in private investment – in the market, where there competes with 10 identical rivals. If the startup is are no quotations and liquidity is worse than it was in hungry, it may lose the race. the stock market of 2000. Why do investors put up their money for unicorns then? The potential and growth The market basically displays no response when there opportunities of such companies are the main drivers appears a unicorn. If the company is public, its of their overestimated values. Investors are gazing at quotations will be higher because it has a good startups, which have not been incorporated yet but still information trail, being more transparent for investors. have a big potential for growth. The quotation will be formed by the market, thus being more unbiased. On the contrary, unicorns are not Fourth, overestimated quotations of unicorns may bound to disclose their performance results unless they plummet. Even if the quotations are far from being are regulated by financial markets. Large stock exchanges truth, the drop will not entail considerable require listed companies to present audited financial consequences. Founders and shareholders will not get statement for at least three years. This is one of the reasons what they intend to, but it will not be a surprise since why unicorns abstain from going public and IPO. the high rate of return always implies high risks. We shall note that investors can afford it during the period Second, in certain cases unicorns are reluctant to have of low interest rates. Investment funds will also suffer an IPO since it is a protracted process generating no losses. However, they allocate some part of their assets benefits for them. The period from the first funding for alternative investment (venture capital), thereby round up to the potential entry may take, on average, protecting themselves from tremendous losses. They about 6–8 years, and 9–10 years until an IPO. Besides, will see only their yields drop. As for private investors, IPO is rather long, and respective bankers' services are they generally put up their money for such companies rather expensive. As circulated in the investment indirectly through mutual investment funds, thus environment, it is economically unreasonable to go alleviating consequences of the bubble burst. public with quotations lower than USD 100 million. On Therefore, the economy will not be seriously affected. the one hand, companies undertake an IPO for their However, considering the dot.com crisis (the bubble in liquidity. If the company's shares are deemed valuable the U.S. market in 2000), I shall admit its strong effect in the capital market, there will be demand for them. leading to the transformation of the venture capital On the other hand, unprofitable startups (those ones segment. generating income, without deriving profit) face a drop in the quotations of their stocks when they enter As a conclusion, I would like to note that every unicorn the open market. It happens because investors now entrepreneur pursues his/her own interests, which have another sentiment about the companies' future determine whether it is possible or reasonable to profit. Furthermore, projected income is higher than capitalize a unicorn startup. It is not always reasonable

Please cite this article as: Butuzova A.S. Capitalization of International Uniсorn Companies: To What Extent Is It Reasonable? Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 63–67. 65 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.63 A.S. Butuzova / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 63–67 to capitalize unicorn startups. The venture capital startup had grown up and become a strong competitor. segment sets up its rules, which will be mastered only The probability is low but the successful result may by the strongest contenders. Large venture capital offset investment many times. There is a probability, funds search for the potential hype, which would be albeit very little, that the company will go public understandable for everyone and can change the world, successfully. However, such cases do exists. In fact, i.e. change the way people do things. Financial investors need to get on the right side of the founder injections and lobbying warm up the topic, luring new and persuade him/her to perform as much effectively investors. The capitalization reaches the billion level. as possible so that the product in question be placed in The startup starts generating earnings. At this point, the market. The founder therefore tries to retain the unicorn startup had better be sold to a larger the majority share and hold levers of the project so as company, which would be affected more if the unicorn not to be expelled out of his/her own business.

Table 1 Top 10 unicorn companies as of 2017 Company Country Activity Time before reaching the value of USD 1 billion Uber USA Transportation 4 years 6 months ANT Financial China Financial services — Didi Chuxing China Internet technology for end users — Xiaomi China Hardware 1 year 9 months Airbnb USA Internet technology for end users 3 years Space-X USA Defense and aerospace industry 10 years Palantir Technologies USA Software 8 years Toutiao China Internet technology for end users — WeWork USA Real estate 1 year 6 months Lufax China Financial services 3 years 4 months Source: Authoring, based on TechCrunch website data. URL: https://techcrunch.com/

Table 2 The fastest-growing unicorn companies Company Country Incorporation year Activity Year of the Unicorn Time before reaching status the value of USD 1 billion Jet.com USA July 2015 E-commerce November2015 4 months APUS Group China June 2014 Software January 2015 7 months Rong360 China March 2015 Financial services October 2015 7 months BeiBei China April 2014 E-commerce January 2015 10 months Illumio USA June 2013 Software April 2014 1 year Iwjw China June 2014 Real estate June 2015 1 year Lashou.com China March 2010 E-commerce March 2011 1 year 58 Daojia China September 2014 Internet technology for end October 2015 1 year 1 month users Lamabang China December 2013 Internet technology for end March 2015 1 year 3 months users Uptake USA June 2014 Analytics October 2015 1 year 4 months WePiao China June 2014 E-commerce November 2015 1 year 5 months WeWork USA August 2012 Real estate February 2014 1 year 6 months Xiaomi China April 2010 Hardware December 2011 1 year 9 months Oscar Health USA July 2013 Health care April 2015 1 year 10 months Insurance CO

Please cite this article as: Butuzova A.S. Capitalization of International Uniсorn Companies: To What Extent Is It Reasonable? 66 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 63–67. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.63 A.S. Butuzova / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 63–67

Carbon3D USA June 2013 Manufacturing August 2015 2 years Dada China June 2014 Internet technology for end January 2016 2 years users Fab USA June 2011 E-commerce August 2013 2 years Square USA June 2009 E-commerce January 2011 2 years ZhongAn China June 2013 Financial services June 2015 2 years zulily USA June 2010 E-commerce November 2012 2 years Source: Authoring, based on Fleximize website data. URL: https://fleximize.com/

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I, the author of this article, bindingly and explicitly declare of the partial and total lack of actual or potential conflict of interest with any other third party whatsoever, which may arise as a result of the publication of this article. This statement relates to the study, data collection and interpretation, writing and preparation of the article, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Please cite this article as: Butuzova A.S. Capitalization of International Uniсorn Companies: To What Extent Is It Reasonable? Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 63–67. 67 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.63 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80 pISSN 2073-8005 Securities and Financial Markets eISSN 2311-9438

Translated Article† FORECASTING THE SITUATION IN THE FINANCIAL MARKET AND EVALUATING ITS IMPACT ON THE INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT

Ruslan Kh. IL'YASOV Chechen State University, Grozny, Chechen Republic, Russian Federation [email protected] Corresponding author

Diana A. KURAZOVA Chechen State University, Grozny, Chechen Republic, Russian Federation [email protected]

Article history: Abstract Received 29 August 2017 Importance The research focuses on mathematical methods for forecasting the financial market trends in its Received in revised form impact on the industry development. Viewing the future economic development through the lens of the financial 2 October 2017 sector trends, many researchers proved the relationship between the financial market situation and the industrial Accepted 23 October 2017 sector. Translated 26 January 2018 Objectives In theory and practice, the research substantiates the significance of the financial market, its impact of Available online 27 March 2018 the real economy, considering the existing lack of finance and investment resources. Applying mathematical tools for analyzing the market and its future trends, we determine how it will rise and fall in industrial sectors of JEL classification: G12, G32 the national economy. The forecast allows to adjust an economic policy and alleviate possible crunches. Methods Based on methods of regression-and-correlation, statistical, horizontal and vertical analysis of data, we examine rates of growth in key industrial indices at the Moscow Stock Exchange and predict their future behavior. Results As part of this research, we devised forecasting tools for examining the financial market and key mechanisms for raising investment resources from the financial sector. Conclusions and Relevance The research is of scientific value since it explores internal mechanisms for raising Keywords: financial market, industry, investment, which result from a mathematical framework for market forecasting. The resultant forecasting tools financial market indicators, market are recommendable to use to get a deeper understanding of the financial market trends and key mechanisms for conditions attracting investment resources from the financial sector.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Operations in the securities market† are indispensable the future [1]. Various methods and models are used to of forecasting. Securities market actors can gain yields forecast future fluctuations of market prices. In this only if their foresee how the market behaves in research, we focus on forecasting of key industrial indicators since they strongly influence growth rates of †For the source article, please refer to: Ильясов Р.Х., Куразова Д.А. Прогнозирование конъюнктуры финансового рынка и оценка его industries and national GDP [2, 3]. Incidentally, влияния на развитие промышленности. Финансы и кредит. 2017. the financial market trends depends on the amount of Т. 23. № 43. С. 2575–2591. URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.23.43.2575

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact 68 on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80 investment resources in the country1. We review trends well-known statistical models [5]. Before going on to in investments of economic agents and principal make our own forecast, we review what sectoral indices of the Moscow Exchange (MICEX)2 macroeconomic situation the Bank of Russia predicts (Table 1). from 2016 to 2018 in its annual report, Key Areas of the Uniform Monetary Policy for 2016, 2017 and 2018. According to Table 1, absolute values of total investment in fixed capital rose. Furthermore, financial investment Outlining its macroeconomic scenarios of the national of corporations increased too, with the exception of economic development, the Bank of Russia assumes the year 2011 when financial investment dropped. that foreign economic conditions will change and The manner of industrial indices' movements show that the economic policy of the State will be influential. increased investment, in fact, had a positive effect in The key interest rate is the principal tool the Bank of the oil and gas sector (MICEX O&G has been growing Russia uses to regulate the domestic financial market. throughout the entire period), chemistry and chemical The key interest rate has been demonstrating products (except for 2013, MICEX CHM grows). a downward trend for the recent years (down to 11 The consumer sector and trade are stagnating (MICEX percent). This favorably boosts investment in CGS shows an insignificant growth, but it fell in 2011 the economy. However, the key interest rate remains and 2014). Metals, mining and machine building quite high as compared with other countries (Fig. 1). develop sluggishly (MICEX M&M, MICEX MNF have been As seen in Fig. 1, Russia has one of the highest key growing for three years and falling within the same time interest rates among other BRICS countries, except for down to previous levels). Power engineering faces Brazil. The high interest rate obstructs the inflow of the toughest situation (In 2015 MICEX PWR was five investment in fixed assets and dynamic development of times lower than in 2009) [4]. various manufacturing sectors [6]. Having analyzed the way investment in the Russian From perspectives of the Bank of Russia, the current economy changes and the securities market behaves situation in the financial market is complicated and with respect to certain sectors, we confirm an unstable hard to predict. However, the future economic policy is inflow of investment. Such important sectors as difficult to plan without as much reasonable and sound machine building, mining, metal working and power forecast of global markets as possible. The oil price is engineering have no investment at all. Having evaluated the principal external factor that strongly affects growth rates of certain sectors statistically and analyzed the certainty of forecasts [7]. Assuming high volatility the foreign trade structure, we found out that many and uncertainty of the factor, the Bank of Russia sectors demonstrate negative trends in growth rates anticipates the national economy to follow three and export of goods to the global markets. Energy scenarios below: resources account for the highest export share, while import is represented with machines and equipment, 1) baseline scenario implies that the average annual food. Thus, despite the existing and effective import level of the oil price remain about USD 50 a barrel substitution programs, the Russian economy still throughout a three year period; depends on foreign products. 2) optimistic scenario foresees a gradual growth in In this article, we try forecasting flows of the Russian the average annual level of the Urals oil price up to securities pertaining to industrial enterprises and use USD 70–80 a barrel in 2018;

1 3) risky scenario envisages that the average annual level Obukhova S.V., Fedotova G.V., Obukhova S.V., Fedotova G.V. [Investment attractiveness of the regions in the Southern Federal of the oil price perseveres with USD 40 a barrel within District]. Instituty i mekhanizmy innovatsionnogo razvitiya: mirovoi opyt i 2016–2018. rossiiskaya praktika: materialy 3i nauchnoi konferentsii [Proc. 3rd Sci. Conf. Institutions and Mechanisms for Innovative Development: Global The geopolitical situation, armed conflicts in various Expertise and Russian Practices]. Kursk, SWSU Publ., 2013, pp. 220–222. countries and Russia's attitude to them are other 2 Sectoral indices constitute price indices of the most marketable factors that influence global economy, along with the oil stocks of the Russian issuers as weighted in line with the market capitalization. For more detail please refer to the Moscow Exchange. price [8]. URL: http://www.moex.com/ru/index/MICEXO%26G (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. 69 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80

The EU and U.S. economic sanctions seriously affect until 2018. More long-term forecasts are not reasonable the development of the Russian financial market and from reliability perspectives due to the complicated economy. As the Bank of Russia predicts, those factors geopolitical situation, surge in energy prices in global will persevere until 2018. Financial sanctions will also markets. For purposes of forecast and respective prevent the Russian banks from entering the global models, we choose six sectoral indicators, such as market of interbank lending by setting up higher MICEX O&G, MICEX CGS, MICEX CHM, MICEX M&M, interest rates for the Russian borrowers. Russia sees MICEX MNF, MICEX PWR and their values for the recent the advent of expensive money. This will not have eight years [11]. a positive effect on monetization. For forecasting purposes, we make up a table The 2016–2018 budgetary policy of the Russian combining factual and estimated data. To assess Government is one of the internal influential factors. the trendline equation coefficients (the pattern that Adhering to the moderately conservative budgetary mathematically and graphically describes an increase or policy, curbing a growth in natural monopolies' tariffs, decrease in trends), we use built-in functions of adjusting wages and retirement benefits, it will be the EXCEL Analysis Toolpak. In this case, we build possible to set off a slump in the foreign currency a trend line, with the timing factor being an influence portion of budgetary revenue. Such actions will calm indicator and the index value being variable [12–14]. down inflationary expectations of the public, thus Please find below the trendline equation: naturally reducing the key interest rate of the Bank of

Russia. If the key interest rate is more convergent with Y (t)=a0+a1⋅t +ε, the refinance rate, it will increase the percentage of repaid loans [9]. where a0 is the zero coefficient of regression with the time factor of 0; Hence, key forecast parameters of the Bank of Russia looks quite modest for a mid run, but demonstrate a1 is the coefficient reflecting to what extent the time a positive trend (Table 2). factor influences the dependent one;

The Bank of Russia releases quite restrained forecasts ε is a random components, standard error of on oil prices since baseline scenarios imply USD 50 the model; a barrel as the oil price benchmark. This is the bottom Y denotes real and factual values; threshold, which enables the Russian economy to go on without a dramatic drop. Growth is projected through t is an influence factor, time. such criteria as GDP, money supply, loans, consumer The securities market trends can be forecast by setting demand [10]. a forecast model, i.e. make trendline equation on The macroeconomic situation is complicated and hard the basis of series trends [15]. to predict in line with the regulator's data. It is hard to According to estimates in Table 2, the forecast trend foresee the securities market behavior3. However, we drifts upward, meaning that the market of oil and gas try to forecast the development of industry-specific enterprises' securities will be growing, thus instigating segments of the Russian securities market for a mid run an increase in the sector. Likewise, forecast models of 3 Obukhov S.V., Fedotova G.V. [Efficiency of conventional portfolio the following five sectoral indices are constructed strategies in the current conditions of the Russian market]. Politika (Table 3–5). sovremennykh sotsial’no-ekonomicheskikh system: materialy I vserossiiskoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Proc. Sci. Conf. Policy of As per the forecast in Table 5, the consumer sector Contemporary Socio-Economic Systems]. Volgograd, Institute of Management Publ., 2015, pp. 172–175; Fedotova G.V., Tychina A.V. index trendline is moving upward, thus signifying [Evaluating the situation in the global market of resources]. Aktual’nye a growth in the consumer demand and trade turnover problemy razvitiya khozyaistvuyushchikh sub’’ektov, territorii I sistem rates. regional’nogo I munitsipal’nogo upravleniya. Vypusk 2: materialy XI mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Proc. 11th Int. Sci. Securities market index in chemical and petrochemical Conf. Current issues of Development of Economic Entities, Territories and Systems of Regional and Municipal Administration. Issue 2]. Kursk, production demonstrates an upward trend. It explains SWSU Publ., 2016, pp. 173–176.

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact 70 on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80 why export of respective products gets more intense the derivatives market (billion RUB), trading volume in (Table 6). the foreign exchange market (billion RUB), interest rate set by the Central Bank of Russia (%), USD exchange High volatility of quotes is typical of the securities rate (RUB), Brent oil price (USD), GDP (billion RUB), market in metallurgy and mining. They spike and slump. MICEX index. IPI is to be inferred. However, predictable upward movements in the market contributes to its qualitative growth. Nevertheless, Please refer to Table 1 for inputs of the artificial the model reliability of 0.047 is insufficient for us to intelligence system. They are presented as they draw upon it (Table 7). develop, proceeding from the Deductor platform.

The index of the machine building industry is rather It seems reasonable to form the neural model as chaotic and difficult to predict. High volatility and drastic a perceptron with a single hidden layer. The neural drop in quotes for machine building enterprises' network is trained with the backward propagation of securities signify stagnation processes and a decline in errors (Table 10). The sigmoid function is used to the industry. This market has a neutral forecast, without activate the neuron (Fig. 2). rise and fall being anticipated. The forecast model is As researches show, estimated IPI insignificantly very unreliable, i.e. 0.0001. So, the market is almost deviates from its factual values. It is visualized in Fig. 3. unpredictable (Table 8). The error contribution does not exceed 5 percent in The securities market of energy companies continues each range of values (Fig. 4). declining almost all the time. This trend is expected to persevere within the coming two years. Thus, Drawing upon the what-if analysis embedded in production in the sector will not increase or decrease the neural network, we can forecast IPI for the following considerably. However, the low reliability of the model period. Other things being equal while inputs change, raises our doubts about its respective forecasts we can estimate IPI. Let us try out the following values (Table 9). in the model: trading volume in the stock market – RUB 311,180 billion, trading volume in the derivatives Following the analysis, we formed forecast models market – RUB 115,271 billion, trading volume in the reflecting the development of the Russian market of foreign exchange market – RUB 329,954 billion, interest industrial issuers' securities. rate of the Central Bank of Russia – 9%, USD exchange rate – RUB 57.46, Brent oil price – USD 58.09, MICEX Y=1 386,72+411,292⋅t ; index – 2,084.77, GDP – RUB 61,097.5. Then IPI is Y=2 142,551786+592,9457143⋅t ; forecast to be 103.8675, assuming that the factual IPI Y=1 302,788571+1 331,730595⋅t ; was 101.3 in 2016 (Fig. 5). Y=1 302,788571+1 331,730595⋅t ; Hence we can conclude that: Y=3 056,918929+118,1260714⋅t ; Y=1 662,139286+3,478214286⋅t ; • first, the use of artificial intelligence systems are of {Y=2 540,608929+185,1639286⋅t . significance nowadays; • second, we verify the hypothesis stating that the IPI Currently, it is incidentally important to forecast can be forecast through the nonlinear mathematical the Industrial Production Index (IPI). In practice, the real model, that is a perceptron based on artificial economy and IPP in particular are influenced by intelligence, with the error not exceeding five percent; security market developments. • third, according to the neural network-based forecast, We hypothesize that IPI can be predicted through IPI accounts for 103.8675, that is higher than the nonlinear mathematical model, i.e. perceptron the factual one (2016: 101.3). IPI is expected to grow based on artificial intelligence. The forecast error will by 2.56 percentage points. not exceed five percent indeed. We use inputs below to form the artificial intelligence system: trading volume in It is noteworthy that an analysis of quotes for the stock market (billion RUB), trading volume in the Russian issuers’ securities enables us to get

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. 71 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80 a comprehensive understanding of the current trends prices for stocks and bonds. Amendments to in an industry. Stock exchange quotations of securities the domestic financial policy, measures of the Central and resultant stock exchange indices respond Bank of Russia, investing activities, etc. absorb sensitively to macroeconomic developments and the securities market, which generates its own product, factors, thus having an immediate effect on trends in i.e. stock exchange quotations for securities [11, 16].

Table 1 Changes in the volume and nature of investment and sector indices in 2009–2016 Period Investment, billion RUB MICEX O&G, ↑↓ MICEX CGS, ↑↓ Fixed capital ↑↓ Financial ↑↓ RUB RUB investment 12.2009 7,976,012.8 – 22,745 – 2,535.43 – 3,308.91 – 12.2010 9,152,096 ↑ 41,274.8 ↑ 2,981.75 ↑ 6,127.99 ↑ 12.2011 11,035,652 ↑ 66,634 ↓ 2,983.37 ↑ 3,907.8 ↓ 12.2012 12,586090.4 ↑ 67,724.8 ↑ 3,306.49 ↑ 4,973.47 ↑ 12.2013 13,450,238.2 ↑ 72,888.5 ↑ 3,491.14 ↑ 6,245.95 ↑ 12.2014 13,902,645.3 ↑ 78,604.4 ↑ 3,540.17 ↑ 5,460.63 ↓ 12.2015 14,555,902 ↑ 127,113.6 ↑ 4,608.88 ↑ 6,804.08 ↑ 12.2016 14,988,907 ↑ 131,113.6 ↑ 5,690.32 ↑ 6,781.37 ↓ Continued Period MICEX CHM, RUB ↑↓ MICEX M&M, RUB ↑↓ MICEX MNF, ↑↓ MICEX PWR, ↑↓ RUB RUB 12.2009 4,362.91 – 3,610.78 – 1,656.6 – 2,384.25 ↑ 12.2010 6,275.62 ↑ 5,887.72 ↑ 2,881.64 ↑ 3,435.32 ↓ 12.2011 6,936.21 ↑ 3,082.65 ↓ 1,715.16 ↓ 2,053.02 ↓ 12.2012 7,839.34 ↑ 2,908.55 ↓ 2,004.21 ↑ 1,707.42 ↓ 12.2013 6,468.1 ↓ 2,264.99 ↓ 1,930.58 ↓ 1,032.39 ↓ 12.2014 7,745.69 ↑ 3,457.62 ↑ 1,027.55 ↓ 797.54 ↓ 12.2015 13,629.7 ↑ 3,783.72 ↑ 1,464.66 ↑ 944.51 ↑ 12.2016 14,423.8 ↑ 5,536.89 ↑ 1,648.94 ↑ 1,984.16 ↑ Source: Authoring, based on the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia official website data. URL: http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/enterprise/investment/nonfinancial/; The official site of the Moscow stock exchange. URL: http://moex.com/en/index/MICEXPWR/technical/

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact 72 on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80

Table 2 Forecast of the main economic indicators of development as estimated by the Central Bank of Russia in 2014–2018 Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (factual) (estimate) Base Optimal Base Optimal Base Optimal Urals oil price, USD/barrel 98 52 50 60 50 70 50 75 GDP, increment, percentage 0.6 –(3.9–4.4) –(0.5–0.1) 0–0.5 0–0.1 1–2 2–3 2.5–3.5 points Inflation, percent 11.4 12–13 5.5–6.5 5.5–6.5 4 4 4 4 Money supply, increment, 2.2 5–8 4–7 8–10 8–11 13–16 13–16 13–16 percentage points Loans, increment, percentage 25.9 4–7 4–7 7–9 8–11 13–16 13–16 13–16 points Consumer demand, 0.9 –(6.1–6.9) –(1–1.4) 0–0.3 –(0.7–0.3) 0.8–1.5 1.5–2.5 2–3 increment, percentage points Net export, increment, 29.8 74.5–76.5 8.5–10.5 1.5–3.5 8.5–10.5 –(1.5–3.5) –(5–7) –(14.5–16.5) percentage points Source: Authoring, based on The Main Directions of the Uniform Monetary Policy in 2016 and the 2017–2018 period. Central Bank of Russia

Table 3 Factual data for compiling a forecast model for developing the securities market of industrial enterprises in Russia in 2009–2016 Date MICEX O&G MICEX CGS MICEX CHM MICEX M&M MICEX MNF MICEX PWR 01.2009 1,218.25 1,034.87 1,490.77 1,304.24 475.3 744.04 01.2010 2,567.08 3,553.99 4,604.25 4,087.13 1,740.21 2,652.89 10.2011 3,096.82 6,078.98 6,742.34 5,769.64 2,929.58 3,434.02 01.2012 3,187.77 4,384.44 7,226.58 3,598.71 1,931.82 2,262.38 01.2013 3,396.21 5,456.11 7,995.5 2,918.6 2,029.63 1,813.26 01.2014 3,422.94 5,644.79 6,673.67 2,664.71 1,772.63 1,000.38 01.2015 4,176.82 5,640.29 10,330.7 4,535.6 1,054.38 797.5 01.2016 4,834.39 6,692.99 13,300.8 3,829.26 1,488.78 954.5 Source: Authoring, based on the Moscow Exchange official website data

Table 4 Forecasting the MICEX O&G index trends t Date MICEX O&G Trendline equation (Model) MICEX O&G Y (factual) Y (estimate and forecast)

1 01.2009 1,218.25 a0 = 1,386.724 1,798.015

2 01.2010 2,567.08 a1 = 411.2914 2,209.306 3 01.2011 3,096.82 У= 1,386.72 + 411.292 ⋅ t 2,620.598 4 01.2012 3,187.77 3,031.889 5 01.2013 3,396.21 3,443.181 6 01.2014 3,422.94 3,854.472 7 01.2015 4,176.82 4,265.764 8 01.2016 4,834.39 4,677.055 9 01.2017 – 5,088.346 10 01.2018 – 5,499.638

Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. 73 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80

Table 5 Forecasting the MICEX CGS index trends t Date MICEX CGS Trendline equation (Model) MICEX CGS Y (factual) Y (estimate and forecast)

1 01.2009 1,034.87 a0 = 2,142.551786 2,735.498

2 01.2010 3,553.99 a1 = 592.9457143 3,328.443 3 01.2011 6,078.98 У=2,142.551786 + 592.9457143 ⋅ t 3,921.389 4 01.2012 4,384.44 4,514.335 5 01.2013 5,456.11 5,107.28 6 01.2014 5,644.79 5,700.226 7 01.2015 5,640.29 6,293.172 8 01.2016 6,692.99 6,886.118 9 01.2017 – 7,479.063 10 01.2018 – 8,072.009 Source: Authoring

Table 6 Forecasting the MICEX CHM index trend t Date MICEX CHM Trendline equation (Model) MICEX CHM Y (factual) Y (estimate and forecast)

1 01.2009 1,490.77 a0 = 1,302.788571 2,634.519

2 01.2010 4,604.25 a1 = 1,331.730595 3,966.25 3 01.2011 6,742.34 У = 1,302.788571 + 1,331.730595 ⋅ t 5,297.98 4 01.2012 7,226.58 6,629.711 5 01.2013 7,995.5 7,961.442 6 01.2014 6,673.67 9,293.172 7 01.2015 10,330.7 10,624.9 8 01.2016 13,300.8 11,956.63 9 01.2017 – 13,288.36 10 01.2018 – 14,620.09 Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact 74 on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80

Table 7 Forecasting the MICEX M&M index trends t Date MICEX M&M Trendline equation (Model) MICEX M&M Y (factual) Y (estimate and forecast)

1 01.2009 1,304.24 a0 = 3,056,918929 3,175.045

2 01.2010 4,087.13 a1 = 118,1260714 3,293.171 3 01.2011 5,769.64 У = 3,056,918929 + 118,1260714 ⋅ t 3,411.297 4 01.2012 3,598.71 3,529.423 5 01.2013 2,918.6 3,647.549 6 01.2014 2,664.71 3,765.675 7 01.2015 4,535.6 3,883.801 8 01.2016 3,829.26 4,001.928 9 01.2017 – 4,120.054 10 01.2018 – 4,238.18 Source: Authoring

Table 8 Forecasting the MICEX MNF index trends t Date MICEX MNF Trendline equation (Model) MICEX MNF Y (factual) Y (estimate and forecast)

1 01.2009 475.3 a0 = 1,662.139286 1,665.618

2 01.2010 1,740.21 a1 = 3.478214286 1,669.096 3 01.2011 2,929.58 У = 1,662.139286 + 3.478214286 ⋅ t 1,672.574 4 01.2012 1,931.82 1,676.052 5 01.2013 2,029.63 1,679.53 6 01.2014 1,772.63 1,683.009 7 01.2015 1,054.38 1,686.487 8 01.2016 1,488.78 1,689.965 9 01.2017 – 1,689.965 10 01.2018 – 1,696.921 Source: Authoring

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Table 9 Forecasting the MICEX PWR index trends t Date MICEX PWR Trendline equation (Model) MICEX PWR Y (factual) Y (estimate and forecast)

1 01.2009 744.04 a0 = 2,540.608929 2,355.445

2 01.2010 2,652.89 a1 = –185.1639286 2,170.281 3 01.2011 3,434.02 У = 2,540.608929 + –185.1639286 ⋅ t 1,985.117 4 01.2012 2,262.38 1,799.953 5 01.2013 1,813.26 1,614.789 6 01.2014 1,000.38 1,429.625 7 01.2015 797.5 1,244.461 8 01.2016 954.5 1,059.298 9 01.2017 – 874.1336 10 01.2018 – 688.9696 Source: Authoring

Table 10 The training set Year Stock market, Derivatives Foreign Interest USD Brent MICEX GDP, IPI trading volume, market, billion exchange rate of rate oil, USD index billion RUB billion RUB RUB market, billion the RUB Central Bank of Russia, % 2016 311,180 115,271 329,954 10.5 59.62 54.89 2,195.07 61,097.5 101.3 2015 197,882 93,691 310,837 17 77.93 39.02 1,743.14 60,687.1 96.6 2014 204,018 61,601 228,546 10.5 33.93 63.43 1,470.57 63,049.2 101.7 2013 228,401 48,415 156,016 8.25 30.21 110.54 1,475.4 62,581.9 100.4 2012 182,670 49,969 116,980 8.25 31.18 108.78 1,460.44 61,791.6 103.4 2011 92,540 55,345 87,015 8.25 29.99 107.53 1,411.55 59,698.1 105 2010 64,030 29,350 79,519 8 29.83 92.15 1,663.62 46,321.8 107.3 2009 42,285 14,169 95,999 9 32.49 75.28 1,342.97 38,807.2 89.3 Source: Authoring

Figure 1 Key rates in the BRICS, EU countries, and the USA

Source: Authoring, based on The Main Directions of the Uniform Monetary Policy in 2016 and the 2017–2018 period

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact 76 on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80

Figure 2 The neural network graph – perceptron

Source: Authoring

Figure 3 The diagram of factual and forecast values

Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. 77 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80

Figure 4 The error contribution of the forecast inferred through the neural network

Source: Authoring

Figure 5 The forecast value of the neural network for 2017

Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact 78 on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 R.Kh. Il'yasov et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 68–80

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Please cite this article as: Il'yasov R.Kh., Kurazova D.A. Forecasting the Situation in the Financial Market and Evaluating Its Impact 80 on the Industry Development. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 68–80. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.68 E.A. Zvonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 81–89 pISSN 2073-8005 Securities and Financial Markets eISSN 2311-9438

Translated Article† ON CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES TO DEVELOPING THE EAEU COMMON FINANCIAL MARKET

Elena A. ZVONOVA Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected] orcid.org/0000-0002-8923-860X Corresponding author

Viktor Ya. PISHCHIK Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation [email protected] orcid.org/0000-0002-9013-7670

Article history: Abstract Received 25 October 2017 Importance This paper considers the development of Eurasian economic integration after the creation of Received in revised form the Common Economic Space. 8 November 2017 Objectives The article aims to develop conceptual approaches to the formation of EAEU common financial market. Accepted 22 November 2017 Methods In this work, the methods of comparative and statistical analysis are used. The article explores Translated 13 March 2018 the features of the EAEU members' national financial markets. Available online 27 March 2018 Results The article highlights and analyzes the criteria, goals, objectives, principles and expected stages of common financial market construction and substantiates methodological approaches to the creation of JEL classification: E31, E44, F36, F45, the common financial market of the EAEC countries. As well, the article presents a classification of financial F52 instability risks in the EAEU. Conclusions and Relevance The article concludes that the principles, structure and content of the measures of the concept of formation of common financial market of the EAEU Member States should be based on the model of evolutionary progressive development of the process of integration of the financial markets of the participating Keywords: financial market, banking countries, taking into account the peculiarities of national economies and financial systems. The results of services market, securities market, the research can find practical application in the activities of the Eurasian Economic Commission, as well as insurance market, financial stability, the ministries of finance and central banks of the EAEU Member States. It is proposed to establish the Eurasian institutional structure Financial Stability Board and supranational supervisory authority.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Currently† governments and central banks of the Concept for the Common Financial Market of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member States the EAEU in accordance with the Resolution of and the Eurasian Economic Commission are drafting December 26, 2016 at the session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council at the top level. †For the source article, please refer to: Звонова Е.А., Пищик В.Я. О концептуальных подходах к созданию общего финансового The significance of the documents correlates with рынка государств – членов ЕАЭС. Финансы и кредит. 2018. Т. 24. № the key role of the Common Financial Market in 1. С. 5–18. URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.24.1.5

Please cite this article as: Zvonova E.A., Pishchik V.Ya. On Conceptual Approaches to Developing the EAEU Common Financial Market. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 81–89. 81 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.81 E.A. Zvonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 81–89 the innovative development of national economies and As shown in Table 1, although the EAEU banking promoting the Eurasian integration in the mid-run. systems do not provide substantial financing to the real economy, banks of Russia and Belarus are more active Pursuing the integrity and consistency of the Concept lenders than those ones from and for Developing the EAEU common Financial Market Kazakhstan. (Concept), it is critically important to adhere to the fundamental regulatory and legislative documents Table 2 illustrates that the securities (stock) sector are adopted by the EAEU member States, consider national poorly diversified in the EAEU financial markets, playing specifics of economic development, banking and a different role throughout the respective economies. financial systems in respective countries, effective The stock market of Kazakhstan is relatively more concepts and strategies for developing their financial developed than the other EAEU markets. In 2016, markets. We believe the establishment of the Common the trading volume to GDP ratio was 92.86 percent in Financial Market should be critically revised so that its Kazakhstan's stock exchanges KASE and ETC as positive points, errors and drawbacks are taken into compared with 27.77 percent in the Moscow Exchange account. (MICEX) and Saint Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX). Trading volume in the Armenian Fundamental principles for the creation of the Common and Kyrghyz stock exchanges account for even lower Financial Market are stipulated in the Treaty on indicators. the Eurasian Economic Union1. Enclosed in the Treaty, the Protocol on Financial Services governs areas, The Development of Methodological process, measures and timelines for harmonizing Approaches to Developing the EAEU Common the national laws of the EAEU member States in banking, insurance and securities (stock market) for the Financial Market period up to January 1, 2025. We consider it necessary to supplement the defining criteria of the Common Financial Market as provided for Harmonizing the national laws of the EAEU countries in the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union2 with may become a cornerstone for the Common Financial the functional definition of the common financial Market, while the balanced, sustainable and liquid market emphasizing its role in the re-allocation of financial market of the EAEU will require much more resources among the counties for pursuing time like in the European Union as it concerns an economic growth and moving the EAEU integration distinctions in the scope, level and structure of forward3. Urging the countries to mutually invest in the national economies and financial markets of the real economy, the Common Financial Market is the EAEU member States. called to address such most important issues as Distinctions of National Financial Markets a) gradual transition to the national regime and/or in the EAEU 2 The Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union defines the concept of Models of the EAEU financial markets are the Common Financial Market as the financial market of member States, which meets such criteria as the compliance with harmonized predominantly bank-oriented. Their institutional requirements to the regulation and supervision of the financial market structure mostly features banking institutions, which of the member States; mutual recognition of licenses in banking, constantly reduce in numbers, thus reflecting the rapid insurance and securities as issued by official authorities in one of the member States; financial services throughout the Union without concentration of bank capital. setting up an additional office as a legal entity; administrative cooperation of official authorities of the member States, including The EAEU financial markets has not increased but through communication. Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union. rather decreased their significance in finance of the real Addendum 17, Article 3. URL: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/420205962 (In Russ.); http://www.un.org/en/ga/sixth/70/docs/treaty_on_eeu.pdf economy due to scarce and low liquidity seen for 3 the recent years (Table 1 and 2). The Common Financial Market shall be regarded as a combination of national financial markets and international financial market of the EAEU member States, which are supposed to reallocate financial 1 Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union signed by the Presidents of resources among them so as to ensure long-term investment in the real the Russian Federation, Republic of Belarus and Republic of Kazakhstan economy and drive innovative development of national economies, (Astana. May 29, 2014). URL: http://www.consultant.ru (In Russ.); make them sustainable and promote financial and economic http://www.un.org/en/ga/sixth/70/docs/treaty_on_eeu.pdf integration of the region.

Please cite this article as: Zvonova E.A., Pishchik V.Ya. On Conceptual Approaches to Developing the EAEU Common Financial Market. 82 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 81–89. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.81 E.A. Zvonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 81–89 the Most Favored Nation (MFN) treatment in certain institutions, which would allow for transacting sectors of the Common Financial Market in question; throughout the EAEU countries (like the financial b) gradual elimination of restrictions, exceptions, services passport for the EU and EFTA countries that additional requirements and conditions imposed make up the single internal market as part of concurrently with commitment to applying the national the European Economic Area comprising 31 States)4; treatment; c) increasing the available resources of • appropriate macroeconomic, macroprudential and the Common Financial Market, developing and foreign exchange and financial conditions shall be diversifying tools for investing in the real economy of created, including agreed-upon approaches to the countries [1]. maintaining financial sustainability, standards of Considering the difference of the national economies in currency and financial regulation and control. terms of their development level, banking and financial systems, the Common Financial Market can be Steps Towards the Common Financial Market successfully established provided that some essential and Their Substance principles are observed: As the EAEU countries evolutionize and head towards • step-by-step evolutionary algorithm for leading the Common Financial Market in the foreseeable future, the EAEU countries to the Common Financial Market; two steps can be pointed out, with approximate timelines being determined. The first step is stipulated • sensible combination of the national, in the Treaty of the Eurasian Economic Union, covering intergovernmental and supranational levels of the period from 2017 through 2024, while the second the Common Financial Market regulation; step may start in 2025 after the outcome of the first one 5 • approaching the creating of the Common Financial are evaluated . Market specifically, depending on a sector of The priority of the first step (2017–2024) is to harmonize the financial market and time; some basic principles of national laws of the EAEU • different and individual pace of moving the EAEU countries on finance, with the following interim steps of economies to the Common Financial Market to the Common Financial Market development being the extent certain countries are prepared and intend the most expected (before 2025): to implement the Common Financial Market initiative; – the EAEU shall develop the EAEU passport and extend • establishment of the supranational financial it to the EAEU financial institutions, which is to provide regulator, which would be able to integrate and them with equal business opportunities in the EAEU balance interests of each party to the Common (like the EU finance services passport); Financial Market initiative. – the common market of banking products and services Based on the fundamental principles, the consistent shall be created to help the EAEU banks easily access and comprehensive approach to the Common Financial national financial markets, harmonize the legislation Market initiative requires the following conditions should be met: 4 The European financial passport is a kind of license extended to financial institutions of one of the EU countries. It permits them to • the Common Financial Market actors shall provide operate in other EU countries in compliance with rules and each other access to all segments of the integrated requirements set by the European regulators. For example, 5,476 British companies have one or several financial passports for one or several EU financial market, including the currency one, by counties or European Economic Area, additional members of which are providing for the national treatment and/or MFN Iceland, Norway, Croatia and in fact Switzerland. In the countries of treatment in certain sectors of the Common Financial continental , about 8,000 financial companies have passports for operation in Great Britain. Market; 5 Analytical Report, On the Situation of Eliminating Mutual Access • the Common Financial Market actors shall declare of Barriers Impeding Operations in the EAEU Domestic Market, and Exceptions and Restriction in Relation to Flow of Goods, Services, Capital and their mutual recognition, including the introduction of Manpower. the so called Eurasian passport for financial URL: http://eec.eaeunion.org/ru/act/integr_i_makroec/dep_makroec_pol /developDocs/Documents.pdf

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and regulatory policy the banking sector of the EAEU Bearing in mind the predominantly bank-based model financial markets; for financing the EAEU economies, like in the EU, the common banking market should be created as – the EAEU countries shall eliminate differences in a priority at the second step of creating the Common requirements to residents and non-residence when Financial Market in the EAEU. It shall become they open and hold banks accounts; the underlying basis, being the most large-scale and 7 – parties shall perform agreed-upon and harmonized controllable segment of the Common Financial Market . principles for regulating and supervising actors of The EAEU banks are the most well structured and financial markets in the EAEU; leading institutional actors of the EAEU financial markets. They are easier to be collectively observed and – official authorities of the EAEU countries shall integrated into the common trading infrastructure, mutually recognize licenses issued by banking and accounting, clearing and payment systems [6]. non-banking financial intermediaries; The foreign exchange market of the EAEU countries, – the EAEU banks shall be permitted to deliver their which was historically integrated, also originated from services throughout the EAEU without establishing banks entering each other's stock exchanges. an additional office as a legal entity [2]; Non-banking financial intermediaries have been allowed to enter the EAEU integrated foreign exchange – the single stock zone of the EAEU countries shall be market only recently. Concurrently, at the first step, created by allowing brokers and dealers from one the EAEU countries form the common markets of State to stock exchanges of other member States [3]; securities and insurance, harmonizing the regulation – official authorities of the EAEU countries shall and oversight over operations in the EAEU financial cooperate concerning the issues of regulating markets, declaring mutual recognition of licenses issued financial institutions' operating, including to banking and non-banking financial intermediaries by communications; the EAEU official authorities, and so on.

– the EAEU member States shall enter into Harmonization principles underlie the creation of the Agreement on harmonized approaches to the common financial market at the first step, such as: the regulation of the legal exchange relations and • adoption of some common standards and rules to adoption of liberalization measures in the EAEU regulate all segments of the financial market, which Member States (The EEC Advisory Committee ratified would be acceptable for all the parties; the draft on August 9, 2017). The Agreement is supposed to ensure free cross-border movement of financial resources, form the common financial market in the member State [4]. The EAEU Financial is to set up well elaborated and refined legislative framework in the European financial markets. Hence, several dozens of legislative Stability Council shall be established; documents were adopted in three areas, i.e. securities, banking and insurance. The practical objective of FSAP is to provide financial – the supranational supervisory body of the EAEU shall companies with the uniform European passport granting them equal be established to regulate the common financial business opportunities throughout the EU. FSAP was to be implemented within five years. In 2005, The EU released the White market, being assigned a number of functions and Paper outlining financial service policies for the 2005–2010 period. The authorities [5]. White Paper was intended to develop the previous successful achievements and put the EU banking sector into spotlight. As a result Considering the importance of the first step and of the partial implementation of the FSAP second stage, European credit relevant actions, it would be reasonable to draw upon institutions entered into the pre-crisis 2007 being became more internationalized than the U.S. and Japanese banks. After the 2008 – the EU experience and put considerable efforts to set 2009 crisis, which unraveled the vulnerability of the banking sector, the up terms and procedures for extending the so called EU focused on the institutional consolidation of the European financial Eurasian passport allowing the EAEU financial market. 7 institutions to operate in all the EAEU countries6. As of the end of 2015, 3.7 trillion of debt securities were circulating in the internal market, being just a little more than 10 percent of loans obtained from the banking sector (54.4% of GDP in 2015). 6 For reference: The EU experience. In May 1999, the Financial URL: https://www.cbr.ru/finmarkets/files/development/onrfr_2016- Services Action Plan (FSAP) was adopted [10]. The main purpose of FSAP 18.pdf

Please cite this article as: Zvonova E.A., Pishchik V.Ya. On Conceptual Approaches to Developing the EAEU Common Financial Market. 84 Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 81–89. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.81 E.A. Zvonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 81–89

• concurrent appointment of the priority sector of the national financial markets and mechanisms for the financial market to be harmonized and jointly financial regulation and oversight and inclusion of regulated, being of systemic significance for the future the following unifying activities into the oversight integration. This is the banking sector in the EAEU. In practices alongside with the harmonization process: this respect, it coincides with the EU, where – creation of the common securities market and the banking sector prevails in the institutional common insurance market, thereby increasing structure of the Common Financial Market as well; the role of the Common Financial Market in investing • compliance with the principle for integrating sector of in the EAEU economies [7]; the national financial markets at individual pace, as – simplification of the EAEU procedures for listing stocks soon as they are prepared to and the political and derivatives; decision is taken depending on domestic conditions of the national markets; – formation of the common trading, payment, clearance and accounting infrastructure of the Common • those countries, which are interested in the Common Financial Market; Financial Market, shall prepare and implement the Plan for harmonizing their legislation on – concurrently with the harmonization process, the creation of the Common Financial Market. As the application of some aspects of unifying regulatory envisaged in the EU plan for developing the Common and supervisory measures which ensure smooth and Financial Market, member States shall adhere to effective operations in the Common Financial Market a gradual evolutionary approach to the harmonization and national financial markets of the EAEU countries process (step-by-step approach)8; as its constituents. • modality of the harmonization process implies certain Design and Consolidation of Institutional documents should be adopted at the supranational Structure for Regulation and Oversight in level and subsequently incorporated into the national laws9. the Common Financial Market

At the second step starting in 2025, the member States Adhering to the system approach to developing should carry out a set of actions to develop and the Common Financial Market, the EAEU countries shall reinforce the Common Financial Market in segments of not overlook an important aspect of the financial the markets of debt and equity securities and integration, such as measures for building the market insurance. The securities and insurance markets need infrastructure of the Common Financial Market as they to play a greater role in accumulating long-term streamline operations in the Common Financial Market, resources in order to drive the economic development creating such components as: of the EAEU countries. During the period, member • trading, payment clearing and accounting States build an operational model of the single infrastructure, common payment system; insurance segment within the Common Financial Market, seeing the development of the market of • common stock exchange zone; cross-sector products, instruments and services, and • integrated financial market with segments; sector of financial derivatives. The second step of the Common Financial Market development is expected • international financial center within the EAEU [8]. to result in measures for system integration of What is important for the institutional consolidation of

8 the EAEU countries is to create and develop the system Financial Services: Implementing the Framework for Financial Markets: Action Plan. Financial Services Action Plan Communication of of bodies charged with regulation and oversight of the Commission. the Common Financial Market so as to mitigate financial URL: http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/finances/docs/actionplan/ind stability risks in the region. In the banking sector of ex/action_en.pdf 9 the EAEU Common Financial Market, financial stability For reference: While being a part of the EU, Great Britain adopted 90,000 regulations accepted in the EU, accounting for 70 percent of all risks are associated with a) high concentration of assets the regulatory framework in Great Britain.

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Zvonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 81–89 in major banks; b) low capitalization level of banks; financial market sectors for macroeconomic stability. c) inactive lending to the real economy coupled with The Eurasian Financial Stability Market could be substantial overdue loan balances in the EAEU a successor of the existing the EEC Advisory economies as a whole; d) divergence of the EAEU Committee for Financial markets10 with certain banking regulation standards in terms of quality and operational restrictions11; quantity; e) insufficient and unequal use of • setting up a supranational supervisory body in macroprudential regulation tools in the EAEU [9]. the EAEU, which would regulate the common financial In the securities market, financial stability risks mainly market and comprise three sectoral regulatory arise from the low development level of the sector in institutions, i.e. a) banking; b) securities; the national financial markets, scarce supply of financial c) insurance12. products and tools, high volatility of the sector, To regulate the EAEU Common Financial Market considerable transaction and regulatory costs, lame effectively and mitigate financial stability risks, position of stock markets in capital expenditures. the supranational supervisory body is supposed to have To mitigate the financial stability risk, the following the following competence: 1) the right to make measures shall be undertaken: decisions binding for EAEU national regulators or directly financial institutions in certain areas of • enhancing the competitiveness and effectiveness of legislation and activities in financial markets; 2) the right the national economies and creating equal to immediately supervise too-big-too-fail financial opportunities for developing all segments of the EAEU institutions that are very important for the economy financial markets; and financial markets in the EAEU countries, and • strengthening the functional role of the stock market financial groups conducting financial activities in other and institutional significance of non-banking EAEU countries. intermediaries in ensuring financial inflows to The banking sector of the EAEU financial markets shall the economy; be congruent with standards of the Basel Committee on • improving the quality of regulation and oversight in Banking Supervision (BCBS). As accepted the banking market; internationally, regulatory and supervisory practices in banking of the EAEU countries evolve by actively • developing the risk-based regulation of banks, integrating international standards set by the BCBS. The introduction of the Basel II and Basel 2.5 standards process rests on such fundamental documents as Core concerning the market risk management; Principles for Effective Banking Supervision, • establishing the Eurasian Financial Stability Council International Convergence of Capital Measurement and subordinate to the Eurasian Economic Commission. 10 The Eurasian Financial Stability Council would outline Act on the Advisory Committee for Financial Markets. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/ (In Russ.) a body of rules and requirements with regard to 11 As per the Act on the Advisory Committee for Financial Markets governance of operations in the EAEU financial established by the Resolution of the EEC Board of October 25, 2012, the market. The competence of the Council may Committee is intended to give advice to representatives of the EAEU reasonable include a) articulating the conceptual member States and outline proposals for the EEC Board on such issues as formulation and enforcement of the harmonized policy for financial rationale for maintaining the financial stability to services (banking, insurance, securities, etc.) in the territories of the boost an economic growth in the EAEU inter alia by Parties; creation of conditions for expanding mutual trade in financial establishing a supranational body governing services and future formation of the uniform financial market; creation of favorable conditions for those entities operating in the territory of the sector-based financial market; b) justifying one of the Party to make investment in territories of other Parties. initiatives for refining the regulatory and legislative URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/ framework for developing the EAEU common financial 12 For reference: Based on the EU experience. The EU set up the market; c) formulating respective guidelines for European System of Financial Supervision (ESFS), which supervises the financial market and has three supervisory institutions, such as 1) the institutional organisms steering integration processes European Securities and Markets Authorities (ESMA), 2) the European in the EAEU and national institutions regulating Banking Authority (EBA); 3) the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA).

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Capital Standards (Basel II)13, Global Regulatory trade zones and customs unions to the common Framework for More Resilient Banks and Banking internal market, common financial market and Systems, International Framework for Liquidity Risk economic union. It is also worth mentioning that both Measurement, Standards and Monitoring (Basel III)14. regions opt for predominantly banking-based models of financial markets. Therefore, it would be reasonable to Currently, the EAEU countries make their autonomous critically review and use positive aspects of decisions on the adoption of the BCBS guidelines in the long-standing, ambiguous experience of accordance with their economic situation and financial the European Union in creating the European financial system. If the EAEU countries take concerted efforts to market. For example, financial institutions may be implement the BCBS principles, they will manage to granted a EAEU financial services passport during harmonize their regulatory regimes in banking the first stage, like it was done in the EU. It would successfully. It will enable them to forge uniform enable them to operate throughout the EAEU. There approaches to implementing international should be a road map for developing, consolidating recommendation in accordance with their regional the banking sectors of the EAEU countries and specifics and distinctions. Managing their systemic risks, harmonizing conditions for their common and joint the EAEU countries should cooperate in implementing 15 the macroprudential regulatory framework of work . the Financial Stability Board and G-20 in relation In the mean time, we suggest the EAEU should actively to too-big-too-fail financial institutions in the EAEU form the common markets for securities and insurance countries. at the first stage. They shall follow harmonization Conclusion principles and accomplish the process at the second stage. The article provides principles, form and substance of It is the most critical point for the EAEU Common the concept for developing the EAEU Common Financial Market. They are based on the model implying that Financial Market to consolidate intergovernmental and financial markets will be integrated on an evolutionary supranational regulatory and supervisory authorities on and gradual basis. The EAEU countries should choose an institutional basis. an appropriate algorithm and priorities, which best fit As part of the proposed concept, we suggest distinctions of their national economies and financial establishing the Eurasian Council for Financial Stability systems. They also should consider the financial and subordinate to the EEC Advisory Committee for economic integration level to take adequate measures Financial markets and giving it a powerful mandate to and decide on their preparedness to put them in regulate financial markets. We also believe it be practice [10]. Hence we would like to emphasize reasonable to set up a supranational supervisory body the importance of differentiating the sector, time and in the EAEU, which is called to outline a body of rules pace the countries can keep in developing the Common and requirements to the governance of the EAEU Financial Market and their successful integration. common financial market and its actors’ activities, and The conventional integration process is so similar in provide relevant recommendation to national and the EAEU and EU, consistently evolutionizing from free regional institutions for regulation and supervision.

13 Basel Committee for Banking Supervision. International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: A Revised Framework. URL: http://www.cbr.ru/today/ms/bn/bz_1.pdf (In Russ.); https://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs118.htm 14 Basel Committee for Banking Supervision. International 15 Analytical Review, On Basic Social and Economic Indicators of the Framework for Liquidity Risk Measurement, Standards and Monitoring. Eurasian Economic Union. Moscow, EEC Publ., 2015. URL: https://www.cbr.ru/today/ms/bn/2.pdf (In Russ.); URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/integr_i_makroec/dep_ https://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs188.pdf stat/econstat/Documents/Indicators201508.pdf

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Table 1 Trends in corporate lending in the EAEU countries, 2012–2016, million USD and percentage of GDP Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 million USD % of million USD % of million USD % of million % of million % of GDP GDP GDP USD GDP USD GDP Armenia – – – – – – – – – – Belarus 32,338 51 32,585 45 32,188 41 23,570 42.6 22,552 47.8 Kazakhstan 38,430 18.5 39,892 16.9 44,589 20.1 32,817 17.8 22,248 16.6 Kyrgyzstan 721 10.9 1,115 15.2 1,356 18.2 1,085 16.2 1,203 18.4 Russia 973,770 45.2 1,138,421 51 1,014,817 49.4 564,391 42.4 531,870 41.4 EAEU* 1,045,259 42.8 1,212,014 47.3 1,092,946 45.4 621,862 38.2 577,875 38.9 * Excluding Armenia Source: Financial statistics of the Eurasian Economic Union. Moscow, Eurasian Economic Commission, 2017, pp. 83–84. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/integr_i_makroec/dep_stat/finstat/Documents/finstat_2016.pdf (In Russ.); EEU in figures. Cart Statistical Book. Moscow, Eurasian Economic Commission, 2017, p. 53. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/integr_i_makroec/dep_stat/econstat/Documents/Brief_Statistics_Yearbook_2017.pdf (In Russ.)

Table 2 Trends in trading volume in the EAEU stock markets, 2012–2016, million USD and percentage of GDP Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 million USD % of million USD % of million USD % of million % of million % of GDP GDP GDP USD GDP USD GDP Armenia 12 0.11 41 0.37 152 1.31 29 0.26 114 1.08 Belarus 5,081 7.77 5,554 7.43 6,470 8.24 6,152 11.12 4,814 10.21 Kazakhstan 88,270 42.44 89,345 37.76 61,560 27.8 116,232 63.04 125,369 92.86 Kyrgyzstan 25 0.38 34 0.46 30 0.4 62 0.93 143 2.18 Russia 776,698 40.94 755,028 33.83 550,141 40.09 338,871 24.7 357,164 27.77 EAEU 870,089 35.6 850,002 33.19 618,353 25.71 461,346 28.32 487,604 32.83 Source : Financial statistics of the Eurasian Economic Union. Moscow, Eurasian Economic Commission, 2017, p. 86. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/integr_i_makroec/dep_stat/finstat/Documents/finstat_2016.pdf (In Russ.); EEU in figures. Cart Statistical Book. Moscow, Eurasian Economic Commission, 2017, p. 53. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/integr_i_makroec/dep_stat/econstat/Documents/Brief_Statistics_Yearbook_2017.pdf (In Russ.)

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Acknowledgments

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We, the authors of this article, bindingly and explicitly declare of the partial and total lack of actual or potential conflict of interest with any other third party whatsoever, which may arise as a result of the publication of this article. This statement relates to the study, data collection and interpretation, writing and preparation of the article, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Please cite this article as: Zvonova E.A., Pishchik V.Ya. On Conceptual Approaches to Developing the EAEU Common Financial Market. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 81–89. 89 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.81 A.N. Sukharev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 90–97 pISSN 2073-8005 Financial Control eISSN 2311-9438

Translated Article† MINIMUM RESERVE REQUIREMENTS FOR COMMERCIAL BANKS: THEORY AND PRACTICE

Aleksandr N. SUKHAREV Tver State University, Tver, Russian Federation [email protected]

Article history: Abstract Received 31 July 2017 Importance The article examines the rate of reserve requirements as a monetary policy tool. Received in revised form Objectives I give a more profound theoretical view of the way reserve requirements for commercial banks 3 September 2017 influence monetary and credit processes. Accepted 10 October 2017 Methods I rely upon formal logic, systems approach and analysis of statistical data. Translated 5 February 2018 Results I specify the macroeconomic mechanism of minimum reserve requirements. In this respect, I give Available online 27 March 2018 a walk-through example of changes in reserve requirements and their effects on the quantity of cash and non-cash money as part of the central bank’s monetary policy, including inflation targeting. I present my own JEL classification: E58 system of equations for monetary and credit aspects. It helps understand how changes in minimum reserve requirements influence the quantity of both cash and non-cash money in the economy (considering the demand for it). Conclusions and Relevance Being a monetary policy tool, statutory reserves can be used for microeconomic purposes of the national economy during crises, i.e. supporting the liquidity of the banking system as commercial banks can use them. However, there is a stable correlation between the demand for cash and non-cash money Keywords: central bank, cash, noncash, (in the short- and mid-term). Thus, altered minimum reserve requirements induce not only changes in the amount money supply, reserve requirements, of non-cash money in the economy, but also cash. In this respect, the central bank cannot use the minimum reserve statutory reserve rate as a tool of the monetary policy unless it adjusts the amount of cash money circulating in the economy.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Federal Law† On the Central Bank of the Russian the amount of cash money, but also altering reserve Federation of July 10, 2002 № 86-ФЗ (Article 35) requirements. They assume that an increase in reserve pronounces statutory reserves (statutory reserve requirements shall reduce the money supply in requirements) to be one of the main tools of the economy, and vice versa [4, 5]. Reserve the monetary policy. Statutory reserves of commercial requirements are normally regarded as one of the most banks are primarily designated to regulate money important tools of the monetary policy [6–8]. However, circulation, that is total money supply, thus controlling it is still a point of controversy whether this economic the inflation rate [1–3]. Central banks manage lever is effective [9–11]. In my opinion, a more complex the money supply in circulation not only by changing mechanism exists to manage the money supply in the economy, than the one which is usually described in †For the source article, please refer to: Сухарев А.Н. Норма macroeconomic textbooks and used by central banks in обязательных резервов для коммерческих банков: теория и making decisions on monetary regulation issues. практика. Финансы и кредит. 2017. Т. 23. № 41. С. 2456–2467. URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.23.41.2456

Please cite this article as: Sukharev A.N. Minimum Reserve Requirements for Commercial Banks: Theory and Practice. Digest Finance, 2018, 90 vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 90–97. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.90 A.N. Sukharev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 90–97

Assume a classic example of the effect statutory a medium of savings. The amount of m1 and m2 directly reserves have on the money supply in the economy. influences the level of prices, while m3 can do so only indirectly, when it morphs into m1 or m2. For example, the central bank injects 100 billion money units (MU) into circulation and sets up reserve As for the above components, the equation of exchange requirements of 20 percent. Economic agents open can be expressed in the following extensive form: accounts for 200 billion MU at banks, while the banks m 0⋅V 0+m1⋅V 1+m2⋅V 2= retain 20 percent of money in those accounts (40 billion = p1⋅q1+ p 2⋅q 2+…+ pn⋅qn , MU) and deposit it at the central bank as statutory reserves withdrawn from circulation. As a result, where m0 denotes the amount of cash money; 260 billion MU of cash and non-cash money totally V0, V1 and V2 mean the time it takes for various remains in the economy, including 200 billion MU of components of money (cash, electronic and held in non-cash and 60 billion MU of cash money. Economic accounts) to circulate when they are used for purchase agents may use cash and money at bank accounts for of goods, payment for services and work (the number payments. It is noteworthy that entities primarily settle of their turnover for a certain period of time); their accounts by wiring money. Therefore, the amount of non-cash money is another driver of inflation as well p1, p2, …, pn represent prices for various goods out of as cash. n;

When reserve requirements are lowered from 20 to q1, q2, …, qn stand for the number of goods (work, 12.5 percent, statutory reserves decrease down to services) purchased for a certain period of time. 25 billion MU (200 billion MU · 12.5%/100%), and cash It should be noted that each of the money components money increases by 15 billion MU. Hence total money (m0, m1 and m2) in circulation is usually involved at supply in the economy will account for 275 billion MU. different levels of commodity exchange relationships. As seen from the above example, changes in reserve Correspondingly, each money component directly requirements modify only the amount of cash money in influences the level of prices in their area of circulation. the economy, without influencing non-cash money. It Whereas money circulates among those levels, it also alters the ratio of cash and non-cash money, thus balances and coordinates prices determined by correspondingly increasing the percentage of non-cash components m0, m1 and m2. money in the total money supply in the economy. Such If cash money accounts for a higher percentage of total consequences are assumed to occur only in money supply intended for transactions, as a result of the short-term period, while the mid- and long-term a decrease in statutory reserve requirements, it will periods see the ratio of cash and non-cash money meddle in the ordinary payment procedure in recovering (in full or partially). the economy and redistribute percentages of cash and It is important to determine which type of money (cash non-cash money [12]. Under the ordinary payment or non-cash) influence the inflation rate and to what procedure, the public uses a generally accepted nature extent it does so. Three components of non-cash of payments in the economy at the given moment. This money shall be pointed out: is due to the fact that people use plastic cards with a different frequency and have their own payment – money available on plastic cards (e-money) (m1); preferences. Entities primarily make principal payments – money in settlements accounts (m3); by wire transfers across settlement accounts. This determines the amount of cash and cashless payments – money in deposit accounts (m2). in the economy, thus influencing the respective Components m1 and m2 represent money that serves balances. To say it in other words, there is as a medium of exchange, being involved in circulation. an equilibrium ratio of cash and non-cash money in Component m3 stands for money that serves as the economy.

Please cite this article as: Sukharev A.N. Minimum Reserve Requirements for Commercial Banks: Theory and Practice. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 90–97. 91 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.90 A.N. Sukharev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 90–97

If formalized, it can be expressed as follows: Mсash is the amount of cash money;

M сash =constant , Mnсash is the amount of non-cash money; M c MB is the amount of monetary base (in the strict sense); where Mсash is the amount of cash money; RR is the amount of statutory reserves;

Mc is the amount of non-cash money for settlements and payments in the economy. NR is reserve requirements (ratio);

This constant is relevant to a short period of time, Mc is the amount of non-cash money in circulation changing in a long-term one due to structural shifts in (non-cash money for transactions); the system of monetary payments. Ms is the amount of non-cash money for savings.

The proper ratio of cash and non-cash money will The first equation shows that total money supply in recover as cash money morphs into non-cash one. the economy equals the amount of cash and non-cash However, such transformation does not imply money. The second equation indicates that the amount the exchange of 1 cash RUB in for 1 non-cash RUB, but of cash money is the same as the amount of monetary relies upon a monetary multiplier – 1 cash RUB for base less statutory reserves. The third equation allows n non-cash RUB. In this example, the monetary us to assess the amount of non-cash money by multiplier equals 8 (1/0.125), i.e. 1 cash RUB converts multiplying statutory reserves. The forth equation into 8 non-cash RUB until the previous ratio of cash and means that the quantity of non-cash money is non-cash money recovers. Assume that in this example the non-cash amount in circulation (in settlement 60 billion MU of 200 billion non-cash MU serve for accounts and on plastic cards) and cash money circulation purposes (money for transactions), while intended for saving purposes (bank deposits). The fifth the remaining 140 billion MU are held in deposit equation is reflective of the fact that the money base (in accounts, i.e. being used for savings only. Therefore, the strict sense) is the sum of cash money and statutory there were 120 billion MU for transactions in reserves. The sixth equation indicates that there is the economy (60 billion MU in a cash and non-cash a certain correlation between the demand for cash and form). Cash money accounted for 50 percent of total non-cash money used for transactions (in circulation). money supply in circulation or 1 cash RUB is equivalent to 1 non-cash RUB for settlements and payments. Inserting the numbers into the equation, the result is as follows: To recover the former ratio, 1 RUB in circulation shall be remitted to statutory reserves to create 8 non-cash M =M сash+M nсash; RUB. M сash=100 billion MU – RR ;

To assess the amount of cash and non-cash money for M nсash=RR∣0,125; transactions given the former ratio of cash and M nсash=M c+140 billion MU; non-cash money recovers, the following system of MB=M сash+RR; equations shall be solved: M сash =2. M M =M сash+M nсash ; c M =MB – RR; сash Solving the system of equation, I roughly get that M =RR∣NR; nсash Mсash = 73.3 billion MU, Mc = 73.3 billion MU. Thus, M nсash=M c+M s ; the ratio of cash and non-cash money used for

MB=M сash+ RR; payments recovers up to the previous one (1:1). It

M сash requires to reduce the amount of cash money by =constant , 1.7 billion MU by remitting it to statutory reserves and M c increasing non-cash money by 13.3 billion MU, including where M is the amount of cash and non-cash money in the multiplier effect. Hence total money supply in the economy; the economy will rise by 11.6 billion MU (13.3 billion MU –

Please cite this article as: Sukharev A.N. Minimum Reserve Requirements for Commercial Banks: Theory and Practice. Digest Finance, 2018, 92 vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 90–97. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.90 A.N. Sukharev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 90–97

1.7 billion MU) up to 286.6 billion MU (cash money – processes shall be regarded as ideal conditions. 73.3 billion MU; non-cash money in circulation – However, they help comprehend complex monetary 73.3 billion MU; 140 billion MU – non-cash money for and credit processes in the economy by decomposing saving purposes). them into separate factors and steps.

Total money supply in circulation will grow by In the early 1990s, Russia had a 20-percent cap on 22 percent, from 120 billion MU (20-percent reserve reserve requirements, but even such measures were requirements) up to 146.6 billion MU (12.5-percent not enough to target inflation successfully and keep it reserve requirements). Assuming an equal and low. The Central Bank of Russia set up the inflation unchanged money velocity for cash and cashless target as much as 4 percent per annum in 2017. payments, it will induce a price growth by 22 percent. If Table 1 quantifies the money base (in the strict sense) decreased reserve requirements did not recover throughout 2002–2017. the former ratio of cash and non-cash money in circulation, prices would have grown slower, reaching As of January 1, 2017, statutory reserves accounted for 12.5 percent, provided that money in circulation 3.2 percent of the money base (in the strict sense). increased from 120 to 135 billion MU. During the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the Central Bank It is worth mentioning that the amount of money in of Russia had to support the banking system by deposit accounts proves to be almost inert in relation to permitting commercial banks to use statutory reserves changing reserve requirements in a short and mid run. so that they could increase their liquidity and solvency. There are no explicit mechanisms for altering them Such measures are unparalleled since statutory reserves were used as a tool for monetary regulation to after reserve requirements change. Ms reflects the income saved in the past. In a long-term period tackle microeconomic issues, thus contravening their growing prices (in the given case a growth stemming purpose [13]. Based on theoretical views of from decreased reserve requirements) unleash the substance and mechanism of statutory reserves, such measures should have resulted in a substantial a nominal growth in income, thus increasing Ms. Considering that the money base remains stable, this multiplication of non-cash money and inflation growth will instigate the demand for non-cash money Ms and [14, 15]. In fact, nothing of the kind happened. reduce cash money in circulation since they will be The reason may be that the demand for non-cash remitted to reserve requirements, being money has its own distinctions during the crisis in an indispensable measure for raising Ms. Concurrently the Russian economy and the decline in statutory the amount of non-cash money in circulation (Mc) would reserves did not last for a long period of time. For shrink. Assuming that the ratio of the three money base example, as of January 1, 2008 statutory reserves components (Mcash, Mc and Ms) would become as it was accounted for RUB 150.5 billion with the money base (in before reserve requirements had been lowered down the strict sense) of RUB 4.3 billion. However, in a year, to 12.5 percent (60:60:140 respectively), Mcash, Mc and Ms as of January 1, 2009, it amounted to RUB 19.6 billion will account for 70.6 billion MU, 70.6 billion MU and with the money base (in the strict sense) of 164.7 billion MU respectively provided the money base RUB 4.4 trillion. As of May 1, 2017 cash issued by of RUB 100 billion remains unchanged. Total cash and the Central Bank of Russia into circulation accounted non-cash money in the economy will amount to for RUB 8,630.5 billion, with the statutory reserves 305.9 billion MU, and money in circulation will account amounting to RUB 306.1 billion. Therefore, statutory for 141.2 billion MU. This will reduce its amount down reserves account for 3.4 percent of the money base (in to 5.4 billion MU to an extent (141.2 billion MU – the strict sense). 146.6 billion MU = – 5.4 billion MU). Ceteris paribus, it As shown in Table 1, the percentage of statutory will induce a decrease in the general level of prices by reserves in the money base varied within 2002–2007 in 4.5 percent (against the level prevailing before Russia. Those changes were divisible (the ratio of a reduction in reserve requirements). the highest and lowest percentages was 13.1%/0.4% = As a matter of fact, the money base is fluctuating. 32.75 times). In the mean time, such fluctuations of Central banks generally extend it. Thus, the above statutory reserves did not cause the same effect in

Please cite this article as: Sukharev A.N. Minimum Reserve Requirements for Commercial Banks: Theory and Practice. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 90–97. 93 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.90 A.N. Sukharev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 90–97 the money base (in the strict sense). The share of aggregate directly influences national trends in prices. statutory reserves diminished in the money base (in As for the money base in the broad sense, it represents the strict sense) from 3.5 (2008) to 0.4 percent (2009) the highest amount of cash money, which may circulate concurrently with slight changes in the money base under the current obligations of the Central Bank of increment (in the strict sense) driven by a growth in Russia [16, 17]. the quantity of non-cash money, rather than its volume. Central banks refuse to pay interests on statutory Identical inconsistencies of theory and practice occur in reserves due to the tradition tracing back to times when other comparable periods too. This may be due to central banks assumed issuing functions. They are still the fact that theoretical views of the monetary reluctant to part with income they earn. Being multiplier shall be further studied. non-profit organizations free from profit-making The central bank does not accrue interests on funds ambitions, central banks pursue profit of political commercial banks deposit. The central bank withdraws significance mostly [18]. Profit motivates central banks those funds from circulation, without gaining any yields less than losses they may have igniting possible severe and being bound to pay interests respectively. In fact, criticism about their management. Such circumstances the central bank does derive income from the funds. may inflict managerial rearrangements and staff's salary cuts. The public considers the central bank's The following simple example illustrates this statement. profit as a testimony to the effective financial Assume the central bank released 100 billion MU in management. cash for circulation purposes. The central bank effectuates such issues by purchasing income-bearing Whereas interests are not paid on statutory reserves financial assets. Therefore, the central bank acquires deposited with the central bank, commercial banks the title for the income-bearing financial assets for have to set an increased interest margin. Commercial 100 billion MU as well. Accepting 20 billion MU from banks shall transfer some of the funds and deposits commercial banks to make statutory reserves and they attract to the central bank. So, the funds and withdraw them from circulation, the central bank deposits will not generate income for commercial retains the same financial assets even if the total banks. Therefore, they need to ensure higher yields amount of cash money in circulation diminishes. From from funds they have available. Therefore, the higher perspectives of the balance sheet, it will have reserve requirements, the higher interest margin of the following presentation. Take the central bank's commercial banks shall be. Interest rates on loans grow assets for 100 billion MU of income-bearing financial correspondingly with reserve requirements. As I assets. The central bank's liabilities are the amount of conclude, as a tool of the monetary policy, statutory cash money in circulation (80 billion MU) and statutory reserves can be utilized for microeconomic purposes at reserves (20 billion MU). the national level during crises so as to maintain liquidity of the banking system by allowing commercial The Central Bank of Russia assesses the money base banks to rely on those reserves. Reserve requirements indicators in the strict and broad sense. The money are intended to regulate the volume of non-cash money base in the strict sense shall mean an amount of cash in the economy. money issued by the Central Bank into circulation, and statutory reserves credit institutions deposit at However, changes in reserve requirements inflict the Central Bank of Russia. The money base in the same in the volume of both cash and non-cash the broad sense constitutes the money base in the money since there is some sustainable correlation strict sense, money deposited with the Central Bank by between the demand for cash and non-cash money (in the enlarged government, commercial banks' funds the short- and mid-term period). In this case, the central deposited with the Central Bank and bonds issued by bank cannot make use of reserve requirements as the Central Bank. What the money base signifies a tool of the monetary policy unless it adjusts economically in its strict sense is that this money the volume of cash money in the economy.

Please cite this article as: Sukharev A.N. Minimum Reserve Requirements for Commercial Banks: Theory and Practice. Digest Finance, 2018, 94 vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 90–97. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.90 A.N. Sukharev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 90–97

Table 1 The monetary base (in the strict sense) and its structure, 2002–2017 As of January 1 Monetary base Cash in circulation Statutory reserves denominated Percentage of statutory reserves in the strict sense in national currency in the monetary base in the strict sense 2002 717.2 623.5 93.7 13.1 2003 935.1 813.9 121.2 13 2004 1,398.5 1,224.7 173.8 12.4 2005 1,746.2 1,669.9 76.3 4.4 2006 2,298.9 2,195.4 103.5 4.5 2007 3,208.3 3,062.1 146.2 4.6 2008 4,269.1 4,118.6 150.5 3.5 2009 4,391.7 4,372.1 19.6 0.4 2010 4,715.9 4,622.9 93 2 2011 5,912.8 5,785.2 127.6 2.2 2012 7,149.5 6,895.8 253.7 3.5 2013 7,959.7 7,667.7 292 3.7 2014 8,598.2 8,307.5 290.7 3.4 2015 9,139.8 8,840.5 299.3 3.3 2016 8,745.9 8,522.2 223.7 2.6 2017 9,076.2 8,789.8 286.4 3.2 Source: Authoring, based on the Central Bank of Russia website data. URL: http://www.cbr.ru

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Please cite this article as: Sukharev A.N. Minimum Reserve Requirements for Commercial Banks: Theory and Practice. Digest Finance, 2018, 96 vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 90–97. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.90 A.N. Sukharev / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 90–97

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Conflict-of-interest notification

I, the author of this article, bindingly and explicitly declare of the partial and total lack of actual or potential conflict of interest with any other third party whatsoever, which may arise as a result of the publication of this article. This statement relates to the study, data collection and interpretation, writing and preparation of the article, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Please cite this article as: Sukharev A.N. Minimum Reserve Requirements for Commercial Banks: Theory and Practice. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 90–97. 97 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.90 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107 pISSN 2073-8005 Innovation and Investment eISSN 2311-9438

Translated Article† DISTINCTIONS OF THE CROWDFUNDING MODEL IN AGRICULTURE

Natal'ya G. FILIMONOVA Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University (KrasSAU), Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation [email protected]

Mariya G. OZEROVA Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University (KrasSAU), Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation [email protected]

Irina N. ERMAKOVA Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University (KrasSAU), Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation [email protected] Corresponding author

Article history: Abstract Received 27 July 2017 Importance The article studies organizational and economic aspects of crowdfunding intended to finance Received in revised form agricultural projects. We provide methodological recommendations for designing and implementing 21 September 2017 the crowdfunding scheme in rural areas. Accepted 18 October 2017 Objectives We outline methodological recommendations for building a crowdfunding model to finance innovative Translated 8 February 2018 and investment projects in line with sectoral distinctions of agriculture. Available online 27 March 2018 Methods The research is based on general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, statistical and analytical data on performance results of crowdfunding platforms. JEL classification: Q14 Results We unfold distinctions of the crowdfunding model applied to agricultural projects, and provide our advice on the way agricultural projects should be pitched. Conclusions and Relevance Being a promising tool to raise the finance of innovative and investment projects in Keywords: crowdfunding, agriculture, crowdfunding has its sectoral distinctions to be considered in order to select a crowdfunding model crowdinvesting, crowdfunding platform, and arrange project presentation stages. Our recommendations can prove useful for agricultural producers and crowdfunding campaign, farming other entrepreneurs to select an appropriate crowdfunding model of innovative and investment projects in industry agriculture.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Irina M. Vechkanova

Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest 98 Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107

Creating† a stimulus for investment is one of As J. Howe [2] and N.A. Larionova [5] put it, the priorities pursued by the economic mechanism of crowdfunding essentially constitutes project or business the agricultural sector. The 2013–2020 governmental finance by persuading many people to make donations program for agricultural development and regulation of generally via the Internet. agricultural markets comprises the interim program, A rise of crowdfunding is also mirrored with growing Technical and Technological Retrofitting and Innovative numbers of crowdfunding platforms. According to Development, which triggered technological retrofitting Massolution’s research, in 2010, there were about 200 of enterprises, increase in variety selection plantings, websites, where business initiatives managed to totally use of modern holistic technologies of agricultural raise USD 854 million. In five years there were 1,250 production, and drew the finance into large investment crowdfunding websites with donations totaling projects in animal husbandry. However, investment USD 34.4 billion. The crowdfunding industry is forecast projects have not gained momentum due to insufficient to double in its volume, reaching USD 96 billion2. financial aid of the State. According to I. Ushachev, A. Serkov, V. Maslova and V. Chekalin, public investment Major crowdfunding websites pertain to the United fell from RUB 9.1 billion (2010) down to RUB 8.7 billion States of America. Entrepreneurs from any country may (2015) [1]. pitch or support projects and business interests there as beneficiaries or backers respectively. They can do Profit and loans still remain the main feed for most this on their own or through a representative. For agricultural producers in Russia. Fundraising volumes example, Kickstarter unites over 12 million people who grew by 12.3 percent in comparison with 20101. As successfully support more than 120 thousand creative the State subsidizes interests rates, thus making loans projects, with the finance approximating USD 3 billion. more affordable, the financial position of agricultural enterprises changes. First, it increases the percentage Kroogi pioneered the Russian market of crowdfunding of bank loans in current assets. Second, it reduces platforms in 2007. It was founded by leaders of a share of equity in assets. Planeta.ru and Boomstarter. Modeled like the U.S. platforms, they provide a great deal of methodological As agricultural enterprises raise more external funds, guidelines for new users to succeed in crowdfunding they figure out that there are not enough credit endeavors. institutions in the market. Currently, Russian Agricultural Bank and Sberbank serve about Specialized platforms for agricultural ventures have 78.5 percent of loans borrowed by agricultural entities. been emerging for recent years. Barnraiser and AgFunder are the leading ones. Alternative finance may well become a good option in this case. Public finance, or crowdfunding, is one of There are no special platforms for agricultural such options. businesses in the Russian market yet. However, crowdfunding gains momentum as a source of finance Researchers of crowdfunding regard it as a type of for startups and innovative projects in agriculture. It is crowdsourcing, i.e. using general public’s resources and enough to look at growing amounts of funds raised on information technology to support business, State or the largest Russian crowdfunding platforms society on a voluntary basis. Such views can be found in (Boomstarter, Planeta.ru). For instance, in 2014 proceedings by J. Howe, S.R. Sedel'nikov, A.N. Sivaks agricultural projects accounted for two percent of [2–4]. the total amount pledged by backers on the Boomstarter website. In 2015, their share grew up to four percent, with total donations of the platform †For the source article, please refer to: Филимонова Н.Г., Озерова М.Г., Ермакова И.Н. Особенности применения increasing as well (RUB 53,251,515 up to краудфандинговой модели финансирования в сельском хозяйстве. RUB 91,134,989)3. Финансы и кредит. 2017. Т. 23. № 42. С. 2523–2537. URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.23.42.2523 1 Russian State Statistics 2 Massolution/Crowdsourcing.org 2015CF Real Estate Service. URL: http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat Crowdfunding Industry Report. URL: http://reports.crowdsourcing.org/? /ru/statistics/publications/catalog/doc_1140096652250 (In Russ.) route=product/product& product_id=52

Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. 99 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107

As formulated by V.A. Tegin, B.F. Usmanov, the USA [12]. AgFunder (USA) pioneered the D.Yu. Boldaruk, I.I. Boldaruk, the modern crowdfunding crowdinvesting approach in agriculture; model comprises three fundamental parties, i.e. project 4) debt crowdfunding. Backers are rewarded with initiator suggesting the idea to be financed, certain interests on their loans. As M.K. Sanin mentions also persons or groups who back the idea, regulatory private interest-free loans, which are primarily organization (crowdfunding website) acting as granted to socially important projects [13]. an intermediary [6, 7]. Various technologies, products and types of activities K. Wenzlaff, M. Wallhauser, D.E. Guseva and facilitate all types of crowdfunding in agriculture. N. Malykhin classify crowdfunding by type of rewards, However, sectoral distinctions of agricultural production which are applicable to agricultural projects as well shall be taken into account in choosing a certain [8, 9]: crowdfunding strategy. According to Yu.V. Davydova 1) charity. Those who donate are not supposed to [14] and B.I. Smagin [15], they influence receive any reward for their contributions, or token the performance of agricultural business as a whole. rewards are given (gratitude, special mention in Fig. 1 depicts factors that determine which the mass media or on the website). In this case, crowdfunding strategy should be selected, and what the crowdfunding website accumulates pledges of distinctions of agriculture contribute to them. backers and transfers them to the project initiator. This type of crowdfunding is intended to support Social Impact. If the project delivers a socially socially important projects, like the construction and comprehensible result, that is, products or services repair of social infrastructure facilities in rural areas, the society needs, workplaces in a decaying village and assistance to rural community clubs, care facilities, so on, charity and conventional crowdfunding will be medical ventures, etc.); the best options notwithstanding some possible yield the project initiators may derive. 2) conventional crowdfunding. It is one of the most popular methods of crowdfunding in all industries, Project Scale. Following the underlying crowdfunding from IT to film production. In exchange for financial principle – many a little makes a mickle, project initiators aid, agricultural producers usually offer to supply may well raise quite substantial finance from smaller their products positioned as ecologically safe or investors. However, in practice it mainly works for unique on the preliminary order basis. Beneficiaries projects in the most popular industries, which are may also allow their backers to stay on the farm for interesting for mass consumption (music, cinema, several days, participate in crop harvesting, or literature, digital technology). Agriculture follows present them a collection of receipts, etc. As part of another path. Production and consumption are more this crowdfunding strategy, websites can act as often than not of local nature, being interesting only for a conduits of rewards. The specifics of such rewards those consumers who are geographically close to get is investigated in proceedings by D.A. Il'enkova, a full reward (fresh products) and sense the social effect A.Yu. Duk, M.D. Dzhamaldinova [10, 11]; of the project. Hence the agricultural entrepreneur can hardly ever gather considerable funds to implement 3) crowdinvesting, or equity-based crowdfunding. Backers large investment projects, counting on conventional get a share or an interest in the company’s profit. crowdfunding only or even debt crowdfunding. In case This crowdfunding strategy resembles conventional of large projects, they’d better opt for crowdinvesting investment models most of all. It was legally and engage professional investors instead of numerous approved and promoted after U.S. President Barack smaller ones. Obama signed the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act in April 2012, which permitted small investors to Profitability of Project and Return on Investment. This is put up money in startups and innovative projects in another metric we urge to consider when choosing a crowdfunding strategy in agriculture. If the business is 3 Marishchuk A. Kraudfanding vozrodit sel'skoe khozyaistvo estimated to generate less profit than the average in [Crowdfunding will revive agriculture]. the industry, the project can hardly lure respectable URL: https://rb.ru/opinion/crowd-agro/ (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest 100 Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107 investors, who aspire dividends or interests in profit. In The goal shall reflect the reason for fundraising, that is this case, traditional crowdfunding with non-monetary the creation of a new product, the construction of rewards seems to be an appropriate choice. If project an asset, arrangement for an event, etc. Whereas profitability is in the mid range (in comparison with the target amount proceeds from a crowd, the project competitive types of business), debt crowdfunding will initiator should formulate the goal in an original, be more reasonable. attractive and flamboyant manner. The goal shall pursue public interests, rather than personal and Therefore, agricultural entrepreneurs shall thoroughly business ones only. If the project is expensive, it is match the project metrics and economics and key reasonable to use the deferred goal technique. criteria of crowdfunding strategies and advisable scope The project is split into stages, with the goal being set at of the project (Fig. 2). the initial stage and vital for the project. After the project initiator chooses the most suitable Assessment of Financial Needs for Attaining the Goal. format of fundraising, another issue comes out. They The final declared amount usually consists of four need to decide on what platform the project will be components, i.e. the project value, fees of grounded. In this respect, popularity of a crowdfunding the crowdfunding website and payment systems, costs website is not the single option to mind, but it is of rewards to be created and dispatched, taxes. the model of finance that matters. The project value shall include all costs associated with We enumerate below the main models of fundraising the idea. However, keeping the budget as low as seen in crowdfunding platforms. According to the all-or- possible is perceived as the main financial task. In 2016 nothing scenario, the project initiator gets pledged the average value of an initial agricultural project was money only if the project reaches the target amount. RUB 440 thousand on Boomstarter, RUB 309 thousand Otherwise, money is returned to backers. As per on Planeta. The record high pledges reached the take-it-all scenario, project initiators may take RUB 1 million on Boomstarter (FoxWood project) and pledges, net of the platform’s fees, no matter whether RUB 690 thousand on Planeta (LavkaLavka project). As the project gather the declared amount or not. Some crowdfunding websites advice, ambitious financial goals platforms combine these models, thus enabling project are justifiable and feasible if the project has at least two initiators to choose between two models, while qualities below: the crowdfunding website adjusts respective fees in line with the extent to which the project attains the financial – the project conforms to the current trends, resonates goal (Table 1). with people and has intense information coverage;

Resorting to different finance models, crowdfunding – the project author is encouraged by many loyal business parties evaluate benefits and opt for a certain supporters (investors) who are interested in crowdfunding website. the project performance;

In the mean time, not every project pitched on websites – repeated project initiated by the author who proved is necessarily successful. This may be due to the fact to be competent and trustworthy in the first that designers rely upon a classical project technology crowdfunding campaign, demonstrated a reasonable and fail to consider distinctions of the crowdfunding use of raised funds4. campaign stages. We summarize advice from If the project succeeds in collecting a sufficient amount the leading international and Russian crowdfunding of pledges, crowdfunding platforms charge fees on websites and highlight those distinctions. the amount (Table 1). Assessing costs of rewards for Setting the Project Goal. The goal should be clear not investors is the most difficult task at this stage. Project only for the designer, but also for the public. Goals are initiators make their own estimates, considering how often vague and imprecise, i.e. rehabilitation of a farm, many rewards are promised and how much they cost. recovery of a rural area, development of Rewards shall not be a burden for the project since environmentally friendly production, etc. 4 Gorovaya V.V. Prakticheskoe posobie po kraudfandingu [Practical guide on crowdfunding]. Moscow, Planeta.ru Publ., 2016, 125 p.

Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. 101 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107 the primary goal is to raise funds. To avoid unexpected Addressing the target audience and investors, project expenses, many project initiators set up a limit of initiators form communication tools which are relevant rewards, thus making them more valuable. Estimating to each particular group. As stated by M.S. Kalinina [18] rewards, project initiators should also include delivery and S.V. Pozdnyakova [19], such tools vary, ranging costs into the budget, if rewards are supposed to be from liaison with the mass media, applying to the delivered. sectoral leaders for support, mailout, participation in fora, exhibitions and conferences, etc. However, a Resultant pledges remitted to project authors are special focus is put on the project page in social qualified as income and subject to taxes. An individual, networking media. who is a resident of the Russian Federation, shall pay the personal income tax as much as 13 percent, while Social media are currently regarded as interactive individuals, who are not residents of the Russian multi-user portals, which not only enable users to Federation for tax purposes, are charged a 30 percent communicate, but also unite them according to their tax. If the project is pitched by an individual interests and needs, thus becoming a pipeline of entrepreneur or legal entity, tax payments are assessed would-be sponsors. According to E. Mollick, the number in line with the tax treatment applied to them. of followers the project author has in social networks is not the only thing that matters. The followers should be The resultant amount comprises all the funds required willing to support the project by reposting its to perform the project, fees of crowdfunding platforms announcement [20]. Table 2 presents key indicators of and payment systems, costs for rewards and tax social activities influencing the outcome of expenses. The final amount is the financial goalof a crowdfunding campaign. the project. According to R.A. Dolzhenko, V.V. Ivanov, N.B. Sashenkova, the efficiency of a crowdfunding Crowdfunding Campaign Close. Assessing the project at project can be defined as the ratio of the project target the end of the crowdfunding campaign, project and crowdfunding costs [16, 17]. initiators determine the congruence of results with the underlying idea, identify positive and negative Project Timelines. There are two types of timelines in aspects and adjust the project, if appropriate. crowdfunding. The first one is the period planned for The successful completion of the crowdfunding the accomplishment of a business idea. As investors campaign opens the initial stage of the project need to understand how their pledges are spent, performance. At this stage of crowdfunding, project crowdfunding projects are short-term, lasting from six initiators come across another requirement to meet. to 12 months. If a big project is concerned, it shall be They have to report on the project completion through phased and have a budget. The second term is their personal accounts in social networks, project the period planned for a crowdfunding campaign. As website, thus maintaining sponsors' confidence, and the leading crowdfunding platform recommend, 30–60 securing future projects. days make an optimal time to raise funds5. Protracted As a conclusion, we shall note that crowdfunding can be crowdfunding campaigns (over 50 days) are less an effective tool to implement various projects in rural successful than shorter ones. areas (innovative, environmental, social, etc.). However, The project promotion begins with pitching the project like any other method of finance, it has drawbacks and on the crowdfunding website. The project profile challenging points. Hence it requires thorough planning usually features a description and video message. and elaboration of all its stages.

5 Kraudfanding na baze nefinansovogo voznagrazhdeniya: Kickstarter vs Indiegogo [Crowdfunding based on non-financial rewarding: Kickstarter vs Indiegogo]. URL: http://crowdsourcing.ru/article/kraudfanding_na_baze_nefinansov ogo_voznagrazhdeniya_kickstarter_vs_indiegogo (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest 102 Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107

Table 1 Characteristic of the most popular foreign and Russian crowdfunding platforms Website and Commence Project Theme Finance Finance Model location ment Volume Kickstarter (USA) 2009 Art, games, journalism, Over USD 3 The all-or-nothing scheme of finance. Payments include technology billion the platform charge (5 percent of the project pledges), payment system's charges. Projects are subject to moderation. The designer retain the title for the project, with environmental business ideas and projects being a priority. Projects for production of genetically modified organisms are not allowed Indiegogo (USA) 2008 Art, games, education, policy, Over USD 1 The flexible scheme of finance allows to choose technology, healthcare, billion the all-or-nothing or take-it-all scenarios. There are no traveling, fashion, charity geographical restrictions for finance. Payments include a 5 percent charge for the platform use, 3 to 5 percent charge of Pay Pal, 25 USD for money transfers outside the USA. Types of projects are unlimited Crowdfunder 2010 Art, sports, education, Over GBP 33 The all-or-nothing finance. Payments include a 5 percent (United Kingdom) technology, business, politics, million charge, Value Added Tax (20 percent of pledges), charge for charity the platform use, charge of Pay Pal (3.4 percent), transfer charge (GBP 20). Projects are limited. The project initiator commits themselves to rewarding its financial backers Planeta (Russia) 2012 Art, literature, fashion, Over RUB 600 The flexible finance scheme allows to choose between all-or- journalism, science, society, million nothing or take-it-all scenarios. Under the all-or-nothing social entrepreneurship, scenario, payments include a charge for the platform use as technology, charity much as 10 percent of the project pledges. Under the take-it- all scenario, the project initiation is to pay a 15 percent charge provided the project gathers from 50 to 99 percent of the declared value. Tangible or intangible rewards are obligatory Boomstarter 2012 Art, sports, technology, games, Over RUB 300 Pledges are collected on the all-or-nothing or up-to-target (Russia) design, fashion, charity million basis. Payments include a charge for the platform use as much as 5 percent of the project pledges, a 5 percent charge of payment systems, personal income tax. The project designer retains the title. Backers receive rewards Agfunder (USA) 2013 Agriculture Over USD 34 Companies undergo a verification process, with the priority million given to technological projects of high value added. A special back-up fund is formed for each project (AgFund), with the minimum investment of USD 10 thousand Note. The amount of finance is specified as of February 1, 2017. Source: Authoring, based on the overview of crowdfunding platforms

Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. 103 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107

Table 2 Social activity factors influencing the crowdfunding campaign success Indicator Average parameters of Top 3 representing agricultural projects on the Russian crowdfunding platforms in 2016 Planeta Boomstarter The project initiator's number of followers in social networks: Facebook 1,056 425 Vkontakte 633 272 Pieces of news and updates in the crowdfunding 3 13 campaign account in social networks The number of comments 12 32 Shared in Facebook 35 1,427 in Vkontakte – 318 The number of sponsors/backers 72 282 Total pledges, thousand RUB 439 1,490 Source: Authoring, based on the overview of crowdfunding platforms

Figure 1 Sectoral distinctions and key criteria for choosing the crowdfunding strategy in agriculture

Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest 104 Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107

Figure 2 The comparative characteristic of crowdfunding types in accordance with key selection criteria

Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. 105 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107

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Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest 106 Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 N.G. Filimonova et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98–107

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Please cite this article as: Filimonova N.G., Ozerova M.G., Ermakova I.N. Distinctions of the Crowdfunding Model in Agriculture. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 98–107. 107 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.98 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120 pISSN 2073-8005 Financial Theory eISSN 2311-9438

Translated Article† APPLICATION OF THE COMMITTEE MACHINE METHOD TO FORECAST THE MOVEMENT OF EXCHANGE RATES AND OIL PRICES

Viktoriya V. AKBERDINA Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, , Russian Federation [email protected] Corresponding author

Nikolai P. CHERNAVIN Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation [email protected]

Fedor P. CHERNAVIN Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation [email protected]

Article history: Abstract Received 30 October 2017 Importance This article discusses the forecasting of financial asset prices considering the most liquid and known Received in revised form financial assets of currency and commodity markets, such as currency pairs of USD/RUB, EUR/RUB, CAD/USD and 13 November 2017 the Brent crude oil. Accepted 27 November 2017 Objectives The paper aims to show that in financial markets, a great number of traders and analysts are shaping Translated 12 March 2018 the demand for new interesting analytical tools, develop a methodology for establishing committee machine Available online 27 March 2018 designs and principles of their use in financial markets, and show real practical results of the committee machine method use. JEL classification: C38, C53, C65, G17 Methods To forecast the price of financial assets, we used a committee machine method based on majority voting. Data from the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and FOREX market are used as a source of information on market prices. Results The paper shows the conditions for the applicability of the decision rules received in real trade. For illustration purposes, the decisions given in the article are analyzed by income from January 7, 2010 to May 23, Keywords: committee machine method, 2017. data analysis, financial market, currency Conclusions and Relevance The paper concludes that the committee machine method is applicable as a tool for rate, oil forecasting real time financial asset prices.

© Publishing house FINANCE and CREDIT, 2017 The editor-in-charge of this article was Irina M. Vechkanova Authorized translation by Andrey V. Bazhanov

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast 108 the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120

Introduction D.J. Kaylor back in 1965 [1, 2]. Further contribution to the development of the method was made by S. Bláha † Financial markets can be called a unique place where [3], M.L. Osborne [4], R. Takiyama [5]. Russian scientists data are not just ephemeral figures, but can be a source have significantly developed the method theoretically of unlimited profit. For this reason, millions of people and practically. Especially, the works by Drs. Sci. in are constantly watching them every day, seeking to Physics and Mathematics V.D. Mazurov and understand the dependencies invisible to the unaided M.Yu. Khachai, and other authors [6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, eye. 13, 14], N.N. Krasovskii Institute of Mathematics and It is because of this desire, almost all known methods of Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy data analysis are reflected in the financial market. If of Sciences (IMM UB RAS), can be noted. previously, the main attention was paid to simple As part of this work, we assume that the committee empirical models built on the subjective perception of machine method can effectively predict the direction of the market by an analyst or trader, now due to financial asset price movements. So, this work aims to the development of computing technologies, complex show the practical application of the committee mathematical models that can provide an objective machine method to forecast exchange rates and oil view of the market are getting more and more prices. practiced. Technical Analysis People implementing such models are called quantum hedge fund managers. Hedge funds applying the models Technical analysis of financial markets is a set of are respectively called quantum hedge funds. At methods to predict the future changes in the price of a the beginning of 2010, quantum funds accounted for financial asset based on the past movement of its price only about 13.75 percent of total trading session in and volume of trading session. The objective of this the American market, and they were significantly analysis is to answer a simple question: whether the inferior to the traditional asset managers and other financial asset quotations are going to go up or down, hedge funds. However by the beginning of 2017, or slightly fluctuate. quantum funds performed about 27.5 percent of total There are numerous methods of technical analysis, trading session, becoming the absolute leader in terms which can be divided into the following two main types of this indicator1. in the general form2: Thus, we can say that the study of mathematical – a graphical analysis; modeling methods in financial markets is one of the most demanded areas of research in the field of – a quantitative (mathematical) analysis. data analysis. The methods of graphical analysis are related to the The committee machine method refers to classification construction and analysis of the financial asset price methods, yet despite its considerable analytical charts. Such an analysis seeks to find price models on potential, it has not been widely applied in financial different charts representing a certain construction, markets. which is manifested on the price chart in such a way that its finished formation predetermines the future The concept of committee method was introduced in direction of the trend. the articles on recognition of images by C.M. Ablow and The peculiarity of the graphical method is its simplicity. †For the source article, please refer to: Акбердина В.В., Finding price models on the chart does not require Чернавин Н.П., Чернавин Ф.П. Применение метода комитетов special knowledge and performance of thorough к прогнозированию движения валютных курсов и цен на нефть. Финансы и кредит. 2017. Т. 23. № 46. С. 2746–2761. calculations. However, the main drawback of such URL: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.23.46.2746 1 Zuckerman G., Hope B. The Quants Run Wall Street Now. 2 Gavrilov A.E., Loginova V.A., Bayanova Yu.A., Smelova T.A. Rynok URL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-quants-run-wall-street-now- tsennykh bumag (tekhnicheskii analiz) [Securities Market (Technical 1495389108 Analysis)]. Volgograd, VolgSTU Publ., 2006, 170 p.

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. 109 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120 methods is that the selection of any model is a In the committee machine method, such experts subjective process, the result of which depends more (neural networks, predictors) are several dividing linear on the analyst than the market condition. Any trader discriminant hyperplanes called committee constituent has his own thoughts concerning the movement of experts. Each of them votes for the decision market quotes, and often unconsciously, he diligently individually, dividing the set into two classes. The searches and selects those models only that are in line majority, unanimity and precedence logic can be used with his ideas. to make a single combined decision based on all individual decisions of the committee predictors. Because of the subjectivity of graphical analysis tools, their application requires a confirmation through other Let us make a reservation that we are going to consider methods that provide a greater objectivity. These the committee machine method based on majority methods include the methods of quantitative analysis voting in this work. The simplest geometric example of based on the comparison of quantitative values the committee of majority (hereinafter for brevity sake, calculated by certain mathematical formulas on the majority committee) of three experts for two classifiers basis of stock-exchange information about the asset is shown in Fig. 1. (price, volume, number of deals, etc.). Fig. 1 shows the division of a set of points into two Such a comparison allows to determine the market's classes with the help of a three-expert committee condition objectively and, on the basis of that, make the machine. The arrows show the direction of voting of final decision on securities purchase or sale operations. each committee expert, and the oval curves circle Despite the objectivity of such methods, they do have classification errors. The mathematical representation some shortcomings though. The main drawback of of the majority committee of t-experts is as follows: quantitative analysis methods is the lagging nature of p ⋅xt +bt− L⋅z t ≤ε ∈J ,t ∈T ; the signals obtained by it. At the same time, many ∑ ij i j j 1 i∈I methods require complicated calculations and t t t appropriate understanding. ∑ pij⋅xi +b +L⋅z j ≥−ε j ∈J 2 ,t ∈T ; i∈I

Committee Machine Method t ∑ z j ≤ m+L⋅y j j ∈J 1 ,t ∈T ; Mathematical analysis of financial markets has an t ∈T impressive arsenal of data analysis methods. This t ∑ z j ≤ m+L⋅y j j ∈J 2 , t∈T . article examines the operation and use of the t ∈T committee machine method, which helps get some generalized decision in contradictory situations, when With the following minimum objective function: there is no unambiguous decision [6]. min ∑ y j , j ∈J From a mathematical point of view, the committee machine method is a linear discriminant combination, where J1 и J2 are the sets to be divided; dividing a set of points in the space of factors into two J =J ∪J is the set of observations; classes. Due to simultaneous use of several linear 1 2 discriminant classifiers, the committee machine method I is the set of observation parameters; takes into account nonlinear relations of variables that increases the quality of classification [15]. T is the set of committee experts (hyperplanes);

The method name is related to the fact that the i, j, t are the indices of the corresponding sets; method's operation logic resembles the logic of work of pij is the i-th parameter of the j-th observation an ordinary committee as a collegial governing body, (a constant); where the combined response and decision are made t on the basis of its multiple members and experts' xi are the coefficients of hyperplanes (decision responses and decisions. variables);

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast 110 the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120 bt are the absolute terms of hyperplanes (sought activities decline in the American market3 and taking quantities); into account a biological clock of the trader.

L is the gillion used for the conditions fulfillment rigor; In accordance with the strategy, we specify the parameters of the future model in the form of ε means very small numbers used for the rigid a relative price change, Table 1. restrictions; Naturally, time intervals and logic of behavior may be z t j is the Boolean variable to commit a violation of different, but to form a decision rule, they should be the sets partition conditions; clearly articulated, because the collection and processing of information for previous periods are yj is the computation error; done according to a certain trader's behavior model. m is a minority, that is, less than half of the experts (a set constant). In addition, it is necessary to determine the depth of historical analysis, that is, for how many previous Trading Strategy periods we are going to take into account the information in the mathematical model. To determine the parameters of the mathematical model, we first need to make a trading strategy of Moreover, the information can be presented in a trader. absolute and relative forms. However, as the methods of presenting the information do not affect the form of To develop a strategy, we posit the following as mathematical models, we will use the model shown a hypothesis: In a trading day, it is possible to single out earlier. certain periods of time, the change in prices during which has the greatest impact on the market. The Results Within the framework of this hypothesis, we selected For the comparative analysis, we have collected some time periods for the analysis (all the periods are the exchange rate data on USD/RUB, CAD/USD and specified according to Moscow Time) based on EUR/RUB, and Brent crude oil price for the period from the following logic. January 8, 2015 to May 23, 2017 on the website of the Finam Holdings company4. 1. The first fifteen minutes after opening the market should not be taken into account. At the opening, The sampling of these financial assets is not random, as the behavior of market participants is unpredictable, the USD/RUB and EUR/RUB currency pairs are the most since this is the time for Main Street traders, not Wall liquid instruments of the currency section of Street traders. Hence, such price movements will be the Moscow Exchange. The CAD/USD currency pair was a sort of information noise for the mathematical also chosen for comparison, since RUB and CAD are model. referred to currencies dependent on the movement of oil prices. Table 2 presents the correlation of currency 2. The next point for the analysis is 11:45am. By this pairs data and Brent oil price. time, it is possible to judge the first reaction of the market already. Moreover, the European markets Based on the correlation coefficients from Table 2, we have already opened by this time (in the winter time, can say that there is a strong inverse correlation they open at 11:00am), and the Bank of Russia between EUR/RUB, USD/RUB and Brent oil price (from ± exchange rate (11:30am) has been set already, which 81% to ± 100%). There is a moderate direct correlation matters for a number of commercial operations. between CAD/USD and Brent oil price (from ± 61% to ± 80%). In connection with such a strong relationship, we 3. The opening of the American market is another important point in trade for all markets. 3 Strategii Foreks. Teoriya torgovli po chasam [Forex Strategy. Time- 4. As the end point of the last period, we specify 20:40, schedule Trading Theory]. URL: http://stocktime.ru/strategy.html (In Russ.) as by 20:00 Moscow Time (MSK), the business 4 FINAM. URL: https://www.finam.ru/analysis/quotes/ (In Russ.)

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. 111 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120 will also analyze Brent oil quotations using • the classification for each class on the learning and the committee machine method. validation sets has more than 50 percent of success.

On the basis of the information for the previous In accordance with the indicated conditions of periods, we have formed a learning set. For simplicity, it applicability of the model, all the results from Table 1 do is broken down into two classes: rising and falling not fit on real trading. quotes. To make a committee expert decision, we Let us try to improve the quality of the model by choose a learning set from January 8, 2015 to February increasing the number of committee experts to five. 28, 2017, which contains 510 observations. Accordingly, Table 5 presents the results of classification of the validation set includes the rates from March 1, 2017 the majority committee of five experts. to May 23, 2017, which contains 55 observations. Table 3 presents the number of observations in The results from Table 5 show that on the learning the learning and validation sets dividing the quantity sample the majority committee shows the result of into classes J1 and J2. more than 58.94 percent for all instruments, which is more than four percent more than the minimum result In accordance with the trader's strategy described in Table 4. earlier, the analysis task is to make a committee decision for predicting the direction of price movement The validation set of USD/RUB and CAD/USD shows for the selected instruments from 10:15am to 20:45. a decrease to less than 50 percent.

Table 4 shows the results of classification of the majority It can be noted that the results by class have become committee of three experts as a percentage of correct more adjusted. The minimum result in the learning set predictions for each particular class and for the whole set. is 43.41 percent, which is more than 20 percent higher than the minimum result in the learning set in Table 4. Table 4 indicates that the majority committee shows the result above 54.73 percent in the learning set for all Although the results for the model of five committee the instruments. The final result in the validation set for experts are lower in the validation set than for the three all the instruments, except USD/RUB, differs from committee experts model, in the case of five committee the result in the learning set by no more than two experts, Brent oil quotation shows a significant increase percent. In case of USD/RUB, the result in the validation in quality. set has decreased significantly, i.e. to 45.45 percent. The final result for both the learning and validation sets However, it should be noted that all the results show is higher than 63 percent. Moreover, in each particular a prevalence of predictive ability of the decision rule to class, the correct predictions make not less than 50 successful prediction (above 50 percent) for only one percent, so this decision rule can be called satisfactory class of sets with the highest number of observations in according to the conditions of applicability chosen. a period. The decision rule factors are given in Table 6.

For example, in case of Brent oil, the correct predictions Given the high correlation of the studied currency pairs and oil, it is of certain interest to add a binary for J2 are 20.22 percent in the learning set, and in parameter to the currency pairs that takes the value of the validation set, they are 3.85 percent only. As market +1, if the oil price from 10:15am to 20:45 increased trends are subject to change, it is necessary to consider the previous day, and the value of –1, if it fell. Table 7 the conditions of applicability of the model as a trading presents the results of classification of the majority strategy. committee of three experts with six parameters for Let us call the model applicable as a trading strategy, if the selected currency pairs. by its characteristics, it is not inferior to random actions Table 7 shows that the majority committee of three without strategy, that is if it meets the following experts for six parameters gives the result of more than conditions: 50 percent in both the learning and validation sets. For • the final classification on the learning and validation CAD/USD and EUR/RUB, it is impossible to note any sets has more than 50 percent of success; significant changes, because for the 2nd class, the result

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast 112 the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120 has remained less than 50 percent (the maximum result previously, it was 51.85 percent). The decision rule is 43 percent). factors are given in Table 9.

However, the quality of the model for USD/RUB shows So, we have two decision rules that meet the chosen a significant improvement with the minimum result criteria of applicability as a trading strategy. difference for both classes. For the learning set, However, given the binary specificity of the prediction the difference of the results between the 1st and 2nd that takes on the value of either the movement of classes is 5.88 percent, and for the validation set, it is quotes up or down, it is natural that the problem of risk 1.72 percent only. Accordingly, taking into account associated with absolute price change comes to light. the fact that USD/RUB has the greatest correlation with oil, it is possible to make an assumption about For example, a decision rule can give ten correct improving the quality of the model when adding some predictions about the price change by 0.1 percent, but it parameters to it that have a high correlation with will suffice to have one wrong prediction with a change the available parameters. of 1 percent to lose all profits. Therefore, in order to make sure that these strategies really work, that is they Despite the satisfactory results concerning USD/RUB, it are able to bring profit, it is necessary to calculate is still early to talk about the applicability of the results the theoretical profitability of the strategy for the obtained as a trading strategy, because the validation calculated period. The chart shows the profitability of set result is 52.73 percent only, which is just slightly the strategies taking into account a simple investment more than the trading results without any strategy of funds, that is in case the invested funds are not (the success probability is 50 percent). replenished. Therefore, given the increase in the quality of the model As may be seen in Fig. 2, the Brent strategy shows of five committee experts for USD/RUB, it is of certain a much faster increase in profitability compared to interest to try to improve the result obtained by USD/RUB. The May 23, 2017 difference between increasing the number of committee experts. For the strategies' profitability was 113.71 percent. At comparison, we make calculations for other currency the same time, the chart shows that the USD/RUB pairs. The results of calculations of the indicated model strategy for the whole period under study is more are presented in Table 8. stable in comparison with the less long and strong Based on the results presented in Table 8, it is possible periods of profitability declining. This result largely to note the improvement of results on all currency pairs reflects the specifics of the financial assets, as within in comparison with similar results from Table 7. the period under study, oil is more volatile than However, as before in CAD/USD and EUR/RUB, despite the USD/RUB currency pair. the high results in the learning set, the results in However, these results were calculated for the period the validation set do not meet all the requirements of the decision rule was created. This does not allow to say the quality of the model. about the stability of the strategy under changing But the results for USD/RUB pair, which, with five market conditions. parameters, has already shown satisfactory results, For more thorough study of the decision rules, we try to could get improved considerably through adding just check their results for the previous periods, since 2010. one parameter more. The final result compared to the similar result from Table 6 has increased by 3.72 To begin with, let us consider the results of voting of percent for the learning set, and by 7.27 percent for the the decision rules on USD/RUB and Brent oil for validation set. The difference between the results in the specified period, presented in Table 10. the learning and validation sets is 4.31 percent only, Based on Table 10 data, it is possible to say about which helps draw a conclusion of the model's stability. stability of the USD/RUB decision rule to changes of Moreover, the quality requirement for the distribution market conditions. For all the years reviewed, of results between the two classes, which became the aggregated results for both the sets (J) had a higher compared to the previous results, is now met success rate above 50 percent. The criteria of

(the minimum result is 55.69 percent, whereas applicability for the individual sets (J1 and J2) correspond

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. 113 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120 to the results for 2012 and 2014, but the minimum Based on the calculations, we show that the selected result is 46.32 percent, which is slightly different from number of committee experts has a significant impact the target condition (not less than 50 percent). on the quality of models. Also, to improve the quality of models, it is good to take into account not only For Brent oil, the results on J comply with the parameters directly related to the financial the applicability conditions for 2010, 2011, and 2013 instrument, but, if possible, consider the parameters only. The condition for J1 and J2 is not met in any with indirect influence. considered year. The final result for USD/RUB for the five years only slightly does not meet the conditions In this paper, the price of Brent crude oil is an example of applicability (J1 < 50% by 0.25 percent), whereas for of such a parameter, as we analyze the currencies Brent oil, the discrepancy on this condition is 16 percent. having the expressed correlation with oil.

In connection with the results obtained, it is of certain The results of this work are empirically deduced interest to check the theoretical profitability in the new conditions of applicability of the decision rule as period under consideration without taking into account a trading strategy. the training period. Fig. 3 presents these results. Two decision rules corresponding to the selected According to Fig. 3, it is possible to say that, as well as in conditions for Brent oil and USD/RUB are created. As to Fig. 1, Brent oil considerably surpasses USD/RUB as to Brent oil, the final result is 63.19 percent of correct profitability, despite much stronger prognostic results predictions in the test set and 63.64 percent in from Table 10. the validation set. As to USD/RUB, the final result is 64.31 percent of correct predictions in the test set and Moreover, USD/RUB shows extremely low results for the whole period. They do not exceed 16 percent, taking 60 percent in the validation set. periodically some negative values of profitability even. During the review of the decision rules on historical From mid-July 2014, the profitability starts plummeting. data for the period from January 7, 2010 to December The December 31, 2014 loss on USD/RUB would be 31, 2014, it was shown that these decision rules do not 21.46 percent, and as to Brent, it would be –2.66 percent. have absolute universality, because the prognostic The marked drop in yield can be linked to the beginning ability has decreased in comparison with the learning of a sharp fall in oil prices, which also had a significant and validation sets. impact on the USD/RUB rate. The low profitability for A positive point, which allows to say about the whole period of time until July 2014 allows to draw the prospects of further research, is the fact that the following conclusions. the USD/RUB pair, in general, retain the acceptable First, the chosen strategy works best for the assets results (very close to the selected conditions of possessing high volatility, as Brent oil at a low applicability). prognostic ability, yielded to USD/RUB, has considerably It should be noted that due to the continuous changes outstripped it by profitability. in the market environment, to use the committee Second, given the fact that on the learning set with machine method as a trading strategy, it is necessary to a higher prognostic capacity, the profitability is update the learning set and make the model actualized significantly higher (Fig. 1 and 2), it seems logical to periodically. make an adjustment to the 2nd condition of Also, we note that the study used the quotations on the admissibility of the decision rule as a trading financial instruments only, without taking into account strategy. For this purpose, it is to be said that the final classification should have at least 60 percent of success. many important factors, such as the trading volume and open interest, which are also included in the field of Conclusion technical analysis of financial markets.

The use of a committee decision for forecasting Moreover, fundamental factors, including regular the direction of exchange rate movements is macroeconomic data, can be taken into account to permissible and yields acceptable results in real trading. improve the accuracy of the model.

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast 114 the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120

Table 1 The method of calculating the relative change in price Parameter Description of calculation method

p1j (Rate on 10:15 yesterday / Rate on 20:45 the day before yesterday) – 1

p2j (Rate on 11:45 yesterday / Rate on 10:15 yesterday) – 1

p3j (Rate on US Exchange opening yesterday + 15 minutes / Rate on 11:45 yesterday) – 1

p4j (Rate on 20:45 yesterday / Rate on US Exchange opening yesterday + 15 minutes) – 1

p5j (Rate on 10:15 today / Rate on 20:45 yesterday) – 1 Source: Authoring

Table 2 Correlation between currency pairs and Brent crude oil Oil CAD/USD EUR/RUB USD/RUB Brent crude oil 69.55% –86.28% –90.65% Source: Authoring

Table 3 The number of observations for each class of learning and validation datasets Learning dataset Validation dataset Assets J1 J2 J1 J2 CAD/USD 281 229 32 23 EUR/RUB 275 235 32 23 USD/RUB 255 255 28 27 Brent crude oil 264 246 29 26 Source: Authoring

Table 4 Classification of the majority committee of three experts for five parameters Assets Learning dataset Validation dataset

J1 J2 J J1 J2 J CAD/USD 90.75 27.95 62.55 96.88 17.39 63.64 EUR/RUB 86.91 32.34 61.76 90.63 21.74 61.82 USD/RUB 40.78 76.86 58.82 14.29 77.78 45.45 Brent crude oil 83.96 20.22 54.73 96.55 3.85 52.73 Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. 115 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120

Table 5 Classification of the majority committee of five experts for five parameters Assets Learning dataset Validation dataset

J1 J2 J J1 J2 J CAD/USD 69.97 45.24 58.94 56.25 34.78 47.27 EUR/RUB 78.83 43.41 62.65 71.88 34.78 56.36 USD/RUB 76.08 50.98 63.53 64.29 33.33 49.09 Brent crude oil 51.84 73.72 63.19 75.86 50 63.64 Source: Authoring

Table 6 The coefficients of decision rule for Brent crude oil

t t t t t t t x1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 b 1 0.143 –1.321 0.692 4.286 1 0.026 2 3.42 –1.154 –1.078 1.263 1 –0.012 3 –3.252 –2.339 2.342 –1.788 –1 0.09 4 –1.055 –2.08 –0.14 –1.794 1 –0.026 5 0.626 –0.399 –0.425 –0.251 –1 –0.016 Source: Authoring

Table 7 Classification of the majority committee of three experts for six parameters Assets Learning dataset Validation dataset

J1 J2 J J1 J2 J CAD/USD 93.95 27.07 59.27 96.88 21.74 65.45 EUR/RUB 78.91 42.13 57.45 62.5 39.13 52.73 USD/RUB 57.65 63.53 60.59 53.57 51.85 52.73 Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast 116 the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120

Table 8 Classification of the majority committee of five experts for six parameters Assets Learning dataset Validation dataset

J1 J2 J J1 J2 J CAD/USD 95.37 27.07 64.71 93.75 0 54.55 EUR/RUB 69.09 62.13 65.88 53.13 34.78 45.45 USD/RUB 55.69 72.94 64.31 57.14 62.96 60 Source: Authoring

Table 9 The coefficients of decision rule for USD/RUB

t t t t t t t x1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 b 1 129.015 –102.942 11.836 5.316 –0.639 –1 2 145.826 –380.49 –121.69 –143.466 –39.39 1 3 –38.392 387.635 22.057 8.109 65.28 1 4 –135.653 191.393 37.203 219.293 39.313 1 5 –38.574 –127.759 –53.782 –58.133 –104.635 –1 Source: Authoring

Table 10 The results of voting of the committee experts for decision rules on USD/RUB and Brent crude oil (2010 to 2014) Year USD/RUB Brent crude oil

J1 J2 J J1 J2 J 2010 48.04 60.34 54.59 62.04 43.64 52.75 2011 46.32 58.65 51.67 61.48 41.53 51.67 2012 54.23 59.81 56.63 67.83 30.6 47.79 2013 47.06 61.9 54.69 78.81 33.07 55.1 2014 53.19 57.53 55.83 72.22 21.93 48.33 Total for 5 years 49.75 59.6 54.7 68.59 34 51.09 Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. 117 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120

Figure 1 The majority committee of three experts for two parameters: An example

Source: [16]

Figure 2 A chart of profitability on strategies for Brent crude oil and USD/RUB (January 8, 2015 to May 23, 2017)

Note. Dates are given in the DD/MM/YY format. Source: Authoring

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast 118 the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120

Figure 3 A chart of profitability on strategies for Brent crude oil and USD/RUB (January 7, 2010 to December 31, 2014)

Note. Dates are given in the DD/MM/YY format. Source: Authoring

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Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. 119 https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108 V.V. Akberdina et al. / Digest Finance, 2018, volume 23, issue 1, pages 108–120

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We, the authors of this article, bindingly and explicitly declare of the partial and total lack of actual or potential conflict of interest with any other third party whatsoever, which may arise as a result of the publication of this article. This statement relates to the study, data collection and interpretation, writing and preparation of the article, and the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Please cite this article as: Akberdina V.V., Chernavin N.P., Chernavin F.P. Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast 120 the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices. Digest Finance, 2018, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 108–120. https://doi.org/10.24891/df.23.1.108