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Population Viability and Connectivity of the Louisiana Black Bear (Ursus Americanus Luteolus)

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Population Viability and Connectivity of the Louisiana Black Bear (Ursus Americanus Luteolus) Prepared in cooperation with the University of Tennessee, Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Population Viability and Connectivity of the Louisiana Black Bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) By Jared S. Laufenberg and Joseph D. Clark Open-File Report 2014–1228 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2014 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1–888–275–8747) For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Laufenberg, J.S., and Clark, J.D., 2014, Population viability and connectivity of the Louisiana Black Bear (Ursus americanus luteolus): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014–1228, 104 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141228. ISSN 2331-1258 (online) Acknowledgments Funding was provided by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Roy O. Martin Timber Company, Black Bear Conservation Coalition, University of Tennessee, and U.S. Geological Survey. Special thanks go to Maria Davidson (Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries) and Debbie Fuller (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) for their logistical and contractual assistance and Terry White (University of Tennessee) who provided administrative support throughout this project. We gratefully acknowledge University of Tennessee Master of Science students M. J. Hooker, C. L. Lowe, J. C. Troxler, and K. C. O’Connell and Louisiana State University Master of Science students J. F. Benson and A. C. Crook who collected much of the data for the study. We wish to thank the many technicians and land owners that contributed to this project for their hard work and hospitality, respectively. R. B. Chandler (University of Georgia) assisted with the capture-mark-recapture modeling, and P. Beier (Northern Arizona University), H. L. Beyer (University of Queensland), M. S. Boyce (University of Alberta), S. Ciuti (University of Freiburg), J. D. Forester (University of Minnesota), R. Greco (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), S. L. King (U.S. Geological Survey), B. T. McClintock (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), T. L. McDonald (West, Inc.), A. Saxton (University of Tennessee), and K. A. Zeller (University of Massachusetts) provided valuable assistance with the step-selection function analysis. Thanks also go to D. Paetkau for guidance with population genetics analyses. We are grateful to J. L. Belant (Mississippi State University) and D. L. Garshelis (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources) for providing samples for DNA analysis, to M. J. Chamberlain (University of Georgia) for radio telemetry and reproduction data, and to J. Goad for conducting aerial telemetry. iii Contents Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................................................... iii Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Purpose and Scope ................................................................................................................................................. 6 Description of Study Area ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Methods ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Population Viability Analyses .................................................................................................................................. 7 Data Sources ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Live Capture and Radio Tagging ......................................................................................................................... 8 Winter Den Visits ................................................................................................................................................. 8 Radio Monitoring ................................................................................................................................................. 8 Survival Rates of Radio-Collared Adult Female Bears ........................................................................................ 9 Reproductive Rates of Radio-Collared Adult Female Bears .............................................................................. 11 Non-Invasive DNA Sampling ............................................................................................................................. 12 Model Fitting, Estimation, and Inference ........................................................................................................... 16 Demographic Rates from the Capture-Mark-Recapture Dataset ....................................................................... 16 Stochastic Population Modeling and Extinction Risk Assessment ..................................................................... 20 Connectivity analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 24 General approach .............................................................................................................................................. 24 Population Structure Analysis from Genetic Data .............................................................................................. 24 Migrant Analysis Based on Genetic Data .......................................................................................................... 26 GPS Telemetry Data to Estimate Successful Interchange Rates and Paths ..................................................... 27 Results ...................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Population Viability Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 31 Survival Rates of Radio-Collared Adult Female Bears ...................................................................................... 31 Reproductive Rates of Radio-Collared Adult Female Bears .............................................................................. 35 Demographic Rates from Capture-Mark-Recapture Data .................................................................................. 37 Stochastic Population Modeling and Extinction Risk Assessment ..................................................................... 45 Connectivity Analysis ............................................................................................................................................ 50 Population Structure Analysis from Genetic Data .............................................................................................. 50 Migrant Analysis Based on Genetic Data .......................................................................................................... 67 GPS Telemetry Data to Estimate Successful Interchange Rates and Paths ..................................................... 67 Discussion ................................................................................................................................................................ 76 Population Viability Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 76 Survival Rates of Radio-Collared Adult Female Bears ...................................................................................... 76 Reproductive Rates of Radio-Collared Adult Female Bears .............................................................................. 77 Demographic Rates from Capture-Mark-Recapture Data .................................................................................. 78 Stochastic Population Modeling and Extinction Risk Assessment ..................................................................... 80 Connectivity Analysis ............................................................................................................................................ 82 Population Structure and Migrant Analysis
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