'If I Was Blaine Higgs, I Would Be in the North'
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12 juillet 2017 – Times & Transcript ‘If I was Blaine Higgs, I would be in the north’ ADAM HURAS LEGISLATURE BUREAU Blaine Higgs is pictured as he is named the new leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick last year. PHOTO: ADAM HURAS/LEGISLATURE BUREAU The current four-seat majority inside New Brunswick’s provincial legislature presents a path to victory for either the Liberals or Tories that could be as simple as focusing on the handful of ridings that were narrowly decided last time around, says a political science professor. Université de Moncton’s Roger Ouellette says watching exactly where party leaders pop up over the next two months will provide valuable insight into whether that’s the election game plan. It will also start to tell the inverse: whether the Progressive Conservatives will attempt to break a Liberal stronghold in the province’s north shore and exactly where the Grits think gains can be made in the south. “If I was Blaine Higgs, I would be in the north,”Ouellette said in an interview with the Telegraph-Journal, when asked what political leaders should do with their summer.“If I was Brian Gallant, I would find more stops in the south. “Every riding will be important, but at this stage the Liberals have every francophone riding in their pocket.” He quickly adds: “Is that enough? No. That’s why right now is important for both parties.” 12 juillet 2017 – Times & Transcript Recounts were held in seven of the province’s 49 ridings in 2014, largely due to technical glitches with a new electronic voting tabulation machines, but also signalling just how close riding runoffs were in a few areas of the province. Saint John East was originally won by the Liberals by a margin of just nine votes before an abrupt resignation from winning candidate Gary Keating. The Progressive Conservatives won a subsequent byelection handily. That left the Liberals with just three seats in the south. Among them, Liberal Ed Doherty won Saint John Harbour by 71 votes and John Ames defeated incumbent Progressive Conservative Curtis Malloch in Charlotte- Campobello by 194 votes, battle ground ridings in 2018, Ouellette said. Andrew Harvey then won Carleton-Victoria by 82 votes, a riding first contested in the 2014 general election after an electoral boundaries redraw that combined portions of the Progressive Conservative stronghold of Carleton and Victoria- Tobique, a riding that also belonged to the Tories in 2010, but had a recent history of voting Liberal. Fredericton North was won by Stephen Horsman by 144 votes over the incumbent Tory Troy Lifford. Flipping or holding those seats could be enough for either party to secure an election win. “There are major efforts that go into targeting specific ridings,” JP Lewis, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick Saint John, said in an interview. “I don’t see why that wouldn’t be the starting point for both the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives. “Having said that,the downside of that kind of targeting is that you can paint yourself into a corner. Sure, you might be strong in one region, but if for generations your party isn’t winning in another region than that so-called path to victory gets a lot smaller.” To make inroads in all areas of the province means boots on the ground now. 12 juillet 2017 – Times & Transcript “The easy part is being known inside the bubble with political insiders,” said Jesse Robichaud, who was former premier David Alward’s press secretary during his four years in office and also part of his 2014 election campaign bid.“After that,it’s‘how can you ensure what you’ve built winning the leadership? How can you make that translate to the broader population?’” Robichaud, now a consultant with En-sight, a public affairs firm in Ottawa, said parties are readying their campaigns earlier than in the past. “The work that’s going to be going on this summer and throughout next year becomes that much more important where at all times there is opportunities to be gaining, increasing your engagement level with voters,”he said. He added: “With legislated electoral dates, we’ve seen that pre-campaign process become more and more important. It’s sort of an extended campaign.” The 2014 election saw the Liberals wrestle away the riding of Shippagan- Lamèque-Miscou by 44 votes from former deputy premier and four-time incumbent Paul Robichaud,one of the few longer-held Progressive Conservative seats in the north. Whether Higgs begins to make inroads in the north,potentially beginning there, remains to be seen. “It’s incredibly important for the Progressive Conservative party to reach out to francophones,”Ouellette said.“For the moment, it’s silent. “They must have a plan for the summer, a barbecue circuit or something. Higgs has to do that and it’s not only speaking French,it’s also to connect with people on the ground and then recruiting some interesting candidates.” This is part a series by the Telegraph-Journal’s parliamentary reporter and provincial editor Adam Huras teeing up New Brunswick’s summer of politics now just over a year from the next provincial election. Part 1: New Brunswick’s political summer BBQ circuit: Where the leaders are going, and what it tells us about the looming election .