Three-Way Tie on the Eve of Chicago’S Mayoral Election

February 24, 2019

TO: Interested Parties FROM: Jane Loria, Change Research RE: Three-Way Tie on the Eve of Chicago’s Mayoral Election

Change Research recently polled likely and early voters in Chicago, Illinois for 270 Strategies, finding Lori Lightfoot, Bill Daley, and Toni Preckwinkle tied atop a very close race to elect the city’s next Mayor. With fewer than than 0.4 percentage points between the three front-runners, Tuesday’s contest will be an extremely close race to secure the two berths in the very likely runoff election.

Below are key highlights from the poll:

● Toni Preckwinkle, Lori Lightfoot, and Willie Wilson are most popular candidates among Black or African American voters. Gery Chico and Susana Mendoza lead among Hispanic and Latinx voters.

● Among female voters, Toni Preckwinkle (16%) and Bill Daley lead the crowded field. Among male voters, Lori Lightfoot (17%) and Bill Daley (13%) are the most popular candidates.

● Among early voters, Bill Daley and Paul Vallas lead with 12% each. Jerry Joyce, Toni Preckwinkle and Lori Lightfoot follow with 11% each.

● Toni Preckwinkle ultimately wins the plurality of voters who are unsure of their vote. Undecided voters, when asked to determine who they would vote for if they had to decide, choose Toni Preckwinkle (17%), Gery Chico (14%), and Bill Daley (14%).

● When asked to identify their second choice, 15% of voters name Bill Daley. Toni Preckwinkle (17%), Gery Chico (14%), and Bill Daley (14%). ○ 28% of Toni Preckwinkle’s supporters choose Lori Lightfoot as their second choice. ○ 24% of Lori Lightfoot voters choose Toni Preckwinkle as their second choice. ○ 46% of Susana Mendoza voters choose Bill Daley as their second choice. ○ Bill Daley’s supporters are most evenly split when asked to name a second choice: 19% choose Gery Chico and 14% choose Lori Lightfoot.

● Potential runoff election matchups reveal Lori Lightfoot’s strengths. ○ The closest runoff race tested is between current frontrunners Lori Lightfoot (40%) and Bill Daley (35%), with the remaining 25% undecided. ○ In a potential runoff between Lightfoot and Toni Preckwinkle, Lightfoot wins 42% of the vote, compared to Preckwinkle’s 25%. ○ In a potential runoff between Daley and Preckwinkle, Daley takes 39% of the vote to Preckwinkle’s 32%.

● Voters are concerned about Chicago’s financial stability, identifying the issue as the most important consideration in choosing a mayoral candidate. ○ The top issue, cited by 18% of all voters, is financial stability. ○ Female voters identified crime (19%) and gun violence (19%) as the most important issues while male voters surfaced city finances (23%) and property taxes (16%) as their most pressing concerns.

Change Research conducted an online poll February 22-24, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. Using its Bias Correct Engine to attain a sample reflective of the city’s electorate, Change Research polled 706 likely special election voters. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 Presidential vote. With a sample size of 706, the margin of error of this survey is ±3.7%, as traditionally calculated at 95% confidence interval.