Exploring options for agricultural development A case study in China Promotor: Prof.dr.ir. H. van Keulen Hoogleraar bij de Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Wageningen Universiteit Co-promotor: Dr.ir. H. Hengsdijk Onderzoeker, Plant Research International, Wageningen Universiteit en Researchcentrum Promotiecommissie: Prof.dr. A. Kuyvenhoven Wageningen Universiteit Prof. Q.H. Shi Jiangxi Agricultural University, P.R. China Dr.ir. S.J. Oosting Wageningen Universiteit Dr. R.P. Rötter MTT Agrifood Research, Finland Dit onderzoek is uitgevoerd binnen de 'C.T. de Wit'-onderzoekschool: Production Ecology and Resource Conservation. Exploring options for agricultural development A case study in China Jiayou Zhong Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor op gezag van de rector magnificus van Wageningen Universiteit Prof.dr. M.J. Kropff in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 12 februari 2008 des ochtends te elf uur in de Aula. Jiayou Zhong, 2008 Exploring options for agricultural development: A case study in China Ph.D. Thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands, —with ref.— - with summaries in English and Dutch - ISBN: 978-90-8504-824-4 To My father Zhong Guifu My mother Xiao Chengxiu My wife Fuhong My daughter Zhong Xie Tzu-chang asked Master K’ung about Goodness. Master K’ung said, ‘He who could put the Five into practice everywhere under Heaven would be Good.’ Tzu-chang begged to hear what these were. The Master said, ‘Courtesy, breadth, good faith, diligence and clemency. He who is courteous is not scorned, he who is broad wins the multitude, he who is of good faith is trusted by the people, he who is diligent succeeds in all he undertakes, he who is clement can get service from the people.’ Confucius (551 BC-479 BC) (Translated by Arthur Waley). The Analects. Foreign Language Teaching and Research Press, Beijing, China (1998), pp. 229-231. Abstract Zhong, J.Y., 2008. Exploring options for agricultural development: A case study in China. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands. With summaries in English and Dutch, 196 pp. China’s agriculture faces a series of challenges, i.e. guaranteeing national food security, increasing farmer’s income and reducing the adverse effects on environment and human health associated with the use of fertilizers and biocides. At the same time, the availability of resources (e.g. agricultural land) decreases. The objective of this study is to operationalize a methodology to assess the effectiveness of new crop and livestock technologies in attaining rural development goals, using Jiangxi Province as a case study area. Cropping and livestock systems, quantified in terms of inputs and outputs, are used as the smallest unit of analysis in this study. The new, also referred to as alternative, cropping systems comprise cultivation of Super Rice varieties and introduction of site-specific nutrient management (SSNM), integrated pest management (IPM) and mechanization in rice production. In alternative livestock systems, improved animal breeds, chemical treatment of crop residues and improved management in animal husbandry are adopted. A regional land use model, based on linear programming techniques, is used to assess the contribution of these alternative cropping and livestock systems to rural development goals. The results indicate that adoption of Super Rice varieties is most effective in attaining national grain security, while integration of Super Rice with improved beef cattle fattening systems is most effective in increasing income. Competition between livestock and rice production is limited, since high quality feed can be produced in rotation with rice without requiring additional rice land, and on non-rice land. Both, SSNM and IPM are most effective in reducing adverse environmental and human health effects, but hardly improve economic returns. Mechanization of rice production strongly reduces labour requirements in agriculture, leads to higher returns to labour and provides opportunities to work off-farm. When both, alternative crop and livestock systems are adopted concurrently, the goals of grain security, increasing rural income and reducing environmental pollution can be realized simultaneously. Results of this study contribute to the formulation of agricultural policies and a research agenda aiming at stimulating rural development in China. Keywords: Linear programming; Land use model; Technology assessment Acknowledgements First, I extend my sincere thanks to my honourable master, Prof. Shi Qinghua. Prof. Shi, I will be forever indebted to you for your profound kindness. Without your trust and support, I would not have had the opportunity to study at Wageningen University. I thank you, my esteemed teacher, for your thoughtful attention to my study and my life. My gratitude to you is unbounded! I never expected that I would be so fortunate as to be supervised by Prof. Herman van Keulen and Dr. Huib Hengsdijk. I first met Prof. Herman van Keulen at a workshop in Beijing in 2002. My first impression was that he is a gentle and friendly man. In the subsequent five years, I learned that he is also a distinguished scholar, which is a unique combination. Herman, I admire your extensive knowledge and profound scholarship. Your thorough and detailed editing and critical comments on the manuscripts contributed much to the finalization of this thesis. I will never forget your valuable advices. I met Dr. Huib Hengsdijk in the hot summer of 2002 in Nanchang. He was modest, friendly and experienced. Dr. Huib, I am indebted to you for your arduous supervision and thank you for your generosity. I have benefited a lot from your experience in the field of land use studies. You have helped me to overcome countless barriers in the past years. Your combination of compassion and strictness to my work has led to the realization of this thesis. Prof. Herman and Dr. Huib, what you have taught me will benefit the rest of my life. I owe you a great debt of gratituded! I am grateful to Dr. Prem Bindraban for his relentless support during my study. Dr. Prem, thank you for your friendship, discussions, and for your input to Chapter 2. I am indebted to Dr. Peter Leffelaar, who introduced me in the field of systems analysis. I benefited greatly from his teaching. I extend my sincere thanks to Dr. Nico de Ridder, who has taught me so much about land use analysis. I appreciate the discussions I had with Dr. Martin van Ittersum, which were helpful to my study. I also thank my teachers Dr. ir. R.A. Schipper at Development Economics Group, Dr. ir. J.J. Stoorvegel at Land Dynamics Group, Dr Mark van Wijk at Plant Production Systems Group and Dr. ir. Walter A.H. Rossing at Bioloigical Farming Systems Group. I thank Prof. Huub Spiertz for the fruitful discussions with me. I am grateful to my teachers Prof. Dr. Ir. A.G.M. (Alfons) Oude Lansink at the Business Economics Group and Prof. Peter Midmore at School of Management and Business of Aberystwth University in Wales for their teaching about methods of analyzing agricultural policy. I thank Dr. Jacques Neeteson of the Business Unit Agrosystems Research of Plant Research International for facilitating my work in Wageningen. Especially, I thank Peter Uithol for editing the manuscript, and Irene Gosselink, Mira Teofanovic and Elise ter Horst-Jacobs for helping with administrative issues. I am grateful to Ir. H.G. van der Meer, my co-promotor’s roommate, for his kindness and friendship. I thank Prof. Ken Giller, head of the Group Plant Production Systems, for his encouragements and advice. I also thank Ria van Dijk and Charlotte Schilt for providing excellent administrative support. I am grateful to Dr. Clauidus van de Vijver at the C.T. de Wit Graduate School for Production Ecology and Resource Conservation (PE&RC) for his help, particularly for his valuable advice. I would like to thank Ir.Tommie Ponsioen for his help in using TechnoGIN. I wish to express my earnest thanks to Mr. Marcel Lubbers for his help with the linear programming model. I am grateful to Dr. Gerrie van de Ven who helped me to understand dairy systems. I thank Mr. Tang Jianjun for helping in programming the technical coefficient generator for livestock systems and for helping in making the Figure 1.2 for this thesis. I would like to thank Dr. Che Wenbo for helping in making the Figure 4.1 for this thesis. I would like to extend my sincere thanks to Prof. Wang Hai for his valuable suggestions to the selection of my research topic and to the writing of the PhD project proposal. My sincere thanks go to Prof. Zhao Xiaomin for his valuable instructions to my study. I am grateful to Prof. Wang Guanghuo for the fruitful discussions and providing data to me. Special thanks go to Dr. Liu Chunming and his wife Wang Ying, and Dr. Yin Xinyou and his wife Qi Yarong for their hospitality and for organizing so many dinners for me and other Chinese students in Waginingen. My sincere gratitude goes to Sun Jingjing for her encouragement. Jingjing, you are sensible and considerate. I am happy that we are friends. I want express my sincere thanks to Huang Shanwen, Wang Yiding, Zhang Cheng and Li Yuan for their help. I thank my Chinese friends in Wageningen: Bai Yuling, Feng Shuyi, Gao Zhongshan, Huang Guohong, Huang Shanwen, Jia Li, Jiang Wen, Jing Qi, Li Junmin, Li Lingzhi, Li Shipeng, Liang Yehong, Lu Hualiang, Shang Haolv, Tang Jifeng, Wang Caiyun, Wang Guodong, Wang Miqia, Wang Xiaobin, Wang Xuekui, Wang Yiding, Xiao Shenggeng, Xing Meiqing, Yan Liying, Yuan Juanwen, Zhang Lu, Zhang Ningwen, Zhang Ying, Zhao Jianjun, Zhong Lijin and Zhou Shujun. I thank my intimate friend Prof. Ouyang Yangsheng and his wife Yin Chunlan for their support and encouragement. Their son, Ouyang Yi, is also my nominally adoptive son.