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The Bi-Axial Testing System in the Tainan Laboratory of Taiwan's Contents 1 Earthquake Occurrence Probability of Taiwan Faults Over the Next 50 Years Yu‐Wen Chang, Chin‐Hsiung Loh and Wen‐Yu Chien 5 Shallow Shear‐wave Velocity Structures of TSMIP Stations in Taiwan Che‐Min Lin, Chun‐Hsiang Kuo, Jyun‐Yan Huang, Ching‐Chang Si and Kuo‐Liang Wen 9 Overview the Versions of Active Map for Seismic Source Characterization Kuan‐Yu Chen, Yi‐Ping Chen, Ying‐Ping Kuo, Yan‐Ru Chang, Chin‐Tung Cheng, I Ting, Yi‐Rui Lee, Yi‐Rung Chuang, Kuo‐Shih Shao, Bor‐Shouh Huang, Tien‐Shun Lin, Chin‐Hsun Yeh and Kevin Clahan 13 Soil Gas Radon Monitoring in Different Faults and Tatun Volcanic Areas of Northern Taiwan Vivek Walia, Arvind Kumar, Shih‐Jung Lin, Ching‐Chou Fu and Kuo‐Liang Wen 17 Development of Vertical‐to‐Horizontal Response Spectrum Ratio Model for Taiwan Shu‐Hsien Chao, Po‐Shen Lin, Che‐Min Lin, Ching‐Hsiao Kuo, Jyun‐Yan Huang and Chiao‐Chu Hsu 21 A Simplified Procedure to Simulate the Interaction between a Low‐rise Building and Liquefiable Soil Chih‐Chieh Lu, Yu‐Wei Hwang and Jin‐Hung Hwang 25 Higher‐Mode Effects on Seismic Responses of Buildings Jui‐Liang Lin 29 Effects of M3 or PMM Nonlinear Hinges in Pushover Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Buildings Yeong‐Kae Yeh and Te‐Kuang Chow Contents 33 Damage Status and Seismic Assessment of Mid‐to High‐rise Buildings in the 2016 Meinong Earthquake in Taiwan Tirza Paramitha Pamelisa , Fu‐Pei Hsiao and Yu‐Chen Ou 37 An Experimental Study of the In‐Plane Cyclic Behavior of Steel‐Plate Composite Walls with Boundary Elements Chang‐Ching Chang, Yin‐Nan Huang, Yu‐Cheng Cheng and Chi‐An Ho 41 Seismic Health Monitoring of Space RC Frame Structure Using Piezoceramic‐based Sensors Wen-I Liao, Juin-Fu Chai and Tsung-Jen Teng 45 Structural Health Monitoring for Local Damages of RC Walls using Piezoceramic‐Based Sensors under Seismic Loading Wen‐I Liao, Juin‐Fu Chai, Wen‐Yu Jean and Tsung‐Jen Teng 49 Application of Metadata Technology for a Bridge Management System Chun‐Chung Chen, Chia‐Chuan Hsu, Kuang‐Wu Chou, Hsiao‐Hui Hung, Yu‐Chi Sung and Kuo‐Chun Chang, 53 Design Concept and Verification of Temporary Rescue Bridge Using GFRP and Steel Hybrid Structures Fang‐Yao Yeh, Kuo‐Chun Chang and Yu‐Chi Sung 57 Seismic Risk Assessment and Screening of Large Water Pipes in Taiwan Gee‐Yu Liu, Chin‐Hsun Yeh, Lee‐Hui Huang and Hsiang‐Yuan Hung 61 Evaluation of Failure Probability for Emergency Power Supply Systems in Hospitals Chi‐Hao Lin and Cheng‐Tao Yang Contents 65 Seismic Evaluation Methods for Fire‐Protection Sprinkler Piping Systems in Buildings Fan‐Ru Lin, Chang‐Chen Yeh, Juin‐Fu Chai and Kuo‐Chun Chang 69 Study on Behavior of Seismic Bracing Attachment for Fire Protection Sprinkler Piping System Wei‐Hung Hsu, Juin‐Fu Chai, Fan‐Ru Lin, Zen‐Yu Lin, Jian‐Xiang Wang, Wen‐I Liao and Shu‐Yu Kao 73 An Experimental Study of a Residual Heat Removal Piping System in an NPP Zih‐Yu Lai, Juin‐Fu Chai, Fan‐Ru Lin, Wen‐Fang Wu and Yin‐Nan Huang 77 Numerical Modelling and Experimental Validation of the Flange Joint of a Piping System in Numerical Power Plants Juin‐Fu Chai, Fan‐Ru Lin, Zih‐Yu Lai and Wen‐Fang Wu 81 Experimental and Analytical Study on Multiaxial Hysteresis Behavior of Lead Rubber Bearings Wang‐Chuen Lin, Shiang‐Jung Wang, Jenn‐Shin Hwang, Cho‐Yen Yang and Chung‐Han Yu 85 The Bi‐Axial Testing System in Tainan Laboratory of Taiwan’s National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering Te‐Hung Lin, Ker‐Chun Lin and Keh‐Chyuan Tsai 89 Online Model Updating with the Gradient‐based Parameter Identification Method for Advanced Hybrid Simulations Ming‐Chieh Chuang 93 Cloudization of An In‐house Discrete Element Simulation Platform Wei‐Tze Chang Earthquake Occurrence Probability of Taiwan Faults Over the Next 50 Years Yu-Wen Chang 1, Chin-Hsiung Loh2 and Wen-Yu Chien3 張毓文 1、羅俊雄 2、簡文郁 3 Abstract Time-dependent probability model are considered because studies of paleoseismic records on well-studied faults in Taiwan have found them to be technically defensible characterizations of the timing of earthquakes. Although time-independent earthquake occurrence behavior characterization requires only an assessment of the mean recurrence interval (Tr) for a given magnitude, this study considers the elapsed time since the previous earthquake (Te) in time- dependent probability model for the 25 major faults in Taiwan. For faults with a long paleoseismic record and a documented most recent event, time-dependence can be incorporated into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using an alternative models to account for the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics from the present time up to a particular lifetime (such as for the Chelungpu fault). The conditional probability in the next subsequent time windows (Tp) corresponds to a renewal model with the coefficient of variation of the recurrence interval. The Taiwan earthquake probability map for the 25 major faults in the 50-year periods from 2017 to 2067 is developed in this study. Keywords: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, Time-dependent Model, Renewal, Poisson, Recurrence Interval Introduction used in the Poisson process. It is important to properly consider the variability in recurrence rates caused by According to the principles of probabilistic multiple-segment ruptures that change from event to seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), technically event due to fault interaction. defensible models of fault behavior must be included in the analysis. The model most commonly used in the The frequency of large earthquake occurrence PSHA for earthquake occurrence, the Poisson process, forms the basis for seismic hazard assessments, while considers that earthquakes occur randomly in time the concept of a stress-driven earthquake renewal when viewed over a long interval; it belongs to the inspires time-dependent earthquake probability memory-less assumptions in which time, size and calculations. In fact, in recent years, the time location of preceding events are independent. dependent occurrence model has been applied increasingly as part of PSHA (e.g., González et al., In reality, there is increasing evidence showing 2006; Chang et al., 2007; Akinci et al., 2010; Field et that the behavior of earthquake occurrence, which is al., 2015). The time-dependent hazard analysis in the related to the individual fault source, follows an San Francisco Bay region using the probability models inherent time model. Based on the observation that for the major Bay Area faults was considered by the during repeated rupture episodes occurring on the U.S. Geological Survey’s Working Group on the individual fault (or fault system), some characteristics California Earthquake Probabilities study (WGCEP, remain approximately constant over a large timescale; 2003). It performed time-dependent probability the rupture characterization of the earthquake calculations for the next 30 years using historic occurrence behavior does not match the assumption earthquake data from the segmentations of active 1 Associate Researcher, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering 2 Professor, National Taiwan University, Department of Civil Engineering 3 Research Fellow, National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering 1 faults. model. Renewal models were applied to different distributions which allow the probability of fault occurrence to increase with respect to the elapsed time Paleoseismicity Data and Renewal Model (Te) since the occurrence of the last event with the subsequent time window (T ) year. Several typical From the report on the paleoearthquake study on p probability distributions for describing earthquake the Chelungpu fault, the intervals in the past 2 ka (kilo- recurrence intervals include the exponential (Poisson), years ago) range from about 700 years to 100 years and lognormal, Weibull, gamma, or Brownian Passage are related to coefficient of variation (COV) = 0.356. Time (BPT) (Matthews et al., 20020). The BPT In addition, COV is a key parameter in time-varying distribution is based on a simple physical earthquake probability estimates, particularly the standard cycle model and has highly desirable statistical deviation of recurrence intervals for a given fault properties for describing earthquake recurrence system between large events. In the statistical analyses, statistics. This distribution has been widely used in the QQ plot displays a quantile-quantile plot of two California and Japan (ERC, 2005; Field et al., 2015), observed data samples and model values. If the among other studies. samples are obtained from the same distribution, the plot will be linear or close to 1:1. Based on these paleoearthquake data from the Chelungpu Fault, the Conditional Probability in Tp-year QQ plots of the five distribution models show that the four renewal models have the best performance for Let f () denote a probability density function of describing the characteristic behavior compared to the the recurrence interval of the fault rupture that causes exponential (Poisson) model, as illustrated in Fig. 1. In the earthquake. In the reliability, the probability of the the plot, the sample data is displayed with the symbol event occurring at time t is based on a probability “+” and the red line is a robust linear fit of the order density distribution f(t) and a cumulative distribution statistic of the two samples. In the test, the exponential function F(t) for the continuous random variable of T. (Poisson) model result indicates that the rupture The survivor function R(t) simply indicates the episode behaviour for specific faults cannot probability that the event of interest characterized by unilaterally be described by a constant occurrence rate. cumulative distribution function (CDF) F(t) has not Therefore, the WGCEP (2003) has considered the occurred by duration t, as follows weighting for the time-independent and time- dependent models to build the hazard map. The data Rt() P T t 1 Ft () (1) show good agreement with the assumed probability distribution function, which indicates that the The conditional probability of a failure in the time uncertainty of the time investigation for the interval from t to t +Δt given that the fault has survived paleoearthquake occurrence is consistent with a COV to the time is of 0.35 to 0.5.
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