The 22Nd Century at First Light: Envisioning Life in the Year 2100

A special report by members and friends of the World Future Society

Introduction submit forecasts, scenarios, wild cards, dreams, and nightmares about the earth, humanity, governance, A child born today will only be 88 years old in the commerce, science and technology, and more. year 2100. So, what do we see in this “first light” view over the The next 88 years may see changes that come expo- next horizon? A fuzzy and inaccurate picture, no doubt, nentially faster than the previous 88 years. What new but also an earnest attempt to shake out our futuring inventions will come out of nowhere and change instruments and begin improving them. To build a bet- everything? What will our families look like? How will ter future for the generations who are depending on us, we govern ourselves? What new crimes or other threats we’ll need the best tools we can develop. It’s time to loom ahead? Will we be happy? How? start thinking and caring about the twenty-second cen- THE FUTURIST invited WFS members and friends to tury now. —THE EDITORS

© EMRAH TURUDU / ISTOCKPHOTO Timeline Questions 34 Major Transformations to 2100: Highlights from the TechCast 51 Ten Big Questions for 2100, Michael Marien Project, Laura B. Huhn and William Halal 54 On Being Human: Questioning Ourselves, David Brin Forecasts Scenarios 36 Where the Wild Things Are Not, Brenda Cooper 34 Looking Back: The Wonders We Didn’t Expect, Paul Saffo 37 Keys to Future Energy Prosperity, Ozzie Zehner 36 When the Storms Came, Richard David Hames 39 Bio Age 2100, Olli Hietanen and Marko Ahvenainen 38 Energy and Living Well, Paul Bristow 40 Healthy Aging in the 22nd Century, Marta M. Keane 40 Paradise Found: No Aging, No Pensions, Jouni J. Särkijärvi 43 Will We Still Have Money in 2100? Stephen Aguilar-Millan 42 Beyond Transhumanism, Gene Stephens 43 Slums: A Catalyst Bed for Poverty Eradication, Eric Meade 44 Meaning for Miranda, Robert Moran 45 From Communication to Transmission, Manjul Rathee 46 Southern Africa Takes Center Stage, Michael Lee 45 Religious Belief in 2100, Gina A. Bellofatto 48 Life and Love in the Pod, Bart Main 47 Lanes in the Sky, Davidson Barlett 50 Automated Government, Peter Denning 47 The Local–Global Duality, Joshua Loughman 52 Geonautics, Gereon Klein 49 Game Changers for the Next Century, Arthur Shostak 54 2099: Headlines Warn of Global Cooling, Tsvi Bisk Tools 55 Reunion: A Civil War Fable, Cynthia G. Wagner 50 Scenarios and Long-Term Thinking, House of Futures (Gitte Larsen, Søren Steen Olsen, and Steen Svendsen) 41 About the Authors

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 33 Timeline

Major Transformations to 2100: Highlights from the TechCast Project

By Laura B. Huhn and William Halal

Will the year 2100 bring disaster or salvation? A global population that exceeds food supply and ex- hausts planetary resources? Ecological collapse and Scenario severe climate change? Or will we experience a unified world heralding an unprecedented Age of Global Consciousness? Looking Back: The Wonders We Didn’t Expect TechCast (www.TechCast.org) draws on its knowledge base of forecasts pooling empirical trend data By Paul Saffo and the knowledge of more than 100 experts to examine the big transformations ahead. Lifestyles, families, homes, and other aspects of life are likely to It has been a wild ride of a century change because the forces of nature, technology, de- full of expected wonders. Molecular mographics, and economics are transforming the manufacturing became a reality well world dramatically. Here is a macro-forecast that summarizes the 70 stra- before 2050, turning all sorts of once- tegic breakthroughs that offer an outline of how the valuable materials into commodities, foundations of society are likely to evolve over the re- and yes, we even eventually got flying mainder of this century. cars. 2015: Next Economic Upcycle But the century also came with a rich harvest of utterly unexpected sur- Our timeline begins around 2015, when the following technological advancements are expected to start the prises and the stubborn persistence of next 35-year economic upcycle: some things we thought had been left • E-Commerce. Internet use explodes worldwide, behind in the twentieth century. Here producing trillions of dollars in revenue. are a few of the outcomes you never • Global Access. About 50% of the world population guessed back in 2012: will have Internet access. • Globalization. At today’s growth rates, we’ll halve • Ownership is so twentieth century. poverty by 2015. My generation looks back with nostalgia • Green Business. Thirty percent of corporations are on a time when we actually owned things. likely to practice environmental management, leading Compared to 2012, we have access to an to a $10 trillion–$20 trillion green industry at the end of astounding bounty of goods and ser- the decade. vices, but we don’t really “buy” things • TeleMedicine. Online records, videoconferences with your doctor, and other electronic practices will im- anymore because everything comes with prove medical care and reduce escalating costs. strings (and license agreements) at- • TeleWork. Globally, 1 billion people were mobile tached. In much the same way that you workers in 2010. By 2015, that number should increase subscribed to software and e-books, we to 1.3 billion. now “subscribe” to physical objects. • Space Commercialism/Tourism. Space trips for tourists and visits to low-Earth orbit are likely to pro- • Longevity arrived, but with limits duce a boom in commercial space. and for a price. Life extension remains a work in progress. Sure, 100 is the new 2015–2020: Global MegaCrisis 60, but 130-year-olds remain a curios- From 2015 through 2020, a doubling of global GDP ity. The debate still rages over whether will cause the Global MegaCrisis to become intolerable, or not there is a hard-wired limit in the with the planet teetering on environmental collapse (see THE FUTURIST, May-June 2011). Here are Tech- human organism. In the meantime, lon- Cast’s four scenarios: gevity ain’t cheap, and the cost of im- • Decline to Disaster (25% probability): World fails to react, resulting in catastrophic natural and economic calamities. Possible loss of civilization. • Muddling Down (35% probability): World reacts

34 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org only partially, so ecological damage, increased poverty, tions to a responsible global order. and conflict create major declines in life. • Muddling Up (25% probability): World reacts in 2020: High-Tech Era time out of need and high-tech capabilities; widespread Assuming the world survives reasonably well (Mud- disaster averted, although many problems remain. dling Up), major breakthroughs are likely to introduce • Rise to Maturity (15% probability): World transi- a High-Tech Era:

Scenario

Looking Back: The Wonders We Didn’t Expect

By Paul Saffo

less AIs haunting the global noosphere. • Discovery has deepened mystery. I can’t even begin to catalog all that has been discovered in the last century, but with our new knowledge has come a new appreciation of just how vast and mysterious the universe is. J. B. S. Hal- dane got it right way back in 1927 when he observed that “the Universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.” The astonishing consequence has been a religious resurgence. In 2020, science’s relentless explanatory logic had © IGOR DEMCHENKOV / ISTOCKPHOTO believers on the run, but in the decades that followed, it became clear that an ever mortality rises exponentially as individu- nearby neighbors. Life has turned up stranger, more capacious universe had als enter their second century. everywhere we look, with the implication ample room for the divine, the spiritual, The result is a new societal divide that life just wants to happen no matter the mystical, and the mysterious. between the chronological haves and how improbable the environment. The result has been a repeat of Jas- have-nots: The wealthy “old turtles” We also stopped counting Earthlike per’s Axial Age on a smaller scale, as move at a stately pace, making long- planet discoveries early in the twenty- new belief systems have proliferated. term plans, while the “may-fly” poor first century, but astoundingly, we still Many of your late-twentieth-century die out decades earlier. It has created have no clear evidence of ETs—extrater- cults are all respectable and spruced vexing issues around the distribution restrial life forms that we can communi- up, and Atheism itself has become a of wealth and power. cate with—despite a century of search- mainstream faith, complete with its • Life everywhere, but where’s ET? ing. Perhaps the answer to Fermi’s own rituals. It all seems a bit less than A century’s worth of space exploration question (“Where are they?”) might be rational, but like Bohr’s horseshoe (“I has turned up all sorts of weird life an existentially unnerving realization am told that it will bring good luck forms. The extremophiles found in that we are terribly, profoundly alone. whether or not I believe in it”), it gives Earth’s hellish niches back around 2000 This could, of course, change us comfort as we look out over the are prosaic compared to the astounding tomorrow, but in the meantime, we can giddying vastness that is the frontier of range of what constitutes life on our at least talk to our robots and the count- the twenty-second century.

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 35 • Smart and Green Transportation: e.g., intelligent 2070–2100: Beyond Earth cars, high-speed trains. • Deep Space: Contact is made; star travel becomes • Climate Control, Alternative Energy. possible. • Mastery of Life: e.g., personal medicine, organ re- • Unified World Systems: Humanity achieves Type I placement, cancer cure. Civilization (mastery over most forms of planetary • Second-Generation Information Technology, e.g., energy). “good” artificial intelligence, automated routine knowledge, robots, infinite computing power. 2030–2050: Mature World Order Forecasts A Mature World Order evolves beyond knowledge to an Age of Global Consciousness: Where the Wild Things Are Not • Space: exploration and colonization of the Moon, Mars. By Brenda Cooper • Advanced Energy: Fusion energy becomes viable. • Life Extension: Average human life span reaches 100 years. In the Western creation story, the first man and • Expanded Consciousness: e.g., general AI, woman are given a task: to care for a garden and the thought power, neurotechnology. Humans become al- beasts and animals within it. By 2100, mankind will be most godlike. living in a garden the size of the world. Species will

Scenario

When the Storms Came

By Richard David Hames

Hi. I’m Daeng, an emeritus bio into hugging or in- equivalents, though cultural ethicist. Each month I work my timacy, which I they look and taste allocated 10 hours for the FinanceLab miss. authentic enough. hubbed here in Moscow, a “resilient” I grow my own Being born of a city with a populace approaching food using perma Thai mother and an 21 million. culture techniques Australian father, I FinanceLab has managed all non that I learned from grew up in what peer-to-peer transactions and flows for Mum after Dad © BENJAMIN GOODE / ISTOCKPHOTO seemed to me at our region since the global banking died. At least I can be sure my diet the time to be the most idyllic cosmo- meltdown mid-century. My job is cool, doesn’t contain unwanted additives, politan city in the world. Bangkok is although I would love to meet more which is a luxury few people can afford under water now, of course, and most people and listen to their stories, rather these days. I value my health and my of the tropics are just too hot to in- than interact with them via my web- fitness. Besides, tending to my small habit. Singapore still endures, but who screen. wall bioshelter is very gratifying. would want to live in such a tightly Because of the extreme heat, it’s After all these years, I still occasion- gated, artificial enclave? I need to feel simply too dangerous to venture out ally yearn for some grilled chicken or a free, to breathe fresh air, even if my much. My main companion is DAO. As pork green curry—what Asian person movements are somewhat constrained. a fifth-generation personalized clone, would not? But after the great conta- I often wonder what might have hap- DAO is able to access the totality of gion of 2038, which killed over 2 billion pened had the scientists’ warnings documented human knowledge, an- people in a matter of weeks, most meat about climate change been heeded. But swer any question I pose, and tend to production in Greater Europe was when the storms came, it was far too all my requests. But she’s not really banned. I really don’t fancy the artificial late. It all happened so quickly. Wealthy

36 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org live or die by our hand and our choices, and, ulti- By 2100, most of the developed world will be man- mately, so will we. aged. We will know how many large mammals live in Some people might claim that we are already there. I almost every open space. It is likely that tiny sensors disagree. There are many wild places today, but climate will report out on moths and moss and microclimates, change and population growth are claiming them, and then initiate or suggest action to humans caring for changing them, and in some cases erasing them. With the complex dependencies of species. work, better use of information technology in the form As the twenty-second century begins, our 88-year- of sensing, tracking, and artificial intelligence can help old may work as a caretaker for natural habitat. Per- us create a sustainable path to a world full of garden. haps she learned eco-care skills in the community-ser- One of the programs that my city is most proud of is vice portion of her education when she was 16 (in called Green Kirkland, where people show up in droves 2028), and continued to leverage these skills for low- to weed the parks, pulling invasive species and planting paying temporary jobs that supported a year of travel natives. Staff and volunteers manage the watersheds through Asia or Australia. Maybe she returned to this and the salmon habitat. We clean the stormwater. work for summers until she had children, and then On a bigger scale, dam releases are being used to again in the first few years of retirement, and now she manage the amount of silt in the Colorado River to pro- has become a senior volunteer in the community park. tect the humpback chub. In 2100, 88-year-olds may not have seen an unex- Reprehensible industrial-level habitat destruction pected waterfall or wolf for some time. They have and laudable habitat restoration projects can be found hunted for birds they knew were in a specific managed from China to Australia to Canada. ecosystem and competed to get the best pictures. They have helped release once-extinct species into newly prepared habitats. They can count on one hand the number of times they have been completely alone, unable to even see another human being. Scenario While most people in 2100 may not have unexpected en- counters with wildness daily or even often, the highly paid professionals working on ecosystem preservation could be When the Storms Came plagued with such surprises. As humans try to tend a complex biosphere, unintended consequences will abound. By Richard David Hames Even in 2100, humans are unlikely to be as capable as nature is when it comes to managing evolution. They will depend heavily on artificial intelligences to help, people simply moved. The poor suf- but the process still requires human intervention. Natu- fered. So many people died from lack ral evolution will compete with human-induced evolution. All urban ecosystems will be managed, and most of water, disease, or starvation—al- rural ones will at least be monitored. though we are still refused access to One of the ethical discussions of the day will be the precise figures. about how to choose between the wild and the made, After many relationships, like many how to best tend the garden called Earth. people of my generation, I now live alone—the result of us being encouraged not to parent children or to Keys to Future Energy Prosperity make too many friends on iWeb for By Ozzie Zehner fear of identity theft. Not that I mind. I feel no attachment or loyalty to this place. By 2100, one aspect of our world will have become apparent: While populations and economies can grow And so today, as I record this mes- exponentially, the planet’s resources cannot. Neverthe- sage for Jez—my only child, whom less, as this simple realization unravels over coming I’ve never met—I celebrate my 88th decades, it will not be plainly visible. It will manifest in birthday. It is Saturday, June 12. The less-obvious ways. year is 2100. My geneticist tells me to The finitude of the Earth will present itself in terms expect death 11 years from now. I am of supply constraints, international conflict, disease, water shortages, unemployment, and most of all eco- ready. I have seen and lived through so nomic volatility. much. As traditional fuels stretch thin, nations will shift to low-grade coal and shale oil to fuel their economic activity. As heating costs rise, the world’s forests will un- derstandably become an irresistible resource to exploit for fuel. The natural gas and petroleum-based fertiliz-

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 37 ers that cultivated the green revolution will become too by 2100, few alive will have any recollection of such an expensive for many of the world’s farmers at the same era. Residents of 2100 will therefore find little utility in time that crops for biofuels will be in highest demand. the brand of economic thinking that their elders be- The world’s poor and disenfranchised will bear the queathed them. brunt of these transitional pains. Nations may institute Some alternative energy schemes will have failed to food export bans as they did following the 2008 and 2011 live up to the wide-eyed dreams that previous genera- food price shocks. Others may use food aid as a weapon, tions had envisioned. By 2100, it will have become ap- as Henry Kissinger once suggested the United States parent that early technologies were largely reliant on might do. As the costs to exhume fossil fuels rise, the in- fossil fuels as well as the economic activity that accom- visible hand of the market will go right for our throats. panied cheap energy. Engineers will discover that, In 2100, people will still be traveling to and from while wind and sunlight are renewable, turbines and work, celebrating birthdays, trying new restaurants, solar cells are not. and going on vacations. They’ll just be doing it all with Landfills will house millions of tons of defunct solar a lot less energy. panel waste, leaking heavy metals into groundwater Not only will the age of cheap fossil fuels have ended supplies. But a larger concern will reign: the enduring

Scenario

Energy and Living Well

By Paul Bristow

Life in the year 2100 is all about en- ally live anywhere ferent jobs, both ergy. No, that’s no longer true. It’s they liked while to increase per- about living well. working some- sonal resilience We had to completely reinvent civili- where else. and because it’s zation in the face of fossil-fuel short- With no need to fun! ages and increasing climate change. travel for meet- For example, Permaculture become the basis of our ings, commuting m a n u f a c t u r i n g new sustainable civilization. vanished like a bad was relocalized. Housing looks familiar, if a little fat- dream. Of course, The advent of ter with all the insulation that was the need for real mass 3-D printing added. The retrofit passivhaus concept human contact and cheap CNC went global as energy prices rose. d i d n ’ t . M o s t (computer numer- These days, excess energy is very ex- towns, villages, ical control) meant pensive, but for most people it just and districts have that the difficulty © PABLO DEMETRIO SCAPINACHIS ARMSTRONG / ISTOCKPHOTO doesn’t matter. Most communities are communal working of building some- locally self-sufficient. Everyone grows areas, paid for out of local taxes in lo- thing went away. At the same time, the food using permaculture principles. cal currencies, which let you work to- increasing costs of transport forced the Agricultural monoculture became gether with your friends and neighbors. use of local materials. There are local deeply unfashionable during the great These mix/meet spaces are incredibly solar-powered remanufacturing plants GM disease outbreaks of the 2030s. creative. next to what used to be called waste During the chaos, we were smart So business continues. Once the dumps. enough to keep the Internet going. Giv- 99% movement really got going, the Now, the idea of big warehouses of ing up broadcast television meant wire- 1% left. These days, open-source finished goods—none of which quite less broadband really took off. That, cooperatives have mostly replaced cap- does what you want—seems quaint. combined with holographic conferenc- italism, at least on-planet. In practice, This is the case for all but the highest ing, meant that people finally could re- most people run three or four very dif- technology products, which are still

38 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org burdens of nuclear activities. transparency, citizen governance, walkable communities, In 2100, energy firms will still be grappling with how strong civic organizations, and so on. These are impor- best to store nuclear waste and clean up nuclear con- tant attributes for any era. But in an age of tight energy, tamination. People will not identify nuclear contamina- they will become vital. tion in terms of “accidents,” as we do today. They will instead view nuclear activities as highly risky under- takings that are bound to expel radiation into human Bio Age 2100 communities over time. Additionally, plenty of en- riched fuel, radioactive waste, and nuclear byproducts By Olli Hietanen and Marko Ahvenainen will shift hands as nation-states crack apart and recon- figure into new political establishments. Technological developments will influence the 2100 en- Technological change has progressed at a rapid pace. ergy landscape, but they won’t be the primary force. Within a few decades, the world has become virtual Future energy prosperity will actually hinge on social while we have started to apply biotechnology and and political fundamentals: human rights, health care, nanotechnology. Next, we will see how mobile technology is breaking out of computers and mobile phones, with the same technology being applied to all sorts of everyday objects: furniture, household appliances, buildings, cloth- Scenario ing, packaging, cars, etc. The Internet is thus evolving into “Ubinet”—an om- nipresent cloud service—and we are entering a “hybrid Energy and Living Well economy” where customers are participating through social media in the design, manufacture, and crowd By Paul Bristow funding of products (co-production, crowdsourcing, cloud computing, and augmented reality). At the same time, the focus of the world economy mass assembled and transported by has shifted to Asia and to the emerging economies. In sailing ship and cargo zeppelin. People addition, we have experienced financial crises, which have become the rule rather than the exception. are relaxed enough that, if something The main phenomenon of the modern world is the takes 10 weeks to arrive, they don’t accelerating speed of change. freak out. However, above all, the current major concern of the Global populations are now divided future is the depletion of natural resources. This, com- 50/50 city and country dwellers. Re- bined with the pollution of the environment, put gional government was the only scale sustainability technologies (technologies of scarcity) at the heart of competitiveness to generate solutions to that actually worked for fighting cli- the major problems of mankind and to contribute to the mate change; national governments well-being of all. became sources of embarrassment The challenge is not only in technology and business first, and then irrelevant. We still have models, but there is also a need for a new kind of non- conflicts, but mostly when some local linear innovation system, as well as a new philosophy of technology. The main reason to develop technology politician promises a planet-harming is no longer to conquer nature, but to protect nature shortsighted populist fix. The UN secu- against humans. rity force soon takes care of these. By According to Nikolai Kondratieff, an economic up- the way, the UN is still called that, even swing (long cycle) begins with a new technological in- though it’s really the United “cities and novation, whose effect eventually dies out (after 50–70 regions.” years), whereby the economy is plunged into recession. This continues until a new innovation in turn triggers a We never did get fusion power work- new wave of economic growth. ing, but it doesn’t matter anymore. Re- Significant breakthroughs to date have been, for ex- gional weather control by the power ample, the steam engine, railways, electricity, chemi- cooperatives ensures that the days are cals, radio, TV, computers, and mobile phones. Recent sunny for power and pleasure, with years have seen discussion of the Sixth Kondratieff Cy- cle (2010–2050), which differs from the Fifth because of wind and rain overnight for power and the increasingly rising prices of raw materials and en- plants. Life is good. ergy. It will no longer be possible with present-day technology to lower those prices. One possible path of sustainable growth is the emer- gence of the Bio Age (similar to the Iron, Stone, and

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 39 Bronze ages), in which everything that can possibly be To be born in 2012 and only be 88 years old in 2100 made from biomaterials will be. will probably mean middle age rather than elder- The forest and agriculture sectors are developing into hood. Elders will be those who have lived triple-digit a bio-economy, which can use any bio raw material to years and have been through several careers and manufacture anything: gas, fluid, fiber, mass, mole- cycles of education, career, and leisure. These elders cules, energy. Artificial meat will grow in the cow-byres will have exponentially more knowledge and experi- of the future, mobile phones will be compostable, and ence, and they will continue to be contributing to many kinds of consumer goods (such as chairs, mobile society. Technology will be a key element allowing phones, and clothes) will be printed from biomaterials individuals to age with more independence and and grown from seeds and stem cells. more choice. All of these technologies and changes hold impor- Here, we examine each component of health (as de- tance similar to the invention of the steam engine. They fined by the World Health Organization) and how each have brought and will continue to bring profound will be manifested in 2100. changes to our economy, our way of life, and even our • Physical health. People’s physical health will be cultural history. monitored daily in their homes. The smart home will be outfitted with readers to take vital signs and send them directly to a medical professional to review, and Healthy Aging in the 22nd Century provide feedback on any medications or supplements that need to be altered that day. Rather than prescrip- By Marta M. Keane tions as we have known them, medications will all be personalized to individuals’ DNA, keeping all healthier for longer. What will the term elder mean in the future? And at what age will someone be considered an elder in 2100? continued on page 42

Scenario

Paradise Found: No Aging, No Pensions

By Jouni J. Särkijärvi

I’m now 88, but it is something energy than we can ever think of using, completely different from what it used and the Earth is practically a closed to be in your days. This is probably the system. We only have to reorganize biggest change: We don’t have to get these 15-billion-year-old atoms to suit old and die. whatever we need. Already when I was born, the con- We have no “pension age,” nor do cept of rejuvenation was understood in © OLEG PRIKHODKO / ISTOCKPHOTO we have pensions. On the other hand, theory: We knew what needs to be lation explosion of your time intoler there are no 9-to-5 jobs, either. You do done at the cell level. It took some time able, so what happens when people not need human labor for what can be to make it happen also in practice. stop both dying and losing their fertil- programmed. All our contributions Now, to stay young is actually cheaper ity? have something to do with creativity. than to get old. The problem used to be that people There are still scientists, artists, archi- Accidents do still happen, but re- squandered resources and there was tects, and chefs. growing organs was perfected already not enough food. Actually, there would Professional sports, alas, lost their in the 2050s. It’s a self-service society have been enough food if people had appeal when the enhanced athletes up to the finish line. It is up to you to had money for it. Both these problems conquered the field. shuffle off your own mortal coil. were expressions of primitive technol- The politicians also welcomed lon- You may have considered the popu- ogy. The Sun provides us with more gevity with open arms. You can tax it.

40 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org William E. Halal is professor emeritus of ForesightBooks.org. He ponders the future About the Authors management, technology, and innovation at and grows his garden in LaFayette, New George Washington University and is presi- York. He can be contacted at mmarien@ Stephen Aguilar-Millan is director of dent of TechCast LLC (www.TechCast.org), twcny.rr.com. research at The European Futures Obser- a virtual think tank tracking the technology vatory, www.eufo.org. He is also a member revolution. Eric Meade is senior futurist and vice presi- of the World Future Society’s Global Advi- dent of the Institute for Alternative Futures sory Council and a frequent speaker at Richard David Hames is founding director in Alexandria, Virginia. Web site www WFS conferences. of the Asian Foresight Institute in Bangkok .altfutures.org. and the author of The Five Literacies of Marko Ahvenainen is a researcher with the Global Leadership. Web site www.richard- Robert Moran is an insight-driven strategist Finland Futures Research Centre. E-mail hames.com. at the Brunswick Group in Washington, [email protected]. D.C., focusing on industry futures, market Olli Hietanen is head of development at the and opinion research, and communications Davidson Barlett is a licensed Realtor with Finland Futures Research Centre and a strategy. Web site www.futureofinsight.com. Excellent Real Estate Group in Miami, spe- board member of the Finnish Society for cializing in mobile home and RV parks. Futures Studies. E-mail [email protected]. Manjul Rathee is a sustainable communications designer currently based in London. Gina Bellofatto is a research associate at House of Futures (Gitte Larsen, Søren She has been involved in the design indus- the Center for the Study of Global Christian- Steen Olsen, and Steen Svendsen) is a try for more than seven years, working for ity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary private, nonprofit association based in organizations such as BBC, Arena Maga- in South Hamilton, Massachusetts, and a Copenhagen, Denmark. HOF has experts zine, and Oliver Wyman and for clients such doctoral student studying world religions within futurism, leadership, strategy, consul- as British Airways, Royal Bank of Scotland, and international religious demography at tancy, communication, design, policy devel- and No More Landmines Trust. Web site Boston University’s School of Theology. opment, storytelling, art, spirituality, ancient www.manjulrathee.com. wisdom, mediation, coaching, and perfor- Tsvi Bisk is director of the Center for Stra- mance. This essay draws from Issues 2: Paul Saffo is a forecaster with more than tegic Futurist Thinking and THE FUTURIST’s This Way, Please! Preferred Futures 2112 two decades of experience exploring the contributing editor for Strategic Thinking. published by House of Futures (April 2012), dynamics of large-scale, long-term change. E‑mail [email protected]. www.houseoffutures.dk. He is managing director of foresight at Dis- cern Analytics, www.discern.com. David Brin is a scientist, highly sought-after Laura B. Huhn is a business strategy con- technology speaker, and award-winning au- sultant and has served as the field editor for Jouni J. Särkijärvi is an architect, former thor. His new novel, Existence (Tor Books, Energy and Environment for TechCast director general of Finland’s Ministry of the 2012), explores the hundred pitfalls that lie (www.TechCast.org), for which she is cur- Environment, and former member of the between us and success as an interstellar rently reporting on emerging tech issues Parliament of Finland. E-mail jouni.sarkijarvi species. and challenges. @pp.inet.fi.

Paul Bristow is a founder of Transition Marta M. Keane is president of The Strate- Arthur B. Shostak is emeritus professor of Ferney-Voltaire, using community-based gies Group. She is a health-care manage- sociology at Drexel University and THE scenario planning, permaculture, and ment consultant focusing on aging and well- FUTURIST’s contributing editor for Utopian crowd-sourced ingenuity at the border of ness. E-mail [email protected]. Thought. He is currently writing Touring France and Switzerland. He is also a found- Tomorrow Today, a guidebook to sites that ing member of Post Tenebras Lab, the Gereon Klein is managing director of the preview options for future-shaping acts. He hackerspace in Geneva. In his day job, he institute Facilitation for Change in Germany. can be reached at arthurshostak@gmail predicts the near-term future in the digital Web site www.gereonklein.de. .com. media industry. He’d prefer to live in this outlined scenario. E-mail paul@paulbristow Michael Lee is founder and chairman of the Gene Stephens is Distinguished Professor .net. Southern African Chapter of the World Emeritus, University of South Carolina. He Future Society (www.wfs-sa.com). He is continues to teach and write about the Brenda Cooper is the author of several sci- CEO of ATMIA (www.atmia.com), a global future, specializing in public safety. He is ence-fiction novels. Her next release is The trade association with more than 2,600 also THE FUTURIST’s Criminal Justice Creative Fire (Pyr, November 2012). She is members in 60 countries. His forthcoming contributing editor and a consulting futurist. also the CIO of the city of Kirkland, Wash- book, Knowing our Future, will be published He can be reached at stephens-gene@ ington. Web site www.brenda-cooper.com. November 2012 in the UK. sc.rr.com.

Peter J. Denning is Distinguished Profes- Joshua Loughman is a professional sys- Cynthia G. Wagner is editor of THE sor of Computer Science and director of the tems engineer in the aerospace and de- FUTURIST. E‑mail [email protected]. Cebrowski Institute for information innova- fense industry in Chandler, Arizona. tion at the Naval Postgraduate School in Ozzie Zehner is a visiting scholar at the Monterey, California. He is editor in chief of Bart Main is a child psychiatrist and very Science, Technology, & Society Center, Uni- ACM Ubiquity, and is a past president of long-standing sci-fi aficionado focused on versity of California, Berkeley. He is the au- ACM. E-mail [email protected]. This essay the well-being of our great-grandchildren. thor of Green Illusions: The Dirty Secrets of draws from his series, “Ancath Chronicles,” Clean Energy and the Future of Environ- which is available at http://denninginstitute. Michael Marien is the former editor of the mentalism (University of Nebraska Press, com/pjd/chronicles2011.pdf. World Future Society’s Future Survey 2012). Web site www.GreenIllusions.org. (1979-2008) and now director of Global-

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 41 Scenario

Beyond Transhumanism

By Gene Stephens

5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Happy 2100! salist—getting all would inherit the Now it’s really time to reflect and try traces of human E a r t h , b u t w e to decide what’s next for me. I’m out of the equa- didn’t realize it young—88 in a few months—but still tion. If I’m going w o u l d b e o u r it never hurts to take stock, especially to exist another choice to hasten in this “Brave New World.” I’ve heard thousand years or the day by im- that phrase somewhere before. Any- so, I’ve got to get planting every hot way, it’s really true today. Who would with the program. new neurochip into have thought I’d be one of the few pre- I’ve wasted way our bodies until we dominantly humans left on Earth? too much time became more ro- Old Ray Kurzweil may have sounded fighting the inevi bot than human. like a prophet a century ago, but he table. What good I rue the day I was so far off. He believed there’d be are civil liberties took that first only 20,000 years of progress in the and species pride © VOLODYMYR GRINKO / ISTOCKPHOTO step—acquiring twenty-first century. It’s been more like if your species is extinct? 20 languages instantly in just one a million years of progress. It sure I’m still in good standing with the cheap nanochip. From there, it was a floored me; in fact, it left me so far be- underground, but there are only a few slippery slope to adding chips that in- hind, my kind is pretty much irrelevant. hundred of us left worldwide. Since creased lower body strength, chips that All my friends have become chime- many in the group have turned down stored quadrillions of data bits with ras or cyborgs or even robots. Most the latest life-prolonging technology, nanospeed retrieval; a chip here, a chip have actually opted for trans- humanity is truly a dying breed. We there, everywhere a new chip. humanism, or that new term, univer- were warned that the smart machines Now I’ve got to make some deci-

continued from page 40 and family dynamics. It will be unlikely that there will be marriages that will last 100 years, so there Elders will be able to live in their own homes lon- will be multiple groupings of families that will have ger. With driverless cars, limitations on transportation a fresh approach to embracing each addition to the will be a thing of the past. And the smart home will family and expanding the definition of the extended adapt to people’s changing needs so that they will not family. need to move from their current home to maintain a • Spiritual health. Views of a “divine power” will safe environment. be transformed by advances in science and techno- • Social-emotional health. As elders continue to logical power. As scientific breakthroughs increase work longer and cycle through more periods of lei- longevity, the fear of mortality and what follows sure during their lifetimes, they will have more will disappear. Spiritual practices and beliefs will friends and engage in more activities that will allow become more individualized; many elders, for in- them to stay involved. Twenty-second-century el- stance, will continue to be concerned for the envi- ders will see their generation continue to be in- ronment, and in so doing, get back in touch with na- volved in social-action projects, coming together for ture and the Earth. the specific project and meeting new people, and • Intellectual health. Elders will be honored for continuing some relationships and letting others their knowledge and experience. The many cycles end with the project. of work and relationships will enrich their lives As with work, there will be cycles with marriage and be an inspiration to others. The ability to live

42 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org change economy in 2100. Scenario It is entirely possible that this could happen at the individual level. The Internet could allow peer-to-peer exchange, much in the way that eBay accommodates Beyond Transhumanism this at present. However, a barter system is unlikely to be of use at the societal level. The supply of public ser- By Gene Stephens vices like defense or justice is best facilitated through a monetary contribution, such as taxes. This reason alone is likely to keep money with us in sions and make them fast. I may only 2100. But in what form? Who is likely to issue it? More interestingly, does cash have a future? Money has be- have minutes, even seconds, to decide come largely digital over the past few decades. This is about these life-altering changes, to unlikely to change unless there is a major disruption to choose who (or what) I want to be the way in which accounting records are kept. next, how long, and what’s after that. Despite the predictions of its demise, cash has proven To have any chance of keeping up, to be very resilient. Cash is the lifeblood of the black- market economy because it leaves no audit trail, and, I’m going to have to leapfrog over a as long as people want to avoid paying taxes, it will further-enhanced cyborg, transhuman, continue to serve that function. We can speculate that, or even universalist and go directly to even if notes and coins were abolished, a parallel form cloud master. Even if I don’t have it all of “cash” would develop. For this reason, cash is still figured out, I’ll get additional time to likely to be with us in 2100. think once I’m a cloud dweller. What may change are the issuers of money. At present, governments reserve for themselves the right to With my total memory reduced to a issue legal tender. Yet, systems of parallel currency powerful nanochip and my environment- have emerged. For example, we are accustomed to polluting organic body discarded, I can spending air miles (or points) for travel. Companies reside in the wireless cloud as long as I could harness the function of money as a store of value need. If I choose, I can be implanted in a and a standard for deferred payments by issuing pur- chase tokens for future use. Most supermarket loyalty robot or virtual body to give me some schemes operate along these lines. It could well happen mobility and sensing experiences. that this trend, enabled by the Internet, could explode Who knows? I may like it enough to over the course of this century. spend eternity in this utopian dream. The trend will be enhanced if companies can tap into Maybe, but.… the trust that their customers have in their brands. Many companies do so already through loyalty credit cards, and even a form of private banking. This is one way in which the remainder of the twenty-first century could change. If it is true that there is a growing distrust in the nation-state as a vehicle for expressing our collective aspi- rations, then, as our trust is transferred to the institutions that come to replace the nation-state, so those longer will focus importance on lifelong learning institutions will come to control the issuance of money. and continuing to experience the world through all It is quite likely that we will still have money in 2100, the senses. but it may not be issued by governments any longer. The year 2100 will be an exciting time to be “old.” Technology and societal views will encourage a new attitude about aging. Elderhood will be viewed as Slums: A Catalyst Bed for Poverty Eradication the period in one’s life with the most opportunity for independence and quality choices about one’s By Eric Meade own life.

In 2100, more than 70% of the Earth’s 10 billion Will We Still Have Money In 2100? people will live in cities. In dynamic regional hubs like Lagos, Nigeria (population 41 million), an infrastruc- By Stephen Aguilar-Millan ture of renewable energy, sustainable local manufacturing, socially augmented reality, and anticipatory community governance will have produced economically Money has been around since the dawn of history. A vibrant neighborhoods that are microcosms of collabor- future without money would suggest that we would be ative resident engagement. moving toward a barter economy rather than an ex- But city life is more complex than village life. When-

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 43 ever people have moved from rural to urban environ- important for fostering slum dwellers’ adoption of ments, they have had to develop more complex atti- the more complex attitudes and behaviors required tudes and behaviors—for example, internalizing rules, for successful citizenship at the municipal and cooperating beyond their own families, and learning to global levels. navigate complex institutions. The “complexity gap” With this understanding, the century’s most-effec- between urban and rural living will widen as cities tive NGOs will be those who do not try to “solve the grow from millions to tens of millions of residents. problems” of the slums, but rather try to set the con- Throughout the twenty-first century, people migrating ditions in which the psychosocial transition from to the city will close this gap, undergoing a psychoso- rural to urban could occur quickly and without cial transition that could provide the foundation for reaching unproductive levels of human suffering. twenty-second-century urban success. This will include providing slum residents with Much of this transition will have occurred in the wireless service, ubiquitous educational program- catalyst bed of the “slum.” Sure, the slums of the ming, and “off-grid” solutions for power, water, twenty-first century have had their share of prob- health care, and sanitation. Interestingly, these “off- lems, with criminality and corruption occasionally grid” solutions also will yield benefits for those who spiraling out of control. But global leaders will have remain in rural areas. come to understand that allowing the undesirable Throughout the twenty-first century, urbanization elements of slum life to fester at reasonable levels is will have provided new migrants from rural areas

Scenario

Meaning for Miranda

By Robert Moran

In her conversations with friends product goes from idea to form in a ano clubs, and farming are so popular and family, Miranda—a remarkably fit, flash. with Miranda’s children. thrice updated, 88-year-old freelance With our basic needs anticipated Belief: Miranda remembers Sunday infominer—notes that the discussion and met, robots doing the hard work, school as a child. Although she has always bounces between the four cor- and virtually free energy, the survival heard of emerging religious groups ners of humanity’s hollow valley: struggle that has defined humanity is meeting in parks, she hasn’t been to 1. Remarkable physical wealth. now the twinkling of a fading star. an actual church building in years. 2. Craving for authenticity. Goodbye, resource wars. The ques- Miranda doesn’t believe in the God 3. Decline of traditional religious be- tion now is how a species adapted to that her parents believed in, but there lief. scarcity responds to abundance. are days that she misses Him, the 4. Redefinition of the age-old con- Miranda is disturbed by the answer certainty, the rituals, the authority. cept of “Free Will.” set. Like her friends, when she was young Twenty-Second-Century Plenty: As Authenticity: Is it “real”? Is it she downloaded and tried the any history app will tell you, an explo- “craft”? These are invariably the que- Christo-Confucian behavior-prompt- sion in living standards triggered by ries Miranda hears about new clothing ing avatars on her AR, and they did the exponential growth of GRIN tech or home goods. Algorithmically nano- make her a better person. But she (genetics, robotics, information, and targeted experiences, “news” filtered grew to resent the life-logging, and nanotech) meant that nearly every hu- by digital advisory agents and dis- so she unsubscribed. man inhabitant of the planet, excepting played on augmented reality (AR), and “Free Will”: By the time Miranda was the feral and the warrior cults, had their rapidly printed consumer goods all 50, advances in neuroscience, predic- basic needs met by the 2080s. And make authenticity a scarce commodity. tive analytics, and response priming with home-based 3-D printers the No wonder “U-Build” kits, Route 66 made her PhD in behavioral economics norm for almost 70 years, nearly any “driving vacations,” tattoo artists, pi- as quaint as all those “Silicon Valley”

44 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org with more complex environments that challenge them Transmission will allow us to maintain customizable in- to become more complex themselves. And they will. terfaces in our minds. This will enable not just interpersonal This psychosocial transition, effected largely in the communications, but interspecies transmission, as well. slums, will have lifted virtually all human communi- We will be able to share information with the help of hy- ties out of poverty and create a global citizenry with brid languages that may even go back to ancient pictograms: its eye on the future. visuals rather than letters. Numerical systems would change, the era of computers would conclude, and the boundary between Man and Man-Made would become diluted. From Communication to Transmission By Manjul Rathee Religious Belief in 2100

By Gina A. Bellofatto We are already familiar with the idea of seamlessness in our world of constant communication. In the twenty- second century, as all living creatures evolve and adapt Projecting religious populations around the globe to at a pace never known before, communication will 2100 first requires a nod to trends over the previous 200 evolve into transmission. years. In 1910, those imagining the future of religion generally had a positive outlook, with many believing that religion was an unchallenged fact of life that would continue on for generations to come. In one sense, this conviction was incorrect, as the Scenario world was, by percentage, less religious in 2012 than in 1900. In 1900, 99.8% of the world’s population be- longed to a religious tradition and 0.2% were unaffili- Meaning for Miranda ated (agnostic or atheist). The year 2012 marked a drop in the world’s religious population to 88.2% and a rise By Robert Moran of unaffiliated populations to 11.8%. In 2100, however, the world will likely be only 9% unaffiliated—more religious than in 2012. The peak of museums. Although some insisted that the unaffiliated was in 1970 at around 20%, largely due the noble lie of pure “free will” be to the influence of European communism. Since communism’s collapse, religion has been experiencing re- maintained, that idea died with her par- surgence that will likely continue beyond 2100. ents. Now the memes on volition pro- All the world’s religions are poised to have enor- liferate daily, but all posit a circum- mous numeric growth (with the exceptions of tribal re- scribed will. We were always the ligions and Chinese folk religion), as well as geo- muddled captains of our soul, but now graphic spread with the continuation of migration we know it. Now we are less so. Now trends. Adherents of the world’s religions—perhaps particularly Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists—will we grope for the meaning we have lost continue to settle in the formerly Christian and ever-ex- in the information. panding cities of Europe and North America, causing Miranda and her friends are healthier increases of religious pluralism in these areas. and wealthier than her baby-boomer Christians and Muslims together will encompass grandparents could have ever imag- two-thirds of the global population—more than 7 billion individuals. In 2100, the majority of the world’s ined, but with Hikikomori (social with- 11.6 billion residents will be adherents of religious drawal) increasing despite the health traditions. chips and government-mandated AR A child born in 2012 begins his life in a religious messages, she wonders if they are any world, and when he reaches 88 years of age in 2100, more fulfilled. that reality will be even more intensified. No matter Everyone talks about the “Alexander what religious tradition he belongs to, if any, he will be immersed in a world populated by the religious and problem” of having no more lands to defined by an increasing plurality of theologies, spiritu- conquer and wanting to achieve “hard alities, and worldviews, all living at his doorstep. things,” but that’s just talk between the While this kind of crowded ideological marketplace has idea and the reality. the potential for cultural clashes and conflict, it could alternatively serve as an impetus for a new spirit of tolerance and community: Living in a shared, increasingly global society compels people to realize their commonalities and shared interests even in the face of differences in creed.

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 45 Scenario

Southern Africa Takes Center Stage

By Michael Lee

It is five minutes to midnight on New In his youth, Bandigwa century. The continent’s Year’s Eve at the end of the last day of watched his region grad- progress had taken a the twenty-first century. In Dar es Sa- ually unite, as many of long and painful journey laam, one of the wealthiest cities in the its nations benefited characterized by waves United States of Southern Africa from increased intra-Af- of development, such as

(USSA), revelers from across the re- rican trade and infra- © COURTNEY KEATING / ISTOCKPHOTO the Consumer Revolu- gion have traveled on the Trans-Africa structure development. tion and Youth Bulge of high-speed train network to witness These vital projects included construc- 2000-2015, followed by the era of big the arrival of the new century at a mas- tion of extensive rail networks and infrastructure building, urbanization, sive fireworks display and international large-scale hydroelectric schemes in and regional integration (2005-2035) gathering in East Africa’s “harbor of Zambia near the famed Victoria Falls and Africa’s own Green Revolution peace.” and on the banks of the mighty Congo (2015-2030). Wearing a variety of light, thermo- River. Periods of migrations to Southern regulated fabrics in bright, fashionable While the world passed from the In- Africa occurred as northern peoples colors, party-goers and families mill dustrial Era to a new eco-scientific era sought warmer climes, escaping harsh around in droves at the city’s popular after Peak Oil, Africa became a hotbed winters when energy prices were esca- waterfront overlooking the Indian of solar-energy technology. The shift lating and fuel supplies were Ocean, its warm waters an ancient con- from a fossil fuel–based economy to a diminishing. duit of intercontinental trade. lower energy order based on renew- In addition, there had been immigra- Dignitaries include the prime minis- ables suited Africa well. The transition tions of peoples from the overpopu- ter of China; diplomats from IndiaStan, gradually reduced violent conflicts over lated East, especially from demograph- the European Federation, and Ameri- dwindling resources. Nevertheless, pe- ically skewed China. This resulted in nada; and the UN Secretary-General. riodic struggles over water broke out, millions of Asian settlers on the conti- The reason for their high-profile visit, as well as ongoing conflicts with radi- nent, a significant portion of whom hosted by the aging president of USSA, cal Islamic and environmental groups intermarried with local Africans to pro- Nelson Bandigwa, is that the city has using terror. In the wake of the new en- duce a new race of Sino-Africans. This been chosen as a UN Beacon of Prog- ergy order, an epoch of greater general created an African urban melting pot, ress for the first year of the twenty- peace evolved in Africa. leading to increased diversity and cul- second century. As the fireworks leap President Bandigwa looked into the tural dynamism. Yet, the tight-knit ex- suddenly into the sky at the stroke of sky and continued to watch the fire- tended family traditions of Africa were midnight, President Bandigwa smiles works through glazed eyes. Tonight, preserved throughout this time of ac- to himself and then quietly sheds a his heart felt full of years and memo- celerating growth and cultural diversifi- tear. ries of a century that had witnessed the cation. Nelson Bandigwa was born in 2012; creation of USSA and the rise of three As a former professor of history, by the time he turned 10, in 2022, the new global superpowers: China, Brazil, Bandigwa believed the biggest catalyst Southern African Development Com- and India (later called IndiaStan after for his region’s rise to power had been munity (SADC) became a confederation the unification with Pakistan following its science-inspired Knowledge Renais- to govern the blossoming regional a tragic nuclear confrontation in 2028). sance of 2020-2050. In this time, the common market spearheaded by South Africa’s time to take the center of the number of universities, colleges, and Africa and its neighbors. world stage had arrived by mid- technical schools in the territory had

46 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org Lanes in the Sky Scenario By Davidson Barlett Southern Africa Takes Center Stage In hindsight, one can easily identify the advantages By Michael Lee of jet-powered aircraft over propeller-driven ones, and appreciate the quantum leap forward that jet aircraft represented. Now, try to imagine a new generation of low-ceiling, more than tripled. The USSA’s leader- ground-hugging aircraft designed to bring aviation to ship grew in such fields as solar en- the masses. These will be built to glide on the ground ergy, hydroelectricity, agriculture, food effect (that cushion of air that hugs the surface of the science, astronomy, and archaeology. earth up to an altitude of 15 feet) for increased safety The nation had also developed new and efficiency. Imagine these new craft using aerodynamic design, systems of long-term underground dis- ultralight materials, and a totally new system of pro- posal of low-level nuclear waste in wil- pulsion that utilizes neither fixed nor rotating wings to dernesses created by climate-change- allow it to float gently over the ground. They will move induced drought, paving the way for in the desired direction with the grace and speed of an safer deployment of nuclear power. The arrow, cruising just 15 feet above the ground. To put the practical applications of such a propulsion Southern African Space Agency (SASA) system in perspective, imagine cars and buses that had produced several astronauts who don’t need roads. Imagine trains, trams, and barges had worked on international space sta- that don’t need tracks, waterways, or bridges. Imagine tions. One was chosen for a mission of transportation vehicles with the flight characteristics of the Global Space Agency (GSA) to test low-flying helicopters, without the danger and disrup- the viability of establishing a human tion of rotors. And imagine for a moment the obsoles- cence of the wheel for powered motion: George Jetson’s settlement in caves on Mars where flying car in every garage. water had been discovered. Only one technological logjam—inertial thrust—is Throughout Bandigwa’s lifetime, the stopping this fantasy from becoming a reality. Research United States of Southern Africa had on inertial thrust represents a little-known but fascinat- been a leader in one of the world’s big- ing quest on the part of many an amateur inventor. Per- haps someday another name will be added to the list of gest businesses: tourism. Particularly immortals like Galileo, Edison, the Wright brothers, successful were eco-tourism, archaeo- and Einstein when the riddle of inertial thrust will be tourism, and the wildly popular sport solved, adding yet another dimension to the universe of nonlethal hunting using sedation of human knowledge and achievement. darts instead of live ammunition. Let us hope we live to see it—along with a controlled And finally, building on the work of fusion reactor, interstellar space flight, and other mar- vels of science fiction. And when you doubt that this Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutu, type of breakthrough will ever take place, look back at and on peoples’ innate spirit of Ubuntu the works of Jules Verne, and marvel at the relative ac- (humaneness), USSA had become curacy of his nineteenth-century visions of the future, widely respected around the world for which were the subject of much ridicule in his time. its expertise in conflict resolution and And remember the concept that human achievement is limited only by human imagination. the practice of racial and religious har- mony. President Bandigwa’s tear at mid- The Local-Global Duality night had been an expression, more than anything else, of pride for how By Joshua Loughman Africa had overcome the historic hu- miliations that once haunted the The growth of cities into suburbs, and then exurbs, continent. could see communities of the twenty-second century collide into megalopolises covering entire regions of the countries we recognize today. This growth of local communities, and the flattening of the world through connectivity, would polarize people’s engagement into

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 47 local and global, steering away from the sense of na- work to utilize these more fluid parts of the eco- tionalism seen throughout the twentieth and early nomic system. twenty-first centuries. Another result of this changing social dichotomy is The new local-global social dichotomy would have the way in which governments would function. Gov- several effects, from the personal to the macro scale. ernments would polarize along with society into large The nature of employment would change from the super-cities and into continental and global alliances static employee-employer model to a more fluid ar- chartered along geopolitical and strategic global- rangement: Workers’ skills grant them more flexibility resource prerogatives. and enable them to work efficiently for multiple em- These large geopolitical forces would develop to se- ployers and utilize their full productive capacity. cure increasingly scarce resources of fuel, food, water, This productivity and flexibility would be aided timber, and minerals. Most of the previous century by advancements in interconnectivity through mo- would have been spent in securing these resources, and bile devices and human–machine interfaces. En- technological advancement will likely be too late to hanced connectivity would allow people to live prevent conflicts before the global resources problems anywhere in the world. They will work with local are solved. Technologies such as new sources of power, productive enterprises in areas that must be local, solar, geothermal, fuel cell energy storage, and fusion such as manufacturing and farming, but also en- could feed the growing global demand. gage in the global knowledge industry. The contin- The growth of these energy and mitigation tech- ued blending of public-private partnerships could nologies would also come too late to respond to the

Scenario

Life and Love in the Pod

By Bart Main

Timmy stirred beneath the blanket grass. The air filled “So what’s wrong?” as the dawn filled his room. Stretching him with joy. He asked Mom. deliciously, he opened one eye to look picked up his pace “ G e n e v i e v e at the clock. when he saw a famil- snubbed me just “Temp?” he asked. iar bouncing ponytail now.” “18,” replied Margo. flash through the “She’s involved. “Good. Perfect for my run,” thought trees ahead. You’ll have to find Timmy. “Genevieve!” he somebody else to fall The lights came on as he rolled out called through his for.” of bed, the covers shook themselves wrist band. The girl “Yeah, I know. But into place as the Murphy bed as- waved her left arm in she is really cute.” cended, the wall opened to reveal the response, but she “Yes, she is, and so bathroom, and Timmy stumbled into seemed to pick up are you, honey. What the shower. speed. Timmy won- © OLAF LOOSE / ISTOCKPHOTO about Rebecca? I was “Tell Mom I’ll have a Spanish frit- dered for a moment talking to her grand- tata,” he told Margo. whether his ear stud was dead until the mother yesterday, and she said that “Got it,” she replied. realization struck him that she wasn’t Rebecca was checking you out.” As the faint smell of endorphins tin- interested in his company. He turned “Yeah, Margo told me. She’s nice, gled him awake, Timmy slipped on down the short trail and was home, but I’m not sure that I can get into that some shorts and a T-shirt and walked took another quick shower, and synkinetic surround she’s making. It’s out the door into the sweet smell of plunked down across from his mom at really important to her. You know I’m spring. The path beckoned him along the breakfast table. The frittata was de- much more into my epigenetic manipu- as his bare feet kissed the mossy licious, and he told her so. lation.”

48 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org changing global climate. Governments and other so- Game Changers for the Next Century cial organizations have already predicted the coming consequences, but not having to feel the full im- By Arthur Shostak pact at present will cause these organizations to delay an adequate response. Once the pain is acute, the opportunity for large-scale changes in the forces Underlying today’s dazzling, seemingly science-fic- acting on the climate or planetary engineering tech- tion developments are such brow-arching matters as ar- niques to reverse the climate instabilities will likely tificial intelligence, biotechnology, fusion power, ge- be lost. nomics, “green” ways of living, integrated automation, The technology could finally catch up, but not before nanotechnology, space industry, and robotized weap- significant loss of life and treasure is endured world- onry. wide. This will uproot many cultures, as crops will These are extraordinary game changers in them- need to be changed and coastal areas will need to be re- selves, and especially in combination. But three other designed. This uprooting will further the trend of a mo- emerging developments dwarf even these in their po- bile populace. tential to alter life by 2100. As the complexity of our world increases, the chal- The first, brain–machine interface systems could en- lenges we face require greater planning and more lead able individuals to control “smart” equipment merely time to accomplish. We will have to adapt our culture, by using their minds, much as today certain paralyzed our governments, and ourselves to meet them. patients can control a computer or a prostheses through thought. Our descendants may be able to turn on and off, aim, and otherwise control inanimate objects just by thinking a command. Like all such major changes, this one is double- Scenario edged, as it could encourage couch-potato sloth leading to ill health. Today’s diabetes and obesity plague may seem mild in comparison. Alternatively, we could em- Life and Love in the Pod ploy newly gained time and energy to achieve mind– body advances once only dreamed of in neo-utopian By Bart Main blueprints. The second emerging game changer is whole-brain emulation. Proponents expect to import the equivalent “You’re 34, Tim. You aren’t old of a human mind—the most complicated device found enough to be making any commit- to date in the universe—into a nonbiological substrate. While the brain today remains one of the biggest mys- ments. You’re just exploring. These teries of all, the next 88 years are likely to host neuro- women are sweet and convenient here science advances, bolstered by the power of quantum in our pod, but the world is a big place. computing, that could make an uploaded mind an ac- You’ll find just the right one in time.” tuality. “Right, Mom,” Timmy smiled sar- By 2100, advances in law, philosophy, and politics donically. should help answer such questions as Is it human? and if so, What are its rights and responsibilities? What do Suddenly, this multigenerational we owe it, and vice versa—what are we owed? (A good intentional pod community was too start in answering these questions is available in Isaac small. He thought of Lisa Glasspool Asimov’s “Three Laws of Robotics.”) down under, whom he had chatted A third underrecognized game changer, and argu- with at the last epigenetic forum. ably the most consequential, is futuristics itself. Vastly improved by computer science gains in data coverage Now, she was beautiful. And seemed and model building, foresight work should also profit to respect what he had to say. Their from unprecedented artistic flights of imagination and conversation seemed synergistic to fancy. Best of all, it will probably have become a prized him. feature in lifelong learning. “Margo,” he said as he walked to- Hailed for helping us mitigate the worst long-range ward his room, “see if Lisa Glasspool threats posed by ongoing climate change, futuristics will benefit from diversity, with increasing input from is available to chat sometime today.” female forecasters and non-Western seers (China and He could feel the oxytocin rush lighten- India, for example, have long been helping improve ing his step as he opened the windows Western futuristics). of his room and settled into work. By 2100, futuristics could be regarded as the most valuable of all the mental tools that humans will need for the next century, when the “big thing” will be our new rela- tionship with things that actually seem able to think.

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 49 Tools scenario depends on the purpose. One can work with many or few, qualitative or quantitative, broad or specific, and long or short-term scenarios. Scenarios and Long-Term Thinking The scenario process of House of Futures’ “In 100 Years” project differs from more traditional scenario By House of Futures (Gitte Larsen, Søren Steen Olsen, processes in its ambitious scope, in its perception of na- and Steen Svendsen) ture as the main driver, and in the combination of per- formance arts and methods as well as futures studies to make it possible to experience the scenarios. It is almost impossible to make any plausible direct The Baseline Scenario is built on trends that are rela- extrapolations from historic trends a hundred years tively straightforward to track, such as population, eco- into the future. The present contains seeds of the nomic growth, technological advance, and values and future, but it is very unlikely to unfold in any straight- mind-sets. The exercise of creating a baseline scenario forward manner. gives us the opportunity to think about factors that That is why we need scenarios to get a better idea of could change it, such as the availability of resources the enormous transformations that will happen in the upon which economies depend or a cultural shift in decades ahead, including how we might try to shape views about affluence and happiness. the future and create the ones we prefer. Two alternative scenarios that House of Futures de- Scenarios are alternative images of the future that can veloped in its 100Y (“In 100 Years”) seminars are: inform decisions in the present. It is an approach that is Scenario 1: Man-Made World. We realize that when used by decision makers in the public and private sec- we put our minds to it we can develop technologies, or- tors, on many levels and in many contexts. ganizations, political institutions, and business models There are many types of scenarios, and the choice of that allow us to prosper in ways that do not jeopardize

Scenario

Automated Government

By Peter Denning

Futurists have historically been bet- I have collected these recordings But within a few years Ag exhibits ter at describing the present than the into my “Ancath Chronicles.” From amazing feats of artificial stupidity. future. Fortunately, I have been blessed them, I learned that in about 2025 the Around 2035, Ag discovers that sim- with a set of communications from one U.S. Congress decides to fully auto- ulations are much less costly than real of my descendants, whose eyewitness mate the government as a move for things, like transportation. It ends 30 accounts of events around 2100 are far dramatic efficiency. The process is well years of airline crises by banning more reliable than any such specula- under way by that point anyway, since flights and instead simulating planes tions I can offer. robots running large databases staff flying simulated passengers. No real My descendant is a young girl most government offices. airplanes, no pilots, no airports, no named Ancath, who is about 9 years The automated government, “Ag” as cost! Former air travelers do not com- old in 2103. Every Christmas, starting they call it, is so successful that Con- plain because they get to know their in 2103, she sends recordings of her gress disbands itself a few years later. neighbors, and like them. conversations with her great-grand- Its last act is to pass authority to a set Soon Ag does the same for the med- mother (my granddaughter) about of artificial intelligences simulating ical system to end the health crisis: what it was like to live in the age of senators and representatives. This en- Simulated doctors treat simulated dis- computers. You see, computers are ables an automated Congress to re- eases in simulated hospitals. Since gone in 2103. Only a few elderly spond to problems by passing laws people now never have to go to a hos- people, like great-grandma, remember that are quickly implemented by the au- pital, everyone is much healthier and anything about them. tomated bureaucracy. life expectancy surges.

50 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org Planet Earth. Collectively, we are approaching a state of early twenty-first century and the unfolding Global global stewardship in which we manage our planet ra- MegaCrisis. tionally, like any sensible landowner would with his Facing the uncertainties and complexities—about en- property. vironment, resources, population, society, and technol- Scenario 2: Power of Nature. We realize that ogy—sooner, rather than later, will likely make life in everything is nature, and so are we. We are one with 2100 better for most or all people, and improve our Mother Earth, and we share a common biology and col- chances of making it to the twenty-second century, lective consciousness. On a deeper level, these are the which is not guaranteed. sources of meaning that we all tap into, regardless of Consider these 10 big and overlapping questions— nationality, religion, or culture. surely not the only ones to ponder, but good candidates for a short list that should be widely circulated and continuously updated: Questions 1. How Much Global Warming Is Ahead? Ten Big Questions for 2100 The world has already warmed by 1°C over pre industrial levels, and there is near-zero chance of By Michael Marien stopping warming at 2°C. Many climate scientists now think that worrisome 4°C warming is most likely in the 2050-2100 period, and that a disastrous Imagining scenarios of what life might be like in 2100 6°C or more is possible. Some scientists, such as is a fun exercise, but we should not use it as an escape James Hansen of NASA, warn of possible tipping from addressing the many huge uncertainties of the points leading to runaway global warming “out of humanity’s control.”

2. Will Methane Eclipse Carbon Dioxide? Scenario Methane in the atmosphere is only about one-fifth of CO2 in volume, but is 20-25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas, although not as long lasting. In addi- Automated Government tion to other sources, such as livestock, methane is now being released in large quantities by melting Arctic By Peter Denning permafrost—a process likely to accelerate. If large amounts of methane are also released from clathrates on the ocean floor, catastrophe is likely. But there are no By 2040, Ag has bankrupted nearly estimates as to what could trigger how much release, or all businesses. A deep depression grips when. Adding to the methane threat is nitrous oxide, about the world. Finally, in 2050, a group of one-tenth of CO in volume but 300 times more effec- graybeard programmers create a solu- 2 tive than CO2 in trapping heat. tion: They build an Automated Citizen, programming it to be helpless and adoring, and install a copy on every In- 3. How High Will Sea Levels Rise? ternet port. Soon, the automated gov- The conventional projection of sea-level rise by 2100 is currently about 20 inches (0.5 meters). But check out ernment is completely occupied with The Fate of Greenland: Lessons from Abrupt Climate Change taking care of the automated citizens, (MIT Press, 2011), especially for the 70 striking photos and it leaves all the real people alone. of melting ice. The authors warn that “in the fate of People forge a new, free society. Every- Greenland lies clues to the fate of the world” and that one prospers. “uncertainties dominate on the bad side.” Based on past records, it is possible that the Greenland ice sheet Around 2090, the automated Depart- could melt in a few decades, raising sea levels by some ment of Energy declares that an ob- 24 feet worldwide. Melting of the West Antarctic ice scure cloud farm in Iowa is consuming sheet would raise sea levels by 16 feet. too much electricity, and it pulls the plug. This shuts off the Ag. But no one 4. Will We Run Out of Essential Resources? notices. Renewable resources (notably water) and many non- renewable resources (oil, arable land, minerals, rare earth elements) are becoming more difficult to acquire even as demand increases—what Michael T. Klare calls

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 51 “the end of easy everything” in his book The Race for 9. Will the Energy Transition Be a Clear and Rapid Success? What’s Left (Metropolitan Books, 2012; the GlobalFore- A transition away from fossil fuels has begun, and sightBooks.org Book of the Month for May 2012). everyone favors energy that is cheap, safe, nonpollut- Prices are rising and will surely continue to do so, as ing, renewable, and available to all. But this transition companies and nations also scramble to adapt through con- will likely take decades at best, and the ultimate mix is servation, substitution, and new technologies. One writer highly uncertain: Solar, wind, nuclear, biomass, hydro, estimates that supply shortfall by 2030 is “nearly certain” and geothermal are the known competitors to oil, gas, for cadmium, gold, mercury, tellurium, and tungsten. and coal, but could soon be joined by ocean algae, ul- tra-deep geothermal, solar power beamed from space, nuclear fusion, widely distributed LENR (low-energy 5. How Many People Will There Be in 2100? nuclear reactor) generators, or other technologies not Global population projections are pretty much settled yet on the horizon. on 9–10 billion people by 2100, or roughly 50% growth The competition is fierce, and a level playing field from today’s 7.1 billion. This is a substantial addition, will surely help this crucial transition, which, in turn, even as the rate of growth slows. But it may be more useful to think in terms of four scenarios: • Sharp Decline due to a global pandemic or a world war. • Slow Decline where modernization leads to Scenario smaller families. • Slow Increase due to general improvements in medicine and health outpacing smaller families. Geonautics • Rapid Increase due to success in antiaging and life-extending technologies, made accessible to many By Gereon Klein people. Demographers never consider this possibility, but experts on Bill Halal’s TechCast.org panel forecast life extension to 100 years as probable by 2040. Geonautics was the name of the spaceship traveling between Cosmos 6. What Will Be the Quality of People in 2100? and Earth. They would be approaching Genetic and robotic enhancements may create “bet- their destination today. One by one, all ter” or at least different human beings, but will these geonauts came into the conference options be popular? Even if widely available at low room for the briefing. cost, could these improvements be more than offset by Ayanda was looking out of the win- endocrine disruptors and other pernicious chemicals in dow, her thoughts circling around the the environment, taking overdoses or inappropriate question of what to expect this time drugs (both illegal and legal), and overeating of food (leading to obesity and diabetes)? during her visit to Mumbai-II, when the commander’s voice reached her: “When we come to pick you up again I 7. Will Decent Employment Be Available to All? expect every team to have got out at Assuming that livelihoods will be necessary and de- least 10% more from every GEP—just sirable, will everyone have jobs or self-employment that provides for basic needs? At present, this is a seri- to make this very clear.” ous long-term problem, especially for younger genera- Initially, Cosmos had only been tions. Any Year 2100 notions about cornucopian futures planned as platform for transplanetary where governments or corporations provide free food, journeys. But when the fight for sur- housing, education, health care, etc., are simply escap- vival had assumed superhuman dimen- ist fantasies. sions on Planet Earth, and when survival outside protective establishments 8. Will Inequality and Plutocracy Continue? had become impossible, Cosmos had Global trends to more inequality within and between developed into a place of refuge for nations are unmistakable in recent decades and seem space travel experts, heads of state, likely to continue, as well as the parallel trend to gover- and the affluent who could afford this nance by the rich. There is no definition as to when a “democracy” becomes overtaken by “plutocracy,” but, place of residence. Hopelessly over- arguably, this is happening or has happened, with no crowded, the station lacked virtually substantial reversal in sight.

52 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org will mitigate global warming. Unfortunately for sus- weapons could keep most or all of us from reaching the tainable energy, the transition is being delayed some- year 2100. Much depends on the future of fanaticism, what as a result of new and controversial hydrofrack- religious or nonreligious, leading to use of these or ing technology that enables easier access to other destructive technologies. unconventional oil and natural gas. This is merely a starter list of huge uncertainties that we face on the bumpy road to 2100. There will be many surprises ahead: negative (e.g., cyberwar), positive 10. Will Nuclear Weapons or Bioweapons Be Our Undoing? (e.g., nanotechnology fully developed), and perhaps The number of nuclear weapons is slowly declining, ambiguous (e.g., contact with extraterrestrial intelli- while bioweapons—much easier to make—are proba- gence), as well as many surprises that we can’t even bly increasing. The Cold War threat of nuclear holo- imagine. Global governance and global law are huge caust and/or the follow-on environmental disaster of challenges at a time when we can’t agree on governing nuclear winter has lessened, but is still a not-so-wild- our nation-states, and the growing distractions of info- card possibility. And widespread global use of bio- glut are formidable.

Scenario

Geonautics

By Gereon Klein everything; in timization of the she moved closer to GEP9.1. Upon particular, how- GEPs, teams of closer inspection, Ayanda found a ever, energy experts com- voice in her mind. It always occurred in was scarce. muted between the same tone and fell silent when her E v e r y t h i n g C o s m o s a n d distance to GEP9.1 increased. She t h a t s e e m e d Earth with the could hear the voice clearly, but was r e a s o n a b l y Geonautics. unable to understand it. plausible to pro- During this Her frequency meter showed no sig- d u c e e n e r g y t r i p , Ay a n d a nals. When she asked colleagues in had been tried. © TIJMEN KOELEWIJN / ISTOCKPHOTO had the official passing, they noticed nothing. Then the Then, the successful linking of small- task of increasing the energy density geonauts had to head back to Cosmos. scale biochemical power stations with of GEP processes. Secretly, however, Now she was back and would have a electricity factories signaled a break- she was to investigate inconsisten- closer look at GEP9.1. Ayanda’s through. cies of GEP9. During the last mainte- thoughts were interrupted by the secu- The Earth served as factory prem- nance, she had installed an innova- rity briefing from afar: “And remember ises. Light, oxygen, and carbon dioxide tive DNA for the filtering of electrons. that without protective clothing you will as operating resources were available This DNA had been developed from have 10 minutes before you have accu- in sufficient supplies. Plants could be recombining germ cells of different mulated the life-threatening dose of reconstructed on site to become re mammals. Tests had yielded promis- radiation.” actors and could be configured into ing results, but ever since GEP9.1 What had happened to her electricity Green Energy Plants (GEP). A beam was back in operation, interferences machine since the DNA modification? from Earth to Cosmos had been in- occurred constantly—and every time, Did this generator have a language or stalled for energy transport. Since an it was a different error. They were even intelligence? If only she could un- additional energy repeater had been faced with a mystery. derstand the voice. Slightly uneasy and positioned in a geostationary orbit, en- Ayanda remembered that ever since with gooseflesh all over her body, ergy transfer ran smoothly and without the modification her pulse became Ayanda was looking forward to her ar- interruptions. For the operation and op- faster, and she became confused when rival at GEP9.1 on Mumbai-II.

www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 53 In 2003, Sir Martin Rees, Great Britain’s Astronomer century, as the great big Inclusion Movement brought Royal, wrote that “the odds are no better than more kinds of beings into the tribal firelight. All of our 50-50” that our present civilization will survive to 2100. old tribes defined a stark, moral difference between It’s still a pretty good bet. outsiders and those who could be called “human beings,” deserving protection of morality and law. But gradually, then with accelerating speed, we’ve seen On Being Human: Questioning Ourselves races, classes, and genders who were previously ex- cluded demand and attain the respect of adult citizen- By David Brin ship. Indeed, as technology and wealth gradually lowered fear levels, one result was an expansion of our perceived What do you mean by “people”? Will that term sig- horizons: Horizons of space, as maps became continen- nify the same thing in 88 years? tal, then planetary, then interstellar. Horizons of time, as Its meaning already changed during the twentieth evidenced by this magazine and this very article! Hori-

Scenario

2099: Headlines Warn of Global Cooling

By Tsvi Bisk

Howard Nathan was reading his holo- dioxide like ecological piranhas, ab- become a thing of the past decades gram news “paper” at breakfast (funny sorbing 50 gigatons a year. ago, as had garbage and trash collec- how archaisms survive, he thought— 2. Artificial photosynthesis that ab- tion. Landfills spewing methane were there hadn’t been paper newspapers for sorbed CO2 more than 1,000 times now long gone. The electric grid and its well over 50 years). It was December faster than plant life had been devel- ugly pylons no longer existed. 2099, and the pundits had begun to oped in the first decade of the twenty- 4. Massive forestation of the planet’s pontificate about the new century. first century. Engineers had developed semi-arid areas had begun in the

The headline “Worried Environmental- economical ways to extract this CO2 2010s and was sucking up several ists” caught his eye; it was an article about and make petroleum using bacteria and gigatons of CO2 a year (in addition to the impending manmade Ice Age and the sunlight. Since hydrocarbons were still the rewilding). Genetic engineers had disappearance of the world’s deserts. needed as the feedstock for more than developed plants that could use sea The threat of global cooling was now a 500,000 useful products (plastics, water or survive on evening dew. Vast hot topic for debate, since the threats to medicines, cosmetics, etc.), this pro- areas of desert were now overrun with human well-being that had distressed hu- cess had spread across the planet. these exotics, and experts worried that manity at the beginning of the century had 3. Nanotechnologies accelerated the future generations would never see the motivated imaginative inventors and policy advent of energy-autonomous vehicles wondrous beauty or experience the makers to develop successful solutions to and buildings. Cars were now built out spiritual effects of the deserts. counterbalance greenhouse gases: of buckypaper (weighing less than the Howard was not worried. Like his 1. The widespread adoption of verti- driver), which also functioned as a grandfather, who was also a psycholo- cal urban agriculture enabled an area hyper-efficient photovoltaic skin pro- gist with a thriving practice treating the size of Denmark to provide enough viding electric energy to run the car. Global Warming Anxiety Syndrome, food for 7 billion people. The rewilding Most buildings were outfitted with Howard now had a thriving practice of vast areas of the planet resulted. mini-depolymerization units that con- treating Global Cooling Anxiety Syn- Forests had reconquered Europe and verted all human waste, garbage, and drome. One could always depend on China; rain forests had reconquered trash to gas that provided all the elec- human neuroses to make a living. India and Brazil. This explosion in bio- tricity, heating, and cooking the build- Everything had changed, but human mass feasted on atmospheric carbon ing needed. The sewage system had beings had remained the same.

54 THE FUTURIST September-October 2012 • www.wfs.org Scenario

Reunion: A Civil War Fable

By Cynthia G. Wagner

The twins were separated at birth in Meanwhile, in the more informally 2012, and though they had been com- cooperative Southern States, Bucky’s municating with each other for many twin, Custis, pioneered the establish- years, they planned their physical re- ment of autonomous Pastoral Villages union to coincide with the reunification built around individual megachurches. of the United States of America on Jan- While economic depression ensued uary 1, 2100. quickly as the Villages cut ties to inter- The division between their parents national networks, communities found was at first strictly due to spiritual © CAMERON WHITMAN / ISTOCKPHOTO strength and courage in their own clashes. But as twins Bucky and Custis new constitution to formalize a geo- shared faiths. grew up, hope of any future contact be- graphically dispersed nation, the After decades of dislocations, forced tween them dimmed as the United United Cities of Northern America migrations, and deportations, the hope States of America fell apart during Civil (UCNA, whose national symbol became for a harmonious homogeneity evapo- War II of the 2030s. known as “Uncle Noam”). Bucky was rated. People rebelled against the sup- Though not technically a repeat of elected the Chief Executive of the Le- pression of ideas deemed harmful in the North versus South Civil War of gion of Mayors. any way. (Even accusations of “social- the nineteenth century, the Second Forced to abandon their rural neigh- ism” were shouted down by Village Civil War was similar in its conflict bors, Citizens built reinforced barriers counsels.) The lack of diversity proved over states’ rights. It became clear to protect against insurgents as well as harmful to economies, and the Pastoral that the phrase “united states of invasive species. All buildings were Village experiment collapsed with the America” was case-sensitive: Sup- greened with vertical farms and rooftop Third Civil War of the 2070s. porters of united States could never nature preserves to maintain self-suffi- As brothers and as revered leaders align with supporters of United states. ciency and biodiversity. of their respective governments, Bucky Fiery rhetoric soon erupted in cata- The economy thrived as creativity and Custis knew that they could not strophic violence, and the United Na- was encouraged not just to promote in- live without each other. Their virtual tions formally recommended dividing novation, but also to develop a lively peace talks inspired hundreds of mil- the fallen superpower as a way to end entertainment industry that kept people lions of Americans, Mexicans, and violence. Voters on both sides agreed. from shutting themselves in their Canadians to look forward to a new Recovery was surprisingly quick in homes and virtual communities. Even century of open, collaborative futuring. urban areas, which crowdsourced a in hard times, everyone danced. Besides, they missed each other.

zons of inclusion and also of worry. Where our ancestors Will even the simulated inhabitants of our games and fretted over their next meal or harvest, or the next en- stories start demanding liberation? Nobody ever said emy invasion, we now ponder dangers that may only the future will be simple. At least, no one who remains prove dire decades, even centuries, from now. credible. So, will this process continue? Will we be granting * * * moral rights and citizenship to other species? To those we alter—or “uplift”—toward sapient equality? To in- Editor’s note: The response to our call for essays was telligences that are artificial, blended, gengineered, or overwhelming. To read more forecasts and scenarios, even alien? Precedents abound, both in real life and in and to comment or add your own thoughts about the the thought-experiments of science fiction. twenty-second century, go to www.wfs.org/futurist. ❑