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Sevinç Bermek University of Warwick institutional repository: http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap/57144 This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. The Emergence and Consolidation of the AKP and Its Impact on Turkish Politics and Society Sevinç Bermek A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Warwick October 2012 Table of Contents Prologue .................................................................................................. 7 Abstract .................................................................................................. 9 Declaration ............................................................................................ 11 Acknowledgements ................................................................................ 12 Introduction .......................................................................................... 16 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................. 16 RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY ............................................................................. 19 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ............................................................. 21 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ..................................................................................... 22 TERMINOLOGY ................................................................................................. 24 THESIS STRUCTURE: CHAPTER SUMMARIES ..................................................... 25 Acronyms .............................................................................................. 29 Glossary ................................................................................................ 33 Chapter 1 Historical and Political Background in Turkey ......................... 37 1.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 37 1.2 THE SINGLE-PARTY REGIME: 1923 - 1946 .................................................. 38 1.3 THE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM: 1950 - 1960 ..................................................... 43 1.4 FRAGMENTATION OF THE MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM BETWEEN THE MILITARY INTERVENTION OF 1960 AND MEMORANDUM OF 1971 ..................................... 46 1.5 CONTINUED FRAGMENTATION AND THE BEGINNING OF COALITION GOVERNMENTS BETWEEN 1973 AND 1980 ....................................................... 52 1.6 THE THREE-YEAR MILITARY REGIME: 1980 - 1983 ................................... 58 1.7 THE RESTORATION OF DEMOCRACY: 1983 - 1992 ...................................... 61 1.8 COALITION GOVERNMENT AND EMERGENCE OF THE AKP: 1992 - 2002 .... 65 1.9 THE AKP AND THE DOMINANT-PARTY SYSTEM: 2002 - 2011 .................... 75 1.10 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 80 Chapter 2 Literature Review .................................................................. 83 2.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 83 2.2 TRADITIONAL POLITICAL SCIENCE THEORIES AND POLITICAL PARTIES ..... 84 2.2.1 SPATIAL COMPETITION AND PARTY IDEOLOGY ....................................... 84 2.3 TRADITIONAL THEORIES OF POLITICAL PARTY SYSTEMS ........................... 87 2.3.2 Party Systems: Institutional Factors................................................... 93 2.3.3 Party Systems: Competition Factors .................................................. 95 2.4 APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF VOTING BEHAVIOUR ........................... 97 2.4.2 Voting: Retrospective Factors ............................................................ 98 2 2.4.3 Voting: Socio-Psychological Factors ................................................. 99 2.4.4 Voting: Sociological Factors ........................................................... 101 2.4.5 Voting: Geographical Characterics ................................................. 104 2.5 STUDIES ON VOTING PATTERNS, VOTING BEHAVIOUR, TURKISH PARTY SYSTEM AND TURKISH PARTIES ..................................................................... 105 2.5.1 Empirical Work on Voting Patterns and Behaviour ......................... 105 2.5.1.1 Empirical Work on Economic Voting Behaviour .......................... 105 2.5.1.2 Empirical Work on Retrospective Voting Behaviour ........................... 109 2.5.1.3 Empirical Work on Voting Behaviour according to Attitudinal Characteristics ................................................................................................... 110 2.5.1.5 Empirical Work on Voting along Lines of Social Cleavages ............... 114 2.5.2.1 Work on Party Systems: Historical Approaches ................................... 117 2.5.2.2 Work on Elections and Party Organizations ......................................... 119 2.6 COUNTRY STUDIES ON TURKEY AND TURKISH POLITICS .......................... 120 2.6.1 COUNTRY STUDIES ON TURKEY ............................................................. 120 2.6.2 Studies on Turkish Politics ............................................................... 126 2.7 TURKISH LITERATURE ON THE STRUCTURE OF TURKISH SOCIETY AND POLITICAL ISLAM ........................................................................................... 127 2.7.1 Analysis of Turkish Society: Application of Western Theories and Models to Analysis of the Turkish-Ottoman Society up to 1980s .............. 128 2.7.2 Recent Turkish Literature on the Analysis of Turkish Society: 1980 to the present .................................................................................................. 131 2.8 NON-SCHOLARLY LITERATURE ON TURKISH SOCIETY, ECONOMY, AND POLITICS ......................................................................................................... 136 2.9 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 138 Chapter 3 Theoretical Framework, Methodology and Methods ............... 140 3.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 140 3.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK, RESEARCH STRATEGY AND RESEARCH ORIENTATIONS ............................................................................................... 140 3.2.1 Theoretical Framework and Research Strategy ............................... 140 3.2.1.1 Lipset and Rokkan’s Cleavage Structure and the Development of the Turkish Party System ........................................................................................ 142 3.2.1.2 The Centre-Periphery Relations Model, Evolution of Turkey’s Social Structure and Development of the AKP............................................................ 152 3.2.2 Methodology and Research Orientations ......................................... 155 3.3 METHODS ................................................................................................. 159 3.3.1 Semi-structured In-depth Interviews ................................................. 159 3.3.2 Archival Research Method ................................................................ 165 3.3.3 Analysis of Quantitative Data and Reliability of Data ..................... 167 3.4 ETHICAL ISSUES ........................................................................................ 168 3.5 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 171 3 Chapter 4 Social Bases of the AKP ........................................................ 172 4.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 172 4.2 THE PLANNED ECONOMY, AGRARIAN VOTERS AND THE SINGLE-PARTY REGIME: 1923-1950 ....................................................................................... 173 4.2.1 Planned Economy and Agrarian Society .......................................... 173 4.2.2 Agrarian Voters and Single-Party Regime ....................................... 179 4.3 AGRICULTURAL MECHANISATION, PEASANTS’ DISSATISFACTION AND THE EMERGENCE OF A TWO-PARTY SYSTEM: 1950-1960 ...................................... 183 4.3.1 Economic Developments ................................................................... 183 4.3.2 Changes in the Socio-economic Structures ...................................... 185 4.3.3 Socio-Economic Changes as Reflected in Politics and in Voting Behaviour ................................................................................................... 190 4.4 EARLY INDUSTRIALISATION (IMPORT-SUBSTITUTION INDUSTRIALISATION), THE URBAN WORKING CLASS AND MULTI-PARTY POLITICS: 1960-1980 ....... 193 4.4.1 Economic Developments ................................................................... 193 4.4.2 Changes in the Socio-economic Structures ...................................... 194 4.4.3 Socio-economic Changes as Reflected in Politics and in Voting Behaviour ................................................................................................... 197 4.5 EXPORT-LED GROWTH ECONOMIC MODEL, EMERGENCE OF NEW INTERMEDIARY STRATA AND RISE OF THE AKP IN 2002 ................................ 203 4.5.1 The Economic
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