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Population Dynamics, Climate Change and Sustainable Development In SEPTEMBER 2012 POPULATION DYNAMICS, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA Clive Mutunga Population Action International (PAI), Washington D.C., USA Eliya Zulu African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP), Nairobi, Kenya Roger-Mark De Souza Population Action International (PAI), Washington D.C., USA HEALTHY FAMILIES HEALTHY PLANET ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following staff contributed to this publication: Population Action International: Amandi Clarke, Bolatito Ogunbiyi, Danielle Zielinski, Dilly Severin, Elisha Dunn-Georgiou, Gina Rumbolo , Kaja Jurczynska, and Roberto Hinojosa. African Institute for Development Policy: James Ciera and Nyokabi Musila This study was conducted jointly by PAI and AFIDEP, with financial support from PAI’s Climate Change Initiative. The Initiative is a multi-year program of research, advocacy, and strategic communications designed to bring our experience and expertise to the complex relationships among population, gender, and climate change. This work strengthens understanding of the influence of population on climate change vulnerability, and expands the concept of climate change resilience by highlighting critical gender, fertility, and reproductive health dimensions. http://populationaction.org/topics/climate-change/ Population Action International advocates for women and families to have access to contraception in order to improve their health, reduce poverty and protect their environment. © 2012 Population Action International and African Institute for Development Policy. Contents of this and accompanying materials may be reproduced provided Population Action International is acknowledged as the source. 2 POPULATION DYNAMICS, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................3 Background .............................................................................................................................................................5 Implications of Population Growth and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in sub-Saharan Africa .......9 Implications at the Country Level: The Cases of Malawi and Kenya .....................................................................13 Policy Framework for Population, Climate Change, and Environment in Kenya and Malawi ...............................17 Coordination and Implementation Challenges in Kenya and Malawi ...................................................................19 Policy Recommendations .....................................................................................................................................21 Endnotes ...............................................................................................................................................................22 References ............................................................................................................................................................23 Annex I: Detailed Methodology and Analysis .......................................................................................................24 1 POPULATION DYNAMICS, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY region’s population dynamics, including the size, distribution and composition of its population, influence its prospects for sustainable development. Virtually all development Apolicies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) cite the region’s rapid population growth, urbanization, and age structure as major challenges. These pressures hurt efforts to reduce poverty, ensure food security, preserve the environment, and improve education, employment, and health. SSA’s population is growing more rapidly than other c) Weak technical capacity in government agencies to regions of the world. Rapid population growth and climate show the benefits of integrating population, climate change are speeding up the region’s environmental change and development goals degradation. This makes people more vulnerable to climate change impacts and undermines sustainable d) Weak technical capacity in government agencies to development on the continent. Development efforts in design integrated programs several countries in SSA are harmed by a combination of e) Lack of funding for developing and implementing high rates of population growth, high projected declines integrated programs. in agricultural production and low resilience to climate change. We classify such countries as population and This report calls on governments, donors, and civil society climate hotspots. In these hotspots, addressing population to invest more in population and climate change work, to challenges will help increase resilience to climate change, address the two issues together in policies and programs, and contribute to development goals such as better food and to build the technical capacity to develop programs and water security. and research. Ensuring women in SSA who wish to avoid pregnancy have access to family planning can reduce Despite the strong links between population and climate population pressures and reduce vulnerability to climate change, and their role in sustainable development, these change impacts. It can also help meet other development issues are not a priority in broader development policies goals, including reducing poverty and maternal mortality, and strategies. Unfortunately, population, climate change and improving education. and development are often addressed separately at policy and program levels. We conducted assessments in Kenya Joint investment in family planning and climate change and Malawi, complemented by in-depth interviews, and strategies can yield the ‘triple win’ of the United Nations found that policymakers recognize the importance of (U.N.) sustainable development framework. Reducing population issues for climate change and development. fertility rates and slowing population growth would help: However, these issues are rarely worked on together in the two countries, limiting the benefits that could result from 1. Reduce poverty by improving and expanding health, combining the two. schooling and economic opportunities The reasons for this lack of integration are: 2. Protect and manage natural resources for economic and social development a) Weak coordination and governance mechanisms for climate change 3. Reduce inequality and create greater opportunities for all. b) Lack of climate change policies or fragmented, and often conflicting, policies among various ministries 2 POPULATION DYNAMICS, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA INTRODUCTION he size, composition, and distribution of populations are part of any analysis of sustainable development challenges and opportunities. The role population and climate change T play in sustainable development is particularly critical for Africa. It is the only continent where population will continue growing beyond 2100,1 and also has the least ability to adapt to the consequences of climate change. A large number of Africa’s people live in areas susceptible to climate variation and extreme weather. Population growth is occurring most rapidly in Africa, making people more vulnerable to climate change impacts. Africa’s population will grow from 1 billion in 2010 to 2.1 billion by 2050, with growth driven by countries in SSA. There, the population will increase from 0.8 billion to 1.9 billion by 2050. Thirty-one of the 51 countries in SSA are projected to at least double their population by 2050.2 Africa’s rapid population growth stems from persistent About this Report high fertility and declines in overall mortality during the This report contributes to understanding the role of past four decades. High fertility can be largely addressed population in sustainable development by analyzing by making family planning and reproductive health population, climate change and sustainable development universally accessible to those who want it. Yet only 16 links in SSA. The report also includes a summary of percent of married women in SSA were using modern population, environment and climate change issues facing contraception in 2009, compared to the global average of Malawi and Kenya, based on detailed country assessments 56 percent. About 25 percent of women in SSA have an for the two countries. “unmet need” for family planning, meaning they want to 3 avoid pregnancy but lack effective contraception. Meeting The evidence in this report should guide African the need for family planning globally could reduce governments in setting priorities and making investments 4 unintended pregnancies by 76 percent. in sustainable development plans. This report is aimed at helping policymakers, donors, and civil society understand Most Least Developed Countries (LDCs) identified that the importance of incorporating population, family population growth makes people more vulnerable to planning and reproductive health in policies and programs climate change in their National Adaptation Programme of to address climate change and further sustainable Action (NAPAs). However, few NAPAs proposed projects development in Africa that respond to population-related vulnerability and 5 reduce high fertility, such as family planning. Unless otherwise specified,
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