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Water Quality Reconstruction From Water Quality Reconstruction from Fossil Diatoms: Applications for Trend Assessment, Model Verification, and Development of Nutrient Criteria for Lakes in Minnesota, USA Part of a series on Minnesota Lake Water Quality Assessment Diatom- Phosphorus 1990 Soil 1970 Phosphorus Erosion Fertilizer 1950 1930 1910 1890 -Sediment 1870 1850 Fossil Diatoms 1800 1750 September 2002 Water Quality Reconstruction from Fossil Diatoms: Applications for Trend Assessment, Model Verification, and Development of Nutrient Criteria for Lakes in Minnesota, USA Part of a series on Minnesota Lake Water Quality Assessment Minnesota Pollution Control Agency Environmental Outcomes Division Steven Heiskary and Ed Swain, Ph.D. September 2002 TTY (for hearing and speech impaired only): (651) 282-5332 Printed on recycled paper containing at least 10% fibers from paper recycled by consumers Acknowledgments Manuscript Review Dan Engstrom, Ph.D., St. Croix Research Station, Science Museum of Minnesota Mark Edlund, Ph.D., St. Croix Research Station, Science Museum of Minnesota Doug Hall, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency John Kingston, Ph.D., Natural Resources Research Institute, Ely Field Station Howard Markus, Ph.D., Minnesota Pollution Control Agency Lake History Contributors Cliff Aichinger, Ramsey-Washington Metro Watershed District Tom Bonde, Kandiyohi County Historical Society volunteer Tim Chimelewski, consultant Mark Doneux, Washington County Soil and Water Conservation District Bruce Gilbertson, MDNR area fishery supervisor John Hanson, Barr Engineering Jeff Lee, Minneapolis Park Board Kathy Malec, MPCA Librarian (coordinated library research) Terry Noonan, Ramsey County Public Works (coordinated efforts for Ramsey County lakes) with contributions from: cities of Little Canada, Maplewood, Roseville, Shoreview, North St. Paul, and Arden Hills Art Norton, Itasca SWCD Richard Osgood, consultant Jim Storland, City of Eagan Scott Thureen, Inver Grove Heights Hugh Valiant, MDNR area fisheries supervisor Word Processing Jan Eckart, MPCA Diatom reconstruction The actual diatom analysis, development of diatom-transfer function, and initial data analysis were conducted by Joy Ramstack (currently at Iowa State University) in fulfillment of a Master of Science Degree at Lehigh University under the direction of Dr. Sherilyn Fritz (currently at University of Nebraska). Revisions of the thesis will be published in the Journal of Paleolimnology. Research Funding The Minnesota Legislature, as recommended by the Legislative Commission on Minnesota Resources (LCMR). i Water Quality Reconstruction from Fossil Diatoms: Applications for Trend Assessment, Model Verification, and Development of Nutrient Criteria for Lakes in Minnesota, USA Heiskary, S. A. and E.B. Swain. Environmental Outcomes Division, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, 520 Lafayette Road, St. Paul MN 55155 (651-296-7217) [email protected] and (651-296-7800) [email protected] Abstract Diatom reconstructions of historical phosphorus and chloride concentrations and sediment accumulation rate, based on sediment cores from 55 lakes in Minnesota, provide a unique opportunity for examining temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication, validating eutrophication models, and providing historical perspective for developing nutrient criteria. Sediment cores, obtained by a piston corer between 1995 and 1998, were sectioned and dated. Sections corresponding to 1750, 1800, 1970, and 1993 time-periods were used in this analysis. Distinct regional patterns in historic (mean of 1750 and 1800) phosphorus concentrations were evident: Northern Lakes and Forests lakes averaged 15 µg/L (± 1), North Central Hardwoods Forests lakes averaged 24 µg/L (± 2), and Western Corn Belt Plains lakes averaged 47 µg/L (± 6). Comparing these values to the recent 1990s values suggests no change in the NLF lakes (15 µg/L ± 1), but significant increases in the CHF (38 µg/L ± 5) and WCP lakes (67µg/L ±16). Comparisons were made between the historic values and two empirical models routinely used to help set in-lake phosphorus goals in Minnesota. The first model (Vighi and Chiaudani 1985), based on the morphoedaphic index, is used to predict the background phosphorus concentration of a lake. The second (MINLEAP) is an ecoregion-based model that predicts in-lake phosphorus based on morphometry, watershed area, and ecoregion characteristics (Wilson and Walker 1989). Comparisons between historic phosphorus concentrations and model predictions indicate good correspondence at model-predicted values less than about 30 µg/L. Lastly, the use of diatom-inferred values is explored as a part of Minnesota’s efforts to develop water quality standards for nutrients. ii Contents Page List of Tables .................................................................................................................iv List of Figures.................................................................................................................v List of Plates ..................................................................................................................vi List of Acronyms ..........................................................................................................vii Introduction..................................................................................................................... 1 Methods .......................................................................................................................... 2 Background..................................................................................................................... 4 Results & Discussion ......................................................................................................8 I. Temporal and Spatial Trends in Phosphorus and Chloride Concentrations and Sediment Accumulation Rates......................................... 8 II. Lake-group and Lake-specific Trend Analysis.............................................. 22 III. Comparison of Diatom-Inferred P with Empirical Model Estimates of Background P ................................................................ 70 IV. Using Diatom-inferred P as a Part of Nutrient Criteria Development..................................................................................... 76 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................. 77 References..................................................................................................................... 86 Appendices.................................................................................................................... 91 I. Study lake location, morphometry, and watershed area II. Modern-day water quality, morphometry, and watershed characteristics for ecoregion reference lakes. III. Sediment loss on ignition and accumulation rates for study lakes. iii List of Tables 1. Lake morphometry and land use comparison .............................................................7 2. Diatom-inferred P for 1750-1800 time period......................................................... 12 3. Comparison of diatom-inferred P for pre-European and modern-day by ecoregion. ....................................................................................................... 14 4. Comparison of modern-day and pre-European sediment accumulation rates for the study lakes................................................................................................................ 18 5. Voyageurs Park lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations. ........................... 24 6. North Shore lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations .................................. 25 7. Grand Rapids-area lakes shoreland development and land use. ...............................27 8. Grand Rapids-area lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations ………………28 9. Kandiyohi County lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations ........................ 37 10. Meeker County lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations..............................38 11. McLeod County lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations ............................42 12. Stearns County lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations ..............................43 13. Dakota County lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations ..............................45 14. Historical events in Chain of Lakes Watershed........................................................46 15. Calhoun and Harriet watershed history of storm sewer additions. ...........................47 16. Hennepin County lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations ..........................48 17. Actions taken in Chain of Lakes Clean Water Partnership.......................................49 18. Ramsey County lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations .............................58 19. Washington County lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations.......................64 20. Western Corn Belt Plains lakes diatom-inferred P and CL concentrations..............70 21. Comparison of IQ range of phosphorus based on MPCA reference and assessed data, EPA assessed, and DI-P for 1750-1800. .......................................77 iv List of Figures 1. Study lake locations and ecoregion map. .........................................................................5 2. Comparison of observed TP and Cl with diatom-inferred values ..................................10 3. Comparison of pre-European and 1990 diatom-inferred P. ...........................................14
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