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Evaluation of the Climate Change Impacts of Waste Incineration in the United Kingdom

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Evaluation of the Climate Change Impacts of Waste Incineration in the United Kingdom UNITED KINGDOM WITHOUT INCINERATION NETWORK Evaluation of the climate change impacts of waste incineration in the United Kingdom October 2018 (Rev 1.01: April 2019) KEY FINDINGS Based on the data and methods set out in the report, the study found that: ▶ Waste incinerators currently release an average of around 1 tonne of CO2 for every tonne of waste incinerated. ▶ The release of CO2 from incinerators makes climate change worse and comes with a cost to society that is not paid by those incinerating waste. ▶ In 2017 the UK's 42 incinerators released a combined total of nearly 11 million tonnes of CO2, around 5 million tonnes of which were from fossil sources such as plastic. ▶ The 5 million tonnes of fossil CO2 released by UK incinerators in 2017 resulted in an unpaid cost to society of around £325 million. ▶ Over the next 30 years the total cost to society of fossil CO2 released by UK's current incinerators would equate to more than £25 billion pounds of harm arising from the release of around 205 million tonnes of fossil CO2. ▶ Electricity generated by waste incineration has significantly higher adverse climate change impacts than electricity generated through the conventional use of fossil fuels such as gas. ▶ The 'carbon intensity' of energy produced through waste incineration is more than 23 times greater than that for low carbon sources such as wind and solar; as such, incineration is clearly not a low carbon technology. ▶ When waste is landfilled a large proportion of the carbon is stored underground, whereas when waste is burned at an incinerator the carbon is converted into CO2 and immediately released into the atmosphere. ▶ Over its lifetime, a typical waste incinerator built in 2020 would release the equivalent of around 1.6 million tonnes of CO2 more than sending the same waste to landfill. Even when electricity generation is taken into account, each tonne of plastic burned at that incinerator would result in the release of around 1.43 tonnes of fossil CO2. Due to the progressive decarbonisation of the electricity supply, incinerators built after 2020 would have a relatively greater adverse climate change impact. ▶ Composition analysis indicates that much of what is currently used as incinerator feedstock could be recycled or composted, and this would result in carbon savings and other environmental benefits. Thus, incinerating waste comes with a significant 'opportunity cost'. Incineration Climate Change Report 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 CO2 RELEASED BY WASTE INCINERATION ......................................................................................................... 6 Background ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 CO2 released by UK incinerators in 2017 ................................................................................................... 7 The carbon price of waste incineration ..................................................................................................... 7 Table 1: Cost to society of fossil CO2 released from UK incinerators in 2017 .............................. 9 CARBON INTENSITY OF ELECTRICITY GENERATED ........................................................................................ 10 Background ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 1: Carbon intensity of electricity (gCO2/kWh) ....................................................................... 10 Carbon intensity from non-incineration sources ................................................................................. 11 Table 2: Emissions from low carbon sources, based on life-cycle analysis .............................. 12 Fossil carbon intensity of incineration .................................................................................................... 13 Table 3: Fossil carbon intensity of energy from UK incinerators ................................................. 13 Conclusions on fossil carbon intensity .................................................................................................... 14 COMPARING INCINERATION WITH LANDFILL ................................................................................................. 16 Table 4: Feedstock composition profiles ............................................................................................ 17 Figure 2: Tonnes of CO2e released by incineration and landfill ................................................... 18 Table 5: Relative net GHG impacts from a typical incinerator compared to landfill .............. 18 RECYCLABILITY OF INCINERATOR FEEDSTOCK .............................................................................................. 20 Figure 3: Municipal waste treatment rates for councils with above-average incineration ... 20 Acknowledgements Thanks: UKWIN is grateful to the Marmot Charitable Trust for their financial support to produce this report. Cover photo: Edmonton Incinerator, November 2010 Principal author: Josh Dowen Contributors: Shlomo Dowen, Ian Hammond, Tim Hill, Neil Pitcairn, Dr John Webb Report webpage: http://ukwin.org.uk/climate Incineration Climate Change Report 2 ANNEX A: CO2 PER TONNE INCINERATED ........................................................................................................ 25 Estimates for UK waste ................................................................................................................................ 25 Waste industry estimates for specific incinerators ............................................................................. 27 Calculating CO2 emissions per tonne of waste based on published UK sources .......................... 29 Table 6: Tonnes of CO2 per tonne based on published UK sources ............................................ 29 Calculating CO2 per tonne of waste based on Environment Agency data sets ............................. 30 Table 7: CO2 per tonne based on extracts from Environment Agency 2016 data sets ............. 31 Analysis of CO2 per tonne incinerated ..................................................................................................... 32 Table 8: Cost to society of fossil CO2 from waste incineration (2019-2049) .............................. 33 ANNEX B: DATA USED TO CALCULATE INCINERATION CARBON INTENSITY ............................................. 34 ANNEX C: RELATIVE NET CARBON IMPACTS OF INCINERATION COMPARED WITH LANDFILL .............. 37 Use of Defra's Carbon based modelling approach ............................................................................... 37 Table 9: Extract from BEIS Data Table 1: 'Electricity emissions factors to 2100' ...................... 39 Table 10: Base Case - Data set and calculations for incineration half of model ..................... 45 Table 11: Base Case - Data set and calculations for landfill half of model ............................... 46 Table 12: Base Case - Biogenic carbon sequestered in landfill .................................................... 47 Table 13: Base Case - Result formulas and calculations (Tonnes CO2e) ..................................... 48 Table 14: Base Case - Results (Tonnes CO2) ....................................................................................... 48 Table 15: Reduced Plastic - Data set and calculations for incineration half of model .......... 49 Table 16: Reduced Plastic - Data set and calculations for landfill half of model .................... 50 Table 17: Reduced Plastic - Biogenic carbon sequestered in landfill ......................................... 51 Table 18: Reduced Plastic - Result formulas and calculations (Tonnes CO2e) ......................... 52 Table 19: Reduced Plastic - Results (Tonnes CO2) ............................................................................ 52 Table 20: Reduced Compostables - Data set and calculations for incineration half ............. 53 Table 21: Reduced Compostables - Data set and calculations for landfill half of model ..... 54 Table 22: Reduced Compostables - Biogenic carbon sequestered in landfill .......................... 55 Table 23: Reduced Compostables - Result formulas and calculations (Tonnes CO2e) ........... 56 Table 24: Reduced Compostables - Results (Tonnes CO2) ............................................................. 56 Incineration Climate Change Report 3 THE IMPORTANCE OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE The UK Government explains the issue as follows: Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, such as methane, in the atmosphere create a ‘greenhouse effect’, trapping the Sun’s energy and causing the Earth, and in particular the oceans, to warm. Heating of the oceans accounts for over nine-tenths of the trapped energy. Scientists have known about this greenhouse effect since the 19th Century. The higher the amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the warmer the Earth becomes. Recent climate change is happening largely as a result of this warming, with smaller contributions from natural influences like variations in the Sun’s output. Carbon dioxide levels have increased by about 45% since before the industrial revolution. Other greenhouse gases have increased by similarly large
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