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An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee

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An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee Document I ‐‐ April 2016 An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Report to National Parks Conservation Association Project Component V: Examination of a Multi‐Use Trail Model and a Water Trail Model as Examples of Impacts for Major Recreational Features by Dr. Kimberly L. Jensen ([email protected]), Mr. Jamey Menard ([email protected]), and Dr. Burton C. English AIM-AG| Agri‐Industry Modeling & Analysis Group Document I ‐‐ April 2016 DISCLAIMER This report was commissioned by the Knight Foundation. The findings and views expressed in this study are those of the authors and may not represent those of Knight Foundation, or the University of Tennessee’s Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics or the Institute of Agriculture. All models are limited and actual impacts may differ from estimated impacts. Furthermore, as new data becomes available, the results can be updated accordingly. AIM-AG| Agri‐Industry Modeling & Analysis Group Document I ‐‐ April 2016 Executive Summary A proposal to consolidate the Ocmulgee National Monument in Georgia with several other state and federal lands along the Ocmulgee River between Macon and Hawkinsville in order to establish an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve has the potential to draw visitors with a cohesive attraction providing opportunities for a variety of heritage tourism and outdoor recreational opportunities. Consolidation of these lands would create the first national park in Georgia and the first national park and preserve east of the Mississippi and could entail expansion and improvement of a water trail and a multiuse trail or trail system. An Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve could also enhance and synergize with existing community heritage resources like the Fort Hawkins living history site, and lead to the establishment of new heritage tourism facilities, like a Muscogee Creek Cultural Center and/or a Museum of the Southeastern Indian. Additionally, by focusing on the region’s history and heritage, e.g. the river’s role during the American colonial and frontier periods and the story of General Blackshear’s Line of frontier era forts, natural and recreational resources could be branded in such a way as to promote and enhance a middle Georgia regional identity that is unique, both to the state and the southeast. Noted in the literature on outdoor paddlesports, in less than ten years worldwide, trail activity (all trails (both water and land)) will be the number one activity, and for the United States in less than ten years, tourism will be the number three industry. The purpose of this document is to provide a review of parallel studies that examine how multiuse trails, water trails, and heritage tourism have impacted other areas and assess what lessons they hold. Summary points from these studies include the following: Multiuse trails can serve not only out of town visitors, but also local users who wish to hike, walk, bicycle, or view nature. o Local health benefits can accrue from local use of the trail. Some health benefits to cost ratios have been estimated at nearly 3 to 1. Environmental benefits include additional greenspace and wildlife habitat, as well as serving as transportation avenues for bicycling and walking trips. Based upon prior studies of multiuse trails: o A multiuse trail might see upwards of 3,000 annual users per mile, mostly coming from day use and local users; o Average total economic activity added per mile in 2014$ is around $70.8 thousand; o A Total Industry Output (TIO) multiplier from user expenditures might be about 1.7, hence for every million dollars in user expenditures, an additional $700,000 would be generated through multiplier effects; i Document I ‐‐ April 2016 o Expenditures on construction might be about $117/linear foot or $619,520 per mile, while with multiplier effects economic activity might be expected at about $1 million per mile; o On average, a trail might be expected to support 1 to 2 jobs per mile in the region for year to year operations, and between 8 and 10 upfront jobs per mile for construction; and o Estimated increases in property values close to trails, parks, and greenspaces (within a quarter mile) from several studies range from the 4 to 7 percent. Water trails can serve not only out of town visitors, but also local users who wish to view wildlife, potentially paddle, camp, and enjoy other outdoor activities. Health and wellness benefits can accrue from use of water trails (i.e., exercise, reduced pollution, enhanced water quality for both wildlife and humans). Additional benefits include wildlife habitat and greenspace preservation, as well as recreation and various types of education (conservation, nature, outdoor adventure, etc.). Based upon prior studies of water trails: o The average total economic activity added per mile in $2014 is around $48.7 thousand; o A TIO multiplier from user expenditures would likely be around 1.62, hence for every million dollars in user expenditures, an additional $620,000 would be generated through multiplier effects; o Based on Blair’s proposed Chattahoochee Valley Blueway Project (2012), expenditures on construction might be about $5/linear foot or $26,800 per mile, while with multiplier effects economic activity might be expected at about $40,000 per mile; and o Potentially could have a positive 8 percent influence on nearby property values (Moore and Siderelis, 2002). Heritage travelers appear to be more highly educated, stay longer, and spend more than outdoor recreation and other types of travelers. Heritage travel increased 13.0 percent between 1996 and 2002, whereas U.S. travel overall increased only 5.6 percent (Michigan State University Museum, 2016). In 2009, of the 118.3 million leisure U.S. travelers, 78.0 percent were considered heritage travelers (Michigan State University Museum, 2016). Preservation of cultural heritage can provide a sense of regional identity and pride. Investment in historical preservation results in jobs, with a million dollar investment resulting in around 30 jobs. Visitor expenditures can be around $55 per visitation. Based upon prior research studies of heritage tourism sites, for each million dollars of heritage tourism spending, about 18 jobs would be created. ii Document I ‐‐ April 2016 Contents BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................................. 1 The Ocmulgee Heritage Trail ................................................................................................................ 1 The Ocmulgee River Water Trail ......................................................................................................... 2 PREVIOUS STUDIES OF OTHER MULTI‐USE TRAILS, WATER TRAILS, AND HISTORICAL/HERITAGE TOURISM ................................................................................................... 4 I. Multi Use Trails ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Recreational Opportunities ......................................................................................................... 5 Jobs ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Economic Growth ............................................................................................................................. 7 Health and Wellness Benefits ..................................................................................................... 8 Transportation Alternatives and Environmental Benefits ............................................ 8 Property Values ................................................................................................................................ 9 Parallel Studies ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Virginia Creeper Trail (VCT) ....................................................................................................... 9 Silver Comet Trail (SCT)............................................................................................................. 10 Greenbrier River Trail (GRT) ................................................................................................... 10 Central Georgia Rails to Trails (CGRT) ................................................................................ 11 Coastal Georgia Greenway Trail (CGGT) ............................................................................. 11 Erie to Pittsburgh Trail (EPT) .................................................................................................. 11 Ecusta Rail Trail (ET) .................................................................................................................. 12 II. Water Trails ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 12 Health and Wellness ...................................................................................................................
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