DECEMBER 24 - DECEMBER 30, 2018 WEEK 52

CONTACTS The WEEKLY MONITOR

Treasury & Capital Markets ______Economy Bechara Serhal p.2 INFLATION AT A YEARLY 4.2% IN NOVEMBER (961-1) 977421 [email protected] The Consultation & Research Institute’s index of consumer prices rose by 4.2% in November 2018 compared to results of November 2017. All nine main indices registered increases this November. The Nadine Akkawi highest increase was registered by the “Education” category (6.0%), followed by the “Transportation and (961-1) 977401 Telecommunications” category (5.3%) and the “Durable Consumer Goods” category (5.0%). [email protected] Also in this issue p.3 Slowdown in the activity of the property market in first 11 months of 2018 Toufic Aouad p.4 Number of tourists up by 5.1% year-on-year in first 11 months of 2018 (961-1) 954922 [email protected] ______Surveys Corporate Banking p.5 GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS TO CONTINUE WEIGH ON LEBANON'S ECONOMY, WEAKENING GROWTH PROSPECTS, AS PER ESCWA Khalil Debs According to a report issued by the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) titled (961-1) 977229 “Survey of Economic and Social Development in the Arab Region 2017-2018”, geopolitical factors would [email protected] continue to weigh heavily on Lebanon, weakening as such the country’s economic growth prospects.

Also in this issue p.6 Expected economic recovery in 2019 to have positive impact on Lebanon’s consumer confidence in the short to medium term, says BMI Research Corporate News RESEARCH ______p.7 TOTAL ASSETS OF BANQUE LIBANO-FRANÇAISE UP BY 9.0% YEAR-TO-DATE TO US$ 14.8 BILLION AT END-SEPTEMBER 2018 Marwan Barakat Banque Libano-Française’s total assets amounted to US$ 14.8 billion at end-September 2018, up by 9.0% (961-1) 977409 from US$ 13.6 billion at end-2017, according to Bankdata . [email protected] Also in this issue Jamil Naayem p.8 Net profits of Crédit Libanais down by a yearly 6.1% in first three quarters of 2018 (961-1) 977406 [email protected] ______Markets In Brief p.9 WAIT-AND-SEE MOOD REIGNS OVER LEBANON’S CAPITAL MARKETS AMID Salma Saad Baba (961-1) 977346 DOMESTIC POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES [email protected] A prolonged cabinet formation gridlock weighed on Lebanon’s capital markets during the second half of 2018, overshadowing the positive sentiment that prevailed during the first half of the year after the Fadi Kanso ratification of the 2018 budget, holding the first Parliamentary elections in nine years and concluding (961-1) 977470 the CEDRE international conference for Lebanon. Domestic political uncertainties along with emerging [email protected] market weakness took their toll on the Lebanese Eurobond market. The weighted average yield rose by 341 bps in 2018 to reach 9.95%, falling from a peak level of 11.23% mid-September 2018. Lebanon’s five- Gerard Arabian year CDS spreads closed the year at 750 bps, up by 229 bps, after crossing above the 800 bps threshold (961-1) 964047 several times during the second half of the year. On the equity market, the BSE saw a 15% drop in prices [email protected] in 2018 amid increased price volatility, while the total turnover contracted by 38% year-on-year. Finally, the FX market saw net FC conversions amid rising domestic political tensions, while BDL’s foreign assets Farah Nahlawi reached US$ 40 billion mid-December 2018, covering 77% of LP money supply. (961-1) 959747 [email protected] LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF DECEMBER 24 - DECEMBER 30, 2018 Nivine Turyaki (961-1) 959615 [email protected]

Week 52 December 24 - December 30, 2018 1 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] DECEMBER 24 - DECEMBER 30, 2018 WEEK 52

ECONOMY ______INFLATION AT A YEARLY 4.2% IN NOVEMBER

The Consultation & Research Institute’s index of consumer prices rose by 4.2% in November 2018 compared to results of November 2017. All nine main indices registered increases this November. The highest increase was registered by the “Education” category (6.0%), followed by the “Transportation and Telecommunications” category (5.3%), the “Durable Consumer Goods” category (5.0%) and the “Other Goods and Services” category (4.5%).

The November 2018 year-on-year “Food and Beverages” index increased by 3.5% since November 2017. Two of the four main indices registered increases this month, namely those of the “Food” category (4.2%) and the “Nonalcoholic Beverages” category (2.1%). On the other hand, the other two main indices registered decreases, namely those of the “Tobacco Products” category (-5.6%) and the “Alcoholic Beverages” category (-3.2%).

The index for “Food” increased by 4.2% compared to its level last year, as six of the food group indices have witnessed increases this November. The most significant increase was registered in the “Vegetables” category (19.9%), followed by the “Fruits” category (11.6%) and the “Food Away from Home” category (9.8%). On the other hand, four categories witnessed decreases, most significantly that of the “Fish and Seafood” category (-5.0%), followed by the “Grains and Nuts” category (-4.7%) and the “Sugar and Confectioneries” category (-4.0%).

Apparel year-on-year prices registered a 3.9% increase in November 2018. This was the result of the increase in the “Clothing and Sewing Materials” category (5.1%).

The index for “Housing” increased by 2.6% in November 2018 from its level last year. This was due to the increase in the “Household Energy” category (4.0%).

The “Durable Consumer Goods” index increased by 5.0% since November 2017. Four categories have witnessed increases this November. The most significant increase was registered in the “Household Furnishings” category (33.3%), followed by the “Glassware” category (25.5%). Three categories recorded decreases in November 2018, most significantly the “Linens” category (-4.9%), followed by the “Appliances” category (-3.6%).

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (NOV-18/NOV-17)

Source: Consultation & Research Institute

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The healthcare index has increased by 3.6% since November 2017. This is due to the increases registered in two of its four main indices, namely those of the “Inpatient Services” (14.5%) and the “Medications and Medical Accessories” category (1.1%). On the other hand, the “Outpatient Services” category registered a slight decrease (-0.3%), whereas the “Health ” remained stable in November 2018.

The index for education increased by 6.0% from the previous year, due to the significant increase in the “Tuition Fees” category (8.8%). The other two main indices have witnessed decreases this November, namely those of the “Educational Books and Supplies” category (-13.7%) and the “School Transportation” category (-2.8%).

The index for recreation has slightly increased by 0.8% compared to its results in November 2017, due to the increase in the “Reading Materials and Photography” category (4.6%). The other main index of the “Movies and Restaurants” category remained unchanged this November.

The index of “Other Goods and Services” has increased by 4.5% since November 2017. This was basically due to the increase registered in the “Personal Care” category (14.1%). On the other, a sole category recorded a decrease, namely that of “Jewelry” category (-4.9%). The “Travel” and the “Financial Services” categories remained unchanged this November. ______SLOWDOWN IN THE ACTIVITY OF THE PROPERTY MARKET IN FIRST 11 MONTHS OF 2018

The statistics published by the Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre covering the first 11 months of 2018 showed that realty markets have undergone a decrease in property transactions and sales activity.

The number of sales operations retreated by a yearly 17.7% from 66,458 sales operations in the first 11 months of 2017 to 54,687 operations in the first 11 months of 2018.

PROPERTY MARKET (FIRST 11 MONTHS OF THE YEAR)

Sources: Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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Sales to foreigners fell by 13.2% year-on-year to reach 1,064 operations in the first 11 months of 2018.

The value of property sales transactions was also on a downward path in the first 11 months of 2018. It posted a decline of 18.9% year-on-year to attain a total of US$ 7,312.5 million during the first 11 months of 2018.

Most of the regions recorded declines in the value of sales transactions, with the most significant movements coming as follows: North (-29.9%), Metn (-22.9%) and Nabattiyeh (-22.3%). ______NUMBER OF TOURISTS UP BY 5.1% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN FIRST 11 MONTHS OF 2018

The latest figures released by the Ministry of Tourism showed that the number of tourists posted a 5.1% yearly increase in the first 11 months of 2018 following an increase of 10.9% posted in the same period of the previous year.

In fact, the number of tourists registered 1,801,411 in the first 11 months of 2018, compared to 1,714,812 tourists posted in the same period of 2017.

In details, and Arab countries got the lion’s share in the contribution to the number of tourists with 36.0% (648,567 tourists) and 28.4% (511,054 tourists) respectively. These were followed by tourists from America which took over a share of 18.3% (328,840 tourists). Tourists from Asia came in after with a share of 7.1% (127,963 tourists), while those of Africa followed with a share of 5.8% (104,429 tourists).

It is worth noting that tourists from most continents registered a positive performance with the highest growth coming from the European tourists that grew by a yearly 10.2%.

This was followed by an increase in American tourists by 9.0%, Oceanian tourists by 6.9% and African tourists by 4.3%, while the number of tourists from the Arab countries fell by a yearly 2.5%.

NUMBER OF TOURISTS (FIRST 11 MONTHS OF THE YEAR)

Sources: Ministry of Tourism, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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SURVEYS ______GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS TO CONTINUE WEIGH ON LEBANON'S ECONOMY, WEAKENING GROWTH PROSPECTS, AS PER ESCWA

According to a report issued by the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) titled “Survey of Economic and Social Development in the Arab Region 2017-2018”, geopolitical factors would continue to weigh heavily on Lebanon, weakening as such the country’s economic growth prospects.

According to the report, the ESCWA estimated Lebanon’s real GDP growth to pick up from 2.0% in 2017 to reach 2.6% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019.

The ESCWA report mentioned that Lebanon is expected to realize some moderate economic results associated with an improvement in the balance of payments, cross-border remittances, capital inflows, and tourist arrivals from European countries towards the end of 2018.

Furthermore, the report added that Lebanon sustained its fiscal consolidation efforts by imposing higher taxes including the corporate income tax rate and the value added tax, and by taking steps to broaden the country’s income tax base.

Not to forget to mention, the ESCWA report highlighted that the country is having a difficult time coping with the high public debt burden (155% of GDP) and interest payments (36% of total expenditure).

Also, heightened competition with Syrian refugees for unskilled jobs also worsened the conditions of the labor market in Lebanon.

Despite witnessing negative inflation rates during 2015 and 2016, partly due to a weak Euro and dwindling commodity prices, the latter jumped to 4.5% in 2017 and 5.1% in 2018, as per ESCWA.

REGIONAL SELECTED MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Sources: ESCWA, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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______EXPECTED ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN 2019 TO HAVE POSITIVE IMPACT ON LEBANON’S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM, SAYS BMI RESEARCH

According to BMI Research, an expected economic recovery in 2019 would have a positive impact on Lebanon’s consumer confidence in the short to medium term.

Furthermore, the economic recovery in GCC countries would result in an increased inflow of remittances from Lebanese citizens working in the region and bodes well for domestic consumer spending.

As a matter of fact, a recovery is expected in Lebanon's economy in 2019, with real GDP growth estimated at 2.6%, up from 2.1% in 2018. While the economic growth outlook remains positive, growth rates will remain low due to a weak business environment and structural challenges.

In parallel, political uncertainty and the lack of structural reforms would weigh on business and consumer confidence over BMI's medium term forecast period, resulting in the economy growing below its potential, as per the same source.

Private consumption in the country would remain the traditional growth driver, accounting for 82.8% of GDP as of 2016 (latest data available), as per BMI Research. Lebanon’s real private final consumption growth is expected at 3.5% in 2019, up from an estimated 2.8% in 2018.

BMI Research further expects real private final consumption to grow at an annual average of 3.9% between 2019 and 2022. The demographic boost provided by the influx of Syrian refugees, who now account for more than a quarter of the population, would help to strengthen consumption over the coming years.

Moderate inflation is anticipated in 2019, and it is forecast at 3.5%. The increase in international oil prices gained momentum in April and May 2018, which has led to the materialisation of an upside risk to the domestic inflation outlook, as per BMI Research. Currently, consumer price inflation is forecast to remain stable at 3.5% from 2019-2022.

The economic recovery in the GCC would also support inward remittances given the large number of Lebanese expatriates living in the region. Remittances accounted for 15.3% of GDP in 2017 and would further boost consumer spending, as per the report.

This would enable private consumption growth to tick up in 2019, once inflationary pressures ease. Lebanese consumers would receive substantial support from these remittances.

The expatriate community will remain an important source of external capital, which would boost household spending amid modest recovery in economic conditions.

Consumer sentiment will improve over the next few quarters on the back of supportive economic outlook, as per the report. BMI Research forecasts real growth in household spending to increase by 3.3% in 2019, up from an estimated 2.9% in 2018.

Over the medium term forecast period, BMI Research expects consumer spending to grow at an annual average of 3.8%. The risk to our consumer spending outlook stems from structural weakness in the business environment, poor public finances prompting austerity measures as well as inflationary risks from rising global oil prices.

Week 52 December 24 - December 30, 2018 6 DECEMBER 24 - DECEMBER 30, 2018 WEEK 52

CORPORATE NEWS ______TOTAL ASSETS OF BANQUE LIBANO-FRANÇAISE UP BY 9.0% YEAR-TO-DATE TO US$ 14.8 BILLION AT END-SEPTEMBER 2018

Banque Libano-Française’s total assets amounted to US$ 14.8 billion at end-September 2018, up by 9.0% from US$ 13.6 billion at end-2017, according to Bankdata Financial Services.

Deposits from customers stood at US$ 11.1 billion at end-September 2018, progressing by 1.6% from US$ 10.9 billion at end-2017. Loans to customers registered US$ 4.4 billion at end-September 2018, up by 0.6% from end-2017. Shareholders’ equity totaled US$ 1.3 billion at end-September 2018, up by 2.1% from end-2017.

The gross doubtful loans to gross loans ratio slightly inched up from 9.4% at end-2017 to 9.7% at end- September 2018. At the same time, the loan loss reserves on doubtful loans to doubtful loans ratio fell to reach 83.5% at end-September 2018.

Banque Libano-Française posted net profits of US$ 91.7 million in the first nine months of 2018, down by a yearly 1.2% from US$ 92.9 million registered in the corresponding period of 2017.

The bank’s net interest income attained US$ 184.5 million in the first nine months of 2018, progressing by 31.4% year-on-year from US$ 140.4 million in the first three quarters of 2017.

Net fee and commission income fell by 4.0% year-on-year from US$ 28.7 million in the first three quarters of 2016 to US$ 27.6 million in the corresponding period of this year.

Total operating income rose by an annual 8.1% to stand at US$ 220.1 million in the first nine months of 2018. This was accompanied by a 4.8% yearly increase in total operating expenses, which amounted to US$ 100.5 million in the first nine months of 2018, up from US$ 95.9 million in the same period of last year.

BANQUE LIBANO FRANÇAISE'S MAJOR BALANCE SHEET AGGREGATES (US$ BILLION)

Sources: Bankdata Financial Services, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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______NET PROFITS OF CRÉDIT LIBANAIS DOWN BY A YEARLY 6.1% IN FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2018

Net profits of Crédit Libanais stood at US$ 54.2 million in the first three quarters of 2018, falling from US$ 57.7 million in the same period of the previous year.

The bank’s net interest income attained US$ 132.1 million in the first three quarters of 2018, declining by 3.6% from US$ 137.1 million in the same period of 2017. Net fee and commission income rose by 9.5%, to US$ 31.7 million in the corresponding period of 2018.

Total operating income contracted by 3.3% to reach US$ 173.1 million in the first three quarters of 2018. This was accompanied by a 3.9% yearly growth in total operating expenses, which amounted to US$ 101.8 million in the first three quarters of 2018, up from US$ 98.0 million in the same period of 2017.

Among the latter category, staff expenses grew by 3.3% year-on-year to reach US$ 61.5 million in the first three quarters of 2018, and administrative and other operating expenses edged up by 5.7% from US$ 31.9 million in the first three quarters of 2017 to US$ 33.7 million in the same three quarters of 2018.

The cost-to-income ratio rose from 54.4% in the first nine months of 2017 to 58.4% in the same period of 2018.

The bank’s total assets amounted to US$ 12.3 billion at end-September 2018, up by 6.2% from end-2017. Deposits from customers stood at US$ 9.4 billion at end-September 2018, rising by 0.9% from US$ 9.3 billion at end-2017. Loans to customers registered US$ 3.4 billion at end-September 2018, down by 1.9% from end-2017.

CRÉDIT LIBANAIS' NET PROFITS (US$ MILLION)

Sources: Bankdata Financial Services, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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CAPITAL MARKETS ______MONEY MARKET: OVERNIGHT RATE SLIDES TO 10% ON RISING CABINET FORMATION BETS

The overnight rate closed at 10% on Friday after reaching 75% during this week, mainly on improved sentiment on the money market amid rising bets on government formation. As to Certificates of Deposits, the Central Bank of Lebanon sold LP 25 billion in the 45-day category and LP 1 billion in the 60-day category, bringing year-to-date total subscriptions in both categories to LP 1,360 billion.

The latest monetary aggregates released by the Central Bank of Lebanon showed that total resident banking deposits saw further contractions over the week ending 6th of December 2018, falling by LP 188 billion, mainly due to a LP 844 billion drop in total LP resident deposits amid a LP 575 billion contraction in LP saving deposits and a LP 269 billion decline in LP demand deposits, while foreign currency deposits rose by LP 656 billion (the equivalent of US$ 435 million). Yet, the total money supply in its largest sense (M4) expanded by LP 152 billion over the covered week, amid a LP 384 billion growth in the currency in circulation and a LP 44 billion retreat in the non-banking sector Treasury bills portfolio.

On a cumulative basis, total resident deposits grew by LP 2,749 billion since the beginning of 2018, amid a LP 4,942 billion growth in FC deposits (the equivalent of US$ 3,278 million) and a LP 2,193 billion contraction in total LP deposits.

INTEREST RATES

Source: Bloomberg

______TREASURY BILLS MARKET: LARGE NOMINAL SURPLUS EXCEEDING LP 11,000 BILLION IN 2018

Total subscriptions in LP Treasury bills amounted to circa LP 28,460 billion over the year 2018, mainly helped by a series of subscriptions made by the Central Bank of Lebanon between June 14 and November 8, 2018 for a total of LP 8,250 billion at a yield of 1% in the three-year, five-year, seven-year and ten-year categories. This comes within the context of May 2018 swap operations, through which the Central Bank of Lebanon exchanged the equivalent of US$ 5.5 billion of LP Treasury bills in its LP securities portfolio with newly-issued Eurobonds, while subscribing in LP Tbs at 1% interest rate.

Also, the Treasury bills market saw in December 2018 the issuance of the 15-year category at a coupon of 10.5% and the issuance of the 10-year category at 10.00%, noting that the Central Bank of Lebanon has allowed banks to subscribe in both issues in cash or by discounting LP Certificates of Deposits and LP time saving deposits held at BDL. The subscriptions in both issues when added to LP 8,250 billion related to swap operations, resulted into a total of LP 10,454 billion, accounting for circa 37% of total subscriptions in Tbs over the year 2018. On the other hand, maturities totaled circa LP 16,768 billion in 2018, resulting into a nominal surplus of LP 11,691 billion as compared to a lower nominal surplus of LP 7,444 billion in 2017.

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TREASURY BILLS

Sources: Central Bank of Lebanon, Bloomberg ______FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: NET CONVERSIONS TO FOREIGN CURRENCY ON THE FX MARKET IN 2018

The foreign exchange market saw net foreign currency conversions in 2018, mainly on reduced sentiment amid a prolonged cabinet formation deadlock. This called the Central Bank of Lebanon to intervene on the currency trading market as a seller of the US dollar.

BDL’s foreign assets declined by US$ 2 billion between end-2017 and 15th of December 2018 to reach US$ 40.0 billion. The drop is mainly attributed to a US$ 1,025 million bond redemption on November 12, 2018 and a € 445 million bond redemption on November 18, 2018, in addition to LP-to-FC conversions amid heightened domestic political uncertainties. Accordingly, BDL’s foreign assets covered 76.8% of LP money supply mid-December 2018, which is almost two times the average of reserve adequacy in similarly-rated countries. EXCHANGE RATES

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department ______STOCK MARKET: PRICE DROPS IN LEBANESE EQUITIES IN 2018 AMID CABINET FORMATION GRIDLOCK

The Stock Exchange, which suffers from a lack of efficiency and liquidity, traced a downward trajectory in 2018, as shown by a 14.60% slump in the price index to close at 83.87, amid lingering cabinet formation uncertainties and despite attractive market pricing ratios. The Lebanese equities traded at a P/E of 5.1 times in 2018 as compared to a much higher P/E of 14.0 times in the MENA region. 18 out of 27 listed stocks registered price drops, while four stocks posted price gains and five stocks saw no price Week 52 December 24 - December 30, 2018 10 DECEMBER 24 - DECEMBER 30, 2018 WEEK 52

change in 2018.

Equity prices falls in 2018 were coupled by increased price volatility, as the latter, measured by the ratio of the standard deviation in prices to the mean of prices reached 7.1%, as compared to 4.0% in 2017. Amid significant price drops, the BSE market capitalization fell by 13.8% year-on-year to reach US$ 9,117 million at end-2018. The BSE total trading value reached US$ 376 million in 2018 as compared to US$ 608 million in 2017, down by 38.1%. The banking shares captured 63.4% of activity, followed by Solidere shares with 29.4% and the industrial and trading shares with 7.2%.

That being said, the BSE total turnover ratio, measured by the annual trading value to market capitalization, continued to lag way behind regional, emerging markets and global turnover ratios, reaching 4.1% in 2018 as compared to 5.8% in 2017.. AUDI INDICES FOR BSE

______Sources: , Bank Audi’s Group Research Department BOND MARKET: PRICE FALLS ON CABINET UNCERTAINTIES AND TRACKING EMERGING MARKET WEAKNESS

The Eurobond market saw sharp price falls and significant expansions in spreads in 2018, amid a net international selling and a lack of domestic bid. This came within the context of a prolonged cabinet formation gridlock and rising concerns over an extended cabinet stalemate that could hinder the implementation of CEDRE resolutions and leave a negative impact on Lebanon’s economic and financial outlook. Also, Lebanese bond prices tracked weakness in emerging markets in 2018, mainly triggered by rising fears about a global economic slowdown amid deepened US-China trade war and worries about its impact on the international trade growth.

Under these conditions, the weighted average bond yield increased by 341 bps in 2018 to reach 9.95% at the end of the year. Concurrently, the weighted average bid Z-spread expanded by 300 bps to reach 764 bps. As to the cost of insuring debt, Lebanon’s five-year CDS spreads expanded from 521 bps at end-2017 to 750 bps at end-2018, in a sign of a reduced market perception for sovereign risks at large.

EUROBONDS INDICATORS

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department Week 52 December 24 - December 30, 2018 11 DECEMBER 24 - DECEMBER 30, 2018 WEEK 52

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INDICATORS

Sources: Bloomberg, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

______DISCLAIMER

The content of this publication is provided as general information only and should not be taken as an advice to invest or engage in any form of financial or commercial activity. Any action that you may take as a result of information in this publication remains your sole responsibility. None of the materials herein constitute offers or solicitations to purchase or sell securities, your investment decisions should not be made based upon the information herein.

Although Bank Audi sal considers the content of this publication reliable, it shall have no liability for its content and makes no warranty, representation or guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness.

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