Our Journeys Published 17 September 2019

By Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group Analyst, South Caucasus

A Listening Tour of the Azerbaijani Front Lines

A new communication channel has sparked the early 1990s resulting in a loss of Azerbai- hope for negotiations between jani control. I’ll visit the Azerbaijani army units and over Nagorno-Karabakh. But stationed along the Line of Contact, as well as as Crisis Group Analyst Zaur Shiriyev found military installations along the international talking to Azerbaijani soldiers and villagers Armenia-Azerbaijan border. My trip will last living near the front, decades of conflict mean five days. that the path to peace will be rocky. The Nagorno-Karabakh war was one of the bloodiest ethnic conflicts to erupt after the – I am standing among the mourners at ’s demise. Moscow had placed the grave of my friend Eldar’s mother, who died the majority-Armenian region, which was also suddenly of cancer. She was born in Fizuli, a home to hundreds of thousands of , town controlled by Armenian forces since the under the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic’s 1994 ceasefire with Azerbaijan. Eldar’s mother administration. The war, which lasted from fled her home in 1993, along with many others. 1992 to 1994, ended with Nagorno-Karabakh Several of these other displaced people have and seven adjacent districts wholly or partially come to pay their respects, and though many controlled by Armenian forces. The conflict of them have lived in Baku for decades, they forced more than a million people from their retain a deep connection to their place of origin: homes, including Azerbaijanis from throughout when I arrive at the mosque for the ceremony, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent all I have to say is “the one from Fizuli” before territories, and Armenians from throughout the caretaker points me in the right direction. Azerbaijan. Years of negotiations after the 1994 His mother’s last wish, Eldar tells me, was to be ceasefire led nowhere. Fighting broke out again buried in her native town. That’s not possible in April 2016, followed by more diplomatic – Azerbaijan lost control of that territory more deadlock. than 25 years ago and remains at loggerheads Of late, however, hope of progress has risen with Armenia seeking to recover it – but I tell slightly, thanks to political changes in Armenia. Eldar I’m going to the front lines in the coming These began with an April 2018 popular revolt days, so I’ll carry her wish with me. that toppled the long-time leader in Yerevan, I have a rare opportunity to see the Arme- leading to elections and a new prime minister, nian-Azerbaijani conflict’s realities up close. . In a real breakthrough four With a long-awaited permit from the Azer- months after the uprising, Armenian and Azer- baijani Ministry of Defence, I’ll be touring the baijani leaders meeting in the Tajikistani capital Azerbaijani side of the Line of Contact around of Dushanbe agreed to create a communication Nagorno-Karabakh, the territory over which channel at the Line of Contact to reduce the risk Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a brutal war in of accidental escalation and build confidence. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 17 SEPTEMBER 2019

In January, the two countries’ foreign ministers “ The phrase “preparing the met in Paris where each agreed to take on the populations for peace” has been task of “preparing the population for peace”. At Eldar’s mother’s burial, the mourners circulating among Armenians and from Fizuli start asking me questions when Azerbaijanis [...] but no one has they hear where I’m going. They get contradic- explained what it means, leaving tory reports about the conflict. One day, the it open to interpretation.” media tells them that Pashinyan is eager to make peace; the next day, the same outlets call for more war. The mourners’ confusion drives and Azerbaijan now have a player among the home to me how badly people on both sides of world’s top ten. The Armenian is Levon Aro- the conflict need reliable, unbiased informa- nian, symbol of a new generation; the Azer- tion. That kind of reporting is lacking in local baijani is Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, whom his languages. compatriots call a “shah” or king. In chess, the I meet the Defence Ministry’s spokesman for two countries have long maintained a sharp a last briefing before my journey. He tells me rivalry, as they now do on the battlefield, but that ceasefire violations at the Line of Contact without the lethal consequences. These days, have fallen dramatically since the Dushanbe no Armenian or Azerbaijani player visits the meeting. A violation can be anything from a other’s country to match wits. single shot to a one-minute volley. The Azerbai- The corps commander in , a middle- janis publish a tally every day: from September aged colonel, expresses some optimism regard- 2018 to 2 April 2o19, the total is 5,018. During ing prospects for peace. A few months before the same time span in previous years, the num- my trip, the Azerbaijani state border service ber was 10,000 or higher. My trip, however, took over a short stretch of the international coincides with an uptick in violations, begin- border – from Kazakh to Aghstafa – from the ning after an Azerbaijani soldier’s death on 26 army. The colonel sees this as a positive step. “If March. At the end of our meeting, the spokes- you give control over the border to the bor- man assigns an officer to accompany me on my der service”, he says, “it means that you don’t trip, a major named Ramin. A man of modest want war in this particular place”. Regardless, demeanour in his thirties, Ramin represents the wartime restrictions still apply at this section of army’s best and brightest. the border. Anyone seeking to visit the villages there – including journalists and researchers “Preparing the population for peace” – must get special permission from the govern- After a five-hour drive, we arrive in Shamkir, ment, as I did. The process takes months, which where an army corps is situated. In order to could be one reason why the Azerbaijani public visit the military positions on the international lacks information about the front and the opin- border with Armenia, we have to talk with the ions of their compatriots who live there. corps commander. But the colonel soon tempers his optimism, Entering the city, I see posters advertising commenting that is it is hard to imagine “pre- a chess tournament in which grandmasters paring the population for peace”, as politicians including world champion Magnus Carlsen on both sides have pledged to do. “People in faced off against Azerbaijani internally dis- border villages witness first-hand every loss and placed (IDP) schoolchildren. The tournament every small move”, he says. Only those living was held in memory of Vugar Gashimov, an near the front lines in Azerbaijan and Armenia Azerbaijani grandmaster who was ranked sixth fully grasp the importance of reductions or in the world at his peak and died in 2014. No surges in ceasefire violations. More than anyone Armenian competed, though both Armenia residing in the safety of capital cities, they know INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 17 SEPTEMBER 2019

Road sign shows Jojug Mercanli and also Armenian controlled territories, and Nagorno Karabakh itself. Jojug Mercanli, . CRISISGROUP/Zaur Shiriyev

the fear of being shot or their kid being killed by army’s role. He may have institutional interests a sniper while coming home from school. Only as well as patriotic sentiment at heart. they know the relief when the fear lessens. But In Azerbaijan, the government has spent the locals have also lived through lulls in the heavily on modernising the army, buying $10 shooting before. They know it usually restarts. billion in arms from Russia and Israel just in The phrase “preparing the populations for the last decade. The army’s stature has grown peace” has been circulating among Armenians considerably since 2016, when for the first and Azerbaijanis since the two foreign minis- time in the war it made some battlefield gains, ters’ January meeting. But no one has explained convincing more of the population that the lost what it means, leaving it open to interpreta- territories could be recouped through military tion. Some analysts think it indicates bilateral means. Since then, the government has upped agreement to move quickly toward resolving its military spending again. It will be difficult the conflict; others see it as public relations, a for the army – and the country – to shift gears if way of delaying negotiations while giving the and when peace comes. impression that they’re on the right track. I am not shocked to hear a front-line officer Better food, better discipline voicing the latter opinion. For years, the socie- The colonel grants us permission to visit the ties in both countries have cast the respective military posts under his command, and we armies as champions of national security. With head for the highlands of Gadabay. It’s April, memories of the April 2016 fighting still fairly but it’s still cold and snow lies on the ground. fresh, the words “preparing the populations We arrive at a place called Nova Saratovka to for peace” might sound to the colonel’s ears as meet the brigade commander. Ethnic Russians though they diminish the importance of the from Saratov, a town on the Volga River, settled INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 17 SEPTEMBER 2019 this area in the mid-19th century; the villagers served. The officers I speak to credit the defence were known as “milk drinkers” for their refusal minister appointed in 2013. During his tenure, to observe Orthodox Christian fasts. Most of the ministry has digitised the conscription the Russians left during the 1992-1994 war, system, which, by limiting opportunities for however, and today only Azerbaijanis live here. manipulation, has made it harder for those who Soldiers are everywhere. can afford it to bribe their way out of service. At the first post in Nova Saratovka, the The new minister has also worked to reduce the soldiers show us their barracks. They serve us number of non-combat deaths due to hazing, tea and ask me to compare their food to what which was widespread before he took office. In I ate during my military service ten years ago early 2013, before his appointment, thousands (Azerbaijan mandates military service for all poured into the streets of Baku to protest haz- able-bodied males at the age of eighteen). My ing under the slogan, “No more dead soldiers”. expectations are low. The army delivers rations Lastly, he has helped the army hone its fighting to these outlying locales only once every six skills by hiring contractors to perform non-mil- months. I remember media reporting in 2013 itary duties like cooking and cleaning on base. and earlier about low-ranking officials selling The new minister has not solved all the army’s rations for extra money rather than distributing problems: media reports still suggest some them at the front. But when I taste the food, I hazing and bribery to avoid service. But these have to admit that it’s incomparably better than phenomena appear to be far less common than what I had eaten a decade earlier. One soldier, in the past. pointing to the olive oil and canned fish, says he Here in remote Gadabay, the army’s pro- never enjoyed such fare as a civilian. fessionalisation is noticeable. The new gen- Though I only visit part of the front line, eration of officers, made up of men like my army morale seems better than it was when I guide Ramin, appear far superior to their

Gadabay military positions, Gülüstan fortress. Gadabay District, Nagorno Karabakh. CRISISGROUP/Zaur Shiriyev INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 17 SEPTEMBER 2019

predecessors in both knowledge of military the Armenian defence minister, Davit Tonoyan. tactics and the techniques of command. In Speaking to an Armenian diaspora audience the early 1990s, when Azerbaijan established in New York, Tonoyan said he had “reformu- its own standing army, there were few such lated” the longstanding concept of “territories professional officers. The Soviets had routinely for peace” to “new territories in the event of a assigned Azerbaijanis to construction battalions new war”. He meant that the Armenian side and given them minimal military training. will advance into lands it does not now control I am pleasantly surprised to see other if it feels threatened by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani improvements. Conscripts eat the same food politicians have long seen the Armenian side’s that the officers do – jam, cheese and a deli- withdrawal from areas it now controls as the cious, hot bread that wards off the cold – sitting necessary prelude to any lasting settlement. The at tea tables that are set close together. Later, commander thus perceives Tonoyan’s rhetoric as I chat with soldiers about the conditions in as aggressive. Armenians, however, perceive their unit, I ask one quiet young man from the statements by Azerbaijani military leaders as mountainous region if he would like to equally threatening. For instance, the Azerbai- say something. “A few days ago, I celebrated my jani defence minister Zakir Hasanov said, “If birthday”, he replies shyly. “My family couldn’t the Armenians go on the offensive, I’ll have the reach me here, for obvious reasons, but I got chance to meet Tonoyan in Yerevan”. a call from the general of the army corps, who At my next stop in Gadabay, I find the same wished me a happy birthday”. I am astounded. sense of determination to fight on. The com- No top commander would have made such a mander allows me to ask the soldiers questions gesture in my day. about the peace process. A young man named Elnur from Baku says he doesn’t believe in Talking politics conflict resolution. “No one will give back our At my first stop in Nova Saratovka, the officers territories peacefully”, he declares. I am sure try to avoid discussions about the Nagorno- that Elnur is saying what the officers want him Karabakh peace process and are more comfort- to say. But I don’t know what he really thinks: able talking about how to conduct the war. They the soldiers treat me as if I am an international would rather point out what they believe to be inspector of army morale, and they are careful Armenia’s weaknesses than their own. They try not to send the wrong political message. I rec- out an argument I will hear frequently on my ognise the mindset. I thought much the same trip – that Armenia is economically incapable of way in my army days. waging a long war, should major combat erupt Other soldiers give clipped answers. But it is again. They cite Azerbaijan’s burgeoning mili- clear they are well informed about the Arme- tary budget and weapons spending. But Arme- nian-Azerbaijani negotiations. They say they nia has been modernising its army as well. De watch the television news daily and read digests facto Nagorno-Karabakh forces – loyal to the prepared by officers of politicians’ speeches and local Armenian self-declared entity – control interviews, as well as articles about the peace most of the mountain heights, strategic posi- process, all in Azerbaijani. The commander says tions that are more important than armaments. the army distributes these materials to shield The commander interrupts the conversa- the conscripts from outside propaganda. tion to ask my opinion of a speech in March by Up close and impersonal “ The Armenian side will advance Army life may have changed since my time in uniform, but what hasn’t changed is the regu- into lands it does not now control lar shooting across the front lines. In Tovuz, if it feels threatened by Azerbaijan.” to the north west of Shamkir, the fighting is INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 17 SEPTEMBER 2019 more intense – or perhaps the officers are more In 1813, Russia and Persia concluded their war candid about it – than in Gadabay. Part of it is at Gulustan’s fortress, signing a treaty that sheer proximity: from the village of , I divided Azerbaijan in two. One half is now can see the Armenian troops’ positions. Seven the independent nation and the other is part Azerbaijani villages are nearby – Alibayli is of Iran, where millions of Azerbaijanis live. 600m and Agbulag 800m from the front – and Ironically, the fortress itself is now divided, all are vulnerable to rifle fire. controlled partly by Azerbaijani troops and The local commander, Emil, says he has partly by Armenian forces. It is one of the most seen a decrease in ceasefire violations since dangerous places along the Line of Contact. the Dushanbe agreement. At night, however, Nonetheless, I have high hopes of seeing “Armenian soldiers shoot toward our posi- marvellous sights – Gulustan translates liter- tion just to show us they are here”. It’s a sort ally as “rose garden”. I sense it could become a of unspoken language – “don’t dare cross the major tourist attraction. But upon arrival I can line” – used in any conflict where mere tens of view the fortress only from atop a nearby hill. metres separate the sides. Azerbaijani soldiers The Armenian surveillance cameras make it do it, too. Every day the soldiers peer at each dangerous to get closer. The castle itself is only other across the front, but they never speak, an abandoned hulk with a few of its towers left much less learn their counterparts’ names. This standing. According to the officers, the Arme- language has historically had strict and ruthless nians installed the surveillance cameras after rules: if a soldier is killed on one side, the other the April 2016 war; they say they know exactly side can expect to suffer a loss the next day. where every one of them is. Gulustan is also Yet when I ask another officer about the one of the front-line locations that the Organi- rules of engagement for Azerbaijani forces after zation for Security and Co-operation in Europe the Dushanbe agreement, I hear a somewhat visits on occasion as part of its limited monitor- different response. An officer says there are ing role. three: first, no shooting at Armenian residen- The soldiers here take a dimmer view of tial areas; secondly, no artillery; and thirdly, peace prospects than their comrades at the no heavy return fire unless the Armenian side international border. The reason, according to mounts an attack meant to overrun Azerbai- one officer, is that “we are not shooting at their jani positions. The officer swears that “on the position, yet they are carrying out engineer- president’s orders” his unit has never exceeded ing works to strengthen it”. They feel power- these instructions. If an Armenian sniper kills less to stop the Armenian side from digging in. or wounds an Azerbaijani soldier, he always Before the Dushanbe agreement, more regular awaits orders from his superiors before he exchanges of fire helped them slow the Arme- reacts. (Previously, front-line commanders had nians’ projects. I later learn that the Armenian more leeway to determine the response them- soldiers similarly suspect Azerbaijani troops of selves.) Risks of civilian casualties are too high using breaks in the fighting to reinforce their for both sides if a firefight breaks out over every positions. gunshot. Back in , I meet the middle-aged colonel who commands the nearby units, The rose garden including the one in Gulustan. He shares his From Tovuz we head south to the Line of Con- subordinates’ scepticism about the ceasefire. tact for a few days. We arrive first in the Goran- A number of Turkish- and English-language boy region. books on military history in his office catch my I’m looking forward to one Goranboy desti- eye. I notice one of his volumes, Ian Morris’s nation in particular, Gulustan. Every Azerbai- 2014 book War: What Is It Good For?, which jani knows the village’s historical significance. I know contains the line “war makes the state INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 17 SEPTEMBER 2019 and the state makes peace”. It’s essentially an that people in Tapqaraqoyunlu do not seem to excursus of Thomas Hobbes’ reasoning in Levi- feel that they are in the firing line – at least not athan that the rise of a strong central authority imminently. They are renovating their homes, tempered a state of nature that was a war of all saying “the danger is far away”, though they’re against all. Morris argues that violent deaths aware that war could return to destroy the vil- globally have declined over five thousand lage again. years (albeit with peaks and valleys) as central government has become stronger and spread to Peace and justice more places. I wonder during my conversation From Goranboy, we go further south to Bey- with the colonel which passage of the book he lagan, where I meet another colonel. He’s in finds most compelling. a hurry, so we talk as we walk. He asks about my organisation’s purpose. I repeat the tag- The April 2016 war line printed on my Crisis Group business card: From Goranboy we go to nearby military posts “Preventing war, shaping peace”. He stops bunched together, all operating surveillance abruptly. “Where is the justice in peace, if it cameras. There are two Azerbaijani villages in makes us surrender?” While I believe that both this district, Qazaxlar and Tapqaraqoyunlu. The peace and justice are attainable, I see his point. first has been abandoned since the 1990s, but Peace and justice are abstractions, and when it people still live in the second. Both were sites of comes to Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijanis and heavy fighting in April 2016. Armenians have very different understandings The villagers show me the trenches where of the terms. For Azerbaijanis, the return of Armenian soldiers were dug in before fighting territories to Azerbaijani control and displaced broke out three years ago. Local media said this Azerbaijanis to their homes is the foundation “Ohanyan line”, named after Armenia’s former of peace and justice. For Armenians, justice defence minister Seyran Ohanyan, was sup- for the area’s Armenian population – their posed to be impregnable. But the officers here self-determination and security – is the key say proudly, “We crossed it in eighteen min- to peace. Given these contrasting stances, it is utes”. From here, I can see the village of Talish, perhaps not surprising that in more than 25 where another 2016 battle took place. The com- years, negotiators have yet to find a formula mander explains that only a few of its houses that meets everyone’s definition. For peace, light up at night, suggesting that Armenian everyone may have to give up some of what they officers, rather than civilians, bunk there. After see as justice. Talish comes Mataghis (Madağiz), located on From , we head further south west the main road to Martakert, a major town. Cap- to the end of the Line of Contact. A military turing this road would allow Azerbaijan to open post sits there, at the entrance to the village of the gorge leading to the Armenian-populated Jojug Mercanli. A poster-sized map shows the areas of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Mataghis village and the distance from it to other places also sits near the dam holding the Sarsang res- in Nagorno-Karabakh. Before the April 2016 ervoir, the only source of water for the , war, only one family lived here, but now there Aghdam and Barda regions of Azerbaijan. are 150 houses and a school under construction, As I talk to the commander about resolv- with many children already in its playground. ing the conflict, he says: “Hold on. Answer my The villagers have built a replica of a mosque question: if they are preparing to give back in , the city some call “the Azerbaijani our territories through peace, why are they Jerusalem”. Shusha – a cultural centre and strengthening their military positions?” He musical hub within Nagorno-Karabakh – has a adds that renewed artillery fire would destroy special place in Azerbaijani history and identity. Tapqaraqoyunlu in a minute. The good news is The city’s mosques, especially Yukhari Govhar INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 17 SEPTEMBER 2019

Jojug Mercanli, Alakhanli, Fuzuli. CRISISGROUP/Zaur Shiriyev

Agha and Ashagi Govhar Agha, are symbols of Leaving Jojug Merjanli, we move on to its importance. Lalatapa, a strategic hilltop now under Azer- My childhood memories of the day Azerbai- baijani control. The military sees regaining it as jan lost Shusha in 1992 are still vivid. I recall the biggest success of the April 2016 escalation. one old man weeping because Armenian forces When we arrive, the post commander says I had captured the city. Looking at the replica have twenty seconds, no more, to take photos mosque in Jojug Mercanli, I remember when, of the Armenian positions, because we are in the year before, on 20 November 1991, an Azer- sniper range. While we were on the road, he had baijani helicopter carrying a peace mission – received a warning not to allow any civilian – Azerbaijani, Kazakh and Russian officials set to me, in other words – to look out from the posi- discuss an early end to fighting – was shot down tion. He opens the window, and I snap a few in Nagorno-Karabakh. The crash, I believe, shots. Flowers bloom on the hillside, portend- altered the conflict’s trajectory – and maybe ing spring, if not an end to hostilities. that of Azerbaijan itself. At the time, there may I return home with a better understand- have been a chance of resolving the conflict ing of why it will be hard to bring peace to without further bloodshed. But it was not to be. Nagorno-Karabakh any time soon. It’s no One of the dead was Ismet Gayibov, the public wonder that people living along the front lines prosecutor general and my father’s colleague. doubt all the talk of “preparing the population He was a remarkable man, an intellectual of for peace”. Ceasefires are welcome to everyone, strong character. In a single incident, the coun- but without substantive movement in the nego- try lost several such high-quality politicians and tiations, this phrase makes little sense to people thinkers only a month after it regained inde- who experience conflict and its consequences pendence. every day. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 17 SEPTEMBER 2019

My friend Eldar, whose mother’s funeral I the conflict have their own aspirations, felt as attended before my trip, is in his late twenties keenly as we feel ours. and works on a Nagorno-Karabakh peacebuild- If greater empathy is critical, finding a ing project. He believes that peace requires path forward everyone can live with requires genuine empathy between the two nations. the two sides to talk to each other. If the two As Eldar’s mother’s dying wish reminds me, governments can take advantage of the thaw in the hundreds of thousands of IDPs still long relations between Baku and Yerevan to pursue to return to where they came from. My main negotiations, there might be some hope, even takeaway from this trip and past trips to the if slim, that fewer mothers, whether Armenian front lines is how easy it is to forget the impera- or Azerbaijani, will be buried with their wishes tive of empathy and that Armenians affected by unfulfilled.

Map of Nagorno-Karabakh