Automatically generated rough PDF by ProofCheck from River Valley Technologies Ltd ihpaeeit otoln o otataiteooy raigti lie orlto scua Dfe& 2018). (Dafoe Dafoe, causal & as Ray 2013; correlation Ray, claimed 2013; Russett, this & democracy treating Oneal, economy, of Dafoe, correlation contractualist 2013; a for Russett, that controlling assert mainly exists Defenders peace Instead, peace. with cause could democracy how for rights theory human and 2017), Meierrieks, (Enia, & capacity Krieger state 2013; 2016), 2018). Chacha, Daube, Moorthy, mul- & & & in (Powell (Wright (Boehmer scholars coups compound terrorism military by international 2012), corroborated of Meierrieks, been 2015; areas has the which and including economic peace, domains, how and tiple identifies democracy that both theory by explain 2013a;Mousseau, predicted can was Mousseau, outcome type & This 2018). Orsun, becomes Mousseau, Ungerer, correlation 2013b; Ungerer, peace Mousseau, & democratic is 2013; Orsun, the relationship 2009; wars, observed (Mousseau or an crises, insignificant countries disputes, that and interstate when evidence near-zero insignifi- militarized have that become fatal we shown Y, of to have and regression Y studies a X on in both Multiple X cause 474). of can In 1979: impact Z exist? (Blalock, the how not spurious for causes does theory Z flawed correlation have variable we this fatally of and if introduction a cant, happens the on What if peace. part, analyses, to statistical in democracy standard from least causation at for strategy, evidence grand principal its not crafted does of has democracy law If earth the convincing. how on widely explaining power it theory assumption. greatest render no to the and evidence peace, theorized, enough Russett, be cause accrued 1994; only has (Clinton, can works nations United it other peace the seen, in democratic caused democracy be has promoting cannot it of for is causation However, strategy matters, nations, law security 2005). democratic this national of between the existence adopt conflict The to militarized politics. States international of of dearth law a observed considered the widely correlation, peace democratic The Controversy The 1 DOI: in asexisting peace correlation the democratic Keywords: deeming these for Together, grounds knowledge. peace. scientific of with no state correlation are the near-zero there a that us has revised inform economy with facts contractualist cen- analyses 1920 without largest-observed nineteenth New the democracy (4) the over observations that and in of dyads; show peace 94% democratic covering democratic economy were contractualist no but on is dyads data contractualist has direct There for contractual- democracy no (3) were of uncontested; there defense controlling remain when empirical disputes tury, rebuttals Every isno offatal the (2) There practices; and controversial regression a (1) rebutted, identified: with in been are unencumbered facts is significant crucial article that Four democracy economy This debate. shows ist errors. this that multiple in contain print claims studies in all Defendersof these behind report claim evidence peace zero andinsignificant. of with state democracy the near of examines observed correlation the becomes a correlation, nations, of peace existence democratic democratic between the the conflict wars, militarized or of crises, disputes, dearth interstate militarized fatal advanced-market of when gression that shown have studies Multiple 1 Knowledge of State the in Exist Not Does Correlation Peace Democratic the Know We Ways Four Mousseau Michael GRUYTER DE 09Wle eGutrGb,Berlin/Boston. GmbH, Gruyter de Walter 2019 © Mousseau Michael Abstract: colo oiis euiy n nentoa far,Uiest fCnrlFoia 27AdoeaLo . rad,FL Orlando, N., Loop Andromeda 4297 Florida, Central of University Affairs, International and Security, Politics, of School 21-36 S,Poe 475964,Emi:[email protected] E-mail: +407-579-6249, Phone: USA, 32816-1356, “ the is itself correlation the that means peace democratic of law the for theory convincing a of dearth The Defenders 10.1515/peps-2019-0023 aiaitpae ofit eortcpae security peace, democratic conflict, peace, capitalist stecrepnigauthor. corresponding the is ” fdmcaya as fpaehv o ogtt aetercs iheiec o any for evidence with case their make to sought not have peace of cause a as democracy of 1 “ ec cnmc,PaeSineadPbi oiy 09 20190023 2019; Policy. Public and Science Peace Economics, Peace contract-intensive Brought toyouby |UniversityofCentralFlorida- UCF ” Download Date |12/9/19 1:28 AM cnm scniee nare- a in considered is economy ’ cnmctp sconsidered is type economic Authenticated – 00period 2010 1 Automatically generated rough PDF by ProofCheck from River Valley Technologies Ltd al 1: Table standing them, of as the treated ignored. five of be all refutations two cannot fact their repeat claims in and refuted merely five and repeated so claims, all to are cumulative, empirical in rejoinder they is these and because their Science that simply 5), evidence. fact used and new the (2018) with 4, of Dafoe contested recognition 3, and now without (#s were Ray 4), rejoinders and Instead, in explainwhythe 3 so. explicitly (#s to do cases claims prior opportunity to three hadample not in have error, chose in canbeseenin Defenders they be As cases cases may five claims In all their of democracy. of indefense rebutted. refutations been claims have five empirical of five all 1, a total Table unsupported offered be have to democracy shown of been Defenders has democracy of defense empirical Every 3 significant. democracy showing regression new any report they did 183 nor (2018: practice; standards single a community defend scholarly not specification did controversial to some (2018) contains contrary MIDs economy.Examining fatal is of forcontractualist regressions that control their practice of not even one did every that chronicled some I data, their 500 specifications?); not (why specifications et analyses (Dafoe than specifications various reliable less are MIDs all 186 of 2018: analyses (Mousseau, that MIDs fatal-only agree of also et sides (Dafoe both fatalities because however, without consequential, ( and level with the lowest at those of significant analyses is peace with democracy of correlation no by controversial In economy. unencumbered contractualist analyses for in corresponding 2018). controlling (Mousseau, wars, significant practices democracy and shown crises, Defenders (MIDs), have analyses disputes case in interstate peace with militarized democracy of fatal correlation of meaningful no reported have print significant in democracy regressions Twenty-eight showing regression clear-cut no is There 2 unambiguous four in exist, not does correlation a such knowledge, of state contractualist present for ways. controlling the exists, in peace that with show democracy I of economy. correlation a whether of challenges controversy other empirical of the discussion allow space correlation. peace does democratic Nor the 2019). to (Mousseau, elsewhere 2009). reviewed (Mousseau, be can peace which in peace, not are on democracies these data and direct economy, one-half that contractualist About corroborated: lack 2000) prediction democracies (Mousseau, have the all made and that of 2003), was Webb, democracies prediction & those (Beck this available to became after limited of contractualist economy only contractualist way, is result was peace a this It democratic as economies. In peace, the intensive democracies, order. that contract marketplace market-oriented prediction the the global among yielding and, the interests, democracy common in stewardship both its cause interests in to impartial policy suggested state is foreign economy the keep and to economy, means the best the of as democracy, the causes called also exists economy latter often Contractualist the are leaders; group what and groups in to loyalty today causes and history, human of most encompasses former The 2 leaders their and traditional history: economies of kinds primary two fdmcayi eie nabnr a atthe highest way abinary in defined is democracy If 1 eod eedr aerpre eorc infcn nsm oto f14rgesosofMIDsusing 144 regressions of portion in some significant democracy reported have Defenders Second, a that agree debate this in sides both First, fact. compelling this regarding address to points two are There democratic the to application its or theory norms economic of discussion further permit not does Space hsatcei neddt eptefedmk es fti otoes.Eooi om theory distinguishes norms Economic this controversy. of sense make field the help to intended is article This oeiec provided evidence 3). No 2011: (Dafoe, economy contractualist for significant controlling be likely would of democracy measure (+10), IV democracy Polity 21-point the of category claims Defensive Mousseau miia lismd ndfneo eorc,adterpeetstanding. present their and democracy, of defense in made claims Empirical – and “ contractualist

l,21) oee,Dfeadclege ii. rvd ociei o hi 144 their for criteria no provide (ibid.) colleagues and Dafoe However, 2013). al., 1 “ nta,ti ril ek odsigihteetaeu rmteesnilin essential the from extraneous the distinguish to seeks article this Instead, aktdemocracies, market ” economy – 7 na ust,20:299 2005: Russett, & Oneal 87; – hr epeaedpneto h mesnlmarketplace. impersonal the on dependent are people where “ status

l,21:28 oseu 08 8) hssaitci not is statistic This 186). 2018: Mousseau, 208; 2013: al., ” i o as hsiseaani utpeltrarticles later multiple in again issue this raise Defenders not 192). did 2013: (Mousseau, peace significantly not with is correlated (+10) Polity democracy 21-point of the measure of IV category highest the in a at way binary defined democracy that show tests Subsequent standing Present ” n asslylyt mata ueo-a states. rule-of-law impartial to loyalty causes and economy Brought toyouby |UniversityofCentralFlorida- UCF 2 p – .0 naaye falMD,meaning MIDs, all of analyses in 0.10) < – hr epeaedpneto groups on dependent are people where – 6.I hi eone,RyadDafoe and Ray rejoinder, their In 86). 300). Download Date |12/9/19 1:28 AM Authenticated EGRUYTER DE Automatically generated rough PDF by ProofCheck from River Valley Technologies Ltd oad otataim swl sgoig hsepcaini orbrtdi iue1 hr ecnsee capita. can per per $25 we $190 about and where at $165 rates, 1, between growth steady-state Figure economic a above in to up, corroborated going return start and is contracting capita, insurance expectation life This in rates transforming growing. growth be as would annual economy well the as because economy, overall contractualism, life the towards in in rates rates growth type: have growth must above economic economy contracting contractualist of towards insurance transitioning measures critics consider countries accurate, binary my is new a theory view two norms 66), introduce therefore I (2009: kind. economy status 2014). traditional (Yuan, reflect random at values missing missing not on, “ are early values noted missing et I because (Dafoe As problems, recommended have pose critics procedures my imputation as et 159). both 2018), mechanism Mousseau 2009: (Mousseau, 2013; causal Weingast, imputed (Mousseau, & the imputed multiply Wallis, of singly were North, were measure they 2009; values direct missing (Mousseau, a studies, contracting few is on a dependency which In societal contracting, of insurance et intensity life (Dafoe the capita peace of democratic per used the on contractualism overturned based for have is measure that the measure studies in the values missing of of some handling in the criticized have democracy of Defenders tests new and data New 5 that assert simply they claim: their investigated doubt not have they However, correlation. I. peace War democratic World before the thenwe of entirety century, the nineteenth the powerful in explain a cannot yields peace economy fact for contractualist This force that period. significant know this a would the in is nations in democracy contractualist if economy between opportunity: contractualist means peace experimental this a a quasi correct, been with If have 179). not country 2018: could (Mousseau, one there States) only United that (the been I have War World before to meaning century, seems nineteenth there data, century available nineteenth to the According in peace democratic no was There 4 GRUYTER DE iete eemkn hi nupre seto,ohr eeivsiaigi.JneadGlirpr that report Gelpi and Jenke it. investigating 2275). were others assertion, unsupported “ their making were they time reasonable oeo h esrso on eorc pert aeayipc nitrtt ofitpirtoWWI prior conflict interstate on impact any have to appear democracy joint of measures the of none infcn neato emo eorc with ofdemocracy term interaction Significant 5 conflict militarized of years on-going of dropping The 4 contractualist for values missing of imputation Multiple 3 with for democracy the coefficients in difference The 2 tflosta isn ausms eacutdfri hscnrvry n ihu muaino any of imputation without and controversy, this in for accounted be must values missing that follows It century, nineteenth the in existed peace democratic a that claim their in explicit are (2018) Dafoe and Ray eortcpaei o pros(ao n Russett 116 and 2013: (Dafoe spurious the not thus is and peace peace, democratic on impact causal conditional has a democracy that evidence is economy contractualist et “ et in Dafoe describing 198] findings [2018: Dafoe and (Ray peace democratic economy Noevidence 113). provided 2013: &Russett, not (Dafoe is significant economy contractualist for control without and etrsteeiec o h eortcpeace democratic the for evidence the restores ”

l,21:204) 2013: al., bu o uha analysis an such how about ” – “ Dfeet (Dafoe 1;Dfeet Dafoe 118; rdc infcn coefficients significant produce

l,2013) al., l,21:206). 2013: al.,

l,21:205 2013: al., “ ol unout turn would – 206) ” for ” (Dafoe ” ii. 9) ehp nenws ote,a bu the about at them, to unbeknownst Perhaps 198). (ibid.: ao 21)ddntadesti e evidence new this address not did (2018) Dafoe 181 2018: peace (Mousseau, on democracy of a impact for causal support conditional no yield data the tests New disaggregating one. spurious a from conditional relationship a distinguish evidence cannot new term interaction this An address not did Ray rejoinder, (2018) Dafoe their and In 181). (ibid.: peace evidence democratic the for restore not did years on-going tests dropping New 180). (2018: unencumbered practices MIDs controversial fatal by of analyses in result claimed the replicate not could investigation Subsequent this address evidence not new did (2018) Dafoe their and In Ray rejoinder, 180). (ibid: peace democratic the for restore evidence not did imputation multiple using New tests 178). 2018: (Mousseau, unencumbered practices MIDs controversial fatal by of analyses in result claimed the replicate not could investigation Subsequent articles later multiple in again et (Mousseau significant highly for is control economy without and contractualist with inthe democracy for difference coefficients the that confirm tests Subsequent

l,21b 3) eedr i o as hsissue this raise not did Defenders 133). 2013b: al., Brought toyouby |UniversityofCentralFlorida- UCF Axial

l,21;Ry&Dfe 08.This 2018). Dafoe, & Ray 2013; al., – 8) nterrjidr a and Ray rejoinder, their In 182). Download Date |12/9/19 1:28 AM and

Contractualist l 03;21b;i others in 2013b); 2013a; al.

l,21) However, 2013). al., “ hr a elittle be can there Authenticated Mousseau feconomic If . ” (2017: 3 Automatically generated rough PDF by ProofCheck from River Valley Technologies Ltd al 2: Table changes. political caused changes during economic democratized as countries nation periods, contractualist contractualist many axial theory, no their the and with Singapore), Consistent is democratic democratic. exception became being single table stopped (the ever the contractualist in becoming nation of non-democratic years every eleven almost within as law, of rule democratic the the off consolidates, obtainable that 178). than 2018: greater tions (Mousseau, be condition must this marketplace reflects definition, largely the By net-immigration in contractualist. contractualist, and labor networks, became as of status nation data from price the the market the when enter economy extrapolate that an to contractualist nations on of used For a relied value be 2003). in that the Webb, can 2009) has & years (Mousseau, which (Beck prior study threshold, data in prior upper insurance net-emigration a life the in as the ofthe28nations adopted $165 of cut-point version for most median earlier opt and the thus to I data, equivalent years. in the roughly seven cut- being within 1960 specific $434, $200 of range of availability The to average data economy. $20 of an period the Contractualist with the in over of threshold are $165 indicative the nations crossed as asthat few range difference, latter little the make above points values and economy, Axial 1: Figure 4 Spain Rep.˚ Korea, ˚ Ireland Austria France Belgium Finland Japan Germany Denmark Luxembourg Britain Great Sweden Norway Switzerland Netherlands Zealand New Canada Australia States United Nation ihmsigdt elcieo rdtoa ttseooy(ro oetrn h aa,Tbe2presentsna- Table data), the toentering (prior economy status of traditional reflective data missing With transitional of indicative as $190 and $165 between somewhere to $25 of span the suggest thus data The ’ cnmctps h al orbrtstepeito htcnrculs cnm sbt as f and of, cause a both is economy contractualist that prediction the corroborates table The types. economic Mousseau ain ihsau,ail n otataiteoois 1776 economies, contractualist and axial, status, with Nations rwhrtsi ieisrnecontracting. insurance life in rates Growth <1960 <1960 <1960 <1960 <1960 <1960 <1960 <1960 <1931 <1930 <1930 <1926 <1922 xa er Nation years Axial 1974 1979 1979 1961 †† † † † † – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 97Bulgaria Argentina 1987 Uruguay 1984 Kuwait 1983 Thailand 1981 1979 97Mexico Panama 1977 Venezuela 1975 Africa South 1972 Poland 1967 Slovakia 1963 Hungary 1963 Botswana 1962 Mauritius 1960 Rep. Czech 1931 Slovenia 1930 Greece 1930 Malaysia˚ 1926 Chile 1922 Singapore˚˚ 1920 Portugal 1920 Italy 1920 1776 1991 1980 1986 <2000 <1960 xa er Nation years Axial 1979 Brought toyouby |UniversityofCentralFlorida- UCF 1991 1993 1986 1997 1993 1992 1979 1981 1979 1981 – 2010.* – – 2009> – 1997 3 – 09 Indonesia 2009> 1991 1989 1985 – – – – – – – – – – – – 1982 1981 1979 1983 00Qatar 2000 Trinidad 1989 03Lithuania 2003 Estonia 2002 2001 Salvador El 1999 1998 1997 Croatia Brazil 1996 Oman 1996 Bahrain 1994 1990 ††† ≠ – – – – – – ± – 00dds ail,alrahn $200, reaching all rapidly, so did 2010 Romania Latvia Morocco Colombia Jamaica Peru Russia Namibia Download Date |12/9/19 1:28 AM Authenticated 2003 2008 2006 2007 1993 2003 2003 1999 1994 xa years Axial EGRUYTER DE – – – – – <2005 – – – – 2009 2008> 2009> 2009> 2007> 2008> 2008> 2006> 2003> 2009 1999 1996 2004 2003 2003 1997 1996 1995 1995 1994 ± ≠ – – – – – – – – – – – – Automatically generated rough PDF by ProofCheck from River Valley Technologies Ltd eortclyeetdgvrmnsa eie ihtePlt Vdtst ycneto crn> 6onthe scoring>= ‘ byconvention IVdataset, 2012). an economy.For level Jaggers, of the & Polity have Gurr, listed income with nations with the defined contractualist as all governments noted, democratically-elected increases otherwise Mousseau, household Unless Michael doi.org/10.7910/DVN/8RPC9E. the typical see to V1, measure, rates Dataverse, cover insurancedata this parity Harvard to Life power of benefit by country. purchasing construction data death using the needed dollars in missing the details international years of that (2005) fact reflectthe flows constant prior state, orareinformal. the in the for gauged informal to extrapolate by so account (2010) used Levine data monitored andinefficient, and Demirgüç-Kunt, Migration are not aneconomy. Beck, is costly that in from third-parties economy flows by private in an status than of energyflows consumption of enforcement rather becontractual, presence axial are there considered of theresiduals can are flows one,signifying informal capita than While per the ratio $165 periods above greater when is Axial Nations indicated random. capita. flows, flows at per GDP-predicted economic not consumption informal missing insurance have status as life they have the contractualist treated in if unlisted of be $165 Nation-years contractualist should and period. year micro-nations observation $25 first between 500,000; the the those than of is are smaller end period populations the axial have until the they so of unless remained year economies, contractualist last became the that indicated, states otherwise and Unless economy, category. intermediate the is *Axial GRUYTER DE uls ain.Wt ae fpretpeito mte,tecefcetfrDmcayi o zero. 3: Table is now Democracy for coefficient twocontrac- the between conflict omitted, prediction fatal militarized perfect a of cases been never With has nations. there tualist that fact striking the reflecting prediction, ( Democracy expected, without As and tions. sources, data also other They to way. it. due any missing of in data sample values have representative missing otherwise a of the we simply imputation which not for for nation cases, allow observations of non-micro of economy population every 94% contractualist 1920 whole include includes the on of it include domain data as largely controversy, temporal analyses new this broad the The in the 2013). over examined Russett, existed yet & that domain temporal Dafoe demo- less and (e.g. the spatial of dyad indicator largest IV the Polity 21-point in full interstate state the militarized using cratic gauged of democracy onset-years with of and regressions fatalities; logistic with disputes dyads; interstate democratic. non-directional always almost of are analyses which pooled ones, contractualist rather but may peace, it in that are suggests fact that This nations 183). democratic (2018: be economy not contractualist lack nation-years democratic all of half roughly economy. contractualist 2010. to of transition as its democratic of not years ˚˚Nation 11 within democratic became ˚Nation ≠ ± ††† †† † < xa eideddwt eupino ttseconomy. status of resumption with ended period Axial ainhdcnrculs cnm rmya fsovereignty. of year from economy contractualist had Nation xa eidcnan oeyaso ttseconomy. status of years some contains period Axial Cyprus Clusters N Intercept size System Distance Contiguity power Major ratio Capability axial both or One axial or contractualist Both contractualist Both Democracy years onset MID Fatal ’ tr er fcnrculs n xa cnm unknown. economy axial and contractualist of years Start a olne aeacnrculs cnm fe 08 er 2009 Years 2008. after economy contractualist a have longer no May / oe nTbe3peet h aemdlwtotcnrculs,i codnewt tnadspecifica- standard with accordance in contractualism, without model base the presents 3 Table in 1 Model peace: democratic the of Defenders by embraced procedures standard and the democracy, adopted I of prediction, cause this only test To the is contractualism says that theory norms economic in nothing is There ‘ > ’ tr eredya failpro unknown. period axial of year year/end start = eorc,cnrculs cnm,adftlitrtt ipts 1921 disputes, interstate fatal and economy, contractualist Democracy, †† 1988 – 99UAE 1989 − .7 sngtv n infcn.I oe 2 In Model significant. and negative is 0.07) − − − − 1.43 0.40 0.25 0.07 1.26 1.42 1.72 β – – – oe 1 Model 575,928 14,057 0.09** 0.06** 0.02** 0.21** 0.31** 0.27** “ 0.69* – otatItniyo ainlEoois(IE,VrinMar-2019, Version (CINE), Economies National of Intensity Contract 00 ic ocnrculs ydeitdbfr 1920, before existed dyad contractualist no Since 2010. SE – – – – 00unknown. 2010 1992 Brought toyouby |UniversityofCentralFlorida- UCF − − − 0.43 0.28 0.00 1.38 1.02 1.96 1.92 – 1997> β – – – 2010. oe 2 Model † 442,840 13,249 ohContractualist Both 0.10** 0.06** 0.30** 0.47** 0.29** Download Date |12/9/19 1:28 AM 0.02 0.86 SE − – – § Polity2 − − − − 0.44 0.27 0.01 1.19 0.21 3.28 1.13 1.79 1.85 esr (Marshall, measure β – – rdce lw to flows predicted Authenticated Mousseau ilsperfect yields oe 3 Model 536,962 14,035 0.10** 0.06** 0.85** 0.26** 0.39** 0.27** 0.02 0.75 0.22 SE – 5 ” Automatically generated rough PDF by ProofCheck from River Valley Technologies Ltd al 4: Table at available are data All Vasquez. A. John and Lynn-Jones, Sean doi.org/10.7910/DVN/YJD6CA. Hegre, Dataverse Haavard Harvard Gleditsch, Petter Nils thank I Acknowledgements deemingthe for grounds knowledge. of areno scientific state democracy the there Unless and of in 396). existing correlation regression, 2005: as aclear-cut the correlation (Russett, in peace of fordemocracy democratic war reports significant shown that to wage is suggested democracy decisions have con- until influenced new some already the high: have addressing, may too and peace recognizing, are with without stakes contested The been have evidence. that testing claims prior trivial repeat be to would enough errors not such that showed I cut-points. measure, enforcement. the this (state) near of values party cut-points have third selected nation-years require few the because in that made contracts be on can without dependency errors cases, direct While micro-level a of of is population economy mechanism entire contractualist causal for the lying measure include The largely kind. herein any analyses of imputation The peace. democratic the show, data supersedes new peace. with in analyses not new are peace (4) economies democratic and contractualist the dyads; no without contractualist and is democracies no rebutted, there that were been again, (3) there has them; when democracy century, contest of nineteenth to defense the democracy opportunities empirical in regression of multiple every aclear-cut correlation despite (2) in wars; uncontested a significant or remain of democracy crises, show rebuttals existence to MIDs, the able fatal been support of has not analyses one does no in (1) evidence ways: simple of four state in peace, the with that shown has article This Conclusion 6 once contractualist peace with relationship significant consideration. no into has taken democracy is that economy corroborate 3 2019). and (Mousseau, 2 Models nations cant. hegemonic thecontractualist contractualist of and the cause with core other allied a each Axial often is are fighting avoid hegemony which than nations, contractualist to predictable axial tend less the so order, is economy, with nations axial alliance axial to nations, status of behavior from status change the and While contractualist so. of doing behavior in the uncertainty increased the for control to events. as not but sample the in retained et ** dyads Dafoe by joiner recommended with as nations, missing 1) (day as § originating treated years of dispute disputes logistic Ongoing fatal events of rare year using First identical 2019). Results McManus, random. at doi.org/10.7910/DVN/YJD6CA. not with at missing those as Dataverse as Harvard treated defined at †† and available micronations, reliable are for sources, not Data data Data are Contractualist regression. variable. 500,000, 5. dependent Table than the Appendix less behind in sizes year reported population one are lagged statistics variables summary independent and All measures, reported. not but included dependence temporal † 6 Appendix aibeyed efc rdcinad1,8 bevtosntused. not observations 13,489 and prediction perfect yields Variable correctionsfor Cubic spline dyad. by(non-directional) for clustering corrected errors standard with coefficients log-odds Logistic cnmcnrster is theory norms Economic 1 ydcMltrzdItrtt ipt aav . Mo,Jhsn aln gnoa hee 09 amr D Palmer, 2019; Shreve, & Ogunkoya, Kaplan, Johnson, (Maoz, 3.1 v. data Dispute Interstate Militarized Dyadic p .1 * 0.01, < oeDfnesmyfe oiae otyaant aetedmcai ec orlto.Hwvr tis it However, correlation. peace democratic the save to again try to motivated feel may Defenders Some peace contractualist the that documenting print in now are regressions thirty of total a study, this With with contractualist, as nations axial treats 3 Model prediction, perfect sidestep To feooi interdependence, economic of fact Asserted 21:17.N uprigctto provided citation supporting No 197). (2018: argument ( Mousseau − setosmd nti otoes htaecnrr odcmne fact. documented to contrary are that controversy this in made Assertions .8 sngtv n ihysgiiat n eorc 00)rmiscoet eoandisinsignifi- zero to close remains (0.01) Democracy and significant, highly and negative is 3.28) p .5 w-aldtests. two-tailed 0.05, < ” Ry 03 9) eetdb a n Dafoe and Ray by Repeated 199). 2013: (Ray, “ bu h aiyn impact pacifying the about ” n sthus is and “ o new a not

l 21) 0 n a n ao 21) 199 (2018): Dafoe and Ray and 204 (2013): al. ouetdfact Documented a encaiidrpael Musa,20:72 194) 2009: 2013: (Mousseau, repeatedly clarified fact been This theory. has this in economic peace about causing nothing interdependence is there theory that norms see economic and on article any read can Anyone Brought toyouby |UniversityofCentralFlorida- UCF – o proxy a not Download Date |12/9/19 1:28 AM n rBt Axial Both or One – ohCnrculs or Contractualist Both ag fteunder- the of gauge ’ rzo ewc,& Kenwick, Orazio, – 200. Authenticated EGRUYTER DE included – 74, Automatically generated rough PDF by ProofCheck from River Valley Technologies Ltd onr a aeacnrculs cnm ihamnrt eino xa rsau cnm,epcal fi a eea-yeof federal-type a has it if especially economy, status or axial of region example. minority an is a 1960s with the economy before contractualist South 4. American a Table The Appendix have structure. in can governing chronicled country are These A fact. already-documented Dafoe 3 to he and contrary but Ray are peace, of that peace asspurious(Blalock democratic assertions content the to remaining the democratic challenge inferring The a as for 2 cited aprerequisite often cause democracy, is can (2007) 474). Gartzke variables 1979: hiscombined 2012). how (2007, for Gibler from theory no comes challenge offers standing main The 1 Notes g 1982). Singer, & (Small f Japan and Italy, Germany, China, e d c b a 5: Table GRUYTER DE otgiy10mlso eso pnwtr ne-aia itnelge Sint,Tr ih,Shfr oha,2002). Gochman, & Schafer, Diehl, Tir, (Stinnett, logged distance Inter-capital water. open of less or miles 150 Contiguity Polity2 tlatoesaei dniidb h orltso a samjrpwr ra rti,Fac,Rsi/SR n aiu yearsfor various and France, Russia/USSR; GreatBritain, power: as amajor War of Correlates the by identified is state one least At e al o ito otataitntos xa eid rae smissing. as treated periods Axial nations. contractualist of list for 1 Table See e al o ito xa ain.Icue ie ihoesaecnrculs n n tt axial. state one and contractualist state one with mixed Includes nations. axial of list for 1 Table See Hge 2008). (Hegre, orltso a ainlMtrasCpblt ne,hge/oe,lge Sne,Bee,&Suky 1972). Stuckey, & Bremer, (Singer, logged higher/lower, index, Capability Materials National War of Correlates a n ao 21:19 setta oseu(2009) Mousseau that assert 199) (2018: Dafoe and Ray 6 195 (2018: Dafoe and Ray 5 All 2 ytmsize System Distance Contiguity power Major ratio Capability Democracy axial or contractualist Both contractualist Both Variable a n ao 21:195 (2018: Dafoe and Ray 4 194 (2018: Dafoe and Ray 3 ntedpnetvariable dependent events the as in MIDs ongoing of joiners included (incorrectly) emerge to likely more economies contract-intensive make institutions “ transitions. democratic to lead that and democracy, Mousseau predict not does theory norms subject be (201) cannot testing theory experimental the to that means it because and problem, contract intensity of degrees varying consistently perceive will accurately public and general the and groups interest assumes, theory norms 199 (2018: Dafoe and Ray by et Repeated (Dafoe 204). (2013) 2013: Mousseau in 0 to set (incorrectly) endorsed aibe oe fbt tts oiyI aa .21 Mrhl et (Marshall 2013 v. data, IV Polity states, both of lower variable, umr ttsisadcreain ihcnrculs cnm,1921 economy, contractualist with correlations and statistics Summary “ ydyaswt nogigconflict ongoing an with dyad-years f f c g ” ” e cosntos hsi a is This nations. across ” hysy eas tis it because say, they “ cnwegsta otataimde not does contractualism that acknowledges d h view the a ” “ htdmcai political democratic that b “ htplcmkr swl as well as policymakers that – – – 9)asr htMusa has Mousseau that assert 196) 9)asr hteconomic that assert 196) economic that assert 195) ” “ adt believe to hard ’ s “ fundamental 21)rjidri o drse nti ril eas tcnit agl funsupported of largely consists it because article this in addressed not is rejoinder (2018) 7,2 .108 .19.42 1.00 1.00 1.61 9.87 0.00 0.00 0.80 1.00 0.00 0.18 8.21 1.00 0.29 0.03 575,928 0.00 1.52 0.09 575,928 0.00 2.02 575,928 0.24 575,928 0.17 0.06 575,928 0.03 575,928 536,962 456,329 ” b.Ma t.MnMax Min Std. Mean Obs. were ” –

al., (194); 200) − − .70.49 1.77 6.11 3.62

onr fogigMD seet ftedependent the of events variable as MIDs include ongoing not of did joiners he that see and data publicly-available Mousseau examine can assertion Anyone opposing their no for provide citation (2018) supporting Dafoe and Ray 187). 2013: 59, 2009: (Mousseau, of exogenously origins economy contractualist the treats which theory, norms economic Dafoe and assertion Ray contrary their for citation supporting 70 63, 2009: (Mousseau, economy contractualist democracy from predicts explicitly theory norms Economic theory in norms role economic a play perceptions interstate their that for assertion citation and supporting Ray no 189). provide 2013: (2018) 83, Dafoe 75, 71, 63, 2009: kind any (Mousseau, of perceptions without nations, interests among predicted from happens Peace nations. any across about theory this in perceiving nothing actor is there theory that norms see economic and on article any read 180) can 2018: Anyone (Mousseau, 1 MID as new retained were a (correctly) conflict if ongoing began: an MID with new dyad-years no began, if only 0 as retained were an conflict with ongoing dyad-years that see and data publicly-available Mousseau examine can Anyone l,2012). al., – 1 03 186 2013: 71, Brought toyouby |UniversityofCentralFlorida- UCF − − 00 10.00 10.00 .30.00 2.13 – ’ seto scnrr otevr oeof core very the to contrary is assertion s 2010. – “ 8) a n ao 21)poieno provide (2018) Dafoe and Ray 188). ayn ere fcnrc intensity contract of degrees varying not Download Date |12/9/19 1:28 AM e o0 non er were years Ongoing 0. to set ’ ’ oseu(2009) Mousseau s (2013) Mousseau s orlto ihboth with Correlation Authenticated Mousseau contractualist − − 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.40 1.00 1.00 ” 7 Automatically generated rough PDF by ProofCheck from River Valley Technologies Ltd rgt . orh,S 21) eues cnmccpct,adhs tt repression. (2014). state Y. Yuan, host and capacity, economic Refugees, 3.0. (2018). Version S. Moorthy, data, & T., contiguity Wright, direct project (COW) war of correlates The (2002). C. Gochman, P., & Schafer, P. F., Diehl, J., Tir, M., D. Stinnett, (1982). D. J. Singer, & M., Small, 1820 war, power major and uncertainty, distribution, Capability (1972). J. Stuckey, & A., S. Bremer, D., J. Singer, peace. democratic the Bushwhacking (2005). contractualism. B. versus Russett, peace Democratic (2018). A. Dafoe, & L., J. Ray, peace. democratic on War (2013). L. J. Ray, d coups interdependence, Economic stability: in Investing (2016). M. Chacha, & J., Powell, better. is really more When be? it D let G., Palmer, three, of Rule (2005). B. Russett, & J., Oneal, (2009). R. B. Weingast, & J., says J. still Wallis, evidence C., D. The North, peace? democratic the supersede peace market-capitalist the Does (2013b). L. J. Ungerer, & F. O. Orsun, M., Mousseau, It peace: and (2013a). D. Mousseau, & L. J. Ungerer, F., peace. O. world Orsun, perpetual M., to Mousseau, leading are hegemony liberal and marketplace robust a How war: of end The (2019). M. Mousseau, peace. democratic the supersedes peace contractualist The evidence: scientific the Grasping (2018). M. Mousseau, It unraveled: peace democratic The (2013). peace. M. democratic Mousseau, of roots market social The (2009). M. peace. Mousseau, democratic and consolidation, democratic prosperity, Market (2000). terrorism. M. and Mousseau, modernization Failed poverty? urban in Rooted (2012). D. Meierrieks, (2012). K. Jaggers, & R., T. Gurr, 3.0: G., version M. dataset Marshall, (MIDs) disputes interstate militarized dyadic The (2019). A. Shreve, & F., Ogunkoya, J., Kaplan, P. L., Johnson, Z., Maoz, terrorism. anti-American of roots the and market-capitalism of rise The (2015). D. Meierrieks, conflict. & T., interstate Krieger, of model causal the in contingencies historical variations: and Theme (2017). C. Gelpi, & kills. L., power Jenke, but pacify, may Preponderance war: toward Gravitating (2008). H. Hegre, (2012). conflict. M. and D. issues, Gibler, territorial Democracy, peace: on Bordering (2007). M. D. Gibler, peace. capitalist The (2007). E. Gartzke, fatalities. disaster natural and economies intensive contract between relationship The lives? save contracts Do (2017). J. inference. Enia, cautious and evidence the Weighing peace: democratic The (2013). B. Russett, & R., (Eds.), J. P. Gleditsch N. Oneal, & A., Dafoe, G. Schneider, peace. liberal the of strands Interwoven capitalism: and Democracy (2013). M. B. Russett, emptor. & Caveat A. Dafoe, peace: democratic the of critiques Statistical (2011). A. Dafoe, (1994). J. W. Clinton, terrorism. domestic on development economic of effects curvilinear The (2013). M. Daube, & C., Boehmer, (1979). M. financial H. updated Jr., The Blalock time: over and countries across markets and institutions Financial (2010). R. Levine, & A., Demirgüç-Kunt, T., Beck, countries. across consumption insurance life of determinants institutional and demographic, Economic, (2003). I. Webb, & T., Beck, References 8 ofitMngmn n ec Science Peace and Management Conflict search Little. and Miller, Press. University Cambridge York: (Eds.), P. Gleditsch N. & G. Schneider, yes. (Eds.), Gleditsch Security Science Peace manual datasets. alternative to comparisons and characteristics, Logic, 46 tion Press. Policy Public in Crisis terly idea liberal a of prospects and origins The peace: capitalist The Policy Public database. structure and development Review Economic Bank a,adnumbers and war, – , Mousseau 61. , 61 57 , 1) 2262 (10), 53 etrfrSsei ec n oitlSsesRsac Inc. Research Societal-Systems and Peace Systemic for Center . 201 , , 44 ’ 4,525 (4), rzo . ewc,M . cau,R .(09.Udtn h iiaie nesaedsuedt:Arsos oGibler, to response A data: dispute interstate militarized the Updating (2019). W. R. McManus, & R., M. Kenwick, V., Orazio, 1,160 (1), estvt nlssi utpeiptto o isn data missing for imputation multiple in analysis Sensitivity , – , 19 35 214. 3,359 (3), 2,175 (2), h ertra ec:Bres tt eeomn,aditrainlconflict international and development, state Borders, peace: territorial The tt fteuinadest congress to address union the of State – – h aiaitpae h rgn n rset falbrlidea liberal a of prospects and origins The peace: capitalist The eel il,C:SAGE. CA: Hills, Beverly . nentoa tde Quarterly Studies International 538. 2284. – , oilstatistics Social 196. 9 , 1,60 (1), – 17 – 368. 192. 1,51 (1), eott rs nentoa n ii as 1816 wars, civil and International arms: to Resort – 81. – 88. 2de. e ok McGraw-Hill. York: New ed.) (2nd , mrcnJunlo oiia Science Political of Journal American , 19 nentoa tde Quarterly Studies International ol akEooi Review Economic Bank World 59 , h aiaitpae h rgn n rset falbrlidea liberal a of prospects and origins The peace: Capitalist The POLITY – 67. ilneadsca res ocpulfaeokfritrrtn eoddhmnhistory human recorded interpreting for framework conceptual A orders: social and Violence otcmn.doi-org.eres.qnl.qa/10.1093/isq/sqz045. forthcoming. , – https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/16126. . VPOET oiia eiecaatrsisadtastos 1800 transitions, and characteristics regime Political PROJECT: IV nentoa tde Perspectives Studies International ’ h economy. the s e ok oteg . Routledge York: New . nentoa Security International ora fCnlc Resolution Conflict of Journal ae A2021.SSInstitute. SAS SAS270-2014. Paper . ofitMngmn n ec Science Peace and Management Conflict , 24 , 57 nentoa tde Quarterly Studies International , 1,77 (1), 51 198 , 1,166 (1), – mrcnJunlo oiia Science Political of Journal American e ok Routledge. York: New . 1980 – – Brought toyouby |UniversityofCentralFlorida- UCF 200. 92. ofitMngmn n ec Science Peace and Management Conflict 2de. eel il,C:SAGE. CA: Hills, Beverly ed.) (2nd . – nentoa tde Quarterly Studies International 191. ec cnmc.PaeSine n ulcPolicy Public and Science, Peace Economics. Peace ora fCnlc Resolution Conflict of Journal , , nentoa Interactions International 6 ern dto.Cmrde abig University Cambridge Cambridge: edition. Reprint . 33 ’ ’ 395 , ´a,adtecptls peace. capitalist the and e´tat, ens o ae.Shedr .&N Petter N. & G. Schneider, hayek. not keynes, s 52 , ora fCnlc Resolution Conflict of Journal , – – 63 408. 86. 3,811 (3), Download Date |12/9/19 1:28 AM , e ok Routledge. York: New . 57 – 186 , 835. ec cnmc,PaeSine and Science, Peace Economics, Peace ora fPaeResearch Peace of Journal , 35 – – 2,193 (2), , 95 nB ust (Ed.), Russett B. In 1965. 197. 55 , , , nentoa tde Quar- Studies International 44 52 2,247 (2), 51 ofitMngmn and Management Conflict 4,566 (4), 1,132 (1), 3,509 (3), ora fCnlc Resolu- Conflict of Journal – – , 02 aae users dataset 2012, , 203. 22 44 ora fPaeRe- Peace of Journal 293 , – 472 , Authenticated 262. – – – 155. 589. 532. ik aad & Hazards Risk, International – – 310. EGRUYTER DE 507. , , 18 52 World 3,1 (3), (1), New . Peace, ’ – 9.