China Analysis, Which Is Published in Both French Has Long Been Central Asia’S First Trading Partner

ANALYSIS CHINA

THE NEW GREAT GAME

Introduction

ABOUT by François Godement The Chinese have long been obsessed with strategic culture, power balances and geopolitical shifts. Academic institutions, think tanks, journals Seeking an alliance by any other name? and web-based debate are growing in number and quality and give China’s foreign policy breadth and Chinese policy in Central Asia is important to Europe for two depth. reasons. The first is economic: Europe (that is, the EU 27) China Analysis, which is published in both French has long been Central Asia’s first trading partner. In 2010 and English, introduces European audiences to it was overtaken by China (which does €23 billion of trade, these debates inside China’s expert and think-tank compared to Europe’s €21 billion, with the five Central Asian world and helps the European policy community states). Still, the EU is far ahead of the United States and understand how China’s leadership thinks even Russia. Of course, the lion’s share of EU trade with the about domestic and foreign policy issues. While freedom of expression and information remain region is with Kazakhstan – and 88 percent of that is made restricted in China’s media, these published up by EU oil imports. Compared to Kazakhstan, the other sources and debates provide an important way of central Asian states are minor trade partners for both the understanding emerging trends within China. EU and China, which may explain why both tend to publicly downplay the importance of the region. For example, the Each issue of China Analysis focuses on a specific theme and draws mainly on Chinese mainland European Commission’s DG Trade website has up-to-date sources. However, it also monitors content in information on individual countries in Central Asia but Chinese-language publications from Hong Kong gives an outdated 2007 figure for trade with the region as and Taiwan, which occasionally include news and a whole. analysis that is not published in the mainland and reflects the diversity of Chinese thinking. The Chinese sources examined in this issue of China Analysis The French version of China Analysis can be also err on the side of caution when it comes to trade levels accessed online at www.centreasia.eu. but they are much more upbeat about the importance of the region as a destination for investment and aid and as an oil supplier. Until the last few years, China’s reliance on oil from Central Asia was said to be minimal and the potential thought to be limited to less than 5 percent of its needs, compared to 3.5 percent of Europe’s fuel imports. However, our sources show that the proportion of China’s oil and 2 September 2011 CHINA ANALYSIS – which actually dwarf trade figures – are also tools of tools also – are figures trade dwarf actually which – wnwn reoi o tae szal hnot, close handouts, sizeable trade, on rhetoric “win-win” sa s taei: h rgo i ams a aoaoy for laboratory a almost is region the strategic: is Asia European equipment goods. The Silk Road still runs both runs still Road Silk The goods. equipment European hy r cer ht hn’ ivsmn ad i packages aid and investment China’s that clear are They Central in policy Chinese watch to reason second The n hr, hns plc i Cnrl sa s mxue of mixture a is Asia Central in policy Chinese short, In United States is a cautious actor that lets oil deals run their run deals oil lets that actor cautious a is States United usa n te S wih hy vn e converging see even they which – US the and Russia its by well-served particularly still seems which Russia, NATO. But our sources seem to hope that the SCO will also will SCO the that hope to seem sources our But NATO. attention to power politics and a refusal to choose between choose to refusal a and politics power to attention forces US of withdrawal the beyond look all analysts Our are They “separatists”. Xinjiang for support its limits and fear widespread the cite analysts the of all almost although using policy power a is what indeed out sketch sources Our out carry as well as region the in intervention UN-based a Our routes. maritime on dependences China reduces it as China is clearly hostile to a US presence so close to Xinjiang. hyped analysts Western Some policy. foreign Chinese a iprs ht oe fo Cnrl sa a already has Asia Central from comes that imports gas xlis ht hl Cia epcs h picpe f non- of principle the respects China while that explains course unimpeded (which wasn’t the case five years ago) years five case the wasn’t (which unimpeded course the that admit also Some effect). that to polls cite even of China and recognise that China is often unpopular (some eain t Trmnsa. ih 6 ilo pol but people million 66 With Turkmenistan. to relations than from from Europe come to is morelikely resources opportunities create may This percent. 10 beyond risen reality”. sources military Some threats. security classic than rather e o mltr rltos n is ih o iue h SCO the dilute to wish its and relations military of web ways. many different instruments. They recognise the opposition the recognise They instruments. different many the SCO and Chinese financial centres – with some hedging evils”. “three the of spread the containing to and region the own Moscow’s particular, in – SCO the of deepening a to new a as (SCO) Organization Cooperation Shanghai the influence to leverage the five states. They want to promote to want They states. five the leverage to influence terms: nuanced in West the see They shop. talking a into on based understood be must “principles interference, ominously sources our of one Kyrgyzstan, in intervention instead called and obsolete, as see they which intervention, non- of principle the criticised recently also have China in issues internal on focused albeit actions, security own its sources think that competition for access to CentralAsian sources thinkforaccess that competition share offeringsfromtheregion. - Bishkek near Manas in base US the of critical specifically id f nentoa isiuin ht ol b different be would that institution international of kind for market a also is Asia Central needs, infrastructure huge from Afghanistan with a view to ensuring the security of security a viewtoensuringthe from Afghanistanwith possible of discussion a In alliances. military classical for as such counterparts regional Western-inspired its from implications for Chinesecompaniesbutalsohasstrategic between Hong Kong and Shanghai – for financial aid and aid financial for – Shanghai and Kong Hong between veto to able be would that alliance quasi-military a become

gis tasainl euiy het ad international and threats security transnational against action, military of possibility the exclude not do analysts hn i vr raitc bu te btce ad opposition and obstacles the about realistic very is China ead, u sil aln sot f taiinl alliance. traditional a of short falling still but demands, mean may which resolutions, UN potential and demands towards Beijing. protection offering alliance”, “fraternal a becomes it that The Chinese Kyrgyz regimerecently against the together it faces, but is clearly confident it can reorient Central Asia Central reorient can it confident clearly is but faces, it short of war. They see the SCO as a hedge against Western against hedge a as SCO the see They war. of short are concerned about China’s influence in Central Asia, a 1. Strengthening the SCO region that is set to be central in the “struggle for resources” between the major powers. by Jérôme Doyon The USA and Russia both have interests in Central Asia. Sources: The two countries are in competition over pipelines and Sun Zhuangzhi, “An analysis of tension points and over their military bases in the region, particularly in security trends in Central Asia”, Xinjiang Shifan Daxue Kyrgyzstan.8 The European Union is also ramping up Xuebao - Journal of Xinjiang Normal University, investment in the region – Sheng Shiliang says that the Vol. 32, No. 2, March 2011.1 EU’s aid package to Central Asia for 2007–2013 totals $719 million. And economic cooperation between the EU Sheng Shiliang, “An overview of how to deal with security and Central Asia was given a boost in 2010 when Kazakhstan problems in Central Asia”, Eluosi Zhongya Dong’ou was awarded the rotating presidency of the Organisation Yanjiu – Russian Central Asian and East European for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). India is Studies, No. 1, 2011.2 looking to increase its involvement in the region under Wang Haiyun, “Thoughts on the security situation in its strategy of “going north”, which in 2010 saw it begin Central Asia and strengthening cooperation to maintain development on the TAPI pipeline along with Turkmenistan, stability in the SCO”, Eluosi Zhongya Dong’ou Yanjiu – Pakistan, and Afghanistan. South Korea invited the Uzbek Russian Central Asian and East European Studies, and Kazakh presidents to visit the country in 2010. In No. 1, 2011.3 the same year, Japan created the Central Asia plus Japan Zhao Huasheng, “Focus on relations between Russia and framework, a forum to facilitate dialogue between Japan the SCO”, Guoji Wenti Yanjiu – International Studies, and the countries of the region. Sun Zhuangzhi says that No. 1, 2011.4 as these other countries strive to increase their influence in Yang Shu, “American Policy in Central Asia and China- Central Asia, the pressure on China to defend its interests US Relations, concluding remarks”, selected proceedings in the region is rising. As trade with the region grows and from the conference on American policy in Central Asia China comes to depend more and more on Central Asian and China-US relations, Heping Yu Fazhan – Peace and energy supplies, maintaining influence in the region is Development, No. 6, 2010, December 2010.5 becoming a matter of crucial strategic importance. Peng Pei, “Viewing the China-India security partnership through the lens of the SCO”, Xue Lilun – Theory China is trying to position itself as a “good neighbour” to Research, No. 33, August 2010.6 the countries of the region. Hu Jintao has made three trips to Central Asia since 2009 and Wen Jiabao went to Chen Jidong and Zhang Renfeng, “Pakistan’s membership Kazakhstan for an SCO meeting in November 2010. Sun of the SCO: a necessity facing hurdles”, Xueshu Shensuo – Zhuangzhi notes that traditional border security is no Academic Exploration, No. 5, October 2010.7 longer the only focus of China’s security relations with its neighbours – China needs to protect its energy supplies, along with its more than $10 billion of investment in the China is working to build its economic and political links region. And any instability in neighbouring countries with Central Asia. China is now Central Asia’s principal runs the risk of threatening China’s own internal stability. trading partner and its main source of foreign investment. China signed agreements ending disputes with Kazakhstan, The country plays a central role in the Shanghai Cooperation Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan in 1994, 1996, and 2002, Organisation (SCO), an intergovernmental security ensuring border security in the northwest. Its greatest organisation made up of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, remaining security concern is Xinjiang and the fight against Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. But Chinese analysts the “three evils” of separatism, religious extremism, and terrorism. China wants the Central Asian states to take 1 Sun Zhuangzhi is the director of the Centre for Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). a more active part in its fight against Uyghur separatist 2 Sheng Shiliang is the director of the Policy Division of the Institute movements. The Central Asian countries have the largest for Development of Eurasian Societies in the State Council’s Research Uyghur populations of any countries apart from China, Centre in Development and a senior analyst for Xinhua News Agency. and Sun says that many separatist groups have bases 3 Wang Haiyun is the director of the Research Centre in Energy there. China is also concerned about unrest in Kyrgyzstan, Diplomacy at the Chinese Foundation for International Relations and a lecturer at the National Defence University. He is a former division which shares a 1,000 km border with China, as well as general and military attaché to Russia. in the Fergana Valley, which spreads across Kyrgyzstan, 4 Zhao Huasheng is a director of the Centre for Russian and Central Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. China wants to use the SCO Asian Studies, University of Fudan, Shanghai. to strengthen security cooperation with Central Asian 5 Yang Shu is the director of the Institute for Central Asian Studies at countries in order to fight terrorism and drug trafficking, Lanzhou University. 6 Peng Pei is a lecturer at Jianghan University, Wuhan. ensure the security of energy supplies, and guarantee 7 Chen Jidong is a professor at the Institute for South Asian Studies, University of Sichuan. Zhang Renfeng is a PhD candidate in the same 8 On the military bases in Kyrgyzstan, see Martina Bassan’s article in Institute. this issue of China Analysis. 3 4 September 2011 CHINA ANALYSIS Asia. Sun points out that although the US plans to reduce to plans US the although that out points Sun Asia. Another survey found that 69 percent of Kazakhs saw China ih ulc pno aant t Sn hns hn i i no in is China thinks Sun it, against opinion public With been has progress some although that says Haiyun Wang ni. u cts an cites Sun India. Russia is not the only major power China needs to consider: route transit essential an with Asia Central provides Russia as the country representing the greatest economic threatto the greatest as thecountryrepresenting China toweakenRussia’sposition. Central Asia entirely, and it will resist any attempt by China supplies it because Russia need countries Asian Central Zhuangzhi Sun Asia. Central in influence political China’s osdrd China considered can movebeyond“idletalk”( contain the expansion of Chinese influence, while relying on f respondents of Kyrgyzstan, in out opinion poll carried ( threat” Chinese the of for mechanisms that so eliminated be to need organisation talks holding beyond crisis of times in act to unable or or Russia to take charge in the region. Sheng thinks the US the thinks Sheng region. the in charge take to Russia or lun with the Central Asian countries and its huge investments huge its and countries Asian Central the with that showed which made towards working together on anti-terrorism measures, ut .6 percent 1.36 just the US also has a stake in maintaining influence in Central in influence maintaining in stake a has also US the technologies forextractingenergyresources. an itself is and exports, their for markets European to shortage. labour their with deal help to workers with them the says Shiliang Sheng term. medium the in region the power “soft the win to struggling is China thinks Sun them. country the be to thinks China’s lack of political influence is due to the “theory formaintainingstability in place is norealsystem there nationals workinginCentral Asia. ofChinese safety the its existing military presence, it has no intention of leaving of intention no has it presence, military existing its and systems weapons of development cost-effective the in assists it and investment foreign of source important an is It goods. industrial and agricultural for market important in CentralAsia. in the region. China has to find a way to build its soft power of limits the of illustration clear a as 2010 in Kyrgyzstan in crisis the see writers the However, region. the in influence unwilling be to itself shown has SCO The region. the in security cooperation can be developed and the organisation strategy is one of divide and rule: it depends on Russia to Russia on depends it rule: and divide of one is strategy position to outflank Russia and become the leader in theleader become and Russia outflank to position hn Siin sy Cia a cnieal economic considerable has China says Shiliang Sheng friendliest to Kyrgyzstan, as against 52.67 percent for Russia. battle” in Central Asia, in spite of its historical relationship historical its of spite in Asia, Central in battle” the within barriers legal thinks Wang members. between ) promoted by the West along with Russia, Japan, and Japan, Russia, with along West the by promoted ) The SCOneedstosetup external powersareinvolved. states to settle their internal structures to helpmember problems, especiallywhere 中国威胁论空谈 , kongtan , Zhongguo weixie ). Asia. And he downplays the significance and extent of extent and he organisations: separatist significance Uyghur of financing American the downplays he And Asia. $50,000 a year and that the US has no strategy on Xinjiang, ukeitn n Mnoi, f ihr onr wne to wanted country either if Mongolia, and Turkmenistan Unlike the Community of Independent States (CIS) or the or (CIS) States Independent of Community the Unlike Central in projects pipeline China’s blocked never has US said Shu Yang 2010, November in Lanzhou of University usas on o ve, hs ae te C a “foreign” a SCO the makes this view, of point Russia’s toward strategies different very have China and Russia view negative this share analysts Chinese all not However, s rvdn a onewih wti te raiain to organisation the within counterweight a providing as attracting India as a member. Russia has a good relationship olcie euiy ray raiain CT) i i not is it (CSTO), Organisation Treaty Security Collective its extend to tool main China’s is SCO The Asia. Central the is US the that idea the past move to needed China China to collaborate more closely on the security of energy security onthe China tocollaboratemoreclosely in inclusion India’s that writes Pei Peng influence. China’s differs from others in Central Asia because of its openness, its of because Asia Central in others from differs either fororagainstChinesegovernmentintereststhere. club”, Russia is relatively passive on economic matters. It matters. economic on passive relatively is Russia club”, organisation, which means Russia is wary of being involved of US strategy in Central Asia. At a conference on American region. Russia is much more active on security issues, but issues, security on active more much is Russia region. ih t I eooi afis Rsi pees o operate to prefers Russia affairs, economic In it. with international stage. on the weight greater gives it which with India, and India’s entry would considerably strengthen serve best can Russia and China both that saying in writers work together. overlap, some is there says Zhao Although China. worry drug combating in interested more is it that notes Zhao oeld n h bres f h fre US. u from But USSR. former the of borders the on modelled join. He thinks Russia would be particularly interested in interested particularly be would Russia thinks He join. h itrss f oh oes onie n nry security, energy in coincide powers both of interests the three obstacles to India’s membership: the border dispute border the membership: India’s to obstacles three the SCO is just a matter of time, since it already has observer well organisation as the of international importance the competition ensuring by region in the interests own their hard it makes priorities in difference the groups, terrorist that groups andterrorist separatist the than trafficking of because zone” cooperation economic “SCO an create to through structures it has set up itself. Within the SCO, Zhao influence in the region. Zhao Huasheng says the organisation investment, and anti-terrorism measures. He notes that the says that total US funding for these groups does not exceed not does groups these for funding US total that says in CentralAsia. of allitsproblemsYangthinksthat source supply routes and on anti-terrorism measures. But there are and India enable would This organisation. the in status for finance of source important an is trafficking drug since “energy an form to proposal 2007 its from aside that says has shown very little enthusiasm for the Chinese proposal Chinese for the enthusiasm has shownverylittle policy in Central Asia and China-US relations held at the at held relations China-US and Asia Central in policy hn Siin atclts h oiin f ot f the of most of opinion the articulates Shiliang Sheng for China and Russia to find common interests on which to which on interests common find to Russia and China for the in base economic Beijing’s enhance could it that fears be in favour of enlarging the SCO to include, for example, for include, to SCO the enlarging of favour in be would Russia that believes Zhao actors. different between with China, the question of Tibet and Tibetan refugees in According to Wang, the SCO must expand its mechanisms India, and the antagonism between India and Pakistan. for security cooperation by reaching out to and broadening Peng says China should apply the model it established in the involvement of the region’s states and the other settling its border disputes with the countries of Central existing organisations, especially the CSTO. The constant Asia in order to resolve its border issues with India. India competition between different countries and structures must respect its official declarations recognising Chinese must end so that everyone can work together towards an sovereignty over Tibet and not allow the development of effective settlement of the problems in Central Asia. an anti-Chinese movement on its territory. To solve the Pakistan problem, Peng proposes China act as moderator in tripartite discussions, which would improve relations between all three countries and facilitate the eventual entry of India and Pakistan into the SCO.

Chen Jidong and Zhang Renfeng say the best possible solution in the medium term would be the entry of both India and Pakistan to the SCO. Pakistan would be a valuable member for the SCO because of its centrality to the fight against terrorism and the settlement of the Afghan crisis. Pakistan would also give Central Asian exports access to the Indian Ocean. And since its own energy reserves are insufficient to meet its needs, it could be an important customer for Central Asian energy resources. But the country’s internal instability, particularly along its border with Afghanistan, makes it difficult to envisage membership in the short term.

Even though integrating more countries would be beneficial to the organisation and the region, prioritising SCO enlargement could turn into a distraction from the work of building cooperation among its current members. Wang Haiyun prefers to focus instead on the current difficulties of the SCO. The organisation seems unable to accomplish its stated mission to establish a system that can guarantee stability in the region. Wang says an agency must be set up to enforce rules within the organisation, so as to enable intelligence-sharing among member countries and help establish common action plans. In time, each country should also make available troops for rapid response operations. This would mean considerably expanding existing arrangements for joint military exercises and “peace missions”. Wang thinks the SCO needs to set up structures to help member states to settle their internal problems, especially where external powers are involved. Mechanisms must be set up for crisis meetings where countries could invite the SCO to intervene in their internal affairs. This would help achieve consensus among members and enable the organisation to get beyond the principle of non-intervention. Wang says that sometimes organisations need to “alienate” part of the sovereignty of a country in crisis, and the SCO needs to be ready to take on this responsibility. The SCO must also be prepared to confront the disorder left in Afghanistan after the eventual US withdrawal. Wang thinks the organisation should create a protective cordon around Afghanistan against drug trafficking and terrorist activities by involving the neighbouring states, especially Pakistan, as observers in the SCO. It could then more adequately support the central Afghan government in its fight against terrorism and in the country’s economic reconstruction. 5 6 September 2011 CHINA ANALYSIS Asia and the countries of the Caspian Sea. This cooperation This Sea. Caspian the of countries the and Asia 12 XuXiaotian is�� 11 Xie Wenxin is afaculty member of theCentral Institute for Minorities 10 QiangXiaoyunisDeputyDirector oftheDepartmentRussian- ae o a WT nlss srnts weaknesses, (strengths, analysis SWOT a on Based of theChinaUniversityGeosciences, Wuhan. as wellgeographicalterms,istooclosetotheUS. geopolitical in America, Latin China; from distance its and hn ad n hc i hs epltcl datgs Closer advantages. geopolitical has it which in and China to close is that region a is hand other the on Asia, Central Central with cooperation energy its deepen to wants China cnmc eeomn i te et f hn. h main boost The help China. of also west the could in development Asia economic Central with cooperation terrorism, of risk the instability, societal as such drawbacks the notes He Asia. Central and China between cooperation 9 Lan Peng is a faculty member of the Political Science and Law Institute oil and gas are all risky in different ways: the Middle East, Middle the ways: different in with risky all China are gas and supply oil could that world the of regions other energy greater for argues Peng Lan threats), opportunities, Central Asian StudiesattheShanghaiInstituteofInternationalStudies. at theChinainstituteofcontemporary internationalrelations(CICIR). natural gas reserves, is politically unstable; Africa has other which has 61 percent of global oil reserves and 41 percent of in Beijing. thinks ofitselfasaneighbourandprivilegedpartner. this region of the world, an area in which China increasingly is part of China’s new strategic and geopolitical approach to Xuebao - Xuebao World affairs u Xiaotian Xu China between cooperation gas and “Oil Wenxin, Xie Vol. 32,No.2,March2011. 2. Energy cooperation 2. betweenChina and China Economist of Science andEducation Lan Peng, “An analysis of the feasibility of cooperation of feasibility the of analysis “An Peng, Lan School Shangxueyuan Xuebao n te nry ae n eta Asia”; Central in game energy the and commentary”, and analysis Asia: Central and cooperation multi-lateral of future “The Xiaoyun, Qiang Threats)”, Opportunities, oprto i trs f a pipelines”, gas of terms in cooperation Central Asia ihn h SO a aayi o te rset for prospects the of analysis an – SCO the within n h eeg sco bten hn ad eta Asia Central and China between sector energy the in security trends in Central Asia”, Central in trends security u Zunzi “n nlss f eso pit and points tension of analysis “An Zhuangzhi, Sun Sources: ae o te WT ehd Srnts Weaknesses, (Strengths, method SWOT the on based by Jean-PierreCabestan , Vol.11,No.2,March2010,pp.42–45.

12 Journal of Xinjiang Normal University Normal of Xinjiang Journal n Wn Cn, Te AI a pipeline gas TAPI “The Cong, Wang and , February2011,pp.30–31. DeputyDirector of theCentral Asian studiesdivision , No.2,2011. – , November 2011, pp.240–241. Journal of Shanghai Journal Business Kejiao Daokan 11 Xinjiang Shifan Daxue Shijie Zhishi – The Guide 10 Jingjishi Shanghai – – 9 ,

sa r aray epn Cia o eue eedne on dependence reduce to China helping already are Asia sa f h “hoy f h Ciee i tra” ( threat” oil Chinese the of “theory the of Asia 13 Onthis last point, see Hélène Rousselot, SO poie a avnaeu dpoai cnet for context diplomatic advantageous an provides (SCO) o sals eeg coeain Ln as hn should China says Lan cooperation, energy establish To t ed t bid od eainhp wt al h littoral the all with relationships good build to needs It Uzbekistan, and 1,300 km in Kazakhstan before connecting Lan doesnotmention. 胁论 n prc. n 08 Cia motd . mlin tonnes million 3.3 imported China 2008, In piracy. and m billion 80–90 to 2020, in and in Xayn tess h rl o te C i the in SCO the of role the stresses Xiaoyun Qiang and the sofar unconvincing bytheSCO“energy role played development of cooperation, as is the battle over the legal the over battle the is as cooperation, of development Organisation Cooperation Shanghai the while cooperation, of expansion the for basis a gives China to supplies energy lb, hs ceto ws none i 20,bt which but 2007, in announced was creation whose club”, leaves he But world. the of regions other the of expense f N, ih 0 ecn cmn fo Asrla n the and Australia from coming percent 80 with LNG, of of Chinese oil companies in the region by enlarging their regionbyenlarging in the oil companies of Chinese out three obvious limitations of this policy: Central Asia’s Central policy: this of limitations obvious three out et l’AsieCentrale einl rsne ter aaeet tutrs ad the and structures, management their presence, regional sending already is Asia Central that fact The respectively. reserves, gas and oil Asian Central of importance relative relatively limited reserves, the presence of other customers, other of presence the reserves, limited relatively with its Central Asian neighbours and enhance the power the enhance and neighbours Asian Central its with supply world of percent 4.3 and percent 8 represent which relative the are cooperation against militating weaknesses were estimated at between 30 and 40 billion m billion 40 and 30 between at estimated were gas This 2009. December in operations started which towards ensuring China’s energy security. In 2008, China 2008, In security. energy China’s ensuring towards step big to a is project way this says Qian the country. the of all east the km 8,000 stretching grid, Chinese the to pipeline, gas Turkmenistan-Xinjiang of construction the n xrcig eore. t hud use rd relations trade pursue should It resources. extracting in implications foraccesstoresources. Central in influence the and diplomacy, energy inadequate implementation of multilateral energy cooperation and in and cooperation energy multilateral of implementation the at Asia Central on dependence energy its increasing sea and is therefore more exposed to the risks of terrorism of risks the to exposed more therefore is and sea states of the Caspian Sea, as well as with thestatesengaged periphery. its of security the ensuring in SCO the support its with along lake, a or sea a as Sea Caspian the of status supply from outside sources will rise to 50–60 billion m billion 50–60 to rise will sources outside from supply gas natural of supplies externally-sourced 2010, By supply. of policy China’s endorses Lan operations. their of size Energy Cluba(driving)factor of regional integration?] in powers, particularly Russia and the US, is a threat to the to threat a is US, the and Russia particularly powers, produced 76 billion m billion 76 produced in km 530 Turkmenistan, in km 188 for runs pipeline liquefied natural gas (LNG), which must be imported by beimported must which (LNG), gas natural liquefied pp.117–132. uue olbrto. h cmeiin ewe major between competition The collaboration. future l’OCS, unélément (moteur) d’intégration régionale backwardness of Chinese technology, China’s overdue and overdue China’s technology, Chinese of backwardness billion m , Zhongguo shiyou weixielun Zhongguoshiyou 3 , depending on external sources for 5.8 percent of ” , Relations internationales 13 3 of natural gas and consumed 80.7 consumed and gas natural of

). One opportunity is the is opportunity One ). 3 Iprs rm Central from Imports . “�� , No.145, Winter 2011, Le Club de l’énergie de ? ” , [IstheSCO 中国石油威 3 . In 2015, In . “ La Chine 3 , remaining 20 percent from Qatar, Algeria, and Nigeria. EU. This could increase China’s mediating influence in a troubled and complicated region. China should establish a Qiang says this gas pipeline is a “win-win” solution “cultural and information strategy” in Central Asia in order (共赢, gongying) that benefits the countries of Central Asia to counter “anti-Chinese feelings” fuelled by the Western as well as China. It strengthens Turkmenistan’s negotiating media. position on costs by increasing the number of customers for its gas, and it stimulates the Uzbek and Kazakh economies. But as Xu Xiaotian and Wang Cong point out in Shijie Zhishi, More importantly, this gas pipeline has provided a model the energy situation in Central Asia is in constant flux, and for multilateral cooperation within the SCO and contributed China must stay alert. On 11 December 2010, the presidents to “an appropriate resolution of the contradictions of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, along with between the countries of the region”. Qiang is alluding to the Indian Minister for Oil and the governor of the Asian the poor relations between Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Development Bank, signed an inter-governmental agreement and Kazakhstan, especially between Uzbekistan and its on the TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) neighbours. Qiang avoids emphasising Turkmenistan’s gas pipeline. This agreement provides for the construction absence from the SCO, but he hopes this pipeline will of a 1,735 km gas pipeline at a cost of $8 billion. When eventually lead to the country’s joining the organisation. completed in 2013–2014, this gas pipeline should enable He says the project has met with universal support, since Turkmenistan to export 33 billion m3 of gas, 5 billion m3 even Russia and the US have offered technical assistance – going to Afghanistan and 14 billion m3 to Pakistan and India. so it provides a good example of how China’s rise can be India and Pakistan hope this project will help them cope “benign”. with increasing demand: India’s Xie Wenxin thinks the energy situation in Central Asia and China should conduct effective energy diplomacy natural gas around the Caspian Sea remains complex and uncertain. consumption will The Caspian Sea is thought to hold 12–15 billion tonnes of in Central Asia by appointing a regional ambassador. exceed 110 billion oil and 11–12 trillion m3 of gas; Central Asia has 2 billion m3 by 2015, up tonnes of oil and 3 trillion m3 of gas. The internal economic from 60 billion m3 situation of the countries of Central Asia remains fragile in 2010, while in-country production in 2010 totalled just and their economies continue to depend heavily on energy 48 billion m3. And Pakistan’s shortfall in natural gas is set exports. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, other to triple between 2015 and 2025, rising from 28 billion m3 countries have helped them exploit their energy resources, to 100 billion m3. which has helped to weaken Russian influence in the region. Xie says US oil firms dominate, controlling 75 percent of new The TAPI gas pipeline is an old project – it was first oil fields with an investment of $30 billion, representing considered in 1995, but its start date has been repeatedly 30–40 percent of foreign investments in Kazakhstan postponed because of political instability in Afghanistan and Azerbaijan. Energy companies from the UK, France, and northwestern Pakistan. It will help Turkmenistan Turkey, Iran, and Japan are also present. The Central Asian to further diversify its gas exports: the country’s first gas countries are benefiting from competition between the pipeline to Iran came into operation in 1998, followed by powers. They have maintained close relations with Moscow, a second in January 2010, which together enable Iran to since much of their oil and gas exports continues to transit import 20 billion m3 of gas a year. The US is supporting via Russia. But for technical and financial reasons, they the TAPI project for strategic reasons: it is concerned about are in the process of re-examining their cooperation with a rival Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project, which Western oil companies. China should try to take advantage it opposes as long as Iran is the subject of international of the situation. sanctions. Xu and Wang note that TAPI has strategic value to the US because it can help “kill several birds with one Xie proposes a proactive strategy for China in the region. stone” (一石多鸟, yishi duoniao). It can block Iranian gas The country should support the current energy strategy exports, boost Afghanistan’s income through transit fees, of the countries of Central Asia and use its geopolitical and assist Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India in settling position to make Russia a counterbalance to the influence of their energy problems and stabilising political relations. the US and Japan. China must mobilise the major Chinese TAPI also strengthens US influence at the expense of that oil companies to extend their cooperation with Central of Russia and China. Thus TAPI is an integral part of US Asian states in resource exploitation and in constructing strategy in Central Asia. oil pipelines. China’s foreign currency reserves could be used to finance energy cooperation projects, in a model But the pipeline faces problems. Afghanistan remains that “showed its advantages” (展现其优点, zhanxian qi unstable and the security of its 735 km stretch of pipeline youdian) during the global financial crisis in 2008–2009. is uncertain and it is unclear whether Turkmenistan has China should conduct effective energy diplomacy in Central the capacity to satisfy the needs of current and potential Asia, including in the Caspian Sea region, by appointing a customers. Turkmenistan today produces some 66 billion regional ambassador, like that of the US, Russia, and the m3 of gas; it keeps 16 billion m3 for domestic consumption 7 8 September 2011 CHINA ANALYSIS This question highlights the new stakes and uncertainties and stakes new the highlights question This and exports the remaining 50 billion m hns eprs n te hns gvrmn ae aware are government Chinese the and experts Chinese Clearly, energy cooperation between China and Central Asia exported 20 billion m f prnrhp ul o te ieie o te C, rather SCO, the of sidelines the on built partnership a of Asia. Central in sector energy the in game” “great the of new greatgame,onlychangeiscertain. that the situation is complex and shifting – and that in this in that and – shifting and complex is situation the that than directly within the framework of the organisation. But through the TAPI pipeline, Turkmenistan needs to increase is expanding rapidly; it constitutes one of the cornerstones the of one constitutes it rapidly; expanding is rdcin s mte o ugny Te onr pas to produce 230 plans billion m country The urgency. of matter a as production be exported.Canitmeetthistarget? m billion 40 buy billion m 3 to Russia, down from its usual 30 billion m 3 Wt 3 blin m billion 33 With . 3 3 to Iran. In 2012, China will probably by 2030, of which 161 billion m 3 3 e t b exported be to set . In 2010, it sold 10 3 , and 3 will � �� Yusufu Abulaiti forecasts that China will depend on imports Xinjiang UniversityofEconomics. Xinjiang UniversityofEconomics. Xinjiang UniversityofEconomics. ( ( Economic cooperation between China and the five countries The writers try to defuse the idea of the “Chinese oil threat” oil “Chinese the of idea the defuse to try writers The steadily. growing been has – Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, n ti got sos o in f stopping. of sign no shows growth this and increased has trade of volume the years, few past the Over oprd o 0 ecn i 21. ig i as China’s says Ji Ling 2010. energy cooperation with in Central Asia is at a critical juncture percent 50 to compared stimulate to revenue generating as well as security, energy China enhanceits Central Asiacanhelp with cooperation f eta Ai – aahtn Ubksa, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, – Asia Central of compared to those of the IMF, according to which China-Central Asia Shanghai ResearchInstitute. to fulfil 80 percent of its demand for energy by 2020,as by energy for its demand of percent 80 fulfil to the developmentofitseconomy. says the energy resources of China and the Central Asian Central the and China of resources energy the says Europe intheMinistryofCommerce. trade reached€23billionin2010–almost $33billion.(IMFDoTS) y 0 ecn a er rahn $82 blin n 2010, in billion $18–20 reaching year, a percent 40 by 中国石油威胁论能源合作进入关键期 3. Economic cooperation beyond the energy Xinjiang”, Review Dong’ou Shichang Dong’ou European Market uuu blii “xlrn te osblte fr fast- for possibilities the “Exploring Abulaiti, Yusufu Market & Science i i, Te nentoaiain f h ya: financial yuan: the of internationalisation “The Xin, Li between cooperation trade and “Economic Ji, Ling Shichang Shensuo five countries of Central Asia”, Central of countries five hn ad eta Ai: tts polm and problems status, Asia: Central and China cooperation among member states of the SCO”, recommendations”, hu apn “eeoig rs-odr rd in trade cross-border “Developing Panpan, Zhou flows capital of security the of analysis “An Lihua, Zhou rcig h eooi itgain f ijag n the and Xinjiang of integration economic the tracking sector Sources: ewe Cia n Cnrl Asia”, Central and China between by Marie-HélèneSchwoob � � � LiXinisaresearcher at theCentreforEconomic Studies ofthe ZhouPanpan is a professor at the Institute of International Yusufu Abulaiti isanassociateprofessorattheInstitute of Finance, LingJiisthedeputydirector of theDepartment for Cooperation with at theInstituteofFinance, ZhouLihuaisanassociateprofessor �� , No.5,2010. , 2011,n°2. – , No.5,2011. – Hezuo JingjiYuKeji Study andExploration Russian CentralAsianandEastEuropean Z , , No.1,2011. hongguo shiyouweixielun 16 – , 15 Guoji Guancha Guoji –International nengyuan hezuoguanjianqijinru Russian CentralAsianandEast 17 14 Eluosi Zhongya Eluosi Dong’ou – Cooperative Economy , No.1,2011. Eluosi Zhongya Eluosi 19 – Abulaiti – ) Economic 18 Xuexi Yu Xuexi �T ��rade, ).

countries are “complementary”. Central Asia has significant China’s involvement in the Central Asian countries is still fossil fuel resources and great potential for hydroelectric limited to a relatively small number of sectors. Energy power. But China has its own large reserves of coal that it resources (oil and natural gas) and raw materials (uranium, could supply to its neighbours. cotton, iron ore, copper, and other non-ferrous metals) remain the major commodities traded. China is working China sees great potential in Central Asia’s growing on broadening its investment in transport, electricity, and consumer markets. At the moment the countries of Central telecommunications, and Li Xin suggests that China could Asia have a combined population of 60 million, and Abulaiti offer loans for oil (贷款换石油, daikuan huan shiyou). Ling says considerable demand already exists, in particular for Ji thinks it is in China’s interest, as well as Central Asia’s, electrical goods and motor vehicles. The region’s economies to support the economic development of Central Asian were deeply affected by the break-up of the USSR and they economies. China should invest in transport infrastructure, are struggling to return to levels of economic development energy supply, and other sectors. This could help improve under the planned economy. Central Asian countries have social stability, which has been undermined by extremism, insufficient industrial capacity to meet internal demand for separatism, and terrorism, as well as by declining growth consumer goods, and textile industries along with other since the fall of the USSR. China’s investment in Central light industries are under-developed relative to their former Asia currently amounts to more than $10 billion.20 Several capacity. In some cases, more than 70 percent of consumer hundred direct investment projects have been agreed, and goods have to be imported, and Abulaiti sees valuable other agreements are being negotiated. And the Chinese opportunities for China’s more developed manufacturing government is giving loans to enterprises that “go abroad” sector to meet growing demand. ( 走出去, China is beginning to feel the zouchuqu), as well The writers note that Russia too presents opportunities. weight of responsability for as to Central Asian With a population of around 140 million, adding the country the economic development of governments, to the China-Central Asia axis would create a market of Central Asia and it is seeking which use the more than 1.5 billion potential consumers. And Russia plays new sources of finance to funds to pay for a key role in determining the structure of regional relations. fuel economic cooperation. infrastructure The creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation projects carried out (SCO) has been a crucial factor in the development of by Chinese firms. economic and trade relations in the region. But the writers are more interested in the SCO’s capacity to stabilise Zhou Panpan thinks China should support companies in relations between China and Russia. Yusufu Abulaiti sees Central Asia by working to improve their competitiveness one obvious political advantage in the SCO for China: it has and helping them to diversify their offerings to goods with created institutional mechanisms for cooperation between greater added value. It should also supply loans and funds to China and the five countries of Central Asia. And, he says, finance their activities. Zhou Lihua says Chinese companies the creation of the SCO means China and Russia have have taken advantage of Central Asian countries’ policies “recognised their respective interests in the region” and encouraging foreign investment to develop a network of “established a compromise in the two countries’ strategies Wholly Owned Foreign Enterprises (WOFE), joint ventures, in the Central Asian region”. So, Russia is more than a and acquisitions. China is providing funds to consolidate potential consumer market – it is a political actor that this wave of Chinese exporting companies, and Central plays an essential part in ensuring economic and political Asian countries welcome Chinese companies’ involvement cooperation among the countries of Central Asia. in infrastructure projects that can promote social stability. Bilateral cooperation funds have been set up to develop Political relations may have stabilised, but the economic infrastructure and the industrial sector. climate is less certain. Zhou Lihua has doubts about the security of Chinese investment in the region. The Central However, Central Asian countries want more Chinese capital Asian countries have serious debt problems, and shifts in to help them get on the “express train of Chinese economic exchange and interest rates also present risk. Ling Ji thinks development” (搭乘中国经济发展快车, dacheng zhongguo the countries of Central Asia are politically unstable and jingji fazhan kuaiche). Ling Ji says that after the financial suffer from “three evils” (三股势力, sangushili) – religious crisis, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan asked China extremism, ethnic separatism, and terrorism – which could for credit to finance 56 priority infrastructure projects at endanger economic and trade cooperation. Ling thinks a total cost of $16 billion. China is beginning to feel the that the centralised authoritarianism of Central Asian weight of responsibility for the economic development of countries is a worrying factor for foreign companies. While Central Asia and it is seeking new sources of finance to fuel authoritarianism can speed up decision-making in major economic cooperation. China has allocated $10 billion to collaboration projects, it means foreign companies have no set up economic cooperation on regional development. Ling way of controlling or influencing decisions in the countries. Ji says that new avenues for financing development must

20 Sun Zhuangzhi, “An analysis of tension points and security trends in Central Asia”, Xinjiang Shifan Daxue Xuebao, Vol. 32, No. 2, March 2011. 9 10 September 2011 CHINA ANALYSIS i i sy ta atog te C cutis ae been have countries SCO the although that says Xin Li finance developmentcouldbeestablished. and strengthening commercial banks, a regional system to system regional a banks, commercial strengthening and SCO an of creation The solutions. new to contribute and a regional financial system, remote as it may seem, could seem, may it as remote system, financial regional a vnuly e h dcsv fco i aheig regional achieving in factor decisive the be eventually listed be should countries member SCO from companies financing, Western on dependence break To cooperation. f hi cnrl ak ad sals a einl platform regional a establish and banks central their of begun already has (Russia market financial Chinese the on with any future financial crisis. The successful creation of creation successful The crisis. financial future any with with working from benefit can needs, energy large with monitoring systems and create support structures to deal to structures support create and systems monitoring h ohr ebr tts f h SO ht ed Chinese need that SCO the of states member other the country capital-rich a as China, where sector, energy the and Moscow agreements, bilateral of implementation the investment. To build multilateral financial cooperation, financial multilateral build To investment. stability andinternationalrecognition. in cooperation financial for possibilities exploring suggests learned lessons the crisis, financial the by affected severely itn cmais n h Hn Kn mre) Through market). Kong Hong the on companies listing C cutis hud oriae h mntr policies monetary the coordinate should countries SCO Li centres. financial international become could Shanghai institutions financial international attract to role SCO’s for exchanging financial information. They need to set up set to need They information. financial exchanging for from it have created the potential for closer regional financial the consolidating By explored. further be should fund be found, and all the countries involved need to work on work to need involved countries the all and found, be Academy of Social Sciences hn h ros ht e t te al f rsdn Bakiyev President of fall the to led that riots the When 00 a bogt bu b itra fcos sc as such factors, internal by about brought was 2010 government protestmovementsthat developedinthepost-communist Kyrgyzstan is the only country that has both American and American both has that country only the is Kyrgyzstan Russian military bases on its soil. Chinese analysts are analysts soil. Chinese on its Russian militarybases the at it places position geographic central its However, overthrew Kyrgyzstan’s President Askar Akayev andhisgovernmenton and poverty, corruption and ethnic conflict, but agree but conflict, ethnic and corruption poverty, and 2010, April in Kyrgyzstan in out broke government his and ot hns aayt tik h “ygz eouin of revolution” “Kyrgyz the think analysts Chinese Most with Central Asia andtheUnitedStates. 24 March2005followingthe elections of 27Februaryand13 March is �� f ie n dmgah o ntrl n eeg resources. energy and natural or demography and size of Central Asia, Eastern Europe and Russia at the Chinese Academy of China (RenminUniversity)inBeijing. Her researchfocusesonrelations Organisation Studies Centre and theShanghaiCentre forInternational at the Institute for International Relations at the People’s University of not one of the main players in the region, either in terms in either region, the in players main the of one not revolution” societies ofCentralandEasternEurope andCentral Asia. Social Sciences. and Studies Shanghai(CJSS), Vice-President of theChineseSocietyof Studies andInstitute ofEuropeanand Asian StudiesattheShanghai ht xenl atr wr as ivle. ygztn is Kyrgyzstan involved. also were factors external that conflicts. internal its resolved satisfactorily nor country the the international community wokeuptothecountry’s intersection of the geopolitical interests of the great powers. great of the interests geopolitical of the intersection stagnation economic fragmentation, social and inequality political instability. Kyrgyzstan had experienced a “colour a experienced had Kyrgyzstan instability. political Middle EastStudies. referred toasthe“tuliprevolution”. 4. AddressinginstabilityinKyrgyzstan Xinjiang Normal University Xinjiang Normal World, Daxue Xuebao – Journal of Xinjiang University Daxue Xuebao–JournalofXinjiang i Lhn, Te motne f ygztn n the and Kyrgyzstan of importance “The Lihong, Jia 2010. (6), November2011,pp.91–96. Zaobao Wang u Gang, Lu Pan Guang, “Troubles in Kyrgyzstan: the role of Russia, of role the Kyrgyzstan: in “Troubles Guang, Pan China”, Martina Bassan Zhao Huirong, “The hidden reasons behind the troubles the behind reasons hidden “The Huirong, Zhao the United States and Europe, and their influence on influence their and Europe, and States United the take?”, Organization Cooperation Shanghai the n Kyrgyzstan”, in onChina”, situation current its of influence Sources: ZhaoHuirong( PanGuang( LuGang( JiaLihong( ��The 23 “�� colour revolutions�� No. 8,August2010,pp.23–25. Xinjiang Shifan DaxueXuebao- 25 Tobe i Krysa: ht cin should action what Kyrgyzstan: in “Troubles 陆钢 n 05 bt h cag nihr stabilised neither change the but 2005, in 贾丽红潘光 , June2010. ) isajournalistat 赵会荣 Dangdai Shijie –The Contemporary ) isDirectoroftheShanghaiCooperation ) isadoctoral studentininternational politics ) , isaresearcher at theResearch Institute on ”�� as well as PresidentoftheCentre of Jewish isthenamegiventonon-violent anti- 22 Lianhe ZaobaoWang. N. 1 4, December (4), 31 No. , 21 24

Journal of The coupthat Xinjiang , No. 38 Lianhe mostly concerned with the international dimension of the of reality”. Lu thinks that if the SCO refuses to act because of country’s current situation, and what it means for China in its principles, its prestige in the region will be affected, and terms of its strategic interests in Kyrgyzstan, its national outside parties might step in to take action instead. security, and its position as a member state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Zhao Huirong thinks the SCO needs to find new ways to combat terrorism, secessionism, and fundamentalism in Kyrgyzstan was ruled by China from the Han period until Kyrgystan, and should concentrate in particular on the the end of the Qing dynasty. Because of its geographic activities of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the location, it has always been of great strategic importance influence of Hizb ut-Tahrir in southern Kyrgyzstan.27 If for China. Jia Lihong says this small Central Asian country the situation in Afghanistan deteriorates as US and NATO is important to China in terms of traditional security, as a forces withdraw, extremist religious groups in Central strategic entry point to Xinjiang: “For China, Kyrgyzstan’s Asia could strengthen relations with terrorist groups in security corresponds to Xinjiang’s own – a threat for Afghanistan, so the SCO must act to prevent future terrorist Kyrgyzstan is also a threat for Xinjiang (…) and for this threats. Politically, the SCO should enhance cooperation reason, China must defend this country against any among its member countries, promote mutual confidence, attempt by another country to occupy or subjugate it.” As and safeguard the security and stability of the member regards non-traditional security, Kyrgyzstan is crucial to countries. And since Kyrgyzstan needs the financial support China’s fight against terrorism, secessionism, and religious of the SCO to ensure stability and development, the SCO extremism,26 especially in relation to the separatist must come up with an appropriate aid scheme for the movements in southern Xinjiang. These separatists aim to country. obtain the separation of Xinjiang from China and establish If the SCO refuses to act because what they call “the Republic of Eastern Turkestan” (东突厥 of its principles, its prestige Pan Guang says any 斯坦, dong tujuesitan). Jia says the separatist movement in the region will be affected, intervention by the in Xinjiang has carried out several terrorist actions and and outside parties might SCO in Kyrgyzstan that they are supported by “encouragement and external step in to take action instead. must necessarily aid” from Russia and some Western countries. Kyrgyzstan be limited. is also important to China in its efforts to diversify energy Since a military supplies to ensure energy security. China’s main suppliers alliance is out of the question, if the situation in Kyrgyzstan of oil in Africa and the Middle East are politically unstable, deteriorates, only the United Nations as the representative and its supply route through the Straits of Malacca is also of the international community can intervene. But Pan problematic. Central Asia is beginning to be seen as the interprets the April 2010 “Joint Declaration on Cooperation “new storehouse” of energy resources for the twenty-first by the Secretariats of the UN and the SCO” to mean that century. Although Kyrgyzstan has itself only limited oil any action by the UN in Central Asia must be approved by reserves, it is important to China as a port of entry for oil the SCO. As a member of the SCO, China has a privileged from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. position in Central Asia, and it has to be ready to assert it. It cannot allow other powers like Russia and the US to exert So how should China respond to the internal crisis in too much influence in such a strategically important region. Kyrgyzstan and the growing influence of Russia and the US in the region? Because of the situation in Xinjiang as well Jia and Zhao think Russian and US interference in as China’s strategic interests in Kyrgyzstan, Lu Gang says Kyrgyzstan’s internal affairs has been a crucial factor “China cannot simply stand by and do nothing”. Pan Guang in the development of the country’s internal crisis. Pan thinks China must support stability and development in acknowledges that there is no proof that Russia was Kyrgyzstan so as to support regional stability and encourage involved in any conspiracy to bring about the 2010 coup. good relations between Kyrgyzstan and China. At the But he says that Russia’s support for the Kyrgyz opposition same time, China must be aware that the US and Russian had the clear goal of overthrowing the president. And just military bases in the country give those countries a degree before the fall of the Bakayev government, the USA was of influence over Kyrgyzstan’s internal affairs. in frequent contact with Roza Otunbayeva, the opposition leader who became president of the Kyrgyz Provisional China’s position as a member of the SCO complicates its Government in April 2010. China needs to take Russian and relationship with Kyrgyzstan – as an SCO member, China US involvement into account in coming up with a political cannot act unilaterally in Kyrgyzstan but must instead act strategy that can best help it to defend its interests and through the organisation. If the SCO were to intervene in borders. Kyrgyzstan on its own initiative, Beijing would most likely support it. China respects the principle of non-interference, but, Lu says, “principles must be understood in the context �� A Muslim group set up in Amman, Jordan, in 1953, the Hizb ut-�T��ahrir was the product of a split in the Muslim Brotherhood. The movement is �� Religious extremism (宗教极端主义, zongjiao jiduan zhuyi), active today in over 70 countries and has several million followers and international terrorism (国际恐怖主义, guoji kongbu zhuyi) and sympathisers throughout the world. It is especially active in Central Asia, separatism (民族分裂主义, minzu fenlie zhuyi) are more generally known where it is subject to severe repression by the authorities, for example in as the “three evils” (三股势力 san gu shili). Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 11 12 September 2011 CHINA ANALYSIS Airport, 25kmfromthecapital, Bishkek. Openedin2001,itisusedasa Afghanistan to the Fergana Valley and turn it into an axis for strengthen to hopes US the that adds Zhao Afghanistan. ( style” management American The writers conclude that both countries want to prevent to want countries both that conclude writers The Iran. Zhao thinks “there might be new foundation for the for foundation new be might “there thinks Zhao Iran. US presence in Kyrgyzstan: “American troops have already have troops “American Kyrgyzstan: in presence US He points to the fact that the US has contacted the interim the contacted has US the that fact the to points He oh h U ad usa ae upid uaiain aid humanitarian supplied have Russia and US the Both a retain Russia help to there is base the thinks Zhao But shi hao qi and Russia were to increase their military presence, it could its protects each affairs inwhich of current state the accept confrontation any avoid to want Russia and US The affairs. the “from that notes Zhao bases. military their and interests their threaten could that instability political any analysts think it is interesting that in Kyrgyzstan, they have government on several occasions to make sure the base will base government onseveraloccasionstomakesurethe destabilise the situation in Kyrgyzstan still further, which further, still Kyrgyzstan in situation the destabilise to theyprefer So from. disengage to difficult prove could countries are reluctant to get too involved in Kyrgyz internal and Afghanistan with border common a have not does against fight US the that says Jia Asia”. Central controlling in conflict the in use NATO’s for available be to continue 2005 ofabaseinneighbouringUzbekistan, Manasisthelastremaining �� own strategic ambitions in the area. ambitions intheJiaRussian own strategicthinksthe 2001, Since presence. US the to objects that country only the thinks He present.” still are they where country only from troops its move to like would US the that idea old of concern main the country, the in violence of outbreak neither wants to get drawn into a complicated conflict that conflict complicated a into drawn get to wants neither real intention is to “stand up to China”. But China is not the toreinforce and and China Russia of influence regional would have consequences for the neighbouring countries – countries neighbouring the for consequences have would the is China, for importance strategic enormous has which ( sympathy” “mutual a sees Zhang iiay ae n ygztn s lo oue o China. to and space on Soviet former the over influence on monopoly focused also is Kyrgyzstan in base military the US and NATO has been to secure the Manas Air Base”. ht ol dsut hi cret mcbe eain, and relations, amicable current their disrupt could that two the that agree Pan and Zhao unrest. the assistance suppress to military refused have they but Kyrgyzstan, to but tried both have governments Russian and Kyrgyz the the for pretext a only is Taliban Afghan the and terrorism US baseinCentral Asia. t psto i daig wt Agaitn Pksa, and Pakistan, Afghanistan, with dealings in position its it containthe in thecountrytohelp its militarypresence neet b mitiig t on iiay ae I te US the If base. military own its maintaining by interests limit thecapacityofUSandNATOtoactinregion. left other countries in Central Asia, while Kyrgyzstan, which ic te olpe f h US, usa n te S have US the and Russia USSR, the of collapse the Since failed to persuade the US to close Manas. Russia too has too Russia Manas. close to US the persuade to failed en ke t claoae n codnt ter cin” – actions” their coordinate and collaborate to “keen been Chinese So Asia. Central in influence for competing been military base located at Kyrgyzstan’s main airport, Manas International base forthewarin Afghanistan. has beenurging Bishkektoclosethebasesince2005.Sinceclosure in

��The �T ��ransit CentreatManas,previouslyManas Air Base,isaUS ad i Lhn nts “omn Russian- “common a notes Lihong Jia and ) The ShanghaiCooperationOrganisation 美俄共治相互示好期 , mei-e gongzhi , xianghu 28 ).

Chinese Xinjiang.” ersns n xrml sros het o te euiy of security the for threat serious extremely an represents the enormous influence of the US and Russia in Kyrgyzstan including China. Jia concludes: “It can be safely said that said safely be can “It concludes: Jia China. including Translation: PeterBrown Editing: JustineDoody About the authors: ABOUT ECFR The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is the first Martina Bassan is a PhD Candidate at the pan-European think-tank. Launched in October 2007, its Department of Political Science and International objective is to conduct research and promote informed debate Relations of Sciences Po, she can be reached at across Europe on the development of coherent, effective and [email protected]. values-based European foreign policy.

Jean-Pierre Cabestan is Professor and ECFR has developed a strategy with three distinctive elements Head of the Department of Government and that define its activities: International Studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. He is alsa associate researcher • A pan-European Council. ECFR has brought together a fellow at Asia Centre, he can be reached at distinguished Council of over one hundred Members - politicians, decision makers, thinkers and business people from the EU’s [email protected]. member states and candidate countries - which meets once a year as a full body. Through geographical and thematic task Jérôme Doyon is the chief editor of China Analysis forces, members provide ECFR staff with advice and feedback and a PhD Candidate at Sciences Po, on policy ideas and help with ECFR’s activities within their own he can be reached at [email protected]. countries. The Council is chaired by Martti Ahtisaari, Joschka Fischer and Mabel van Oranje. François Godement is the director for strategy • A physical presence in the main EU member states. ECFR, at Asia Centre and a senior research fellow at uniquely among European think-tanks, has offices in Berlin, the European Council on Foreign Relations, London, Madrid, Paris, Rome and Sofia. In the future ECFR plans he can be reached at [email protected]. to open offices in Warsaw and Brussels. Our offices are platforms for research, debate, advocacy and communications. • A distinctive research and policy development process. ECFR Marie-Hélène Schwoob is Project Manager has brought together a team of distinguished researchers and of Energy Program at Asia Centre and a PhD practitioners from all over Europe to advance its objectives Candidate at Sciences Po, she can be reached at through innovative projects with a pan-European focus. ECFR’s [email protected]. activities include primary research, publication of policy reports, private meetings and public debates, ‘friends of ECFR’ gatherings in EU capitals and outreach to strategic media outlets. ABOUT ASIA CENTRE ECFR is backed by the Soros Foundations Network, the Spanish Asia Centre, founded in August 2005, conducts research and foundation FRIDE organizes debate on international relations and strategic issues, (La Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo as well as on the political and economic transformations in the Exterior), the Bulgarian Communitas Foundation, the Italian Asia-Pacific; promotes cooperation and second track dialogue UniCredit group and the Stiftung Mercator. ECFR works in with partners in Asia, Europe and the world; publishes timely partnership with other organisations but does not make grants information and analysis from the region, executive briefs and to individuals or institutions. reports from our research team. www.ecfr.eu Asia Centre programs cover the prevention of conflicts and regional integration, the challenges of democracy and This issue of China analysis was produced with the support of governance, globalisation and national strategies, energy, Stiftung Mercator. proliferation and sustainable development. They also draw contributions and viewpoints from research associates and a www.stiftung-mercator.de network of research institutions.

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