Jim Barnes Journal

The Theories of an 11-year Stardust Consultant AprilApril 16, 25, 2019 2019 these events, and don’t shy away Analysis with the from challenging an ace when his team is not hitting and scor- ing. ODI Forecasting Method ERAs should never be a bet There is a particularly sensi- fense-Defense Index system in -tor’s reliance factor, pitching is ble reason why I don’t get ex- all sports. (The format may not 80% of baseball. If I were to tremely engaged in baseball be- change from sport to sport.) use runs against, it would be fore the demise of April. Baseball is the only sport “total” and not just “earned.” I rely on both team and where 45% winners can gener- Teams, in my opinion, deter databases, extracting ate a good income. -mine winners and losers in con- needed information from each to When handicapping base- tests; determine if it is use the ODI to speculate final ball, my recommendation is to going to be a high or low scor- scores. always play road teams, watch ing contest. Team databases can be used streaks and team history with There are less than a dozen as rapidly as five games into the starters in baseball that are dan- season, but it requires four or gerous to go against, each can five starts before pitching statis- win without much offensive tics are established. backing. This should indicate the re- More than 90% of pitcher quired number of starts will take “W-L records are related to of- until the end of April to become fensive production. important. For the majority of starters, In previous years, I was allowing three or less is a win wise enough to stick with this and giving up five or more is a guideline. In a hurry to let peo- possible setback. ple know that I was going back online, I began to use ERAs as Scoring and streaks is really promptly as established instead what is of waiting for the correct TRGS about. The ODI, as other articles and Over-5 and Un-der-3 statis- in the Journal, are intended to tics. get you thinking in a new direc- This is the meat of the Of- tion - “outside the box.”

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Issue Number: Copyright Barnes 2019 Jim Barnes Journal 2019 Major League Team ODI

LAST SEVEN DAYS LAST FIVE DAYS LAST THREE DAYS Team W-L Ov5-Un3 OFF Team W-L Ov5-Un3 OFF Team W-L Ov5-Un3 OFF Arizona 5-2 2-3 3 Arizona 3-2 3-2 3 Arizona 2-1 1-1 3 Atlanta 2-4 3-2 5 Atlanta 2-2 3-0 3 Atlanta 1-1 2-0 6 Baltimore 2-5 2-2 4 Baltimore 1-4 1-1 4 Baltimore 1-2 1-1 4 Boston 3-3 2-1 5 Boston 3-2 2-1 5 Boston `-1 0-1 3 4-1 2-2 4 Chicago Cubs 3-1 1-2 3 Chicago Cubs 2-0 1-1 4 Chicago Sox 2-4 3-1 5 Chicago Sox 2-2 2-1 5 Chicago Sox 1-2 1-1 4 Cincinnati 4-2 1-1 4 Cincinnati 3-1 1-0 5 Cincinnati 1-1 1-0 5 Cleveland 2-3 2-2 4 Cleveland 1-3 2-1 5 Cleveland 0-2 0-1 3 Colorado 4-2 2-0 6 Colorado 3-2 1-0 5 Colorado 2-1 1-0 5 Detroit 4-2 2-1 5 Detroit 3-1 1-0 5 Detroit 3-0 1-0 5 Houston 2-4 3-1 6 Houston 2-3 3-0 7 Houston 1-1 2-0 6 Kansas City 2-5 2-3 3 Kansas City 0-5 1-3 2 Kansas City 0-3 1-1 4 LA Angels 1-6 2-0 6 LA Angels 1-4 1-0 5 LA Angels 1-2 1-0 5 LA Dodgers 4-2 1-2 3 LA Dodgers 2-2 1-2 3 LA Dodgers 1-1 1-1 4 Miami 3-2 1-2 3 Miami 3-1 1-1 4 Miami 1-1 0-1 3 Milwaukee 1-6 0-1 3 Milwaukee 1-4 0-0 4 Milwaukee 0-3 0-0 4 Minnesota 5-2 4-0 8 Minnesota 4-1 3-0 7 Minnesota 2-1 1-0 5 NY Mets 3-3 1-2 3 NY Mets 3-2 1-1 4 NY Mets 2-1 1-0 5 NY Yankees 6-1 4-1 7 NY Yankees 5-0 4-0 8 NY Yankees 3-0 2-0 6 Oakland 3-3 2-3 3 Oakland 2-3 2-2 4 Oakland 2-1 2-0 6 Philadelphia 2-5 1-4 1 Philadelphia 1-4 1-3 2 Philadelphia 0-3 0-3 1 Pittsburgh 3-3 1-2 3 Pittsburgh 2-3 1-2 3 Pittsburgh 0-3 1-2 3 San Diego 2-3 1-3 2 San Diego 2-2 1-2 3 San Diego 2-0 1-0 5 San Francisco 2-4 2-3 3 San Francisco 2-2 1-2 3 San Francisco 2-0 1-0 5 Seattle 3-3 3-1 6 Seattle 2-2 2-0 6 Seattle 0-2 1-0 5 St. Louis 5-1 4-0 8 St. Louis 4-1 3-0 7 St. Louis 3-0 2-0 5 Tampa Bay 3-4 2-0 6 Tampa Bay 2-3 1-0 5 Tampa Bay 2-1 1-0 5 Texas 3-3 2-2 4 Texas 2-3 2-3 4 Texas 1-2 1-1 4 Toronto 4-2 3-1 6 Toronto 3-1 2-0 6 Toronto 1-1 1-0 5 Washington 4-3 2-1 5 Washington 2-3 1-1 4 Washington 2-1 1-0 5

After more than 20-games is the basic runs that a team was (1) use three games and (2) have been played by major should score and unadjusted for ignore home and away. The soft- league teams, season to date sta- any streaks and rating of the ware was created for primary use tistics are about as valuable as opposing starting pitcher (DEF). in hockey and soccer, some pro- “Toys R Us” stock. Almost eve- Many years ago, as previ- visions were built in for Ameri- ry team will average 5-4 or 4-5 ously mentioned, a German- can sports. runs per game. produced forecast program Unfortunately, the software This is the point where the (Betting Genuis) produced designer input a date after which database length must be reduced. scores under various conditions. it would no longer work. The above table shows team sta- One could choose road, home or tistics for the period of April 17 overall and the number of games The software could be set to 23 and breaks this into three (three, five, ten, etc.) up to reflect past history in any brackets; games played in the sport and project future scores. The program used chess past seven, five and three days. From experience I recall the evaluation formulas to deter- 1990s program was powerful in The most important statistic mine the forecasts, and in re- both soccer and hockey; just as it is the Offense (OFF) index – this view, the strongest combination was intended.

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The second most important after the six game victorious Royals have won five, lost six ingredient in my opinion is how run. and all the decisions came in each team is playing at present. When looking at a team that mini-streaks. Streaks reveal this infor- is currently on either a winning Old-timers retiring to some mation with just a single glance. or losing streak, try to specu- rest home in outer space im- As an example, Milwaukee has late how long either might last. pressed on me that “only an idi- one major streak—six consecu- Past history from this season ot would go against a streak.” tive victories in late March. might supply the answer. The Try not to break that rule - it Mariners opened with three majority of streaks last two or has little benefit. I can testify wins, lost one and won four three games. to that as there have been a more. Sixteen of their victories Any run of four or more is number of times when I felt the have occurred in streaks of rare, making Kansas City’s forecast was missing something. three, four and six. The solo string of ten straight losses a Perhaps, I am remembering losing skid came immediately rarity. Since that low point the the prior season too well.

Streaks Arizona L1 W1 L2 W2 L1 W2 L1 W1 L4 W4 L1 W1 L1 W1 Atlanta L3 W4 L1 W3 L2 W2 L4 W2 Baltimore L1 W4 L4 W1 L4 W1 L1 W1 L2 W1 L4 Boston L1 W1 L4 W1 L3 W1 L1 W2 L1 W1 L3 W3 Cincinnati W1 L8 W4 L4 W3 L1 Chicago Cubs W1 L6 W1 L1 W1 L1 W2 L1 W4 L1 W1 Chicago Sox L2 W1 L1 W2 L5 W1 L1 W3 L2 W1 L1 W1 Cleveland L1 W1 L1 W1 L1 W5 L1 W1 L3 W4 L2 Colorado W2 L4 W1 L8 W5 L1 W2 Detroit W1 L2 W1 L1 W5 L1 W1 L5 W1 L1 W1 Houston W1 L3 W1 L2 W10 L1 W1 L3 Kansas City W2 L10 W3 L2 W2 L4 LA Angels L1 W1 L5 W6 L1 W1 L6 W1 L1 LA Dodgers W1 L1 W2 L1 W5 L6 W6 L1 W1 Miami L2 W2 L4 W1 L5 W1 L4 W2 L1 Milwaukee W1 L1 W6 L1 W1 L3 W2 L1 W2 L3 W1 L2 Minnesota W1 L1 W3 L1 W1 L1 W1 L1 W2 L2 W1 L1 W4 NY Mets W2 L1 W3 L1 W1 L2 W3 L2 W1 L2 W1 L2 W1 NY Yankees W1 L2 W1 L2 W3 L4 W1 L1 W2 L1 W4 Oakland L2 W1 L1 W4 L1 W1 L4 W4 L2 W1 L3 W1 Philadelphia W4 L1 W1 L1 W2 L2 W1 L1 W1 L1 W2 L2 W1 L1 Pittsburgh L1 W1 L2 W4 L1 W1 L1 W1 L1 W5 L2 San Diego W2 L1 W1 L2 W3 L1 W1 L1 W4 L6 W1 San Francisco L2 W1 L1 W1 L3 W1 L2 W1 L1 W3 L1 W1 L4 W1 Seattle W3 L1 W4 L1 W6 L6 W3 L1 St. Louis L1 W1 L2 W2 L2 W5 L1 W1 L2 W1 L1 W3 Tampa Bay L1 W5 L1 W1 L1 W5 L1 W3 L4 W1 Texas L1 W2 L1 W3 L4 W1 L1 W4 L1 W2 L1 Toronto L1 W2 L3 W1 L4 W1 L2 W1 L1 W2 L1 W4 Washington L2 W1 L1 W2 L1 W1 L1 W2 L1 W1 L2 W2 L2 W1 L1

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Pitcher Logs - Updated as of April 23 The logs are from games played as of April 23. TRGS is Team Record in Games Started, U3-O5 is number of starts where opponent scored less than three wins (a WIN) followed by times hurler allowed more than five runs (a LOSS). This is their real record in my approach. This data leads to an adjustment that can be made to the OFF rating of the foe.

Arizona TRGS U3-O5 Def Cincinnati TRGS U3-O5 Def LA Angaels TRGS U3-O5 Def Zack Godley 3-2 1-4 +2 Luis Castillo 3-2 3-0 -4 Jose Barria 0-1 0-0 +1 Zack Greinke 4-1 1-1 -3 Anthony DeSclafani 1-3 1-2 +3 Trevor Cahill 1-4 2-2 +3 Merrill Kelly 1-3 1-0 +1 Sonny Gray 2-3 2-1 +0 Matt Harvey 2-3 1-2 +2 Robbie Ray 2-3 1-1 +1 Tyler Mahle 1-3 2-3 +1 Felix Pena 2-3 2-1 +0 3-2 3-1 -3 2-2 2-1 -3 Hansel Robles 1-0 0-1 +0 1-2 2-0 -1 Atlanta TRGS U3-O5 Def Cleveland TRGS U3-O5 Def Chris Stratton 2-2 1-1 +1 Max Fried 3-1 1-1 -2 Trevor Bauer 3-2 2-1 -2 Kevin Gausman 1-3 1-2 +3 Shane Bieber 3-1 3-1 -4 LA Dodgers TRGS U3-O5 Def Sean Newcomb 3-0 1-1 +1 Carlos Carrasco 2-3 2-2 +1 Walker Buehler 3-1 2-2 -2 Julio Teheran 3-2 0-3 +2 Mike Clevinger 2-0 1-0 -3 Caleb Ferguson 0-1 0-0 +1 1-1 0-1 +1 Corey Kluber 2-3 2-2 +1 Clayton Kershaw 2-0 0-0 -2 0-1 0-1 +2 Jefry Rodriguez 0-1 0-0 +1 Kenta Maeda 3-2 1-3 +1 0-3 0-1 +4 Hyun-Jim Ryu 2-2 0-0 +0 Colorado TRGS U3-O5 Def Ross Stripling 3-2 1-0 -2 Baltimore TRGS U3-O5 Def Tyler Anderson 1-2 0-2 +3 Julio Urias 2-2 1-2 +1 Dyian Bundy 1-4 0-2 +4 Chad Bettis 0-3 0-2 +4 Andrew Cashner 5-1 2-1 -4 2-3 1-1 +1 Miami TRGS U3-O5 Def Alex Cobb 0-2 0-2 +4 Jon Gray 2-3 3-1 -1 Sandy Alcantara 2-2 2-2 +0 David Hess 1-4 0-4 +4 0-1 0-1 +2 Pablo Lopez 2-3 1-0 +0 Nate Karns 1-1 0-0 +0 German Marquez 4-1 3-1 -4 Trevor Richards 0-5 1-3 +5 John Means 0-2 0-1 +3 Antonio Senzatela 1-1 1-1 +0 Caleb Smith 2-2 1-1 +0 1-2 1-2 +2 Jose Urena 1-4 0-3 +4 Detroit TRGS U3-O5 Def Boston TRGS U3-O5 Def Matt Boyd 3-2 2-1 -2 Milwaukee TRGS U3-O5 Def Nathan Eovaldi 3-1 0-2 +0 Matt Moore 2-0 0-0 -2 Chase Anderson 1-0 1-0 -2 Rick Porcello 1-3 0-3 +4 Daniel Norris 1-0 0-0 -1 Corbin Burnes 2-2 0-2 +2 David Price 2-2 1-1 +0 Tyson Ross 2-2 1-1 +0 Jhoulys Chacin 2-3 0-1 +2 Eduardo Rodriguez 2-2 0-2 +2 Spencer Turnbull 2-3 1-0 +0 Zach Davies 3-2 2-0 -3 Chris Sale 0-5 1-4 +4 Jordan Zimmerman 2=3 2-3 +2 Adrian Houser 0-1 0-1 +2 Hector Velazquez 1-2 1-1 +1 Freddy Peralta 2-2 1-3 +2 Houston TRGS U3-O5 Def Brandon Woodruff 3-2 1-2 +0 Chicago Cubs TRGS U3-O5 Def Gerrit Cole 2-3 1-1 +1 Tyler Chatwood 1-0 1-0 -1 Collin McHugh 3-2 2-2 -1 Minnesota TRGS U3-O5 Def Yu Darvish 1-4 1-3 +4 3-2 2-1 -2 Jose Berrios 5-1 2-0 -4 Cole Hamels 3-1 2-1 -2 Brad Peacock 2-1 1-2 +0 3-1 0-3 +1 Kyle Hendricks 1-3 1-2 +3 Justin Verlander 4-1 3-1 -5 Jake Odorizzi 2-3 2-2 +1 Jon Lester 2-1 1-1 -1 Martin Perez 1-1 0-0 +0 Jose Quintana 3-1 3-1 -4 Kansas City TRGS U3-O5 Def Michael Pena 2-2 1-2 +1 Homer Bailey 2-3 2-2 +1 Chicago Sox TRGS U3-O5 Def Heath Fillmyer 0-3 0-2 +4 NY Mets TRGS U3-O5 Def Manny Bauelos 1-0 1-0 -1 Jakob Junis 2-3 0-4 +5 Jacob deGrom 2-2 1-2 +1 Lucas Giolito 2-2 0-2 +2 Brad Keller 3-3 1-1 +0 0-1 0-1 +2 Reynaldo Lopez 2-3 1-3 +3 Jorge Lopez 0-5 0-4 +5 Steven Matz 4-1 1-1 -3 Ivan Nova 0-5 0-3 +4 Noah Syndergaard 3-2 0-4 +3 Carlos Rodon 3-2 1-0 -2 Jason Vargas 2-1 0-1 +0 Ervin Santana 1-1 0-1 +1 Zack Wheeler 2-3 2-2 +1

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Temple for Final Score Forecast Write down Team A offense, then subtract Team B pitcher DEF and finally add Team A’s streak. The step by Off Def Strk Final step is 7+1+1 or 9 runs. Team B’s final is 5-2-1 or 2. Team A 7 -2 +1 = 9 Team A to win this matchup 9-2. Team B 5 +1 -1 = 2

NY Yankees TRGS U3-O5 Def Seattle TRGS U3-O5 Def Once the season is under- Domingo German 3-1 1-1 -2 Marco Gonzalex 5-1 1-1 -4 way and you have chosen the J. A. Happ 3-2 0-2 +1 Felix Hernandez 3-1 0-1 -1 team range to get the Offense Jonathan Loaisiga 0-2 1-1 +2 3-3 0-3 +3 Rating, you may want to short- 3-2 1-2 +0 Mike Leake 3-2 1-2 +0 en the pitcher range, too. C. C. Sabathia 2-0 2-0 -3 Wade LeBlanc 2-1 0-2 +1 Masahiro Tanaka 2-3 2-0 -1 As a general guideline, most St. Louis TRGS U3-O5 Def of the time I stick with the five Oakland TRGS U3-O5 Def 3-2 1-1 -1 day range for teams. As shown Brett Anderson 3-2 2-1 -2 Dakota Hudson 2-2 1-1 +0 pitching data is season to date Chris Bassitt 1-0 1-0 -1 Mike Mikolas 4-1 1-0 -4 as of April 23, generally a re- Aaron Brooks 2-2 1-1 +0 Daniel Ponce DeLeone 1-0 0-0 -1 duction to the last 20-days is Marco Estrada 0-5 0-4 +5 Michael Wacha 2-2 0-2 +2 recommended. Mike Fiers 3-3 2-4 +2 Adam Wainwrigt 2-2 1-0 -1 With a five hurler rotation Frankie Montas 4-1 2-0 -4 that provides each starter with Tampa Bay TRGS U3-O5 Def Philadelphia TRGS U3-O5 Def Yonny Chirinos 3-0 2-0 -4 four assignments. Jake Arrienta 3-2 3-1 -3 Tyler Glasnow 4-1 3-0 -5 If you are going to do this Zach Eflin 2-3 2-3 +2 3-2 2-1 -2 the ratings range from best to Jerad Eickhoff 0-1 0-0 +1 Blake Snell 2-2 2-0 -2 worst should be no greater than 2-3 0-3 +4 Ryne Stanek 4-2 3-3 -2 +4 and –4. Nick Pivetta 3-1 0-2 +0 Hunter Wood 0-1 0-1 +2 The reason why I never start Vince Velasquez 2-1 1-0 -2 getting serious about baseball Texas TRGS U3-O5 Def before May 1 is the only data Pittsburgh TRGS U3-O5 Def Lance Lynn 3-2 1-2 +0 available is the almost worth- Chris Archer 1-3 0-1 3 Shelby Miller 4-1 0-4 +1 3-0 3-0 -4 Mike Minor 2-3 2-2 +1 less ERA. Joe Musgrove 2-2 2-1 -1 Adrian Sampson 1-0 0-0 -1 This is what I employed this Jameson Taillon 2-3 1-1 +1 0-4 1-2 +4 spring, subtracting the current Trevor Williams 4-1 3-0 -4 Edinson Volquez 2-0 0-1 -1 ERA from a standard of five. The problem is - when a San Diego TRGS U3-O5 Def Toronto TRGS U3-O5 Def pitcher has a fabulous start and Pedro Avila 1-0 0-1 +0 Clay Buchholz 2-0 1-1 -1 allows no runs in six Eric Lauer 2-3 1-2 +2 Thomas Pannone 0-1 0-1 +2 his ERA is 0.00 or –5. Joey Lucchesi 3-2 2-1 -2 Sean Reid-Foley 0-1 0-1 +2 In his next outing he goes 3-2 1-1 -1 Aaron Sanchez 3-2 1-1 -1 Chris Paddack 3-1 2-0 -4 Matt Shoemaker 5-0 2-0 -4 just four innings and permits Matt Strahm 1-3 0-1 +3 Marcus Stroman 1-4 3-1 +1 two runs. Trent Thornton 0-5 0-2 +4 After just two games he has San Francisco TRGS U3-O5 Def 10 innings pitched and two runs Madison Bumgarner 1-4 2-2 +3 Washington TRGS U3-O5 Def or an TRA (Total runs against) Derek Holland 1-4 1-0 +2 Patrick Corbin 3-2 1-2 +0 of 1.80 or –3. Drew Pomeranz 2-2 2-0 -2 Jeremy Hellickson 2-1 1-2 +0 If the final score in the first Dereck Rodriguez 3-2 2-0 -3 Anibal Sanchez 1-3 0-1 +3 game was 5-3, and the next was Jeff Samardzija 3-2 1-2 +0 Max Scherzer 2-3 2-3 +2 Stephen Strasburg 3-2 2-3 +0 6-4, the starter would be 2-0 in games started and 0-0 in Over-5 and Under-3. His rating, under seven days, would be –2 and not –3 or better.

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