Jim Barnes Journal The Theories of an 11-year Stardust Consultant AprilApril 16, 25, 2019 2019 these events, and don’t shy away Baseball Analysis with the from challenging an ace when his team is not hitting and scor- ing. ODI Forecasting Method ERAs should never be a bet There is a particularly sensi- fense-Defense Index system in -tor’s reliance factor, pitching is ble reason why I don’t get ex- all sports. (The format may not 80% of baseball. If I were to tremely engaged in baseball be- change from sport to sport.) use runs against, it would be fore the demise of April. Baseball is the only sport “total” and not just “earned.” I rely on both team and where 45% winners can gener- Teams, in my opinion, deter pitcher databases, extracting ate a good income. -mine winners and losers in con- needed information from each to When handicapping base- tests; pitchers determine if it is use the ODI to speculate final ball, my recommendation is to going to be a high or low scor- scores. always play road teams, watch ing contest. Team databases can be used streaks and team history with There are less than a dozen as rapidly as five games into the starters in baseball that are dan- season, but it requires four or gerous to go against, each can five starts before pitching statis- win without much offensive tics are established. backing. This should indicate the re- More than 90% of pitcher quired number of starts will take “W-L records are related to of- until the end of April to become fensive production. important. For the majority of starters, In previous years, I was allowing three or less is a win wise enough to stick with this and giving up five or more is a guideline. In a hurry to let peo- possible setback. ple know that I was going back online, I began to use ERAs as Scoring and streaks is really promptly as established instead what major league baseball is of waiting for the correct TRGS about. The ODI, as other articles and Over-5 and Un-der-3 statis- in the Journal, are intended to tics. get you thinking in a new direc- This is the meat of the Of- tion - “outside the box.” Visit Our Website - jimbarnes.com or jim- Issue Number: Copyright Barnes 2019 Jim Barnes Journal 2019 Major League Team ODI LAST SEVEN DAYS LAST FIVE DAYS LAST THREE DAYS Team W-L Ov5-Un3 OFF Team W-L Ov5-Un3 OFF Team W-L Ov5-Un3 OFF Arizona 5-2 2-3 3 Arizona 3-2 3-2 3 Arizona 2-1 1-1 3 Atlanta 2-4 3-2 5 Atlanta 2-2 3-0 3 Atlanta 1-1 2-0 6 Baltimore 2-5 2-2 4 Baltimore 1-4 1-1 4 Baltimore 1-2 1-1 4 Boston 3-3 2-1 5 Boston 3-2 2-1 5 Boston `-1 0-1 3 Chicago Cubs 4-1 2-2 4 Chicago Cubs 3-1 1-2 3 Chicago Cubs 2-0 1-1 4 Chicago Sox 2-4 3-1 5 Chicago Sox 2-2 2-1 5 Chicago Sox 1-2 1-1 4 Cincinnati 4-2 1-1 4 Cincinnati 3-1 1-0 5 Cincinnati 1-1 1-0 5 Cleveland 2-3 2-2 4 Cleveland 1-3 2-1 5 Cleveland 0-2 0-1 3 Colorado 4-2 2-0 6 Colorado 3-2 1-0 5 Colorado 2-1 1-0 5 Detroit 4-2 2-1 5 Detroit 3-1 1-0 5 Detroit 3-0 1-0 5 Houston 2-4 3-1 6 Houston 2-3 3-0 7 Houston 1-1 2-0 6 Kansas City 2-5 2-3 3 Kansas City 0-5 1-3 2 Kansas City 0-3 1-1 4 LA Angels 1-6 2-0 6 LA Angels 1-4 1-0 5 LA Angels 1-2 1-0 5 LA Dodgers 4-2 1-2 3 LA Dodgers 2-2 1-2 3 LA Dodgers 1-1 1-1 4 Miami 3-2 1-2 3 Miami 3-1 1-1 4 Miami 1-1 0-1 3 Milwaukee 1-6 0-1 3 Milwaukee 1-4 0-0 4 Milwaukee 0-3 0-0 4 Minnesota 5-2 4-0 8 Minnesota 4-1 3-0 7 Minnesota 2-1 1-0 5 NY Mets 3-3 1-2 3 NY Mets 3-2 1-1 4 NY Mets 2-1 1-0 5 NY Yankees 6-1 4-1 7 NY Yankees 5-0 4-0 8 NY Yankees 3-0 2-0 6 Oakland 3-3 2-3 3 Oakland 2-3 2-2 4 Oakland 2-1 2-0 6 Philadelphia 2-5 1-4 1 Philadelphia 1-4 1-3 2 Philadelphia 0-3 0-3 1 Pittsburgh 3-3 1-2 3 Pittsburgh 2-3 1-2 3 Pittsburgh 0-3 1-2 3 San Diego 2-3 1-3 2 San Diego 2-2 1-2 3 San Diego 2-0 1-0 5 San Francisco 2-4 2-3 3 San Francisco 2-2 1-2 3 San Francisco 2-0 1-0 5 Seattle 3-3 3-1 6 Seattle 2-2 2-0 6 Seattle 0-2 1-0 5 St. Louis 5-1 4-0 8 St. Louis 4-1 3-0 7 St. Louis 3-0 2-0 5 Tampa Bay 3-4 2-0 6 Tampa Bay 2-3 1-0 5 Tampa Bay 2-1 1-0 5 Texas 3-3 2-2 4 Texas 2-3 2-3 4 Texas 1-2 1-1 4 Toronto 4-2 3-1 6 Toronto 3-1 2-0 6 Toronto 1-1 1-0 5 Washington 4-3 2-1 5 Washington 2-3 1-1 4 Washington 2-1 1-0 5 After more than 20-games is the basic runs that a team was (1) use three games and (2) have been played by major should score and unadjusted for ignore home and away. The soft- league teams, season to date sta- any streaks and rating of the ware was created for primary use tistics are about as valuable as opposing starting pitcher (DEF). in hockey and soccer, some pro- “Toys R Us” stock. Almost eve- Many years ago, as previ- visions were built in for Ameri- ry team will average 5-4 or 4-5 ously mentioned, a German- can sports. runs per game. produced forecast program Unfortunately, the software This is the point where the (Betting Genuis) produced designer input a date after which database length must be reduced. scores under various conditions. it would no longer work. The above table shows team sta- One could choose road, home or tistics for the period of April 17 overall and the number of games The software could be set to 23 and breaks this into three (three, five, ten, etc.) up to reflect past history in any brackets; games played in the sport and project future scores. The program used chess past seven, five and three days. From experience I recall the evaluation formulas to deter- 1990s program was powerful in The most important statistic mine the forecasts, and in re- both soccer and hockey; just as it is the Offense (OFF) index – this view, the strongest combination was intended. Page 2 Jim Barnes Journal The second most important after the six game victorious Royals have won five, lost six ingredient in my opinion is how run. and all the decisions came in each team is playing at present. When looking at a team that mini-streaks. Streaks reveal this infor- is currently on either a winning Old-timers retiring to some mation with just a single glance. or losing streak, try to specu- rest home in outer space im- As an example, Milwaukee has late how long either might last. pressed on me that “only an idi- one major streak—six consecu- Past history from this season ot would go against a streak.” tive victories in late March. might supply the answer. The Try not to break that rule - it Mariners opened with three majority of streaks last two or has little benefit. I can testify wins, lost one and won four three games. to that as there have been a more. Sixteen of their victories Any run of four or more is number of times when I felt the have occurred in streaks of rare, making Kansas City’s forecast was missing something. three, four and six. The solo string of ten straight losses a Perhaps, I am remembering losing skid came immediately rarity. Since that low point the the prior season too well. Streaks Arizona L1 W1 L2 W2 L1 W2 L1 W1 L4 W4 L1 W1 L1 W1 Atlanta L3 W4 L1 W3 L2 W2 L4 W2 Baltimore L1 W4 L4 W1 L4 W1 L1 W1 L2 W1 L4 Boston L1 W1 L4 W1 L3 W1 L1 W2 L1 W1 L3 W3 Cincinnati W1 L8 W4 L4 W3 L1 Chicago Cubs W1 L6 W1 L1 W1 L1 W2 L1 W4 L1 W1 Chicago Sox L2 W1 L1 W2 L5 W1 L1 W3 L2 W1 L1 W1 Cleveland L1 W1 L1 W1 L1 W5 L1 W1 L3 W4 L2 Colorado W2 L4 W1 L8 W5 L1 W2 Detroit W1 L2 W1 L1 W5 L1 W1 L5 W1 L1 W1 Houston W1 L3 W1 L2 W10 L1 W1 L3 Kansas City W2 L10 W3 L2 W2 L4 LA Angels L1 W1 L5 W6 L1 W1 L6 W1 L1 LA Dodgers W1 L1 W2 L1 W5 L6 W6 L1 W1 Miami L2 W2 L4 W1 L5 W1 L4 W2 L1 Milwaukee W1 L1 W6 L1 W1 L3 W2 L1 W2 L3 W1 L2 Minnesota W1 L1 W3 L1 W1 L1 W1 L1 W2 L2 W1 L1 W4 NY Mets W2 L1 W3 L1 W1 L2 W3 L2 W1 L2 W1 L2 W1 NY Yankees W1 L2 W1 L2 W3 L4 W1 L1 W2 L1 W4 Oakland L2 W1 L1 W4 L1 W1 L4 W4 L2 W1 L3 W1 Philadelphia W4 L1 W1 L1 W2 L2 W1 L1 W1 L1 W2 L2 W1 L1 Pittsburgh L1 W1 L2 W4 L1 W1 L1 W1 L1 W5 L2 San Diego W2 L1 W1 L2 W3 L1 W1 L1 W4 L6 W1 San Francisco L2 W1 L1 W1 L3 W1 L2 W1 L1 W3 L1 W1 L4 W1 Seattle W3 L1 W4 L1 W6 L6 W3 L1 St.