Stage 2 Report Appendix 2 Evidence Review of East Lindsey Local Plan Evidence Base
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Skegness Neighbourhood Development Plan – Stage 2 Report Appendix 2 Evidence Review of East Lindsey Local Plan Evidence Base Evidence Author Date published Summary of Findings East Lindsey District NLP March 2014 With regard to the national hierarchy/shopping index, Council Retail and Javelin’s Venuescore ranks the top 3500+ retail centres. Economic Assessment Venuescore measures the presence of multi-national retailers in a centre. It doesn’t consider independent retailers or the quality of the retail offer. In 2013/14 Javelin’s Venuescore ranked Skegness at 320. This compares with Louth at 450. Both Skegness and Louth rank much lower than Lincoln and Grimsby at 77 and 143 respectively. The NLP report only considers the potential for new convenience floorspace in Louth, Horncastle and Alford and the need for new retail development in the three towns up to 2018, 2023 and 2028. It does not include Skegness. East Lindsey District Chase and Partners January 2008 The Study looked at 8 postcode areas (zones 1 to 8): Council Retail and Zone 1 - PE25 (Skegness); Zone 2 - PE24 (Skegness Leisure Study and rural area); Zone 3 - PE22 (Rural area north of Boston); Zone 4 – PE23 (Spilsby and surrounding area); Zone 5 – LN9 (Horncastle and surrounding area); Zone 6 - LN8 (Alford and surrounding area); Zone 7- LN11 (Louth and surrounding area); Zone 8 – LN12 (Mablethorpe). Skegness and Mablethorpe experienced over 1 million domestic tourism visits in 2003 (Lincolnshire Tourism Model, Geoff Broom Associates (Appendix A). Household Survey (1,000 households) indicates: i. Skegness does not provide an extensive comparison goods (retail) offer; ii. Limited bulky goods offer which draws people to other areas, Grimsby and Lincoln in particular. iii. Skegness has a range of town centre uses and is first and foremost a leisure and tourism destination. iv. Traffic congestion was considered to be an important issue facing Skegness (cited by 19% of households). v. Increasing the provision of car parking was also considered a priority (cited by 15% of households). vi. For convenience goods, the Household survey indicated that Morrisons and Tesco stores were dominant in 2007 accounting for 86% of convenience trade in zone 1 of the study and 78% of trade in zone 2. vii. Skegness is the dominant shopping destination for comparison goods attracting trips from zones 1 and 2, and a significant number from zones 4, 6 and 8. Skegness attracts fewer trips from areas with larger centres such as Boston. Results indicate that Households from Mablethorpe are more inclined to shop in Grimsby than Skegness. Significant edge of centre convenience retailing. One out-of-centre retail park. Skegness has considerable potential for growth with relatively few physical constraints on the town centre. 63 multiple national retailers (35% of units). Significant number of long standing independent retailers. Town Focus database (UK retail hierarchy) ranked Skegness at 346 out of 1,500 shopping centres. Demand for retail floorspace from 26 multi-national retailers in October 2007. Emphasis on value end of the retail market, examples given are Aldi, Farmfoods, British Heart Foundation, Netto, Poundland and Peacocks. Shopping rents were circa £60 per square foot in zone A. This compares with Boston at £85, Grimsby at £135 and Lincoln at £140. Shopping rents continued to rise in the 5 years prior to the study. Very low levels of vacant units in the town centre recorded. Skegness’ shopping centre yield fell from 7.5 in 2001 to 6.5 in July 2007. Indicating a general improvement in the area. A higher yield is an indication of concern by investors that rental income might grow less rapidly. In comparison, Lincoln’s shopping yield increased slightly over the same period from 5 in 2001 to 5.25 in 2007. Boston and Grimsby’s shopping centre yields also reduced in line with Skegness. In Boston from 7 to 6.5 and in Grimsby from 6.5 to 6.25. Skegness is remote from other towns and cities but has good rail links, with the railway station close to the town centre. However, links from the railway station to the town centre are poor. Crime was cited as the fifth most important issue by households in Skegness, suggesting there is no negative perception of crime in the town. The importance of Skegness as a tourist destination was also cited by households. The study reviewed zone A rents, shopping centre yields, and retailer demand of 12 other coastal resorts (Bangor, Blackpool, Bognor Regis, Eastbourne, Great Yarmouth, Llandudno, Lowestoft, Margate, Newquay, Rhyl, Weston Super Mare and Weymouth). An analysis of Skegness in comparison with the other coastal resorts indicates that zone A rents are quite low at £60 per square foot (psf). In 2007, the lowest was Margate at £45 psf and the highest was Blackpool at £125 psf. Over the period 2001 to 2007 yields improved in 9 of the coastal resorts (including Skegness). Yields remained unchanged in 2 coastal resorts (Bognor Regis and Eastbourne) and worsened in 2 coastal resorts (Great Yarmouth and Weston-Super-Mare). The study indicates that, at that time, Skegness was viewed by investors as less of a risk. Retail health is difficult to analyse in Skegness due to seasonal variations. The study concludes that, judging by analysis at peak season and low season, Skegness was considered to be a healthy, viable town centre in 2007. Quantitative Assessment: Convenience Goods Expenditure For convenience shopping, Skegness is largely self- contained attracting few visits from surrounding towns. Convenience goods expenditure per capita is expected to increase to £1,678.75 by 2022 and by £1,760.80 by 2026 according to the results of the study (Source: Mapinfo utilising TargetPro report data). Convenience goods total expenditure is forecast to increase from £38.59 million to £43.13 million by 2022 and £47.06 million by 2026 (Growth in expenditure from 2007 to 2022: £12.51m and for 2007 to 2026: £16.44m). Very little of the expenditure on convenience goods is expected to be spent in the town centre due to the draw of stores on the edge of the centre. However, this expenditure relies entirely on household expenditure and does not account for tourism expenditure. As previously mentioned, there were over 1.4 million tourism trips to the coastal areas in 2003. The Lincolnshire Tourism Model (Geoff Broom Associates) estimated that total visitor spend in coastal areas of East Lindsey was over £301m, with retail attracting £68.3m. It is assumed that 50% of this is spent in Skegness given the offer available elsewhere in the coastal area. Growth in tourist spending on convenience goods is forecast to be as follows: 2007 to 2022 £2.6m; 2007 to 2026 £3.38m Comparison Goods Expenditure Expenditure per capita is forecast to increase as follows: by 2022 Zone 1 £5,094.83; Zone 2 £4,993.05; Zones 4, 6 & 8 £5,220.40; and by 2026 as follows: Zone 1 £6,169.24, Zone 2 £6,045.99, Zones 4, 6 & 8 £6,321.29. Comparison goods total expenditure is forecast to increase to £392.74m by 2022, and to £495.84m by 2026. In 2007, the town centre’s market share was 33% of comparison expenditure. However, this expenditure relies entirely on household expenditure and does not account for tourism expenditure. As previously mentioned, there were over 1.4 million tourism trips to the coastal areas in 2003. The Lincolnshire Tourism Model (Geoff Broom Associates) estimated that total visitor spend in coastal areas of East Lindsey was over £301m, with retail attracting £68.3m. It is assumed that 50% of this is spent in Skegness given the offer available elsewhere in the coastal area. Growth in tourist spending on comparison goods is forecast to be as follows: 2007 to 2022 - £26.85m; 2007 to 2026 - £38.07m. Tourism accounts for a considerable level of expenditure and should be taken into consideration in policy making. However, tourists are unlikely to buy larger, bulky goods such as furniture and electrical appliances. Tourist shopping patterns are expected to relate to recreational goods, clothing and footwear. Requirement for Retail Floorspace The 2008 study concludes that there is considerable scope for further comparison goods floorspace in Skegness, particularly in clothing and recreational goods. With regard to convenience goods floorspace, the study suggests there is no scope for new food stores but there may be some scope for extensions to existing stores. Requirement for Leisure Floorspace Assessing need for leisure is more subjective than for retail. Leisure includes a wide range of uses including pubs, cinemas and golf courses. The study focusses on commercial leisure. The study is qualitative rather than quantitative, it doesn’t seek to identify the area of floorspace required. The study finds there is a lack of a single commercial leisure destination, such as a multiplex cinema with bars and restaurants on site. Most of the leisure provision is fragmented along Grand Parade, South Parade and the eastern end of Lumley Road. The study indicates this the lack of a cohesive leisure destination is likely to be the reason why quality multiple operators don’t want to locate in Skegness. Suggestion that the presence of low quality leisure uses harms the profile of Skegness. The study finds that there is a qualitative need for further leisure uses within Skegness. This can only be achieved by delivering a critical mass of development. Several major cinema operators were canvassed about locating in Skegness. It was confirmed that they were not looking to locate in Skegness due to its size, potential catchment and current perception of the town. Competition from Grimsby and Lincoln reduces Skegness’ catchment population to a level too low to support such an operation at a viable level.