Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, October 10

Headlines:

• Turkey Launches Offensive Against U.S.-Backed Syrian Militia • Trump: U.S. Should Never Have Been Involved in Mideast Wars • Two Killed in Shooting Near Synagogue in Germany • PM: German Attack is Expression of Rising Anti-Semitism in Europe • Amid Deadlock, Liberman Presents 4-point Plan for Unity Govt’ • Blue & White: Liberman’s Outline is a Wake-Up Call for the • Lieberman Implies Netanyahu Sent Investigators to Spy on Him • Two Children Killed in Yom Kippur Road Accidents

Commentary:

• Foreign Affairs: “Turkey’s Endgame in Syria” - By Gonul Tol, Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute • Al Monitor: “Netanyahu’s Day of Atonement” - By Ben Caspit, commentator at Al Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor

News Excerpts October 7, 2019 New York Times Turkey Launches Offensive Against U.S.-Backed Syrian Militia Turkey launched a ground and air assault on Wednesday against a Syrian militia that has been a crucial American ally in the fight against ISIS, days after President Trump agreed to let the operation proceed. As Turkish warplanes bombed Syrian towns and troops crossed the border, the chaos in Washington continued, with President Trump issuing seemingly contradictory policy statements in the face of strident opposition from his Republican allies in Congress. Mr. Trump acquiesced to the Turkish operation in a call with Turkey’s president on Sunday, agreeing to move American troops out of Turkey’s way despite opposition from his own State Department and military. On Wednesday, hours after the operation began, he condemned it, calling it “a bad idea.” See also, “Republican anger grows as Trump disavows Kurds by saying they didn't help during WWII” (CNN)

Ha’aretz Trump: U.S. Should Never Have Been Involved in Mideast Wars President Trump lashed out Wednesday over sharp criticism of his decision to pull back U.S. troops from northeastern Syria, insisting he is focused on the “BIG PICTURE” that doesn’t include American involvement in “stupid endless wars” in the Middle East. “Fighting between various groups that has been going on for hundreds of years. USA should never have been in Middle East,” Trump said in a series of morning tweets. “The stupid endless wars, for us, are ending!” Turkey launched its offensive Wednesday against Kurdish fighters in Syria, who have helped the U.S. against the Islamic State. Turkey views the Syrian Kurdish fighters as terrorists, and Trump’s decision to pull back U.S. troops leaves them vulnerable to the military onslaught. See also, “In Angry Tweets, Trump Defends Pulling U.S. Troops From Syria” (TIME)

Ynet News Two Killed in Shooting Near Synagogue in Germany Two people were killed in shooting attacks on a synagogue and a kebab bistro in the eastern German city of Halle on Wednesday and one suspect was arrested, but two others fled in a hijacked a car, officials said. The violence occurred on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the calendar in Judaism when Jews fast, seeking atonement. The two suspects on the loose headed out on a motorway that leads to Munich in the country's south, according to the mayor of the town of Landsberg, adjacent to Halle. Gunfire was also heard in Landsberg, Focus Online reported. See also, “Two people killed in synagogue shooting in Halle in eastern Germany” (ABC)

Times of PM: German Attack is Expression of Rising Anti-Semitism in Europe Moments after the end of Yom Kippur, Israeli leaders expressed shock and outrage over the deadly attack Wednesday targeting a synagogue in the German city of Halle. “The terror attack against the community in Halle, Germany, on Yom Kippur, the holiest day for our people, is another expression of the rising anti-Semitism in Europe,” Netanyahu said in a statement, moments after the holy day ended in Israel (while it was still ongoing in Germany). “In the name of the Israeli people I send condolences to the families of the victims and wishes for a speedy recovery to the injured,” he went on. 2

Times of Israel Amid Deadlock, Liberman Presents 4-point Plan for Unity Govt’ Avigdor Liberman late Wednesday presented his blueprint for a unity government together with Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’s Blue and White amid an ongoing deadlock in talks. In a post on Facebook, Liberman suggested that as a first step representatives of the three parties get together to hash out the guiding principles of a future unity government. Liberman said that should such an agreement be reached they should then adopt President Reuven Rivlin’s proposal for a power sharing compromise. A third stage proposed by Liberman would see the new government pass the budget and a multi-year defense plan. They would then, in the fourth stage, allow other parties to join the coalition if they agreed to the governments guiding principles, Liberman said. See also, “LIBERMAN PLAN: NETANYAHU FIRST, BUT WITHOUT BLOC” (JPost)

Ynet News Blue & White: Liberman’s Outline is a Wake-Up Call for the Likud Blue and White officials welcomed overnight Thursday to Yisrael Beytenu's new outline for a unity government, calling Liberman's party 'natural partners'. "We welcome this outline and see Avigdor Liberman and his party as natural partners for a coalition which we hope will soon come," said the officials. "We hope that this outline will be a wake-up call for the Likud party and bring it to the negotiation table". See also, “ 'Only Likud, Blue and White, and Yisrael Beyteinu in government” (Arutz 7)

Ha’aretz Lieberman Implies Netanyahu Sent Investigators to Spy on Him Chairman slammed Prime Minister and other members of his Likud Party on Monday, saying the premier “isn’t capable of understanding concepts like friendship or loyalty." In an interview with the Israeli Maariv daily, Lieberman said that he wouldn’t be surprised if Netanyahu and his associates had hired private investigators to stalk him and his family. “The problem with Bibi is once you have a different approach or perception than his, and it goes against his interests, you immediately become a personal enemy. You are immediately accused of hating the prime minister, that you’re a leftist and that you’re trying to overthrow him, while ignoring the facts,” Lieberman said.

Jerusalem Post Two Children Killed in Yom Kippur Road Accidents Two children were killed in central Israel on Wednesday during Yom Kippur when they were hit by a car and motorcycle while riding bicycles, Channel 12 reported. The 10-year-old boy was riding on Route 443, just outside of the Ben-Shemen Youth Village in central Israel, according to Channel 12. “On the highway, the boy lay unconscious, without a pulse and out of breath when suffering from a severe head injury,” a Magen David Adom (MDA) paramedic said. “Citizens who were on-site provided him with medical treatment and performed basic CPR training under the guidance of the MDA hotline. We continued medical care and performed advanced CPR operations. We evacuated him in critical condition to the hospital, where they determined he was deceased.” An 8-year-old boy was also hit on Namir Road in Tel Aviv. He was pronounced dead at Ichilov Hospital. In Israel, the roads are often empty during Yom Kippur, when Jews traditionally fast and pray to atone for their sins. While it is not illegal to drive on Yom Kippur, most Jewish-Israelis avoid doing so as part of this tradition. As a result, people often ride bikes or walk on streets and highways that are filled with vehicles on normal days. 3

Foreign Affairs – October 9, 2019 Turkey’s Endgame in Syria

By Gonul Tol, Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute

• In a stunning announcement on Sunday, the Trump administration gave the nod to a Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria, an operation that would entail clashes with Washington’s Kurdish allies in the area. The U.S. military, which has around 1,000 troops in Syria, would not “support or be involved in the operation.” But the White House said it would pull back U.S. forces stationed near the Syrian-Turkish border to clear the way for Ankara’s troops. • Facing an intense backlash even among Republicans, Trump seemed to backpedal on Monday. But Turkish army units stand ready at the Syrian border, and Washington’s exhortations are unlikely to keep Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from giving them the green light. This is because Turkey’s strategy is more than an exercise in geopolitics—for Erdogan, the war touches on his very political survival. • In fact, Turkey’s Syria policy has for years turned on Erdogan’s ambition to consolidate his one- man rule at home. Turkey supported Islamist insurgents against Damascus when doing so strengthened Erdogan’s religious credentials at home. After flagging electoral support forced Erdogan to partner with an anti-Kurdish opposition party, his attention shifted to fighting the Kurdish forces operating in Syria. That goal remains today, but it is slowly being overshadowed by an even more pressing concern: getting rid of the millions of Syrian refugees who have made their way to Turkey over the years, where they have now become a burden on Erdogan. That a major military incursion will solve these problems is far from guaranteed. But Erdogan is determined to try. • Turkey’s playbook in Syria has changed dramatically since civil war broke out in 2011. Erdogan was flying high at home that spring, when people first took to the streets of Damascus to protest the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The secularist opposition was in a slump, and Erdogan was set to embark on a program to Islamize the country’s education system. The conflict across the border in Syria offered Erdogan an opportunity to extend his agenda outward. Within months, the Turkish government abandoned Assad, formerly a close partner, and began to arm the Islamist insurgents doing battle against Damascus. Turkey soon became a hub for Syria’s exiled opposition and a conduit for the steady stream of foreign jihadi fighters making their way into Syria. Eventually, Ankara turned a blind eye even to members of the Islamic State (or ISIS), who slipped in and out of the country and sometimes sought medical treatment there. All the while, Turkey opened its borders to millions of refugees fleeing the fighting and built vast camps to hold the new arrivals. The gesture was expensive but morally just, Erdogan argued— an act of Sunni compassion and solidarity in the face of the Assad regime’s atrocities. That narrative struck a chord with the public, and opposition to the refugee influx remained relatively muted. All told, Turkey hosted 3.6 million Syrian refugees. • Fighting in Syria, however, were not just Islamist insurgents but several Kurdish militias. For Erdogan, this was bad news. In 2015, his Justice and Development Party had lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in over a decade, owing in part to the unexpected success of a party representing Turkey’s Kurdish minority, parts of which had for decades 4

fought their own low-level insurgency in the country’s southeast. To hold on to power, Erdogan struck an alliance with a far-right opposition party known for its strong opposition to Kurdish nationalism. The government’s years-long peace process with Kurdish militants in the southeast came to an abrupt end. • Erdogan’s priorities in Syria shifted accordingly. Ankara was now determined to discourage Kurdish efforts to establish autonomy in the region spanning southeast Turkey and northern Syria. Attempts to unseat Assad through Islamist proxies took a back seat to the more pressing concern of denying the Syrian Kurds a contiguous autonomous region along the border with Turkey. In Aleppo, the Syrian rebels’ last stronghold, Turkey now enlisted insurgents who had been fighting Assad to attack Kurdish forces instead, sapping the rebellion of its manpower and facilitating the advance of the Syrian army, which retook the city in 2016. That year, Turkey sent its own military into northern Syria in an effort to contain the Kurdish militias operating there. • By 2017, Erdogan’s about-face was complete, and Ankara was working with the Assad regime and its allies. To the dismay of the Syrian opposition, Turkey, Russia, and Iran agreed to create several so-called de-escalation zones. In theory, regime and opposition in these areas would have to honor limited cease-fires, but in practice, the regime made military gains by frequently violating the truces, often with Russian support. In return, Damascus and its allies looked the other way when Turkey launched a second military intervention into the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in January 2018. • Just as Erdogan’s domestic concerns about Kurds occasioned a shift in his objectives in Syria, so too have domestic concerns about refugees. The Turkish president senses that his open- door policy has become a domestic liability. His party lost control of almost all major cities in the 2019 municipal elections—an immense blow to the city-level patronage system upon which Erdogan built his power over the last 25 years. The rout owed something to the deepening economic crisis, but it also reflected growing public discontent with the 3.6 million Syrian refugees still in the country. • Once the self-proclaimed magnanimous patron of all Sunnis, Erdogan now wants the refugees to go home. Turkish authorities have stepped up house searches and arrests of Syrian refugees. The state has tried to move refugees out of the major cities, and the police have set up a hotline to collect information on those who enter the country illegally. Some have reportedly been deported to the Syrian city of Idlib, even as the fighting there intensifies. • Forcing hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions, of Syrian refugees out of the country and back into a war zone is nearly impossible, but Erdogan thinks otherwise. His solution, recently laid out in a speech at the UN General Assembly, is to carve out a large buffer zone along Syria’s border with Turkey. The area would be 300 miles long and 20 miles deep, under Turkish control, and off-limits to Kurdish forces. According to Erdogan, this “safe zone” would host two million to three million refugees, thus ridding Ankara of a major domestic headache. It would boast 200,000 homes, along with hospitals, football pitches, mosques, and schools, Turkish-built but financed internationally—a setup that would provide much-needed revenue for Turkey’s struggling construction sector at a time of economic downturn. Securing funding for this idea is a tall order, but Erdogan is willing to push the envelope. In September, he threatened that he would “open the gates” and set off another European refugee crisis if he did not get his way.

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• Erdogan’s proposal might be the perfect solution for his domestic woes, but it is sure to create a host of new problems for everyone else. His plan would send millions of Arab Syrian refugees into Kurdish-majority areas inside Syria—not incidentally, from Erdogan’s point of view, as changing the ethnic makeup of the region would further undermine the Kurds. But doing so would increase Arab-Kurdish tensions, fuel conflict in a region that has been relatively stable, and cause mass displacement in those areas. Under international law, Erdogan cannot force the Syrian refugees to move back, and most would almost certainly not move voluntarily, even into a purported safe zone. U.S. strategy in Syria, which has relied heavily on the Kurds to prevent ISIS from making a comeback, would take a massive hit. And the plan is a godsend to the United States’ adversaries in Syria—Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime—who believe they can stand by while the Turkish incursion prompts a complete U.S. withdrawal, only to recapture the area and kick out Turkey later on. • Many U.S. lawmakers are aware of this, and Trump has rightly come under fire from Democrats and Republicans alike for his seeming acquiescence of the Turkish operation—an operation that the United States should be working hard to prevent. Even Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, usually one of Trump’s staunchest defenders, has threatened to sanction the Turkish government if it sets foot in Syria. Erdogan, however, is likely prepared to take that risk. His rule is at stake, and that is all that matters to him—even if it means economic penalties for his country and yet more chaos and suffering for Syria.

SUMMARY: Once the self-proclaimed magnanimous patron of all Sunnis, Erdogan now wants the refugees to go home. Turkish authorities have stepped up house searches and arrests of Syrian refugees. The state has tried to move refugees out of the major cities, and the police have set up a hotline to collect information on those who enter the country illegally. Some have reportedly been deported to the Syrian city of Idlib, even as the fighting there intensifies. Forcing hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions, of Syrian refugees out of the country and back into a war zone is nearly impossible, but Erdogan thinks otherwise. His solution,

recently laid out in a speech at the UN General Assembly, is to carve out a large buffer zone along Syria’s border with Turkey. The area would be 300 miles long and 20 miles deep, under Turkish control, and off-limits to Kurdish forces. According to Erdogan, this “safe zone” would host two million to three million refugees, thus ridding Ankara of a major domestic headache. It would boast 200,000 homes, along with hospitals, football pitches, mosques, and schools, Turkish-built but financed internationally—a setup that would provide much-needed revenue for Turkey’s struggling construction sector at a time of economic downturn. Securing funding for this idea is a tall order, but Erdogan is willing to push the envelope. In September, he threatened that he would “open the gates” and set off another European refugee crisis if he did not get his way.

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Al Monitor, October 8, 2019 Netanyahu’s Day of Atonement

By Ben Caspit, commentator at Al Monitor

• According to Israeli Justice Ministry sources, the four-day hearing during which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s legal team sought to convince Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit to dismiss the pending indictments against him, or to at least to lessen the charges, had ended inconclusively. Right after Yom Kippur, which falls on Oct. 9, Mandelblit will embark on a marathon of consultations and summaries before reaching a conclusion about the allegations against Netanyahu by mid-December. Barring unexpected developments, Mandelblit’s decision is expected to make Israeli history, resulting in indictments on charges of corruption against an incumbent prime minister. Leaks from the discussions over the coming month will directly affect Netanyahu’s political future and his prospects for forming a new government. • Netanyahu himself is far from conceding defeat. He will fight to the last minute and the final bullet. Contrary to his original intention, he did not rush to return the mandate he received from President Reuven Rivlin after the Sept. 17 elections to form a government. On Oct. 10, the Likud Central Committee is scheduled to convene to decide whether Netanyahu, and he alone, will be the party’s candidate for prime minister. Netanyahu, chronically suspicious and especially now, asked for this strange, unnecessary vote, knowing that behind the smiles and staunch declarations of support by the Likud leadership, the knives are at the ready. Behind the scenes and under the radar, a vicious battle is already underway to succeed Netanyahu. The incumbent refuses to step aside, however, and the legacy he leaves his successor, if any, will be scorched earth. • Almost all those seeking to take Netanyahu’s crown are operating in the shadows while swearing allegiance to him three times a day. The only one already in line to replace Netanyahu is Gideon Saar, “the great Satan” as Netanyahu’s associates call him, a popular former Likud minister who has had no qualms about standing up to Netanyahu in recent years, usually winning. Saar, who took time out from politics a few years ago under pressure from Netanyahu, is perceived at the prime minister's official residence as a person who will do everything in his power, together with the other Satan, Rivlin, to bring Netanyahu down. Netanyahu dubbed their past alleged activity against him the “plot of the century,” a play on the “deal of the century,” as President Donald Trump's plan for Israeli-Palestinian peace is called. Now, the decisive moment is at hand, and other contenders are also waiting in the wings. • At least four senior Likud members have quietly set up campaign offices and are forging alliances, mobilizing support and planning what they will do once it is clear that the Netanyahu era is over, probably sometime next year. Among the wannabe candidates are former mayor and current Likud member Nir Barkat, Foreign Minister , Knesset Speaker , Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan and maybe a few surprise challengers. • The hardest question to answer is what happens a month from now assuming that Netanyahu’s chief rival, Blue and White leader , is also unable to form a government. By law, Rivlin is supposed to hand the mandate back to the Knesset, which then has 21 days to nominate another candidate from among elected lawmakers to form the next government and spare 7

Israelis a third election in the space of a year. Those 21 crucial days are meant to create the momentum to resolve Israel's unprecedented political crisis. One possible outcome is the formation of a unity government comprised of the Likud and Blue and White, with an agreed upon power-sharing rotation between Netanyahu and Gantz. The other is for the Likud to present an alternative to Netanyahu and set a precedent by deposing its incumbent leader. Prospects of such a scenario are low, but possible. They will increase if Mandelblit makes a final decision within the coming weeks to indict Netanyahu. • Saar enjoys a decisive advantage over the other claimants to the throne, largely because Netanyahu himself has marked him as the only one who has displayed leadership in challenging him. On Oct. 3, it was leaked from Netanyahu's circle that he intended to call “snap primaries” for the Likud. This was supposed to serve as a preemptive strike in which Netanyahu would be reelected party chair, blocking any option of replacing him until after the next Knesset elections. Netanyahu hoped to reenact previous party primaries in which he was the sole candidate and the outcome a foregone conclusion. By doing so, Netanyahu would have dragged his party into primaries within two weeks, bolstering his position. An unexpected tweet threw a wrench into his plan. • Seconds after Netanyahu himself mentioned the possibility of snap primaries, Saar announced, “I’m ready.” Saar's laconic response set off a storm the likes of which the Likud has not experienced in ages. Everything was now out in the open: Someone was publicly vying for the party’s top job against Netanyahu, and the dictatorship imposed by Netanyahu on the party in the guise of the exercise of democracy was over. It took Netanyahu less than 24 hours to announce that he was scrapping the whole idea. There would be no primaries. Instead, he demanded that the Likud Central Committee convene to declare that he and he alone would be the party's candidate to form the next government. • Once again, Saar was quick to respond, tweeting, “There is no need to convene the Likud Central Committee. No one is denying the role of the Prime Minister as the Likud chairman. When there is a primary for the leadership of the party — as the prime minister himself put forward a few days ago — I will run as a candidate.” Netanyahu’s associates then declared that an internal putsch had been avoided. It seems, however, that even they don't believe this themselves. A man realizes that his time is limited when he views it as a putsch if anyone dares to run against him in a democratic process. • Saar’s main Likud rival for the succession is Minister Israel Katz, who has adopted a strategy opposite to Saar's. Katz began his career as an aide to the late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. These days, he is operating as he did in 1998-99 when Netanyahu was about to lose the premiership to Ehud Barak. Katz had grown close to Netanyahu, displaying complete loyalty and making himself indispensable to the sinking leader. The plan had been (and remains) to stand as close as possible to the throne so he can be the first to pick up the scepter once it falls from Netanyahu’s hand. Katz is counting on the fact that Likud members do not like subversives plotting against the party leader and will handsomely reward those who remain loyal to the final moment. • Also warming up on the bench is the man who has described himself as the “great white hope,” Nir Barkat, also a former Jerusalem mayor and dot.com billionaire. Knesset Speaker Edelstein also enjoys popularity among the Likud rank and file and believes he could luck out given that he is not perceived as a threat to the leadership and can position himself as a compromise 8

candidate acceptable to all. Gilad Erdan, who in August declined Netanyahu’s offer to appoint him Israel’s next ambassador to the United Nations, realizes these are critical days and will probably take part in the battle for succession. • All that remains is to convince Netanyahu to write a political will and exit the scene. That, much to his challengers’ chagrin, will not happen. To get the crown, they will have to fight for it.

SUMMARY: Saar’s main Likud rival for the succession is Minister Israel Katz, who has adopted a strategy opposite to Saar's. Katz began his career as an aide to the late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. These days, he is operating as he did in 1998-99 when Netanyahu was about to lose the premiership to Ehud Barak. Katz had grown close to Netanyahu, displaying complete loyalty and making himself indispensable to the sinking leader. The plan had been (and remains) to stand as close as possible to the throne so he can be the first to pick up the scepter once it falls from Netanyahu’s hand. Katz is counting on the fact that Likud members do not like subversives plotting against the party leader and will handsomely reward those who remain loyal to the final moment. Also warming up on the bench is the man who has described himself as the “great white hope,” Nir Barkat, also a former Jerusalem mayor and dot.com billionaire. Knesset Speaker Edelstein also enjoys popularity among the Likud rank and file and believes he could luck out given that he is not perceived as a threat to the leadership and can position himself as a compromise candidate acceptable to all. Gilad Erdan, who in August declined Netanyahu’s offer to appoint him Israel’s next ambassador to the United Nations, realizes these are critical days and will probably take part in the battle for succession. All that remains is to convince Netanyahu to write a political will and exit the scene. That, much to his challengers’ chagrin, will not happen. To get the crown, they will have to fight for it.

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