Bear Valley Electric Service Integrated Resource Plan 2016 ‒ 2024
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Bear Valley Electric Service Integrated Resource Plan 2016 – 2024 June 2016 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 4 2. BVES Loads and Resources ..................................................................................... 10 2.A Description of BVES ...................................................................................... 10 2.B Summary of Loads and Resources ................................................................. 12 2.C Forecast of Load Requirements ..................................................................... 13 2.C.1 Load Duration Analysis and Conclusions ........................................... 13 2.C.2 Base Case Peak Load Forecast ........................................................... 13 2.C.3 Firm and Non-firm Peak Load Forecast ............................................. 16 2.D Forecast of Energy Sales ................................................................................ 20 2.D.1 Retail Sales Trends ............................................................................. 20 2.D.2 Economic Structure of BVES’ Service Area ...................................... 22 2.D.3 Macro Economic Outlook ................................................................... 23 2.D.4 Factors Affecting Wholesale Energy Prices ....................................... 24 2.D.5 Additional Forecast Factors ................................................................ 26 2.D.6 Energy Sales Forecast ......................................................................... 26 2.E Summary Forecast of Demand and Energy ................................................... 29 2.F Current and Planned Resources .................................................................... 31 2.F.1 Background .......................................................................................... 31 2.F.2 Current Energy Contracts .................................................................... 32 2.F.3 Bear Valley Power Plant (BVPP) ....................................................... 33 2.G Procurement Plan ........................................................................................... 34 2.H Summary and Conclusions.............................................................................. 36 3. Renewable Resources ............................................................................................... 39 4. Net Energy Metering (NEM) .................................................................................... 41 4.A Background of Net Energy Metering (NEM) Legislation .............................. 41 4.B Impact of Net Energy Metering (NEM) on BVES Sales ................................ 42 5. Other Factors Affecting Resource Procurement ....................................................... 45 5.A CAISO Wholesale Market ............................................................................. 45 5.B Resource Adequacy ....................................................................................... 47 5.B.1 Current State of RA Requirements for BVES .................................... 47 5.B.2 Background of BVES RA Proceedings .............................................. 48 5.B.3 Calculation of RA for BVES .............................................................. 49 5.B.4 Local RA Capacity .............................................................................. 50 5.B.5 Flexible Resource Adequacy Capacity ............................................... 51 5.C Energy Efficiency and Demand Response ..................................................... 52 5.C.1 Residential and Commercial Energy Efficiency .................................. 53 5.C.2 Energy Savings Assistance (ESA) Program ....................................... 54 5.C.3 Demand Response ............................................................................... 54 BVES Integrated Resource Plan for 2016-2024 2 Table of Contents (continued) 5.D Possible Rate Proposals That May Affect Resource Procurement ................ 54 5.D.1 Economic Development Rate ............................................................... 54 5.D.2 Electric Vehicles and Related Rate ...................................................... 55 5.D.3 Time-of-Use Rate ................................................................................. 57 5.E Possible Capital Projects and Other Major Initiatives ...................................... 58 5.F Greenhouse Gas Emissions............................................................................... 64 5.G Summary and Conclusions............................................................................... 65 6. Power Supply Costs .................................................................................................. 67 6.A Forecast of Power Supply Costs .................................................................... 67 6.B SCE Transmission and Distribution Charges ................................................ 70 6.C California Independent System Operator Charges ........................................ 70 6.D Congestion Costs ........................................................................................... 71 6.E Risk Management .......................................................................................... 72 6.F Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................ 79 Appendix A: Map of California Electric Utility Service Areas ..................................... 83 Appendix B: Map of California Balancing Authorities ................................................. 84 Appendix C: Map of Southern California Transmission System .................................. 85 Appendix D: Map of BVES Power and Interconnection with SCE Power Lines ......... 86 Appendix E: Monthly Average Load Curves ................................................................ 87 Appendix F: Glossary of Acronyms .............................................................................. 88 Appendix G: Composition of BVES Hourly Load ........................................................ 91 Appendix H: WECC Environmental Allowance Prices ................................................ 92 Appendix I: RPS Position Using 2015 Sales Forecast ................................................... 93 BVES Integrated Resource Plan for 2016-2024 3 1. Executive Summary The 2016-2024 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for Bear Valley Electric Service (BVES) is the primary document used in planning, evaluating and acquiring energy resources to meet the forecasted energy requirements of BVES’ retail customers, consistent with goals set by the State Legislature. The goal of the IRP is to identify reliable, best-fit, least-cost energy resources to serve the needs of BVES’ electric customers. The amount and type of resources in the IRP must also be consistent with California Public Utilities Commission (hereafter CPUC or Commission) regulations and California State laws governing, among other issues, resource adequacy, renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions limits. Note that for the IRP, BVES’ analysis used retail sales adjusted for billing lag. In other words, the analysis began with billed sales and used sample load research data to allocate the retail sales by class to each of the calendar months. The result is retail sales data that can be matched to contract and production flows, the weather, and the economy. This adjusted retail sales data is then grossed up to account for line loss to derive energy requirements for the IRP. BVES saw strong growth in total electric sales of 7.5% for 2015 as compared to 2014, driven mostly by non-permanent, single family residential and large commercial customers.1 Firm sales (non-snowmaking load) increased 4.9% over the same period while snowmaking load increased 36%. Snowmaking load for 2015 was at the 80th percentile of all annual snowmaking loads over the last 20 years, compared to the annual range of 64%.2 There have been years where snow making electric usage exceeded the levels achieved in 2015. Firm sales are tied fundamentally to economic growth in BVES’ service territory. Growth in residential and commercial classes will continue as the economy expands through the forecast horizon. These firm sales will receive a boost mid-year 2016 if electric vehicle charging stations are installed in the BVES service area. Average snowmaking load growth began in 2015 due to the expansion of BVES’ capacity to serve Bear Mountain of 1.3 MW; this growth will further increase significantly in the winter season 2018-2019 due to the planned 13 MW expansion of capacity serving Snow Summit ski resort. However, even with moderate growth increasing in 2016 through 2018, total retail sales will be dampened significantly by the production of solar generated power by net energy metering (NEM) customers. The growth in sales from 2014 to 2015 was strong despite growth in solar production of approximately 1,227,000 kWh in 2015. Slight to moderate growth in total sales is anticipated by BVES, depending on the further growth 1 Sales are billing-lag adjusted. 2 Snowmaking load has vacillated above and below an average annual amount of 14,000,000 kWh for a range of 9,000,000 kWh. BVES Integrated Resource Plan for 2016-2024 4 in net metering production. By 2020, net metering production could be as low as 5,600,000 kWh per year or as high as 12,800,000 kWh. The higher the