https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-72 Preprint. Discussion started: 9 August 2021 c Author(s) 2021. CC BY 4.0 License. Untangling the Mistral and seasonal atmospheric forcing driving deep convection in the Gulf of Lion: 2012-2013 Douglas Keller Jr.1, Yonatan Givon2, Romain Pennel1, Shira Raveh-Rubin2, and Philippe Drobinski1 1LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Palaiseau, France 2Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel Correspondence: Douglas Keller Jr. (
[email protected]) Abstract. Deep convection in the Gulf of Lion is believed to be primarily driven by the Mistral winds. However, our findings show that the seasonal atmospheric change provides roughly 2/3 of the buoyancy loss required for deep convection to occur, for the 2012 to 2013 year, with the Mistral supplying the final 1/3. Two NEMOMED12 ocean simulations of the Mediterranean Sea were run for the Aug. 1st, 2012 to July 31st, 2013 year, forced with two sets of atmospheric forcing data from a RegIPSL 5 coupled run within the Med-CORDEX framework. One set of atmospheric forcing data was left unmodified, while the other was filtered to remove the signal of the Mistral. The Control simulation featured deep convection, while the Seasonal did not. A simple model was derived, relating the anomaly scale forcing (the difference between the Control and Seasonal runs) and the seasonal scale forcing to the ocean response through the Stratification Index. This simple model revealed that the Mistral’s effect on buoyancy loss depends more on its strength rather than its frequency or duration.