The Weekly Wire

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Greetings from the Project on Middle East Democracy!

Last week, the Bahraini government handed down severe prison sentences to human rights activists and opposition leaders, and reports of torture in hospitals emerged. The international community escalated criticism of the Syrian regime, with calls for a U.N. resolution and expanded E.U. sanctions. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman called for an immediate political transition on his visit to Yemen, while the security situation continued to deteriorate. Ousted Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was sentenced to 35 years in prison in absentia. In Morocco, scholars debated the significance of the King’s proposed constitutional reforms. Look for next week to be dominated by continued violence in Syria, ongoing military trials in Bahrain, and a referendum vote on constitutional reforms in Morocco.

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The Weekly Wire

June 27, 2011 Legislation

The U.S. House of Representatives voted against a one-year authorization for the use of force in Libya. The bill, H.J. RES 68 , sponsored by Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) was defeated 123- 295, Democrats voted 225-8 against the bill and Republicans voted 115-70 in favor of the bill. The same day, the House voted against legislation to cut funding for the Libya efforts. The bill, H.R. 2278, sponsored by Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL) was defeated 180-238. Democrats voted 149-36 against the bill and Republicans voted 144-89 in favor of the bill.

Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA) introduced H.R. 2215, the Hezbollah Anti-Terrorism Act of 2011 (HATA), to “prohibit U.S. foreign assistance to a Hezbollah-dependent Lebanese government.”

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) introduced S. Res. 102, co-sponsored by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and several others. The bill endorses the administration’s intervention in Libya, but limits U.S. intervention and expires after one year.

Committee Hearings

The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations held a nomination hearing for five ambassadors to the Middle East and Central Asia. The first of the hearing’s two panels featured Anne W. Patterson, to be Ambassador to the Arab Republic of Egypt. The second panel featured Michael H. Corbin, to be Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Matthew H. Tueller, to be Ambassador to the State of Kuwait, and Susan L. Ziadeh, to be Ambassador to the State of Qatar. The hearing was presided over by Chairman John Kerry (D-MA), and ranking member Richard Lugar (R-IN).

The House Committee on Foreign Affairs hosted a hearing entitled “Iran and Syria: Next Steps.” The hearing was chaired by Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL). Also in attendance was Ranking Member Howard Berman (D-CA). The witnesses were Ambassador John R. Bolton, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Olli J. Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School; and Dr. Robert Satloff, Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Also, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia held the second hearing on “Preserving Progress: Transitioning Authority and Implementing the Strategic Framework in Iraq.” Witnesses included Max Boot, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Michael Eisenstadt, Director of Military & Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow, Center for New American Security; and Marisa Cochrane Sullivan, Deputy Director, Institute for the Study of War.

From Washington

U.S. Statements on Syria: State Department Spokesperson Victoria Nuland criticized President Bashar al-Assad’s speech, and Spokesman Mark Toner said the U.S. would like to see immediate change in Syria. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described the events in Syria as “very worrisome” and predicted that violence could escalate. Former State Department Spokesperson P.J. Crowley argued that U.S. hesitation “carries real costs,” and that the White House should declare that Assad has lost all legitimacy.

Syria Faces International Pressure: U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford and UNHCR officials traveled to northern Syria, where they noted large-scale displacement and the “fears and trauma” of the refugees. A senior Turkish official gave Assad a week to begin reforms before an unspecified “foreign intervention.” President Barack Obama agreed with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the Syrian regime must cease its crackdown and enact reforms. The EU agreed to extend sanctions against Syria, which were denounced by Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Moallem. Prominent literary figures called on the U.N. Security Council to pass the resolution against Syria. State Department Spokesperson Mark Toner reiterated U.S. support for the resolution.

Condemnation and Calls for Reform in Bahrain: Jonathan Whittall of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) alleged that security forces regularly tortured patients at the hospital that the 47 medical professionals currently on trial were working in. Human Rights organizations criticized the recent verdicts against 21 opposition figures. Brian Dooley , Malcolm Smart, and Joe Stork condemned the sentences, along with International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) and the World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT), Reporters Without Borders and more. State Department Spokesperson Mark Toner expressed concern and reiterated calls for inclusive dialogue. Assistant Secretary of State Michael H. Posner emphasized the strong relationship between the U.S. and Bahrain, and called for reforms. Justin Gengler identified weaknesses in Bahrain’s National Dialogue Initiative.

Disagreement on U.S. Role in Libya: Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and John McCain (R-AZ) chastised the growing isolationism in Congress and those threatening to undermine U.S. operations in Libya. Daniel Horowitz criticized their remarks; Jonathan Tobin defended them. Marc Lynch wrote that the administration should not shy away from Congressional approval. Senators Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) wrote an op-ed in opposition to U.S. withdrawal from Libya.

U.S. Calls for Transition in Yemen: Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman called for an “immediate” transition under the GCC agreement. There was disagreement between sources about the likelihood of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s return. State Department Spokesman Mark Toner emphasized the need for progress in the GCC transition efforts, and noted “conflicting reports” about the prison break. Daniel Green argued that the prison break demonstrates that the threat posed by al-Qaeda is concentrated in rural areas.

Debate on Role of Monarchies: Paul Richter and Neela Banerjee discussed how the Arab Spring has put Saudi Arabia and the United States on a “collision course.” Jillian Schwedler argued against the idea of monarchical exceptionalism. The State Department said that GCC invitations to Morocco and Jordan are an internal matter. And the Editorial Board for the Washington Post argued that several monarchies are rejecting the Saudi strategy and looking for ways to compromise on reform without causing revolution, citing Morocco.

Moroccan Reforms Analyzed: Marina Ottaway argued that the constitutional reforms announced by King Mohammed VI will cause significant change only with popular and parliamentary action. Betwa Sharma asserted that many are satisfied with the pace of reform, and the February 20 movement will lose steam. Nicholas Kritsof argued Moroccan reforms could serve as a moderate example. State Department Spokesperson Victoria Nuland said that the U.S. is “encouraged” by the proposals, and “we’re watching closely.”

Clinton: Saudi Women Drivers are “Brave”: In an open letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Saudi Women for Driving coalition criticized the “quiet diplomacy” approach and called on the Secretary to express her public support. Clinton then called Saudi women “brave,” but her comments appeared to reflect a weariness to exacerbating tensions with Saudi Arabia. Maureen Dowd defended Clinton’s remarks.

Fate of the TNC and Qadhafi: A piece in The National expressed concern over indications that Libya’s Transitional National Council is stepping beyond its mandate as an emergency body. And the International Criminal Court will meet Monday to decide whether Muammar Gadhafi and his son, Saif al Islam, should be arrested for civilian attacks.

Ben Ali Trial Commentary: An editorial in Le Monde criticized the case against ousted president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali citing the hypocrisy of his military trial. Robert Zeliger commented on the lessons learned from this trial.

Human Rights and Religious Power in Iran: The UN Human Rights Council appointed Ahmed Shaheed as the special rapporteur to Iran. Mehdi Khalaji discussed how Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s influence has prohibited state-building and fostered “religious despotism.”

Commentary on Islamism and Elections: Irena L. Sargsyan discussed the “Islamicization of politics” stemming from government failures to implement reform. Steven Cook discussed political and economic developments in Egypt. Eric Trager authored an assessment of the ongoing political maneuverings, and the Washington Post detailed the difficulty of building party constituencies in rural Egypt. Elias Muhanna wrote that Hezbollah does not stand to gain strategically from postponing the inevitable findings of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

U.S. Increases Support for Tunisia's Economy: Jose Fernandez, assistant secretary of the Bureau of Economic, Energy and Business Affairs attended the opening ceremony of the Tunisia Investment Forum where he presented U.S. efforts to help Tunisia's economy during this transitioning period. Among the many initiatives passed to support Tunisia, Fernandez emphasized that the U.S. would support job creation through academic exchange, skill training for the youth and institutional reforms that will encourage investment.

U.S. Plans Foreign Aid to Egypt: During their visit to Egypt, Senators John Kerry and John McCain led delegations of elected officials and business leaders, which included Field Marshall Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and Prime Minister Essam Sharaf, and chief executives of U.S. companies including, General Electric. Kerry said that the U.S. will ensure that all foreign aid to Egypt would be well spent, similar to World Bank and IMF.

Also Worth Reading

Al-Jazeera English program Inside Story discussed the lengthy prison sentences of democracy and rights activists, the divisions within Bahrain, and the upcoming national dialogue.

The International Peace Institute published poll data reflecting Egyptian sentiments on the progress of reform.

The Libya Outreach Group released a Situation Report on Libya with policy recommendations for the international community.

From the Middle East

Bahrain: Life Sentences for Leading Activists: A Bahraini court sentenced eight Shia activists, some with European passports, to life in prison and issued long jail terms for 13 others. Those convicted include Hassan Mushaima, Abdul Jalil al-Singace, Abdulhadi Al Khawajah, Saleh Al Khawajah, and Ibrahim Sharif.

Assad Speaks as Protests Continue, The Conference for Change Calls for Assad’s Resignation: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad announced the formation of a National Dialogue Authority and promised to prosecute anyone involved in killings, without referencing his own forces. The speech provoked more widespread protests, which continued despite many arrests and deaths. Pro Assad rallies coincided with the announcement of a general amnesty. Hundreds of Syrian refugees continued fleeing to Turkey as security forces escalated the military offensive in the north. The Conference for Change in Syria took place from May 31 to June 2 in Antalya, Turkey, and established 31-member Consultative Council that will be responsible for organizing and monitoring the activities related to the conference. The conference also issued a final resolution demanding for President Bashar al-Assad's resignation and handing leadership to the vice president.

Thousands Protest in Morocco: About 10,000 protested in Casablanca, Tangiers, and Rabat, rejecting the constitutional reforms recently announced by King Mohammed VI.

Egypt: Shifting Alliances Among Islamists, Amnesty International Denounces Military Trials: Despite youth member protests, the Muslim Brotherhood dismissed reformist Moneim Aboul-Fotouh for submitting his name to run for president. Young Muslim Brotherhood members announced the formation of their own political party, the Egyptian Current Party. Jama’a al-Islamiya announced plans to launch a political party called Development and Construction. A Wasat Party leader declared his support for Islamist Selim al-Awa. Many Salafis, excluding Islamic Jihad members, pledged support for Hazem Salah Abu Ismail. Secretary General of Amnesty International, Salil Shetty, called on Egyptian authorities, including the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), to support the people by abolishing repressive laws, and to use the post-Mubarak period to implement reforms. Shetty met with Egyptian officials and examined discrimination cases against women, specifically in response to the virginity tests that women were forced to endure, and non-Muslims. In the end, he said he was "optimistic" for Egypt's future. Tunisia’s Ben Ali Sentenced, while Gadhafi Insists He Will Not Leave Libya: A Tunisian court sentenced ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and his wife Leila Trabelsi to 35 years in prison, and a $66m fine. Ben Ali claimed that he was tricked into leaving Tunisia, and had planned to return. Though Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi has emphasized that he will not leave Libya, former foreign minister Abdurrahaman Shalgam said he believes Gadhafi has realized he cannot stay and may leave within the next few weeks.

Rights Abuses in Iran: The Iranian Parliament announced the UN special rapporteur for human rights could not enter the country. Twelve detainees at Tehran’s Evin prison began a hunger strike after two fellow political prisoners were killed.

Al-Qaeda Prison Break in Yemen: Prisoners with links to al-Qaeda escaped from a prison in southern Yemen. Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar insisted the opposition will be a dependable counterterrorism ally to the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman met with acting president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Yemen.

Saleh Plans Return to Yemen: Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh said that he will be returning to Yemen soon and has also made plans to make a media appearance this week, his media secretary, Ahmed al-Sufi said on June 26. Sufi also said that Saleh is in good health and continues to give orders on Yemeni affairs from Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Yemeni protesters have been demonstrating in Yemen's major cities for the removal of the president's sons and other aides.