Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 1

Better resilient than resistant Regeneration dynamics of hurricane-disturbed mangroves on Guanaja (Honduras) Thomas Fickert Physical Geography, University of Passau (Germany)

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 2

Merida second largest of the Bay Islands pronounced topography Mexico

Gulf of Honduras

Belize Bay Islands

Guanaja

Guatemala Honduras

El Salvador Nicaragua NASA worldwind location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 3

Merida

Mexico

Gulf of Honduras

Belize Bay Islands

Guanaja

Guatemala Honduras

El Salvador Nicaragua NASA worldwind location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 4

Guanaja, difference image Guanaja, plant formations Landsat 5 TM (1985) - Landsat 7 ETM+ (2001)

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 5

Guanaja, difference image Guanaja, plant formations Landsat 5 TM (1985) - Landsat 7 ETM+ (2001)

97% classified dead

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 6

6 mangrove areas studied 2005 • line-transects (> 1900 meters) • resolution of 0.1 m • conversion to % cover values for 10 m- segments • two resurveys in 2009 & 2016 0.3 m = 3% cover

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 7 in 2005 destruction and early regeneration was different due to topography and exposure to hurricane winds: Mangrove Bight • low, moderate or high regeneration classes:  West End South, Mangrove Bight, Savannah Bight: - loss of leaf buds,

- breakage of stilt roots Airport Savannah Bight - windthrow

West End El Pelican North

West End South

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 8 in 2005 destruction and early regeneration was different due to topography and exposure to hurricane winds: Mangrove Bight • low, moderate or high regeneration classes:  West End North, Airport, Pelican: - low breakage of stilt-roots

- mainly defoliation Airport Savannah Bight  resprouting

West End El Pelican North

West End South

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 9 those differences in disturbance intensity and regeneration West End North – PCA also become apparent in an PCA analysis, with Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa, Acrostichum aureum and woody debris the most important factors to define the ordination space .

• West End North: little change, vital forests in 2005 var expl. 50,7 % % 50,7

2016 2009 2005

28,0 % expl. var.

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 10 those differences in disturbance intensity and regeneration Airport - PCA also become apparent in an PCA analysis, with Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa, Acrostichum aureum and woody debris the most important factors to define the ordination space .

• West End North: little change, vital forests in 2005 var

• Airport: little change, some segments vital, some still not expl. 50,7 % % 50,7

2016 2009 2005 28,0 % expl. var.

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 11 those differences in disturbance intensity and regeneration El Pelican - PCA also become apparent in an PCA analysis, with Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa, Acrostichum aureum and woody debris the most important factors to define the ordination space .

• West End North: little change, vital forests in 2005 var

• Airport: little change, some segments vital some still not expl. • Pelican: shift to the vital site 50,7 % % 50,7

2016 2009 2005 28,0 % expl. var.

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 12 those differences in disturbance intensity and regeneration Mangrove Bight - PCA also become apparent in an PCA analysis, with Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa, Acrostichum aureum and woody debris the most important factors to define the ordination space .

• West End North: little change, vital forests in 2005 var

• Airport: little change, some segments vital some still not expl. • Pelican: shift to the vital site 50,7 % % 50,7 • Mangrove Bight: obvious change between 2005 & 2016 2016 2009 2005 28,0 % expl. var.

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 13 those differences in disturbance intensity and regeneration Savannah Bight - PCA also become apparent in an PCA analysis, with Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa, Acrostichum aureum and woody debris the most important factors to define the ordination space .

• West End North: little change, vital forests in 2005 var

• Airport: little change, some segments vital some still not expl. • Pelican: shift to the vital site 50,7 % % 50,7 • Mangrove Bight: obvious change between 2005 & 2016 • Savannah Bight: obvious change between 2005 & 2016 2016 2009 2005 28,0 % expl. var.

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 14 those differences in disturbance intensity and regeneration West End South - PCA also become apparent in an PCA analysis, with Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa, Acrostichum aureum and woody debris the most important factors to define the ordination space .

• West End North: little change, vital forests in 2005 var

• Airport: little change, some segments vital some still not expl. • Pelican: shift to the vital site 50,7 % % 50,7 • Mangrove Bight: obvious change between 2005 & 2016 • Savannah Bight: obvious change between 2005 & 2016 2016 • West End South: obvious change between 2005 & 2016 2009 2005 28,0 % expl. var.

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 15

West End South 2009 2016

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 16

Savannah Bight 2009 2016

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 17

Mangrove Bight 2009 2016

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 18 regeneration variable but progressive  West End North similar to pre-Mitch already in 2005  increase of mangrove tree cover even in the most impacted areas indicate ongoing natural regeneration  regeneration not always as auto-successional pathway as indicated by herbaceous stage in Mangrove Bight

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 19 different regeneration pathways

West End North parts of the Airport mangrove

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 20 different regeneration pathways

West End North parts of the Airport mangrove

West End South Savannah Bight

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 21 different regeneration pathways

West End North parts of the Airport mangrove

parts of Mangrove Bight parts of Savannah Bight

West End South Savannah Bight

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 22 different regeneration pathways

 mangroves on Guanaja are regenerating, West End North parts of the Airport mangrove some slower, some faster

 mangroves are not very resistant parts of Mangrove Bight parts of Savannah Bight but very resilient ecosystems West End South Savannah Bight

Mangrove Bight

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories Foro Nacional de Manglares: Gobernanza, Manejo Y Conservación, La Ceiba 27/07/2017 Better resilient than resistant – Regeneration dynamics of hurricane disturbed mangroves on the Bay Island of Guanaja Thomas Fickert – Physical Geography, University of Passau 23

thank you for your attention ...

... and the following people and institutions for support

• DFG (FI 1254/2-1 & FI 1254/4-1) • Friederike Grüninger (University of Passau) • Michael Richter & Kim Vanselow (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) • Cirilo Nelson (University of Tegucigalpa) • Harlon Richmond Hurlston Wood & Maurizio Motino (Administration of Guanaja) • Scott Duncan (planting initiative guanajamangroves.org) • Richard Buñay, Edgardo Ortega & Oscar Ramos (ESNACIFOR, Guanaja) • Lutz Dircksen & Aurel Heidelberg (Utila Iguana Research & Breeding Station, Utila)

location hurricane Mitch sampling desing destruction & regeneration dynamics successional trajectories