Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021

ANALYSIS 277 January 2021

IRAQ ASSESSMENT 2020: FOREIGN POLICY AND EXPECTATIONS FOR 2021

SALIH BERKE ŞENDAĞ I ALPER CEZMI ÖZDEMIR ANALYSISANALİZ Konu Başlığı JanuaryOcak 2021 2021 26 277

Content of this publication is copyrighted to ORSAM. Except reasonable and partial quotation and use under the Act No. 5846, Law on Intellectual and Artistic Works, via proper citation, the content may not be used or re-published without prior permission by ORSAM. The views expressed in this publication reflect only the opinions of its authors and do not represent the institutional opinion of ORSAM.

Publication Date: 10 February 2021

Center for Middle Eastern Studies Adress : Mustafa Kemal Mah. 2128 Sk. No: 3 Çankaya, ANKARA Phone : +90 850 888 15 20 Email : [email protected] Photos : Anadolu Agency (AA)

According to the second paragraph of Article 5 of the Regulation on Banderole Application Procedures and Principles, the use of banderole for this publication is not compulsory. ANALYSIS 277 January 2021

IRAQ ASSESSMENT 2020: FOREIGN POLICY AND EXPECTATIONS FOR 2021

About the Authors

Salih Berke Şendağ

Salih Berke Sendag graduated from the Middle East Technical University (METU) and the State University of New York (SUNY Binghamton) with a dual Bachelor of Arts degree in Global Politics and International Relations in 2019. In the same year, he began a master’s degree programme (with thesis) in Middle East Studies at the Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Social Sciences. He is currently working as a research assistant in the Department of Iraq Studies at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM). His general areas of interest include national identity building in the Middle East, political Islam, and US-Middle East relations.

Alper Cezmi Özdemir

Alper Cezmi Özdemir earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science and International Relations from Bahçeşehir University. At the same time, he completed his minor studies in the Department of Sociology. Between 2017 and 2019, he worked as a research assistant at the Center of Migration and Urban Studies of Bahçeşehir University (BAUMUS). At BAUMUS, he was involved in research on Syrian refugees in Turkey and the Turkish refugee regime. He completed his postgraduate studies in International Relations at the University of Chicago, where he went as a Fulbright Scholar in 2020. While in Chicago, he was involved in academic projects on the propaganda strategies of militant organisations such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda at the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST). He is currently working as a research assistant in the Department of Iraq Studies at ORSAM. CONTENTS

5 INTRODUCTION

6 FOREIGN POLICY: SOVEREIGNTY, BALANCE AND COOPERATION

8 IRAQ-IRAN RELATIONS

10 IRAQ-US RELATIONS

13 TURKEY-IRAQ RELATIONS

15 IRAQ’S RELATIONS WITH THE GULF STATES AND THE ARAB WORLD

18 IRAQ-EUROPEAN UNION RELATIONS

20 IRAQ-CHINA RELATIONS

22 IRAQ-RUSSIA RELATIONS

24 CONCLUSION AND EXPECTATIONS FOR 2O21 INTRODUCTION

ustafa al-Kadhimi, who became the lands and Belgium. Considering the effects fifth Prime Minister of Iraq in the post- of the current coronavirus pandemic, the fact M 2005 period, after forming the gov- that Prime Minister al-Kadhimi and his Minis- ernment on May 6, 2020, showed that Iraqi ters visited 15 different countries in a span of foreign policy would be built upon three basic eight months, clearly demonstrates that the principles as laid out in the government pro- Iraqi government pursues an active foreign gramme submitted to the Parliament: “sover- policy and diplomacy. eignty, balance and cooperation”. According- In fact, following the formation of the new ly, Prime Minister al-Kadhimi, during the first government, Baghdad became a popular eight months of his tenure, made diplomatic stop for many Foreign Ministers in the Middle visits to Iran, the USA, Jordan, France, Ger- East. Within eight months, the Foreign Minis- many, the United Kingdom and Turkey, re- ters of Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Finland, spectively, and concluded 2020 with another France, and Greece paid visits to Baghdad, visit to Jordan and met with King Abdullah. not to mention the high-profile visits of Egyp- In the meantime, Foreign Minister Fuad Hus- tian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and sein, Minister of Finance Ali Allawi, Minister French President Emmanuel Macron. During of Oil Ihsan Abdul Jabbar and Head of Hashd the same period, Iraqi diplomats placed equal al-Shaabi Council, Faleh al-Fayyad, and other importance on communication with region- high-profile people, engaged in intense diplo- al and global supra-state actors in addition macy and visited, in addition to the aforemen- to interstate relations. For instance, Foreign tioned countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Minister Fuad Hussein met with Jens Stolten- Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, Russia, the Nether- berg, the NATO Secretary General, and Josep

www.orsam.org.tr 5 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

Borrell, Vice President of the European Com- FOREIGN POLICY: SOVEREIGNTY, mission, and the High Representative of the BALANCE AND COOPERATION Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy in As explained in the government pro- Belgium and paid a visit to Egypt to meet with gramme approved on May 6, 2020, the Prime Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Secretary General of Minister promised that the foreign policy the Arab League. He also had a meeting with would be based on the principles of “sover- Dr. Nayef Falah M. Al-Hajraf, the Secretary eignty, balance and cooperation”. The Prime General of the Cooperation Council for the Minister paid special attention to the principle Arab States of the Gulf, in addition to bilateral of sovereignty and constantly emphasized meetings with the Foreign Ministers of Oman, in his press conferences that the sovereign- Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and South Korea during ty rights would be their red line. Indeed, the the same summit. government programme approved in the Prime Minister al-Kadhimi and his min- parliament states that Iraqi lands cannot be isters usually focused on the ongoing fight used as a battlefield for global wars and that against ISIS, the coronavirus pandemic, fall- Iraqi lands cannot be used for any attack on ing Brent oil prices, the financial recession and any neighboring country.1 The fact that Iraq other problems affecting Iraq and the regional became the basis of escalating tensions be- conjecture. During his meetings with his Eu- tween the USA and Iran in late 2019 and ear- ropean peers, al-Kadhimi praised Germany, ly 2020, and how these two countries com- France and the United Kingdom, all a part of pletely ignored the sovereignty of Iraq, makes the International Coalition, for their support to the great importance the new government Iraq in the fight against ISIS and encouraged attaches to the sovereignty in foreign policy those countries to invest in Iraq. During his even more meaningful. European tour, Al-Kadhimi shared the details Balance, which is another foreign policy of his economic reform plan with European principle, implies that Iraq refuses to position investors and public. In a similar manner, al- itself according to any regional or internation- Kadhimi thanked Iran and the USA for their ef- al axis and that the country is committed to forts against ISIS and expressed his desire for building positive and constructive relations stronger relations with them. Especially, the with the whole world, particularly Muslim dialogues ongoing with the important players countries, and the neighbouring Arab coun- of Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia for tries. In this way, it was thought that the princi- oil and energy, raise the question whether the ple of balance in foreign policy making would policy of balance adopted by Iraq is now be- pave the way for the cooperation factor, and it ing tipped in favor of the Arab world. Never- was stated that Iraq aimed to cooperate with theless, since the fight against ISIS is not over all international actors in accordance with yet, security issues are still at the forefront of common interests, regardless of any axis. any discussions Iraqi politicians have with foreign players. Despite this fact, it is noteworthy The foreign policy principles followed by that the al-Kadhimi government opted for an the Kadhimi government are largely consis- economic diplomacy to encourage invest- tent with the foreign policy principles adopted ment in Iraq’s oil and energy areas during their by the governments of Adil Abdul-Mahdi and meetings. Haider al-Abadi, the predecessors of Musta-

1 “Iraq’s Parliament Approves Government Programme”, Government of Iraq, 2020.

6 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

fa al-Kadhimi. Indeed, ’Haider rights for nearly fifteen years as al-Abadi took steps to reposition a journalist and editor, and thus Iraqi foreign policy after al-Mali- had the chance to personally ki’s term in office; he stated that observe and analyze the change they would pursue a policy of in Iraqi foreign policy after the not being part of any axis or al- Maliki era. Indeed, in some of liances in the Middle East, and the articles he wrote on Al-Mon- in this direction, he committed itor during his term, Mustafa al- to developing close relations Kadhimi criticized the foreign with Iraq’s neighbors and part- policy approach based on the ners, especially the Arab coun- personal feelings of the political The foreign tries. Both Haider al-Abadi and elites and strongly opposed the policy principles Adil Abdul-Mahdi declared that axis politics.2 During the same followed by they could not accept any threat period, Kadhimi stressed that “in the Kadhimi of attack on Iran from Iraqi ter- order for Iraq to become an im- government ritory, and neighboring Iran is portant actor in the international are largely an indispensable partner for arena, it should pursue a policy consistent with Iraq. Nevertheless, both former of balance, but it should also the foreign Prime Ministers pursued a policy show that it can take indepen- policy principles of balance between the parties dent decisions without being adopted by the in the US-Iran tension and took influenced while implementing 3 governments steps to keep Iraq out of this this policy”. conflict. Although such an ap- of Adil Abdul- In this regard, Mustafa al- proach has been met with reac- Mahdi and Kadhimi appreciated that the tions from Iraq’s important part- Haider al- Abadi government began to ners, such as the United States, repair relations that had deteri- Abadi, the Iran and Saudi Arabia, in various orated in previous periods with predecessors cases, the Iraqi governments Saudi Arabia, the United Arab of Mustafa al- formed in the post-Maliki era Emirates, Qatar, and Turkey. In Kadhimi. tried to stick to their approach contrast to the understanding of balance by attaching impor- that reduces foreign relations tance to common interests and to official visits between- gov cooperation in the international ernments or conflict resolution, arena. Kadhimi considers diplomacy Prior to his appointment as an opportunity for regional and head of the Iraqi National Intel- global cooperation, particular- ligence Service in 2016, Prime ly in the fields of economics, Minister Kadhimi closely fol- culture, and education, and he lowed issues such as democ- believes that, if close and sus- racy, Iraqi politics and human tainable inter-community coop-

2 Mustafa al-Kadhimi, “Iraq Should Use IS War to Rebuild Foreign Relations”, Al-Monitor, 2014. Accessed on January 2, 2021. 3 Mustafa al-Kadhimi, “Iraq Maintains Neutrality in Regional Conflicts”, Al-Monitor, 2015, Accessed on January 2, 2021.

www.orsam.org.tr 7 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

eration is achieved in these areas, the path term after the foreign ministers of Kuwait and to wider integration including security will be Jordan. Jawad Zarif’s trip to Baghdad just one opened in the region. Therefore, it can be ar- day before Prime Minister Kadhimi’s planned gued that Mustafa al-Kadhimi adopted a for- visit to Riyadh was interpreted by some cir- eign policy approach based on international cles as Zarif’s visit was aimed at indoctrinating common interests by working with all parties, Prime Minister Kadhimi prior to his contacts not on a single axis, years before he came to with Saudi Arabia, and Iran wanted to send a power. message to Saudi Arabia via Iraq.4 Contrary to such speculations, official sources noted that IRAQ-IRAN RELATIONS Zarif’s Baghdad contacts were intended as a Prime Minister Kadhimi, like his prede- preparation for Prime Minister Kadhimi’s up- cessor Adil Abdul-Mahdi, who made his first coming visit to Tehran. overseas visit to Egypt, wanted to make his first foreign contact with a visit to Riyadh Kadhimi described the relations between from neighboring Arab countries, but due to Iraq and Iran as deep and friendly in some of the health problems of King Salman bin Ab- his articles during his time as a journalist and dul-Aziz of Saudi Arabia, this visit was post- editor but stated that this friendship between poned indefinitely to a later date, and he made the two countries should not have any neg- his first overseas visit to Tehran on July 21. Two ative impact on Iraq’s foreign relations. Main- days before this visit, Iranian Foreign Minister taining such an approach, Mustafa Kadhimi Javad Zarif visited Iraq and held extensive made his first international visit to Tehran with contacts in Baghdad and Erbil. With this visit, his delegation on July 21, 2020. During this visit, Javad Zarif became the third foreign minis- Iran attached special importance to the proto- ter to pay a visit to Baghdad during Kadhimi’s col and President Hassan Rouhani welcomed

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is welcoming Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi with an official ceremony at the Sa’dabad Complex.

4 “Zarif Delivers Message To Saudi Arabia From Baghdad: Report”, Tehran Times, 2020, Accessed on January 2, 2021.

8 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

Prime Minister Kadhimi with brotherly, noting that the two a state ceremony, and Iranian countries had similar histori- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, cal, religious, and cultural ties. who did not meet face-to-face However, Khamenei adopted a with anyone other than Pres- sharper style in his statements ident Rouhani for five months compared to President Rouhani, due to the Coronavirus outbreak, and although he stated that Iran accepted him in his office, privi- never had any desire to inter- leging Prime Minister Kadhimi. In fere in Iraq’s internal affairs, he addition to such symbolic ges- devoted most of his speech to tures, the parties’ referring to the suggestions about the American Khamenei closeness of Iran-Iraq relations presence in Iraq. Underlining adopted a and their characterization of re- that Iran did not interfere with the sharper style in lations between the two coun- US-Iraq relations, Khamenei said his statements tries as brotherly drew attention. that, on the contrary, the US op- compared Kadhimi stressed that Iran was posed the development of Iran- one of the first states to come to Iraq relations, suggesting that to President help in the fight against ISIS, and the American presence in any Rouhani, and this would always be remem- country only brought degener- although he bered, noting that they would ation and destruction. Noting stated that not allow any threat targeting that the non-binding resolution Iran never had Iran from Iraqi territory. President taken in the Iraqi Parliament to any desire to Hassan Rouhani announced expel American troops from the interfere in that Prime Minister Kadhimi’s country should be implement- Iraq’s internal visit marked a turning point in ed, Khamenei stated that, unlike affairs, he Iran-Iraq relations. At this point, Iran, the USA is against an inde- devoted most Prime Minister Kadhimi em- pendent and powerful Iraq. of his speech phasized during the joint press Therefore, it can be said that conference which he held with to suggestions during his visit to Tehran, Prime President Hassan Rouhani that about the Minister Kadhimi reaffirmed the the Iraqi people always wanted American importance of Iran as a region- a special cooperation with Iran presence in Iraq. al partner for Iraq once again within the framework of mutual and that he did not ignore the respect and non-interference in importance of economic and domestic affairs, and Kadhimi’s social cooperation between rhetoric resonated widely, es- the two countries. Nonetheless, pecially among Western media Kadhimi’s declaration in Tehran and think tanks. that the Iraqi people have al- Iran’s spiritual leader Khame- ways wanted to cooperate with nei, like President Hassan Rou- Iran within the framework of mu- hani, stated in his meeting tual respect and non-interfer- with Kadhimi that the relations ence in domestic affairs can be between Iran and Iraq were interpreted as Kadhimi’s desire

www.orsam.org.tr 9 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

to establish relations between the two coun- Consequently, the Patriot missile defense tries as two equal and sovereign states in the system was deployed and activated at Ayn new era. al-Assad Airbase in April 2020 to prevent future Iranian attacks.7 Patriot missile systems, IRAQ-US RELATIONS the failure of Iraqi security forces to prevent Relations between Iraq and the United Iranian attacks and the US killing one of Iraq’s States have reached a problematic point last leading military leaders on Iraqi soil have year due to the presence of American troops impeded negotiations between the Trump in Iraq and the transfer of the Iran-US conflict administration and the Abdul-Mahdi govern- to Iraqi territory. In particular, the US assassi- ment over Patriot systems, making it difficult nation operation that resulted in the killing of to reach a compromise. General Qassem Soleimani, the Head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds On the other hand, the US administration, Force and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Head of which sees Iraq in a central position in the fight pro-Iranian Kataib Hezbollah, in Baghdad in against Iran, has also taken steps to keep Iraq January 2020 was strongly condemned by the on its side. For instance, the US, which reintro- Iraqi administration. In response to this attack, duced sanctions targeting the Iranian econ- the Iraqi parliament, which described the as- omy in November 2018, granted Iraq an ex- sassination as an act violating Iraqi sovereign- emption on energy trade, taking into account ty, adopted a resolution for the US forces to Iraq’s energy dependence on Iran. Since No- leave Iraq, making US-Iraqi relations extreme- vember 2018, the Trump administration has ly difficult. So much so that President Trump, renewed its sanctions exemption to allow Iraq known for his reflexes against the presence to pay Iran in line with its energy needs, first of US forces in the Middle East, threatened at four-month intervals, then at gradually de- sanctions that would collapse the Iraqi econ- creasing intervals.8 9 omy in response to the resolution taken at the Reviewing the government programme Iraqi parliament.5 Rocket attacks by pro-Irani- presented to the parliament by Mustafa al- an militias against US forces in Iraq and the Kadhimi who founded the government in failure of Iraqi security forces to prevent these May 2020 will give an idea about his stance attacks have also raised the possibility that towards the USA. As stated in the govern- the Trump administration would close the US ment programme, the priority of the Kadhimi Embassy in Baghdad.6 administration is the protection of Iraqi na- After the assassination, Iran’s rocket at- tional sovereignty and the security of the tacks targeting US forces in Iraq brought Pa- Iraqi people. His stance parallels the foreign triot missile defense systems to the agenda. policy vision of the Abdul-Mahdi adminis-

5 Michael Gabriel Hernandez, “Trump Warns Iraq of Sanctions if US Forces Expelled”, Anadolu Agency, 2020, Accessed on December 31, 2020. 6 Betul Yuruk, “US Threatens to Shut Down Baghdad Embassy Over Attacks”, Anadolu Agency, 2020, Accessed on December 31, 2020. 7 Lolita Baldor, “Patriot Missile Defense Systems Now Active In Iraq, Say US Officials”, Defense News, 2020, Accessed on December 31, 2020. 8 Ahmed Rasheed and Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. Extends Sanctions Waiver For Iraq To Import Iranian Gas, Power”, Reuters, 2018, Accessed on January 1, 2021. 9 Ben Lando, “Iraq Receives 90-Day Iran Sanctions Waiver from Outgoing U.S. Administration”, Iraq Oil Report, 2021, Accessed on January 3, 2021.

10 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

tration and shows that the Iraqi The Trump administration administration’s preference is refrained from giving a specif- that the US forces leave the re- ic date for the full withdraw- gion in the long term. While all al of US forces from Iraq after these developments bring to Kadhimi’s visit. However, shortly mind the thoughts that the US after Kadhimi’s US contacts, it withdrawal from the Middle East was announced that the num- is approaching and Iran’s influ- ber of US forces stationed in Iraq ence in the region will increase, would be reduced from around the Iraqi and US administrations 5,000 to 2,500. The main con- The main have taken important steps in cern of the US administration in concern developing bilateral relations maintaining its military presence of the US and fighting terrorism in the past in the region has been the reac- administration year. The visit of Prime Minister tivation of the terrorist group ISIS after the US withdrawal, and the in maintaining Kadhimi and senior ministers to increased influence of pro-Ira- its military the USA in August 2020 was in- strumental in taking these steps. nian militias in Iraq. Therefore, presence in the although the preference of both region has been Indeed, the Ministerial Delega- tion headed by Iraq’s Oil Minister the Iraqi administration and the reactivation Ihsan Abdul Jabbar, who accom- the US President Trump is that of the terrorist panied Prime Minister Kadhimi, American troops leave the re- group ISIS met with US Energy Secretary gion, it is highly likely that the after the US Dan Brouillette and negotiated American military presence in withdrawal, and bilateral energy cooperation, Iraq will continue in the region, although gradually decreasing. the increased signing an additional $8 billion Because structural factors such influence of pro- trade agreement in addition to as Iraqi security institutions’ Iranian militias the previous trade agreements weaknesses and strategic pri- in Iraq. between the two countries.10 orities of the USA in the region Moreover, both US Secretary are signs that this situation will of State Mike Pompeo and his continue. Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein stressed the importance of the There are comments regard- Iraqi state maintaining its sov- ing this situation that with Joe ereignty over its territory and Biden coming to power, the Unit- controlling pro-Iranian militias.11 ed States will reduce its pres- Mike Pompeo stated that the US ence in Iraq to manage relations would support the Iraqi govern- with Iran, which will increase the ment in this regard. influence of pro-Iranian militias in

10 “Secretary Brouillette Participates in Official Visit for Iraqi Delegation”, U.S. Department Of Energy, 2020, Accessed on January 3, 2021. 11 “Remarks by President Trump and Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi of the Republic of Iraq Before Bilateral Meeting”, The White House, 2020, Accessed on January 4, 2021.

www.orsam.org.tr 11 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

the region.12 It is alleged that the Looking at the issue from the Biden administration may aban- Iranian perspective, harsh sanc- don sanctions on Iran and soft- tions preferred by the Trump en its stance toward the militia administration have strained in Iraq to re-sign a nuclear deal the Iranian economy, and Iran with the Iranian administration. is open to negotiations with the Nevertheless, it is possible for new American administration. In the US administration to main- other words, the Biden adminis- tain its tough stance on Iranian tration’s move to ease econom- proxy forces in the region while ic sanctions may be enough to continuing to negotiate with bring Iran to the table on de- The Biden Iran on denuclearization, just as nuclearization, even if it does administration in the Obama era. In fact, the not change its position in Iraq. seems to agreement signed in 2015 was The challenge the Kadhimi ad- continue to limited to Iran’s nuclear weapon ministration faces in this regard production capacity and did not is that its attitude towards Iran support the include other disputes between and the US is contradictory. On Kadhimi the two countries. the one hand, it wants US forces government in to leave the country, but on the If the Biden administration the fight against other hand, it wants to control wants results on the nuclear pro-Iranian pro-Iranian militias. But when it deal, it must also get the vote militias in Iraq comes to the US-Iran rivalry, the of the “Iran hawks” in the U.S. and to relieve influence of the other will inev- Senate and House of Represen- economic itably increase if one of the two tatives. This indicates that politi- sanctions against forces leaves the country. This cians such as Mike Pompeo will Iran in order to is because Iraq’s independent continue to influence US-Iran strike a balance military capacity is not enough relations in the coming years. to drive foreign forces out of the in managing The political faction in the USA country. This troubled situation tensions with which prefers to take more dras- pushes Kadhimi to find a -bal Iranit. tic measures against Iran will ance between the two forces. not agree to a political solution in which Iran has a free pres- It should be said that Iraq- ence in Iraq. Consequently, the US relations are full of contra- Biden administration seems to dictions due to the increasing continue to support the Kadhimi Iran-US tensions and restrictions government in the fight against in Iraqi domestic politics. When pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and domestic policy balances in the to relieve economic sanctions US are added on top of this, it against Iran in order to strike a can be said that the new Biden balance in managing tensions administration will neither fully with Iran. withdraw from Iraq nor increase

12 “Iraq’s pro-Iran Factions See Smoother Sailing with Biden At Helm”, France 24, 2020, Accessed on January 5, 2021.

12 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi signing the White House guestbook during his visit to Washington. its military activities. Therefore, although the gained momentum, Turkey adopted the pol- Kadhimi government has to pursue a balance icy of Iraq’s territorial integrity and political policy between the US and Iran, the Biden ad- unity, which it still maintains today, and con- ministration will seek a balance in Iraq due to sidered a scenario such as the division of Iraq the Iran hawks in US politics and the possibil- into three parts as the only threat that could ity of ISIS to be on the rise again. trigger a possible civil war in the country. In accordance with the Strategic Framework TURKEY-IRAQ RELATIONS Agreement signed between Iraq and the US During the 2003 invasion, Turkey, the US, in 2008, the US ended its military presence in and Iran were three of the countries which Iraq as of December 31, 2011, thus, the doors tried to keep their embassies in Iraq opera- were opened to Nouri al-Maliki’s pursuit of tional, and although the political and social a policy closer to Iran in foreign policy and a situation in Iraq became increasingly complex more dominant sectarian policy at home after and dangerous during this period, Turkey did 2011. Indeed, relations between Turkey and not reduce its contacts with Iraq, especial- Iraq continued in an increasingly tense atmo- ly in terms of economic relations. Indeed, a sphere after 2011, but they were revived when High-level Strategic Cooperation Council was Haider al-Abadi formed Iraq’s new govern- established between Turkey and Iraq in 2008, ment in September 2014. Abadi made a visit to and 48 agreements were signed between Turkey after only three months and declared the two countries a year later. In 2009, the that Iraq wanted to improve relations with Tur- trade volume between the two countries was key in all areas. Accordingly, the Turkey-Iraq around $ 5 billion, and today it has exceeded High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council $17 billion. was reconvened in the last days of 2014.

Especially in the late 2000s, when the de- After Haider al-Abadi declared victory over bates on the division of Iraq into three parts ISIS in 2017, Turkey came to the forefront as

www.orsam.org.tr 13 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

one of the most important actors who could condemning the Paw-Eagle and Paw-Tiger contribute to Iraq’s reconstruction process. In Operations mentioned the PKK as a terrorist this direction, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavu- organization in their statements, on the con- soglu participated in the International Confer- trary, it was suggested that the United Arab ence for Reconstruction of Iraq held in Kuwait Emirates, which did not recognize the PKK as in 2018, and Turkey pledged $5 billion in loans a terrorist organization, provided financial as- and $50 million in project assistance to Iraq at sistance to the organization in Northern Iraq13 the conference. Unlike Iran, which did not at- and intelligence and training support in Syr- tend this conference for the reconstruction of ia during the same period.14 Thus, Turkey’s Iraq, and the United States, which announced Ambassador to Iraq, Fatih Yildiz, summoned $3 billion in incentives for American companies to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, clearly - ex investing in Iraq rather than any financial aid, plained to the Iraqi authorities that Turkey Turkey attracted attention for its approach to would continue to fight the PKK wherever it Iraq. Former Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, was, unless steps were taken to end the PKK who paid a visit to Ankara in May 2019, noted presence in the country. that Turkey did not leave Iraq at a time when During his visit to Ankara, Prime Minister people were afraid and left Iraq, noting that Kadhimi, like his predecessor Adil Abdul-Mah- Turkey was on Iraq’s side even in the most dif- di, stated at the joint press conference held ficult times. Explaining that they were grateful on December 17, 2020, that Iraq’s position was to Turkey for embracing Iraqi refugees, Prime clear and that they would not allow any for- Minister Abdul-Mahdi also stressed that they mation that threatens Turkey’s national secu- would not allow any security threats targeting rity in Iraqi territory. Although Kadhimi did not Turkey from Iraqi soil. mention the name PKK, he stated that they Following the formation of Iraq’s new gov- wanted to cooperate with Turkey against ISIS ernment by Mustafa al-Kadhimi on May 6, and other terrorist organizations and that they 2020, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called took this step in Sinjar. Kadhimi, who made a Kadhimi and became one of the first leaders statement of non-interference in internal affairs and mutual respect during his visit to Iran, to wish success in his new post. The most im- declared that contrary to such a statement, portant test in bilateral relations in the new they wanted to improve cooperation between period, was the Claw-Eagle and Claw-Tiger Turkey and Iraq during the talks in Ankara. As Operations launched by the Turkish Armed part of the visit, a “Memorandum of Under- Forces against the PKK presence in North- standing on Cultural Cooperation between ern Iraq in June 2020, as the operations were Turkey and Iraq” and “The Treaty on Avoid- interpreted by the Iraqi side as an attack on ing Double Taxation and Tax Evasion” were the country’s sovereignty. At this point, France signed, and the reconvention of the High-Lev- and the Arab League’s major members, Egypt, el Strategic Cooperation Council between the Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two countries was announced. tried to position Iraq on an anti-Turkey axis by sharing statements that referred to Iraq’s Turkey is a gateway to Europe for the Iraqi sovereignty. However, none of the countries energy sector, and Iraq is a gateway to the Gulf

13 “UAE Supports PKK Terrorist Group, Report Says”, Middle East Monitor, 2020, Accessed on January 6, 2021. 14 Mohamad Misto and Mohammed Hocaoglu, “UAE Spy Agents Train PKK Terrorists in Syria”, Anadolu Agency, 2020, Accessed on January 6, 2021.

14 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is welcoming Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi with an official ceremony at the Presidential Complex

markets for Turkey. Despite the most important concerns in the tensions in Turkey-Iraq relations region, and President Erdogan Turkey is a gateway and the turbulent periods in Iraq thanked Prime Minister Kadhimi to Europe for from time to time in the post- for including a Turkmen minister the Iraqi energy 2003 period, Turkish companies in his cabinet. sector, and Iraq is have not given up on their invest- IRAQ’S RELATIONS WITH a gateway to the ments in Iraq, and the volume of Gulf markets for trade between the two countries THE GULF STATES AND Turkey. Despite the has tripled in the last decade. THE ARAB WORLD tensions in Turkey- Therefore, it will not be wrong to Despite the gradual normal- Iraq relations and suggest that the economic ties ization of Iraq’s relations with the turbulent between Turkey and Iraq have neighboring Arab countries in periods in Iraq from developed resistance to politi- the post-2003 period, King Ab- cal or social internal and external dullah of Saudi Arabia at the time to time in the crises. Judging from the securi- time considered Prime Minister post-2003 period, ty perspective, Turkey considers Nouri al-Maliki as a leader who Turkish companies the protection of Iraq’s unity and was very close to Iran and who have not given integrity as an essential element pursued Shiite sectarian poli- up on their for regional stability and, on the cies, thus the normalization of investments in Iraq, other hand, maintains its reso- relations between Iraq and Saudi and the volume of lute position in preventing terror- Arabia was only possible when trade between the ist activities originating from Iraqi power changed hands in the two two countries has territory and threatening Turkey. countries. Indeed, a new era be- tripled in the last In addition, the Turkmen popula- gan in Iraq-Saudi Arabia relations decade. tion in Iraq, where Turkey has his- with the formation of the new torical, cultural, and social ties, government by Haider al-Aba- continued to be one of Turkey’s di in 2014 and King Salman bin

www.orsam.org.tr 15 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

Abdulaziz becoming the King al-Sharif in Baghdad in the same of Saudi Arabia in 2015. In this year. Although Jordan, like Saudi direction, Saudi Arabia appoint- Arabia, was uncomfortable with ed an ambassador to Baghdad the sectarian policies pursued in the last days of 2015 for the by Prime Minister Maliki and the first time since the Gulf War, and growing Iranian influence in Iraq, a Saudi Foreign Minister visited King Abdullah visited Baghdad in Iraq after the war for the first time 2008 and became the first Arab in 2017. While he was a journalist leader to visit Baghdad in the The summit and editor, Kadhimi supported post-2003 period, announcing between Egypt, Iraq’s developing relations with his desire to improve coopera- Jordan and Iraq, the neighboring Arab world and tion between the two countries. and the relations described Saudi Arabia-Iraq re- In fact, it was not until Decem- that gained lations as an undeniable geo- ber 2008 that Bahrain, the Unit- momentum with graphical and cultural necessity ed Arab Emirates and Syria in an article he wrote during this reopened their representative Saudi Arabia period15, and while he was the offices in Iraq, and in the same brought along the head of the Iraqi National Intel- year Kuwait appointed an am- axis debate in Iraqi ligence Service, he proved to bassador to Baghdad for the first foreign policy. be a figure who could work with time since the Gulf War. In 2012, This was to the Saudi Arabia. The opening of Sabah Al-Sabah, the Emir of Ku- extentSo much the Jadidah-Arar border cross- wait at the time, visited Baghdad so that some Iraqi ing between Saudi Arabia and as part of the Arab League sum- politicians drew Iraq in November 2020 after 29 mit and opened a new page in attention to the years constituted therefore one Iraq-Kuwait relations. alignment of Iraqi of the most concrete steps of Iraq has adopted a policy of foreign policy with Kadhimi’s term for the develop- not being a party to the allianc- Arab countries, ment of relations between the es between neighboring Arab two countries. and some scholars countries due to the policy of argued that Iraq In contrast to its relations with balance and respect for the returned to the Saudi Arabia, Iraq’s relations with country’s sovereignty, and in this Arab world again. other actors in the Arab world respect, it has not been involved have recovered more rapidly in in the Qatar blockade that be- the post-2003 period, except for gan in the Gulf in 2017. Similar- a few momentary fluctuations. ly, Iraq remained silent towards While Egypt became the first the Gulf countries normalizing Arab country to appoint an am- their relations with Israel, and bassador to Baghdad in 2005, Ahmed Mulla Talal, the govern- Egypt did not appoint a new ment spokesman at the time, one until 2009 following the as- announced that Iraq would not sassination of Ambassador Ihab interfere in an issue concerning

15 Mustafa al-Kadhimi, “Could Saudi-Iraqi Ties be Key to Defeating Islamic State?”, Al-Monitor, 2015, Accessed on January 4, 2021.

16 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

other countries’ sovereignty. In light of these that Iraq is unable to meet domestic con- principles, Kadhimi, who desired deeper eco- sumers’ demand for electricity, especially in nomic and social integration with Arab part- the summer, and wants to diversify Iranian ners in the Middle East, attended the Egypt- hegemony in electricity imports, the sign- Jordan-Iraq trilateral summit held in Amman ing of a memorandum of understanding be- on August 25, 2020. Likewise, Foreign Minis- tween Jordan and Iraq in September 2020 to ter Fuad Hussein met with his Egyptian and connect the two countries’ electricity grids is Jordanian counterparts in Cairo on October noteworthy. Parallel to this, The Saudi-Iraqi 13, 2020. In fact, the trilateral summit be- Coordinating Council convened in Riyadh, co- tween Egypt, Jordan and Iraq first began with chaired by Saudi Arabian Investment Minister the meeting of the parties in Cairo in March Khalid al-Falih and Iraqi Minister of Planning 2019, and in the same year, representatives Khaled Battal Al-Najm, in October 2020. As of the three countries held talks in New York part of the council meeting, the Saudi minister after the regular annual meeting of the Unit- of investment, who stated that they examined ed Nations General Assembly in September. investment opportunities in Iraq, especially in The summit between Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, the fields of energy, industry and agriculture, and the relations that gained momentum with noted that Saudi Arabia’s investment in Iraq Saudi Arabia brought along the axis debate already reached $530 million, and announced in Iraqi foreign policy. This was to the extent that the kingdom aimed to increase its invest- that some Iraqi politicians drew attention to ment in Iraq by almost fivefold to $2.6 billion. the alignment of Iraqi foreign policy with Arab Indeed, one month after this meeting, Prime countries, and some scholars argued that Iraq Minister Kadhimi and Saudi Crown Prince Mo- returned to the Arab world again. hammed bin Salman discussed the economic opportunities between Iraq and Saudi Arabia Before his visit to Jordan on August 25, by video conference. 2020, Kadhimi declared that they adopted a cooperative attitude in Iraq’s Middle East ap- As mentioned earlier, Prime Minister proach, and in this regard, he described the Kadhimi considers cooperation in these ar- summit as the meeting of brothers in his post eas as the beginning of a path that can evolve on his social media account after the Amman into deeper integration in the region, includ- Summit. In the same post, Kadhimi evaluated ing security, in the future. Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the summit between Iraq-Jordan-Egypt as “a known as a pragmatic figure, has established gateway to the future in terms of develop- close relations with Iraq’s Arab partners, es- ment and prosperity that will revive the spir- pecially Saudi Arabia, for the foreign capital it of dialogue, understanding, and security in investment that Iraq urgently needs. Howev- the region.” Given the fact that oil prices are er, any agreement to be signed with the Arab lower than expected and Iraq’s financial crisis, countries, like any other agreement, must be Iraq’s rapprochement with its Arab neighbors approved by the Iraqi House of Representa- stands out primarily with its commercial, dip- tives. Therefore, the attitude of the blocs clos- lomatic and cultural cooperation. In this direc- er to Iran in the Iraqi parliament against the tion, agreements were signed for cooperation bills that involve deeper cooperation with the in the fields of energy, trade, education and Arab world will play a significant role at this health in the trilateral summit held between point. Because the State of Law Coalition led Iraq, Jordan and Egypt in 2020. Considering by Nouri al-Maliki opposed Saudi investments

www.orsam.org.tr 17 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

to energy and economic cooperation opportunities.

In Paris, Kadhimi’s first European stop, President Macron said French experts would continue their work within the United Na- tions Mine Action Service in Iraq, noting that France would contribute to the return of dis- placed people to their homes in Iraq. Macron also announced that France would provide €1 million in aid to the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq. A letter of intent was signed between the French company Alstom and the Iraqi Minis- try of Transport for the construction of a tram Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, King Abdullah bin Al- Husssein and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi are at line in Baghdad, and the parties expressed the Jordan-Egypt-Iraq Trilateral Summit held in Amman on their satisfaction with the efforts of the French August 25, 2020. companies to rehabilitate the Iraqi electricity in Iraq and called these investments as colo- infrastructure. Kadhimi’s visit to France took nialism. Nevertheless, for Iraq whose sover- place approximately one and a half months eignty is violated due to the US-Iran conflict after Macron’s visits to Baghdad. After the bi- and which has a very fragile socioeconomic lateral meeting at the Élysée Palace, Macron structure at home, the Gulf and Levant regions shared a photo of himself with Prime Minis- provide an opportunity to diversify its trade ter Kadhimi on his Twitter account, saying in partners, balance an important actor like Iran Arabic that “France will continue to respect in foreign policy, and to emphasize that sec- Iraq’s sovereignty and support Iraq in the fight tarianism has ceased to be a policy-making against terrorism.” element in contrast to the Maliki era. Thus, it would not be wrong to say that IRAQ-EUROPEAN UNION Kadhimi repeated the messages emphasized RELATIONS by Macron during his visit to Baghdad. At this point, it is noteworthy that French companies On 18 October 2020, Prime Minister have recently increased their activities in the Kadhimi travelled to Paris and began his four- reconstruction process of Iraq and have par- day visit to European countries starting from ticipated in large-scale public project tenders France, Germany and then the United King- in Iraq, including Mosul Airport. dom. During his visit to Europe, Kadhimi was accompanied by the Iraqi ministers of finance, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, petroleum, defense and foreign affairs as who was in Germany about a month be- well as the head of the Central Bank and the fore Kadhimi’s visit to Berlin, stated at a joint chairman of the Investment Commission. In press conference with his German counter- this regard, Prime Minister Kadhimi met with part Heiko Maas that Iraqi security forces still his counterparts Emmanuel Macron, Angela needed the assistance of International Co- Merkel and Boris Johnson on his European alition countries, including Germany, in the tour and discussed many issues with Europe- fields of training, intelligence and guidance in an leaders from fighting ISIS and coronavirus the fight against ISIS. Indeed, during Kadhimi’s

18 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi at a joint press conference with Chancellor Angela Merkel during his visit to Berlin. meeting with Angela Merkel, Germany’s sup- plan prepared by his government to investors port for Iraqi security forces was discussed, and leaders and found support from Europe and Merkel underlined that ISIS continued for the reforms he wanted to implement in do- to be a threat to Germany as well as Iraq. In mestic policy, such as implementing a state this context, Merkel stated that although Ger- monopoly over arms in the country. Kadhimi’s many would reduce its military presence in visit to Europe came shortly after the brutal the region, it would continue to contribute murder of a teacher named Samuel Paty in to the fight against ISIS as part of the- Inter France by an extremist militant on October national Coalition and NATO. At a joint press 16, 2020, hence it was once again confirmed conference, Merkel praised the Iraqi govern- that the fight against ISIS sympathizers and ment’s will to reform, describing the Kadhimi the ideology represented by the organization government programme as quite ambitious, remained important to Europe. Nevertheless, and Kadhimi called on German companies to Kadhimi’s statements during his visit to Eu- invest in Iraq in the country’s reconstruction rope, especially in London, that he was trying process. to maintain an impossible balance between the United States and Iran, made an impact. After Berlin, Prime Minister Kadhimi went Prime Minister Kadhimi likened the balance to London, where he held talks with Prime policy he tried to implement between the Minister Boris Johnson and Prince Charles. two countries to “riding a bicycle on a rope During Kadhimi’s visits to Europe between 18 between two skyscrapers”, stating that he and 22 October 2020, issues of economic co- danced with snakes every day and looked for operation and the fight against ISIS came to a flute to control these snakes.16 In response the fore. During his European Tour, Prime Min- to criticism that he remained too cautious ister Kadhimi introduced the economic reform about reforms, Kadhimi stated that “debating

16 Patrick Wintour, “Iraq’s Prime Minister Says Country On Tightrope Between US And Iran”, The Guardian, 2020, Accessed on January 5, 2021.

www.orsam.org.tr 19 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

for a thousand years is far bet- Chinese investment. In fact, the ter than a momentary conflict,” first steps to ensure the partic- underlining that he would rather ipation of Iraq in the One Belt persevere than be plunged into One Road Project, which will chaos. carry the Iraqi-Chinese relations to a higher level, were taken by IRAQ-CHINA RELATIONS the Abdul-Mahdi government in China-Iraq relations have September 2019. In this case, it developed significantly since is expected that the activities of the early 2000s, especially in China-based companies in Iraq the economic field. Economic will increase in the coming peri- relations reached an unprece- ods as part of the reconstruction dented level during Kadhimi’s and strengthening of Iraq’s infra- Since the priorities term in office. China’s policy in structure. of the Chinese Iraq should be understood as Just like former Prime Minis- administration an extension of its foreign policy ter Abdul-Mahdi, Prime Minister in the region are vision, which it also implements Kadhimi welcomes China’s inter- in some Latin American and limited to the fields est in the Middle East oil market Gulf countries. China’s interna- of economy and and sees China as an import- tional lending strategy is called energy, it is in a ant partner for Iraq’s economic a “debt-driven foreign policy” more advantageous development. For this reason, by some analysts.17 With this position than other China’s oil purchase from Iraq, strategy, China makes prepaid global actors in which has been on the rise in oil deals with oil-rich countries recent years, has reached a re- maintaining stable through state-controlled banks cord of 7 million tons per month relations with Iraq. and investors, while providing in 202018, making Iraq the third financial aid to these countries largest oil supplier to China.19 and purchasing cheaper oil. In- Chinese state-owned ZhenHua deed, in times of recession and Oil Company won the tender of crisis in Iraq’s oil-based econ- the Iraqi state-owned oil mar- omy in recent years, there has keting company and reached been a need for the flow of in- a five-year deal worth billions vestment and money that China of dollars.20 According to the can provide. agreement, ZhenHua commits Regardless of the upheavals to buying four million barrels in Iraqi domestic politics and of oil per month from Iraq over the government changes, the five years, making a payment of Iraqi administration welcomed $2 billion in advance. Given the

17 Mark Green, “China’s Debt Diplomacy”, Foreign Policy, 2019, Accessed on January 6, 2021. 18 Laura Hurst et al., “China Set To Bail Out Iraq With Multibillion-Dollar Oil Deal”, Bloomberg, 2020, Accessed on January 6, 2021. 19 Simon Martelli, Maryelle Demongeot and Dawn Lee, “Iraq: Indebted To China”, Energy Intelligence, 2020, Accessed on January 7, 2021. 20 Salma El-Wardany, “Iraq Picks Chinese Firm for $2 Billion Oil Prepayment Deal”, Bloomberg, 2021, Accessed on January 7, 2021.

20 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

decline in oil demand in markets due to the the region. Joe Biden, referred to as the heir global coronavirus pandemic and the fragile to the Obama administration, is expected to nature of the Iraqi economy, China acts as a appoint key names of American foreign poli- lifeline for the Iraqi economy with this oil deal. cy of the period 2008-2016, or names with the As a result of this agreement, China has both vision of those names, to the new adminis- signaled that its economic cooperation with tration. This group considers that the Middle Iraq will be a long-term one and guaranteed East, Europe and Africa regions are of sec- to buy a significant amount of Iraqi oil cheap- ondary importance and believes that military, ly through an advance payment. In the short political, diplomatic and economic resources term, there does not seem to be an obstacle should be concentrated in the southeast and to the continuation of the China-Iraq cooper- East Asian regions.21 In addition, although Chi- ation with the momentum it has gained. Since na’s strengthening of economic relations with the priorities of the Chinese administration in Iraq has played an important role in Baghdad’s the region are limited to the fields of economy economic survival, China has traditionally had and energy, it is in a more advantageous po- a low profile in the region and remained timid, sition than other global actors in maintaining especially on security and military issues. In stable relations with Iraq. Therefore, it is possi- other words, it is predictable that the USA will ble to say that the administrative changes that not be an alternative to Chinese investment will take place in Iraq in the near future will not due to the international economic and polit- greatly affect China’s approach towards Iraq. ical priorities of the USA, and the economic Although there are rumors that the elections focus of China’s presence in Iraq. This, in turn, will be postponed in Iraq, the government that indicates an increase in China-Iraq economic will be formed after the parliamentary elec- cooperation in the coming years. tions scheduled for June 6, 2021, is likely to need Chinese investment to keep Iraq’s econ- Secondly, and alternatively, an increase in omy alive and to want to maintain economic American investment in Iraq can be observed relations with China. In the same way, tensions when the Biden administration comes to pow- between the two countries are not expected er. President Biden may concentrate the in- to affect China’s priorities in the region unless vestment power of European countries in Iraq the US-Iran conflict turns into a hot conflict -af and the Middle East to balance the Chinese fecting the whole region. economic power by revitalizing the Atlantic alliance that had been weakened under the Considering both the economic focus of Trump administration. At this stage, the eco- China’s presence and the priorities of the USA nomic activities of European countries in the in the region, the US administration has two region may gain momentum with the grow- possible expectations for the acceleration of ing US leadership. The most important signs China-Iraq relations. of such a future are the French President Em- Firstly, the incoming Biden administration manuel Macron’s visit to Iraq and the award of can be expected to take no preventive stance the reconstruction tender of Mosul Airport to against the increasing Chinese influence in French companies.22 In short, the US adminis-

21 This stance, which came to the forefront in the second term of President Obama, has been mentioned in the literature as Obama’s “Asian Pivot”. See: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-american-pivot-to-asia/ 22 John Lee, “French Firm Approved to Rehabilitate Mosul Airport”, Iraq Business News, 2020, Accessed on January 7, 2021.

www.orsam.org.tr 21 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

tration may deepen the econom- ernment, albeit small. Indeed, ic dimension of China-US rivalry contacts between the ministries in the near future by redefining of the two countries increased the historic Atlantic alliance sys- in 2020 compared to previous tem and mobilizing the capital of years, and progress was made European countries for the Mid- in cooperation between Iraq and dle East. Such an attitude could Russia, particularly in the military lead the Iraqi administration to field.24 rethink the steps it has taken on Correspondingly, Iraqi For- relations with China and to bal- eign Minister Fuad Hussein and ance Chinese dependence with his Russian counterpart Sergey European and US capital.23 The reactions to Abdul-Mahdi’s visit Lavrov met in Moscow on No- Indeed, contacts to China in Iraqi domestic poli- vember 25, 2020. During the between the tics and the claims that the Ab- talks, the two countries’ atti- ministries of the dul-Mahdi government resigned tudes towards problems in the two countries because of this visit indicate the region and steps to be taken to increased in 2020 presence of groups in Iraq who improve bilateral relations were compared to are positive towards this search discussed. After the talks, both previous years, and for balance. ministers stated that cooper- progress was made ation on oil sales and military IRAQ-RUSSIA in cooperation technology sharing would be RELATIONS between Iraq and improved. Both Hussein and Russia, particularly Relations between Russia Lavrov stated that they were in favor of diplomatic and political in the military field. and Iraq were strengthened during the years of the fight means to improve bilateral rela- against the terrorist organization tions, as well as to solve prob- ISIS, and different Iraqi govern- lems in the region. At the end of ments attached importance to the negotiations, an agreement Russia’s role in clearing ISIS from was reached to sign 14 agree- the region. In recent years, rela- ments in 2021 in the fields of tions between the two countries education, health, oil trade and have expanded and there have transportation that would sup- been developments in the eco- port the cooperation between nomic and military fields. There the two countries. It is predicted are indications that this cooper- that these agreements will make ation has an opportunity to de- it easier for Russian companies velop during the Kadhimi gov- to invest in Iraq.

23 At this point, it should be noted that China will continue to be the biggest actor in the oil markets according to the industrial and economic growth projections today, and the steps to be taken by the rival countries will not decrease China’s interest in Iraqi oil. However, the steps taken by the North Atlantic alliance in the near future may lead to a more balanced Iraq-China economic cooperation. 24 “Foreign Minister Sergey ’Lavrov’s remarks and answers to media questions at a joint news conference following talks with Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Iraq Fuad Hussein, Moscow, November 25, 2020”, The Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Of The Russian Federation, 2020, Accessed on January 8, 2021.

22 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir

As for ensuring Iraq’s internal security, For- tions after the last visit, it would be wrong to eign Minister Lavrov announced that Russia say that Russia can carry its political invest- supported steps taken by the Kadhimi governments in Iraq beyond the current level. The ment to bring stability to Iraq and neutralize presence of Iran and the USA on the territory radical terrorist elements. Lavrov even stated of Iraq and the tensions between these two that they were ready to meet any demand for countries leave Russia no room for action Russian-made military products to meet the worth its political and military investments. needs of Iraqi security forces in this fight. In Therefore, outside the economic sphere, co- connection with this, it was announced that Iraqi Defense Minister Jumaah Enad would operation between Iraq and Russia seems visit Russia in the near term to coordinate to be limited, especially to sales of weapons the necessary needs. On the other hand, an and military technology, military training and agreement was reached on the continuation intelligence sharing.25 Russia must restrict its of the activities such as training Iraqi security military activities in the region, especially due forces and sharing intelligence between the to its presence in Syria. In other words, the fu- two countries, which began in previous years ture of Russia’s political and military activities for the fight against ISIS. in Iraq does not seem to be set to evolve as an Although both ministers wish to increase alternative to the Iranian or US presence in the the opportunities to develop bilateral rela- region in the near term.

25 Matthew Bodner, “What was Russia’s Putin up to After the Death Of Iran’s Soleimani?”, Defense News, 2020, Accessed on January 5, 2021

www.orsam.org.tr 23 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277

CONCLUSION AND EXPECTATIONS will lead to different approaches on a global FOR 2O21 and regional basis for Iraq. Within the framework of the above-men- The attitude of the new US administration tioned developments and principles, it can will be decisive in the future of China-Iraq be suggested that Prime Minister Mustafa relations. China’s need for Iraqi oil will not al-Kadhimi will try to maintain the balance decrease anytime soon, and Iraq’s need for adopted in foreign policy and the approach Chinese investment is critical for its fragile of not being a party to any axis until the ear- economy. At this point, how much the Biden ly elections to be held on June 6, 2021. The administration will care about the Middle East most important issue that can force Mustafa dimension of the China-USA rivalry will be deal-Kadhimi to implement such a foreign policy cisive. President Biden’s mobilization of the approach will be the re-escalation of US-Irani- capital of North Atlantic allies for this purpose an tension. Because the assassination of Qa- will have a positive effect on the Iraqi admin- sem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis istration’s balancing of Chinese dependence by the USA on January 3, 2020, and installa- without eliminating the Chinese alternative for tion of air defense systems on bases where Iraq. its troops are stationed and at the Baghdad For 2021 and the short-term future, it can embassy, without consulting the Iraqi author- be said that the potential has been reached ities, have shown that the United States acts in Russia-Iraq relations, which both sides are unilaterally in its security policies in Iraq. Sim- satisfied with. It would not be right to say that ilarly, Iranian-linked militia groups in Iraq have Russia’s political and economic activity in Iraq carried out rocket attacks throughout the year will go beyond the level achieved in 2020 in targeting the U.S. military presence in the the coming year. This is due to the fact that country. Although Prime Minister al-Kadhimi, the investments of other major actors in the who found support from both the United region in Iraq are far more extensive than Rus- States and Iran in the process of forming a sia, and Russia’s influence in Iraq is limited. government, stated that he would not allow Iraq to be an area where regional actors have On the other hand, it may be possible that a reckoning with each other, the initiatives in Iraq will continue its cooperation efforts with this regard seem to be in the hands of the Arab countries. Likewise, it is possible that USA and Iran, which have significant influence Iraq will continue its balance policy and pur- and power in the country. Hence, preventing sue cooperation with neighboring countries. It US unilateralism on the one hand, and pre- can be expected that Iraq will continue to take venting Iran from intervening in Iraq’s internal steps towards creating a balanced relation- affairs with various mechanisms, especially ship, particularly in relations with Saudi Arabia through militia forces, on the other hand, will and Iran. Plans for a High-Level Strategic Co- constitute Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s most import- operation Council meeting between Turkey ant challenge in 2021. In this sense, it seems and Iraq, the last of which was held in Bagh- possible for Iraq to continue its foreign policy dad in January 2017, to be held in Iraq again approach based on balance and cooperation in 2021, could re-accelerate a development of in 2021. It can be expected that this balance Turkey-Iraq relations.

24 www.orsam.org.tr www.orsam.org.tr orsamorgtr