ANALYSIS 277 January 2021 IRAQ ASSESSMENT 2020: FOREIGN POLICY AND EXPECTATIONS FOR 2021 SALIH BERKE ŞENDAĞ I ALPER CEZMI ÖZDEMIR ANALYSISANALİZ Konu Başlığı JanuaryOcak 2021 2021 26 277 Copyright Ankara - TURKEY ORSAM © 2021 Content of this publication is copyrighted to ORSAM. Except reasonable and partial quotation and use under the Act No. 5846, Law on Intellectual and Artistic Works, via proper citation, the content may not be used or re-published without prior permission by ORSAM. The views expressed in this publication reflect only the opinions of its authors and do not represent the institutional opinion of ORSAM. Publication Date: 10 February 2021 Center for Middle Eastern Studies Adress : Mustafa Kemal Mah. 2128 Sk. No: 3 Çankaya, ANKARA Phone : +90 850 888 15 20 Email : [email protected] Photos : Anadolu Agency (AA) According to the second paragraph of Article 5 of the Regulation on Banderole Application Procedures and Principles, the use of banderole for this publication is not compulsory. ANALYSIS 277 January 2021 IRAQ ASSESSMENT 2020: FOREIGN POLICY AND EXPECTATIONS FOR 2021 About the Authors Salih Berke Şendağ Salih Berke Sendag graduated from the Middle East Technical University (METU) and the State University of New York (SUNY Binghamton) with a dual Bachelor of Arts degree in Global Politics and International Relations in 2019. In the same year, he began a master’s degree programme (with thesis) in Middle East Studies at the Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Social Sciences. He is cur- rently working as a research assistant in the Department of Iraq Studies at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM). His general areas of interest include national identity building in the Middle East, political Islam, and US-Middle East relations. Alper Cezmi Özdemir Alper Cezmi Özdemir earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science and International Relations from Bahçeşehir University. At the same time, he completed his minor studies in the Department of Sociology. Between 2017 and 2019, he worked as a research assistant at the Center of Migration and Urban Studies of Bahçeşehir University (BAUMUS). At BAUMUS, he was involved in research on Syrian refugees in Turkey and the Turkish refugee regime. He completed his postgraduate studies in International Relations at the University of Chicago, where he went as a Fulbright Scholar in 2020. While in Chicago, he was involved in academic projects on the propaganda strategies of militant organisations such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda at the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST). He is currently working as a research assistant in the Department of Iraq Studies at ORSAM. CONTENTS 5 INTRODUCTION 6 FOREIGN POLICY: SOVEREIGNTY, BALANCE AND COOPERATION 8 IRAQ-IRAN RELATIONS 10 IRAQ-US RELATIONS 13 TURKEY-IRAQ RELATIONS 15 IRAQ’S RELATIONS WITH THE GULF STATES AND THE ARAB WORLD 18 IRAQ-EUROPEAN UNION RELATIONS 20 IRAQ-CHINA RELATIONS 22 IRAQ-RUSSIA RELATIONS 24 CONCLUSION AND EXPECTATIONS FOR 2O21 INTRODUCTION ustafa al-Kadhimi, who became the lands and Belgium. Considering the effects fifth Prime Minister of Iraq in the post- of the current coronavirus pandemic, the fact M 2005 period, after forming the gov- that Prime Minister al-Kadhimi and his Minis- ernment on May 6, 2020, showed that Iraqi ters visited 15 different countries in a span of foreign policy would be built upon three basic eight months, clearly demonstrates that the principles as laid out in the government pro- Iraqi government pursues an active foreign gramme submitted to the Parliament: “sover- policy and diplomacy. eignty, balance and cooperation”. According- In fact, following the formation of the new ly, Prime Minister al-Kadhimi, during the first government, Baghdad became a popular eight months of his tenure, made diplomatic stop for many Foreign Ministers in the Middle visits to Iran, the USA, Jordan, France, Ger- East. Within eight months, the Foreign Minis- many, the United Kingdom and Turkey, re- ters of Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Finland, spectively, and concluded 2020 with another France, and Greece paid visits to Baghdad, visit to Jordan and met with King Abdullah. not to mention the high-profile visits of Egyp- In the meantime, Foreign Minister Fuad Hus- tian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and sein, Minister of Finance Ali Allawi, Minister French President Emmanuel Macron. During of Oil Ihsan Abdul Jabbar and Head of Hashd the same period, Iraqi diplomats placed equal al-Shaabi Council, Faleh al-Fayyad, and other importance on communication with region- high-profile people, engaged in intense diplo- al and global supra-state actors in addition macy and visited, in addition to the aforemen- to interstate relations. For instance, Foreign tioned countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Minister Fuad Hussein met with Jens Stolten- Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, Russia, the Nether- berg, the NATO Secretary General, and Josep www.orsam.org.tr 5 ANALYSIS Iraq Assessment 2020: Foreign Policy and Expectations for 2021 January 2021 277 Borrell, Vice President of the European Com- FOREIGN POLICY: SOVEREIGNTY, mission, and the High Representative of the BALANCE AND COOPERATION Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy in As explained in the government pro- Belgium and paid a visit to Egypt to meet with gramme approved on May 6, 2020, the Prime Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Secretary General of Minister promised that the foreign policy the Arab League. He also had a meeting with would be based on the principles of “sover- Dr. Nayef Falah M. Al-Hajraf, the Secretary eignty, balance and cooperation”. The Prime General of the Cooperation Council for the Minister paid special attention to the principle Arab States of the Gulf, in addition to bilateral of sovereignty and constantly emphasized meetings with the Foreign Ministers of Oman, in his press conferences that the sovereign- Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and South Korea during ty rights would be their red line. Indeed, the the same summit. government programme approved in the Prime Minister al-Kadhimi and his min- parliament states that Iraqi lands cannot be isters usually focused on the ongoing fight used as a battlefield for global wars and that against ISIS, the coronavirus pandemic, fall- Iraqi lands cannot be used for any attack on ing Brent oil prices, the financial recession and any neighboring country.1 The fact that Iraq other problems affecting Iraq and the regional became the basis of escalating tensions be- conjecture. During his meetings with his Eu- tween the USA and Iran in late 2019 and ear- ropean peers, al-Kadhimi praised Germany, ly 2020, and how these two countries com- France and the United Kingdom, all a part of pletely ignored the sovereignty of Iraq, makes the International Coalition, for their support to the great importance the new government Iraq in the fight against ISIS and encouraged attaches to the sovereignty in foreign policy those countries to invest in Iraq. During his even more meaningful. European tour, Al-Kadhimi shared the details Balance, which is another foreign policy of his economic reform plan with European principle, implies that Iraq refuses to position investors and public. In a similar manner, al- itself according to any regional or internation- Kadhimi thanked Iran and the USA for their ef- al axis and that the country is committed to forts against ISIS and expressed his desire for building positive and constructive relations stronger relations with them. Especially, the with the whole world, particularly Muslim dialogues ongoing with the important players countries, and the neighbouring Arab coun- of Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia for tries. In this way, it was thought that the princi- oil and energy, raise the question whether the ple of balance in foreign policy making would policy of balance adopted by Iraq is now be- pave the way for the cooperation factor, and it ing tipped in favor of the Arab world. Never- was stated that Iraq aimed to cooperate with theless, since the fight against ISIS is not over all international actors in accordance with yet, security issues are still at the forefront of common interests, regardless of any axis. any discussions Iraqi politicians have with for- eign players. Despite this fact, it is noteworthy The foreign policy principles followed by that the al-Kadhimi government opted for an the Kadhimi government are largely consis- economic diplomacy to encourage invest- tent with the foreign policy principles adopted ment in Iraq’s oil and energy areas during their by the governments of Adil Abdul-Mahdi and meetings. Haider al-Abadi, the predecessors of Musta- 1 “Iraq’s Parliament Approves Government Programme”, Government of Iraq, 2020. 6 www.orsam.org.tr Salih Berke Şendağ I Alper Cezmi Özdemir fa al-Kadhimi. Indeed, ’Haider rights for nearly fifteen years as al-Abadi took steps to reposition a journalist and editor, and thus Iraqi foreign policy after al-Mali- had the chance to personally ki’s term in office; he stated that observe and analyze the change they would pursue a policy of in Iraqi foreign policy after the not being part of any axis or al- Maliki era. Indeed, in some of liances in the Middle East, and the articles he wrote on Al-Mon- in this direction, he committed itor during his term, Mustafa al- to developing close relations Kadhimi criticized the foreign with Iraq’s neighbors and part- policy approach based on the ners, especially the Arab coun- personal feelings of the political The foreign tries. Both Haider al-Abadi and elites and strongly opposed the policy principles Adil Abdul-Mahdi declared that axis politics.2 During the same followed by they could not accept any threat period, Kadhimi stressed that “in the Kadhimi of attack on Iran from Iraqi ter- order for Iraq to become an im- government ritory, and neighboring Iran is portant actor in the international are largely an indispensable partner for arena, it should pursue a policy consistent with Iraq.