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Telecommunications/Software & IT Services Telecommunications/Software & IT Services UK Mid -Cap Networking/communications: three stocks to watch 22 June 2021 Bharath Nagaraj Analyst +44 20 3753 3044 [email protected] Benjamin May Analyst +44 20 3465 2667 [email protected] Edward James, CFA Analyst +44 20 3207 7811 [email protected] Sean Thapar Analyst +44 20 3465 2657 [email protected] ATLAS ALPHA • THOUGHT LEADERSHIP • ACCESS • SERVICE UK Mid Cap Telecommunications/Software & IT Services THE TEAM Bharath Nagaraj joined the UK Mid-Cap team at Berenberg in September 2020. He has seven years of sell-side and buy-side experience, after starting off his career at Hewlett- Packard as a system software engineer. Bharath has a master’s in finance with a distinction from London Business School and a master’s in financial engineering from the National University of Singapore. He has also completed CFA level II. Benjamin May joined Berenberg in 2012 and has helped build the UK mid-cap equity research team. He currently leads the mid-cap TMT product, which was ranked top five in Extel's investment survey in 2017 and 2018. Ben has previous experience at Berenberg, working in the telecommunications and economics research teams. Prior to this, Ben gained some strategy consultancy experience. Ben was a Santander Scholar at UCL, where he gained a distinction in his MSc management degree. He also holds a BSc from Warwick University. Edward James joined the UK Mid-Cap team at Berenberg in July 2016 from Aviva Investors, where he worked for two years in investment risk. Edward gained a Bcom (Hons) with Distinction in Financial Analysis & Portfolio Management, and a BSc in Property Investment majoring in Economics from the University of Cape Town. Edward is also CFA charter holder. Sean Thapar joined the UK mid-cap team at Berenberg in January 2018. He was previously an equity analyst at private client investment manager Killik & Co. Sean gained a BA (Hons) degree in Politics from Nottingham Trent University and is currently a CFA level III candidate. For our disclosures in respect of Article 20 of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation - MAR) and our disclaimer please see the end of this document. Please note that the use of this research report is subject to the conditions and restrictions set forth in the disclosures and the disclaimer at the end of this document. UK Mid Cap Telecommunications/Software & IT Services Table of contents Networking/communications: three stocks to watch 4 Companies Spirent Communications plc (SPT LN) 5 dotdigital Group plc (DOTD LN) 51 CentralNic Group plc (CNIC LN) 92 3 UK Mid Cap Telecommunications/Software & IT Services Networking/communications: three stocks to watch ● Summary: We launch coverage of our seventh mid-cap TMT vertical, networking BUY Spirent and communications (N&C). While we have Buy ratings on the three stocks in (Initiation) question, Spirent, dotdigital and CentralNic, they are very different. What does connect them, however, is their top-three positions in niche and highly technical Price target GBp 310 markets. We think all three stocks are often overlooked because they are viewed as Current price GBp 240 21/06/2021 London Close cyclical, too expensive or too small. In this note we challenge these preconceptions and place our base-case price targets 30-120% above current share price levels. BUY dotdigital ● Spirent (Buy, PT 310p – c30% upside): Spirent is a global leader in test and (Initiation) assurance solutions for the telecoms market, offering products and solutions that are used to test, assure and secure high-speed ethernet and internet protocols Price target GBp 290 (IPs), mobile networks, clouds, devices and applications. Given the complexity of Current price GBp 217 21/06/2021 London Close its services and the historical cyclicality of the business (linked to telecoms operators’ capex cycles), it has often been ignored by investors. However, there are BUY CentralNic reasons now to be more bullish, not least because the company is experiencing 5G (Initiation) rollout tailwinds, but it also has: 1) a new management team; 2) a new strategic focus powering a rapid shift towards recurring revenue; and 3) a new business mix Price target GBp 180 with far less dependence on volatile device testing. With a long-term outlook for Current price GBp 82 stable and predictable growth and short-term upside from the fact that Q1 5G deal 21/06/2021 London Close volumes were annualising far above our FY 2021 estimates, plus the attempted acquisition of the company’s peer EXFO Inc for a multiple significantly higher than Spirent’s, we still see upside ahead. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and 310p price target, indicating c30% upside. ● dotdigital (Buy, PT 290p – c35% upside): dotdigital is a mid-market leader in cloud-based marketing automation software (MarTech), serving both B2B and B2C customers. Users can connect customer data, gather powerful insights, and automate personalised marketing campaigns via email, SMS, live chat, and more. With dotdigital continuing to invest in building out an omni-channel marketing platform and a unified customer data view, we see considerable scope for upselling to customers. Through a mixture of greater upsell rates and faster client acquisition by the company’s key strategic partners (eg Adobe’s Magento, Shopify, Microsoft Dynamics, and Salesforce), we see a scenario where EPS could be 50% higher by FY 2024E. With a c40% ROCE and FCF having compounded at a 25% CAGR in recent years, we are not surprised by the stock’s high valuation. Nevertheless, given the rapid consolidation in the MarTech industry at multiples far in excess of dotdigital’s, we still see scope for the shares to perform. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a c290p price target, indicating c35% upside. ● CentralNic (Buy, PT 180p – c120% upside): CentralNic is a global wholesale and retail supplier of domain names that also provides online monetisation solutions to B2B clients. With 99% SaaS-based recurring revenue, CentralNic is opting to use its highly visible FCF to consolidate what is currently a fragmented market. With a new business unit that offers potential for substantial organic growth, which we think has been largely overlooked by the market, we see scope for outperformance. Given that the business remains unknown to many investors, its c10x P/E valuation is also highly attractive despite its market opportunity. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a c180p price target, indicating c120% upside. ● Valuation: The valuations of the three names are very different, with dotdigital, Spirent and CentralNic trading on a one-year forward P/E of c59x/22x/10x and a c1%/5%/9% FCF yield respectively. CentralNic is the clear outlier, in our view, given its growth potential and valuation. 22 June 2021 Bharath Nagaraj Benjamin May Edward James, CFA Sean Thapar Analyst Analyst Analyst Analyst +44 20 3753 3044 +44 20 3465 2667 +44 20 3207 7811 +44 20 3465 2657 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Spirent Communications plc (SPT LN) UK Mid-Cap – Telecommunications A strategic transformation ● Summary: Spirent is a global leader in test and assurance solutions for the 22 June 2021 telecoms market, and offers products and solutions that are used to test, assure and secure high-speed ethernet and internet protocols (IPs), mobile networks, clouds, devices and applications. We forecast mid- BUY (Initiation) single-digit earnings growth for the coming years, but note that this could be meaningfully higher if 5G-related tailwinds play out as we think is Current price Price target possible. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and 310p price target. GBp 240 GBp 310 ● 5G and cloud tailwinds: We expect exponential increases in network complexity to usher in a major growth cycle for Spirent, driven by the 21/06/2021 London Close evolution of 5G combined with an insatiable demand for higher-speed Market cap (GBP -) 1,463 ethernet from the proliferation of public clouds. Early rollouts of lower- Reuters SPT.L speed 5G networks (non-standalone) have been lacklustre in driving Bloomberg SPT LN customer adoption. Carriers are therefore accelerating the buildout of faster standalone 5G networks to offer a more differentiated experience to Share data end-users. We expect momentum to pick up in 2022-23, though possibly Shares outstanding (m) 610 with some delays due to the global chip shortage. On a multi-year view, Enterprise value (GBP -) 1,324 this should still act as a tailwind to Spirent and could well drive growth Daily trading volume 1,734,000 significantly ahead of the single-digit rate we assume in our base case. ● Top vendor with high-barriers to entry: Suppliers of network testing such Key data as Spirent are deeply entrenched in customer operations, given their Price/book value 5.3 relevance to client business planning. With carriers preferring to deal with Net gearing -45.7% a limited number of larger testing suppliers also, this creates high barriers CAGR sales 2021-2023 4.9% to entry. It does, however, create an elongated 6-18 month sales cycle that CAGR EPS 2021-2023 7.1% involves a complex proof-of-concept process. In short, it pays to have scale and resources in this market, and Spirent has both. By also offering a number of products that are superior to peers’, Spirent is definitely a top-three (if not top-two) vendor globally. We are therefore not surprised by its industry-leading c40% ROCE. ● Lower cyclicality and higher revenue visibility: Spirent used to be more cyclical than it is today because: 1) its volatile device-testing business was a larger component of revenues; and 2) its high-speed ethernet testing revenues were dependent on the capex cycle of a select few big- customers.
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