Budget 2011-2012
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BUDGET STRATEGY AND OUTLOOK BUDGET PAPER NO. 1 2011-12 CIRCULATED BY THE HONOURABLE WAYNE SWAN MP DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND TREASURER OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA AND SENATOR THE HONOURABLE PENNY WONG MINISTER FOR FINANCE AND DEREGULATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA FOR THE INFORMATION OF HONOURABLE MEMBERS ON THE OCCASION OF THE BUDGET 2011-12 10 MAY 2011 ISBN 978-0-642-74687-0 Ownership of intellectual property rights in this publication Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia (referred to below as the Commonwealth). Creative Commons licence With the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms (see below); the Budget logo; Statement 1: Budget Overview; Statement 2: Economic Outlook; Statement 3: Fiscal Strategy and Outlook; Statement 4: Opportunities and Challenges of an Economy in Transition, Statement 7: Asset and Liability Management, all material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided that you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en. The full licence terms are available from http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. The Commonwealth's preference is that you attribute this publication (and any material sourced from it) using the following wording: Publication Title: 2011-12 Australian Government Budget — Budget Paper No. 1. Source: Licensed from the Commonwealth of Australia under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence The Commonwealth of Australia does not necessarily endorse the content of this publication. Use of the Coat of Arms The terms under which the Coat of Arms can be used are set out on the It's an Honour website (see www.itsanhonour.gov.au). Contact us Inquiries regarding the licence and any use of this document are welcome at: The Manager Communications Unit Ministerial and Communications Division Treasury Langton Crescent PARKES ACT 2600 Email: [email protected] Internet The Commonwealth Budget Papers and Budget related information are available on the central Budget website at: www.budget.gov.au Printed by CanPrint Communications Pty Ltd Notes (a) The following definitions are used in this Budget Paper: – ‘real’ means adjusted for the effect of inflation; – real growth in expenses and payments is calculated using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the deflator; – the Budget year refers to 2011-12, while the forward years refer to 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15; and – one billion is equal to one thousand million. (b) Figures in tables and generally in the text have been rounded. Discrepancies in tables between totals and sums of components are due to rounding: – estimates under $100,000 are rounded to the nearest thousand; – estimates $100,000 and over are generally rounded to the nearest tenth of a million; – estimates midway between rounding points are rounded up; and – the percentage changes in statistical tables are calculated using unrounded data. (c) For the budget balance, a negative sign indicates a deficit while no sign indicates a surplus. (d) The following notations are used: NEC/nec not elsewhere classified - nil na not applicable (unless otherwise specified) (e) estimates (unless otherwise specified) (p) projections (unless otherwise specified) $m $ million $b $ billion iii (e) The Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory are referred to as ‘the Territories’. References to the ‘States’ or ‘each State’ include the Territories. The following abbreviations are used for the names of the States, where appropriate: NSW New South Wales VIC Victoria QLD Queensland WA Western Australia SA South Australia TAS Tasmania ACT Australian Capital Territory NT Northern Territory (f) In this paper the term Commonwealth refers to the Commonwealth of Australia. The term is used when referring to the legal entity of the Commonwealth of Australia. The term Australian Government is used when referring to the Government and the decisions and activities made by the Government on behalf of the Commonwealth of Australia. Budget Paper No. 1: Budget Strategy and Outlook 2011-12 is one of a series of Budget Papers that provides information to supplement the Budget Speech. A full list of the series is printed on the inside cover of this paper. iv CONTENTS STATEMENT 1: BUDGET OVERVIEW .................................................................. 1-1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1-5 Economic outlook ......................................................................................................... 1-6 Fiscal strategy and outlook .......................................................................................... 1-9 Budget priorities ......................................................................................................... 1-13 Building Australia’s future workforce .......................................................................... 1-14 Infrastructure — expanding our productive capacity .................................................. 1-21 Making mental health a national priority .................................................................... 1-23 New investments in hospitals and health services ..................................................... 1-26 Making every school a great school ........................................................................... 1-27 Supporting families — helping with costs of living ..................................................... 1-29 Supporting small businesses and manufacturing ...................................................... 1-31 Improving the integrity and fairness of the tax system — tax reform ......................... 1-31 Sustainable communities ........................................................................................... 1-32 Climate change — moving to a clean energy future .................................................. 1-33 Rebuilding communities affected by natural disasters ............................................... 1-34 Continuing our commitment to national security ........................................................ 1-36 STATEMENT 2: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................... 2-1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 2-3 The outlook for the international economy ................................................................. 2-11 The outlook for the domestic economy ...................................................................... 2-16 STATEMENT 3: FISCAL STRATEGY AND OUTLOOK ............................................ 3-1 Overview of fiscal position ............................................................................................ 3-3 Fiscal outlook ............................................................................................................. 3-15 Appendix A: Sensitivity of Budget Estimates to economic developments ................. 3-26 v STATEMENT 4: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES OF AN ECONOMY IN TRANSITION ..................................................................................................... 4-1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 4-3 The Asian century and the changing structure of Australia’s economy ....................... 4-4 Things to come: the mining boom and beyond .......................................................... 4-17 Laying the groundwork for transition while managing the boom ................................ 4-29 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 4-36 References ................................................................................................................. 4-37 STATEMENT 5: REVENUE ................................................................................. 5-1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 5-3 Weaker tax receipts in the near term ........................................................................... 5-5 Longer term recovery in tax receipts .......................................................................... 5-10 Variations in the receipts estimates since the 2010-11 Budget ................................. 5-16 Revenue variations since MYEFO ............................................................................. 5-23 Revenue estimates by revenue head ........................................................................ 5-24 Appendix A: Revenue and receipts forward estimates .............................................. 5-35 Appendix B: Changes since 2010-11 MYEFO ........................................................... 5-37 Appendix C: Revenue and receipts history and forecasts ......................................... 5-41 Appendix D: Forecast methodology and performance ............................................... 5-48 Appendix E: Taxation revenue recognition ...............................................................