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IDENTIFYING FISCAL SPACE Options for Social and Economic Development for Children

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IDENTIFYING FISCAL SPACE Options for Social and Economic Development for Children SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY WORKING PAPER IDENTIFYING FISCAL SPACE Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries Isabel Ortiz Jingqing Chai Matthew Cummins December 2011 UNICEF POLICY AND PRACTICE Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1946006 UNICEF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY WORKING PAPER December 2011 Identifying Fiscal Space: Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries © United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), New York, 2011 Policy, Advocacy and Knowledge Management, Division of Policy and Practice UNICEF 3 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017 This is a working document. It has been prepared to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and to stimulate discussion. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF or of the United Nations. The text has not been edited to official publication standards, and UNICEF accepts no responsibility for errors. The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers. The editors of the series are Isabel Ortiz, Jingqing Chai and David Anthony of UNICEF Policy and Practice Division. For more information on the series, or to submit a working paper, please contact [email protected], [email protected] or [email protected]. i Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1946006 IDENTIFYING FISCAL SPACE Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries Isabel Ortiz Associate Director, Policy and Practice, UNICEF Jingqing Chai Chief, Social and Economic Analysis, UNICEF Matthew Cummins Social Policy Specialist, Policy and Practice, UNICEF JEL Classification: F35, H12, H2, H5, H6, H62, H63, I38, O2, O23 Keywords: fiscal space, fiscal consolidation, public expenditures, social spending, crisis recovery, development policy, equity, tax revenues, foreign reserves, official development assistance, government borrowing, debt, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy Comments may be addressed by email to the authors: [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected], cc: [email protected] ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study would not have been possible without substantive comments and contributions from colleagues and partners worldwide. The authors would like to thank the following persons in particular (by alphabetical order): Roberto Benes (Regional Adviser on Social Policy, UNICEF Regional Office for the Middle East and North Africa), Anis Chowdhury (Senior Economic Affairs Officer, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs), Michael Clark (Interregional Adviser, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), Degol Hailu (Economic Policy Advisor, United Nations Development Programme), Gail Hurley (Policy Specialist, United Nations Development Programme), Gabriele Koehler (Visiting Fellow, University of Sussex), Lisa Kurbiel (Senior Social Policy Specialist, UNICEF Mozambique), Fatou Lo (Programme Specialist, United Nations Women), Alberto Minujin (Professor, New School), Oscar Ugarteche (Senior Researcher, National Autonomous University of Mexico), Rolph van der Hoeven (Professor of Employment and Development Economics, Erasmus University), Matías Vernengo (Associate Professor, University of Utah) and Richard Wolff (Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Massachusetts, Amherst). Special thanks also to Richard Morgan, Director of Policy and Practice, UNICEF, for his guidance and comments. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF or of the United Nations. iii Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... vi Résumé Analytique .................................................................................................................... vii Resumen Ejecutivo .................................................................................................................... viii 1. Introduction: Fiscal space exists even in the poorest countries .................................... 1 2. Re-prioritizing Public Sector Spending......................................................................... 5 3. Increasing Tax Revenues ............................................................................................. 8 3.1. Tariffs ............................................................................................................................ 9 3.2. Consumption/sales taxes ........................................................................................... 10 3.3. Income taxes ............................................................................................................... 12 3.4. Corporate taxes .......................................................................................................... 13 3.5. Natural resource extraction taxes .............................................................................. 14 3.6. Other taxes ................................................................................................................. 15 4. Increased Aid and Transfers ...................................................................................... 17 4.1. More North-South transfers: Official Development Assistance (ODA) ...................... 17 4.2. South-South transfers ................................................................................................. 21 4.3. Curtailing South-North transfers ................................................................................ 23 4.4. New international sources of development finance .................................................. 26 5. Using Fiscal and Foreign Exchange Reserves .............................................................. 27 5.1. Fiscal reserves ............................................................................................................. 27 5.2. Central bank foreign exchange reserves .................................................................... 30 6. Borrowing and Debt Restructuring ........................................................................... 32 6.1. Borrowing ................................................................................................................... 33 6.2. Debt restructuring ...................................................................................................... 35 7. A More Accommodating Macroeconomic Framework ............................................... 40 7.1. More accommodative fiscal policy ............................................................................. 40 7.2. More accommodative monetary policy ..................................................................... 42 8. Concluding Remarks ................................................................................................. 45 Annex. Selected Fiscal Space Indicators for 184 Countries ...................................................... 47 References ................................................................................................................................ 52 iv Boxes Box 1. Identifying Fiscal Space: How to use the Annex .................................................................. 3 Box 2. South-South Cooperation in Guinea-Bissau ...................................................................... 22 Box 3. When Resources and Poverty Abound: The Paradox of Timor-Leste ................................ 29 Box 4. Debt Repudiation: Iraq and Iceland ................................................................................... 38 Box 5. Debt Audits: The Case of Ecuador ...................................................................................... 39 Box 6. The Need for an International Debt Work-out Mechanism .............................................. 39 Tables Table 1. Developing Countries that Lowered Income Tax Rates for the Top Income Brackets, 2009 ........ 13 Table 2. Aid Concentration and Neglect, 2005-09 ...................................................................................... 18 Table 3. Net Transfer of Financial Resources to Developing Economies, 1998-2010................................. 24 Table 4. Exporting Illicit Capital and Health Spending in Developing Countries ......................................... 25 Table 5. Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) in Selected Developing Countries, June 2011 ........................... 28 Table 6. Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy by Developing Region, 2011 .............................................. 31 Table 7. Real Fiscal Deficits and Health Spending in 35 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2011 .................. 41 Table 8. Safe Inflation Thresholds for Developing Countries...................................................................... 43 Table 9. Developing Countries with Low Inflation Rates, 2011 forecasts .................................................. 44 Figures Figure 1. Total Government Expenditures in Selected Countries, 2011 ........................................ 2 Figure 2. Military and Health Spending in Selected Developing Countries, 2006-09 ..................... 6 Figure 3. Tariff Rates by Country Income Groupings, 1996-2009 .................................................
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