The Role of International Assessments of Cognitive Skills in the Analysis of Growth and Development
Eric A. Hanushek Stanford University Ludger Woessmann University of Munich, ifo Institute
International Large Scale Assessment Conference Education Testing Service March 2011 Elements of Discussion
• Outcomes of education
• Determinants of education
Hanushek, Eric A., and Ludger Woessmann. "The economics of international differences in educational achievement." In Handbook of the Economics of Education, Vol. 3, edited by Eric A. Hanushek, Stephen Machin, and Ludger Woessmann. Amsterdam: North Holland, 2011: 89-200 Participation in IEA and OECD tests (through 2007)
OECD 20 non-OECD
15
10 Number of countries of Number
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Number of tests participated (1964-2007) Studies of the Economic Consequences of Human Capital
Economic Consequences TOTAL Data individual aggregate source equity earnings outcomes IEA 1 1 2
OECD
Other 6 3 1 10 Combined 13 13
TOTAL 6 4 15 25
Returns to Cognitive Skills (International Adult Literacy Survey)
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05 Switzerland Denmark Norway 0 Netherlands Chile Germany Finland Hungary Sweden Poland Italy Czech US Cognitive Skills and Economic Growth Years of Schooling and Economic Growth
With quality control
Without quality control Growth Projections
• Scenario 1 - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement
60% (1/4 std. dev.)
50%
40%
30%
20% Percent addition to annual annual GDP addition to Percent
10%
0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 Year Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement
60% (1/4 std. dev.)
50%
40%
30%
20% Percent addition to annual annual GDP addition to Percent
10%
0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 Year Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement
60% (1/4 std. dev.)
50%
40%
30%
20% Percent addition to annual annual GDP addition to Percent
10%
0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 Year Growth Projections
• Scenario 1 - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) - PV = 288% of current GDP - $123T for OECD - $43T for United States Growth Projections
• Scenario 1 - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) • Scenario 2 - Everybody Achieves at Level of Finland - PV = 645% of current GDP in OECD - $275T for OECD - $112 trillion for United States Growth Projections
• Scenario 1 - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) • Scenario 2 - Everybody Achieves at Level of Finland • Scenario 3 - All students to 400 points (basic skills) - PV = 530% of current GDP in OECD - $226T for OECD - $86 trillion for United States 560
Trends in Test Japan Japan Korea Scores Korea 540 Finland Netherlands N. Zealand Canada Australia UK
N. Zealand 520 Norway Australia Netherlands Sweden UK France Finland Belgium France 500 Belgium Norway Canada USA Sweden Germany Germany USA 480 Italy
Italy
460 1975 2000 Trends in Growth Rates vs. Trends in Test Scores School Performance in Peru
48 Never enrolled 33 dropout gr 1-5 60 dropout gr 5-9 finish gr 9 w/o basic skills 12 finish gr 9 with basic skills 6
1 Determinants of Human Capital
Determinants of Student Achievement family background Institutions Achieve- Unique Data plus school inputs TOTAL ment equity Studies source within cross- within cross- country country country country IEA 15 2 1 2 1 21 20 OECD 6 4 3 7 2 22 20 Other 2 2 1 5 4
Combined 3 3 4 6 16 16
TOTAL 24 11 6 14 9 64 60
Resources and Performance across Countries Math performance in PISA 2003 550 Finland Japan Korea Netherlands Belgium Canada Switzerland Czech Rep. R 2 = 0.01 Australia IcelandDenmark Sweden France Ireland 500 Slovak Rep. Germany Aust ria Hungary No rway Poland Sp ain USA R 2 = 0.15 Port ugal Italy 450 Greece
400 Mexico
350 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 Cumulative educational expenditure per student Alternative Estimates of Least Effective U.S. Teachers on Student Achievement
1.00
Finland 0.75
0.50 Canada
s.d. performance gain 0.25
0.00 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Percent deselected
high estimate of teacher effectiveness low estimate of teacher effectiveness Central Exams, School Autonomy, and Student Performance
Math 80 76.2 test score 70 60 55.5
50
40
30 23.7 20
10 Yes
0 0.0 Central No exams No Yes School autonomy over teacher salaries TIMSS + TIMSS-R Central Exams, School Autonomy, and Student Performance
Math 80 test score 70 64.1 67.6 60
50
40
30
20 22.7
10 Yes
0 0.0 Central No exams No Yes Teacher influence on resource funding TIMSS + TIMSS-R Issues to be Addressed
Measurement • Reliability at extremes (e.g., Peru) • Intertemporal linkages Causation
• Panel of individuals Economic outcomes
• Labor market results • Further schooling